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Covid-19 #30: Vaccines and All That JJAZ

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25 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Sure you could get cases to 0 if you locked everyone in their houses. But that’s the trade off isn’t it. I’m sure if you owned a pub or a shop you are happy that people  are able to come to you.

 

I'm also sure that people who own pubs and shops would prefer to have locked down for an extra month last Spring/Summer and avoided the subsequent 5 months of lockdown we've had since. 

We do have the vaccine now, that's true, but as of yet we've only fully vaccinated a quarter of the adult population. I can easily see a situation where we lift restrictions now and not only get a case surge but a case surge that features one of the variants (e.g. Brazil) that is much more dangerous to the young + children, i.e. the unvaccinated. That's a worst case scenario, sure, but I think reason enough to not jump the gun.

 

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Posted (edited)

I know a lot of places where 2m+ masks or mask and gloves worked really well and even positive people did not infect people they touched(in retirement homes and homes for handicapped people). I think only the first lockdown would have been necessary if western societies did not have a large percentage of stupid fuckwads(amplified by facebook/whatsapp/telegram) and next to no enforcement of many laws and rules when they are violated by privileged groups(because all police orgs in western countries are to some degree far right). 

The people who hate the lockdowns the most are the ones that are to blame for the situation that made them necessary.

Edited by Luzifer's right hand

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Biontech/Pfizer applied  today at the EMA for approval of their vaccine for the 12-15 year old. It could be granted quite quickly (June?), but if will be September or so until the teenagers can get any vaccine.

I have to admit I am not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand this is really great news, herd immunity could be achieved so much quicker if we include these groups. On the other hand I do have two daughters and I am just unsure about the risk balance. while it totally makes sense for every adult to get vaccinated, I think there are close to zero cases of deaths in this young age group- and we can not know the long term side effects of vaccination yet (long term means two years, but the vaccine was in phase III just last summer, so we have data for one year max) ? I just have a not so good feeling about this.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

Biontech/Pfizer applied  today at the EMA for approval of their vaccine for the 12-15 year old. It could be granted quite quickly (June?), but if will be September or so until the teenagers can get any vaccine.

I have to admit I am not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand this is really great news, herd immunity could be achieved so much quicker if we include these groups. On the other hand I do have two daughters and I am just unsure about the risk balance. while it totally makes sense for every adult to get vaccinated, I think there are close to zero cases of deaths in this young age group- and we can not know the long term side effects of vaccination yet (long term means two years, but the vaccine was in phase III just last summer, so we have data for one year max) ? I just have a not so good feeling about this.

There have been cases with some long covid symptoms in kids who had no symptoms during the infection. I think trusting the real docs and experts might be the best approach. It seems likely the side effects of a real infection will be worse percent wise than that of the vaccine and we are talking about a virus that will most likely still infect close a 100% of the unvaccinated people because the anti-vaxxers will make herd immunity impossible even if it would be doable otherwise. Infection is not an if but a when question here imho which is different from most other vaccines. 

Edited by Luzifer's right hand

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27 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

Biontech/Pfizer applied  today at the EMA for approval of their vaccine for the 12-15 year old. It could be granted quite quickly (June?), but if will be September or so until the teenagers can get any vaccine.

I have to admit I am not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand this is really great news, herd immunity could be achieved so much quicker if we include these groups. On the other hand I do have two daughters and I am just unsure about the risk balance. while it totally makes sense for every adult to get vaccinated, I think there are close to zero cases of deaths in this young age group- and we can not know the long term side effects of vaccination yet (long term means two years, but the vaccine was in phase III just last summer, so we have data for one year max) ? I just have a not so good feeling about this.

My children are getting the vaccine as soon as it is available to them.  The very moment.

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I just got scheduled for my second shot next week.   I'm looking forward to it, but we have two small children so it won't significantly change our behavior.  My county has fallen BACK into phase 2, and is likely going to be in phase 1 at the rate we're going, so I don't trust anyone outside of my immediate group to actually be honest about the shots.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

My children are getting the vaccine as soon as it is available to them.  The very moment.

Same.

Even my borderline antivaxxer, 'I'm sick of covid' and other bullshit type fuckery inclined ex-wife is down with that [if only because the girls said they don't want to return to in-person schooling come September unless they're vaccinated] Our girls are 11 and 13. Even if ex changes her mind, they're getting the jab. I'll just do it and deal with her petty bullshit afterward.

Like go on and f u c k  a l l  t h e  w a y  o f f       

Edited by JEORDHl

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16 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Same.

Even my borderline antivaxxer, 'I'm sick of covid' and other bullshit type fuckery inclined ex-wife is down with that [if only because the girls said they don't want to return to in-person schooling come September unless they're vaccinated] Our girls are 11 and 13. Even if ex changes her mind, they're getting the jab. I'll just do it and deal with her petty bullshit afterward.

Like go on and f u c k  a l l  t h e  w a y  o f f       

Yeah, my daughters just turned 11.  I'm not sure they will be eligible by September (and we will send them to school), but I'm hoping they were be eligible before their next birthday (same for my son, who is younger).  

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17 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Yeah, my daughters just turned 11.  I'm not sure they will be eligible by September (and we will send them to school), but I'm hoping they were be eligible before their next birthday (same for my son, who is younger).  

Good point. I guess I took it as given that our kids would have vaccines before the end of summer, but that might've been wishful thinking.

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Partner just told me about reading a piece that says the reason so many don't return for their second injection is they are afraid of the reactions they've heard from so many of being sick for a day or two, and can't afford to miss that much work.  :crying:

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1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

Biontech/Pfizer applied  today at the EMA for approval of their vaccine for the 12-15 year old. It could be granted quite quickly (June?), but if will be September or so until the teenagers can get any vaccine.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic

One way to look at this is via how many 16-17 year olds have already gotten the vaccine.  I'm sure there is EU data available but I went to the US CDC website because there will be a bigger number vaccinated in the US.  1.8m people in that age group have already had the vaccine.   That's a lot for just 1 country.

I've not heard any concern about side-effects for that age group?  So, I would find that reassuring.  If it is fine for a 16 year old, why not a 13 year old?  And of course, Biontech/Pfizer has tested it on 12-15 years old also.

The head of Biontech said the following:

Quote

"In July, the first results for five to 12-year-olds could be available, and those for younger children in September," Mr Sahin said.

Ongoing trials so far are "very encouraging", he added, suggesting that "children are very well protected by the vaccine".

Assuming it takes 1 to 2 months to get approval, I could see 5 to 11 year olds being approved in Sept and younger children seeing approval by November.  So some countries should have offered everyone a vaccine by the end of the year.

By the way, why do you think teenagers wouldn't get vaccinated until September?  Because of supply?  I would have thought we'll be swimming in vaccines by July/Aug.  And governments will be determined to get kids vaccinated before school resumes.

Bloomberg suggested that the EU is (finally) close to signing a contract with Novavax (might be next week).  Now, admittedly, I thought it would have been approved in the UK by now and who knows how much will be available when it is approved (like Curevac), but its still a positive sign.

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ok, so just to make it clear I am not an antivaxxer. My children are vaccinated against everything where there was an official recommendation. I also am certainly not against Covid vaccinations AND I am also not in general against covid vaccination of children. I am also not saying that I will not have my children vaccinated (eventually?)

Having said that I think a good scientific risk/benefit analysis would be helpful in this case, because this seems to be a disease which does not kill children. How many have died nonetheless? How many have long Covid? how probable is it that the vaccination has side effects? There are side effects which only show in large numbers (like the cerebral blood clots of AZ which you didnt see in the phase III) and there are  side effects known in other vaccines which have shown symptoms only after a while. I would really like to have all this data and presumably all the data will not be there in September when it is time for a decision. Or to say it differently to commit here without all the data is not easy.

I also think that the recommendations by epidemologists in this case are not enough. From a epidemologist view it is clear that yes all children should be vaccinated, because this helps with herd immunity and so is good overall even if there are some seldom cases of side effects.

But children are children and should be protected at all costs and while you can ask an adult who is 20 and will likely not die of Covid to get vaccinated for the greater good and to accept the risk, you can not ask this of children. In my opinion it is only right to vaccinate them if their personal risk of covid is higher than their risk of vaccination. this is likely the case and so it is likely right to vaccinate. I only would really feel better if this was not only likely so but scientifically proven.

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43 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

ok, so just to make it clear I am not an antivaxxer. My children are vaccinated against everything where there was an official recommendation. I also am certainly not against Covid vaccinations AND I am also not in general against covid vaccination of children. I am also not saying that I will not have my children vaccinated (eventually?)

Having said that I think a good scientific risk/benefit analysis would be helpful in this case, because this seems to be a disease which does not kill children. How many have died nonetheless? How many have long Covid? how probable is it that the vaccination has side effects? There are side effects which only show in large numbers (like the cerebral blood clots of AZ which you didnt see in the phase III) and there are  side effects known in other vaccines which have shown symptoms only after a while. I would really like to have all this data and presumably all the data will not be there in September when it is time for a decision. Or to say it differently to commit here without all the data is not easy.

I also think that the recommendations by epidemologists in this case are not enough. From a epidemologist view it is clear that yes all children should be vaccinated, because this helps with herd immunity and so is good overall even if there are some seldom cases of side effects.

But children are children and should be protected at all costs and while you can ask an adult who is 20 and will likely not die of Covid to get vaccinated for the greater good and to accept the risk, you can not ask this of children. In my opinion it is only right to vaccinate them if their personal risk of covid is higher than their risk of vaccination. this is likely the case and so it is likely right to vaccinate. I only would really feel better if this was not only likely so but scientifically proven.

I dunno, from a risk benefit perspective, I’ll take the risks of Pfizer (which is what looks like we will have for younger humans in this country) v. The risks of Covid (including long Covid and/or death).  It’s a myth that kids or young people are not affected.  So, to protect my children I will get them vaccinated as soon as I can.  I would now if it were available. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

ok, so just to make it clear I am not an antivaxxer.

I apologize if my post hit you sidelong and triggered this, was only speaking about the ex. She's been one of the more frustrating issues to deal with during this covid interlude, which is tragically laughable when I think about it-- we had a massive row a couple months ago when I found out she'd been occasionally taking the girls to restaurants.

Outwardly, my daughters are both healthy. But who knows, comorbidities are weird are aren't always apparent in childhood unless blatant. Plus, these variants are no joke.

---

Me: These variants are no joke.

Ex: That's what everyone said about regular covid. I'm sick of it. I don't care if we get it.

Me: ... 

Me: I just fucking can't with this. No restaurants. PLEASE. [hangs up]

---

You have good reasons to want to wait, JL, I definitely fall in Zabzie's camp though. 

Edited by JEORDHl

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The risks of Pfizer vs the risks of no Pfizer + Covid threat is an overwhelmingly lopsided equation to me, bordering on no brainer.

Every eligible family member in our extended clan from childhood to geriatric age would be getting the 2 rounds of shots as soon as eligible if it were in my power to mandate.

I would be comfortable in a country that interns all non inocculated to an inland Florida swamp camp though . 

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Seeing as the risks to children are absolutely tiny, I wouldn’t blame anyone for being cautious about vaccinating young kids. Much more important to vaccinate those for whom the virus is a real danger 

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17 minutes ago, Toth said:

Except that there is a skyrocketing number of children who get PIMS after contracting Covid and that's absolutely no joking matter...

Define skyrocketing. The numbers I've seen suggest it is still very rare.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Define skyrocketing. The numbers I've seen suggest it is still very rare.

It is, but 100 cases per week in just the UK is still nasty for a syndrome that causes organ failure: https://www.dw.com/en/covid-more-cases-of-postviral-syndrome-in-uk-children/a-56523410

Meanwhile, as other users stated above, there are no drastic side effects that may result in death for Pfizer...

Edited by Toth

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3 hours ago, JoannaL said:

In my opinion it is only right to vaccinate them if their personal risk of covid is higher than their risk of vaccination. this is likely the case and so it is likely right to vaccinate. I only would really feel better if this was not only likely so but scientifically proven.

That does seem like the right sort of thing to weigh up. I understand that it's always better to have more data but based on what we do know it seems the a Pfizer vaccination should be the safer option. I suspect AstraZeneca probably won't even be suggested for children unless they can figure out what's causing the blood clots in some adults.

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