Do people forget that Daenerys heard Rhaegar say that Aegon is the Prince who was promised?

[John Suburbs]

49 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Now where did that come from? Do I want to ask for explanation or it's just as pointless as before?

 

You missed everything. Or ignored it. You know better, but I can tell you I'm not just throwing the mud around without reasoning.

Looks like you build up your entire idea/theory on this what if. You intend ever backing this up?

Um, no. She literally thinks in one of her ADWD chapters that the house with the red door isn't her real home. 

 

I wasn't ever claiming that. I said that her goals point to the same direction. To Westeros. After so many replies, we still have to argue over something none of us told?

You tell me, while you throw up in the air your idea without any background? After you've been asked to back up what you consider a fact? Come on.

 

So I suppose Ned Stark should've been thrown straight into jail on his first day. At least that's how much sense your idea makes applying it on a different case.

 

Ned's death actually was the little butterfly creating the huge tornado called Wot5K. Quentyn's death will likely make a rivalry between Arianne and Daenerys. Renly's death was also significant because it throw Stannis' character into the river to drown.

So far, I tought you. Sorry if we misunderstood each other because of me.

Gotcha:

As you can see, Viserion did not attack Quentyn when he used the whip on him. Neither was he hurt by him, altough Viserion should've killed him in the very first second. Do you think anyone would survive whipping a dragon, except those who can actually tame them? Actually, I wouldn't wonder if you'd disagree with something that's stated to be an axiom at this point.

Bwfore you were just stating what Denwrys will do. I did suggested many things too, but unlike you, I provided some kind of backup to it.

If you intend to continue throwing the mud around, you shouldn't even answer. I'm honestly tired of these situations, and the sadder part is that I can regularly see you making actual points with logical threads and replys, but not in our conversation.

Let me know if you want to learn the Iron Bank plot. It's a bit off-topic.

I've read your theories and they don't hold. Just like the dragons warmed up to Brown Ben, they should warm to Aegon, if he's genuine. That's the back up, right in the text.

She is questing for the throne because she believes she is entitled to it, just like Stannis and Renly are doing. Where is your backup that she says its her home?

This you?:

Quote

No. Again you're just wrong. She wants the IT because she feels like it's her duty as the last living member of her House, and because she thinks the IT will provide her the home she desired her entire life. She is moved by something entirely different than what moved Renly, for example.

Ned accomplished nothing in the end. He didn't save Robert, he didn't expose the Lannister plot, he didn't even learn why Jon Arryn died. He accomplished nothing, just like Aegon if he dies in the first chapter of Winds. And again, where did I ever say that Aegon will die if he is not a Targ?

No, the war was already on when Ned died. The Lannisters had already invaded the riverlands, the ironmen were already calling their longships, the Tyrells were already gathering at Highgarden. Ned's death brought the north in. Aegon has already brought the GC to Westeros. He has already taken several castles in the stormlands, including possibly Storm's End, and he may very well be the butterfly that finally brings Dany back to Westeros. This is where you and so many others fundamentally misunderstand Martin. He doesn't write characters so they have meaning and purpose to an otherwordly, abstract narrative. He writes characters who are living real lives, making real decisions and encountering real obstacles, including death, as they live out their real, not fictional, lives. It's why it takes him so long to finish a novel, because otherwise he would just contrive any old thing and print it.

Just because he doesn't attack him on sight doesn't mean he's trained. Not even close. You can walk through a pit of alligators and they won't move a muscle. Doesn't mean they are docile. Dany used a whip on him. He knows what it is. What he doesn't know is getting a crossbolt fired into his flesh. And as your text shows, all the whipping and commanding has zero affect on Viserion. He complete ignores Quentyn. So much for training him.

Sorry, but your backup is non-existent. Even the text you quote disproves your points. My text shows that dragons warm to those with Targ blood, and so does yours actually.

 

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, there is no way to disprove a secret Targ theory.

I'm sure you're own pet theories are better 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's that's what you believe, then go with it I guess. I too believe Quent is still alive, but not because he is a Targ but because he is a Martell, descended from the Rhoynar, like Dany.

If Frog is Aegon, then he is a Targ.  But I did say never mind that part.  You did rule out dragon affinity, and I gave you reasons why Frog (Targ or not) may have dragon affinity.  Nettles had unknown heritage, but had dragon affinity.

I'm glad we agree that Frog is alive, but I'm not sure how his Rhoynar heritage necessarily connects to that.

[Rose of Red Lake]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He doesn't write characters so they have meaning and purpose to an otherwordly, abstract narrative. He writes characters who are living real lives, making real decisions and encountering real obstacles, including death, as they live out their real, not fictional, lives.

I agree 100%. This is why have no problem if Jaime ends up dumping Brienne, Dany's journey is pointless, Jon's adopted family matters more than his birth parents, Jon doesn't get to play a big role in the final battle - I mean, all of this is real life. No grand destiny, no guarantee of a "satisfying ending," no dignified deaths, no meaning for someone's journey. GRRM point blank said that he doesn't write comfort fiction as a warning to readers looking for escapism, and yet theories continue to be nice, comfortable, and escapist.

[Daeron the Daring]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I've read your theories and they don't hold. Just like the dragons warmed up to Brown Ben, they should warm to Aegon, if he's genuine. That's the back up, right in the text.

No, because they are currently taking gigantic scales, they can't sit on someone's shoulder anymore, are enwildened and agressive. Not to mention that a Targaryen dragon can kill another Targaryen. They did it many times. They kill other dragons, Targaryens and everyone who gets close to them, has no blood to tame them, or their riders aren't around. We never, I repeat, never got anyone who was able to even approach dragons and survive it, if the said dragon had no connection with the person before and had no Valyrian blood. Never. Do you understand me? 'Simple' (you know how I mean it) people never approached any dragon alone and survived it. With the rider around, they did, otherwise never.

That means that if Drogon will ever feel anyone else, be it dragonrider or not, threatening her, he attacks. No questions. Be it Aegon the Conqueror, nothing changes. And that means that a riderless dragon never lets anyone hit him without consequences? Is it really that hard to understand? 

Also: How my theories aren't holding up? What doesn't hold up? You never attacked anything what I said regarding Aegon. You just said "nah, man, she won't see him as a friend". Several times. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

She is questing for the throne because she believes she is entitled to it, just like Stannis and Renly are doing.

I wasn't comparing her to Stannis for fuck's sake now. And Renly wanted to be king without knowing Cersei's children aren't from Robert, and also before his own brother. How is that not different?

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Where is your backup that she says its her home?

Oh, I can give it to you. I actually do provide backup, unlike you, altough I asked for it several times by now. Here it is: 

Quote

It was good counsel. "Yes, make it so." Westeros. Home. 

Quote

The next morning Dany woke as full of hope as she had been since first she came to Slaver's Bay. Daario would soon be at her side once more, and together they would sail for Westeros. For home.

Quote

"Enough." Dany slapped the table. "No one will be left to die. You are all my people." Her dreams of home and love had blinded her. 

Quote

Oopsie

 

These are only from a single chapter, but here's more:

Quote

Instead she slipped into a hooded robe and stepped out onto her terrace. She went to the parapet and stood there gazing down upon the city as she had done a hundred times before. It will never be my city. It will never be my home.

Quote

Daenerys Targaryen may yet come home one day," Connington told the Halfmaester. "Aegon must be free to marry her."

This is JonCon, but I think this quote is useful in our conversation.

Quote

Dany knew the lure of home.

Two days ago, climbing on a spire of rock, she had spied water to the south, a slender thread that glittered briefly as the sun was going down.

Quote

The day grew warmer, and the sun beat down upon her head and the burnt remnants of her hair. Water splashed against the soles of her feet. She was walking in the stream. How long had she been doing that? The soft brown mud felt good between her toes and helped to soothe her blisters. In the stream or out of it, I must keep walking. Water flows downhill. The stream will take me to the river, and the river will take me home.

Except it wouldn't, not truly.

Quote

Meereen was not her home, and never would be. It was a city of strange men with strange gods and stranger hair, of slavers wrapped in fringed tokars, where grace was earned through whoring, butchery was art, and dog was a delicacy. Meereen would always be the Harpy's city, and Daenerys could not be a harpy.

Quote

Another oopsie.

 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

She is questing for the throne because she believes she is entitled to i

Except she doesn't, but will.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Ned accomplished nothing in the end. He didn't save Robert, he didn't expose the Lannister plot, he didn't even learn why Jon Arryn died. He accomplished nothing, just like Aegon if he dies in the first chapter of Winds.

Nope. The War of the 5 Kings is literally because of his death and how he ended his Handship. Because he didn't help Renly, didn't inform Stannis in time, didn't tell robert the truth, etc. The ironborn gathered because Robb was leaving the North. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And again, where did I ever say that Aegon will die if he is not a Targ?

I'm honestly too lazy to look back at it. If you didn't I was wrong thinking you said it or maent that anywhere.

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, the war was already on when Ned died. The Lannisters had already invaded the riverlands, the ironmen were already calling their longships, the Tyrells were already gathering at Highgarden. Ned's death brought the north in. Aegon has already brought the GC to Westeros. He has already taken several castles in the stormlands, including possibly Storm's End, and he may very well be the butterfly that finally brings Dany back to Westeros. This is where you and so many others fundamentally misunderstand Martin. He doesn't write characters so they have meaning and purpose to an otherwordly, abstract narrative. He writes characters who are living real lives, making real decisions and encountering real obstacles, including death, as they live out their real, not fictional, lives. It's why it takes him so long to finish a novel, because otherwise he would just contrive any old thing and print it.

Are you telling me George writes characters who live real life? That's dumb. He is a good writer because he makes us unable to guess who wears his magical plot armor. In most cases.

Are you telling me you're surrounded IRL with such radical people you see in these books?  Like the so-honorable guy who end up headless, the serial killer dwarf, the bastard psychopath king who end up ruling everything, or the 15 year old boy who lives almost in exile and is the savior of the world, but eventually gets assassinated? Where do you live? Have you ever read anything realist? 

And Aegon was landing on Westeros when the Wot5K was still going on? Whoa.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Just because he doesn't attack him on sight doesn't mean he's trained. Not even close. You can walk through a pit of alligators and they won't move a muscle. Doesn't mean they are docile. Dany used a whip on him. He knows what it is. What he doesn't know is getting a crossbolt fired into his flesh. And as your text shows, all the whipping and commanding has zero affect on Viserion. He complete ignores Quentyn. So much for training him.

I was saying he was about to tame Viserion. Or rather on the very beginning of the process. But you claim something that literally contradicts what's written down and expect people to believe you? 

Daenerys never used a whip on Viserion. Viserion probably never saw a whip before. Nevermind. He really lost interest, because he was looking for her mother. Then Quentyn hit him on the face, and he did nothing but hissing. The dragon didn't attack. It's written down there.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

My text shows that dragons warm to those with Targ blood, and so does yours actually.

These are dragons with a wingspan of at least 10m. What do you expect them to do? Sit on someone's shoulder, or wait for a petting like what Jon did with Drogon? They are wild, chained and locked dragons. 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but your backup is non-existent

First read it. Then provide your own.

Edit: I'm intereted in your Illyrio-Iron Bank theory.

[Son of Man]

The crones thought Rhaego was the promised Dothraki stallion.  They were wrong.  It will be Dany who will unite and bind the khalasars.  Likewise, Rhaegar thought his son is the Prince who was promised and he was wrong.  Dany is the Targaryen prince who was promised. The language of old Valyria is neutral when it comes to gender.  

 

[chrisdaw]

On 4/9/2021 at 5:05 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Dragons were dancing when two were fighting over the Throne (Maegor-Aegon, Aegon-Rhaenyra). The point Daenerys makes with her fairy dream is that she doesn't really have anyone to trust in, but she's sure that she could trust in her own blood, if she ever finds one. And she wants to. Would such a conflict have to end in battle? Not sure why.

Because that's how it is being orchestrated and was foreshadowed since the beginning. Aegon and Dany will fight a second dance, the realm will bleed and Dany will win a short-lived victory.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/10/2021 at 2:47 PM, Mister Smikes said:

I'm sure you're own pet theories are better 

If Frog is Aegon, then he is a Targ.  But I did say never mind that part.  You did rule out dragon affinity, and I gave you reasons why Frog (Targ or not) may have dragon affinity.  Nettles had unknown heritage, but had dragon affinity.

I'm glad we agree that Frog is alive, but I'm not sure how his Rhoynar heritage necessarily connects to that.

So Frog is actually Aegon? Sorry, but I see too many holes here. Doran never acknowledges this fact even as he is preparing to make him Prince of Dorne? Or when he laments sending him halfway around the world? And he also never reveals this to Frog so he could disclose his true identity to Dany when he gets there? And nobody at Sunspear, not Arianne, not Oberyn, none of the Sand Snakes, nobody ever noticed that there was no word of a little baby Quentyn being born, until he is a good year or year-and-a-half old, and suddenly there he is?

Nettles was likely a dragonseed. She came from Driftmark, just a quick sail from Dragonstone and the seat of House Valeryon, who were also Valyrians and who frequently married Targaryens.

I never ruled anything out. We don't see any love between Quent and the dragons, like we do with Brown Ben. ANd there is no reason to think he is a secret Targ, but it's not impossible.

If Frog is alive, then he would obviously have some kind of fire-resistance, like Dany exhibited on the pyre and in the fighting pit. At the same time, we have Martin stating pretty clearly and unequivocally that there is no Targaryen immunity to fire. But think about it. Why would the Varlyrians need to infuse their blood with fire immunity, resistance, whatever, when they are the ones who control the dragons? It would be the ones who are fighting the dragons that would need to do this, and the Rhoynar battled the Vals for two centuries before finally falling, and the Rhoynars were practitioners of water magic. Pour water on flame and it douses it. Soak something in water and it becomes resistant to fire. And then, of course, the Rhoynar made their way to Dorne where Nymeria married into both the Martells, leading directly to Quent, and to Daynes, and both Martells and Daynes later married Targeryens in a direct line that produced Dany. 

 

[John Suburbs]

On 4/10/2021 at 3:04 PM, Rose of Red Lake said:

I agree 100%. This is why have no problem if Jaime ends up dumping Brienne, Dany's journey is pointless, Jon's adopted family matters more than his birth parents, Jon doesn't get to play a big role in the final battle - I mean, all of this is real life. No grand destiny, no guarantee of a "satisfying ending," no dignified deaths, no meaning for someone's journey. GRRM point blank said that he doesn't write comfort fiction as a warning to readers looking for escapism, and yet theories continue to be nice, comfortable, and escapist.

Exactly, if he thought like that the story would have been wrapped up by now with some contrived romantic fairytale ending. Things happened the way they did and Martin struggles to get the books out the way he does because of this unique approach to story-telling. I'm glad that some readers understand this.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/10/2021 at 3:14 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

No, because they are currently taking gigantic scales, they can't sit on someone's shoulder anymore, are enwildened and agressive. Not to mention that a Targaryen dragon can kill another Targaryen. They did it many times. They kill other dragons, Targaryens and everyone who gets close to them, has no blood to tame them, or their riders aren't around. We never, I repeat, never got anyone who was able to even approach dragons and survive it, if the said dragon had no connection with the person before and had no Valyrian blood. Never. Do you understand me? 'Simple' (you know how I mean it) people never approached any dragon alone and survived it. With the rider around, they did, otherwise never.

That means that if Drogon will ever feel anyone else, be it dragonrider or not, threatening her, he attacks. No questions. Be it Aegon the Conqueror, nothing changes. And that means that a riderless dragon never lets anyone hit him without consequences? Is it really that hard to understand? 

Also: How my theories aren't holding up? What doesn't hold up? You never attacked anything what I said regarding Aegon. You just said "nah, man, she won't see him as a friend". Several times. 

I wasn't comparing her to Stannis for fuck's sake now. And Renly wanted to be king without knowing Cersei's children aren't from Robert, and also before his own brother. How is that not different?

Oh, I can give it to you. I actually do provide backup, unlike you, altough I asked for it several times by now. Here it is: 

These are only from a single chapter, but here's more:

This is JonCon, but I think this quote is useful in our conversation.

 

Except she doesn't, but will.

Nope. The War of the 5 Kings is literally because of his death and how he ended his Handship. Because he didn't help Renly, didn't inform Stannis in time, didn't tell robert the truth, etc. The ironborn gathered because Robb was leaving the North. 

I'm honestly too lazy to look back at it. If you didn't I was wrong thinking you said it or maent that anywhere.

 

Are you telling me George writes characters who live real life? That's dumb. He is a good writer because he makes us unable to guess who wears his magical plot armor. In most cases.

Are you telling me you're surrounded IRL with such radical people you see in these books?  Like the so-honorable guy who end up headless, the serial killer dwarf, the bastard psychopath king who end up ruling everything, or the 15 year old boy who lives almost in exile and is the savior of the world, but eventually gets assassinated? Where do you live? Have you ever read anything realist? 

And Aegon was landing on Westeros when the Wot5K was still going on? Whoa.

I was saying he was about to tame Viserion. Or rather on the very beginning of the process. But you claim something that literally contradicts what's written down and expect people to believe you? 

Daenerys never used a whip on Viserion. Viserion probably never saw a whip before. Nevermind. He really lost interest, because he was looking for her mother. Then Quentyn hit him on the face, and he did nothing but hissing. The dragon didn't attack. It's written down there.

These are dragons with a wingspan of at least 10m. What do you expect them to do? Sit on someone's shoulder, or wait for a petting like what Jon did with Drogon? They are wild, chained and locked dragons. 

First read it. Then provide your own.

Edit: I'm intereted in your Illyrio-Iron Bank theory.

They are still the same dragons. If they warmed up to Ben because of his Targ blood, then they would warm up to Aegon too. Yes, when one Targaryen is pitted against another then a dragon will kill a Targ. But you're saying this will not be the case between Dany and Aegon, are you not? In all likelihood, Dany will approach Aegon with curiosity at first, not hell bent on killing him, right? So there is no reason why any of her dragons would just up and kill him because he is not a Targ any more than they haven't upped and killed Jorah or Selmy or anyone else just because they are not Targs.

Plenty of non-Targs approached the dragons and were not even attacked. Doreah, Jorah, Xaro, Groleo, literally all of Dany's Dothraki, Grey Worm, not to mention Arch, Drink, Pretty Merris and countless others. By they time they were large enough to kill people they were either chained up or gone, so this hypothesis of yours is pitifully weak. Not even Balerion went around killing people just because they weren't Targs.

Yes, if Aegon attacks Dany, the dragons will strike. But you say this is not going to happen, that Dany and Aegon will be fast friends and lovers. So why would they do this? I say Dany has no reason to believe that Aegon is real, but this is a far cry from Aegon attacking her. So again, why would they kill him if he is not threatening her? And I also say that if Aegon is not real, he does not know this and he is not the one who's lying. So again, why would Dany want to kill him if this were the case? So no, there is no reason to assume that Aegon has to be real just because the dragons don't kill him on sight. I never said that, because that is not the case.

All your theories about Aegon must be real or else he serves no purpose. False. That if Aegon is not real and the dragons can sense this they will kill him instantly. False. I said Dany would not just jump to the conclusion that he is real just because Illyrio supports him. Dany is smarter than that. And if the dragons react negatively (just react, not torch him), then that will be a big clue to her that he is not real.

You compared Dany to all the other claimants to the throne. This includes Stannis, who is also striving for it out of duty rather than desire, because he thinks it is rightfully his.

Home is a figurative term. The only home she ever knew was the house with the red door, and she knows the Iron Throne is not this home. You are reading far too much into simple turns of phrase. She is pursuing the IT because it was stolen from her family and it rightfully belongs to her. Every claimant offers up some excuse as to why the throne should be theirs. Dany is no different.

Again, false on the face of it. The war was already underway when Ned died. Armies were on the march, battles were being fought, sieges being mounted. Ned's death was just more fuel on a fire that was already burning. The story exists on much more than a Stark-oriented plot.

I never said Aegon will die or that Dany will kill him if he turns out to be false. If you'd bother to check, that is exactly what I didn't say, several times. She just has no reason to simply believe his story, and even greater reason to mistrust him if the dragons don't like him.

In the story, this is real life. None of the characters are making decisions based on what their literary purpose is or what would make the most interesting story arc for the reader. They decide based on their interests, understandings and situations presented in the real lives they are living. This is one of the ways Martin distinguishes himself from other writers. He doesn't just contrive things because it makes for a good plot point. He allows the characters to guide the story as they would. Read up on his whole Gardener vs. Architect approach to writing and you'll see what I mean.

No, Aegon did not bring the GC at the beginning of the 5K. Sorry for the confusion. What I meant was that in the story now, Aegon has brought the GC to Westeros and done all these other things. So by your reasoning his arc is done, his story is over, he should just die anyway because he no longer serves a purpose to Dany or Jon or that story as a whole. But this is not the way Martin rolls. We may yet see all kinds of things from this boy-who-may-be-king.

Exactly where in that chapter is there any sign that Vis was about to be tamed? When Quent cracks the whip and Vis ignores him? When he lurches toward the open door? The way he starts tearing at the flesh of the crossbowman? The way Quent tells him to get down and Vis not only stays up but then hisses at him? In what way, shape or form does any of this suggest that Vis was about to be tamed? Talk about contradicting the text.

Sorry, but in both the real world and the fictional world, not attacking is light years away from being tamed.

They are large, but they are still the same dragons. They probably would not have warmed to Quent either way under those conditions, but just because they didn't devour him on sight doesn't mean they thought he was a Targ. This is a huge leap in logic.

 

 

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So Frog is actually Aegon? Sorry, but I see too many holes here. Doran never acknowledges this fact even as he is preparing to make him Prince of Dorne?

Doran does not say everything he knows.  He makes that crystal clear.

Quote

Or when he laments sending him halfway around the world?

He uses his nephew just as he uses his children.  I'm not sure what "lamentation" is supposed to prove.  Are his crocodile tears pangs of conscience or pangs of gout?  Does not matter because using people is what he does.  He does seem to see a certain irony in Frog being more loyal child to him than Arianne is.  Perhaps part of that irony is that Frog is not really his child.

Quote

And he also never reveals this to Frog so he could disclose his true identity to Dany when he gets there?

Why on earth would he do that?  He's plotting to put his son Quentyn (Young Griff) on the iron throne, not his nephew. Aegon.  He does not want Frog to know he's the real Aegon.  Frog thinks he is Doran's son, and Doran finds Frog's filial loyalty useful.

Quote

And nobody at Sunspear, not Arianne, not Oberyn, none of the Sand Snakes, nobody ever noticed that there was no word of a little baby Quentyn being born, until he is a good year or year-and-a-half old, and suddenly there he is?

It's a baby swap theory.  There was and is a real Quentyn.  Aegon and Quentyn are first cousins, and are about the same age.   They probably resembled each other to some extent, at least as children, especially if Mellario (aka Lady Lemore) has Blackfyre or Valyrian heritage.   Doran sent his nephew Aegon to be fostered with the Yronwoods as Quentyn, and now plots to put his son Quentyn on the Iron throne as Aegon.  Nobody would be surprised to find baby Quentyn looking a little different after they had not seen him for a few years, and Doran has a lot of control over when and where people see each other.

 

[John Suburbs]

On 4/10/2021 at 3:14 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Edit: I'm intereted in your Illyrio-Iron Bank theory.

Realize first of all that this is a theory. So please don't come back with "where's the proof." There is evidence that I will lay out, but if there was iron-clad, unimpeachable proof, then it wouldn't be a theory, it would just be another fact in the book.

So let's start by examining Littlefinger's backstory.

After being tossed out of Riverrun, we lose track of him for a good nine years until he shows up in Gulltown with a "minor sinecure" as a junior customs collector. He is about 20 years old, small, unskilled at arms and has no money of his own, is on the lowest rung of the nobility and has no guards, men-at-arms or other means of protection that we know of.

In short order, however, he starts bringing in substantially more revenue than any other collector, enough to get him noticed. There are only two legitimate ways he can do this, both of which lead to problems. First, he is overcharging the ship captains and merchants to pay more than they rightfully owe, which would lead to howls of protest and put Petyr in mortal danger. Docks are dangerous places where wealthy, powerful men employ press gangs and other thugs to ensure that everyone plays by their rules. The other way is that Petyr is taxing them at the right level and all the other collectors are either crooks, incompetent or both. Again, though, this would upset the apple cart because now he is mucking with the cozy relationship that has existed until now, and that should have gotten him a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea in short order. Somehow, some way, this substantially additional revenue is coming out of someone's pocket, and they won't like it.

The only way this can be done and leave everybody happy is if Petyr is being bankrolled by someone, and that someone has to be rich enough to increase Petyr's haul and bribe all interested parties to look the other way as to how this is being done. Once Petyr has risen to MoC, he has the means to siphon off enough of the crown's loans to run the government, pay for tourneys and funnel the remainder back to the Iron Bank under a series of proxy accounts, for reasons I will explain in a moment. But until then, he needs a backer to make him look like a financial genius when he's really just a conman.

One thing he is not doing is taking goods off the docks, holding them until there is a shortage somewhere, selling them at a profit etc. The only way he could do this reliably is if he is creating these shortages artificially, which again would lead to howls of protest as merchants and craftsmen have to pay these exorbitant prices on goods only when the crown decides to sell them. Even the nobility would start to squawk at the high prices of dresses and doublets and such, and Robert's reign would not be know as a time of peace and plenty but of shortages and inflation.

So what makes me think Illyrio is the bankroller? I turn your attention to the conversation between him and Varys in the dragon room, particularly when Varys admits "the gods know what game Littlefinger is playing." Really Varys? You are the Master of Whisperers with spies all over the kingdom feeding you the dirtiest little secrets of all the high and mighty, and yet you are completely blind when it comes to Littlefinger? But the unusual thing here isn't that Varys doesn't know what his game is, but that Illyrio is not bothered by this at all. And this is after they both acknowledge that LF is mucking with the finances of the kingdom they hope to usurp and that he is directly responsible for things happening too quickly in Westeros for Illyrio's liking. So this has me thinking that Illyrio is not overly perturbed by this because he already knows exactly what game Littlefinger is playing.

And what is that game? To bring down the Iron Bank, and Braavos with it. If the bank goes, so does the Braavosi economy because the iron coin is a proxy currency backed by the IB's gold. Then, Pentos can tear up the peace treaty it signed all those years ago, under unusual circumstances, that forbade Pentos from having its own army and taking part in the slave trade.

How will this work? Simple. By getting the bank to overextend itself with bad loans, then using the proxy accounts they set up to create a panic that will drive it into insolvency. They know that even if the throne wanted to pay back on its loans, it can't because there is no money in the treasury. And they also know that when the payments stop, the bank will do what it always does: find a champion to take the throne and make good on the loans. But while this may work in Essos, Westeros is different. In Essos, anyone can become an archon or a triarch, as long as they have the muscle to win the next election. The iron throne needs a hereditary ruler who has some legitimate family claim to it, or the kingdom must be conquered one great house at a time, something that took Aegon the C a good six years to accomplish, and he had dragons.

So right now, the bank is backing Stannis, which means it is drawing yet more gold out of its coffers in order to recover the gold it loaned out before. And if Stannis dies? Who do they back then? Shireen? Good luck getting support for her. Some junior Baratheon? There are no viable candidates after Stannis. Meanwhile, Illyrio has his man poised to take King's Landing and put the current king and any other Lannisters he can find out of his misery. And the first thing that Aegon will do is declare that the debt owed by usurpers and murderers to be their problem, not the throne's. Now you have all the makings of a classic panic because depositors will know that the bank is out the money it loaned the crown, and to Stannis, and is likely suffering from the loss of trade stemming from Dany's blow to slavery. In this environment, it won't take much to start a whispering campaign followed by a staged withdrawal of all the proxy accounts, which the bank won't be able to cover and it will go under in a day, just like the bank of Rogare did.

How can we tell that the bank is already running low on funds? A couple of ways. First, the bank is calling in loans across Westeros. While this may seem like a power tactic against the throne, if it is it is bound to fail. Disrupting the Westeros economy even further is only going to diminish tax revenue to the crown, making repayment even less likely. In financial circles, whenever a bank starts calling in functioning loans it is a sign of trouble. It means the bank needs to raise cash now because it's reserves are too low.

Secondly, we have the loan to the Night's Watch. When Jon first broaches this subject with Tycho, his answer is a hard no: no way, no how, impossible. Really? The wealthiest most powerful bank in the world and it can't even consider a loan of a few thousand gold just to keep a bunched a wildlings fed through the winter? Eventually, though, the impossible became possible, and later we see how: Jon puts up the wildling treasures, meager as they are, as collateral to secure the loan, which I suspect will be ultimately paid back in wood, which is rare and valuable in Braavos but the NW has in abundance. But the loan can only be done if Jon puts something up first, because the bank is desperate for any influx of cash at this point.

The time is almost here for LF and Illyrio to spring the trap and free Pentos from Braavos' grip. After that, Littlefinger can do what he likes with Westeros.

[Jaenara Belarys]

15 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

something that took Aegon the C a good six years to accomplish, and he had dragons.

It did not take him six years. It took him 1-2 years to conquer , which FaB comes out and says.

On 4/10/2021 at 12:14 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

I was saying he was about to tame Viserion. Or rather on the very beginning of the process. But you claim something that literally contradicts what's written down and expect people to believe you? 

 

I disagree, I think Viserion was about to roast him, but Rhaegal got him first. You don't walk into a dangerous dragon enclosure, with dragons that hardly know you, shouting at them and whipping them, especially when they're already ticked off.

 

[Mister Smikes]

6 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I disagree, I think Viserion was about to roast him, but Rhaegal got him first. 

Then why did he (and by "he" I merely mean the burnt-beyond-recognition guy, if you assume he's Quentyn) live 3 days?   The crossbowman who attacked Viserion barely lived 3 seconds.

[Daeron the Daring]

@John Suburbs, sorry for not answering anymore, I just grow sick of how you ignore or distort what I'm saying all the time. On the other hand, I feel like the single mistake I made in our conversation was thinking that you meant that Daenerys will kill Aegon. Nevermind, really. I find it pointless to argue against something entraped in someone.

However, @Mister Smikes, I think with you I was having a conversation in a different thread (Rickon's) about the Alchemist's Guild and whether the dragons went extinct or not. Do you have any kind of idea why the topic dissapeared, because I already had my pretty long answer on the way, but I recently came back, and the topic was either deleted or something went wrong with it. To be honest, it was long enough to not try to write it down once again, so I guess it's whatever anyway.

[Jaenara Belarys]

The crossbowman had his head in Viserion's mouth. Large difference there.

[Daeron the Daring]

36 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I disagree, I think Viserion was about to roast him, but Rhaegal got him first. You don't walk into a dangerous dragon enclosure, with dragons that hardly know you, shouting at them and whipping them, especially when they're already ticked off.

Name me a single person (that means someone who can't tame a Targ dragon in this case) who ever survived attacking a dragon. Outside Serwyn of the Mirror Shield and those legendary knights. Because Quentyn did use the whip on Viserion to gain back the dragon's attention, and the dragon didn't attack back.

[Mister Smikes]

7 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

The crossbowman had his head in Viserion's mouth. Large difference there.

It is a large difference.  But that's up to Viserion, surely.

[Mister Smikes]

12 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

However, @Mister Smikes, I think with you I was having a conversation in a different thread (Rickon's) about the Alchemist's Guild and whether the dragons went extinct or not. Do you have any kind of idea why the topic dissapeared, because I already had my pretty long answer on the way, but I recently came back, and the topic was either deleted or something went wrong with it. To be honest, it was long enough to not try to write it down once again, so I guess it's whatever anyway.

Not sure.  However, as I recall I was arguing for possibilities, and you were arguing for certainties, which I think puts you at a disadvantage.  For the record I will readily admit that it is POSSIBLE that the dragons went extinct, and that there is indeed SOME evidence for this.  Fair?

[Daeron the Daring]

4 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Not sure.  However, as I recall I was arguing for possibilities, and you were arguing for certainties, which I think puts you at a disadvantage.  For the record I will readily admit that it is POSSIBLE that the dragons went extinct, and that there is indeed SOME evidence for this.  Fair?

It really bothers me because I tried to be more clear while explaining my point, because I admit I was hard to be understood before because the lack of explanation (I tought it's enough).

However, your suggestion sounds fair. We'll see if TWOW comes out.

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Name me a single person (that means someone who can't tame a Targ dragon in this case) who ever survived attacking a dragon. Outside Serwyn of the Mirror Shield and those legendary knights. Because Quentyn did use the whip on Viserion to gain back the dragon's attention, and the dragon didn't attack back.

 The people who attacked Sunfyre near Rook's Rest. Some of them survived. Lady Baela, attacked Sunfyre. Granted, though, she had a dragon. Maybe some of the people who attacked Vermithor at Second Tumbleton? Maybe a few of the people who attacked Drogon at Daznak's Pit?