What were the objectives of the pink letter?

[Lord Varys]

36 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

A question: Generally maesters send ravens. Winterfell has no maester ATM. Tybald, who serves the Dreadfort, was captured by Stannis. What maesters are available at the time of the pink letter and to whom? Are we meant to assume that Tybald was set free, or that other maesters abound.... I am just really unsure if the Boltons actually have access to a maester in order to send such a message if Tybald was not returned to them.

There are three maesters at Winterfell that we know of. And they do what Roose tells them.

That Dreadfort's maester was with Arnolf is also not really surprising. It ensured that Arnolf couldn't betray Roose by using the maester to send false messages to the Boltons.

1 hour ago, divica said:

yeah, but what do you think was the objective in sending the letter?

It depends on what actually transpired. If Stannis is dead then the objective is indeed to get what Ramsay demanded, no strings attached. If Stannis isn't dead and Ramsay knows this then the objective is either to get what's demanded to get an advantage over Stannis and/or to take a stab at Stannis' allies at the Wall who dared to mess with the Boltons.

I mean, ask yourself what the point of Ramsay's earlier letters were - letters written in blood with enclosed 'pieces of prince' ... to intimidate his enemies.

The crucial part about the Pink Letter is to whom it was visibly addressed - Bastard. That alone makes clear that one of Ramsay's goal was to intimidate not only Jon Snow but everybody at the Wall. The Lord Commander might be able to hide the contents of the letter from his men, but not to whom the letter was addressed. Folks would learn that a letter from the Boltons arrived and that it clearly insulted/threatened the Lord Commander, putting pressure on Jon to publicly address and react to the contents of the letter.

That he did, and that led to his assassination. I'm sure Ramsay would agree that this was a most welcome result.

1 hour ago, divica said:

Forget who you think sent the letter. If you assume that nobody outside of castle black know about tormund and his 4k wildlings (and this is the most probable scenario) what would be the objective in sending that letter? Do you agree with the OP?

Forget Tormund, remember that Stannis originally planned to use the wildlings he had captured after the battle to march against the Dreadfort. And the Boltons and Arnolf did their best to goad him into doing that.

Roose/Ramsay know that Jon Snow and Stannis people up at the Wall now control those wildlings, meaning the main goal of the letter could be to goad Jon Snow into doing what Stannis didn't - unleash the wildlings on the North and thus create a united, Bolton-led front of Northmen against Stannis and his wildling-loving NW allies.

Because the idea that the North is fine with an army on wildlings on their turf is pretty much ridiculous.

And if Stannis is dead or about to die then goading Jon Snow into doing something so stupid could be the very pretext the Boltons want to destroy the NW completely.

[Hippocras]

17 minutes ago, divica said:

acording to the asoiaf search

 

Interesting. Not much is known about House Slate, but Houses Cerwyn and Hornwood both went through some pretty brutal events recently with Boltons as perpetrators. These maesters would have been witnesses. With maesters it is hard to know what their personal background is and where their loyalties lie, but if we assume they were in fact loyal to House Cerwyn and House Hornwood this raises some questions and possibilities I would say.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Interesting. Not much is known about House Slate, but Houses Cerwyn and Hornwood both went through some pretty brutal events recently with Boltons as perpetrators. These maesters would have been witnesses. With maesters it is hard to know what their personal background is and where their loyalties lie, but if we assume they were in fact loyal to House Cerwyn and House Hornwood this raises some questions and possibilities I would say.

When Roose Bolton is your master you do as you're told. Just like Qyburn did.

[Hippocras]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Forget Tormund, remember that Stannis originally planned to use the wildlings he had captured after the battle to march against the Dreadfort. And the Boltons and Arnolf did their best to goad him into doing that.

Roose/Ramsay know that Jon Snow and Stannis people up at the Wall now control those wildlings, meaning the main goal of the letter could be to goad Jon Snow into doing what Stannis didn't - unleash the wildlings on the North and thus create a united, Bolton-led front of Northmen against Stannis and his wildling-loving NW allies.

Because the idea that the North is fine with an army on wildlings on their turf is pretty much ridiculous.

I think this hits the spot. It is a lead-up to making people accept Bolton rule as the more acceptable solution when faced by a wildling invasion.

Regarding people knowing about the wildlings - seems to me if a raven can make it from Winterfell to the Wall, the same can happen in the other direction. I don't think we should assume too much about what the Boltons know or do not know about Tormund et al.

[Hippocras]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

When Roose Bolton is your master you do as you're told. Just like Qyburn did.

It is just one possibility among many, but one of them could be a particularly brave maester.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Hippocras said:

It is just one possibility among many, but one of them could be a particularly brave maester.

In any case, only Roose/Ramsay would have access to the maesters of Winterfell. If others could ask them to write letters, they would not write letters looking and sounding like Ramsay had written them. Because that would just be stupid. If Mance or some anti-Bolton Northman (maester) could send a letter to Castle Black it wouldn't pretend to be written by fucking Ramsay.

[divica]

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Forget Tormund, remember that Stannis originally planned to use the wildlings he had captured after the battle to march against the Dreadfort. And the Boltons and Arnolf did their best to goad him into doing that.

Roose/Ramsay know that Jon Snow and Stannis people up at the Wall now control those wildlings, meaning the main goal of the letter could be to goad Jon Snow into doing what Stannis didn't - unleash the wildlings on the North and thus create a united, Bolton-led front of Northmen against Stannis and his wildling-loving NW allies.

Because the idea that the North is fine with an army on wildlings on their turf is pretty much ridiculous.

And if Stannis is dead or about to die then goading Jon Snow into doing something so stupid could be the very pretext the Boltons want to destroy the NW completely.

This is actually a good point. wether jon led a small number of wildlings or if they went of their own free will to help their mance a lot of northerns would turn against stannis and jon. 

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, ask yourself what the point of Ramsay's earlier letters were - letters written in blood with enclosed 'pieces of prince' ... to intimidate his enemies.

The crucial part about the Pink Letter is to whom it was visibly addressed - Bastard. That alone makes clear that one of Ramsay's goal was to intimidate not only Jon Snow but everybody at the Wall. The Lord Commander might be able to hide the contents of the letter from his men, but not to whom the letter was addressed. Folks would learn that a letter from the Boltons arrived and that it clearly insulted/threatened the Lord Commander, putting pressure on Jon to publicly address and react to the contents of the letter.

That he did, and that led to his assassination. I'm sure Ramsay would agree that this was a most welcome result.

I can t give you a good reason why ramsay wouldn t write the letter in blood or with pieces of mance/the spearwives because unless roose interfered and wanted to keep mance as healthy as possible so that all the north can see that jon and stannis are liars there simply aren t good answers without starting to speculate. And I didn t really want to speculate about the veracity of the contents of the letter because it isn t important for the consequences that the letter is suposed to cause at CB.

What is written there might be false or true, but simply sending a letter with those words signed by ramsay has consequences. And it was those consequences I wanted to focus on.

And jon couldn t keep a letter hidden where the warden fo the north threatens the NW. He would need to say something.

But if we look only and the possible consequences of the PL almost all of them are positive for the boltons and solve serious problems for them.

18 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I think this hits the spot. It is a lead-up to making people accept Bolton rule as the more acceptable solution when faced by a wildling invasion.

Regarding people knowing about the wildlings - seems to me if a raven can make it from Winterfell to the Wall, the same can happen in the other direction. I don't think we should assume too much about what the Boltons know or do not know about Tormund et al.

But we are suposed to believe that maesters don´t send letters without their leaders telling them. If we start suspecting those things we enter a spiral where everything is possible.

And what do you think about the letter putting pressure on the NW to betray their LC (who just lied to them about killing mance and sent him to resuce his sister) or to die fighting a lost cause that has very little to do with the NW?

 

Or the fact that by showing that jon lied about mance that his word can t be taken seriously when he tells the northern lords that farya is a fake?

[divica]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In any case, only Roose/Ramsay would have access to the maesters of Winterfell. If others could ask them to write letters, they would not write letters looking and sounding like Ramsay had written them. Because that would just be stupid. If Mance or some anti-Bolton Northman (maester) could send a letter to Castle Black it wouldn't pretend to be written by fucking Ramsay.

And we have the writing style. It is noted that ramsay has a very peculiar hand style and jon received 1 letter previously. If the PL was written in a diferent hand style from the first he should have noted it.

On the other hand the lack of blood and body parts is suspicious. The only explanation I could have at the moment is that roose forbid ramsay to write letters in that style. 

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, divica said:

This is actually a good point. wether jon led a small number of wildlings or if they went of their own free will to help their mance a lot of northerns would turn against stannis and jon. 

Yes, and Ramsay's tone as well as the general address - to 'Bastard' - his signature as 'trueborn Lord of Winterfell' all clearly are carefully crafted provocations that are supposed to trigger Jon Snow into doing something rash. The Boltons do not *really* want all those hostages and stuff - if they wanted them the letter would have been written in a different tone and they would have offered Jon much better terms - they want Jon doing something stupid.

This is also why the letter is written by Ramsay - from bastard to bastard. Ramsay is more like Jon than Roose, and they assume that he can get better under Jon's skin than Roose could.

10 minutes ago, divica said:

And I didn t really want to speculate about the veracity of the contents of the letter because it isn t important for the consequences that the letter is suposed to cause at CB.

Oh, I think it is. I mean, imagine the Boltons lost at the village and Winterfell is besieged by Stannis at the time the letter is written and sent? If this were the case, how could they then receive the hostages even if Jon were sending them down to Winterfell? Jon would sending them right to Stannis in such a scenario.

The outcome of the battle(s) is important because it determined which demands made in the letter are demands Jon could realistically fulfill.

10 minutes ago, divica said:

What is written there might be false or true, but simply sending a letter with those words signed by ramsay has consequences. And it was those consequences I wanted to focus on.

Of course, but in-universe there would be intended and unintended consequences. I think the Boltons would celebrate that the Pink Letter triggered Jon's assassination ... but I very much doubt this was an intended consequence. But the intended consequence likely was to trigger Jon into doing something rash and stupid with the wildlings.

Also, knowing Ramsay's earlier letter-writing habit - we should seriously consider that the Boltons sent out similar letters to the lords of the North spreading the word about Jon and Stannis' Mance Rayder betrayal. Goading Jon into doing something rash with the wildlings could be complemented by informing the Northmen about the Mance betrayal ... with the ultimate aim to erode the support Stannis has gained among the Northmen.

The Mance betrayal will have consequences in that department. And if Stannis isn't dead yet then the news that the man has only pretended to execute Mance Rayder and his people are now invading the North under the command of the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch could very well mark the end of his campaign in the North.

Even if Stannis had won at the village but subsequently failed to take Winterfell. If the Northmen were abandoning Stannis in droves after that he would lose the war even if he had won the battles.

10 minutes ago, divica said:

And jon couldn t keep a letter hidden where the warden fo the north threatens the NW. He would need to say something.

He would be under no pressure to discuss a letter from Winterfell with his officers and men if it had been just a standard letter. He doesn't exactly discuss his letters with his men on a regular basis.

But the Pink Letter would be talked about by the men because Clydas and others would have seen how it looked and to whom it was addressed.

Even if Clydas hadn't secretly opened the letter which he most likely did. That is why there is only a smear of pink wax left on the Pink Letter and no proper Bolton seal.

24 minutes ago, divica said:

And we have the writing style. It is noted that ramsay has a very peculiar hand style and jon received 1 letter previously. If the PL was written in a diferent hand style from the first he should have noted it.

Yes, and he discusses the contents of the letter briefly with Tormund. If he had reasons to doubt Ramsay wrote it he would have mentioned that at this point. Because if there was a reason for him to believe Ramsay didn't even write this letter then the contents would even be more spurious.

24 minutes ago, divica said:

On the other hand the lack of blood and body parts is suspicious. The only explanation I could have at the moment is that roose forbid ramsay to write letters in that style. 

I don't think that this is particularly suspicious. For one, the letter is clearly not as carefully crafted as the others - for which Ramsay/Roose likely did take considerable time and effort (as well as having lots of fun writing them and including puns about 'pieces of prince' and all that) - and that's not surprising:

Regardless what happened - they are under a lot of pressure. They are surrounded by enemies inside and outside Winterfell, they lost the Stark imposter girl they needed to legitimize their power grab in the North (as well as their hold over the a considerable portion of the men that are with them at Winterfell). The idea they have the time or inclination to write another letter in blood isn't very likely. Especially if Stannis is not actually dead/defeated (yet), or the letter was written before Ramsay left Winterfell to fight against Stannis as Theon expects him to do. He wouldn't have much time in such a scenario.

Even more since in light of the fact that the letter is clearly supposed to create the image of Ramsay writing while he is, really, really angry over what has just transpired. And it might not just be an image - he may actually be very angry about that. The idea that they would take time to prepare sufficient blood to be used as ink isn't very compelling.

But since chances are very high the letter was opened before Clydas gave it to Jon and shown to Marsh, chances are that any pieces of Mance or the women that may have been enclosed was not put back in.

[divica]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, and Ramsay's tone as well as the general address - to 'Bastard' - his signature as 'trueborn Lord of Winterfell' all clearly are carefully crafted provocations that are supposed to trigger Jon Snow into doing something rash. The Boltons do not *really* want all those hostages and stuff - if they wanted them the letter would have been written in a different tone and they would have offered Jon much better terms - they want Jon doing something stupid.

This is also why the letter is written by Ramsay - from bastard to bastard. Ramsay is more like Jon than Roose, and they assume that he can get better under Jon's skin than Roose could.

Yeah, I agree that they didn t really want those hostages nor solve the conflict peacefully. That should be kind of obvious.

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I think it is. I mean, imagine the Boltons lost at the village and Winterfell is besieged by Stannis at the time the letter is written and sent? If this were the case, how could they then receive the hostages even if Jon were sending them down to Winterfell? Jon would sending them right to Stannis in such a scenario.

The outcome of the battle(s) is important because it determined which demands made in the letter are demands Jon could realistically fulfill.

Completly disagree. You are assuming that the boltons wrote the letter and therefore thinking what were their objectives. I am justing thinking what are the consequeces of jon receiving that letter no matter who wrote it. 

It doesn t matter if ramsay didn t send the letter or if its contents are true or false. Jon is acting as if ramsay wrote the letter and most of what is written there is true. And the consequences of jon acting like this are very positve for the boltons.

And by writing the letter in the tone they used they made sure that jon wouldn't send any hostages. And the consequences of him assuming a conflict with the boltons, that stannis was defeated and that mance is alive would always be very bad for him and good for the boltons.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, but in-universe there would be intended and unintended consequences. I think the Boltons would celebrate that the Pink Letter triggered Jon's assassination ... but I very much doubt this was an intended consequence. But the intended consequence likely was to trigger Jon into doing something rash and stupid with the wildlings.

Also, knowing Ramsay's earlier letter-writing habit - we should seriously consider that the Boltons sent out similar letters to the lords of the North spreading the word about Jon and Stannis' Mance Rayder betrayal. Goading Jon into doing something rash with the wildlings could be complemented by informing the Northmen about the Mance betrayal ... with the ultimate aim to erode the support Stannis has gained among the Northmen.

The Mance betrayal will have consequences in that department. And if Stannis isn't dead yet then the news that the man has only pretended to execute Mance Rayder and his people are now invading the North under the command of the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch could very well mark the end of his campaign in the North.

Even if Stannis had won at the village but subsequently failed to take Winterfell. If the Northmen were abandoning Stannis in droves after that he would lose the war even if he had won the battles.

I don t think that the main objective was for jon to march south with the wildlings. First because people think that there are around 1k wildlings in CB and not all of them are fighters. Then, if they wanted jon to attack the letter could describe some awfull things done to farya or threat burn the godswood or something that jon would want to stop. 

The letter's main objective is to show that jon and stannis are liars, to show that all hope is lost, that mance needs help and to isolate jon from the NW. I mean, if jon refused to obey to the letter's demands what were the NW brothers suposed to do? Fight to the death for a lord comander that lied to them and saved mance's life? Let the NW become the enemies of the north by oposing the warden? A simple letter backed the NW to fight for their life or to betray their LC. I think that when you take into account that we talking about criminals their choice was obvious.

44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Regardless what happened - they are under a lot of pressure. They are surrounded by enemies inside and outside Winterfell, they lost the Stark imposter girl they needed to legitimize their power grab in the North (as well as their hold over the a considerable portion of the men that are with them at Winterfell). The idea they have the time or inclination to write another letter in blood isn't very likely. Especially if Stannis is not actually dead/defeated (yet), or the letter was written before Ramsay left Winterfell to fight against Stannis as Theon expects him to do. He wouldn't have much time in such a scenario.

Even more since in light of the fact that the letter is clearly supposed to create the image of Ramsay writing while he is, really, really angry over what has just transpired. And it might not just be an image - he may actually be very angry about that. The idea that they would take time to prepare sufficient blood to be used as ink isn't very compelling.

But since chances are very high the letter was opened before Clydas gave it to Jon and shown to Marsh, chances are that any pieces of Mance or the women that may have been enclosed was not put back in.

One thing you aren t taking into account. The boltons need to descredit or kill jon before farya gets to the wall. If jon starts writing letters that their arya is a fake they would be even worse. And the PL has a high chance of doing both things. To me is quite clear that the boltons want the NW or wildlings to try to kill jon. And if they failed jon would still be descredited when he said farya was fake and if he took a small force of wildlings to winterfell it would be even better.

Good point about clydas and marsh not wanting to touch the pieces of skin to put them inside the envelop.

 

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, divica said:

Completly disagree. You are assuming that the boltons wrote the letter and therefore thinking what were their objectives. I am justing thinking what are the consequeces of jon receiving that letter no matter who wrote it. 

But if you want to understand why things were written the way they were you cannot ignore the context. George is not stupid, he knows what transpired at Winterfell that led to the writing of the Pink Letter. We don't know, but the author does know. He didn't write the Pink Letter into the story before figuring out what happened at Winterfell.

13 minutes ago, divica said:

It doesn t matter if ramsay didn t send the letter or if its contents are true or false. Jon is acting as if ramsay wrote the letter and most of what is written there is true. And the consequences of jon acting like this are very positve for the boltons.

But that's not something they could expect. Chances are that Jon pretty much behaves the way they thought he would. But we cannot know that without actually knowing what happened in Winterfell and what they wanted to accomplish with the letter.

13 minutes ago, divica said:

And by writing the letter in the tone they used they made sure that jon wouldn't send any hostages. And the consequences of him assuming a conflict with the boltons, that stannis was defeated and that mance is alive would always be very bad for him and good for the boltons.

Yes, but Jon could also have acted differently - or whoever was in charge at the Wall. If the letter had arrived a couple of days later Jon would have been off to Hardhome and somebody else would have react/answer the letter. Then we would have a completely different scenario.

Also, the Boltons should have a plan how to react if Jon were actually to send hostages ... and there are scenarios where the Boltons could actually profit from that. Say, if Stannis was still alive but had been forced to retreat to Deepwood or some other place.

If you try political manipulation you have to have plans to deal with various alternative scenarios ... and the idea that your demands are actually met should be one of those scenarios. You would be stupid to not consider this.

13 minutes ago, divica said:

I don t think that the main objective was for jon to march south with the wildlings. First because people think that there are around 1k wildlings in CB and not all of them are fighters. Then, if they wanted jon to attack the letter could describe some awfull things done to farya or threat burn the godswood or something that jon would want to stop. 

Three thousand or one thousand wildlings - it doesn't matter. The wildlings aren't soldiers in any case, and if Stannis has been crushed then the Boltons own the North. Period. Nobody would flock to Jon Snow if he lead an army of wildlings into the North, nor would the Northmen expect a guy to succeed who is trying to fight the Boltons with wildlings. Even less if the Boltons have the advantage of a formidable castle like Winterfell.

Can anyone imagine Jon besieging Winterfell with Tormund's people? Them to stand against cavalry and Northern warriors clad in mail and plate and armed with steel weapons? Them to build siege weapons, to storm the walls, to starve out the garrison?

I don't think so.

13 minutes ago, divica said:

The letter's main objective is to show that jon and stannis are liars, to show that all hope is lost, that mance needs help and to isolate jon from the NW. I mean, if jon refused to obey to the letter's demands what were the NW brothers suposed to do? Fight to the death for a lord comander that lied to them and saved mance's life? Let the NW become the enemies of the north by oposing the warden? A simple letter backed the NW to fight for their life or to betray their LC. I think that when you take into account that we talking about criminals their choice was obvious.

You are presupposing here that the Boltons can expect that Jon is revealing the contents of the letter to the public. This is not a given. As I said, the way it is addressed people would start to talk about the letter, wonder what it said, and Jon might even be forced to make a public statement about it ... but nobody could force him to tell the truth about it. He could lie, he could play the contents down, etc.

And, especially, he could keep his mouth shut about everything involving Mance. Even if he talked about the letter and mentioned Mance - he could ridicule Ramsay's claims considering everybody saw how Mance burned alive ... so the dear trueborn Lord of Winterfell must be somewhat confused there, no?

Jon also makes a risky deal with Tycho Nestoris of the Iron Bank ... and tells nobody about that deal. He can keep things secret if he wants to.

13 minutes ago, divica said:

One thing you aren t taking into account. The boltons need to descredit or kill jon before farya gets to the wall. If jon starts writing letters that their arya is a fake they would be even worse. And the PL has a high chance of doing both things. To me is quite clear that the boltons want the NW or wildlings to try to kill jon. And if they failed jon would still be descredited when he said farya was fake and if he took a small force of wildlings to winterfell it would be even better.

Jon revealing the truth about Jeyne is potentially risky ... but not if Stannis is dead. Then real power will have decided the issue. The Boltons have won, and they will rule the North, Stark girl or not.

And Jon would just be in a Stannis-like position with Jeyne. Stannis also wrote letters telling the truth about Cersei's children. Did it have a big effect? No. Roose and Ramsay would come to Castle Black with their men and deal with Jon for good. And all Jon could do in the meantime is writing letters. And the Boltons could claim that Jon is lying because he wants to discredit them. Jon would need the opportunity to present Jeyne to the lords of the North and to address them personally ... and he would not get that opportunity.

If Stannis isn't dead then this is an important issue. But not necessarily that important since the Boltons should actually expect that Theon spilled the truth about Jeyne to Stannis and his men already. Jon would only add another voice to theirs. They cannot expect that Theon would tell Jeyne to tell nobody who she actually was.

13 minutes ago, divica said:

Good point about clydas and marsh not wanting to touch the pieces of skin to put them inside the envelop.

Oh, I just thought that if such pieces were in there - and it is not that likely since nothing about that is mentioned - then they may have fallen out when the letter was opened and they forgot/didn't bother putting them back in.

[divica]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon revealing the truth about Jeyne is potentially risky ... but not if Stannis is dead. Then real power will have decided the issue. The Boltons have won, and they will rule the North, Stark girl or not.

And Jon would just be in a Stannis-like position with Jeyne. Stannis also wrote letters telling the truth about Cersei's children. Did it have a big effect? No. Roose and Ramsay would come to Castle Black with their men and deal with Jon for good. And all Jon could do in the meantime is writing letters. And the Boltons could claim that Jon is lying because he wants to discredit them. Jon would need the opportunity to present Jeyne to the lords of the North and to address them personally ... and he would not get that opportunity.

If Stannis isn't dead then this is an important issue. But not necessarily that important since the Boltons should actually expect that Theon spilled the truth about Jeyne to Stannis and his men already. Jon would only add another voice to theirs. They cannot expect that Theon would tell Jeyne to tell nobody who she actually was.

With or without stannis if jon reveals that jeyne isn t arya the boltons could lose the suport of the other northern houses and that would make them weak.

And if jeyne is near jon he can prove that she is a fake which stannis couldn t do in regards to the incest.

In regards to the theon situation, I think the whole scenario is stupid. Theon/jeyne don t tell the truth to stannis knowing that some lords could leave the boltons if stannis told them the truth. Then stannis sends a stark to the wall when he knows that the clansmen are only with him because they wanted to save her. Hell, can you imagine how demoralizing it would be for the northerns in bolton's side to hear farya talk about how awfull the boltons are before a battle? I don t know if bolton blundered, but stannis definetly did by sending farya to the wall.

Honestly, I don t even know why the boltons would think that jeyne and reek would go together to the wall. There is clearly something missing that convinced them that both are going there. And these inconsistencies are the reasons why I wanted to simply analise what were the consequences of jon receiving the PL without analising the its veracity or who might have written it. It is clear that there are things going behind the scenes that we don t know...

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You are presupposing here that the Boltons can expect that Jon is revealing the contents of the letter to the public. This is not a given. As I said, the way it is addressed people would start to talk about the letter, wonder what it said, and Jon might even be forced to make a public statement about it ... but nobody could force him to tell the truth about it. He could lie, he could play the contents down, etc.

And, especially, he could keep his mouth shut about everything involving Mance. Even if he talked about the letter and mentioned Mance - he could ridicule Ramsay's claims considering everybody saw how Mance burned alive ... so the dear trueborn Lord of Winterfell must be somewhat confused there, no?

Jon also makes a risky deal with Tycho Nestoris of the Iron Bank ... and tells nobody about that deal. He can keep things secret if he wants to.

Jon would always need to tell some part of the contents of the letter because ramsay is threatning to go to war with the NW. He can't keep that hidden because he has to prepara the NW for the attack.

And jon didn t confirm if the contents about mance were true or not. He simply didn t comment them. And that was the best thing to do in case the news about mance being alive spread and it is proved he is an even bigger liar. 

Honestly, I think jon would need to read such an important letter to some of the key figures in the NW and the boltons know that. Then the story would always spread. However, the nail in jon's coffin isn t so much that mance is alive but that stannis lost and ramsay is coming to destroy the NW if jon doesn t give him a bunch of people. The moment jon decides to fight ramsay in what seemed an unwinning situation the NW would turn against him. And it is pretty easy to predict this when the NW killed their last LC a few months ago in a mutiny. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Three thousand or one thousand wildlings - it doesn't matter. The wildlings aren't soldiers in any case, and if Stannis has been crushed then the Boltons own the North. Period. Nobody would flock to Jon Snow if he lead an army of wildlings into the North, nor would the Northmen expect a guy to succeed who is trying to fight the Boltons with wildlings. Even less if the Boltons have the advantage of a formidable castle like Winterfell.

Can anyone imagine Jon besieging Winterfell with Tormund's people? Them to stand against cavalry and Northern warriors clad in mail and plate and armed with steel weapons? Them to build siege weapons, to storm the walls, to starve out the garrison?

I don't think so.

You think this because you lack imagination. The wildlings are the best army to atack winterfell. They could scale the winterfell's wall during the night like it is childsplay and atack the boltons when they are sleeping. The problem is to hope that the boltons don t charge out of winterfell, but if they time their arrival it shouldn t be impossible.

The part I totaly agree is that jon would need northmen in his army to give the idea of unity between wildlings and northmen in his army instead of a band of savages. And he could acomplish that by gathering the northmen that were with stannis and survived.

Hard? yes. Impossible? Not. It is a matter of numbers.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but Jon could also have acted differently - or whoever was in charge at the Wall. If the letter had arrived a couple of days later Jon would have been off to Hardhome and somebody else would have react/answer the letter. Then we would have a completely different scenario.

Also, the Boltons should have a plan how to react if Jon were actually to send hostages ... and there are scenarios where the Boltons could actually profit from that. Say, if Stannis was still alive but had been forced to retreat to Deepwood or some other place.

If you try political manipulation you have to have plans to deal with various alternative scenarios ... and the idea that your demands are actually met should be one of those scenarios. You would be stupid to not consider this.

The boltons could always send a party from the dreadfort to receive their hostages from the wall. Or in the worst case as long as farya and jon are separated and jon is discredited then it is also good for them.

Even if who answered that letter wasn t jon and decided to give them the hostages they would still be pretty happy.

 

[Lord Varys]

30 minutes ago, divica said:

With or without stannis if jon reveals that jeyne isn t arya the boltons could lose the suport of the other northern houses and that would make them weak.

Actually, they should lose that support simply by losing 'Arya'. And that they already did. The loss of Jeyne as such must be a huge blow to the Bolton cause and we have, unfortunately, no information how it affected the situation inside Winterfell. Chances are that, after that, Roose can only count on his own men ... and perhaps the Dustin and Ryswell men. The other Northmen are likely to refuse to fight, defect, or turn against him the first moment he shows any additional weaknesses.

Lady Dustin made it clear that a good chunk of the men at Winterfell do care about 'Arya' - which is why Ramsay should treat her kindly. She was an important factor in the entire thing, and with her gone the entire Bolton cause could implode very quickly.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

And if jeyne is near jon he can prove that she is a fake which stannis couldn t do in regards to the incest.

He could say she is a fake ... but he couldn't prove it, although many people hearing it from his lips are likely to believe him.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

In regards to the theon situation, I think the whole scenario is stupid. Theon/jeyne don t tell the truth to stannis knowing that some lords could leave the boltons if stannis told them the truth. Then stannis sends a stark to the wall when he knows that the clansmen are only with him because they wanted to save her. Hell, can you imagine how demoralizing it would be for the northerns in bolton's side to hear farya talk about how awfull the boltons are before a battle? I don t know if bolton blundered, but stannis definetly did by sending farya to the wall.

Women shouldn't be in a battle, so that was a good decision. And Theon is right that folks might no longer care much about her if they knew she wasn't Arya Stark. When push came to shove they would first think of themselves.

And folks already know how much the Boltons suck ... that's why they are there, ready to fight and bathe in Bolton blood before they die.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

Honestly, I don t even know why the boltons would think that jeyne and reek would go together to the wall. There is clearly something missing that convinced them that both are going there. And these inconsistencies are the reasons why I wanted to simply analise what were the consequences of jon receiving the PL without analising the its veracity or who might have written it. It is clear that there are things going behind the scenes that we don t know...

They know from Mance that the man behind the Arya rescue thing was Jon Snow. That alone confirms that the Wall is their most likely destination. They don't need to know that they got their via Stannis' camp.

Although they certainly could know that from prisoners they made in Stannis' camp if they crushed him. They could also learn that Theon is on his way there, too, if Stannis decided to send him there, too. Which he still could.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

Jon would always need to tell some part of the contents of the letter because ramsay is threatning to go to war with the NW. He can't keep that hidden because he has to prepara the NW for the attack.

He could do that. But he could also not do it. It would be his call. And if he were to hand over the people Ramsay demanded he would have to prepare for nothing.

He could also talk about a general threat without giving away any details ... especially not details that make him look guilty or treasonous.

Jon could have played the whole thing in a manner where Marsh wouldn't have assassinated him ... say, by preparing for a Bolton attack rather than attacking them.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

And jon didn t confirm if the contents about mance were true or not. He simply didn t comment them. And that was the best thing to do in case the news about mance being alive spread and it is proved he is an even bigger liar.

That is true, although for the wildlings the news about Mance is actually good ... and for the NW him going to war against the Boltons is the problem, not so much that Mance is alive and at Winterfell. They were likely pissed about that, too, but it isn't what triggered Jon's assassination.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

Honestly, I think jon would need to read such an important letter to some of the key figures in the NW and the boltons know that. Then the story would always spread. However, the nail in jon's coffin isn t so much that mance is alive but that stannis lost and ramsay is coming to destroy the NW if jon doesn t give him a bunch of people. The moment jon decides to fight ramsay in what seemed an unwinning situation the NW would turn against him. And it is pretty easy to predict this when the NW killed their last LC a few months ago in a mutiny.

That is true ... but to predict that Jon would be assassinated is a very big stretch. For that the Boltons would have to have detailed intel on the situation at the Wall. And they do not have that, as far as we know.

I doubt that Jon would have to read the letter to his officers. He could just as well have summarized it, focusing on the information he wanted to get across. He is the Lord Commander, he can do what he want.

I mean, if Roose received a Pink Letter-like threat from Jon he wouldn't be forced to read that letter to his men. He could do it. But he could just as well simply tell them what to do.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

You think this because you lack imagination. The wildlings are the best army to atack winterfell. They could scale the winterfell's wall during the night like it is childsplay and atack the boltons when they are sleeping. The problem is to hope that the boltons don t charge out of winterfell, but if they time their arrival it shouldn t be impossible.

Nah, that's ridiculous. The wildlings aren't soldiers, they have no idea about siege warfare, no realistic concepts of castles and how their work (think of Ygritte!). They can scale things, alright, but the walls of Winterfell would be manned by archers and crossbowmen and they would make short work of them. Roose could crush 3,000 wildlings with 300 men manning the walls easily enough. But he has 3,000+ loyal Dreadfort men at Winterfell, veterans of the Red Wedding, who likely do not expect any mercy from Stark loyalists.

There is only one way this would go down if Stannis was defeated and the Boltons still hold Winterfell.

30 minutes ago, divica said:

The part I totaly agree is that jon would need northmen in his army to give the idea of unity between wildlings and northmen in his army instead of a band of savages. And he could acomplish that by gathering the northmen that were with stannis and survived.

There would not many of those left. The clansmen have come to fight and bathe in Bolton blood before they die. They won't retreat, won't give way, even if they lose. They will fight to the very end. And then they will be dead.

If the Boltons crush Stannis they will have won the war.

[Hippocras]

18 hours ago, divica said:

But we are suposed to believe that maesters don´t send letters without their leaders telling them. If we start suspecting those things we enter a spiral where everything is possible.

And what do you think about the letter putting pressure on the NW to betray their LC (who just lied to them about killing mance and sent him to resuce his sister) or to die fighting a lost cause that has very little to do with the NW?

Oh I know it is speculative. But given the grumbling of the Night's Watch administrators in the weeks before the Pink letter, and the fact that Eastwatch is controlled by Glendon Hewett buddy of Slynt, combined with the message we know was coming from KL that the Watch would get no new men unless they let themselves be ruled from the South AND the clear intention of Cersei to have Jon murdered.... all of that to me suggests that the assassination of Jon was not particularly spontaneous. It was not done out of fear in the moment but had significant forethought. As the Boltons are the Lannister-sanctioned leaders in the North, coordination between the mutineers and the Boltons ahead of time is far from out of the question.

By that logic, the pink letter comes across as a signal. When Stannis was still a threat the Bolton/Lannister/Frey group could not openly attack the wildlings under protection of Stannis and the Watch. If Stannis is dead or believed to be dead it frees them up to attempt to unite the North behind a fight against wildlings. Even if they did not know about Tormund's arrival, they certainly knew Jon was trying very hard to bring more wildlings South via the Hardhome mission, making it easy to drum up resentment of Jon among Northmen and watch stewards alike.

Said coordination did not necessarily need to occur via maesters and/or ravens, but at least from the perspective of the brewing mutiny at the Wall it does make sense that those sending and receiving messages were on Marsh's side. After all, MOST Watch members who have never seen a white walker or wight were on Marsh's side. In any case there is a scarcity of actual maesters at the wall, so messages are being received and sent by characters not bound by maesters' oaths..

I think it needs to be recognized that Lannisters, Boltons and Littlefinger would all have seen Jon as a threat the second he was elected. The wildlings being let through the wall by Jon and Stannis is just a convenient excuse for what they all wanted to see happen anyway, which is the assassination of Jon. Indeed, they already attempted it.

[Jay21]

Depends on who wrote it.

[Hippocras]

Can I just point out here that the Vale has a wildling problem? Tyrion made good use of it, but clearly the Burned Men, Black Ears, Stone Crows etc. are a source of major resentment and hostilities in the Vale. This might be why quite a good share of Night's Watch members seem to hail from there: unlike futher South, fighting wildlings can be seen by them as a grand career. This is why the whole series begins with a Royce out beyond the Wall taking a great deal of pleasure in the idea of hunting down wildlings and showing quite a bit of contempt for them.

So fast forward to the Pink Letter - which serves most clearly as a means to provoke wildlings and Jon Snow to anger goading an attack: If as wildling attack were to occur, maybe we can also see it as an excuse for Roose Bolton to call on his Vale allies and those with House Frey connections (Redfort, Waynwood, Royce) to come join the fight in the North. Maybe this too was even part of the intent (if the letter came from the Boltons).

[Tagganaro]

If Ramsay was actually the author, which I think he was, the PL still raises some questions.  For one, I don't view Ramsay as smart enough to actually consider consequences.  I think if he was the author the PL would not have been written with a view as to how Jon would respond to it but rather as essentially a giant middle finger to Jon with Ramsay basically telling the truth- either give him the hostages or Ramsay's gonna head North and destroy the Watch.  Could an unhinged Ramsay who just finished torturing a spearwife or 5 quickly fire off this letter without finishing it off with his hallmark blood and body parts?  Sure, but I'd still think Ramsay would want to include these especially had he tortured the spearwives to further gloat to Jon.  

But the one thing that really throws me off is some of the language in the PL is clearly designed to evoke Mance.  I mean, Mance specifically tells Jon that Stannis burned him "for all the world to see."  I can't help but note the similarity between that and the PL's line about Mance being in a cage "for all the North to see."  Mance is obviously also a huge fan of calling NW's crows, and he calls Jon this all the time.  I'm not sure if we've seen other Northmen use the term 'crow' to disparagingly refer to NW brothers before.  And while the pointed use of the word 'bastard' is pure Ramsay, who would think it was the worst thing he could call somebody basically, it could also be pure Mance, who knows what makes Jon tick and could be a callback to their first ever convo where Jon uses his bastard status as a pretext for joining the wildlings ("Did you see where they sat me?  Did you see where they sat the bastard? etc.)

Mance is also noted as a trickster and would 100% consider the consequences of the PL, which I believe he would specifically want to goad Jon into doing exactly what Jon did and hand-delivering an army of wildlings to Mance so Mance could make a move to get out from under Stannis and Melisandre's control.  

Again though, I gotta go with Ramsay being the author.  It's just clearly the simplest solution and most straightforward reading of it all.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

If Ramsay was actually the author, which I think he was, the PL still raises some questions.  For one, I don't view Ramsay as smart enough to actually consider consequences.  I think if he was the author the PL would not have been written with a view as to how Jon would respond to it but rather as essentially a giant middle finger to Jon with Ramsay basically telling the truth- either give him the hostages or Ramsay's gonna head North and destroy the Watch.  Could an unhinged Ramsay who just finished torturing a spearwife or 5 quickly fire off this letter without finishing it off with his hallmark blood and body parts?  Sure, but I'd still think Ramsay would want to include these especially had he tortured the spearwives to further gloat to Jon.  

Ramsay wrote the letter, alright, but this doesn't mean he came up with the sentences he wrote. That could be - and most likely was - Roose Bolton, not Ramsay. Ramsay is just used as a puppet there because he is the guy who can provoke Jon and others.

Ramsay's earlier letters were most likely also written at the behest of Roose who wanted his bastard to intimidate Jon and Asha and, quite possibly, others in the North.

We also don't know how much time passed between the capture of the spearwives and the writing of the letter, so the heads of the people involved could have cooled down ... and would have if this actually took place after a battle against Stannis lasting seven days.

6 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

But the one thing that really throws me off is some of the language in the PL is clearly designed to evoke Mance.  I mean, Mance specifically tells Jon that Stannis burned him "for all the world to see."  I can't help but note the similarity between that and the PL's line about Mance being in a cage "for all the North to see."  Mance is obviously also a huge fan of calling NW's crows, and he calls Jon this all the time.  I'm not sure if we've seen other Northmen use the term 'crow' to disparagingly refer to NW brothers before.  And while the pointed use of the word 'bastard' is pure Ramsay, who would think it was the worst thing he could call somebody basically, it could also be pure Mance, who knows what makes Jon tick and could be a callback to their first ever convo where Jon uses his bastard status as a pretext for joining the wildlings ("Did you see where they sat me?  Did you see where they sat the bastard? etc.)

That is rather easy to deal with. Ramsay could have captured and interrogated/tortured Mance, too, meaning all this language you feel invokes Mance could have crept into the letter because Ramsay heard those phrases from Mance. Mance could have told Ramsay that Stannis burned the false guy 'for all the world to see' when he revealed himself/was revealed as Mance Rayder. Mance could have talked constantly about crows when talking Jon and the NW, etc.

And even if Mance wasn't captured ... Ramsay could have gotten all this talk just as well from the wildling women. They would definitely talk about Jon/the NW as crows and they might also have used the phrased 'for all the world to see'. Not that this is a particularly rare phrase in ASoIaF. It is used multiple times in the first three books as well as ADwD.

6 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Mance is also noted as a trickster and would 100% consider the consequences of the PL, which I believe he would specifically want to goad Jon into doing exactly what Jon did and hand-delivering an army of wildlings to Mance so Mance could make a move to get out from under Stannis and Melisandre's control.  

The idea that Mance wants to get out of Stannis and Melisandre's control is, at this point, completely without basis. If he wanted to do that, he would have never gone to Winterfell but would have used the opportunity that presented itself to return to his people north of the Wall and raise another army. It is also quite clear, I think, that he intended to pretect and train Jon for his role as leader (evident when he gives him his beating on the practice yard) as well as work with Stannis and Melisandre to defeat the Others.

Instead, Mance risked his own life to get Jon's sister out of Winterfell which basically profits only Stannis and Jon. And we should not kid ourselves. The chances that Mance isn't in that cage the letter mentions are not that good. The mission to save 'Arya' almost failed, and many of his women died.

In my opinion, the only chance for Mance to not be in that cage is if he still has that glamor Mel gave him and he is able to wear the thing without showing it off to others (a guy with a glowing ruby would be very conspicuous at Winterfell). Disguised as Rattleshirt he could hide among the soldiers in Winterfell, I guess. If he no longer has that protection they should capture him. He cannot leave the castle and if he were to hide they would find him with blood hounds and the like. He would have slept somewhere so dogs could easily get his scent, etc.

[divica]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Mance wants to get out of Stannis and Melisandre's control is, at this point, completely without basis. If he wanted to do that, he would have never gone to Winterfell but would have used the opportunity that presented itself to return to his people north of the Wall and raise another army. It is also quite clear, I think, that he intended to pretect and train Jon for his role as leader (evident when he gives him his beating on the practice yard) as well as work with Stannis and Melisandre to defeat the Others.

Instead, Mance risked his own life to get Jon's sister out of Winterfell which basically profits only Stannis and Jon. And we should not kid ourselves. The chances that Mance isn't in that cage the letter mentions are not that good. The mission to save 'Arya' almost failed, and many of his women died.

In my opinion, the only chance for Mance to not be in that cage is if he still has that glamor Mel gave him and he is able to wear the thing without showing it off to others (a guy with a glowing ruby would be very conspicuous at Winterfell). Disguised as Rattleshirt he could hide among the soldiers in Winterfell, I guess. If he no longer has that protection they should capture him. He cannot leave the castle and if he were to hide they would find him with blood hounds and the like. He would have slept somewhere so dogs could easily get his scent, etc.

Another important detail that people don't always talk about is this part of the letter

"Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of winterfell"

 

So it is pretty clear that if the boltons sent the letter they unveiled the northern conspiracy inside winterfell and were able to kill their enemies. And while I have a lot of doubts abouts the events outside of winterfell described in the letter I have very little doubt that what is said about inside winterfell is true. And it is also important to note that this setence makes very little sense unless it is the boltons gloating about having found and killed the lords that wanted to betray them.

I would find it very funny if stannis sends a letter to winterfell with false information about his defeat and it ends up costing him the lives of the lords that were ready to help him.

In regards to mance, aren't you forgeting that he should be under mel's control because of the ruby? If I am not mistaken she said so. And It also raises the question of how mance got rid of it and why. Hell, him going to winterfell instead of hanging around the lake is pretty weird. It could easily lead people to think that rescuing arya is a side quest for him. That he really wants something in winterfell and doesn t want mel knowing what he is doing.

[Tagganaro]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Ramsay wrote the letter, alright, but this doesn't mean he came up with the sentences he wrote. That could be - and most likely was - Roose Bolton, not Ramsay. Ramsay is just used as a puppet there because he is the guy who can provoke Jon and others.

Ramsay's earlier letters were most likely also written at the behest of Roose who wanted his bastard to intimidate Jon and Asha and, quite possibly, others in the North.

We also don't know how much time passed between the capture of the spearwives and the writing of the letter, so the heads of the people involved could have cooled down ... and would have if this actually took place after a battle against Stannis lasting seven days.

It's all speculation at this point, but the letter does seem rushed to me and not a conspiracy involving Roose who would be much more calculating.  That's what I get from the lack of blood and body parts.  I've always viewed it as a rushed overreaction by Ramsay with some weird Mance/wildling language in there too.  I don't see Roose signing off on something like this nor am I even sure how closely him and Ramsay would be able to cooperate on anything given their personalities .

Quote

 

That is rather easy to deal with. Ramsay could have captured and interrogated/tortured Mance, too, meaning all this language you feel invokes Mance could have crept into the letter because Ramsay heard those phrases from Mance. Mance could have told Ramsay that Stannis burned the false guy 'for all the world to see' when he revealed himself/was revealed as Mance Rayder. Mance could have talked constantly about crows when talking Jon and the NW, etc.

And even if Mance wasn't captured ... Ramsay could have gotten all this talk just as well from the wildling women. They would definitely talk about Jon/the NW as crows and they might also have used the phrased 'for all the world to see'. Not that this is a particularly rare phrase in ASoIaF. It is used multiple times in the first three books as well as ADwD.

The idea that Mance wants to get out of Stannis and Melisandre's control is, at this point, completely without basis. If he wanted to do that, he would have never gone to Winterfell but would have used the opportunity that presented itself to return to his people north of the Wall and raise another army. It is also quite clear, I think, that he intended to pretect and train Jon for his role as leader (evident when he gives him his beating on the practice yard) as well as work with Stannis and Melisandre to defeat the Others.

Instead, Mance risked his own life to get Jon's sister out of Winterfell which basically profits only Stannis and Jon. And we should not kid ourselves. The chances that Mance isn't in that cage the letter mentions are not that good. The mission to save 'Arya' almost failed, and many of his women died.

In my opinion, the only chance for Mance to not be in that cage is if he still has that glamor Mel gave him and he is able to wear the thing without showing it off to others (a guy with a glowing ruby would be very conspicuous at Winterfell). Disguised as Rattleshirt he could hide among the soldiers in Winterfell, I guess. If he no longer has that protection they should capture him. He cannot leave the castle and if he were to hide they would find him with blood hounds and the like. He would have slept somewhere so dogs could easily get his scent, etc.

 

It's tough for me to look at this rationally as Mance is one of my favorite characters.  Among other things I think the Mance/Jon practice yard scene is also meant to convey what a badass and monster Mance is.  I mean Jon is a pretty experienced fighter and he's seen a lot and even he doesn't believe how strong Mance is (and while this may be partly attributable to the glamour of Rattleshirt we know from multiple characters that Mance is quite strong).  I don't believe he's going down like a chump off-page.  But you could be right.  In my reading, Mance is likely to be hiding in the crypts at this point given his interest in them.

I do think Ramsay definitely has a spearwife or multiple ones in custody and that's where he's getting his info.  I also think it's obvious Mance would want out of Mel/Stannis situation given the situation with his "child".  I don't think mance could simply go North and raise another army.  That's unproductive in multiple ways but mostly doesn't help him get out of the hostage situation at all.  He, being Mance, would go for something far sneakier, and whether he is playing along with Mel/Stannis and this is part of their plan at this point or whether his "certain ploy" is something different we just have no information on as of yet.

I still remain very unconvinced that rescuing "Arya" is the extent of Mance's 'ploy' in Winterfell.  It could be, but I think there's more going on.