Jump to content

Do people forget that Daenerys heard Rhaegar say that Aegon is the Prince who was promised?


Egged

Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

In the meantime, do you have a position on the identities of Lady Lemore and Young Griff?

Nothing on LL. I've seen everything from Ashara Dayne to Mellaria of Norvos to Wenda the White Fawn. I lean toward YG being the real Aegon, but he could go either way, or in the end it won't matter whether he is real or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

If you base it off the Dornish campaign, then the conquest wasn't finished until King Daeron II. Furthermore, King Aegon attacked the Iron Islands in 2 AC. So only 4 years, not six.

Yes, I can technically. Lady Baela attacked Sunfyre alone, and Vermithor being a large fully grown dragon can and did destroy forty armed and armored knights. These dragons likely think "bad, bad Dornishman, whipping my brother, I'm going to burn him". Also, if you read the Quentyn POV, he notes that smoke rises from his nostrils and his eyes start to narrow. IDK about you, but it sounds like he was about to have a tasty, charred late night snack named Quentyn.

Not the topic of the thread, but anyway, Real Aegon's dead and God knows who Lady Lemore is.

 

OK, four years, with dragons. The bank could literally fall in a day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/15/2021 at 3:27 AM, Egged said:

The thing I never see people bring up when they are quick to use "the mummer's dragon" as the corner stone of why Dany would want Aegon dead, is that she was also warned about the lion. Can she accept the lion-Tyrion-Lannister and yet want to murder AEGON of all people? The one her brother said would be king, a third head of the dragon with her (can't be someone else than herself as far as she knows), that he is the prince that was promised, unless she assumed whatever that was all about was wrong on three counts? It seems the odds are far more in favor of Aegon being trusted while Tyrion wouldn't be, if any of the two was to be.

Dany is not warned about the lion, she is just told that he and mummer's dragon and the sun's son, etc. are on their way to her. Quaithe also tells Dany to trust none of her visitors, but she explicitly warns her of the perfumed seneschal, not the others.

The reason why she should be wary of the mummer's dragon is because of the cloth dragon on a pole vision from the House of the Undying where this guy is associated with a lie she has to slay. That indicates he isn't necessarily a friend of hers. And it is Dany who first calls the cloth dragon a mummer's dragon back when she discusses her visions with Jorah.

Thus if she were to associate Aegon with the mummer's dragon from Quaithe's prophecy she would likely also associate them both with the vision from the House of the Undying.

But you raise an important question when you ask if/why Dany would ever trust Tyrion. There is only one scenario where I think it makes sense that Dany could trust Tyrion implicitly:

First he has to become a dragonrider because that is going to cause her to view as one of the other dragon heads Rhaegar was looking for - somebody she could trust no matter what. She already believes this to be the case for the people who are going to claim Viserion and Rhaegal.

Second I think they have to conclude/believe/know that the reason why Tyrion could become a dragonrider is that he isn't actually Tywin's seed but was fathered by the Mad King during the anniversary tourney of 262 AC when Joanna Lannister visited court. If Daenerys believes that this ugly dwarf did not just claim one of her dragons but also happens to be her long-lost half-brother then she might be willing to allow him into her councils.

Without that, all Tyrion could hope for when encountering a Daenerys Targaryen who has become the god-empress of the Dothraki is a quick death. She would have no need for him, and no reason whatsoever to trust him considering who he is and what he did in the past.

It would have been different if they had met at her Meereenese court back in ADwD. Then there could have been some use for Tyrion - information about what's going on in Westeros, perhaps even help with figuring out plots of the Meereenese. But once Daenerys has the Dothraki she will have less need to compromise with people with Tyrion's background.

I'm expecting that Tyrion will learn from Barristan who his true father might be - and Selmy was there in 272 AC, he could know if Aerys and Joanna had sex or not - and that Tyrion becoming a dragonrider will cause him to eventually search out Daenerys in Vaes Dothrak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Does Tyrion think YG is fake?

Not "fake" yet but he has suspicions about the whole plot. This post summarizes some of that, where Tyrion doesn't think Illyrio's story adds up. "Maybe he is a Targaryen after all" implies he has doubts which I think will continue to build. I don't think he will share those with Dany though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Second I think they have to conclude/believe/know that the reason why Tyrion could become a dragonrider is that he isn't actually Tywin's seed but was fathered by the Mad King during the anniversary tourney of 262 AC when Joanna Lannister visited court.

There's one problem with this, and it's that Tyrion was born in 273 AC. 

 

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Does Tyrion think YG is fake?

He addresses him as Prince Aegon, but like @Rose of Red Lake pointed out he thought "maybe he is a Targaryen after all". 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

There's one problem with this, and it's that Tyrion was born in 273 AC. 

A pregnancy takes nine months. The idea is that Tyrion was conceived at the tourney in 272 AC but was only in the next year. Tyrion would have to be conceived at that time, anyway, since Tywin also resided at KL, meaning the chances for him to sleep often with his wife who was permanently at Casterly Rock are not that good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany is not warned about the lion, she is just told that he and mummer's dragon and the sun's son, etc. are on their way to her.

Quote

"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

Mummer's dragon and the lion are on equal not-to-be-trusted level. That's just a fact.

So when people go out of their way quoting this, they have to apply it to Tyrion too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Egged said:

Mummer's dragon and the lion are on equal not-to-be-trusted level. That's just a fact.

So when people go out of their way quoting this, they have to apply it to Tyrion too.

Yes, I mentioned that Quaithe said Dany shouldn't trust any of her visitors. But she also doesn't *really* trust Quaithe or has any reason to do so.

And when the sun's son showed up she didn't completely ignore him or consider him a potential danger or didn't trust that Quentyn actually had come to marry her nor that the Dornish didn't plan to support her when she came to Westeros, etc.

But, of course, in light of Tyrion's 'checkered past' it is a very big stretch to assume Daenerys is just going to buy whatever Tyrion tells her. A guy who murdered his father and (allegedly) slew his own royal nephew and whose beloved brother slew Dany's own father isn't the guy anyone in her position should trust.

Even if he weren't an ugly disfigured dwarf whose very looks make it difficult being around him or view him favorably.

20 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

It's still an 10-11 year gap. Do you mean the tourney in 272 AC?

LOL, yes of course. That was a rather persistent typo on my part. We don't even know if there was a tourney in 262 AC. In that year there was the tenth anniversary of Aerys II ascension to the Iron Throne, Tywin threw a big tourney for his boss, and even Joanna showed up at court (and was humiliated by a drunken king) which was kind of unusual after Queen Rhaella had dismissed her from her service.

We can be reasonable certain that Tyrion was conceived during that tourney since it seems to be the last time prior to Tyrion's birth that Tywin and Joanna were at the same place. But it also allows Aerys II to be the father.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Not "fake" yet but he has suspicions about the whole plot. This post summarizes some of that, where Tyrion doesn't think Illyrio's story adds up. "Maybe he is a Targaryen after all" implies he has doubts which I think will continue to build. I don't think he will share those with Dany though.

He does not much care as long as he sees Young Griff as one who can help him hurt Cersei.  Which I think helps explain his lack of interest in Lemore's secrets.  But that could easily change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Not "fake" yet but he has suspicions about the whole plot. This post summarizes some of that, where Tyrion doesn't think Illyrio's story adds up. "Maybe he is a Targaryen after all" implies he has doubts which I think will continue to build. I don't think he will share those with Dany though.

Nice, and it supports my own pet theory that Illyrio is only using Westeros to bring down the Iron Bank, and Braavos with it, so Pentosh can tear up the peace treaty and Illyrio can get even richer selling slaves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

He does not much care as long as he sees Young Griff as one who can help him hurt Cersei.  Which I think helps explain his lack of interest in Lemore's secrets.  But that could easily change.

Tyrion doesn't seem to really believe the Aegon story ... but he has no evidence that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son. And no real evidence whose son Aegon might be instead.

Tyrion would also tell Dany that Rhaegar's old buddy, Jon Connington, is the foster father of this Aegon as well as the leader of his movement. It is also quite clear that the point of the entire enterprise is to avenge Rhaegar and Aerys II. Even if Aegon weren't Rhaegar's son he would still avenge House Targaryen and restore it to glory.

If Dany were male or Aegon female they could not make a marriage alliance. Then things could be more touchy from the start. But that isn't the case. They do still have a big chance to overcome their differences and work together. I don't think they will, in the end, because plot-wise the reason why Aegon decided to invade Westeros without Daenerys seems to be that Aegon and Dany will, eventually, form power blocs independent from each other.

But the bottom line is that who Aegon actually is not going to play the crucial role to explain why Dany and Aegon don't get along.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion doesn't seem to really believe the Aegon story ... but he has no evidence that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son. And no real evidence whose son Aegon might be instead.

Tyrion knows he met Young Griff and Lady Lemore on the Pentos-to-Norvos road, and knows or guesses they did not come from Pentos.  He knows that the group has some connection to Dorne.  He guesses (though he is not particularly interested at the moment) that Lemore is "something to" the lad, and he knows that she has stretch marks on her belly.  He knows Lady Lemore identifies as a merchant's daughter, and that Illyrio (a merchant) refers to Young Griff as "our lad".  He knows or guesses that Serra, Illyrio's wife, had Valyrian traits.   He knows or guesses that the Blackfyre-aligned Golden Company is supporting Young Griff's cause for mysterious reasons other than money.

Give him one or two more clues, and a motive to be skeptical, and I think a FAKE AEGON theory just might start formulating in his brain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, yes of course. That was a rather persistent typo on my part. We don't even know if there was a tourney in 262 AC. In that year there was the tenth anniversary of Aerys II ascension to the Iron Throne, Tywin threw a big tourney for his boss, and even Joanna showed up at court (and was humiliated by a drunken king) which was kind of unusual after Queen Rhaella had dismissed her from her service.

We can be reasonable certain that Tyrion was conceived during that tourney since it seems to be the last time prior to Tyrion's birth that Tywin and Joanna were at the same place. But it also allows Aerys II to be the father.

That was a very persistent typo, :) . Anyway, because you were talking about the 272 tourney then yes, there's a chance. But we don't know where exactly in the year, because if the 9 months lined up with the tourney, it would be all but confirmed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/16/2021 at 8:01 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

That was a very persistent typo, :) . Anyway, because you were talking about the 272 tourney then yes, there's a chance. But we don't know where exactly in the year, because if the 9 months lined up with the tourney, it would be all but confirmed. 

Well, we only know Aerys wanted Joanna, but we know nothing about Joanna. After all, he wasn't a charming character, especially not in 272. That means that Aerys had to rape her, unless we imagine she was fine with doing anything with him. If he eventually raped her, I don't know if Tywin would've waited so much to avenge such a thing. Yea, it might be that he didn't even know it, but that would only happen if Joanna really wasn't forced into this. Otherwise, this doesn't work for me, not only because Aerys gave a damn about secrecy, but also because it ruins not only the weight of Jon's true parentage (because everyone becomes a Targaryen) and the character of Tyrion too, because then he actually didn't kill his own father.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Well, we only know Aerys wanted Joanna, but we know nothing about Joanna. After all, he wasn't a charming character, especially not in 272. That means that Aerys had to rape her, unless we imagine she was fine with doing anything with him. If he eventually raped her, I don't know if Tywin would've waited so much to avenge such a thing. Yea, it might be that he didn't even know it, but that would only happen if Joanna really wasn't forced into this. Otherwise, this doesn't work for me, not only because Aerys gave a damn about secrecy, but also because it ruins not only the weight of Jon's true parentage (because everyone becomes a Targaryen) and the character of Tyrion too, because then he actually didn't kill his own father.

We also have rumors about Joanna being deflowered by Aerys in the night of his father's coronation and one of Aerys' mistresses early in his reign, before she married Tywin.

The possibility is there that Joanna also had a thing for Aerys ... even that she loved him more than Tywin. It might even be that Joanna was the one making Tywin Aerys' Hand, whispering in the ear of her lover at that time. Tywin and Aerys were also friends, of course, but Tywin was back at Casterly Rock during the reign of Jaehaerys II, dealing with the Reynes and Tarbecks ... while Joanna was at court.

Also, while we know Tywin was very much in love with Joanna, we have no idea whether she loved him in the same way. What we know, however, is that Tywin was ruled by Joanna, meaning her own view of his husband could be much more calculating than Tywin's view of her.

How Joanna and Aerys may have had sex in 272 AC is open to debate. He could have summoned her to his chambers to rape her, he could have visited her in her chambers and raped her there, he could have visited her to apologize for his bad behavior and they could have had sex afterwards, she could have visited and seduced him, etc.

One reason why Joanna may have seduced Aerys could be to convince the king to not accept Tywin's resignation. If Tywin was very pissed about the Aerys insulting Joanna but Joanna wanted her husband to continue as Hand something like that is easily imaginable.

But a rape scenario could also make sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/15/2021 at 5:16 PM, Lord Varys said:

Without that, all Tyrion could hope for when encountering a Daenerys Targaryen who has become the god-empress of the Dothraki is a quick death. She would have no need for him, and no reason whatsoever to trust him considering who he is and what he did in the past.

It would have been different if they had met at her Meereenese court back in ADwD. Then there could have been some use for Tyrion - information about what's going on in Westeros, perhaps even help with figuring out plots of the Meereenese. But once Daenerys has the Dothraki she will have less need to compromise with people with Tyrion's background.

I think the setup for the way things will go down in Meereen points to the battle happening BEFORE Dany arrives with the Dothraki. Tyrion is busy getting influence with various sellswords, maybe even more than one company, and will convince them to change sides. Barristan will lead a sortie we know, and when that happens Tyrion will be ready to do his part to disable the trebuchets and release key hostages. I would say saving Daario would be a strong move, giving him something to trade to gain a place at the table in Dany's absence. After the battle he will help deal effectively with the problem of Victarion (yes, he is a problem). I don't know if Barristan will die in battle, but if he does not, I think Barristan knows enough of Tyrion's capacity to rule to respect it and get help from him. 

So Dany may not have much initial reason to trust Tyrion if they met right now, but if she comes back to a city where a battle was won and the insurgency has been tamed, all with significant help from Tyrion, she will have grounds to hear him out I would say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

How Joanna and Aerys may have had sex in 272 AC is open to debate. He could have summoned her to his chambers to rape her, he could have visited her in her chambers and raped her there, he could have visited her to apologize for his bad behavior and they could have had sex afterwards, she could have visited and seduced him, etc.

 

Yeah, but if Aerys did that to Joanna, why didn't she tell Tywin or at least take moon tea?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Yeah, but if Aerys did that to Joanna, why didn't she tell Tywin or at least take moon tea?

Well if you were married to a guy who recently slaughtered every single member of two families, all ages, innocent and guilty, you might think twice about provoking his anger.

Perhaps Joanna was afraid of what Tywin might DO if she told him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...