What were the objectives of the pink letter?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, divica said:

I seriously doubt that. Is there any proof in the text?

You are not asking that seriously, no?

1 hour ago, divica said:

To it seems the boltons aren t really blamed by the red wedding. Even jon doesn t hate roose for example.

Jon doesn't know anything about the Red Wedding. But the people at Winterfell do know - the castle is full with men who were at the Red Wedding, after all. And those are not just the Freys. The idea that those people do not talk among each other is not ... very likely.

1 hour ago, divica said:

The problem with the freys is that all the north will hate him while they are around. He has to get rid of them if he hopes to control the north. And the objective was to have an aliance. Ramsay can have babies, roose can marry for the northern suport.

The Freys would return back home after the war is won. Nobody intended to settle them in the North. And the lords at Winterfell came despite the fact that Roose had the Freys with him.

1 hour ago, divica said:

And while the freys are around will roose ever have peace? Won t his bannerman demand vengeance against them eventually?  

LOL, what? The vengeance they would want is Roose's and Ramsay's heads on spikes. They would not stop just demanding the death of the Freys.

Roose Bolton is a kingslayer. He personally slew Robb Stark. That may not be public knowledge but Roose's men do know that, and people talk.

1 hour ago, divica said:

I meant more bolton men marching if the freys are defeated.

Theon expects that Ramsay will come after the Manderlys and the Freys. Whether that's accurate or not we don't know, but it wouldn't make sense to expect that the Boltons would just continue to sit in the castle and just trust whatever reports the Manderys and Freys sent back.

1 hour ago, divica said:

And wether the weather changes or not we are talking about a daily cold count of 60 in a southern army between 300 and 600 men (if my memory about previous topics is right). Each day he looses 10 to 20% of his army. Even if the situation changes stannis will loose around 50% of his remaining men before he reaches winterfell.

Stannis doesn't hang out in that camp all that long. The cold counts we get would be problematic if it did not change. But that's not exactly sure. And he  came north with about 1,500 men, not just 300-600.

1 hour ago, divica said:

Not realy. We never hear mance or mel saying that stannis know that he his alive. And the manderlys have 0 ways to convince mance that they didn t kill davos.

Actually, we do have such hints. Stannis allows Rattleshirt at his councils after Mance started to impersonate him (what for, if he doesn't trust the guy?), Stannis' trusted men were involved in faking Mance's death - do you think they did that without their king knowing about it? Stannis forces Rattleshirt-Mance on Jon and completely ignores his objections - if he didn't know who Rattleshirt was he would agree with Jon that the guy sucked. Melisandre wouldn't betray Stannis like that. And so on and so forth.

And of course the Manderlys could convince Mance that they didn't kill Davos - the same way they plan to convince Stannis. By having a letter in Davos' handwriting, say. Mance could also have figured out/been told what was actually in the pig pies and what Wyman Manderly did in Winterfell (assuming his men had a hand in the murder of Little Walder).

[divica]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis doesn't hang out in that camp all that long. The cold counts we get would be problematic if it did not change. But that's not exactly sure. And he  came north with about 1,500 men, not just 300-600.

He came with 1500 but he has lost a lot of men in this march. 

Quote

Justin Massey looked up from his horsemeat. "The cold count last night reached eighty." He pulled a piece of gristle from his teeth and flicked it to the nearest dog. "If we march, we will die by the hundreds."

"We will die by the thousands if we stay here," said Ser Humfrey Clifton. "Press on or die, I say."

Quote

Your place is where I say it is. I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue

The last quote is from theon I in winds. So yes, stannis should have around 500 southerns with dozens dying each night until the freys arrive (almost 100 a night). And even after I don't think the resources of 2000k men (some of these resources will be lost) will improve dramastically the living conditions of 5k men in stannis camp.

And as they say, if they march hundreds more will die. So yes, just to reach winterfell stannis will lose a great precentage of his remaining southerns. That is one of the reasons that stannis is fucked no matter what happens. The odds of any northman swearing fealty to him as their king when he will have nearly no men at arms is laughable.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You are not asking that seriously, no?

Yes I am. No matter what you think I don t remember northern characters thinking that roose is responsable for the RW. Try to look for a quote of someone in the north blaming them.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon doesn't know anything about the Red Wedding. But the people at Winterfell do know - the castle is full with men who were at the Red Wedding, after all. And those are not just the Freys. The idea that those people do not talk among each other is not ... very likely.

Likely or not, I don t remember anyone in the north mentioning that the boltons are hated or responsable for the RW.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Freys would return back home after the war is won. Nobody intended to settle them in the North. And the lords at Winterfell came despite the fact that Roose had the Freys with him.

They came because roose at the moment is too strong with suport of the freys and the IT that probably still had hostages from those lords. They didn t have much choice. But with stannis looking for allies and hostages being released roose has to solidify his power base.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, what? The vengeance they would want is Roose's and Ramsay's heads on spikes. They would not stop just demanding the death of the Freys.

Roose Bolton is a kingslayer. He personally slew Robb Stark. That may not be public knowledge but Roose's men do know that, and people talk.

Again, find a quote where northmen blame them for the RW.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Theon expects that Ramsay will come after the Manderlys and the Freys. Whether that's accurate or not we don't know, but it wouldn't make sense to expect that the Boltons would just continue to sit in the castle and just trust whatever reports the Manderys and Freys sent back.

Actually, what makes sense is for ramsay to set a trap for the returning manderleys and freys and kill them all. It will be funny when he catches stannis instead.

Anything diferent from this doesn t make sense because theon doesn t think that ramsay will come to lead the fight or reinforce the freys and manderleys. He thinks that ramsay will come after them and that he is dangerous. Given that roose is expecting an easy victory for the freys, manderly and karstark aliance it only makes sense to send ramsay out if ramsay is suposed to attack them on their return.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, divica said:

He came with 1500 but he has lost a lot of men in this march. 

The last quote is from theon I in winds. So yes, stannis should have around 500 southerns with dozens dying each night until the freys arrive (almost 100 a night). And even after I don't think the resources of 2000k men (some of these resources will be lost) will improve dramastically the living conditions of 5k men in stannis camp.

Oh, you confuse things there ... the cold count in total reached eighty, not the cold count last night.

We would have to have a completely different situation if nearly a hundred of people died each night.

And the question about marching depends on the situation - marching to Winterfell without first winning those battles at the village would be suicide. But pressing on then might be very liberating because the marching men will know they will win/already have won.

9 minutes ago, divica said:

Likely or not, I don t remember anyone in the north mentioning that the boltons are hated or responsable for the RW.

Why do you think the clansmen want to bathe in Bolton blood before they die?

9 minutes ago, divica said:

Anything diferent from this doesn t make sense because theon doesn t think that ramsay will come to lead the fight or reinforce the freys and manderleys. He thinks that ramsay will come after them and that he is dangerous. Given that roose is expecting an easy victory for the freys, manderly and karstark aliance it only makes sense to send ramsay out if ramsay is suposed to attack them on their return.

That might happening in your book, but not in George's according to the characters George has written. The consensus is that the Boltons will send their own men after Stannis ... and there is no indication that the Boltons want to kill the Freys or even the Manderlys.

[divica]

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, you confuse things there ... the cold count in total reached eighty, not the cold count last night.

We would have to have a completely different situation if nearly a hundred of people died each night.

And the question about marching depends on the situation - marching to Winterfell without first winning those battles at the village would be suicide. But pressing on then might be very liberating because the marching men will know they will win/already have won.

No, this was discussed years ago and through the information from other asha chapters it was concluded that it must be the daily cold count. Why do you think people are desperate to march to winterfell? They have no food and aren t prepared to survive in that weather. The situation is that bleak.

And what you are saying makes no sense. People are dying because they are famished, weak, sick or can't survive in that weather. Wining a battle doesn t change that. And marching to winterfel without food or siege weapons wouldn t feel liberating to anyone. You clearly aren t seeing how bleak stannis situation is.

ps Why do you think they are sacrificing people to fires? becuase last night 4 or 5 people died?

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Why do you think the clansmen want to bathe in Bolton blood before they die?

Because people don't like the boltons.Besides they think they are saving arya from the boltons. They never mention avenging the RW. And it is preferable to die fighting instead of

Quote

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned's little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die.

And this is another reason why the clansmen wouldn t like a march to winterfell. If they wanted to die a miserable death from the cold they could do it at home.

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That might happening in your book, but not in George's according to the characters George has written. The consensus is that the Boltons will send their own men after Stannis ... and there is no indication that the Boltons want to kill the Freys or even the Manderlys.

What consensus? Nobody even knows if theon is right... We only know that sending ramsay after the freys and manderleys whithout him participating in the battle makes no sense. What would be the point of sending ramsay out with an army?

[Only 89 selfies today]

The Boltons wanted fake Arya back.  She was important to their political ambitions.  The other listed people are bonus material. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, divica said:

No, this was discussed years ago and through the information from other asha chapters it was concluded that it must be the daily cold count. Why do you think people are desperate to march to winterfell? They have no food and aren t prepared to survive in that weather. The situation is that bleak.

If there were nearly a hundred people dying per day the situation wouldn't be just be 'bleak'. They would be sitting on a gigantic heap of corpses. That really makes no sense.

9 hours ago, divica said:

And what you are saying makes no sense. People are dying because they are famished, weak, sick or can't survive in that weather. Wining a battle doesn t change that. And marching to winterfel without food or siege weapons wouldn t feel liberating to anyone. You clearly aren t seeing how bleak stannis situation is.

Of course, it would change the situation, because an enemy army marching there would bring fresh supplies.

9 hours ago, divica said:

ps Why do you think they are sacrificing people to fires? becuase last night 4 or 5 people died?

No, because a bunch of dudes practiced cannibalism ... which is right there, in the text.

9 hours ago, divica said:

Because people don't like the boltons.Besides they think they are saving arya from the boltons. They never mention avenging the RW. And it is preferable to die fighting instead of

And this is another reason why the clansmen wouldn t like a march to winterfell. If they wanted to die a miserable death from the cold they could do it at home.

The clansmen have no issue marching. They still have their horses and they have provisions. They don't even consider this snowstorm winter weather.

9 hours ago, divica said:

What consensus? Nobody even knows if theon is right... We only know that sending ramsay after the freys and manderleys whithout him participating in the battle makes no sense. What would be the point of sending ramsay out with an army?

It is the impression we are getting ... and it is also what the Pink Letter implied. It didn't state the Freys defeated Stannis but implies that Ramsay/the Boltons did that.

[divica]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If there were nearly a hundred people dying per day the situation wouldn't be just be 'bleak'. They would be sitting on a gigantic heap of corpses. That really makes no sense.

Of course it makes sense. People are dying by the heaps because of the cold, sickness, lack of food and not being able to live in that weather. If your problem is what happens to that heap of bodies clearly an army has people that care of dead bodies...

Read the text, the clues and desperation about the situation are all there. Even stannis saying he has 500 swordsmen as good or better than justin is hinting at how many have died.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, it would change the situation, because an enemy army marching there would bring fresh supplies.

Ah, now you care about supplies?

If you had read what I wrote earlier when you didn t care about supplies you would notice a problem. How helpfull are the suplies of 2K people marching on horseback for 5K people that would march on foot (the marching time for the freys would be much less than stannis)?

I doubt if the supplies from the freys wouldn't last more than 1 or 2 days. Then we would be back to killing horses.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, because a bunch of dudes practiced cannibalism ... which is right there, in the text.

I am sorry?

Quote

"R'hllor," Ser Godry sang, "we give you now four evil men. With glad hearts and true, we give them to your cleansing fires, that the darkness in their souls might be burned away. Let their vile flesh be seared and blackened, that their spirits might rise free and pure to ascend into the light. Accept their blood, Oh lord, and melt the icy chains that bind your servants. Hear their pain, and grant strength to our swords that we might shed the blood of your enemies. Accept this sacrifice, and show us the way to Winterfell, that we might vanquish the unbelievers."

"Lord of Light, accept this sacrifice," a hundred voices echoed. Ser Corliss lit the first pyre with the torch, then thrust it into the wood at the base of the second. A few wisps of smoke began to rise. The captives began to cough. The first flames appeared, shy as maidens, darting and dancing from log to leg. In moments both the stakes were engulfed in fire.

They wanted to burn people even earlier...

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

"R'hllor," Ser Godry sang, "we give you now four evil men. With glad hearts and true, we give them to your cleansing fires, that the darkness in their souls might be burned away. Let their vile flesh be seared and blackened, that their spirits might rise free and pure to ascend into the light. Accept their blood, Oh lord, and melt the icy chains that bind your servants. Hear their pain, and grant strength to our swords that we might shed the blood of your enemies. Accept this sacrifice, and show us the way to Winterfell, that we might vanquish the unbelievers."

"Lord of Light, accept this sacrifice," a hundred voices echoed. Ser Corliss lit the first pyre with the torch, then thrust it into the wood at the base of the second. A few wisps of smoke began to rise. The captives began to cough. The first flames appeared, shy as maidens, darting and dancing from log to leg. In moments both the stakes were engulfed in fire.

Are you serious? Do you really think that if the clansmen had provisions the southerns wouldn t be fighting with them for food? That stannis would let his southerns starve and die while part of his army had food? That makes no sense...

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is the impression we are getting ... and it is also what the Pink Letter implied. It didn't state the Freys defeated Stannis but implies that Ramsay/the Boltons did that.

The PL doesn't give the impression that ramsay left winterfell with an army after the manderleys and freys had their battle and he tought that stannis was defeated. There is no logical reason for ramsay to do this besides preparing a trap for the returning manderleys and freys.

And I like that you quit trying to find northmen blaming the boltons about the RW!

edit: look at this discussion

Quote

Justin Massey looked up from his horsemeat. "The cold count last night reached eighty." He pulled a piece of gristle from his teeth and flicked it to the nearest dog. "If we march, we will die by the hundreds."

"We will die by the thousands if we stay here," said Ser Humfrey Clifton. "Press on or die, I say."

Do you think this discussion makes sense if 3 or 4 people died last night because of the cold? And don't forget that people have been dying everyday since the beguining of the march because of the cold.

[Jaenara Belarys]

On 4/23/2021 at 3:09 PM, divica said:

That is one of the problems with all this. Roose was quite happy sending the freys away and getting rid of them. 

 

Can't blame him. And the loss of a few Freys is no biggie, we have a thousand more down at the Twins. 

On 4/23/2021 at 3:41 PM, Lord Varys said:

It is still the plan, and we do know that Hosteen Frey is right now marching against Stannis from one of the leaked chapters.

 

It's still freaking madness. You can't fight very well in snowdrifts. Especially weighed down by armor, fur, stuff....

[divica]

On 4/24/2021 at 2:48 AM, Lord Varys said:

That might happening in your book, but not in George's according to the characters George has written. The consensus is that the Boltons will send their own men after Stannis ... and there is no indication that the Boltons want to kill the Freys or even the Manderlys.

Quote

"We should take the fight to him," declared a Frey.

Do that, Theon thought. Ride out into the snow and die. Leave Winterfell to me and the ghosts. Roose Bolton would welcome such a fight, he sensed. He needs an end to this. The castle was too crowded to withstand a long siege, and too many of the lords here were of uncertain loyalty. Fat Wyman Manderly, Whoresbane Umber, the men of House Hornwood and House Tallhart, the Lockes and Flints and Ryswells, all of them were northmen, sworn to House Stark for generations beyond count. It was the girl who held them here, Lord Eddard's blood, but the girl was just a mummer's ploy, a lamb in a direwolf's skin. So why not send the northmen forth to battle Stannis before the farce unraveled? Slaughter in the snow. And every man who falls is one less foe for the Dreadfort.

This is what grrm wrote in his books. You need to do read some parts of the books again. It isn't the first time that you have forgotten what is actually written in the books...

 

[Lord Varys]

On 4/29/2021 at 9:57 PM, divica said:

This is what grrm wrote in his books. You need to do read some parts of the books again. It isn't the first time that you have forgotten what is actually written in the books...

LOL, you do realize that the same Theon who 'sensed' that later also thinks that Ramsay is going to follow the Manderlys and the Freys, right?

And it is also kind of obvious why he would change his view on that ... because Theon himself stole 'Arya'. And the Boltons desperately need her back.

If they fail at that the Boltons could defeat Stannis and still lose the North.

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 4/18/2021 at 10:39 AM, Aline de Gavrillac said:

The pink letter was Ramsay's response to Jon meddling in his business.  Which Jon had no right to do.  Jon started the feud and caused problems for the Boltons.  Ramsay wants his bride and his Reek back.  Selyse, Shireen, Mel, and the men who supported Stannis are rebels.  The victor is asking them to give up and surrender.  Jon got caught with his pants down and doing something he should not have.  His operatives got caught in the act of doing something illegal.  They were acting on his orders.  The crows would impeach Jon and behead him if they had the luxury of time.  Jon will not give them that luxury.  He had the wildlings on his side.  He was preparing to attack the Boltons.  Bowen Marsh had to act fast to prevent more of Jon's craziness from doing further harm.  The pink letter doesn't have a deep agenda.  Ramsay reacted to Jon's aggression and offered reasonable terms to avoid further conflict.  Jon chose war instead of peace.   

War with the Bolton's was the last thing the watch needed. 

Ramsay is not familiar enough with Jon to know how the other man would react. What he knows about the wall and wildlings came from Mance. Torture will break even a strong man. Ramsay expected the watch to accept the terms of his letter. Only idiots would trade the safety of all for a sister or brother.

[Hug-hammer]

It was written by Ramsay.

And in my opinion this letter is the reason that will put Rose Bolton and his son in conflict. 
Roose often blames Ramsay for his impulsiveness and inability to foresee the long-term consequences of his actions and by playing with theon and jeyne poole the way he did, he just got it in the ass.
Roose is not going to be happy to learn that farya and theon have escaped and even the will to wage war on the night's watch, they have enough enemies already, why add more unnecessarily just because of Ramsay's sadism?
Because the whole north actually thinks arya is the real thing, it could go very badly for the boltons, if it turns out they lied about their identities, plus if they attack an old and respected order in the north like the night's watch ( ramsay is crazy ,jon snow a fool), the whole north will rise up against the boltons. 

The reason roose legitimized Ramsay was so he could marry farya To strengthen their power in the north. now that she's gone. Ramsay is no longer of any use except as a troublesome heir, plus fat walda's child is born.
So either roose will kill ramsay or it will be the other way around. 

I think it is Ramsay who will kill him first. 
Rose's death will be like robb stark's. 
He was betrayed and stabbed when he least expected it.
He is too confident that ramsay will always be his pet and that he will do nothing against him.

[three-eyed monkey]

The objective of the Pink Letter is to bring Jon to Winterfell. That should be clear regardless of who you think the author is.

Twice the letter tells Jon directly, come see your friends heads on the walls, and come see Mance in a cage. It highlights Ramsay's cruel nature, making cloaks of women, which does not sit well with Jon. And it taunts Jon about Winterfell, Lord Eddard's seat, now belonging to Ramsay. It is designed to antagonize Jon into attacking Ramsay, given that the proxy-war he had been waging through Stannis had failed, according to the letter at least.

If Jon swallows the bait and takes action, then he breaks his Night's Watch vows. The letter had the desired effect, but what the author could not have foreseen was the unintended consequence that arose.

If the objective of the letter was to bring Jon to Winterfell, then we should feel safe in the assumption that the letter was sent from Winterfell, because the author is obviously trying to get Jon to come to them. Also, we know there are ravens at Winterfell, so there's no problem in that regard.

So who at Winterfell has an interest in bringing Jon to the castle? There are actually a number of parties that could fit for a variety of reasons. The Boltons might want Jon to answer for his crimes, etc. That's certainly how it appears on the surface. But then there are northern lords who want Jon to be king, some people have suggested that Lady Dustin or Lord Umber might be the author. And of course there is Mance, who might need rescuing, or perhaps he has another scheme in mind.   

However, if you understand the very first passage of the letter, then I think it is very clear who the letter comes from.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

So the claim is that Stannis is dead, Ramsay has Lightbringer, tell Mel.

Why tell Mel? A simple taunt aimed at shattering her illusions about her beliefs. What would Mel have thought when she read the letter. Damn, I wasted my life? No. She would know the letter is a lie. Stannis is alive. This passage should call you back to previous passages in the text.

“Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!"

Mel has told Stannis that she has seen him wielding Lightbringer in the final battle. So how could he be dead and Ramsay have the sword? That scenario contradicts her vision. You might say well Mel's belief might be shifting to Jon, and that may be true, but the point is that Stannis believes Mel is certain of this. And he's pretty much right.

"Would you know if the king was dead?" Jon asked the red priestess.

"He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord's chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy."

And that's only the first passage. The most compelling evidence is "I want my bride back. I want my Reek." This is a verbatim quote, necessary change of person aside, from a conversation between Stannis and Theon, which should suggest it comes from one of these two. But then Theon would not be sending a coded message to Mel as presented above, only Stannis would.

Throughout Dance, Stannis has largely been concerned with winning the north. He wants Jon's fealty so that he can bind the North to his cause but Jon has repeatedly refused to swear his sword to the king, citing his Night's Watch vows as the reason. So Stannis has plenty of motive to get Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell. No, not the crofter's village. Winterfell.

Stannis will win the Battle of Ice, and take Winterfell before he writes and sends the letter. The timeline has been scrambled a little because some chapters from Dance had to be bumped to Winds. When he takes the castle and is besieged by Robett Glover who commands the main northern strength, which was being held in reserve, he will need Jon to come and finally accept his offer of Winterfell. It's the only way Stannis can win the North and lift the siege. And this time Jon won't be able to use his vows as an excuse given that he'll have just broken them.

Stannis is a strategist and he's using what we would consider a common Hegelian strategy here, often known as problem-reaction-solution. The pink letter causes the problem, Jon reacts by breaking his vows and riding to Winterfell, Stannis provides the solution, which is a pardon for oathbreaking, a crime punishable by death, if he accepts the kings offer. That puts Jon between a rock and a hard place, which is often how fealty is gained.

[LynnS]

If Jon is dead, his watch is ended.  What will happen next?

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

If Jon is dead, his watch is ended.  What will happen next?

Two situations:

If he's lucky and is not killed on sight (Holy ****, the dead LC's walking again. BURN HIM!) then he'll probably go south and curb stomp the Boltons (with Sansa, maybe). That's just short term, mind.

If he's unlucky, which is unlikely, then the situation above plays out. 

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The objective of the Pink Letter is to bring Jon to Winterfell. That should be clear regardless of who you think the author is.

Twice the letter tells Jon directly, come see your friends heads on the walls, and come see Mance in a cage. It highlights Ramsay's cruel nature, making cloaks of women, which does not sit well with Jon. And it taunts Jon about Winterfell, Lord Eddard's seat, now belonging to Ramsay. It is designed to antagonize Jon into attacking Ramsay, given that the proxy-war he had been waging through Stannis had failed, according to the letter at least.

If Jon swallows the bait and takes action, then he breaks his Night's Watch vows. The letter had the desired effect, but what the author could not have foreseen was the unintended consequence that arose.

If the objective of the letter was to bring Jon to Winterfell, then we should feel safe in the assumption that the letter was sent from Winterfell, because the author is obviously trying to get Jon to come to them. Also, we know there are ravens at Winterfell, so there's no problem in that regard.

So who at Winterfell has an interest in bringing Jon to the castle? There are actually a number of parties that could fit for a variety of reasons. The Boltons might want Jon to answer for his crimes, etc. That's certainly how it appears on the surface. But then there are northern lords who want Jon to be king, some people have suggested that Lady Dustin or Lord Umber might be the author. And of course there is Mance, who might need rescuing, or perhaps he has another scheme in mind.   

However, if you understand the very first passage of the letter, then I think it is very clear who the letter comes from.

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

So the claim is that Stannis is dead, Ramsay has Lightbringer, tell Mel.

Why tell Mel? A simple taunt aimed at shattering her illusions about her beliefs. What would Mel have thought when she read the letter. Damn, I wasted my life? No. She would know the letter is a lie. Stannis is alive. This passage should call you back to previous passages in the text.

“Melisandre swears that she has seen me in her flames, facing the dark with Lightbringer raised on high. Lightbringer!"

Mel has told Stannis that she has seen him wielding Lightbringer in the final battle. So how could he be dead and Ramsay have the sword? That scenario contradicts her vision. You might say well Mel's belief might be shifting to Jon, and that may be true, but the point is that Stannis believes Mel is certain of this. And he's pretty much right.

"Would you know if the king was dead?" Jon asked the red priestess.

"He is not dead. Stannis is the Lord's chosen, destined to lead the fight against the dark. I have seen it in the flames, read of it in ancient prophecy."

And that's only the first passage. The most compelling evidence is "I want my bride back. I want my Reek." This is a verbatim quote, necessary change of person aside, from a conversation between Stannis and Theon, which should suggest it comes from one of these two. But then Theon would not be sending a coded message to Mel as presented above, only Stannis would.

Throughout Dance, Stannis has largely been concerned with winning the north. He wants Jon's fealty so that he can bind the North to his cause but Jon has repeatedly refused to swear his sword to the king, citing his Night's Watch vows as the reason. So Stannis has plenty of motive to get Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell. No, not the crofter's village. Winterfell.

Stannis will win the Battle of Ice, and take Winterfell before he writes and sends the letter. The timeline has been scrambled a little because some chapters from Dance had to be bumped to Winds. When he takes the castle and is besieged by Robett Glover who commands the main northern strength, which was being held in reserve, he will need Jon to come and finally accept his offer of Winterfell. It's the only way Stannis can win the North and lift the siege. And this time Jon won't be able to use his vows as an excuse given that he'll have just broken them.

Stannis is a strategist and he's using what we would consider a common Hegelian strategy here, often known as problem-reaction-solution. The pink letter causes the problem, Jon reacts by breaking his vows and riding to Winterfell, Stannis provides the solution, which is a pardon for oathbreaking, a crime punishable by death, if he accepts the kings offer. That puts Jon between a rock and a hard place, which is often how fealty is gained.

Lots of problems with this.  First, Stannis is being duplicitous towards an ally and seriously risking turning that ally into a powerful enemy?  What, did he get a personality transplant while we weren't looking?  He doesn't do duplicitous and high-risk.  The sneakiest thing he's done was the Mance switch, and I think that was Melisandre's doing as much as Stannis.  Anyway, Jon wanted Mance kept alive anyway.

Second, why would Jon travel 300 miles to look at some heads on spikes and see if Mance is really a prisoner?  He has better things to do, like defend the Wall and keep an eye out for Ramsay.

Third, so what if he does go to Winterfell.  He has received a letter from Ramsay Bolton containing claims and allegations against himself and the Night's Watch and wants to see if they are true.  Sounds a lot like official business to me.  He's Lord Commander of the Nights Watch; he can go pretty much anywhere, as long as it can be considered official.  Winterfell is definitely in his legitimate area of interest. 

He has no reason to show up with an army.  As far as anyone knows, he hasn't got one.  And if he finds Stannis under seige by Northerners his likely response would be to mediate.  He's a respected neutral party, and wants everyone pointed the same direction (at the Others), not each other.

My guess is that Ramsay wrote it.  Much of it is likely untrue, but what and why is unclear.  But that is for a separate post.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Lots of problems with this.  First, Stannis is being duplicitous towards an ally and seriously risking turning that ally into a powerful enemy?  What, did he get a personality transplant while we weren't looking?  He doesn't do duplicitous and high-risk.  The sneakiest thing he's done was the Mance switch, and I think that was Melisandre's doing as much as Stannis.  Anyway, Jon wanted Mance kept alive anyway.

The Mance switch, which was done by his command, risks his alliance with the Watch as well as breaks the laws of the Seven Kingdoms. It's actually a far greater risk to his ambitions. Jon did want Mance alive, but so did Stannis. Mance is the only man who can bind the wildlings to his cause, and Stannis wants to bind them to his cause, and Mance knows much and more of the true enemy.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Second, why would Jon travel 300 miles to look at some heads on spikes and see if Mance is really a prisoner?  He has better things to do, like defend the Wall and keep an eye out for Ramsay.

Come on now, there's more in the letter than that. The whole thing is designed to press Jon's buttons. And you have to accept it worked. And it's over 600 miles actually. But still, Jon was going. If you have to ask why, then I suggest you don't understand Jon's character as well as the author of the letter does.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Third, so what if he does go to Winterfell.  He has received a letter from Ramsay Bolton containing claims and allegations against himself and the Night's Watch and wants to see if they are true.  Sounds a lot like official business to me.  He's Lord Commander of the Nights Watch; he can go pretty much anywhere, as long as it can be considered official.  Winterfell is definitely in his legitimate area of interest. 

Even Jon knows he's breaking his oath when he leaves, that's why he brings wildlings and not Night's Watch, because he would not ask them to forswear his vows.

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows."

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

He has no reason to show up with an army.  As far as anyone knows, he hasn't got one.  And if he finds Stannis under seige by Northerners his likely response would be to mediate.  He's a respected neutral party, and wants everyone pointed the same direction (at the Others), not each other.

Jon's uncle Brandon once went to King's Landing to call out Rhaegar without an army. If Jon arrived alone it wouldn't matter to Stannis, he just needs Jon. As for everyone pointed in the same direction, Stannis wants that too. His direction, under his leadership. With Roose removed the north needs a new leader. If Stannis can get Jon to finally accept the offer that has been central to both character's arcs through the whole last novel, then he will win the North, which is a goal he must achieve if he is to go any further. And Stannis is not finished yet, he's going to make it all the way to the final chapters of Winds.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

My guess is that Ramsay wrote it.  Much of it is likely untrue, but what and why is unclear. 

Ramsay didn't write it. The reason you're unclear about what might or might not be untrue is because you looking at it as being from Ramsay and as such it doesn't quite add up or make sense. If you know it is from Stannis then you can understand every piece of the letter and relate it to other parts of the text, as I demonstrated with the opening passage above.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

If Jon is dead, his watch is ended.  What will happen next?

Jon will be out of the picture for a while, he certainly won't be back to solve the stalemate between Stannis and the North. But when Jon is reported dead, Rickon's political stock will soar and Davos will smuggle him into Winterfell to save his besieged king because that's what Davos does. But I don't want to slide too far off topic.

[LynnS]

8 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon will be out of the picture for a while, he certainly won't be back to solve the stalemate between Stannis and the North. But when Jon is reported dead, Rickon's political stock will soar and Davos will smuggle him into Winterfell to save his besieged king because that's what Davos does. But I don't want to slide too far off topic.

It seems to me that it isn't just Jon who is inflamed by the letter, but the Wildlings as well.  Perhaps they were the real target of the letter.  Mance seems to have his own plan aside from Mel's plot or whatever it was they were scheming together. The language of the letter does sound very much like Ramsey but the intel he has. very much like Mance. So I wonder if Mance is playing Ramsey in some way and what his own plan was aside from the fArya plot.

The smear of pink wax implies that the letter has been read and resealed before it got to Jon.

Do crows typically carry messages sealed with wax?

[Nevets]

11 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The Mance switch, which was done by his command, risks his alliance with the Watch as well as breaks the laws of the Seven Kingdoms. It's actually a far greater risk to his ambitions. Jon did want Mance alive, but so did Stannis. Mance is the only man who can bind the wildlings to his cause, and Stannis wants to bind them to his cause, and Mance knows much and more of the true enemy.

Come on now, there's more in the letter than that. The whole thing is designed to press Jon's buttons. And you have to accept it worked. And it's over 600 miles actually. But still, Jon was going. If you have to ask why, then I suggest you don't understand Jon's character as well as the author of the letter does.

Even Jon knows he's breaking his oath when he leaves, that's why he brings wildlings and not Night's Watch, because he would not ask them to forswear his vows.

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows."

Jon's uncle Brandon once went to King's Landing to call out Rhaegar without an army. If Jon arrived alone it wouldn't matter to Stannis, he just needs Jon. As for everyone pointed in the same direction, Stannis wants that too. His direction, under his leadership. With Roose removed the north needs a new leader. If Stannis can get Jon to finally accept the offer that has been central to both character's arcs through the whole last novel, then he will win the North, which is a goal he must achieve if he is to go any further. And Stannis is not finished yet, he's going to make it all the way to the final chapters of Winds.

Ramsay didn't write it. The reason you're unclear about what might or might not be untrue is because you looking at it as being from Ramsay and as such it doesn't quite add up or make sense. If you know it is from Stannis then you can understand every piece of the letter and relate it to other parts of the text, as I demonstrated with the opening passage above.

 

The only reason Jon is going to Winterfell is because he has an army; an army Stannis knows nothing about.  As far as Stannis knows, Jon could probably rustle up a couple dozen men for an escort; enough to defend themselves, but not much else.  So, no reason to go, since he can't accomplish much, and if he did go, it would be an official visit. 

My reason for not knowing if the letter is true is because I don't know if Ramsay is lying or has been tricked nor what has actually transpired at Winterfell. I still don't believe Stannis wrote it.  Ramsay did.