Do people forget that Daenerys heard Rhaegar say that Aegon is the Prince who was promised?

[Daeron the Daring]

10 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

 The people who attacked Sunfyre near Rook's Rest. Some of them survived. Lady Baela, attacked Sunfyre. Granted, though, she had a dragon. Maybe some of the people who attacked Vermithor at Second Tumbleton? Maybe a few of the people who attacked Drogon at Daznak's Pit? 

Can't really compare these to Quentyn's situation, where he was surrounded by two dragons, and was alone too. If someone attacked a dragon, that someone might have survived because the dragon couldn't kill everybody, being surrounded by too many. What I was pointing at is a dragon won't forgive oe forget if you hit him/her. Yet, Quentyn wasn't harmed by Viserion (who he attacked), but by Rhaegal, to whom he did nothing wrong.

[Rose of Red Lake]

On 4/12/2021 at 11:14 AM, John Suburbs said:

She just has no reason to simply believe his story, and even greater reason to mistrust him if the dragons don't like him

There are several scenes that suggest some kind of evaluation on Dany's part. She did respond with skepticism when Brown Ben said he had a drop of Valyrian blood. She was evaluating his looks. Later she thought he could be trusted because her dragons liked him, and that turned out to be false. She also "tested" Quentyn when he said he has Targaryen blood by taking him to see the dragons, and she emphasized the need for a rider, which planted the seed in his head that he needed to tame one. She apparently didn't see anything "special" in him, which was a mistake.

Also I wonder if Quentyn and Brown Ben have about the same percentage of "dragon blood?" This could be about the same % as Aegon, if he is Serra's son. Their descendents seem pretty remote.

I put "dragon blood" in quotes because I don't think it's blood that matters, I think it's a bond. Like horse riding as GRRM says, i.e. combination of how the dragon feels that day, confidence, and a psychic/mental link. It seems much more ambiguous than just "Chromosome-68" or whatever. And anyway, it's more fitting for the message of the series if blood doesn't matter.

If the dragons like him, Dany could still mistrust him as she learned from Brown Ben. If he is Rhaegar's son but he fails to bond because they're irritated that day or he's not found the link yet, it would be ironic if she eliminated him from the board. I see a ton of ironies coming with this plot. Either way she will probably put way too much emphasis on the dragon reactions, which are ambiguous. Just because Quentyn got burned doesn't mean he was useless. He would have brought her the most stubborn of the kingdoms, and now she's not going to get it.

[Egged]

Quentyn got burned by a dragon she had to keep in chains herself.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/12/2021 at 12:16 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Doran does not say everything he knows.  He makes that crystal clear.

He uses his nephew just as he uses his children.  I'm not sure what "lamentation" is supposed to prove.  Are his crocodile tears pangs of conscience or pangs of gout?  Does not matter because using people is what he does.  He does seem to see a certain irony in Frog being more loyal child to him than Arianne is.  Perhaps part of that irony is that Frog is not really his child.

Why on earth would he do that?  He's plotting to put his son Quentyn (Young Griff) on the iron throne, not his nephew. Aegon.  He does not want Frog to know he's the real Aegon.  Frog thinks he is Doran's son, and Doran finds Frog's filial loyalty useful.

It's a baby swap theory.  There was and is a real Quentyn.  Aegon and Quentyn are first cousins, and are about the same age.   They probably resembled each other to some extent, at least as children, especially if Mellario (aka Lady Lemore) has Blackfyre or Valyrian heritage.   Doran sent his nephew Aegon to be fostered with the Yronwoods as Quentyn, and now plots to put his son Quentyn on the Iron throne as Aegon.  Nobody would be surprised to find baby Quentyn looking a little different after they had not seen him for a few years, and Doran has a lot of control over when and where people see each other.

 

Well, good luck with it is all I can say. Mark me down as unconvinced.

[Mister Smikes]

3 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Well, good luck with it is all I can say. Mark me down as unconvinced.

If you're merely unconvinced I can give you more.  But if you're not interested, we'll just wait and see.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/12/2021 at 1:29 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

It did not take him six years. It took him 1-2 years to conquer , which FaB comes out and says.

I disagree, I think Viserion was about to roast him, but Rhaegal got him first. You don't walk into a dangerous dragon enclosure, with dragons that hardly know you, shouting at them and whipping them, especially when they're already ticked off.

 

Not exactly. The Conquest is defined by the period between the landing at the Blackwater to the crowning at Old Town. But even after Aegon was king, he still had to subdue the Iron Islands and then launch the Dornish campaign, which went on for another decade without ever conquering Dorne. And even three years is a long time compared to how quickly the bank could collapse, which is literally one day. And again, Aegon had dragons.

 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

There are several scenes that suggest some kind of evaluation on Dany's part. She did respond with skepticism when Brown Ben said he had a drop of Valyrian blood. She was evaluating his looks. Later she thought he could be trusted because her dragons liked him, and that turned out to be false. She also "tested" Quentyn when he said he has Targaryen blood by taking him to see the dragons, and she emphasized the need for a rider, which planted the seed in his head that he needed to tame one. She apparently didn't see anything "special" in him, which was a mistake.

Also I wonder if Quentyn and Brown Ben have about the same percentage of "dragon blood?" This could be about the same % as Aegon, if he is Serra's son. Their descendents seem pretty remote.

I put "dragon blood" in quotes because I don't think it's blood that matters, I think it's a bond. Like horse riding as GRRM says, i.e. combination of how the dragon feels that day, confidence, and a psychic/mental link. It seems much more ambiguous than just "Chromosome-68" or whatever. And anyway, it's more fitting for the message of the series if blood doesn't matter.

If the dragons like him, Dany could still mistrust him as she learned from Brown Ben. If he is Rhaegar's son but he fails to bond because they're irritated that day or he's not found the link yet, it would be ironic if she eliminated him from the board. I see a ton of ironies coming with this plot. Either way she will probably put way too much emphasis on the dragon reactions, which are ambiguous. Just because Quentyn got burned doesn't mean he was useless. He would have brought her the most stubborn of the kingdoms, and now she's not going to get it.

Of course. Just because someone may or may not have Targ blood does not mean Dany must or must not trust them, Plenty of Targs have betrayed one another over the years.

But we saw how the dragons warmed to Brown Ben. We don't know whether they would have warmed to Quent or not because the first time he sees them they are chained in the pit and the second time they were attacked. But it's fair to say that if the dragons react negatively to Aegon (not by just killing him outright but simply reacting in a negative manner), that will be a strong sign to Dany that Aegon is not a real Targ and would have no right to the Iron Throne or her hand. Whether she decides to trust him from that point is another matter entirely.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/12/2021 at 2:01 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

@John Suburbs, sorry for not answering anymore, I just grow sick of how you ignore or distort what I'm saying all the time. On the other hand, I feel like the single mistake I made in our conversation was thinking that you meant that Daenerys will kill Aegon. Nevermind, really. I find it pointless to argue against something entraped in someone.

However, @Mister Smikes, I think with you I was having a conversation in a different thread (Rickon's) about the Alchemist's Guild and whether the dragons went extinct or not. Do you have any kind of idea why the topic dissapeared, because I already had my pretty long answer on the way, but I recently came back, and the topic was either deleted or something went wrong with it. To be honest, it was long enough to not try to write it down once again, so I guess it's whatever anyway.

Fair enough. Sorry to have confused you, but I don't see how anyone could have gotten the idea that I said Dany would just kill Aegon if she thought he was not a Targ. And all I've done is repeat your words back to you, so I don't see how this could be ignoring or distorting you. But viva la d.

[John Suburbs]

16 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

If you're merely unconvinced I can give you more.  But if you're not interested, we'll just wait and see.

Nah, I think we're good.

[Mister Smikes]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Nah, I think we're good.

In the meantime, do you have a position on the identities of Lady Lemore and Young Griff?

[Jaenara Belarys]

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not exactly. The Conquest is defined by the period between the landing at the Blackwater to the crowning at Old Town. But even after Aegon was king, he still had to subdue the Iron Islands and then launch the Dornish campaign, which went on for another decade without ever conquering Dorne. And even three years is a long time compared to how quickly the bank could collapse, which is literally one day. And again, Aegon had dragons.

 

If you base it off the Dornish campaign, then the conquest wasn't finished until King Daeron II. Furthermore, King Aegon attacked the Iron Islands in 2 AC. So only 4 years, not six.

On 4/12/2021 at 10:58 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Can't really compare these to Quentyn's situation, where he was surrounded by two dragons, and was alone too. If someone attacked a dragon, that someone might have survived because the dragon couldn't kill everybody, being surrounded by too many. What I was pointing at is a dragon won't forgive oe forget if you hit him/her. Yet, Quentyn wasn't harmed by Viserion (who he attacked), but by Rhaegal, to whom he did nothing wrong.

Yes, I can technically. Lady Baela attacked Sunfyre alone, and Vermithor being a large fully grown dragon can and did destroy forty armed and armored knights. These dragons likely think "bad, bad Dornishman, whipping my brother, I'm going to burn him". Also, if you read the Quentyn POV, he notes that smoke rises from his nostrils and his eyes start to narrow. IDK about you, but it sounds like he was about to have a tasty, charred late night snack named Quentyn.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

In the meantime, do you have a position on the identities of Lady Lemore and Young Griff?

Not the topic of the thread, but anyway, Real Aegon's dead and God knows who Lady Lemore is.

 

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Also, if you read the Quentyn POV, he notes that smoke rises from his nostrils and his eyes start to narrow. IDK about you, but it sounds like he was about to have a tasty, charred late night snack named Quentyn.

I bet that's why he ended up eaten by them.

1 hour ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Yes, I can technically. Lady Baela attacked Sunfyre alone, and Vermithor being a large fully grown dragon can and did destroy forty armed and armored knights. These dragons likely think "bad, bad Dornishman, whipping my brother, I'm going to burn him".

No, you can't. In every case you mention those people were about to harm the dragons. Quentyn, however, didn't suffer anything from Viserion, only Rhaegal, altough he was whipping him, and we've seen how quich he was to anger, altough at their size a crossbow bolt does little to no damage.

[Jaenara Belarys]

Dragons do not take kindly to strangers whipping them, also Rhaegal might be thinking he's coming to the rescue of Viserion from the stranger attacking them.

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Not the topic of the thread,

It's clearly a related issue.  Anyhow I'm not going to start a new thread to ask John Suburbs a simple question.  If he does not want to answer, he does not have to.

2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

but anyway, Real Aegon's dead and God knows who Lady Lemore is.

Thanks for your answer.

[Jaenara Belarys]

 

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

It's clearly a related issue.  Anyhow I'm not going to start a new thread to ask John Suburbs a simple question.  If he does not want to answer, he does not have to.

 

Related issue, but is not the actual topic.

 

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Thanks for your answer.

Yep.

 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

I don't think that particular scene meant much to her. Heck, she might not even have recognized Rhaegar, since she has never seen him. I think this scene was more for the readers than her. 

[Mister Smikes]

9 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't think that particular scene meant much to her. Heck, she might not even have recognized Rhaegar, since she has never seen him. I think this scene was more for the readers than her. 

She does understand or guess that he is Rhaegar.  She has a discussion of the scene with Jorah.

[Lord Varys]

To try to get back on topic, the crucial point in the entire Aegon department for Daenerys is if and when and how she concludes that Aegon might be the cloth/mummer's dragon? If she doesn't believe this, she could not possibly view him as a lie.

I guess to make that conclusion she would have to know in detail about Aegon's backstory and that Varys - the guy behind Aegon - was a mummer in his childhood. That she could all learn from Tyrion ... who could also inform her that a guy named Griff intended to meet with her while he was travelling with them. Assuming she ever bothers talking to Tyrion about the prophecies she got from Quaithe in ADwD. That is a big if.

But from there to the cloth dragon in front of a cheering crowd it is still a long way to go - Aegon must be cheered for that, so he must actually have (considerable) success in Westeros as a Targaryen pretender/promised prince savior guy.

And the point for Daenerys to learn this would be a long time in the future at this point. While Aegon might have a lot of success in Westeros in TWoW ... Daenerys will not receive firsthand information about any of this while she is with the Dothraki. And presumably also not if she made it back to Meereen in that book.

Bottom line is, when she learns about Aegon her first reaction will be joy and relief, not irritation and anger.

[Rose of Red Lake]

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But it's fair to say that if the dragons react negatively to Aegon (not by just killing him outright but simply reacting in a negative manner), that will be a strong sign to Dany that Aegon is not a real Targ and would have no right to the Iron Throne or her hand.

Tyrion could just tell her his suspicions as well but....

I think he's going to suppress that, to encourage an alliance. He's not going to want them to come to blows.

[Egged]

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

To try to get back on topic, the crucial point in the entire Aegon department for Daenerys is if and when and how she concludes that Aegon might be the cloth/mummer's dragon? If she doesn't believe this, she could not possibly view him as a lie.

I guess to make that conclusion she would have to know in detail about Aegon's backstory and that Varys - the guy behind Aegon - was a mummer in his childhood. That she could all learn from Tyrion ... who could also inform her that a guy named Griff intended to meet with her while he was travelling with them. Assuming she ever bothers talking to Tyrion about the prophecies she got from Quaithe in ADwD. That is a big if.

But from there to the cloth dragon in front of a cheering crowd it is still a long way to go - Aegon must be cheered for that, so he must actually have (considerable) success in Westeros as a Targaryen pretender/promised prince savior guy.

And the point for Daenerys to learn this would be a long time in the future at this point. While Aegon might have a lot of success in Westeros in TWoW ... Daenerys will not receive firsthand information about any of this while she is with the Dothraki. And presumably also not if she made it back to Meereen in that book.

Bottom line is, when she learns about Aegon her first reaction will be joy and relief, not irritation and anger.

The thing I never see people bring up when they are quick to use "the mummer's dragon" as the corner stone of why Dany would want Aegon dead, is that she was also warned about the lion. Can she accept the lion-Tyrion-Lannister and yet want to murder AEGON of all people? The one her brother said would be king, a third head of the dragon with her (can't be someone else than herself as far as she knows), that he is the prince that was promised, unless she assumed whatever that was all about was wrong on three counts? It seems the odds are far more in favor of Aegon being trusted while Tyrion wouldn't be, if any of the two was to be.