Covid-19 #30: Vaccines and All That JJAZ

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Just now, Karlbear said:

On that note, west Virginia is offering money to.people to get the vaccine. 

Honestly, West Virginia has really shown leadership on the vaccine front.

[Filippa Eilhart]

32 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

On that note, west Virginia is offering money to.people to get the vaccine. 

I would want to see data on how well that works. There was a poll done in Poland and people said they would NOT take a vaccine if they were offered money on account of there being something wrong with it if you need to be paid to get it. But that’s a poll, not actual real-life data.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I do think the J&J pause did cause an increase in wariness, but that would probably only affect people who were already skeptical. IIRC there was a projected slowdown in vaccinations for May, but that was from a few months back and we're ahead of schedule with the overall vaccination process, so perhaps it's just happening sooner than expected. 

Frankly though I think society needs to implement some rather punitive measures to get the stragglers' asses in gear.

Could we start with the public flagellation of Joe Rogan? Verbal that is. Also a red hot poker up Tucker Carlson's ass. I'm being totally metaphorical here.

Rogan is just stupid. Carlson is being partisan. He knows the longer it goes on the easier it will be for Republicans to paint this as "Biden's virus."

Justin Trudeau and his wife just got shot with the AstraZeneca vaccine on live TV. Trump and his brood need to be mocked mercilessly until they do likewise. Same for Tucker Carlson. 

[Altherion]

19 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Several of our friends back in Chicago are Indian and they’ve told us that COVID is just rampant now in India.  They all have family members and friends back home who have just recently been infected.  That sounds more alarming than I expected because their per-capita infection rate is about the same as what the US had a couple of weeks ago.

The rate is so low because India still hasn't straightened out the testing situation. We had basically the same situation in New York City in March and April of 2020: nominally low infection rates, but very high hospitalization and death rates. The US eventually got widespread testing going to the point where everyone who wants a test can have one, but India is still limited by the number of tests which results in sky-high positivity rates and strangely low infection rates.

[Zorral]

At least NYC is reporting that it appears at least 95% of us showed up to keep our appointments for the second injection of Pfizer and Moderna.  That's just about the only good news I've seen today regarding the pandemic.  Sigh.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

12 minutes ago, Zorral said:

At least NYC is reporting that it appears at least 95% of us showed up to keep our appointments for the second injection of Pfizer and Moderna.  That's just about the only good news I've seen today regarding the pandemic.  Sigh.

WSJ is reporting that vaccinations appear to be slowing positivity rates.  The 14 day average is consistently down....

[Zorral]

5 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

WSJ is reporting that vaccinations appear to be slowing positivity rates.  The 14 day average is consistently down....

Thank you.    But these mutations and variants are really worrying me.  We aren't anywhere near seeing an end to this mess or keeping distance and wearing masks, and certainly not for travel that includes planes and group events.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

9 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Thank you.    But these mutations and variants are really worrying me.  We aren't anywhere near seeing an end to this mess or keeping distance and wearing masks, and certainly not for travel that includes planes and group events.

You can only look ahead in 2 week increments. You will otherwise drive yourself crazy.

[IheartIheartTesla]

The Guardian had an article about the upcoming 'hot vax summer', so at least some folks are ready to get back to a life resembling normalcy. People are also putting their vaccine status up on dating apps and such. Just need a song about it and we should be all set.

[Zorral]

29 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

You can only look ahead in 2 week increments. You will otherwise drive yourself crazy.

Ya, but the pandemic curfew on bars and restaurants, indoors and out, and even sitting at the bar, are being removed.  Which is only a disasters, especially down here, where everybody comes, from all over the country and the world.  And they aren't vaccinated and they aren't wearing masks and we don't have vax passports or anything. Plus people admit they are lying.  A lot.  About vaccination.  It's like Times Square here almost all the time already as it is, packed with people.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

The rate is so low because India still hasn't straightened out the testing situation. We had basically the same situation in New York City in March and April of 2020: nominally low infection rates, but very high hospitalization and death rates.

Yes.  You can learn a lot from positivity rates.  India's is 20% curently, one of the worst in the world.  Ecuador is at 41%, which is completely crazy.

For comparison, the US is 6%, the UK 0.2%.

Every day your case (and fatality) rates are going down is a very good day.  You are buying more time for your vaccination program to kick in.  You'd like it to be going down faster (of course) but it gives you a chance at least.  That's why the US and Europe looks ok right now (and hopefully it will continue).  Unlike other parts of the world.

[DireWolfSpirit]

The UK is kicking ass with its vaccination rates-

England, on average, has vaccinated 95% of those aged 50 and over, with the South West reaching 97% of people in that age group and London 87%. In Scotland, 98% of over 50s have had at least one dose of the vaccine, while Wales has reached 92% and Northern Ireland 89%.2 days ago

[Which Tyler]

12 year old neice is ill with Covid - severe but not hospitalising yet

[JoannaL]

28 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The UK is kicking ass with its vaccination rates-

England, on average, has vaccinated 95% of those aged 50 and over, with the South West reaching 97% of people in that age group and London 87%. In Scotland, 98% of over 50s have had at least one dose of the vaccine, while Wales has reached 92% and Northern Ireland 89%.2 days ago

Thats really admirable! I think the UK is the only western country without any vaccine hesitancy. Actually I do not know of any country in the whole world with these rates.

I just read an article today (in German so no link) that in some African countries (Malawi and Uganda) they are starting to throw away vaccine (AZ -  from COVAX) because it has exceeded its expiration date because of vaccine hesitancy. There is a lot of distrust against vaccination in general there, and also the feeling that Covid isnt that bad ,  some person in the interview compared it to Ebola and said its really not that bad so why risk a vaccination?

[Kalbear]

I heard on npr that in India one hospital had 37 doctors and nurses come down with covid last month. 

The problem is that they were all fully vaccinated. 

Don't have any more details than that. 

[Padraig]

This is a good article on the India crisis.  A few relevant quotes...

Quote

At Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, a huge facility in the middle of India’s capital, 37 fully vaccinated doctors came down with Covid-19 earlier this month.  The infections left most with mild symptoms, but it added to their growing fears that the virus behind India’s catastrophic second wave is different.

Quote

“There is a lot of jumping to conclusions that B.1.167 is the explanation for what’s happening,” said Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Britain. “These other things are probably more likely to be the explanation.”

Preliminary evidence suggests that the variant is still responsive to vaccines, although slightly less so. India relies heavily on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, which clinical trials show is less powerful than the vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna and could perhaps be more easily thwarted by mutations.

Quote

So far, data from the Indian Council of Medical Research up to April 21 shows an extremely low breakthrough infection rate, though perhaps not as low as that of the United States. The data shows 0.02 percent to 0.04 percent of vaccinated people falling ill. The rate in the United States, which relies on different vaccines, is 0.008 percent.

Quote

At Sir Ganga Ram hospital, the 37 doctors who became infected after immunization had received their first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine between late January to early February and then their second dose four to six weeks after that. The hospital employs about 500 doctors.

Covaxin (the domestically produced vaccine used in India) has a reported 78% efficacy.  Similar to AZ, the other vaccine used there.  But AZ for one, has reportedly struggled against the South African variant (but that was based on one small trial).  The Indian variant has some similarities to the South African one, so it is possible that its efficacy has fallen below the mid-70s.

37 doctors out of 500 is 7%.  Not all doctors will be exposed to COVID but you could imagine that a lot of them would be.  If 150 doctors are exposed, that would leave you with an efficiacy of 75%.

The other interesting question is how badly were the doctors affected?  It is hoped that while AZ may not protect somebody extremely well from the SA variant, it would at least protect against serious illness.  The NYT article does say most of them had mild symptoms. But you'd have to compare against a similar unvaccinated group to see did they do better or worse.

3 hours ago, JoannaL said:

I just read an article today (in German so no link) that in some African countries (Malawi and Uganda) they are starting to throw away vaccine (AZ -  from COVAX) because it has exceeded its expiration date because of vaccine hesitancy. There is a lot of distrust against vaccination in general there, and also the feeling that Covid isnt that bad ,  some person in the interview compared it to Ebola and said its really not that bad so why risk a vaccination?

Compared to Ebola?  That is supposed to be horrendous!  Maybe that is the problem, if you have faced Ebola, COVID-19 may feel minor.  But yes, I also read that COVAX was taking back some of its AZ vaccine because it was unused in Africa.  A problem.  India has shown how badly things can get.

Filippa shared a link previously on vaccine uptake.  Its fascinating.  Ireland has had 100% uptake of the first dose for those over 80.  It will be interested to see how well we'll do for the other age groups.  I know there has been more resistance from the 60-70 age group because their only option is AZ.  But that may still work out hopefully.

https://covid19-vaccine-report.ecdc.europa.eu/#3_Uptake_of_at_least_one_vaccine_dose_among_adults

[Zorral]

Reminder that Modi was Silicon Valley's candidate.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/facebook-blocking-posts-hashtag-resign-modi

 

Quote

 

Facebook temporarily hid posts calling for the resignation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marking the platform's latest foray in a series of controversial decisions affecting free speech in a country experiencing a full-blown COVID-19 crisis.

On Wednesday, the world’s largest social network said that posts with the hashtag or text #ResignModi “are temporarily hidden here” because “some content in those posts goes against our Community Standards.” Because the posts were hidden, it’s unclear what content violated the rules of a company whose executives have often expressed a commitment to open expression.

After hiding posts with the hashtag for about three hours, Facebook reversed its decision and allowed users to find and access posts with the criticism of Modi, just after this story was published.

Last week, the Indian government ordered Twitter to block access to more than 50 tweets that criticized Modi’s handling of the pandemic. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Facebook and Instagram had blocked posts about Modi on the orders of the government.

It was not immediately clear whether Facebook's hiding of the #ResignModi hashtag came at the behest of the Indian government,or if it was done at the company’s discretion. The hashtag was hidden within India, according to people who shared screenshots on Twitter, and in the United States, Canada, and England based on searches run by BuzzFeed News....

 

 

[Raja]

24 minutes ago, Padraig said:

This is a good article on the India crisis. 

I would be careful with that article, not too much data at all, lots of speculation and anecdotes, ( and with the greatest respect to cardiac surgeons quoted in that piece, they would know nothing about managing covid) - the lack of data there is particularly striking, but more details can help as opposed to the headline of '37 doctors who got vaccinated got covid'; they mention that they had the first dose in late Jan/Early Feb, with the second dose likely being March/ April.

We are not sure when they got infected with COVID ( which is a key part of the puzzle) - it could have been a few days after their first dose, between the two doses, or after the second dose - we have no idea because it is not stated in the article. In addition, remember, protection kicks in 2-3 weeks after the first dose. Without all those details, it is hard to reach any conclusions.

( There is a whole separate debate to be had about how poor I have found NYT's reporting on covid over the last year, but I'm too lazy to get into all that)

[Starkess]

I got dose 2 of Pfizer yesterday. Took the day off work today just in case, but nothing worse than a sore arm and a bit of a headache (which might not even be related since I get headaches kind of a lot!). Glad to have the day off though.

We had a small bump locally, going from <3% positivity rate in early March up to almost 6% by mid-April. But now it's trending down again, current rolling average is 4.7%. Hope that continues!

Also I had a random date from over 3 years ago reach out to me and ask to meet up for drinks, so I guess the populace is slowly coming alive! 

[Padraig]

 

1 hour ago, Raja said:

I would be careful with that article, not too much data at all, lots of speculation and anecdotes, ( and with the greatest respect to cardiac surgeons quoted in that piece, they would know nothing about managing covid) - the lack of data there is particularly striking, but more details can help as opposed to the headline of '37 doctors who got vaccinated got covid'; they mention that they had the first dose in late Jan/Early Feb, with the second dose likely being March/ April.

I'm not sure I'd completely agree with that.  I accept that there has been a lot of poor reporting on COVID but I'm not expecting an article to be definitive, when things are very uncertain.  Reading it reminded me of the early reporting from China regarding COVID.  Nobody knew much.  There were a lot of anectotes.  But you can't ignore a story just because you don't know everything.

There are definitely good reporting in the article.  For example, I think its good that it highlights that the variant rife in India is as much the UK variant as the new Indian one.  That suggests that this crisis may be more controllable than otherwise.

And in fairness, the headline isn't about 37 doctors getting COVID.  It's one of the first lines in the article.   Maybe that is still overly alarming but what is going on in India is alarming.

While its not very clear, the article actually gives most of the required info on those doctors.

• 37 fully vaccinated doctors came down with Covid-19 earlier this month (i.e. that is, early April).
• 37 doctors who became infected had received their first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine between late January to early February and then their second dose four to six weeks after that. (that means they should have been fully vaccinated by approximately mid March).