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NFL 2021 - Draft Day or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Pick


Mr. Chatywin et al.

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16 minutes ago, briantw said:

I don't have a problem with Amari Rodgers, but he seems like a really low ceiling guy.

Meh, I don't think his ceiling is considerably lower than any WR taken ahead of him on Day 2 - the Moores, Eskridge, Atwell, Brown, Palmer.  I guess maybe Marshall but that's almost entirely due to the fact that he's tall - and most of the other guys (including Rodgers) are undersized for anything but slot.  This is why, while I'm still pissed the Niners didn't draft a WR and instead drafted two RBs, I kind of understand.  After the top 3 the WR class didn't particularly impress me.  Anyway, this is neither here nor there.  We basically agree on (Aaron) Rodgers.

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38 minutes ago, briantw said:

My take on it is that the Green Bay front office is, at best, incompetent at present and, at worst, actively antagonizing Rodgers with their draft selections.  At the same time, I'm sure the main reason the situation came to a head is because Rodgers is an asshole that refuses to let perceived slights go.  

They aren’t perceived slights though. They’re very real if you believe him. He’s said before that it’s frustrating that they have no interest in his input when it comes to roster and draft decision, and that would really piss me off if I’m the star QB carrying subpar talent. It’s fair to say his career has ultimately been a disappoint and that the Packers specifically have failed him. They haven’t drafted well and they kept McCarthy in charge for way too long.

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16 minutes ago, DMC said:

Meh, I don't think his ceiling is considerably lower than any WR taken ahead of him on Day 2 - the Moores, Eskridge, Atwell, Brown, Palmer.  I guess maybe Marshall but that's almost entirely due to the fact that he's tall - and most of the other guys (including Rodgers) are undersized for anything but slot.  This is why, while I'm still pissed the Niners didn't draft a WR and instead drafted two RBs, I kind of understand.  After the top 3 the WR class didn't particularly impress me.  Anyway, this is neither here nor there.  We basically agree on (Aaron) Rodgers.

Marshall is a vastly superior prospect, with the caveat that I don't know his health situation that caused him to drop to day two.  As are both the Moores, who were dominant in college early, were early declares, and are vastly superior athletes. 

Beyond that, this draft kind of sucked at receiver.  I think Nico Collins is an intriguing prospect, and I liked Tylan Wallace as well.  But that's exactly why the Packers should have drafted a WR last year in what was obviously an incredibly deep class that turned out to potentially be historically good.  It became abundantly clear how weak this class was once all these kids did their athletic testing.  Most of them weighed in significantly lighter than people hoped and, outside of a few guys like Marshall, Toney, the Moores, and Chase, the bulk of the class lowered their standings when they came in slower than expected too or refused to test.

ETA: Here are a few receivers drafted in the second round that the Packers could have had with their first last year: Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Chase Claypool, Laviska Shenault, and Denzel Mims.  I'd rather have all of those guys right now than Jordan Love and it's not close.  I'd rather have Bryan Edwards too, but he was a third rounder.  

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5 minutes ago, briantw said:

Marshall is a vastly superior prospect, with the caveat that I don't know his health situation that caused him to drop to day two.  As are both the Moores, who were dominant in college early, were early declares, and are vastly superior athletes. 

Lol, this is hyperbole, especially "vastly superior athletes."

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10 minutes ago, DMC said:

Lol, this is hyperbole, especially "vastly superior athletes."

Rodgers is sub-50th percentile in every athletic metric.

Rondale Moore is over 90th percentile in forty time, along with burst and agility scores.  The only thing he's sub-50th percentile in is speed score, which makes sense given that he's 5'7" and 180 pounds and that's a stat that adjusts forty times for height and weight.  Elijah Moore is over 90th percentile in forty time and agility score, and over the 50th percentile in burst score.  Much like Rondale, he gets a low (35th percentile) speed score because he's short and not super heavy.

Marshall was in the 80th to 85th percentile in everything he tested in.  He didn't do the agility drill, so he has no score there.  Due to his height and weight, he's a pretty elite size/speed guy.

I don't know what you consider vastly superior as far as the difference between NFL athletes goes, but I think those qualify.  You're comparing some of the most athletic guys in this year's draft at the position and a guy who is thoroughly below average.  Doesn't mean he'll suck.  Jarvis Landry isn't a great athlete by NFL standards and he has had a very productive career.  The main difference is that Landry was far more productive in college and broke out early despite playing with Odell Beckham.

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14 minutes ago, briantw said:

I don't know what you consider vastly superior as far as the difference between NFL athletes goes, but I think those qualify.

I don't.  Particularly the difference in 40 times.  I've seen Rodgers compared to a mini-Deebo, and I can see it.  He does a lot of interesting things depending on scheme that aren't gonna show up in testing.  Particularly when we're talking about the difference between consensus 2nd rounders to a consensus 3rd rounder, I don't think the "vastly" adjective should be thrown around for anything other than Marshall is vastly taller.  It's a crapshoot for all of them. 

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I love the post-draft fugue. Every fan is convinced that their whatever-round rookie is gonna be good because he lit up those other kids he was playing with. And a trusted authority figure drafted him so he must be good!

 

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I definitely agree that the Rodgers-Packers issues stem mostly from the front office's moves over the last few years. But I don't think you can discount just how deflating that NFC Championship Game was.

He talked after the game about how gutted he was. That was the first time he'd gotten to play a conference championship game at home. He outplayed Brady most of the game. And in this long-awaited home game, his coach decided not to let him go on fourth down, but to... give the ball back to Tom Brady? Tom Brady, an all-time great quarterback who finally got fed up with what he felt was a lack of support, and forced his way off a successful team. It's a little on the nose for fiction but it actually happened.

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1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

I definitely agree that the Rodgers-Packers issues stem mostly from the front office's moves over the last few years. But I don't think you can discount just how deflating that NFC Championship Game was.

He talked after the game about how gutted he was. That was the first time he'd gotten to play a conference championship game at home. He outplayed Brady most of the game. And in this long-awaited home game, his coach decided not to let him go on fourth down, but to... give the ball back to Tom Brady? Tom Brady, an all-time great quarterback who finally got fed up with what he felt was a lack of support, and forced his way off a successful team. It's a little on the nose for fiction but it actually happened.

How LeFleur wasn't LeFired is beyond me.

At what point does incompetence end, and criminality begin?

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1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

I definitely agree that the Rodgers-Packers issues stem mostly from the front office's moves over the last few years. But I don't think you can discount just how deflating that NFC Championship Game was.

He talked after the game about how gutted he was. That was the first time he'd gotten to play a conference championship game at home. He outplayed Brady most of the game. And in this long-awaited home game, his coach decided not to let him go on fourth down, but to... give the ball back to Tom Brady? Tom Brady, an all-time great quarterback who finally got fed up with what he felt was a lack of support, and forced his way off a successful team. It's a little on the nose for fiction but it actually happened.

Yeah I remember him being so dejected after that game. Made some comment about how if he had known they weren't going for it on 4th down he would've maybe tried to run it in himself or called a different play. He was beyond upset at giving the ball and hoping their mediocre defense could stop the GOAT. Add that to drafting Love the year before, him now getting engaged, his life might be going in different direction and that direction is back home to the west coast whether as a QB or as a retiree. 

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16 hours ago, Babblebauble said:

I love the post-draft fugue. Every fan is convinced that their whatever-round rookie is gonna be good because he lit up those other kids he was playing with. And a trusted authority figure drafted him so he must be good!

 

Well, my take on the Dolphins draft it pretty straightforward.  I personally didn't like the trade back up to 6 to end up with Waddle.  But if Grier and Flores actually did have number 2 overall on their draft board after Lawrence, then they definitely manufactured a lot of extra value.  Though after the draft, saying Waddle was the plan all along is the only thing they can say, seeing how it played out.  I suspect if Chase fell to 6, then they'd leak that he was their #2 overall prospect, but I'm cynical.

All that being said, Brian Flores is a trusted authority figure, so Waddle must be good.  I hope I'm wrong about him not being 2 first round draft picks worth of good, but there we are.

Jaelan and Jevon, I'm fine with, and trading back up for the RT for Notre Dame was fine too.  

And while I'm sure he'll grow into a very handsome man in another 6 years or so, I really do hope Zach Wilson's ceiling is Sam Darnold and the Jets have just continued to Jet. 

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25 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Though after the draft, saying Waddle was the plan all along is the only thing they can say, seeing how it played out. 

Tell that to the Jags, who flat out said they wanted Toney and had to settle for Etienne.  :lol:

At any rate, I agree that was just coach/GM speak.  If they actually had Waddle above Chase, I seriously question their decision making.  To me, that's akin to taking Ruggs over Lamb last year.  

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On 5/6/2021 at 9:32 PM, Babblebauble said:

How LeFleur wasn't LeFired is beyond me.

At what point does incompetence end, and criminality begin?

He should've been cuffed, shackled, hogtied and chain-dragged to a beating post according to many Green Bay fans.

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Now we know what the Colts were saving their money for. Eric Fisher is gonna get paid ten million monies to rehab his torn Brad Pitt tendon. I kinda thought they'd sign the fella to lock him down for the future, but someone forgot to tell them to make the deal multi-year.

ETA: Also they have no first-round pick next year, 'cause of the Wentz trade.

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It figures that, for all my criticisms of Devonta Smith, he's the guy I end up with in the first round of my first dynasty rookie draft this year.  :lol:

It really sucked how the draft played out for me.  I was picking tenth overall and all five QBs plus Chase, Pitts, Etienne, and Harris were gone.  Ouch. 

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