Do people forget that Daenerys heard Rhaegar say that Aegon is the Prince who was promised?

[Mister Smikes]

7 hours ago, divica said:

The problem is that a blackfyre is still a dragon. Unless he has no valyrian blood faegon doesn t work as the false dragon.

That depends.  Does "dragon" necessarily mean "anyone with Valyrian blood"?

7 hours ago, divica said:

Quentin on the other hand by failing to tame a dragon proved that he is a false dragon. 

I think Quentyn succeeded; but never mind.  Assuming he failed and died, that would hardly prove he did not have Valyrian blood.

[Mister Smikes]

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

With Aegon being in Westeros and the three dragons in Essos chances for Aegon to get a dragon are not that good.

Another way of looking at this is that his chances of getting a dragon (though perhaps not necessarily riding it himself) are excellent, since (1) GRRM has promised a second dance of the dragons, which, by analogy to the first dance, requires dragons controlled by multiple factions; (2) it is foreshadowed, by way of a chess metaphor, that he will bring out his dragon too early and lose it; and (3)  he has friends in the reach which may include blood magicians capable of using king's blood rituals to wake stone dragons (that is, cure dragons with advanced greyscale mistaken for statues).

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He could get one if one of the other dragonriders were to die, but that's a big if.

There's been a huge buildup for the awakening of these stone dragons.

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And why would anyone stick to the dragonless dragon when the dragon queen finally arrives? 

All the more reason to suppose GRRM might make things more interesting.

[Mister Smikes]

On 4/19/2021 at 9:53 AM, Jaenara Belarys said:

Yeah, but if Aerys did that to Joanna, why didn't she tell Tywin or at least take moon tea?

Judging from a few of the known ingredients and by analogy to medieval medicine, I do not think that "moon tea" is a magical foolproof, fail-safe, herbal abortifacient.  One either takes it in small doses in which cases it might not work, or in large doses in which case it might kill more than just the pregnancy.  Anyhow nobody seems to have asked why Lollys did not just take moon tea.

[Mister Smikes]

23 hours ago, divica said:

Both jon and tyrion are in the vision.

"Dragons old (aemon) and young(jon), true (danny) and false (quentin), bright (faegon) and dark (varys or bloodraven). And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of it all.’’

This is the best interpretation of the vision. Not only makes sense but aemon/jon, danny/quentin and faegon/varys are linked in a way that it makes sense they are named together in the vision.

I have given some thought to the possibility that this might refer to actual dragons.  Dragons old (Sheepstealer or progeny, Cannibal or progeny, Silverwing or projeny, the Dragon of Winterfell, a Dragon of Skagos, a Dragon of the Mountains of the Moon or of some other remote deserted location) and young (Drogon, Rhaegal, Viserion), true and false (not sure -- would a zombie dragon be "false"?--), bright and dark (we already have one dragon that breathes black fire, and a prophesy of a dragon breathing shadow fire, or perhaps this could be a metaphor for an allegiance for or against dark forces, or control by dark forces)

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Another way of looking at this is that his chances of getting a dragon (though perhaps not necessarily riding it himself) are excellent, since (1) GRRM has promised a second dance of the dragons, which, by analogy to the first dance, requires dragons controlled by multiple factions; (2) it is foreshadowed, by way of a chess metaphor, that he will bring out his dragon too early and lose it; and (3)  he has friends in the reach which may include blood magicians capable of using king's blood rituals to wake stone dragons (that is, cure dragons with advanced greyscale mistaken for statues).

The Second Dance could just be a Second Dance because, like in the first one, a woman is challenging the claim of a male Targaryen king ... like it was with Rhaenyra and Aegon II. We don't need there to be an army of dragons for this. After all, it would be the Second Dance of the Dragons and whoever is going to come up with the name will compare it - more or less accurately - to the original Dance. The dance aspect in that war wasn't so much that the dragons danced - although that also happened - but rather that the two pretenders 'danced' since they were male and female.

The War of the Five Kings also wasn't a war involving five kings as a maester pointed out, but the name still stuck. Thus there could even be a Second Dance of the Dragons without there being any dragon battles in it.

The cyvasse thing foreshadows that Aegon will lose his war and everything because he doesn't even have a dragon. He loses his dragon when decides not to go to Daenerys.

And ... what dragon statues? The only that exist are those on Dragonstone, and nobody is there who might even want to wake them ... assuming this could be done.

14 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's been a huge buildup for the awakening of these stone dragons.

There was ... back in ASoS. But when Stannis left his island that plot sort of disappeared. Doesn't mean it couldn't come up again - we do have that stuff about the stone beast breathing shadow fire - but I'm not holding my breath at the moment.

14 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Judging from a few of the known ingredients and by analogy to medieval medicine, I do not think that "moon tea" is a magical foolproof, fail-safe, herbal abortifacient.  One either takes it in small doses in which cases it might not work, or in large doses in which case it might kill more than just the pregnancy.  Anyhow nobody seems to have asked why Lollys did not just take moon tea.

There seems to be a pretty big hint with Lysa's situation that an abortion done via moon tea isn't exactly without risk. Lysa's fertility problems could, in part, go back to Hoster aborting her child by Littlefinger.

14 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I have given some thought to the possibility that this might refer to actual dragons.  Dragons old (Sheepstealer or progeny, Cannibal or progeny, Silverwing or projeny, the Dragon of Winterfell, a Dragon of Skagos, a Dragon of the Mountains of the Moon or of some other remote deserted location) and young (Drogon, Rhaegal, Viserion), true and false (not sure -- would a zombie dragon be "false"?--), bright and dark (we already have one dragon that breathes black fire, and a prophesy of a dragon breathing shadow fire, or perhaps this could be a metaphor for an allegiance for or against dark forces, or control by dark forces)

The old, young, true, false dragons could be people ... but the bright and dark dragons could be Drogon (dark) and Viserion (bright).

[Mister Smikes]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Second Dance could just be a Second Dance because, like in the first one, a woman is challenging the claim of a male Targaryen king ... like it was with Rhaenyra and Aegon II.

Seems like a very loose association.  But you might still be right.  If you are, all I can say is I hope there is more to it than that because that idea is not nearly as fun or interesting to me.  I don't care whether the tyrant oppressing the smallfolk is a man or a woman.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The War of the Five Kings also wasn't a war involving five kings as a maester pointed out, but the name still stuck.

One can name and count all 5 kings.  Maester-quibbles aside, it seems far more fitting than calling a war "The Second Dance of the Dragons" merely because it features females challenging male authority.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Thus there could even be a Second Dance of the Dragons without there being any dragon battles in it.

Sure, but who wants that?

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The cyvasse thing foreshadows that Aegon will lose his war and everything because he doesn't even have a dragon. He loses his dragon when decides not to go to Daenerys.

As a mediocre chess player, I am very familiar with the idea that a novice who is tempted to bring out his queen too early often ends up without a queen.  GRRM has merely adapted the adage to Cyvasse.  You would rather analogize to a player who is doomed to lose because he starts the game with a queen-odds handicap.  That analogy is not nearly as apt.

But of course, it might not be foreshadowing at all.  Maybe Young Griff is a bad chess player but a great military strategist.  Who knows.  I was offering it for what it was worth, which is maybe not much.  But I'd rather see it as not being foreshadowing at all, than to stretch the symbolism as far as you are doing.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And ... what dragon statues? The only that exist are those on Dragonstone, and nobody is there who might even want to wake them ... assuming this could be done.

Yeah, those ones.  The super-realistic ones on Dragonstone that Davos suspects are not really statues at all.  And Loras is there on Dragonstone, supposedly dying.  And we are not quite sure what is going on with him.  Loras' mother (of unknown heritage) has silver hair.  His grandfather and aunt are magicians, currently more interested in studying magical texts than worrying about the ironborn threat.  Marwyn may possibly be in league with Tyrells -- at least young Leo Tyrell speaks highly of Marwyn.  And, I've forgotten now, but was there not some hint of Young Griff having friends in the Reach?

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There was ... back in ASoS. But when Stannis left his island that plot sort of disappeared.

Did it?  Sallador Saan was supposed to smuggle Edric Storm to safety.  Do you trust him?  His latest conduct is none too reassuring.  And then Jon tries to keep yet another kingsblood baby safe from blood-magic rituals by sending it south with Sam Tarly.  And what does Sam Tarly do?  He delivers the Kingsblood baby (as well as Aemon's kingsblood corpse) right into the hands of a blood mage, who may be in league with the Tyrells.  Sure, it is taking time for the other shoe to drop with this as with many other things.  But GRRM seems to be going out of his way to keep that little loose end alive.

And we still have a bit of a mystery as to how exactly it was that YG managed to conquer Storm's End.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doesn't mean it couldn't come up again - we do have that stuff about the stone beast breathing shadow fire -

Yeah, that too.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

but I'm not holding my breath at the moment.

Sure.  We probably won't even see tWoW til 2025 at this rate.

[divica]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, no. There is no indication that a Targaryen had the hots for Sam's mom, nor the opportunity to father Samwell on her. With Tyrion it is different.

No, but the tarlys are an excelent example about parents that hate their kids. Tywin behaved much nicely than randyll for most of tyrion's life. And as often happens in the books grrm used sam to show us the fate of the relationship between tyrion and tywin. And it also shows that any argument made about how tywin treated tyrion is moot because there are other westerosi lords that treat sons they don t like in a even worse fashion.

Or can you argue against the paralelisms between radill/sam and tyrion/tywin? Wouldn't it be a good prediction after GoT that tyrion would be presented with a simillar choice to sam?

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

With Aegon being in Westeros and the three dragons in Essos chances for Aegon to get a dragon are not that good. He could get one if one of the other dragonriders were to die, but that's a big if. And why would anyone stick to the dragonless dragon when the dragon queen finally arrives? Or why would one of Dany's dragonriders defect to Aegon ... and not rather decide he would make a better king than them all? Dragons are power, not good looks and purple eyes.

Actually, one can easily argue that victarion will run away with one of danny's dragons. How long he will be able to control it or stay alive are also very debatable... It isn t that dificult for that dragon to end up landing in aegon's lap.

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He wanted the love and respect of his father, not Casterly Rock.

If Tyrion becomes a dragonrider he will have bigger goals than just the Rock. He might aim at the Iron Throne itself, regardless whether he is a Targaryen descendant or not. Dragons are power, and if Aegon can do it, why not Tyrion Lannister?

This is also a common misconception that Tyrion and Dany are going to be buddies. If Tyrion claims one of the riderless dragons then he will be nearly as special a person as Daenerys ... and she isn't there and believed to be dead. Why couldn't he become a king if he has a dragon? What's stopping him?

Dany's people might join another dragonrider quickly enough. What else could they do if Dany were truly dead?

Mind you, we know Tyrion and Dany will eventually hook up - although, according to George, not exactly early in TWoW - but it could become pretty tense if Tyrion had a dragon but no interest in House Targaryen.

I mean, if he gets a dragon - why should he give two cents about the girl?

That is actually one of my problems with tyrion being a targ. Wether you like him or not tyrion with a dragon would be a monster. I doubt there is a line he wouldn't cross to become some overlord.

And tyrion wanted casterly rock probably more than his father respect and love...

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is a vision in the House of the Undying whether the dosh khaleen submit to Daenerys at the Womb of the World. This will happen.

There is also a vision of rhaego or rhaegar with a baby saying he his the ptwp. Not all vision are true but storylines that could have happened...

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Seems like a very loose association.  But you might still be right.  If you are, all I can say is I hope there is more to it than that because that idea is not nearly as fun or interesting to me.  I don't care whether the tyrant oppressing the smallfolk is a man or a woman.

The Targaryens are called 'dragons' because of their heraldic symbol. If we were to get a succession in the North, say, between Jon Snow and Sansa Stark or Sansa and Rickon Stark then this could also be called 'The Dance of the Wolves' or something along those lines.

I certainly expect the dragons to play roles in the coming wars, both in Essos and in Westeros. But it won't be the same role they played during the Dance simply because, so far, there are only three dragons and those dragons are not exactly large. Nobody is going to burn armies or towns or cities with Dany's dragons ... especially not in winter when most of the buildings in the Realm will be caked in snow.

I could even see Dany losing the support of one or two of the dragonriders who claim Viserion and Rhaegal in Meereen ... but the idea that they would defect to Aegon or one of the dragons would be claimed by Aegon is, at this point, very far-fetched. Mind you, we all can think of plots how Aegon could eventually end up with a dragon ... but for that to happen the lad would have to have a lot of luck and plot armor. Really a lot.

Whether Aegon is important enough as a character to get a dragon is, at this point, very much an open question.

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

As a mediocre chess player, I am very familiar with the idea that a novice who is tempted to bring out his queen too early often ends up without a queen.  GRRM has merely adapted the adage to Cyvasse.  You would rather analogize to a player who is doomed to lose because he starts the game with a queen-odds handicap.  That analogy is not nearly as apt.

I think the dragon analogy there cuts in two directions. One it repeats and hammers home the fact we already knew - that dragons are power. They are a gamechanging element. If you have the chance to make use of them, do it. Don't allow yourself get distracted by other shiny ideas.

The other thing is - and that's what I think you also expressed - is that you should not risk too much too early. Tyrion advises feeds Aegon the idea that he could take the Iron Throne without Daenerys and the dragons while at the same time also pointing out that he actually needs them both. This was clearly a poisoned piece of advice, although I think Tyrion has harmed himself as much or more than Aegon.

Because I expect a dragonless Aegon to have much more success in Westeros than Tyrion expected him to have while Daenerys takes her time in Essos. By the time she shows up Aegon will already have everything he wants and he won't need her anymore which is going to cause massive problems.

But since Aegon doesn't have a dragon he will, ultimately, fail.

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Yeah, those ones.  The super-realistic ones on Dragonstone that Davos suspects are not really statues at all.  And Loras is there on Dragonstone, supposedly dying.  And we are not quite sure what is going on with him.  Loras' mother (of unknown heritage) has silver hair.  His grandfather and aunt are magicians, currently more interested in studying magical texts than worrying about the ironborn threat.  Marwyn may possibly be in league with Tyrells -- at least young Leo Tyrell speaks highly of Marwyn.  And, I've forgotten now, but was there not some hint of Young Griff having friends in the Reach?

The Tyrells have so far shown no indication they care about sorcery. Some Hightowers do, but they are stuck in Oldtown.

I'm sure Dragonstone will eventually return to the plot and perhaps something is going to go on there with those statues. Or somebody finds some dragon eggs there and hatches them. With the dragons back in the world other ancient eggs might become viable, too. Or it might be easier to hatch them magically.

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Did it?  Sallador Saan was supposed to smuggle Edric Storm to safety.  Do you trust him?  His latest conduct is none too reassuring.  And then Jon tries to keep yet another kingsblood baby safe from blood-magic rituals by sending it south with Sam Tarly.  And what does Sam Tarly do?  He delivers the Kingsblood baby (as well as Aemon's kingsblood corpse) right into the hands of a blood mage, who may be in league with the Tyrells.  Sure, it is taking time for the other shoe to drop with this as with many other things.  But GRRM seems to be going out of his way to keep that little loose end alive.

Edric Storm is in Lys at the moment.

I'm not sure anybody is going to consider Mance's child as having viable 'king's blood'. And so far only Melisandre and Stannis cared about that thing. Marwyn and the Hightowers I think are smarter than wanting to create their own savior with dragons. They should conclude that Dany hatching dragons from stone already fulfilled the prophecy. And Marwyn more or less believes that already.

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

And we still have a bit of a mystery as to how exactly it was that YG managed to conquer Storm's End.

That's not that difficult. Connington's plan seems to involve the Golden Company giving the impression that they serve Stannis by defeating the Tyrell force under Mathis Rowan besieging the castle. The garrison will then open the castle gates, and Aegon's people will take it, probably without much bloodshed.

Anything else isn't really feasible since storming Storm's End has, so far, never worked ... and if it did work in Aegon's case the Golden Company would suffer massive casualties. And if that happened, then Aegon would be out of the game before it started. Because nobody would support a pretender who last half or more of his army in his first serious battle.

5 hours ago, divica said:

No, but the tarlys are an excelent example about parents that hate their kids. Tywin behaved much nicely than randyll for most of tyrion's life. And as often happens in the books grrm used sam to show us the fate of the relationship between tyrion and tywin. And it also shows that any argument made about how tywin treated tyrion is moot because there are other westerosi lords that treat sons they don t like in a even worse fashion.

But the Tywin's treatment of Tyrion is not really a core argument in this debate. It supports the idea that Tyrion might be Aerys' bastard if we assume Tywin knew or suspected this ... but if that wasn't case the idea could still work. It is not a deciding factor.

5 hours ago, divica said:

Actually, one can easily argue that victarion will run away with one of danny's dragons. How long he will be able to control it or stay alive are also very debatable... It isn t that dificult for that dragon to end up landing in aegon's lap.

Victarion wants Daenerys, the woman Euron covets, for himself. If he claims a dragon he will search for her in the Dothraki Sea. He won't fly or sail back to Westeros.

Of course, dragonriders can die, too, but even if one of them died ... chances are much better than Jon is then going to claim such a dragon, not Aegon. Jon Snow is clearly destined to claim one of the three dragons when they are finally in Westeros.

5 hours ago, divica said:

That is actually one of my problems with tyrion being a targ. Wether you like him or not tyrion with a dragon would be a monster. I doubt there is a line he wouldn't cross to become some overlord.

Tyrion will only remain important as a character if he were to stuck with the folks who want the throne and rule the Realm. If they get to Westeros and he then starts his own campaign to conquer Casterly Rock then this would be side plot and he would become a secondary character. It is kind of telling that, so far, we never saw the Rock since that proves that the Westerlands aren't really all that important to this story. I think we will see them eventually, but most likely never as a place people have to conquer or hold.

Regardless whether he will become a dragonrider or not ... he will stick to Daenerys or whoever else he is with when he returns to Westeros.

5 hours ago, divica said:

And tyrion wanted casterly rock probably more than his father respect and love...

Can you actually back that up with textual evidence? Tyrion demands Casterly Rock as reward from his father when he is disappointed and angry that his father refuses to show him respect and affection. He doesn't think much about Casterly Rock nor does he see himself sitting on the throne of the old Kings of the West, etc. That doesn't seem to be something he cares much about.

What he actually enjoys is being Hand of the King and ruling the Realm.

Of course, as the exile he is he certainly wants to eventually claim the Rock - if he only to have the funds to pay the sellswords whom he promised gigantic fortunes - to hurt those members of his family who discarded him the way they did. And also to shit on Tywin's grave, etc. But it is not something he deeply desired.

[Rondo]

Dany is the prince who was promised.  What she saw at the house of the Undying was her destiny.  Like the Dosh Khaleen, Rhaegar was blinded by bias.  They, towards a male whom they thought would become the Khal of khals.  He, in believing his son will be the promised prince.  They were both wrong.  Dany is the Prince Who Was Promised as well as the One who will unite the khalasars.  The real Aegon is dead.  

[Mister Smikes]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Targaryens are called 'dragons' because of their heraldic symbol.

Yes, I know.  But GRRM also gave us a work of fantasy with actual dragons.  I don't see how we can rule out prophesies and foreshadowings, including the SSM foreshadowed "second dance of the dragons", being about them as well.

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I certainly expect the dragons to play roles in the coming wars, both in Essos and in Westeros.

Right.

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But it won't be the same role they played during the Dance simply because, so far, there are only three dragons and those dragons are not exactly large.

I challenged the assumption that there will be only 3 dragons all the same age.  I went to the trouble of giving reasons.  It is like we are talking in circles now.

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Nobody is going to burn armies or towns or cities with Dany's dragons ... especially not in winter when most of the buildings in the Realm will be caked in snow.

Farmers are still rushing to pull in a final harvest in preparation for the long winter.  There's still time for dragons to burn  alot of these needed harvests, not to mention needed stores.  Nor do I see how caked snow would prevent dragons from burning towns and castles.  Do you think fires don't happen in winter?  In particular, I think the Chekov's bomb under King's Landing is likely to go off, and what is more likely to ignite it than a dragon attack.

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I could even see Dany losing the support of one or two of the dragonriders who claim Viserion and Rhaegal in Meereen ...

Eventually ... sure

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but the idea that they would defect to Aegon or one of the dragons would be claimed by Aegon is, at this point, very far-fetched.

But, as you surely know, that wasn't my idea.  I did not propose that Aegon's dragon would be one of the known 3.

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Mind you, we all can think of plots how Aegon could eventually end up with a dragon ...

The possibility I proposed was that he already has a dragon, and the readers does not know it yet.

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Whether Aegon is important enough as a character to get a dragon is, at this point, very much an open question.

I doubt fAegon is an important enough character to "eventually" get a dragon in Book 9 or whatever.  Hence, my proposition was that he already has one, and (as foreshadowed) he will lose it because of having brought it out too early, as in his Cyvasse game.

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But since Aegon doesn't have a dragon he will, ultimately, fail.

Again, I just challenged the assumption that he does not have a dragon.

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The Tyrells have so far shown no indication they care about sorcery. Some Hightowers do, but they are stuck in Oldtown.

Those Hightowers are Loras' aunt and grandpa.  And they are not "stuck" in Oldtwon.   Grandpa Hightower is a lord, not a prisoner.  Grandpa Hightower controls a city on the sea.  And the language "friends in the Reach" does not imply the entire Reach on Young Griff's side.  Loras is a 3rd son, with no particular motive to take the side of "the Tyrells".

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I'm sure Dragonstone will eventually return to the plot and perhaps something is going to go on there with those statues.

Eventually in  Book 8?  Why do you object to the suspicion that things have already gone on in Dragonstone, and the readers does not know about them yet?

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Or somebody finds some dragon eggs there and hatches them.

Which will become relevant in Book 10, I guess.

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Edric Storm is in Lys at the moment.

I already challenged this assumption.  Are you saying , "I trust Salador Saan"?  What other reason do you have for thinking Edric Storm is in Lys? 

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I'm not sure anybody is going to consider Mance's child as having viable 'king's blood'.

I'm not sure either.  It's a theory .  But Marwyn is also a blood mage, and Sam told Marwyn all about Mance's child, and Aemon's corpse too.   Marwyn's lore, through Mirri, have already indirectly played a roll in waking dragons out of stone.  And king's blood of a sort was involved there too.  If Rhaego and Drogo count, then why not Aemon's corpse and Mance's baby?

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And so far only Melisandre and Stannis cared about that thing.

Marwyn's pupil Mirri did play a role in the hatching of Dany's dragons using blood magic.  So already we have a suggestion that these ideas might not be unique to Mel.

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Marwyn and the Hightowers I think are smarter than wanting to create their own savior with dragons.

Who said anything about creating Saviors?  When one wakes a stone dragon one gets a dragon, presumably.  Maybe one that breathes shadow fire.

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They should conclude that Dany hatching dragons from stone already fulfilled the prophecy.

What prophesy?  I'm referring to the lore that kings blood can be used to wake a stone dragon.

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And Marwyn more or less believes that already.

Does he?  

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That's not that difficult. Connington's plan seems to involve the Golden Company giving the impression that they serve Stannis by defeating the Tyrell force under Mathis Rowan besieging the castle. The garrison will then open the castle gates, and Aegon's people will take it, probably without much bloodshed.

I'm not saying your theory is impossible.  I merely suggested another possibility that you are not so much ruling out as ignoring. 

And I might add that your theory is maybe not a very spectacular one, given all the buildup to it.  If it's that mundane, then I wonder why GRRM kept us all in suspense about it.  And did not GRRM promise that the prologue might relate to the capture of Storms End?  I would think he would want to start with a bang.

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Anything else isn't really feasible since storming Storm's End has, so far, never worked ...

When has Storms End ever been attacked by a dragon?

 

[Jaenara Belarys]

38 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

When has Storms End ever been attacked by a dragon?

 

I don't think it's been attacked by a real dragon. 

 

On 4/20/2021 at 4:40 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Judging from a few of the known ingredients and by analogy to medieval medicine, I do not think that "moon tea" is a magical foolproof, fail-safe, herbal abortifacient.  One either takes it in small doses in which cases it might not work, or in large doses in which case it might kill more than just the pregnancy.  

True...

 

18 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Yeah, those ones.  The super-realistic ones on Dragonstone that Davos suspects are not really statues at all.  And Loras is there on Dragonstone, supposedly dying.  And we are not quite sure what is going on with him.  Loras' mother (of unknown heritage) has silver hair.  His grandfather and aunt are magicians, currently more interested in studying magical texts than worrying about the ironborn threat.  Marwyn may possibly be in league with Tyrells -- at least young Leo Tyrell speaks highly of Marwyn.  And, I've forgotten now, but was there not some hint of Young Griff having friends in the Reach?

 

This is madness. If they had greyscale, I'm sure they'd be dead by now considering that Dragonstone is hundreds of years old. 

38 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I already challenged this assumption.  Are you saying , "I trust Salador Saan"?  What other reason do you have for thinking Edric Storm is in Lys? 

 

The end of the book when it says that Edric Storm is in Lys, maybe?

[Mister Smikes]

8 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

The end of the book when it says that Edric Storm is in Lys, maybe?

You mean the appendix?  The appendix reflects status at the beginning of the book, not the end of the book.   And the pirate captain Salador Saan has already abandoned Stannis' cause.

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 minute ago, Mister Smikes said:

You mean the appendix?  The appendix reflects status at the beginning of the book, not the end of the book.   And the pirate captain Salador Saan has already abandoned Stannis' cause.

But he might still be in Lys. He's not being protected by Saan's people, he's being protected by king's men.

[Mister Smikes]

25 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

But he might still be in Lys.

Yeah, but we're talking past each other.  That he MIGHT still be in Lys is not disproof of a theory that suggests he may no longer be there by the end of the book.

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He's not being protected by Saan's people, he's being protected by king's men.

Sallador is a pirate captain, and Lys is his base.  By the end of the book, Sallador no longer serves Stannis.  Even if Edric's handful of retainers are loyal to Edric (or Stannis, or the long dead King Robert), they have little power, and are more over unlikely to suspect any further schemes involving blood magic rituals.

[Jaenara Belarys]

 

15 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Sallador is a pirate captain, and Lys is his base.  By the end of the book, Sallador no longer serves Stannis.  Even if Edric's handful of retainers are loyal to Edric (or Stannis, or the long dead King Robert), they have little power, and are more over unlikely to suspect any further schemes involving blood magic rituals.

Melisandre is hundreds of miles away, so her bloodmagic is a little unlikely. Also, fAegon doesn't know that Edric is  in Lys, so I think we can safely rule him out.

[Mister Smikes]

36 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Melisandre is hundreds of miles away, so her bloodmagic is a little unlikely.

I did not say or mean Melisandre.  

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Also, fAegon doesn't know that Edric is  in Lys, so I think we can safely rule him out.

If Sallador changes teams, then fAegon can easily know whatever Sallador knows.  We know Sallador's allegiances have changed, though as yet there is no confirmation he has joined fAegon's cause.   Sallador can deliver Edric to his new allies, with or without telling them that he once hid Edric on Lys.  As for what happens to Edric next in the hands of his new "protectors", Sallador has no particular need to know or care.

[Jaenara Belarys]

9 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I did not say or mean Melisandre.  

 

Just bringing up possible candidates, however unlikely.

 

10 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

If Sallador changes teams, then fAegon can easily know whatever Sallador knows.  We know Sallador's allegiances have changed, though as yet there is no confirmation he has joined fAegon's cause.   Sallador can deliver Edric to his new allies, with or without telling them that he once hid Edric on Lys.  As for what happens to Edric next in the hands of his new "protectors", Sallador has no particular need to know or care.

He probably knows that Edric is in Lys, but he probably doesn't know exactly where and Aegon ain't about to tear Lys apart with his army. And the King's Men are probably still loyal.

[Mister Smikes]

15 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

He probably knows that Edric is in Lys, but he probably doesn't know exactly where and Aegon ain't about to tear Lys apart with his army. And the King's Men are probably still loyal.

It really sounds as though you are just talking past whatever I say.

You keep insisting that Edric is still on Lys, just because of the suggestion he WAS on Lys at the beginning of ADWD.

You keep ignoring the  likelihood that Edric is in Sallador's power.  Lys is Sallador's base, and if they were on Lys it was  because Sallador took them there.  A small handful of men, however loyal, cannot stand up to a pirate captain with a small fleet of ships.

I said nothing about fAegon invading Lys to sieze Edric.  Sallador already had Edric.  

Sallador is a mercenary.  He will sell Edric to whoever he wants.  He does not even need to join their team permanently, though of course he can do that too for the right price.

Nor have Edric's entourage have any particular reason to object to being put out of the hands of a pirate captain, and into other hands.  They have no reason to suspect that the new protectors might want Edric for purposes of human sacrifice.

[Jaenara Belarys]

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

It really sounds as though you are just talking past whatever I say.

 

I am looking at your words and presenting an argument against.

 

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

You keep insisting that Edric is still on Lys, just because of the suggestion he WAS on Lys at the beginning of ADWD.

 

How would he leave? Saan's not confirmed to be in Lys. 

 

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

You keep ignoring the  likelihood that Edric is in Sallador's power.  Lys is Sallador's base, and if they were on Lys it was  because Sallador took them there.  A small handful of men, however loyal, cannot stand up to a pirate captain with a small fleet of ships.

 

How is Saan supposed to find them? His ship brought him there, but it's up to Andrew Estermont and the others to protect him. 

 

6 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I said nothing about fAegon invading Lys to sieze Edric.  Sallador already had Edric.  

 

And I did not say that Aegon was going to tear apart Lys looking. I said he  ISN'T about to go looking with an army. 

 

7 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Sallador is a mercenary.  He will sell Edric to whoever he wants.  He does not even need to join their team permanently, though of course he can do that too for the right price.

 

Great, that's very true. But he has to know where Edric is, or have Edric.

Wiki of Ice and Fire says :

Edric is in hiding in Lys with his guardian and protectors.

 

[Mister Smikes]

3 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

How would he leave? Saan's not confirmed to be in Lys. 

Many months have elapsed since the start of ADWD.  It is true that I do not give you an exact breakdown of everything that has happened since.  But that hardly proves that nothing has happened.   Salador San has certainly had time to return to Lys and retrieve Edric since we last saw him.

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How is Saan supposed to find them?

Who says he ever let them go?  Salador owns an entire fleet, and Lys is his home base.  For all we know, Edric and his entourage may be virtual prisoners there, in his castle or manse ... as honored guests, or course, until and unless they try to leave.

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His ship brought him there, but it's up to Andrew Estermont and the others to protect him. 

Good luck to them.  But it is almost as though you think Edric was never in any danger from Stannis and Mel, because, after all, Andrew Estermont and the others were there to protect him.  GRRM will have a super-easy time getting around this obstacle, if that's where he wants the story to go.

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Great, that's very true. But he has to know where Edric is, or have Edric.

Okay, but why is this an obstacle?  Why do you think Salador does not know where Edric is?  Sure, it is POSSIBLE he does not know, but you cannot disprove a theory with a purely speculative objection.

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Wiki of Ice and Fire says :

Edric is in hiding in Lys with his guardian and protectors.

Wiki knows nothing we have not already discussed.  It cites the same appendix we have been discussing.  Which, again, relates to the beginning of ADWD.  And again, many months have passed since then.