Heresy 235 The Winter Snow

[MaesterSam]

Great discussion you have going on here! Just popping in and thought I'd share my two cents.

On 6/16/2021 at 8:41 AM, Frey family reunion said:

While I think I lean towards LynnS's interpretation that the quote implies that Jon is not Ned's child, I can see your argument as well.

After all most nobles would draw a hard line between their legal children and their bastards, and think of them separately especially in a scenario like this.  I've often thought of Ned as different than most lords, but .

But to add further credence to your argument, even if Jon is not Ned's biological son, he is certainly Ned's adopted son, so without a doubt Ned certainly doesn't elevate Jon to the status of his natural/legal children.

To me the most interesting aspect of that quote, is the idea that Jon would think of Cat as a potential threat to Jon.  So the question is what does Ned think would happen to make Cat a threat to Jon?

I can see the R + L crowd's argument that Cat might turn Jon over to Robert if she learned that Rhaegar was Jon's father to avoid any retribution from the Crown.  But part of that flies in the face of Ned's seemingly honest belief that Robert would never harm any of his family.  It also doesn't really address the true source of the enmity between Cat and Jon.  

Cat's real fear of Jon lies in the threat that Jon poses to her children and future grandchildren's inheritance.  Despite the fact that Jon is a bastard, and despite the fact that Cat evidently thinks Robb to be older than Jon, she seems to have a very real fear that Jon or his descendants might contest her family's right to Winterfell.

And Cat's conflict with Jon certainly lines up with Jon's own internal conflict, which is his desire for Winterfell vs his oath to the Wall and his own fondness for his step brothers and step sisters.  Which is why I keep coming back to the idea that the true source of Ned's inner conflict and shame concerning Jon, is more intimate, then a belief that Robert would ever harm Jon.

And Jon being Brandon's son would open up all sorts of internal conflict for Eddard.  It would also be the one secret that Eddard would especially want to keep from Cat.  Because it would only add to Cat's enmity over Jon regarding the danger he posed to her children's rights to Winterfell, and because of the fact that Brandon was Cat's first true love.  And the one she was meant to marry.

Early on there was a tease that the memory of Brandon was something that always came between the two:

So if Lyanna was indeed Jon's mother, and if Brandon was Jon's father than it's the shadow of Brandon and Lyanna that lay between Cat and Ned.  And you could further argue that the shadow of Brandon and Lyanna is personified in Jon.  Jon being the source of conflict between Ned and Cat.

You make some great points. It also sounds like Brandon and Lyanna spent a lot of time together (the pair of centaurs) and Ned wouldn't necessarily have known about it since he was away in the Vale. There is also the fact that when Rhaegar crowns Lyanna it's Brandon who is extremely upset, not Robert, and it's Brandon who runs straight to KL when she disappears...

Let's not forget that in the original synopsis George was going to have Arya hooking up with Jon Snow, so Stark-cest is not off limits in this story. 

This would, of course, lead to the question of where Lyanna was hiding all this time and why. There are also some potential timeline issues which I think is why this isn't a more prevalent theory, as otherwise it fits better than most. 

On 6/16/2021 at 1:28 PM, Melifeather said:

Alfie Allen claims George told him who Jon's parents were and he said:

Maybe the reporter mistook Alfie Allen and didn't realize that Alfie was quoting GRRM when he said, "I can't say who, but I can tell you that it involves a bit of a Luke Skywalker situation."

Well, the people that Luke thought were his parents were actually his aunt and uncle, but when (I'm guessing) GRRM said it was "a bit of a Luke Skywalker situation", that he didn't mean the comparison was exactly like it - just "a bit", which could simply be the mystery of his mother. Jon asked Ned who his mother was and obviously the answer wasn’t as simple as just telling him who Wylla is. Since Ned is dead, I think Jon will actually get to meet his living mother and SHE will be the one to tell Jon about herself just as Darth Vader did with Luke. The Luke Skywalker moment will be, "(Jon) I am your mother".

I'm sure everyone has their own interpretation but for me, the shock of the reveal in Star Wars wasn't that Luke's father was someone unexpected or that he was still alive, but that it was the leader of the enemy. The man he had been taught to fear all his life. Luke had been told that his father died in the war when in reality he changed sides. A deserter who then attempts to tempt Luke to also join the other side (of the Wall??).

There are not many characters in ASOIAF that this scenario applies to, even remotely. So the real question we need to ask ourselves is: why is Arthur Dayne posing as Mance Rayder?  

For real though, I'm sure you've all heard about how George does a 3-step approach to mysteries. First a small hint to careful readers: the Bael the Bard story, with Ygritte emphasizing that Starks have wildling blood as a result. The second hint is more obvious: Mance tells Jon he snuck into Winterfell when King Robert came (and noticed Jon, who of course he would pay special attention to). The third time it's spelled out: Mance + spearwives just walk right into Winterfell, he poses as a bard, and steals a Stark daughter. 

Unlike all the other contenders [except a Stark father of course], Mance looks super average, so he wouldn't be expected to pass on any extraordinary physical features. What makes him special is his swordsmanship and being a natural leader. Jon is arguably the best swordsman in the Watch and is Lord Commander at age 16, so he seems to have inherited those traits. 

Lyanna was fond of flowers, and had blue roses when she died. We know those only grow in the North, and in the winter/very early spring the only location would likely be the glass gardens. Where would Rhaegar have gotten them in Dorne in the middle of a war? Mance however has twice demonstrated that he can go to Winterfell anytime he wants and take whatever he wants. 

[Frey family reunion]

15 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

You make some great points. It also sounds like Brandon and Lyanna spent a lot of time together (the pair of centaurs) and Ned wouldn't necessarily have known about it since he was away in the Vale. There is also the fact that when Rhaegar crowns Lyanna it's Brandon who is extremely upset, not Robert, and it's Brandon who runs straight to KL when she disappears...

Let's not forget that in the original synopsis George was going to have Arya hooking up with Jon Snow, so Stark-cest is not off limits in this story. 

This would, of course, lead to the question of where Lyanna was hiding all this time and why. There are also some potential timeline issues which I think is why this isn't a more prevalent theory, as otherwise it fits better than most. 

The biggest problem people seem to have is letting go of the idea of Lyanna giving birth to Jon in the tower of joy and around the time of the battle of the tower of joy.  Certainly if that’s the case then Brandon can’t be the father.

I’m a bit suspicious though that this is what happened.

If Brandon’s the father, then my guess is that Jon was born sometime before the Battle of the Trident, perhaps as GRRM indicated around the time that Dany was conceived.  Furthermore, I doubt that Rhaegar brought a pregnant Lyanna to a flimsy watchtower in Prince’s Pass easily accessible to armies both north and south.

If Lyanna was in Dorne (and I think per the appendix she was) then she was probably brought to Starfall, a castle in an island surrounded by mountains nearest to an ocean not readily accessible to ships coming from White Harbor, Gulltown, or Storm’s End.  Also a castle who’s family counts as their favorite son, the best friend and closest confidant of Rhaegar.  And perhaps that’s where Lyanna stayed and died.  

What I think may have occurred is that Lyanna’s child may have been brought to the tower of joy.  And it was Lyanna’s child (and perhaps additionally Ashara’s child) that Eddard rode with his small group of companions to rescue.  I think the reason that Eddard’s group was so small and composed of only people that Eddard could implicitly trust, is that Eddard didn’t want Robert (or anyone else) to know about Lyanna’s child.  

This is also the reason that I think Eddard returned to Starfall with a child (or perhaps children) in tow.  To return the child to his sister Lyanna who remained in Starfall.  I think the return of Dawn was a cover story.  The only reason that Eddard would make such an arduous journey through potential enemy territory with an infant is if he wanted to bring the infant straight to Starfall.  Otherwise it would have made more sense for Eddard to have immediately traveled to a safer territory more directly, and then he could have made arrangements to have returned Dawn to House Dayne later.  That story about returning Dawn never made a lot of sense to me.  Returning a child to his mother makes a bit more sense.

Now I’m certainly not absolutely convinced of Brandon being the father.  I think as of now Rhaegar’s at least the safer bet.  It’s certainly the scenario that GRRM is subtly leading his readers to conclude.  My only question is does GRRM want us to come to the correct conclusion?  If he doesn’t, then the only possibility in my mind, that makes sense with Jon’s story arc, and would be a reason that Eddard would keep Jon’s parentage a secret from everyone, especially Jon, and especially Cat, is if Brandon was Jon’s father.

And based on the fact that GRRM has continued to make Jon’s internal conflict about Winterfell, makes me think that Eddard’s secret may be more intimate and tied to Winterfell, as opposed toJon being a secret Targaryen who has some half baked claim to the Iron Throne.

[MaesterSam]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The biggest problem people seem to have is letting go of the idea of Lyanna giving birth to Jon in the tower of joy and around the time of the battle of the tower of joy.  Certainly if that’s the case then Brandon can’t be the father.

I’m a bit suspicious though that this is what happened.

If Brandon’s the father, then my guess is that Jon was born sometime before the Battle of the Trident, perhaps as GRRM indicated around the time that Dany was conceived.  Furthermore, I doubt that Rhaegar brought a pregnant Lyanna to a flimsy watchtower in Prince’s Pass easily accessible to armies both north and south.

If Lyanna was in Dorne (and I think per the appendix she was) then she was probably brought to Starfall, a castle in an island surrounded by mountains nearest to an ocean not readily accessible to ships coming from White Harbor, Gulltown, or Storm’s End.  Also a castle who’s family counts as their favorite son, the best friend and closest confidant of Rhaegar.  And perhaps that’s where Lyanna stayed and died.  

What I think may have occurred is that Lyanna’s child may have been brought to the tower of joy.  And it was Lyanna’s child (and perhaps additionally Ashara’s child) that Eddard rode with his small group of companions to rescue.  I think the reason that Eddard’s group was so small and composed of only people that Eddard could implicitly trust, is that Eddard didn’t want Robert (or anyone else) to know about Lyanna’s child.  

This is also the reason that I think Eddard returned to Starfall with a child (or perhaps children) in tow.  To return the child to his sister Lyanna who remained in Starfall.  I think the return of Dawn was a cover story.  The only reason that Eddard would make such an arduous journey through potential enemy territory with an infant is if he wanted to bring the infant straight to Starfall.  Otherwise it would have made more sense for Eddard to have immediately traveled to a safer territory more directly, and then he could have made arrangements to have returned Dawn to House Dayne later.  That story about returning Dawn never made a lot of sense to me.  Returning a child to his mother makes a bit more sense.

Now I’m certainly not absolutely convinced of Brandon being the father.  I think as of now Rhaegar’s at least the safer bet.  It’s certainly the scenario that GRRM is subtly leading his readers to conclude.  My only question is does GRRM want us to come to the correct conclusion?  If he doesn’t, then the only possibility in my mind, that makes sense with Jon’s story arc, and would be a reason that Eddard would keep Jon’s parentage a secret from everyone, especially Jon, and especially Cat, is if Brandon was Jon’s father.

And based on the fact that GRRM has continued to make Jon’s internal conflict about Winterfell, makes me think that Eddard’s secret may be more intimate and tied to Winterfell, as opposed toJon being a secret Targaryen who has some half baked claim to the Iron Throne.

I agree that Lyanna most likely did not give birth or die at the TOJ. But it seems she definitely died after the sack of King's Landing, based on this passage from AGOT: 

Quote

Ned did not feign surprise; Robert’s hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar’s wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, “I see no babes. Only dragonspawn.” Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna’s death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

I used to really like the idea that Lyanna died earlier in the war, especially since we are also told that Robert avenged her at the Trident. But if Ned and Robert fought the day of the sack, and later reconciled over her passing, that doesn't leave much room for her to have died before then. We could of course try to reinterpret "bed of blood" to mean something other than her dying in childbirth but that seems like a stretch. In theory she also could have had more than one child, with the first (Brandon's) born first and someone else then getting her pregnant and her dying during this second delivery... but again there is really no evidence for this. So given that there were surely more than 9 months between her abduction (the latest possible moment she could have conceived if Brandon was the father) and the sack of King's Landing, this seems to rule out Brandon (or Ned, for that matter) as the father. 

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

I agree that Lyanna most likely did not give birth or die at the TOJ. But it seems she definitely died after the sack of King's Landing, based on this passage from AGOT: 

I used to really like the idea that Lyanna died earlier in the war, especially since we are also told that Robert avenged her at the Trident. But if Ned and Robert fought the day of the sack, and later reconciled over her passing, that doesn't leave much room for her to have died before then. We could of course try to reinterpret "bed of blood" to mean something other than her dying in childbirth but that seems like a stretch. In theory she also could have had more than one child, with the first (Brandon's) born first and someone else then getting her pregnant and her dying during this second delivery... but again there is really no evidence for this. So given that there were surely more than 9 months between her abduction (the latest possible moment she could have conceived if Brandon was the father) and the sack of King's Landing, this seems to rule out Brandon (or Ned, for that matter) as the father. 

Yes I agree Lyanna died sometime after the Sack of King’s Landing.  The question in my mind is just how long after?  It has to be within a year of Ned’s marriage to Cat, but since we don’t really know the time period between his marriage and the Sack of King’s Landing, it’s hard to narrow it down too much.

But like I stated above, if you can only interpret Lyanna dying in her bed of blood to mean she died during childbirth, specifically birthing Jon, then disregard the theory.

It’s certainly the scenario that GRRM is subtly leading the reader towards.  But I would caution you a bit on that.  Just look at Dany’s last chapter in ADWD.  Dany wasn’t about to give birth but if she had the benefit of a bed, she would certainly have been lying in a bed of blood.  

[alienarea]

Just a long shot, I haven't checked whether it fits with timelines:

Maybe Lyanna was pregnant by Rhaegar and she died in a bed of blood with a stillborn that looked like Rhaego, scales and all. "Promise me, Ned."

And Jon's mother could maybe be Lady Barbary? She allegedly gave her maidenhead to Brandon before he was going to marry Catelyn, then Ned was supposed to marry Lady Barbary. They could have had sex before Brandon storms for KL. After the war, Ned picks up Jon from Lady Barbary, and brings him to Winterfell before Catelyn arrives. 

[Black Crow]

Some interesting thoughts here and, present company excepted, I think too much of the argument is driven by the need to support entrenched preconceptions rather than looking at the evidence clearly and impartially.

First the timing. The rencounter at the tower, clearly took place after the sack of King's Landing and was the culmination of Lord Eddard's subsequent mopping-up campaign in the south - indeed the raising of the siege of Storm's End forms part of the discussion with the three ronin.

Then the rencounter itself. At Storm's End, Lord Eddard had an army. At the tower he had just a few picked companions [albeit there may also have been the usual retinue of cooks, bottle-washers, grooms and the like, traditionally ignored by history],not an army. The tower itself is significant in its insignificance. It's just an old watchtower overlooking one of two principal roads into Dorne. It's not a secret hideaway... but it is a suitable rendezvous landmark for a rencounter.

That rencounter itself and the dialogue when they meet is as formal as you're ever likely to find outside The Three Musketeers, its not a daring/desperate rescue mission and Lyanna is never mentioned.

There's no reason to suppose that the discovery of Lyanna doesn't follow, but equally there's no reason - and remember GRRM described Lord Eddard's recollection as a fever dream and not literal - to suppose it was five minutes later, rather than five days later, or for that matter that it necessarily took place in the watchtower, rather than at Ser Arthur Dayne's house, Starfall. 

At the end of the day, however, what we can be reasonably sure of is that the timing of Jon's birth/Lyanna's death came too late to be attributed to Brandon or even to Benjen. Ser Arthur Dayne remains a possibility, but in truth there's no evidence to support him beyond Lord Eddard's regard. Rhaegar remains the likeliest candidate, perhaps notwithstanding Paris' "George doesn't do the obvious", but with the very strong caveat that the obvious corollary that Jon is the Targaryen heir is a red herring and that it is far more significant that he is Lyanna's bastard son and belongs to Winterfell. After all, leaving aside old allegiances, the Starks are far a far older and more significant presence in Westeros than the parvenu Targaryens

[Tucu]

My favourite crackpot theory regarding the encounter at the ToJ is that it was the end of Ned's killing spree to fullfill a promise to Lyanna; either to complete her own kill-list or to silence everyone that knew about her activities during the rebellion.

This image of Lyanna weeping blood links her to the Erinyes (the Furies), chthonic deities of vengeance and retribution in Greek mythology.

Quote

"Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

Quote

A formulaic oath in the Iliad invokes them as "the Erinyes, that under earth take vengeance on men, whosoever hath sworn a false oath"

 

[LynnS]

39 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Some interesting thoughts here and, present company excepted, I think too much of the argument is driven by the need to support entrenched preconceptions rather than looking at the evidence clearly and impartially.

There is almost nothing to go on other than how one layers meaning onto the events at the tower of joy and Robert's assertion that she was kidnapped and raped.  I find it incredulous that Ned wouldn't have taken matters into his own hands and sent Lyanna into hiding himself with only Howland in the know.  He was present at her death and presumably Jon's birth was the cause.  She's buried at Winterfell, so he sent her bones back home or took them himself.  But I still don't know the timeline and don't have any real proof that the timeline is making the correct assumptions.  Edric Dayne confirms the fact that Jon was at Starfall and again, I don't know if he was born there or sent there by Ned after Lyanna's death.

I still think the Quiet Isle where the brothers take a vow of silence is a likely hiding place and we know that noble women have stayed there in the past.  Theon's dream of Lyanna wearing a white gown spattered with gore; could mean she died disguised as a septa.  I do find it consistent that Ned would lie to Robert about the circumstances of Lyanna's death after the fact.

 

[LynnS]

9 minutes ago, Tucu said:

This image of Lyanna weeping blood links her to the Erinyes (the Furies), chthonic deities of vengeance and retribution in Greek mythology.

I think it also links her to the old gods/weirwood who also weep tears of blood.

[Tucu]

15 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I think it also links her to the old gods/weirwood who also weep tears of blood.

Yes, the hateful trees as described in Asha's chapters:

Quote

The trees hate us all, deep in their wooden hearts

I really hope that the encounter at the ToJ is more than just a knight rescuing a princess from the tower

[LynnS]

45 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Yes, the hateful trees as described in Asha's chapters:

I really hope that the encounter at the ToJ is more than just a knight rescuing a princess from the tower

There is the odd tale of the fisherman's daughter which places Ned in the general vicinity of the Quiet Isle at the beginning of Robert's Rebellion.  On the surface, he is using the cover of a storm to move incognito on his way through the Vale, on his way back to the North via the Fingers and Three Sisters.  I wonder what else he was doing in the area..

[MaesterSam]

19 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s certainly the scenario that GRRM is subtly leading the reader towards.  But I would caution you a bit on that.  Just look at Dany’s last chapter in ADWD.  Dany wasn’t about to give birth but if she had the benefit of a bed, she would certainly have been lying in a bed of blood.  

This is a fair point and I suppose it's possible. Dany of course did not die and women generally don't die of their periods, but certainly she could have been injured for example. There is also the assertion by Robert that Rhaegar raped Lyanna "hundreds of times" which is a strange assumption given what we know about Rhaegar. Sure, if a man kidnaps a woman that's usually what he wants, but it does make me wonder what Ned told Robert regarding her cause of death. 

6 hours ago, alienarea said:

And Jon's mother could maybe be Lady Barbary? She allegedly gave her maidenhead to Brandon before he was going to marry Catelyn, then Ned was supposed to marry Lady Barbary. They could have had sex before Brandon storms for KL. After the war, Ned picks up Jon from Lady Barbary, and brings him to Winterfell before Catelyn arrives. 

I suppose it's possible, but it doesn't explain the need for secrecy. Yes, Cat would see Jon as more of a threat but at the same time it would have been good for their marriage if she knew Ned was not the father. I don't think Ned feared that Cat would harm Jon; when he thinks about her choosing between him vs her own children while talking to Cersei, it seems to me that he is considering this for the first time. 

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Then the rencounter itself. At Storm's End, Lord Eddard had an army. At the tower he had just a few picked companions [albeit there may also have been the usual retinue of cooks, bottle-washers, grooms and the like, traditionally ignored by history],not an army. The tower itself is significant in its insignificance. It's just an old watchtower overlooking one of two principal roads into Dorne. It's not a secret hideaway... but it is a suitable rendezvous landmark for a rencounter.

That rencounter itself and the dialogue when they meet is as formal as you're ever likely to find outside The Three Musketeers, its not a daring/desperate rescue mission and Lyanna is never mentioned.

I hadn't really considered this before, though I did wonder of course how the meeting came to be. It does sound as if this was a planned meeting at an agreed upon location. A location that makes no sense for hiding a pregnant woman, let alone a newborn. The kingsguard are sitting there, already wearing their armor, clearly expecting Ned & co. They talk only briefly, then the fight begins. A fight they all knew was coming. There is no back and forth, no negotiation. Almost as if they had agreed in advance to settle something by combat. Seven against three - very specific numbers, also presumably agreed upon beforehand. Ned gets more men because he's fighting the Realm's finest. If a duel was always the plan, this also explains Ser Arthur's strange line of "And now it begins." 

[MaesterSam]

8 hours ago, Black Crow said:

There's no reason to suppose that the discovery of Lyanna doesn't follow, but equally there's no reason - and remember GRRM described Lord Eddard's recollection as a fever dream and not literal - to suppose it was five minutes later, rather than five days later, or for that matter that it necessarily took place in the watchtower, rather than at Ser Arthur Dayne's house, Starfall. 

Looking at the map more closely and knowing that Ned would have traveled from the TOJ to Starfall, I wonder what might be the best way to get there. He could have gone by ship past Wyl, through the Sea of Dorne, through the Stepstones and all the way around Dorne. This seems impractical and unsafe, especially during wartime. The next option is to ride through the mountains, all the way through Dorne and then hope to find a ship on the southern coast. Also not ideal. The safest route would probably be to take a ship from Highgarden and down the West coast. Which then makes me wonder about the room that smelled of blood and roses... 

He would have also passed Oldtown along the way which is another option. Gerold Hightower was one of the three Rhaegar loyalist kingsguard and his family home would certainly be a very safe place to keep someone important. 

Starfall of course is another great option. Rhaegar supposedly was in Dorne for much of the Rebellion and this would be the logical place for him to be. It's also very safe, and Jon is linked to Wylla & Starfall very directly by Ned Dayne. It's not associated with roses but that's not to say they couldn't have found some. To me, the only thing speaking against it - and this is minor - is that a big deal is made about Ned traveling all the way to Starfall to return Dawn. If he in fact went there to get Lyanna, wouldn't this be known? He had men with him after all. And if he went to Starfall and there picked up Lyanna's body AND at the same time a baby, wouldn't that be suspicious? If however he found Lyanna at Highgarden, with the baby having been taken from her, he could promise her to get him back allowing her to die in peace. He sent Lyanna's bones back by ship, then went on to Starfall to collect the baby.

[MaesterSam]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

At the end of the day, however, what we can be reasonably sure of is that the timing of Jon's birth/Lyanna's death came too late to be attributed to Brandon or even to Benjen. Ser Arthur Dayne remains a possibility, but in truth there's no evidence to support him beyond Lord Eddard's regard.

I would add the regard that the Daynes apparently have for Ned. You don't normally name your heir after the man who killed your brother and knocked up your sister. 

In addition, there must surely be a reason we are never told what Ser Arthur looked like. This is clearly intentional, as virtually ALL other characters are described, even random side characters that only appear once for two paragraphs. To me this suggests he is either still alive (looking at you, Mance ) or that he has a child hiding somewhere in the story. Or both. 

Jon has no Targaryen features, in fact is said to be "dark" compared to Robb being "fair" even though Targaryens are said to be pale. Unlike in the show he also isn't said to be particularly attractive, which otherwise could have been a nice subtle hint. He spends a lot of time thinking about honor and vows, and he chooses to join a celibate order (which he believes, at the time, to be honorable) at a young age. He also has a talent for leadership and negotiation, as evidenced by being elected LC and brokering the peace with the wildlings. He never once dreams of dragons and shows no affinity for fire, nor does he show any signs of madness. I'd say Cersei is a better fit for the third head of the dragon, especially after the Forsaken chapter where Aeron appears to see Euron and a fire woman laughing at dwarves with dragons flying overhead.

[Matthew.]

6 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Ser Arthur Dayne remains a possibility, but in truth there's no evidence to support him beyond Lord Eddard's regard.

If anything, I find Eddard's regard to be the biggest knock against the idea of Arthur being Jon's father. For example, on an emotional level, Eddard would have some reason to sympathize with Jaime's actions--he killed the king that tortured Eddard's brother and father, and may have played some role in preventing more protracted sieges and combat. Nonetheless, Eddard despises Jaime for the ways in which he dishonored his oaths.

Implicit in the suggestion that Arthur fathered Jon is the idea that Arthur broke his oaths just enough to father a child with a woman that was betrothed to Eddard's friend (and may have been a prisoner at the time the relationship was consummated), yet honored his oaths enough to kill several of Eddard's friends, and keep Lyanna away from her family.

IMO, that just doesn't sound like a recipe for respect from Eddard, and it seems more likely that Arthur was an honorable foe who never broke his vows--not for love, or anything else.

[alienarea]

The same old arguments again. Why not.

If Lyanna died before the ToJ, it doesn't make sense that ToJ was a planned duel, because Ned could have died being unable to keep his promise to Lyanna. The risk is too high.

On the other hand, if Lyanna's fate was still unclear or Ned knew where she were, he would not enter the duel either.

In my understanding this leaves three options:

1. The ToJ is but a fever dream and never happened like this.

2. It happened before Ned knew Lyanna was still alive.

3. GRRM is a sloppy writer.

[MaesterSam]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

The same old arguments again. Why not.

If Lyanna died before the ToJ, it doesn't make sense that ToJ was a planned duel, because Ned could have died being unable to keep his promise to Lyanna. The risk is too high.

On the other hand, if Lyanna's fate was still unclear or Ned knew where she were, he would not enter the duel either.

In my understanding this leaves three options:

1. The ToJ is but a fever dream and never happened like this.

2. It happened before Ned knew Lyanna was still alive.

3. GRRM is a sloppy writer.

I think this is why people tend to assume Lyanna and/or the baby must have been in the tower. Otherwise the fight doesn't make much sense (at least with the information we have). 

I just reread it once again and both Ser Arthur and Ned are sad that this is happening. Neither wants this fight, yet both seem to feel there is no way around it. Ned brought his friends, not necessarily his best fighters. Maybe he asked for volunteers among his men? Why else would Howland Reed have been there?

It's also interesting how Hightower says "the kingsguard do not run", followed up by Ser Arthur "Then or now." This very much implies that they were not fleeing somewhere with Lyanna and/or the baby. In which case it makes no sense for Lyanna and/or the baby to be in the tower since this is not an appropriate place for giving birth.

The way Ned talks to them, (paraphrasing)"I looked for you at the Trident", "I expected you in King's Landing", "I was sure you would be at Storm's End", "I thought you might be with Viserys" makes it seem like he doesn't understand why they are where they are, which suggests he does not know about any baby at this point in the story. After all, if he knew they were guarding Rhaegar's heir he wouldn't be surprised by their actions.

I will also point out that Ned left King's Landing after his fight with Robert to fight the last battles of the war in the south, according to his own memories. (What battles??) Not to look for Lyanna. So after lifting the siege at Storm's End he would presumably have headed to Dorne to make them swear fealty to Robert. Wouldn't he have taken the army along? It seems risky to take just 6 men into a kingdom that has not yet surrendered. So he was heading toward the mountains with an army, then received a message from the kingsguard inviting him and 6 friends to a duel? In exchange for what? WHAT ARE WE MISSING????

Lastly, when Ned wakes up he reflects that the dream had left him "as weak as a kitten". This was clearly a very, very traumatic event for Ned. Something happened, something more than Howland stabbing Ser Arthur in the back (which I don't think is what happened anyway) or Lyanna dying. Women die in childbirth all the time, it doesn't make sense that a hardened warrior like Ned would have nightmares about it 15 years later. He pulled down the tower's bloody stones to make cairns. So at some point the fighting moved into the tower? Because one woman giving birth (in a bed, not on the floor) would not produce that much blood. Or maybe something else had happened in the tower that was so terrible it gives the lord of Winterfell nightmares that make him weak as a kitten. 

[Frey family reunion]

7 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

This is a fair point and I suppose it's possible. Dany of course did not die and women generally don't die of their periods, but certainly she could have been injured for example. There is also the assertion by Robert that Rhaegar raped Lyanna "hundreds of times" which is a strange assumption given what we know about Rhaegar. Sure, if a man kidnaps a woman that's usually what he wants, but it does make me wonder what Ned told Robert regarding her cause of death. 

From what I gather, Dany's bleeding was more significant than a menstrual cycle.  I think the implication is she was pregnant but didn't realize it, and the berries and the water she drank caused a miscarriage.

Which is why I brought this example up.  The idea of a "bed of blood" or "bloody bed" doesn't just imply child birth.  In fact in this world, it might be almost as common that it corresponds with a child's death.  And sometimes the mother's as well.  

One of the other images we get of blood and bed is found with Lysa Tully when she was forced into an abortion.

[alienarea]

7 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

Or maybe something else had happened in the tower that was so terrible it gives the lord of Winterfell nightmares that make him weak as a kitten. 

Like Lyanna birthing a living dragon who killed the kingsguard and most of Ned's men until Howlan Reed killed it with dragonglass?

Sure. 

It's just a cool scene that doesn't fit into the overall narrative very well.

[Black Crow]

9 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

It's also interesting how Hightower says "the kingsguard do not run", followed up by Ser Arthur "Then or now." This very much implies that they were not fleeing somewhere with Lyanna and/or the baby. In which case it makes no sense for Lyanna and/or the baby to be in the tower since this is not an appropriate place for giving birth.

The way Ned talks to them, (paraphrasing)"I looked for you at the Trident", "I expected you in King's Landing", "I was sure you would be at Storm's End", "I thought you might be with Viserys" makes it seem like he doesn't understand why they are where they are, which suggests he does not know about any baby at this point in the story. After all, if he knew they were guarding Rhaegar's heir he wouldn't be surprised by their actions.

I will also point out that Ned left King's Landing after his fight with Robert to fight the last battles of the war in the south, according to his own memories. (What battles??) Not to look for Lyanna. So after lifting the siege at Storm's End he would presumably have headed to Dorne to make them swear fealty to Robert. Wouldn't he have taken the army along? It seems risky to take just 6 men into a kingdom that has not yet surrendered. So he was heading toward the mountains with an army, then received a message from the kingsguard inviting him and 6 friends to a duel? In exchange for what? WHAT ARE WE MISSING????

That's why I refer to them as three Ronin. They were not at the Trident. They were not at King's Landing. By obeying orders they failed in their primary duty to protect their King. All that remains for them is to slay the usurper and his dogs or die in the attempt