US Politics: Biden Hood - Prince of Plebs

[argonak]

2 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Agreed that there’s no guarantee they’ll stay blue.  Plus if they were willing to move to avoid higher taxes, then they’re not the staunchest blue in the first place.  But liberal, secular types are not likely to become gun-toting, racist fundamentalists overnight.  If the GOP is hell-bent on Trumpism then I doubt they’ll be attracting many transplants from blue states.

I've not met many people (other than the retired) who will move to avoid taxes.  At least in the circles I have been in, people live where their work is, and where they can afford housing.

I do think the extreme cost of housing is pushing people to look for jobs in other regions, which is what is driving most of the migration.  We absolutely need to do something to address this.  I think the answer is to streamline development processes so builders can make our urban areas better.  We also should be addressing the schools of urban areas, to ensure that they are of high quality to attract residents.  

[DMC]

3 hours ago, argonak said:

That assumes that those voters will stay progressive, and not be impacted by the regional culture influencers that are pushing people in those regions to vote conservatively.  I don't think that's a guarantee.  I think a large proportion of people are heavily influenced by aggregate views their neighbors, friends, and family.

People are generally fully politically socialized by the time they hit ~ thirty.  The overwhelming majority have stabilized vote preferences/party ID by then.  I do vaguely remember reading a fun study though on "transients," or their term for people that moved, that found they tended to be more moderate/independent as well were less likely to vote (which makes sense in that those are all correlated).  Then again, that study had to be at least from ten years ago, so who knows if it still applies.

Regardless, the real question is who are these people moving from blue states to red states.  Obviously, they may not necessarily have the same demographic and partisan makeup as the aggregate of the state they're moving from.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

56 minutes ago, DMC said:

People are generally fully politically socialized by the time they hit ~ thirty.  The overwhelming majority have stabilized vote preferences/party ID by then.  I do vaguely remember reading a fun study though on "transients," or their term for people that moved, that found they tended to be more moderate/independent as well were less likely to vote (which makes sense in that those are all correlated).  Then again, that study had to be at least from ten years ago, so who knows if it still applies.

This isn't about you rationalizing your Biden tattoo, which you most definately do not second guess now, is it?

[DMC]

18 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

This isn't about you rationalizing your Biden tattoo, which you most definately do not second guess now, is it?

A Biden ass tattoo needs no rationalization or explanation.  Its greatness is self-evident.

[A True Kaniggit]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

A Biden ass tattoo needs no rationalization or explanation.  Its greatness is self-evident.

So is it a tattoo of Biden on the ass?

Or a tattoo of Biden’s ass?

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

So is it a tattoo of Biden on the ass?

Or a tattoo of Biden’s ass?

You'll just have to live with the mystery.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

We can always ask Ty. We have told the two of you so many times to get a room, he must know  the answer to that.

I am not speculating on the effects the tat might have had on him. But I assume, you want to be like a benign Roger Stone in your future political career. With Stone pricing in the possibilities of going to jail in the process eventually, Tricky Dicky was probably there as an insurance policy, I just assume Joe stnading guard over your cheeks serves a similar purpose.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

14 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

So is it a tattoo of Biden on the ass?

Or a tattoo of Biden’s ass?

I’ve heard mystical tales of a tri-ass-ic tattoo, Biden bare-assed, riding the D donkey (#2), on someone’s ass.  Could also havr completed the quadr-ass-ic equation, with Trump’s ass-face being stepped on, but why cut off your ass to spite your politics.

[Altherion]

6 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

This is not what we are hearing from our contacts on the hill.  What we are hearing will likely happen is that 25% corporate rate, plus some of the international proposals will go through on the corporate side, and that some of the individual stuff will go through as well.  People think the cap gains rate will probably go to 28% (not 39.6%), and it is unclear whether top income rates will actually go up (House members from high tax states are threatening to vote against unless the SALT deduction comes back, which is problematic for other reasons).  The estate tax stuff is probably DOA, which is a pity.

That is really interesting. If I remember correctly, the corporate tax rate was 35% before 2018 and the campaign promise was to bring it back to 28%. If it really does settle at 25%, it will mean a net decrease of 10%. Do you know if the 28% capital gains rate includes the 3.8% from the net investment tax or if the combined rate would be 31.8%?

[Mlle. Zabzie]

35 minutes ago, Altherion said:

That is really interesting. If I remember correctly, the corporate tax rate was 35% before 2018 and the campaign promise was to bring it back to 28%. If it really does settle at 25%, it will mean a net decrease of 10%. Do you know if the 28% capital gains rate includes the 3.8% from the net investment tax or if the combined rate would be 31.8%?

I believe, though I am not sure, the latter.  To be clear, my understanding is that everything is still on the table, including the binder full of pay-for measures that are dreamed up in staffer downtime and ready to insert into bills. I have no idea what’s in that black hole right now.  

Carried interest might be done for this time.  It’s not a huge revenue raiser (at all), but it is very unpopular, and will affect a very limited number of people.

[Iskaral Pust]

2 hours ago, argonak said:

I've not met many people (other than the retired) who will move to avoid taxes.  At least in the circles I have been in, people live where their work is, and where they can afford housing.

I do think the extreme cost of housing is pushing people to look for jobs in other regions, which is what is driving most of the migration.  We absolutely need to do something to address this.  I think the answer is to streamline development processes so builders can make our urban areas better.  We also should be addressing the schools of urban areas, to ensure that they are of high quality to attract residents.  

Post-COVID remote working is boosting that willingness to relocate to sunnier, tax-friendlier locations.  It’s not just the Boomers retiring, it’s also knowledge workers — who as a group are a very large share of the tax base.  Florida has seen a huge influx from the NY area in the past year.  Some of them will stay there.  Also some smaller investment firms were already uprooting and moving south long before COVID.  It’s harder to coordinate for large firms, but smaller firms have started already.

Cost of housing is a very large problem, largely driven by NIMBYist land use regs designed to protect existing home values, and also (in California at least) by property tax laws that strongly incentivize people to retain their house and never sell.  But post-COVID remote working may reduce the density of urban job markets, which could help level out cost of living — we’re already seeing this with NYC rents dropping steeply while exurb house prices have boomed.

[Iskaral Pust]

37 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I believe, though I am not sure, the latter.  To be clear, my understanding is that everything is still on the table, including the binder full of pay-for measures that are dreamed up in staffer downtime and ready to insert into bills. I have no idea what’s in that black hole right now.  

Carried interest might be done for this time.  It’s not a huge revenue raiser (at all), but it is very unpopular, and will affect a very limited number of people.

That looks even deader than Google and Facebook washing most of their profits through Ireland.  It’s overdue for all them.

[Zorral]

To add anecdotal only information to this moving - remote work condition, my bro, engineering nabob aeronautical {ultimately he and the sector he's head of, keep the planes IN THE AIR), were the first to go remote in their state and industry.  

He says it's becoming ever more difficult to get anything done, anything resolved, with most of the staff, from admin, to engineering, to tech, to heads of manufacturing -- on and on.  He says if employees don't come back to the offices on the floors, the admin offices, everywhere, soon, he's quitting.  Because they cannot do what they need to do remotely.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

We can always ask Ty. We have told the two of you so many times to get a room, he must know  the answer to that.

I am not speculating on the effects the tat might have had on him. But I assume, you want to be like a benign Roger Stone in your future political career. With Stone pricing in the possibilities of going to jail in the process eventually, Tricky Dicky was probably there as an insurance policy, I just assume Joe stnading guard over your cheeks serves a similar purpose.

It's a tattoo of Biden mooning someone on his ass. The meta touch was to put a tattoo of DMC mooning someone on Biden's ass. If you look closely enough it probably turns into a Russian nesting doll situation. 

What I don't understand is why he decided to wax his ass before getting the tattoo. Surely just shaving it would have been good enough?

[Wilbur]

The internecine Republican warfare between the Cult of Trump Senate Republicans with their stooges the Cyber Ninjas and the Republicans running Maricopa County hotted up today.

Maricopa County held a press conference with the County Board of Supervisors, County Sheriff, Recorder, Treasurer and Assessor, all of whom except the Sheriff are Republicans, and blasted the State Senate's audit.

They proceeded to list all of the ways that Cyber Ninjas don't understand how an election and the ballot process works, and all of the ways in which the Cyber Ninjas don't appear to understand how IT infrastructure works, in great detail.  They also highlighted a long list of audit process failures and communication control failures by Cyber Ninjas.  It was brutal in exposing Cyber Ninjas as feckless idiots who can't plan, execute, or control an audit, and who are, rather than subject matter experts, instead subject matter ignorant.

The finished off by reading aloud a letter they had sent to the State Senate, including this gem.  “You have rented out the once good name of the Arizona State Senate to grifters and con-artists, who are fundraising hard-earned money from our fellow citizens even as your contractors parade around the Coliseum, hunting for bamboo and something they call ‘kinematic artifacts’ while shining purple lights for effect.”

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2021/05/17/maricopa-county-makes-senate-president-fool-over-arizona-election-audit/5138310001/

So State Senate President Karen Fann's press conference response tomorrow ought to be interesting.

[Fragile Bird]

The NYT is reporting that the DoJ under Trump used a Grand Jury subpoena to try to find out the identity of a Twitter account that mocked Devin Nunes, “Devin Nunes’ alt-mom”.

What a great use of the power of the DoJ! Lol!

eta: done by Barr in the last couple of weeks before he resigned.

[Fragile Bird]

Geez, a Colorado guy named Patrick Montgomery, who was charged with offenses committed on Jan. 6 but released on bail with conditions, was arrested after shooting a mountain lion. With a handgun. A condition of his release was that he not possess a weapon.

Montgomery is a hunting guide. It’s the second time he’s done something illegal since Jan. 6: he used a slingshot to knock a bobcat out of a tree so his dogs could kill it.

Wtf is it with these guys? He kills a mountain lion and a bobcat? Are these not protected species? Was hunting humans on Jan. 6 his next-level thrill?

eta: he wasn’t supposed to own a handgun because of a previous felony robbery conviction in Colorado. Is he in jail? No, he’s under house arrest with gps monitoring.

[Martell Spy]

Val Demings to run for Senate against Rubio
The Orlando Democrat was on Joe Biden’s shortlist as a possible running mate in 2020.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/18/demings-running-for-senate-rubio-489137

 

Quote

 

ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida Rep. Val Demings is planning to run for the U.S. Senate, rather than governor, providing Democrats with a big-name candidate to take on Republican Sen. Marco Rubio next year.

For months, Demings mulled which statewide office to pursue, but decided she could do the most good by taking on the two-term senator, according to several Democrats familiar with her thinking.

“I would’ve supported her running for governor, but this is the right fit for her and for us,” said Alex Sink, a former Florida chief financial officer who narrowly lost her 2010 bid for governor against Rick Scott, who is now a senator.

“She’s going to draw a contrast between who she is and how she represents Florida vs. Marco Rubio, who a lot of people where I live never see him.”

Sink said she was recently on a Zoom call with Demings and activists with Ruth’s List, the Florida-based organization dedicated to electing women who support abortion rights, and it was clear that she and national Democrats felt she would represent the party’s best chance to put Republicans on defense as they try to take back the U.S. Senate.

Demings, 64, was first elected to the House in 2016 from Orlando and held the distinction of being the city’s first Black woman police chief. She rose to national prominence as the only non-lawyer on the first House impeachment committee to charge President Donald Trump with wrongdoing. As a Black woman and law enforcement officer, her background made her uniquely situated to be a national Democratic spokesperson for policing and race issues — it helped catapult her to President Joe Biden’s shortlist as a possible running mate in 2020.

 

 

[Wilbur]

10 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

The NYT is reporting that the DoJ under Trump used a Grand Jury subpoena to try to find out the identity of a Twitter account that mocked Devin Nunes, “Devin Nunes’ alt-mom”.

What a great use of the power of the DoJ! Lol!

eta: done by Barr in the last couple of weeks before he resigned.

The Trump administration engaged in so many instances of frankly egregious abuses of power that we all became inured to the crazy.

In almost any administration prior to this, surely this sort of thing would have been an impeachable offense, but for Trump it was just Tuesday.

[HoodedCrow]

How is running a ridiculous recount not an attempt to steal an election well after the fact? Then there is the vote suppression, but let’s start with the Citizens United...which looks like a tool to buy elections with dark money.