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divica

What were the objectives of the pink letter?

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So first of all, I know this has been discussed a lot but I wanted to make a list of all the things that the pink letter causes simply by jon sharing that information with the NW and wildlings (which he would have to do as they are being threatened by ramsay in the letter).

And I would like to assume there isn t some crazy conspiracy and therefore nobody outside of castle black knows about tormund and the thousands of wildlings that arrived a few days before the letter.

So list of consequences/objectives:

1) who wrote the PL clearly doesn t want jon to solve his problems with ramsay in a friendly way. Wether the writer knows that farya is jeyne or not there is no way that jon would hand over all those people to ramsay and therefore the letter will create problems for jon (it is interesting to note that there is no reason for ramsay to want ALL those people).

2) Jon would send all the listed people to essos as he thought to do to arya when he thought she was alys.

3)It would undermine jon's position within the NW and wildlings. Simply by telling them that mance is alive some NW would want to revolt against jon and some wildlings might abandon CB in order to try to rescue mance (even if there are less than a thousand wildlings around some of them would want to help their king any way they can).

4) It creates doubts about jon's honnor and word and therefore if he tries to say that farya is a fake the boltons have motives to question the veracity of jon's words.

5) By creating a situation where either they answer ramsays demands or they die it would provoke the NW into turning against jon and selise/mel. So simply by writing that letter someone could use the NW to kill/capture jon, selyse,mel, val, shireen, farya, reek and mance's son.

6) jon would need to defend CB to fight against ramsay or decide to ride to winterfell and answer for his actions there in order to protect the NW from an atack (if he can keep the NW under his control after all that is said in the PL).

If this is all that the PL achieves then I think there are only 2 people that could have any interest in writing it.

Obviously ramsay because it has the potential to solve his problems with jon saying that his arya is a fake and because he can gain hostages to use against stannis (if he is alive). 

And the second option is mance that could want the help of some wildlings in winterfell and spread the news that he isn t dead so that the wildlings keep seeing him as their king.

It is interesting to note that it might be better for the writer of the PL to send the letter befere farya and reek get to CB. This way if the NW revolt against jon because they prefer to meet the demands of the letter instead of fighting to the death then when farya and reek get to CB they can be safely captured. Otherwise jon could send them away before the NW do their coup...

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, divica said:

If this is all that the PL achieves then I think there are only 2 people that could have any interest in writing it.

Obviously ramsay because it has the potential to solve his problems with jon saying that his arya is a fake and because he can gain hostages to use against stannis (if he is alive). 

Ramsay hasn't much of a brain. If he wrote it (and this is the solution I like) - it was a genuine brain storm, and he did intend to go to war against the Wall.

Treating Ramsay and Roose as a team also works well. Roose doesn't want to throw his armies against the Wall. He prefers trickery and treachery (Duskendale) - so he could have forged the letter, or even just intercepted the letter, seen the potential and forwarded it on.

Mance is a bit unknowable. A tricky scheme for an outsider.

Edited by Springwatch
word

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Posted (edited)

I really doubt in truthfulness of the letter, if Ramsey/Boltons smashed Stannis forces soundly ,  He would be in strong position and enjoy nothing more than to hunt down his bride and Reek with his hounds. Why then send letter to Lord Commander  and also spoiling his intentions about Mance's and Stannis family enabling them to escape?

Edited by Eltharion21
Grammar

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1 hour ago, Eltharion21 said:

I really doubt in truthfulness of the letter, if Ramsey/Boltons smashed Stannis forces soundly ,  He would be in strong position and enjoy nothing more than to hunt down his bride and Reek with his hounds. Why then send letter to Lord Commander  and also spoiling his intentions about Mance's and Stannis family enabling them to escape?

I am not discussing the veracity of the letter. Just what the sender wanted to achieve by sending the letter. So most of what is written the can be false... 

However the Boltons seem to be the ones that have most to gain with the letter by a long margin. If we assume they aren t in a position to catch farya and Reek they need to do something to stop Jon from exposing them. And the Pl not only makes Jon a liar but also puts him in danger of getting killed. And if the letter gets to the wall before farya and Reek it is even better... 

And I think that the sender doesn t really want all those people. For example, why would he want selyse if Stannis is dead? She would be useless. 

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2 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Ramsay hasn't much of a brain. If he wrote it (and this is the solution I like) - it was a genuine brain storm, and he did intend to go to war against the Wall.

Treating Ramsay and Roose as a team also works well. Roose doesn't want to throw his armies against the Wall. He prefers trickery and treachery (Duskendale) - so he could have forged the letter, or even just intercepted the letter, seen the potential and forwarded it on.

Mance is a bit unknowable. A tricky scheme for an outsider.

I could totally see roose being the inspiration behind the letter. But I don t think that it is a realy out of the box idea. 

Everyone know that the NW is full of criminals that recently killed their LC and that the wildlings are savages that hate the NW. By sending that letter it scares the hell of the NW forcing them to fight to the death for a cause that isn t theirs or to turn against Jon. The wildlings would also have cause to turn against Jon because they think he lied to them against them. 

In addition it makes Jon loose his credibility and support because the NW would also turn against him for releasing mance. 

It was very likely that people would want to kill Jon and if possible get the people ramsay wants for him. And even if they fail who would believe Jon about farya after he lied about mance? 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, divica said:

I am not discussing the veracity of the letter. Just what the sender wanted to achieve by sending the letter. So most of what is written the can be false... 

However the Boltons seem to be the ones that have most to gain with the letter by a long margin. If we assume they aren t in a position to catch farya and Reek they need to do something to stop Jon from exposing them. And the Pl not only makes Jon a liar but also puts him in danger of getting killed. And if the letter gets to the wall before farya and Reek it is even better... 

And I think that the sender doesn t really want all those people. For example, why would he want selyse if Stannis is dead? She would be useless. 

Yep but make note that letter came sealed and Jon himself decided to read it in front of other people. 

Goal of the letter could be either to threaten Lord Commander in giving the hostages, or inciting Lord Commander to get involved in conflict with Boltons depending on who wrote it, there are good theories supporting either.

Edited by Eltharion21

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

Yep but make note that letter came sealed and Jon himself decided to read it in front of other people. 

Goal of the letter could be either to threaten Lord Commander in giving the hostages, or inciting Lord Commander to get involved in conflict with Boltons depending on who wrote it, there are good theories supporting either.

However Jon would need to tell people what is written in the letter. Ramsay just said he was going to March to CB  and therefore Jon has to prepare the NW for it. He can t just hide the letter. 

In regards to wanting the LC to give hostages I strongly disagree. There is no way that Jon would give all those people to ramsay. If the objective was to get hostages the sender needed to ask for less people. 

And the problem with wanting to get Jon involved in the conflict with the Boltons is that he didn t have the means to do it. As I said in the OP nobody knows about tormund and his 4k wildlings. Jon would bring nothing to the conflict... 

Edited by divica

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Pink Letter was written by Ramsay. If anything does not add with that up, blame it on the fact that ADwD was released a good year or two before it was actually finished.

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The pink letter was Ramsay's response to Jon meddling in his business.  Which Jon had no right to do.  Jon started the feud and caused problems for the Boltons.  Ramsay wants his bride and his Reek back.  Selyse, Shireen, Mel, and the men who supported Stannis are rebels.  The victor is asking them to give up and surrender.  Jon got caught with his pants down and doing something he should not have.  His operatives got caught in the act of doing something illegal.  They were acting on his orders.  The crows would impeach Jon and behead him if they had the luxury of time.  Jon will not give them that luxury.  He had the wildlings on his side.  He was preparing to attack the Boltons.  Bowen Marsh had to act fast to prevent more of Jon's craziness from doing further harm.  The pink letter doesn't have a deep agenda.  Ramsay reacted to Jon's aggression and offered reasonable terms to avoid further conflict.  Jon chose war instead of peace.   

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, divica said:

However Jon would need to tell people what is written in the letter. Ramsay just said he was going to March to CB  and therefore Jon has to prepare the NW for it. He can t just hide the letter. 

In regards to wanting the LC to give hostages I strongly disagree. There is no way that Jon would give all those people to ramsay. If the objective was to get hostages the sender needed to ask for less people. 

And the problem with wanting to get Jon involved in the conflict with the Boltons is that he didn t have the means to do it. As I said in the OP nobody knows about tormund and his 4k wildlings. Jon would bring nothing to the conflict... 

If Ramsey wrote it really , than how he would know that Jon wouldn't give people that are demanding as they have little knowledge of each other?

Mance Ryder likely knows about Tormund and his remaining strength, he also was secretly present in Winterfell during the Robert's visit where he could have also had involvement with Valyrian dagger/catspaw/Bran - in my opinion Stark/Baratheon conflict portented by Stag and Direwolf killing each other is yet to happen, maybe even repeat of Night's King vs King Beyond the Wall and Stark.

Wording of the letter is also odd and people he demands- mostly Val and Mance's son .

Quote

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

 

Edited by Eltharion21

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2 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

If Ramsey wrote it really , than how he would know that Jon wouldn't give people that are demanding as they have little knowledge of each other?

Because nobody would give farya, reek, selyse, mel, a baby, val and shireen to someone they hated. And by torturing mance/spearwives ramsay would learn quite a bit about jon.

5 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

Mance Ryder likely knows about Tormund and his remaining strength

Unless there is something very weird going on it is impossible. Mance has no way of knowing that tormund will arrive at the wall or how many men he will bring with him because he left before val...

31 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

Wording of the letter is also odd and people he demands- mostly Val and Mance's son

You find those demands weird? why the hell did he want selise and mel? They are useless to him. At least val and the baby might be useful to create bons with the wildlings. But this is moot because the amount of peoples asked and the wording of the letter made sure that jon would never give him those people.

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One of two scenarios:

 

1. It is direct and intentional in its meaning. No hidden agendas, other than Ramsay goading a fight.

2. Someone is trying to politik Jon Snow (and likely the Wildlings with him) to leave the wall to enter the fray. For which it would have to be a Stannis supporter or Stark supporter.

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Ramsay claims to have Mance in the letter. Mance helped to abduct his wife. Of course Ramsay wants everybody connected to Mance to get his revenge - hence Val, Mance's sister-in-law, and Mance's own son.

The same with Stannis. Regardless whether he is dead or not - the Boltons would want Stannis' family to wrap things up and ensure his people would not continue the fight in the name of his daughter or wife.

And Mel has to be punished simply because for being the architect of the Mance plan. Not to mention that she is actually a pretty dangerous person who could also continue the war in her own name.

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I think Ramsay sent the letter to bait and troll Jon. I don’t think Ramsay won against Stannis and he is looking for hostages against him. I don’t think Ramsay was going march and he was expecting Jon to make the first move. Either to march to winterfell and die (I believe there was a blizzard). Or castle black would not want to March and kill Jon then surrender the hostages to Ramsay

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, divica said:

Because nobody would give farya, reek, selyse, mel, a baby, val and shireen to someone they hated. And by torturing mance/spearwives ramsay would learn quite a bit about jon.

Unless there is something very weird going on it is impossible. Mance has no way of knowing that tormund will arrive at the wall or how many men he will bring with him because he left before val...

You find those demands weird? why the hell did he want selise and mel? They are useless to him. At least val and the baby might be useful to create bons with the wildlings. But this is moot because the amount of peoples asked and the wording of the letter made sure that jon would never give him those people.

I don't pretend to claim absolutes like you do , many people have given believable theories for multiple explanations.

Mance Ryder didn't become King of the Wildlings from the NIght's Watch traitor for nothing, which is hardly a small achievement. He was present in Stannis camp while glamored as Rattleshirt and is familiar with situation on the Wall. Mance was in contact with Val before he was sent to Winterfell , also he  is aware what Wildlings that are loyal to him still remain ( Tormund .

Ramsey  would want Stannis family since Boltons want to take care of last remnants of Baratheon rebellion - and to get hostages to use in their negotiation with whoever rules King's Landing as Frey's were sent as proxy of the Crown to deal with it - as seen with their arrival to White Harbor. Shireen is important hostage as she has blood of Kings and might prolong the War.

If Ramsey sent it deliberately as ultimatum to Jon, it might be with unreasonable demands, insults and threats to make pretense to declare hostility against Night Watch as he suspects them in aiding Stannis.

 

Edited by Eltharion21

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

I don't pretend to claim absolutes like you do , many people have given believable theories for multiple explanations.

I think it depends on what you consider belivable. The point is after reading that letter nobody with honor would give ramsay the people he asks for.

29 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

Mance Ryder didn't become King of the Wildlings from the NIght's Watch traitor for nothing, which is hardly a small achievement. He was present in Stannis camp while glamored as Rattleshirt and is familiar with situation on the Wall. Mance was in contact with Val before he was sent to Winterfell , also he  is aware what Wildlings that are loyal to him still remain ( Tormund .

I am 99% sure he wasn t in contact with val. He had no way of knowing jon would send val north of the wall to get wildlings, when he would do it or when they would return. And do you know what mance thinks of tormund?

Quote

The wildling's own eyes narrowed. Grey eyes, brown eyes; Melisandre could see the color change with each pulse of the ruby. "Cutting out the eyes, that's the Weeper's work. The best crow's a blind crow, he likes to say. Sometimes I think he'd like to cut out his own eyes, the way they're always watering and itching. Snow's been assuming the free folk would turn to Tormund to lead them, because that's what he would do. He liked Tormund, and the old fraud liked him too. If it's the Weeper, though … that's not good. Not for him, and not for us."

If he thinks of tormund as a fraud I don t think he has him in very high regards...

 

And mance is one of the few people that is worried about what the weeper could do to the NW. He has few reasons to think they weren t under attack...

29 minutes ago, Eltharion21 said:

Ramsey  would want Stannis family since Boltons want to take care of last remnants of Baratheon rebellion - and to get hostages to use in their negotiation with whoever rules King's Landing as Frey's were sent as proxy of the Crown to deal with it - as seen with their arrival to White Harbor. Shireen is important hostage as she has blood of Kings and might prolong the War.

Shireen is important. But selise? mel? they are both pretty useless if stannis is dead. Even shireen is of limited value because the boltons care about the north. If stannis family leaves the north and goes wage their war somewhere else they would be pretty happy.

 

Edited by divica

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34 minutes ago, Crona said:

I think Ramsay sent the letter to bait and troll Jon. I don’t think Ramsay won against Stannis and he is looking for hostages against him. I don’t think Ramsay was going march and he was expecting Jon to make the first move. Either to march to winterfell and die (I believe there was a blizzard). Or castle black would not want to March and kill Jon then surrender the hostages to Ramsay

If we want to think of things as simple as possible I think that the most obvious reason to write the letter is to turn the NW and wildlings against jon and to:

1) make the wildlings revolt against jon because he is a liar and mance is still alive

2) make the NW kill jon because he is a liar, possible traitor and if they don t kill jon and answer ramsay's demands then they are dead and the NW is finished.

This would stop jon from revealing that farya is a fake. If the plan doesn t work at the very least jon loses credit and if he decides to tell the northern lords that farya isn t is sister the bolton have grounds to call him a liar.

Wether what is written in the letter is true or false this is one of the most obvious consequences of the letter in my opinion. And it only benefits the boltons.

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56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Ramsay claims to have Mance in the letter. Mance helped to abduct his wife. Of course Ramsay wants everybody connected to Mance to get his revenge - hence Val, Mance's sister-in-law, and Mance's own son.

The same with Stannis. Regardless whether he is dead or not - the Boltons would want Stannis' family to wrap things up and ensure his people would not continue the fight in the name of his daughter or wife.

And Mel has to be punished simply because for being the architect of the Mance plan. Not to mention that she is actually a pretty dangerous person who could also continue the war in her own name.

yeah, but what do you think was the objective in sending the letter?

Forget who you think sent the letter. If you assume that nobody outside of castle black know about tormund and his 4k wildlings (and this is the most probable scenario) what would be the objective in sending that letter? Do you agree with the OP?

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A question: Generally maesters send ravens. Winterfell has no maester ATM. Tybald, who serves the Dreadfort, was captured by Stannis. What maesters are available at the time of the pink letter and to whom? Are we meant to assume that Tybald was set free, or that other maesters abound.... I am just really unsure if the Boltons actually have access to a maester in order to send such a message if Tybald was not returned to them.

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31 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

A question: Generally maesters send ravens. Winterfell has no maester ATM. Tybald, who serves the Dreadfort, was captured by Stannis. What maesters are available at the time of the pink letter and to whom? Are we meant to assume that Tybald was set free, or that other maesters abound.... I am just really unsure if the Boltons actually have access to a maester in order to send such a message if Tybald was not returned to them.

acording to the asoiaf search

Quote
That pleased her. She took a sip of wine, her dark eyes sparkling, and said, "The widow of Barrowton … and yes, if I so choose, I could be an inconvenience. Of course, Roose sees that too, so he takes care to keep me sweet."
She might have said more, but then she saw the maesters. Three of them had entered together by the lord's door behind the dais—one tall, one plump, one very young, but in their robes and chains they were three grey peas from a black pod. Before the war, Medrick had served Lord Hornwood, Rhodry Lord Cerwyn, and young Henly Lord Slate. Roose Bolton had brought them all to Winterfell to take charge of Luwin's ravens, so messages might be sent and received from here again.

 

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