NFL 2021 - Draft Day or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Pick

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

And the awkward hugs. Continue. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

I’m cool with Jones... if we had stayed at 12.  Not cool with trading up to do it.

That would make the pick easier to swallow, but it's still kind of high for me. I view Lawrence as the clear top pick, Fields as a top 5 pick, Wilson as a fringe top 10 pick, Lance as a mid 20's pick and Jones as a late first to mid second round kind of guy, but that is in part because he got to play with so much talent around him. I'd value him a lot more if he had a similar statistical season while playing at a smaller SEC school.

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I think this is irrelevant to tipping your hand on who you're gonna pick.  Who cares what the fans think?  I'd be more concerned with what the Panthers, Broncos, Pats, etc. think.  There's no reason to give any of them the advantage of knowing what you think.

I only say you should consider the fans because I keep hearing Niners fans being frustrated about the uncertainty. Sure that's not a top priority for a team, but I also don't think it should matter too much what other teams are doing because there's no evidence the Jets or Jags are trading out of their picks, so you're getting the third pick regardless. Saying here's our top three QBs and we expect two to be drafted before us doesn't do much besides possibly increasing what Atlanta  and Cincy could get for their picks, but it would probably be rather marginal. 

Really more than anything it feels like they're being deceptive just for the sake of being deceptive because that's what NFL teams do. 

40 minutes ago, briantw said:

Wilson screams bust to me.  He had an amazing season playing against dog shit competition behind an NFL caliber offensive line.  We've never seen him play well against a top defense.  He's much like Drew Lock in that respect.  Both guys lit up shit teams in college and played like garbage against the good ones. 

Wilson is the guy I know the least about. Almost everyone says he's a lock at two, but I've heard some draft scouts repeat exactly what you said. BYU's offense was significantly better than the defenses they were facing. More troubling, one guy said that Mac Jones is an iffy pick because he only makes a handful of special throws per game. In the next breath he said Wilson only made a few special throws during the entire season and that overall, as a college QB there's more good than bad, it's just that the good came recently which we know affects people perception of him.

Wilson to the Jets feels like a high bust risk, whereas I think there's a good chance of him being at least above average in San Fran.

[dbunting]

So did Rogers camp release that he doesn't want to return to Green Bay on draft day to force the issue? Apparently SF called GB this week to see about a trade and were turned away.

So, Rodgers and draft day drama continues!

[Rhom]

5 minutes ago, dbunting said:

So did Rogers camp release that he doesn't want to return to Green Bay on draft day to force the issue? Apparently SF called GB this week to see about a trade and were turned away.

So, Rodgers and draft day drama continues!

Give them the third pick and something else to sweeten the deal and lets go!

[Rhom]

47 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

 Jones as a late first to mid second round kind of guy, but that is in part because he got to play with so much talent around him. I'd value him a lot more if he had a similar statistical season while playing at a smaller SEC school.

He was originally signed with Kentucky before Alabama discovered him.  I just assumed he went to Bama to sit the bench and get some rings.  Behind Hurts, Tua, and then I assumed Tua's younger brother I just thought he'd never play.

Show's what I know.   

[dbunting]

21 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Give them the third pick and something else to sweeten the deal and lets go!

Supposedly that was already offered and GB said no. I wonder if these now being made public will change things?

[Maithanet]

Rodgers is worth SO MUCH more than the #3 pick.  Like, if SF called GB and offered #3 and Kittle and their 2nd rounder, I'd say...you need to sweeten the offer a bit more. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The pick also has less value to them because they have Love. They may have been more open to the package the Niners offered to trade up plus another first rounder or something of equal value.

Niners will probably have to make this a three team trade for it to work out.

[Maithanet]

Why are we specifically expecting the Niners to be the ones who get Rodgers?  If I were GB and I were stupid enough to be trading him, I would be targeting AFC teams.  New England, Tennessee, Vegas, Denver...

[ljkeane]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Why are we specifically expecting the Niners to be the ones who get Rodgers?  If I were GB and I were stupid enough to be trading him, I would be targeting AFC teams.  New England, Tennessee, Vegas, Denver...

If they have to trade him because he's refusing to come back isn't it where Rodgers wants to go that's the key factor though?

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, ljkeane said:

If they have to trade him because he's refusing to come back isn't it where Rodgers wants to go that's the key factor though?

It depends.  Rodgers doesn't have a no-trade clause (IIRC) so I don't think he would need to give specific approval.  Teams might be leery of selling the farm for Rodgers if his heart isn't really in it anymore (it's quite possible he finds being a Jeopardy host safer and less stressful), but I still think that the bidding would be fierce.  The list of teams that would suddenly be contenders if they signed Rodgers is long (at least half the league).  The list of teams that would be at least playoff contenders if they signed Rodgers includes every team in the league. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I only say you should consider the fans because I keep hearing Niners fans being frustrated about the uncertainty. Sure that's not a top priority for a team, but I also don't think it should matter too much what other teams are doing because there's no evidence the Jets or Jags are trading out of their picks, so you're getting the third pick regardless.

It matters because you're not just giving the Niners fans certainty - which doesn't matter at all - you're also giving the Panthers certainty, and the Broncos, and the Pats, and Bears.  Why give your opponents certainty for nothing?  It makes no sense.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

It matters because you're not just giving the Niners fans certainty - which doesn't matter at all - you're also giving the Panthers certainty, and the Broncos, and the Pats, and Bears.  Why give your opponents certainty for nothing?  It makes no sense.

There's no point in further beating this dead horse so I'll just say this. We don't actually know how announcing their preference will affect those other teams, and the certainty, or lack there of, probably doesn't play a huge role in what they're going to do. The Niners made the trade without knowing what the Jets were going to do, and at the same time they'd likely make the trade again knowing Wilson was for sure the Jets guy. So in the end it doesn't really matter. And on the fan base front, it does appear that Jets fans like knowing who they're getting. Knowing in advance will make fans do what they always do, talk themselves into the pick regardless if they believe it or not so they won't act all pissy on draft day.

There's one other upside to announcing who you like: you might fake out the Jets, the dumbest team in the NFL as we speak. Say the Niners preferred Wilson over Fields. If they came out and said, "We're draft a QB at three, which we expect to be the third QB taken and our current ranking is Lawrence, Fields and then Wilson." Who's to say the Jets don't second guess themselves and take Fields? It may not work, but there's no downside to it really. If you get Fields you can claim you got the guy you really wanted and if you get Wilson, yay!, and you can say you got who you planned for. The potential upside of such a move more directly impacts your team if it works than letting a few teams behind you get a head start on their own potential trade scenarios. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Why are we specifically expecting the Niners to be the ones who get Rodgers?  If I were GB and I were stupid enough to be trading him, I would be targeting AFC teams.  New England, Tennessee, Vegas, Denver...

For narrative purposes, I suspect. It would be a fitting end to his career if he went home to the team he wanted to be drafted by and won them an Owl, which is certainly possible if the Niners would have to trade anything other than picks.

[Trebla]

Ah, DRAFT DAY. My second favorite (NFL) day of the year because hope springs eternal. 

I agree with the consensus that Dallas needs to draft one of the elite corners (Surtain or Horn) unless Sewell or Pitts drop to them.  Then...if Surtain is gone I'd say draft Sewell or Pitts. If all 3 are gone, trade down for Horn or even lower for CB Caleb Farley. His back is concerning but it's been said he has the highest ceiling of the corners.

If they draft Pitts, Sewell, and Surtain and or Horn are still on the bard then I would try like Hell to trade up to grab one by dangling picks AND WR Michael Gallup. He'd be the odd man out on a team with Cooper, Lamb, and Pitts.

If they got Sewell, I'd day 1 start him at one of the tackles. If LT, move Tyron Smith to RT and La'el Collins to LG where he started his first couple years in the league. If starting Sewell at RT, again just move Collins to LG. That line would absolutely be monstrous.

Not that I really think that Pitts or Sewell will drop to them and I don't favor a tradeup. Dallas has way to many defensive needs to lose picks. Get one of the elite corners to team with former 2020 2nd round pick Trevon Diggs.

ETA: The Rodgers news is hysterical. That team really doesn't know how to finesse ageing future Hall of Fame QB's.

[KingintheNorth4]

So I'm thinking that the Bears pick an offensive lineman since last season, the line was bullied and pushed around in alot of games.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

So I'm thinking that the Bears pick an offensive lineman since last season, the line was bullied and pushed around in alot of games.

GM hat on, say 3 QBs and Pitts go in the top four, do you trade your next three first round picks to the Bengals to pick either Fields or Lance?

And @Mexal and @Nictarion, do you take that?

[Rhom]

I don’t ever remember the draft being on both ABC and ESPN before.

Kind of expected it to just be the same cast, but I see the college Gameday crew on ABC.  And the usual NFL folks on ESPN.

I’m kinda torn.

[dbunting]

So a wth question... If jacksonville calls GB about Rodgers, #1 overall for him straight up... Prospect for current MVP player?

[Kalbear]

15 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

So I'm thinking that the Bears pick an offensive lineman since last season, the line was bullied and pushed around in alot of games.

yeah, definitely the good case, gotta give Dalton time to pick that defense apart