Covid-19 #30: Vaccines and All That JJAZ

[Raja]

Yeah, it feels a little helpless being halfway across the world given the pain India is going to go through over the next few months. It is why I am getting little joy from the successful vaccination program rolled out here in the UK or the relaxation of restrictions. Of course I am glad that we are out of the surge, but a part of me thinks on how bad people have it back home and it colours my experiences of even going out and getting a drink at the pub. The only thing I am grateful about is that my mother has been vaccinated as have my aunt and uncle.

The situation is terrible, and going to get worse. Was reading this piece from the Bengaluru Mirror, the situation is likely worse in the bigger cities. We need vaccines, and we need a lockdown, and we need a central government that actually takes some responsibility.

Quote

“We have patients whose SPO2 is just 75 and we are not able to provide them with oxygen. We are in tears and helpless, watching our patients struggle and clutch on empty cylinders next to them. They fear that the cylinders will be taken away and won't be refilled"

Sigh. All of this just makes me sad.

[Fragile Bird]

CNBC is reporting the EU has announced it is not taking up options on 300 M doses of AZ and J&J that they are entitled to. Future purchases have not been ruled out.

Pfizer and Moderna all the way, I guess.

And I saw reports about Pfizer tracking down counterfeit vaccine doses in Poland and elsewhere.

[Luzifer's right hand]

4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

CNBC is reporting the EU has announced it is not taking up options on 300 M doses of AZ and J&J that they are entitled to. Future purchases have not been ruled out.

Pfizer and Moderna all the way, I guess.

And I saw reports about Pfizer tracking down counterfeit vaccine doses in Poland and elsewhere.

They are already throwing vaccines dose away on a regular basis here because people don't show up if they hear or even just suspect that they will get AZ.

To keep using those vaccines will just harm the vaccination effort at this point imho unless they set up a separate AZ program which allows signup for people who are 18+. Even a lot people who think that it is a decent vaccine feel like they will get both Pfizer or Moderna doses(3-4 weeks) before they get two AZ doses(12 weeks) even if they get AZ now. 

 

[AncalagonTheBlack]

6 hours ago, Raja said:

It's that Indian immune system. Yes, this makes medical sense.

( I also had no reaction to both doses, but I'm 27)

Count me in as also having the Indian immune system (i'm a wildling from the mountainous north )

No side effects from the first AZ shot.But i'm getting a bit nervous since my second dose is upcoming next week. (i'm 40)

Do we know whether the blood clot issue happens with either the first shot or second ? Or both?

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe there have been no instances of the rare 'blood clots' after the 2nd dose. So the recommendation from everyone is to get the 2nd jab if you werent affected by the first.

Edit: Should add that after a full 24 hours the only side effects I have are a slightly sore arm (and the very mildest sore throat, but I think thats because the weather here turned cold after weeks of being mild).

[ljkeane]

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe there have been no instances of the rare 'blood clots' after the 2nd dose. So the recommendation from everyone is to get the 2nd jab if you werent affected by the first.

Out of 100 cases in the UK there were 99 after the first dose and one after the second dose. The report notes that for the one case after the second dose that 'this individual had medical conditions that could have caused the events'. So, yeah, if you were fine after the first dose you're probably even more likely to be okay after the second dose.

[Fragile Bird]

More on my anti-vaxxer SiL. My brother and I have repeatedly tried to talk about vaccines with her but she just gets more and more hard-nosed. I went over to see them tonight and when I got there she was showing my brother a video from Poland of a nurse in a hospital pulling back the curtains from hospital beds and showing empty bed after empty bed. You see, she crowed, the hospitals are not full, it’s all lies. I said to her that if there are 9,000 cases  a day in Canada and the hospitals are full, how can beds be empty in Poland where they have 9,000 cases too. But she kept interrupting me by saying “if there are 9,000 cases, who said so”.

I tell you, it’s like banging your head against the wall.

[Padraig]

8 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

They are already throwing vaccines dose away on a regular basis here because people don't show up if they hear or even just suspect that they will get AZ.

You'd still hope they could avoid wastage.  Pity.

Whatever about AZ and J&J (and there are 500m doses to be delivered in total between the two of them), i'm surprised that the EU is also walking away from Valneva.  The mRNA vaccines have worked well so far, but I would have thought you'd still want to support a few different technologies to be safe.  Valneva is an inactivated whole virus vaccine (different from MRNA and adenovirus).  The only other vaccines actually ordered are Curevac (mRNA) and Sanofi (they are developing 2 vaccines, one of which is an mRNA).

It is still assumed that Novavax will be ordered and that is different technology but one can't say that one company is much variety.

A long interesting article about the little company who could (probably) Novavax

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

More on my anti-vaxxer SiL. My brother and I have repeatedly tried to talk about vaccines with her but she just gets more and more hard-nosed. I went over to see them tonight and when I got there she was showing my brother a video from Poland of a nurse in a hospital pulling back the curtains from hospital beds and showing empty bed after empty bed. You see, she crowed, the hospitals are not full, it’s all lies. I said to her that if there are 9,000 cases  a day in Canada and the hospitals are full, how can beds be empty in Poland where they have 9,000 cases too. But she kept interrupting me by saying “if there are 9,000 cases, who said so”.

I tell you, it’s like banging your head against the wall.

Honestly why keep bothering at this point? She's clearly not going to change her mind.

[Fragile Bird]

24 minutes ago, Padraig said:

A long interesting article about the little company who could (probably) Novavax

Interesting that that article is dated April 21 and they didn’t even bother mentioning they entered Into an agreement with the government of Canada months ago to produce vaccine later this year. “Sighs”

[Fragile Bird]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Honestly why keep bothering at this point? She's clearly not going to change her mind.

Hope springs eternal.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

46 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

More on my anti-vaxxer SiL. My brother and I have repeatedly tried to talk about vaccines with her but she just gets more and more hard-nosed. I went over to see them tonight and when I got there she was showing my brother a video from Poland of a nurse in a hospital pulling back the curtains from hospital beds and showing empty bed after empty bed. You see, she crowed, the hospitals are not full, it’s all lies. I said to her that if there are 9,000 cases  a day in Canada and the hospitals are full, how can beds be empty in Poland where they have 9,000 cases too. But she kept interrupting me by saying “if there are 9,000 cases, who said so”.

I tell you, it’s like banging your head against the wall.

Yeah - I have one branch of the family who ended up with covid, due mostly to Texas idiocy, and another that refuses to get vaccinated, and we are at the point of “have a nice life, we’ll see you when you get vaccinated or after you get sick, whichever comes first - hope you’re not expecting any sympathy or support if it’s the latter, cuz you chose not to jump without a backup parachute”.

It’s a waste of oxygen trying to explain health policy to either group.  It’s the Trump/Ted Nugent moving goalposts of “It’s not real” > “it’s not that serious, see: *insert rando Facebook post” > “I didn’t die from it” (unless they in fact died and can’t spout opinions any more)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Hope springs eternal.

I understand the sentiment, but you may also risk further alienating her and pusher closer to her absurd beliefs.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

26 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Actually, I don’t give a crap if someone chooses not to be vaccinated. I can choose to not socialize with them. And if they are, say, at a restaurant, then it’s not me who is taking a risk. 

So, they can go to hell in whatever hand basket they choose, I’ve been vaccinated and I’ll wear my mask in public, and they won’t, and so they can get sick and possibly die if that’s the way they choose to roll the dice.

Live and let die, amirite?

We don’t care if they get the vaccine or not, but  both last year and this year, they’ve been asking if they can drive across country from Indiana to the PacNW and stay with us in the summer.

They’ve been noticeably upset when we say “No”, and cite we don’t feel comfortable with the risk, for us (and them by extension, since our “yes” condones their behavior, and means they will be driving for 3 days across the country, like a finger dragged through a Petri dish, to then have to interact with our family for several weeks).

BIL asked why we’re “choosing this, instead of what we normally do every summer” and my answer was “First, this is not the normal situation - second, we have boundaries, dumbass”.

[S John]

2 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Actually, I don’t give a crap if someone chooses not to be vaccinated. I can choose to not socialize with them. And if they are, say, at a restaurant, then it’s not me who is taking a risk. 

So, they can go to hell in whatever hand basket they choose, I’ve been vaccinated and I’ll wear my mask in public, and they won’t, and so they can get sick and possibly die if that’s the way they choose to roll the dice.

My take also. There’s a large contingent on my moms side like what @VigoTheCarpathian described.

Now that my immediate family is all at least partially vaccinated and about one week from all of us having both doses AND the US has now opened vaccinations to all adults nationwide - I am on the verge of not having to care what fucking morons in this country do anymore. I’m tired of hearing their bullshit and I can’t wait until the only people hurt by their destructive and moronic behavior will be themselves and others like them. Get vaccinated or don’t, and for the sake of our healthcare workers please do - but to any American who finds themselves in the hospital 6 months from now with Covid - I fucking told you so.

[Mudguard]

Since a lot of us are vaccinated now, just a reminder that just because you are vaccinated, doesn't mean that you are in fact immune.  For example, if you got the AZ vaccine or the J&J vaccine, you are about 70% less likely to get infected than a completely non-vaccinated person, but that means that if you have two equal sized groups of vaccinated and non-vaccinated people, for every 3 unvaccinated people that get infected, about 1 person vaccinated with either AZ or J&J vaccine will get it.  For the mRNA vaccines, the ratio is about 10-20 to 1.  In the US, about half of the adults have received one shot of the mRNA vaccines.  When we have tens of thousands of people that are getting infected every day, you should expect thousands of vaccinated people also to get infected.  And even though the vaccines should help further reduce the risk of severe illness or death, it's not going to be 100% effective.  Odds of not dying will be a lot better, but not zero.

Also, it's probable that as more and more of the people get vaccinated, one of the vaccine resistant variants such as the South African variant, will start infecting more and more people, and we'll start seeing more of the vaccinated people getting infected.  The South African variant has already seeded itself all over the world, including in the US.  We probably need at least one booster to the first set of gen 1 vaccine resistant variants that we are aware of to truly get past this pandemic.  Maybe we'll need more than one booster, depending on how fast we can vaccinate the world.  The good news is that the vaccine platforms have now been validated and vaccine production facilities are up and running and are expanding and they should be able to manufacture the boosters relatively quickly once they are finished with making the gen 1 vaccines.  Probably makes sense to test combination vaccines (gen 1 plus new variants or at least a cocktail of the new variants) now and switch if/when we prove that the combination vaccine works.  I believe these studies are already underway.  No reason to keep making gen 1 vaccines if they can make the cocktail now, if the cocktail works.

[JoannaL]

7 hours ago, Padraig said:

 

Whatever about AZ and J&J (and there are 500m doses to be delivered in total between the two of them), i'm surprised that the EU is also walking away from Valneva.  The mRNA vaccines have worked well so far, but I would have thought you'd still want to support a few different technologies to be safe.  Valneva is an inactivated whole virus vaccine (different from MRNA and adenovirus).  The only other vaccines actually ordered are Curevac (mRNA) and Sanofi (they are developing 2 vaccines, one of which is an mRNA).

 

Well, Valneva has already signed a contract with the UK AND they are producing in the UK (though its a French company). How high are the odd that we would see any vaccine under these circumstances? I bet there is as well some mysterious : first 100 mio doses to the UK clause, somewhere (though none will see this contract). Really there is no reason to do business with them.

[Heartofice]

Quote

Odds of not dying will be a lot better, but not zero.

Not zero but very very low.

[Mudguard]

42 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Not zero but very very low.

For the most common variants in most of the world, probably yes.  There should be quite a bit of data now on this, but I haven't come across it yet (or looked for it), but I assume this is the case. 

But I'm not sure this will hold up with the other variants that we are concerned about, such as the South African variant, with the current vaccines.  We'll need a booster for that variant and probably some others.  Could be a little while before the boosters are available to the public, given the fact that most of the world is still not even close to receiving the first dose.  Unless the vaccine manufacturers switch to a cocktail version early, we probably won't see booster for another year or two.

The big question right now is whether we can vaccinate enough people to get to or near herd immunity so that the virus begins to die out.  That's where everyone wants to get to.  In the US, it's going to take a combination of vaccinated people and people immune from getting infected to get to herd immunity.  Something like 50% of Republicans, so about 25% of the country, still refuse to get vaccinated.  No idea how problematic this is for other countries.  The problem is that the longer the virus circulates, the higher the likelihood that another problematic variant emerges that will require a new vaccine.

[Clueless Northman]

Considering how slow the rollout is across the world, odds are that many people will actually get next-gen vaccine (designed to fight the variants) for their 1st or 2nd shots. Those who got vaccinated early will have to get a booster shot, on the other hand.

I'm also going to agree and fuse both above opinions: many vaccinated people will still catch it, if not enough people get the jabs, and those will have to be helped and deserve sympathy. On the other hand, if there are too many anti-vaxx idiots and the healthcare system begins to crack under the weight once again, then we really need to check who got the vaccine and who deserves to get lost, until hospitals aren't full. I expect 3/4 of those who refuse to get the vaccine to actually catch covid in the next 10-12 months.