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Heresy 235 The Winter Snow


Black Crow

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2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I guess it depends upon when Joanna was dismissed as Rhaella's lady in waiting, because the text does support that she remained in Rhaella's service after her marriage to Tywin.

That's the quote I wanted.  Interesting that the world book only says Joanna was dismissed.  A short time is a bit ambiguous.  

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

I've no dog in this race, but GRRM has gone to a lot of trouble to hint at a relationship. There were obviously stories, else Pycelle wouldn't need to deny them, but there are no obvious consequences to those stories. So why include these references? On the other hand, if they are true, why ?

I'm thinking that if the PWIP comes from the line of Aerys and his wife;  the warrior of light might also be an offspring of Aerys.  Rhaegar thought he was the warrior.  That could turn out to be Jaime instead.  That would make Jon a red herring even if he is Rhaegar's son.

I'm not sure how we would discover it though. But why go to the trouble of suggesting it in the first place.  IIRC Martin did say that he didn't get caught up in timelines or something to that affect..

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58 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I'm not sure how we would discover it though. But why go to the trouble of suggesting it in the first place.  IIRC Martin did say that he didn't get caught up in timelines or something to that affect..

Quite. He alo said the same thing about distances, so as I said it may be unwise to refute things by counting on fingers. Melifeather has some good arguments as to why GRRM has seeded this story and returning [at last] to the OP, I've argued before that there's a lot of possible iriny in the war [Bob's Rebellion] being fought over Lyanna - or rather, was it ?

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1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Quite. He alo said the same thing about distances, so as I said it may be unwise to refute things by counting on fingers. Melifeather has some good arguments as to why GRRM has seeded this story and returning [at last] to the OP, I've argued before that there's a lot of possible iriny in the war [Bob's Rebellion] being fought over Lyanna - or rather, was it ?

Well, Ned did say that he would rather entrust a child to a pit viper before he'd trust a Lannister.  

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Well, Ned did say that he would rather entrust a child to a pit viper before he'd trust a Lannister.  

The Red Viper? A green viper of House Lynderly of the Snakewood? Lyn Corbray (and his venom)?, a Wylla of Wyl (House Wyl's sigill is a nod to Blackadder)?

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19 minutes ago, Tucu said:

The Red Viper? A green viper of House Lynderly of the Snakewood? Lyn Corbray (and his venom)?, a Wylla of Wyl (House Wyl's sigill is a nod to Blackadder)?

I'm thinking Oberyn Martell actually.  I hadn't thought about Jon's milk mother though.

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22 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I'm thinking Oberyn Martell actually.  I hadn't thought about Jon's milk mother though.

Maybe this SSM is relevant (even if ambiguous):

Quote

[Where was Oberyn Martell during the rebellion?]

Good question. Offhand, I don't recall the answer. Maybe in Dorne, maybe across the narrow sea with a sellsword company. I'd have to check my notes to be certain.

 

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13 hours ago, Tucu said:

Maybe this SSM is relevant (even if ambiguous):

 

Doesn't sound as if it was significant, unless by elimination. I think that Lord Eddard was just expressing himself.

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25 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Doesn't sound as if it was significant, unless by elimination. I think that Lord Eddard was just expressing himself.

I was thinking that GRRM is not too sure (or he is not telling) on the location of the Red Viper during the rebellion.

In the meantime he has included 2 types of "vipers" in what appears to be a re-creation (or play) of what happened during/after the Harrenhal tourney. The secret financier (Littlefinger) is allied with the Lynderlys (stand-ins for the Wyls?) and with venomous Lyn Corbray (stand-in for the Red Viper?)

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I like Oberyn Martell as a character. Still, he doesn't fit well into the story and I wonder whether GRRM invented him later on.

Why wasn't he part of the Dornish forces fighting at the Trident?

Why wasn't he at the ToJ?

Why is he going to King's Landing asking revenge for Elia only after Robert's death? If he isn't afraid to fight the Mountain, he shouldn't be afraid of Robert either?

Out-of-story, IMHO his appearance marks the point when GRRM starts to lose control of the narrative, i.e. the garden.

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3 hours ago, alienarea said:

I like Oberyn Martell as a character. Still, he doesn't fit well into the story and I wonder whether GRRM invented him later on.

Why wasn't he part of the Dornish forces fighting at the Trident?

Why wasn't he at the ToJ?

Why is he going to King's Landing asking revenge for Elia only after Robert's death? If he isn't afraid to fight the Mountain, he shouldn't be afraid of Robert either?

Clearly there was something more going on. Trouserless Bob is gone and the Lannisters are more overtly in charge, and tightening their grip. This was intended to be just the start of something bigger. 

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As to the wider picture, this brings us back [albeit circuitously] to the OP.

A superficial reading of A Game of Thrones suggests that King Aerys son, Prince Rhaegar espies a young girl from the north, who may or not appear as a Mystery Knight at a tourney, and publicly honours her. Then weeks or perhaps months later he abruptly abducts or elopes with her and disappears. Thereupon a young nobleman crashes into the King's palace loudly hurling threats and challenges. Like any self-respecting mediaeval monarch, the King has him executed and takes down the father for good measure. He also calls for the brother to be delivered up, along with an apparently innocent third party. As a result war breaks out and a 300 year old dynasty is toppled. 

In its place, the Blessed St. John of Arryn takes control of the Kingdom behind Trouserless Bob [as he has been all along], the Martells lose out at the Trident and afterwards when the Lannisters storm King's Landing, only for Jaime Lannister to bottle a coup. And all this time the abducted girl is forgotten about in the great game until she turns up dying after its all over.

As the story has ground on we've learned that nothing was as it seemed. There was already a northern conspiracy being orchestrated by John Arryn which Prince Rhaegar tried to avert at Harrenhal first by that conspicuous gesture at the tourney ["I know what's going on"] and afterwards by abducting the Stark girl to frustrate the network of family alliances being woven against the Crown - which was reason enough for King Aerys to act. Sure he was a bit over the top in his savagery, but that only serves to obscure the old story that just because he [Aerys] was paranoid it doesn't mean the bastards weren't out to get him.

In that context Rhaegar and Lyanna are irrelevant and their story a red herring. His purpose was to frustrate the Northern Conspiracy, but instead he precipitated rather than managed it, and got his family killed - including Dorian Martell's daughter and grandchildren - while the ostensible cause of it all, Lyanna Stark, was just another casualty of war

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I tend to think that Rhaegar didn't put a lot of thought into his gesture. Recall that Loras gave Sansa a rose and promptly forgot all about it whereas Sansa thought it was this big romantic gesture. The laurel that Rhaegar gave Lyanna was described as blue roses which we learn are grown in Winterfell's glasshouse garden. I think Rhaegar saw that the flowers were blue and simply gave them to a daughter of Winterfell and was oblivious to how his thoughtlessness was perceived by everyone else. Then some sneaky fellow like Littlefinger or Varys, passed that information onto Tywin who then capitalized on the gaffe by having a small group of trusted men pose as Rhaegar and his men - banners and armor and all - and abducted Lyanna while Rhaegar was out of town on Dragonstone attending the birth of his son. If anyone plotted a conspiracy it was Tywin and Jon Arryn.

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15 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I tend to think that Rhaegar didn't put a lot of thought into his gesture. Recall that Loras gave Sansa a rose and promptly forgot all about it whereas Sansa thought it was this big romantic gesture. The laurel that Rhaegar gave Lyanna was described as blue roses which we learn are grown in Winterfell's glasshouse garden. I think Rhaegar saw that the flowers were blue and simply gave them to a daughter of Winterfell and was oblivious to how his thoughtlessness was perceived by everyone else. Then some sneaky fellow like Littlefinger or Varys, passed that information onto Tywin who then capitalized on the gaffe by having a small group of trusted men pose as Rhaegar and his men - banners and armor and all - and abducted Lyanna while Rhaegar was out of town on Dragonstone attending the birth of his son. If anyone plotted a conspiracy it was Tywin and Jon Arryn.

Oh I think that Rhaegar knew exactly what he was doing, and it wasn't a romantic gesture but at one and the same time a warning and an invitation to join with him.

Its possible that Tywin may have orchestrated the subsequent abduction, but I think that would be an unnecessary complication. He was running his own attempt on the throne - which provides Rhaegar another reason to look for allies of his own, and as I said it may have succeeded if Jaimie Lannister was in on it and didn't bottle the opportunity which dropped into his lap.

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My personal thought is that there wasn't anything political about Harrenhal.  If so then it appears to be one of the clumsiest political gaffes ever.

My guess is GRRM is giving us a hint by putting this tourney in a False Spring.  As we've discussed in the past, there are a lot of parallels with the Harrenhal tourney and with Beltane or May Day festivals.  Green Man included.  So what we may be looking at is a fertility ritual.

So the recipe is to invite a number of Lords and lordlings who are descended from First Men Kings.  Especially those younger lords and lordlings like Robert Baratheon, Brandon Stark, Mace Tyrell ect.

Mix alcohol with a noted beauty ( and possible close confidant) like Ashara Dayne), and voila, you've mixed yourself a recipe for king's blood that may be needed later on to get your prince that was promised his dragon.  Lo and behold, Ashara Dayne leaves the tourney carrying a child.

Add in the fact that the Night's Watch is present to make a recruiting speech to the knights, and it all adds into the idea that Rhaegar is very subtly trying to get the realm ready for an upcoming Battle for the Dawn.  The very thing that his son is prophecised to lead the fight in.

So the question in my mind is where does Lyanna fit in?  My guess is something about the mystery knight resonated with one of the prophecies that Rhaegar may have been chasing during this time period as he was getting everything ready for his prince that was promised.  And thus, Lyanna got pulled into his plans.  

It appears that Aerys and Rhaegar entered into some sort of detente after Harrenhal.  So much so that Aerys apparently allowed Rhaegar  to take two of the precious Kingsguards with him as he rode out to carry out his plans.  And the only thing that I can think of which would have brought father and son together, is a shared dream of dragons.

 

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6 hours ago, alienarea said:

I like Oberyn Martell as a character. Still, he doesn't fit well into the story and I wonder whether GRRM invented him later on.

Why wasn't he part of the Dornish forces fighting at the Trident?

Why wasn't he at the ToJ?

I would also suspect that the narrative with Oberyn that ultimately took shape in Storms was part of "the story growing in the telling," rather than something that was meticulously planned from the outset.

As for the questions you raise, this SSM does give a small amount of insight into House Martell's sentiments during Robert's Rebellion:

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Baratheon_Brothers/

Quote

But it's not entirely correct that the Martells stayed out of the war. Rhaegar had Dornish troops with him on the Trident, under the command of Prince Lewyn of the Kingsguard. However, the Dornishmen did not support him as strongly as they might have, in part because of anger at his treatment of Elia, in part because of Prince Doran's innate caution.

At least one of the factors here is that Rhaegar was not exactly popular with House Martell at that point in time. As for the ToJ, I suspect that House Martell did not know what Rhaegar was up to.

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23 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

My personal thought is that there wasn't anything political about Harrenhal.  If so then it appears to be one of the clumsiest political gaffes ever.

Agreed. If we could slot Rhaegar's hypothetical motives into three broad potential categories during his final days - prophesy, love, or politics - I think politics is the one that makes the least sense. 

Political motives don't particularly align with what limited insight we're given into his characterization, and as you say, if he really was trying his hand at political maneuvering, then he appears to have been the worst player in the history of Westeros. He not only offended the Baratheons and the Starks, but he offended the people that should have been his most staunch allies - House Martell - and made his own father suspicious.

This memory from Jaime seems somewhat telling:

Quote

Jon Connington had been Prince Rhaegar's friend. When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship.

Even as things fell apart for House Targaryen - which, regardless of whether not Rhaegar wanted to ultimately depose Aerys, would have still been bad for Rhaegar politically - Rhaegar remained MIA, and whatever he was doing, it doesn't appear to have been adding to either his own political strength, or the strength of House Targaryen.

Finally, Jaime's memory of Rhaegar lamenting "roads not taken," IMO points toward Rhaegar not wanting to have to confront Aerys over his erratic rule.

I would suspect he spent his final days either acting on a scale that he would have felt transcended the political fate of House Targaryen - by seeing the PtwP prophesy fulfilled - or, on the opposite end of the spectrum, behaving selfishly.

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2 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I would also suspect that the narrative with Oberyn that ultimately took shape in Storms was part of "the story growing in the telling," rather than something that was meticulously planned from the outset.

As for the questions you raise, this SSM does give a small amount of insight into House Martell's sentiments during Robert's Rebellion:

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Baratheon_Brothers/

At least one of the factors here is that Rhaegar was not exactly popular with House Martell at that point in time. As for the ToJ, I suspect that House Martell did not know what Rhaegar was up to.

Which brings up another point I fail to understand after all those years and heresies:

When you fight the decisive battle of the rebellion, not too far away from your capital, why don't you bring your best friend, who happens to be the best fighter of the realm, and carries a mystical, superior sword?

Unless an upcoming book reveals that the ToJ as we know it was but a dream and Arthur Dayne got killed before the Trident, Aerys may have been mad but Rhaegar is beyond stupid.

Hint: he likes to play lute

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Who is the weirwood tree? Is it Bloodraven? Or Bran?

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Bran III

Bran looked down, and felt his insides turn to water. The ground was rushing up at him now. The whole world was spread out below him, a tapestry of white and brown and green. He could see everything so clearly that for a moment he forgot to be afraid. He could see the whole realm, and everyone in it.

He saw Winterfell as the eagles see it, the tall towers looking squat and stubby from above, the castle walls just lines in the dirt. He saw Maester Luwin on his balcony, studying the sky through a polished bronze tube and frowning as he made notes in a book. He saw his brother Robb, taller and stronger than he remembered him, practicing swordplay in the yard with real steel in his hand. He saw Hodor, the simple giant from the stables, carrying an anvil to Mikken's forge, hefting it onto his shoulder as easily as another man might heft a bale of hay. At the heart of the godswood, the great white weirwood brooded over its reflection in the black pool, its leaves rustling in a chill wind. When it felt Bran watching, it lifted its eyes from the still waters and stared back at him knowingly.

brooding:   showing deep unhappiness of thought

knowingly:  in a way that suggests one has secret knowledge or awareness.

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On 6/9/2021 at 5:48 PM, Matthew. said:

At least one of the factors here is that Rhaegar was not exactly popular with House Martell at that point in time. As for the ToJ, I suspect that House Martell did not know what Rhaegar was up to.

I've suggested in the past that the tower situation is misunderstood. For the faithful it is Rhaegar's secret love-nest where he and Lyanna dallied far from prying eyes while the kingdom fell apart around them. That of course ignores the facts that at one and the same time It is a bleak and desolate spot where strangers and strange going ons will be headline news in the Mulesville Gazette, and yet it was a watchtower overlooking the Prince's Pass, one of the two principal roads in or out of Dorne.

My take on this is that if Rhaegar truly named the place the Tower of Joy, it was because it was there he welcomed his bride-to-be, Elia of Dorne. As to the gunfight at the OK Corral I reckon that was due to two options; either Lord Eddard and his companions ran down the fugitives there, or, more likely given the ritual formality of the rencounter, the three ronin had deposited Lyanna at Starfall and were heading back north to atone for their dereliction by slaying the Usurper and his men or dying in the attempt.

Fitting Doran Martell into this is thus explicable. He might have been a reluctant vassal of Aerys, but the Usurper and his men had slain his son and all the other Dornishmen and true who fell at the Trident, and then his daughter and his grandchildren, murdered at King's Landing.

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11 hours ago, LynnS said:

Who is the weirwood tree? Is it Bloodraven? Or Bran?

brooding:   showing deep unhappiness of thought

knowingly:  in a way that suggests one has secret knowledge or awareness.

Neither, its the collective consciousness into which all the Greeshka are absorbed - unless they escape as White Walkers

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