On the passage of Time

[Megorova]

On 4/26/2021 at 5:28 AM, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

What are you talking about? I'm honestly completely flabbergasted by this take.

In June look on this forum for a thread with this title - "Swan Song part 11/16. The Stallion that mounts the world". I'll explain there in details how Rhaego is alive and what GRRM is planning to do with him in the next two books.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

In June look on this forum for a thread with this title - "Swan Song part 11/16. The Stallion that mounts the world". I'll explain there in details how Rhaego is alive and what GRRM is planning to do with him in the next two books.

No, he isn't.

[Mister Smikes]

On 4/19/2021 at 9:55 AM, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

Samwell Tarly, Euron Crow's Eye, the Horn of Jorumun, Pate, Old Town, the Citadel, the Reach, and the High Tower. This one is a bit more pressing. The naval battle at the mouth of the Honeywine between the Ironborn and the Redwyne Fleet is immanent. After the Iron Born destroy the Redwyne Fleet though, who knows how long they may have to besiege the High Tower? Maybe Euron takes the city early, rules from the city while they besiege the High Tower, and it takes a year plus to get in. I think eventually Euron will blow the horn of Jorumun from the top of the High Tower and bring down the wall, but George can slow play it a little. I don't know how or when Sam will return to the North or how he loses his horn or how High Garden will play into this story.

None of this is real.  There will be no naval battle of any significance at the mount of the Honeywine.  The Redwyne fleet will encounter little opposition until they reach the Shield Islands.  This will keep them occupied for awhile, but eventually, the Ironborn fools who accepted these "poisoned gifts" from Euron will get their asses handed to them.  Euron will be long gone from the area.

What this ultimately means is that the Redwyne Fleet will be on the other side of Westeros, when -- partly with the aid of Ironborn Ships --  Dany brings over her Unsullied and her Dothraki hordes and her dragons.

Sam will be Sam only in seeming if and when he returns to the North, perhaps with the Horn.  He will be the Alchemist, wearing Sam's face.

 

 

[divica]

1 hour ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

No, he isn't.

short and to the point. I liked it.

14 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

None of this is real.  There will be no naval battle of any significance at the mount of the Honeywine.  The Redwyne fleet will encounter little opposition until they reach the Shield Islands.  This will keep them occupied for awhile, but eventually, the Ironborn fools who accepted these "poisoned gifts" from Euron will get their asses handed to them.  Euron will be long gone from the area.

What this ultimately means is that the Redwyne Fleet will be on the other side of Westeros, when -- partly with the aid of Ironborn Ships --  Dany brings over her Unsullied and her Dothraki hordes and her dragons.

Sam will be Sam only in seeming if and when he returns to the North, perhaps with the Horn.  He will be the Alchemist, wearing Sam's face.

 

 

You know this isn't possible right? That the redwine fleet will be destroyed very early and that euron will use the advantage of having the strongest fleet near westeros for something.

It can be to seek an aliance with who is on the IT, it can be to raid important and rich locations or to conquer some land.

[Mister Smikes]

On 4/19/2021 at 9:55 AM, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

Edric Dayne: 12 missing in the Riverlands

You can see why George wanted to do a five year gap. Things would go much smoother if Bran was 15 and Sansa would work better at 18 and Jon would be stabbed at 20. Rickon would be a person when he showed back up at 10. Edric Dayne could show back up as a knight and Sword of the Morning.

Edric's age is only an estimate.  He could be older than we think.  But that won't help much if we want him to transform into the sort of tall warrior who could plausibly wield a greatsword like Dawn.

But I don't think we need worry about Edric being big and bad enough to wield Dawn himself.  Edric is Lord of Starfall -- and his role in the story will be to bestow Dawn -- and the title "Sword of the Morning" -- on a worthy knight, whom I guess he will continue to squire for.

People assume that Edric is the only candidate for Sword of the Morning (unless you want to also consider Gerold), because they assume you have to be a Dayne to be a Sword of the Morning.  But customs in Dorne are different, and I think they are failing to consider the possibility that an outsider can became a "knight of House Dayne" and/or adopt the name "Dayne" by marrying - or perhaps only being betrothed -- into the House.  And Allyria Dayne is now available, now that her betrothed, Beric Dondarion, is gone for good.

[Mister Smikes]

12 minutes ago, divica said:

You know this isn't possible right?

No, I don't know.  Explain why it is not possible?

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That the redwine fleet will be destroyed very early and that euron will use the advantage of having the strongest fleet near westeros for something.

It can be to seek an aliance with who is on the IT, it can be to raid important and rich locations or to conquer some land.

Euron's style is to pass through like a storm leaving death and destruction and chaos in his wake.  The suckers he left behind on the Shield Islands are going to get themselves wiped out, while they serve as a useful distraction to get the Redwyne fleet out of the way of Dany's crossing.   But of course, Euron has already sent the bulk of the Iron Fleet to Meereen, and will no doubt soon be joining them himself with the Silence, 12 other Ironborn ships, and whatever ships he manages to capture.  Euron does not need to hug the shore, and can easily bypass the Redwyne fleet.  Any ships that survive the slaughter in Meereen can be used to transport hordes of Dothraki rapists to Westeros to "help" Dany.  After that, he will no doubt have little further use for them.

[divica]

4 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

No, I don't know.  Explain why it is not possible?

Euron's style is to pass through like a storm leaving death and destruction and chaos in his wake.  The suckers he left behind on the Shield Islands are going to get themselves wiped out.   But of course, he has already sent the bulk of the Iron Fleet to Meereen, and will no doubt soon be joining them himself with the Silence, 12 other Ironborn ships, and whatever ships he manages to capture.  Any ships that survive the slaughter in Meereen can be used to transport hordes of Dothraki rapists to Westeros to "help" Dany.  After that, he will no doubt have no further use for them.

He is starting the fight against the redwine fleet in the forsaken...

[Mister Smikes]

16 minutes ago, divica said:

He is starting the fight against the redwine fleet in the forsaken...

Yes, I know you believe that assumption.  What evidence do you have that it is not merely an assumption?

[Mister Smikes]

On 4/19/2021 at 9:55 AM, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

Aegon: Allegedly 17-18, actually probably 15-16.

"Allegedly 18-19" would be a better fit with what we know about when Baby Aegon was born. 

As for Young Griff, I do not think he is Aegon, but I think he is about the right age to be Aegon, born 281.  At age 3, his dad proposed to foster him with the Yronwoods to appease his vassal, but his mom threw a tantrum because she did not want to be separated from her son.  Thereafter, his dad swapped him for the real Aegon and eventually sent the real Aegon to foster with the Yronwoods in place of Young Griff.  Young Griff was then sent to Norvos with his mom.  Of course ,his birth name was not "Young Griff".

[Mister Smikes]

On 4/21/2021 at 8:07 AM, Megorova said:

Who else do you think he meant by that twelve-year old who will conquer the world? 

There is no specific 12-year old who is going to conquer the world.  It is simply a hyperbolic and hypothetical example of the sort of thing he has in mind.  Had he given you a real example, that would have been a spoiler.  So he did not give you a real example.

[Mister Smikes]

On 4/19/2021 at 9:55 AM, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

TLDR: I think George could (not will or should) stretch out the plot of the Winds of Winter over three years to age up the child characters to solve some problems.

GRRM has already, in the text, announced the start of winter.  But my subjective impression is that GRRM still needs to get through a fair amount of plot development before winter sets in in real earnest.  I suspect this means that GRRM will have to (or, at least, is planning to) keep the events of the coming book focused on a relatively short time frame -- not anything as long as 3 years.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

21 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

No, I don't know.  Explain why it is not possible?

 

20 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Yes, I know you believe that assumption.  What evidence do you have that it is not merely an assumption?

I announced I was using Spoilers from Preview chapters so I'm going to tell you that in the Chapter "The Foresaken" which is an Aeron chapter he read at Balticon (I believe in 2019) Euron had left the Shield Islands and was about to start a battle with the Redwyne Fleet at the mouth of the Honeywine River.

20 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

"Allegedly 18-19" would be a better fit with what we know about when Baby Aegon was born. 

As for Young Griff, I do not think he is Aegon, but I think he is about the right age to be Aegon, born 281.  At age 3, his dad proposed to foster him with the Yronwoods to appease his vassal, but his mom threw a tantrum because she did not want to be separated from her son.  Thereafter, his dad swapped him for the real Aegon and eventually sent the real Aegon to foster with the Yronwoods in place of Young Griff.  Young Griff was then sent to Norvos with his mom.  Of course ,his birth name was not "Young Griff".

Again, from the preview chapters Doran appears to not know whether or not Aegon is real. He wants to believe it's Aegon, but he;s not convinced so he sends Arrianne, his heir and daughter to check it out. There is absolutely no evidence Doran ever thought Aegon had survived. Quentyn fostered with the Yronwoods, not Aegon. Tyrion thinks the boy is 15-16 when he meets him, but Aegon would be 17-18 if it were really him. That's what I'm basing that on. Varys and illyrio are passing off their own candidate as Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar.

21 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

No, I don't know.  Explain why it is not possible?

Euron's style is to pass through like a storm leaving death and destruction and chaos in his wake.  The suckers he left behind on the Shield Islands are going to get themselves wiped out, while they serve as a useful distraction to get the Redwyne fleet out of the way of Dany's crossing.   But of course, Euron has already sent the bulk of the Iron Fleet to Meereen, and will no doubt soon be joining them himself with the Silence, 12 other Ironborn ships, and whatever ships he manages to capture.  Euron does not need to hug the shore, and can easily bypass the Redwyne fleet.  Any ships that survive the slaughter in Meereen can be used to transport hordes of Dothraki rapists to Westeros to "help" Dany.  After that, he will no doubt have little further use for them.

Euron sent *The Iron Fleet* to Meereen to fetch Dany, which was partially just to get rid of his brother Victarion and the majority of men most loyal to him. *The Iron Fleet* is the official military fleet of the Iron Islands and consists of actual warships. Euron's fleet is basically the personal ships of every lord and town in the Iron Islands captained by the lords and their men. 

 

21 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Edric's age is only an estimate.  He could be older than we think.  But that won't help much if we want him to transform into the sort of tall warrior who could plausibly wield a greatsword like Dawn.

But I don't think we need worry about Edric being big and bad enough to wield Dawn himself.  Edric is Lord of Starfall -- and his role in the story will be to bestow Dawn -- and the title "Sword of the Morning" -- on a worthy knight, whom I guess he will continue to squire for.

People assume that Edric is the only candidate for Sword of the Morning (unless you want to also consider Gerold), because they assume you have to be a Dayne to be a Sword of the Morning.  But customs in Dorne are different, and I think they are failing to consider the possibility that an outsider can became a "knight of House Dayne" and/or adopt the name "Dayne" by marrying - or perhaps only being betrothed -- into the House.  And Allyria Dayne is now available, now that her betrothed, Beric Dondarion, is gone for good.

Edric's age is only an estimate, but it's likely not far off. He's certainly too young to be a knight himself. The only knight we know of even around his age was Daemon Blackfyre who was 15, but he was a kings bastard and considered exceptional. 16 is the next youngest we hear about but most are Knighted after turning 18. We DO NOT know how the title Sword of the Morning is bestowed and to assume it's just picked by the Lord of Starfall seems highly unlikely since nothing would stop most lords from just naming themselves Swords of the Morning. We only know that one must be "worthy" to wield the sword. Edric Dayne is a convenient person to wield Dawn, as the only other Dayne we've met seems unworthy and I'm sure when George introduced him in Storm of Swords as a person 12-14 years of age (knowing at the time he was about to do a five year time-skip) he intended Lord Edric to eventually be SotM.

[The Wondering Wolf]

42 minutes ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

Edric's age is only an estimate, but it's likely not far off. He's certainly too young to be a knight himself. The only knight we know of even around his age was Daemon Blackfyre who was 15, but he was a kings bastard and considered exceptional. 16 is the next youngest we hear about but most are Knighted after turning 18. We DO NOT know how the title Sword of the Morning is bestowed and to assume it's just picked by the Lord of Starfall seems highly unlikely since nothing would stop most lords from just naming themselves Swords of the Morning. We only know that one must be "worthy" to wield the sword. Edric Dayne is a convenient person to wield Dawn, as the only other Dayne we've met seems unworthy and I'm sure when George introduced him in Storm of Swords as a person 12-14 years of age (knowing at the time he was about to do a five year time-skip) he intended Lord Edric to eventually be SotM.

Edric himself tells Arya he is twelve, so I think it's pretty clear how old he is.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

I announced I was using Spoilers from Preview chapters so I'm going to tell you that in the Chapter "The Foresaken" which is an Aeron chapter he read at Balticon (I believe in 2019) Euron had left the Shield Islands and was about to start a battle with the Redwyne Fleet at the mouth of the Honeywine River.

I am familiar with the chapter.   Early on, Euron tells Aeron that the Silence is sailing south "for dragons".   The chapter ends several months later with Euron leaving a base on an Island off the Arbor (not the Shields), for an unknown destination.

I recall nothing suggesting he is headed for the Honeywine River.  He does mention that the Redwyne Fleet is coming.  He also anticipates that the Shields will be lost; that others will take the blame for this (the fools who accepted these gifts), and that he does not care because it is not his problem.  Putting 2 and 2 together, the logical assumption is that Euron expects the Redwyne Fleet to re-conquer the Shields and that he does not expect to be still around when that happens.

In my opinion, he is heading for Slaver's Bay.

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Again, from the preview chapters Doran appears to not know whether or not Aegon is real.

It is not Doran's modus operandi to reveal all he knows.  Surely his chapters hammer that point clearly enough.   The reason we are never given access to his POV, is so we can hear what he says, without ever knowing what he is thinking.  This objection is meaningless.

IMHO a better interpretation of his words to Arianne is that he did expect fAegon's invasion, but is worried, because he expected fAegon to join forces with Dany before coming.  

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There is absolutely no evidence Doran ever thought Aegon had survived.

Varys told a dying man that Aegon survived.  If Aegon did survive then it is certainly possible that his uncle and closest living relative would be brought in on the secret.  Your idea is that if Doran had known the secret he would have dropped not-so-subtle hints about it to all and sundry.  I don't think he would have.  That's not how you keep secrets.  

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Quentyn fostered with the Yronwoods, not Aegon.

Doran swapped his nephew for his son.   He paid the Yronwoods with false coin.  And now he plots to put his son on the Iron Throne.  Just a theory.

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Tyrion thinks the boy is 15-16 when he meets him, but Aegon would be 17-18 if it were really him.

Tyrion thought Jon was 12, but had no problem accepting he was really 14.  There is nothing suggesting Tyrion knows or believes that Young Griff is too young to be the real Aegon.

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Varys and illyrio are passing off their own candidate as Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar.

Sure.  Lady Lemore is really Mellario of Norvos.  She is the daughter of Illyrio and Serra (a Blackfyre) and the mother of Young Griff.  Young Griff is the real Quentyn Martell, the son of Doran Martell, the grandson of Illyrio and also a Blackfyre.  When we first meet Lemore and Young Griff, we are halfway between Pentos and Norvos on the Pentos-to-Norvos road.  And they did not come from Pentos.  Just a theory.

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Euron sent *The Iron Fleet* to Meereen to fetch Dany, which was partially just to get rid of his brother Victarion and the majority of men most loyal to him.

Euron wants Dany and he wants Dragons and he wants the Iron Throne.  He does not give a damn about the Seastone Chair, or about the Shield Islands.  He has made absolutely no secret of this.  Euron sent Vicarion to Slaver's bay, because his other Ironborn Lords refused to go.  They were stubborn and hard to manipulate.  But Victarion is stupid and easy to manipulate.  The fact remains that Slaver's Bay is Euron's goal and his destination. 

He sent Victarion ahead, and no doubt expects to arrive himself soon after.  With his use of blood magic to manipulate the winds and "ride the storm", he can travel much faster than Victarion can, and no doubt will arrive not long afterwards.

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*The Iron Fleet* is the official military fleet of the Iron Islands and consists of actual warships. Euron's fleet is basically the personal ships of every lord and town in the Iron Islands captained by the lords and their men. 

Euron's current fleet consists of (1) the Silence; (2) the Ships (presumably 12 of them) of his 12 Ironborn captains; (3) a large number of captured ships.  It is unclear if the captured ships were left behind when they sailed from the Arbor.

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We DO NOT know how the title Sword of the Morning is bestowed and to assume it's just picked by the Lord of Starfall seems highly unlikely since nothing would stop most lords from just naming themselves Swords of the Morning. We only know that one must be "worthy" to wield the sword.

[Shrug] Well then, I guess Merlin will just have to stick it into a stone from which only a worthy knight can draw it.  Or something.  What alternative do you propose?  A democratic vote?

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Edric Dayne is a convenient person to wield Dawn, as the only other Dayne we've met seems unworthy

So you want him to just name himself after all.  Merely because he is Lord Dayne.  Very convenient.

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and I'm sure when George introduced him in Storm of Swords as a person 12-14 years of age (knowing at the time he was about to do a five year time-skip) he intended Lord Edric to eventually be SotM.

Edric is too minor a character for such a development to be meaningful or satisfying, regardless of his age.  What is even the point of the "worthy knight" criteria, if it is just going to be bestowed on the only available Dayne.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

So you want him to just name himself after all.  Merely because he is Lord Dayne.  Very convenient.

Edric is too minor a character for such a development to be meaningful or satisfying, regardless of his age.  What is even the point of the "worthy knight" criteria, if it is just going to be bestowed on the only available Dayne.

No, I don't think the Lord of Starfall names the Swords of the Morning. I think there is some other, likely Magical, method for choosing.

I don't know why I'm arguing with you since you've left the real world for tin-foil land a long time ago. Go hang out with Aegon who's actual Quentyn and Rhaego son of Drogo.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

3 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Edric himself tells Arya he is twelve, so I think it's pretty clear how old he is.

Thank you for correcting me. I shouldn't have trusted a crack-pot correcting me to begin with.

[divica]

7 minutes ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

No, I don't think the Lord of Starfall names the Swords of the Morning. I think there is some other, likely Magical, method for choosing.

I just hope that darkstar tries to take the sword and when obara and the other guys get there we have a description of what someone must do to get dawn.

If anyone is trying to weild the sword it must be darkstar.

[Ser Joe the Unknighted]

16 minutes ago, divica said:

I just hope that darkstar tries to take the sword and when obara and the other guys get there we have a description of what someone must do to get dawn.

If anyone is trying to weild the sword it must be darkstar.

I’m sure we’re about to see Star Fall for the first time. I think Ser Avalon, Obara, and Areo will stop in there and talk to Allyria Dayne and Ned Dayne on the way to High Hermitage. 

[divica]

5 minutes ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

I’m sure we’re about to see Star Fall for the first time. I think Ser Avalon, Obara, and Areo will stop in there and talk to Allyria Dayne and Ned Dayne on the way to High Hermitage. 

I have no idea why doran and all that folk think darkstar will be in High hermitage. Are we suposed to think that darkstar plans to defend his holding against whatever forces doran is sending against him?

Isn't it much easier to go to star fall, steal dawn and then gather whatever forces he can a go somewhere safe? What is there for him in dorne?

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

No, I don't think the Lord of Starfall names the Swords of the Morning. I think there is some other, likely Magical, method for choosing.

I'm okay with the idea that the method might be magical, or whatever.  But no matter the method, there is no point to the "worthy knight" criteria, if we are just going to bestow the sword on the only available Dayne merely because he is a Dayne.

1 hour ago, Ser Joe the Unknighted said:

I don't know why I'm arguing with you since you've left the real world for tin-foil land a long time ago. 

Better the realm of tinfoil, than the petty realm you just entered.