NFL 2021 - Draft Day or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Pick

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Game was more competitive than I expected.  Dak looked good, which has got to be a big relief for Dallas fans.  But even with Dak looking sharp AND the Bucs secondary getting injured AND good bounces resulting in 3 turnovers, they still couldn't steal the win.  If they play the Bucs in the playoffs, I doubt they'll be so lucky. 

We’ll see. Idk if the Cowboys will make the playoffs, but teams shouldn’t be too worried about the Bucs. All QBs decline over the course of the season, and older QBs decline more rapidly. Brady wasn’t that good in last year’s playoffs and I wouldn’t expect him to be that good this year. It’s also worth noting that the Bucs were the healthiest team last year. You can’t expect that to happen again. In the NFC, if you’re giving me the Bucs or the field, I’ll take the field all day.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

We’ll see. Idk if the Cowboys will make the playoffs, but teams shouldn’t be too worried about the Bucs. All QBs decline over the course of the season, and older QBs decline more rapidly. Brady wasn’t that good in last year’s playoffs and I wouldn’t expect him to be that good this year. It’s also worth noting that the Bucs were the healthiest team last year. You can’t expect that to happen again. In the NFC, if you’re giving me the Bucs or the field, I’ll take the field all day.

Ok, but very rarely in the NFL would you take a single team over the field.  I agree that the Bucs aren't quite that high, but I think I'd take them over any two NFC teams I could name (who's next, Packers and Rams? Both those teams have some flaws too). 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

25 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Ok, but very rarely in the NFL would you take a single team over the field.  I agree that the Bucs aren't quite that high, but I think I'd take them over any two NFC teams I could name (who's next, Packers and Rams? Both those teams have some flaws too). 

Sure, but the media narrative this year is a SB rematch is likely to happen. I don’t think either the Bucs or the Chiefs are lock by any means though.  In the NFC, on top of the teams you named, I’d also add the Seahawks, Niners and some random team is sure to emerge. I don’t think there’s much of a gap between any of those teams if they stay healthy. Hell the ol’ Football Team could be a threat if Fitzmagic is just above average without the Fitztragic mistakes.

[Kalbear]

Fuck cris Collinsworth

 

[Iskaral Pust]

That was an enjoyable game last night, and closer than expected.  Good to see Dak looking healthy and game-ready.  Brady just knows how to build a game-winning drive though.

I wasn’t sure that should have been an OPI call, but definitely worth a review at that point.  I thought perhaps the back had enough of a grasp on the receiver’s arm before the ball arrived that it was justified that the WR could shrug him off to free up his arm.  The CB isn’t allowed to grapple his arm before the ball to prevent him attempting the catch.  But that was just a quick take and might be harsh on the CB.

Since I have a Peacock subscription, I’ll watch the Bears get destroyed on Sunday night.

[aceluby]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Ok, but very rarely in the NFL would you take a single team over the field.  I agree that the Bucs aren't quite that high, but I think I'd take them over any two NFC teams I could name (who's next, Packers and Rams? Both those teams have some flaws too). 

TB12 drinks the blood of children as sacrifice to the football gods, but this looks like a team that will need to be carried by him for most of the season.  At 44 years old.  As SB champs where every team will be preparing for your game all season.  With an extra game and likely no bye week in the playoffs.  And then there's just a possibility of slumping and/or injuries, especially at the wrong time.  Seattle & Pittsburg were hot as hell last year and limped to the finish line.  So yeah, taking them over the field when they had their own issues just last year seems presumptive.  I very much doubt we'll see a rematch of last year's SB.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Speaking of taking last year's results and projecting for this season, Josh Allen is going to be fun to watch:

 

[briantw]

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Speaking of taking last year's results and projecting for this season, Josh Allen is going to be fun to watch:

 

It'll be really interesting to see if last year was an outlier and he regresses to the mean this year or if it was for real.

[Rhom]

The moment I’ve been waiting for has come fellas…

My stepdaughter is a college freshman.  I was able to use her Student ID to sign up for Sunday Tickets streaming service.

No more going to BDubs for substandard wings to watch the Niners!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, briantw said:

It'll be really interesting to see if last year was an outlier and he regresses to the mean this year or if it was for real.

I think there will be some regression, but I don’t expect this to be a Wentz situation. His flaws are still there, but a better scheme can mask them. He still panics under pressure, but that pressure has to come from a guy who can actually take him down. What will be interesting is if Diggs misses a few games. Allen is weak against man coverage while Diggs eats it up better than just about any WR in the league. It’s possible that Diggs is more responsible for the massive jump in production than anything Allen actually did.

I get why they wanted to lock him up long term, but I would have wanted to wait a bit before the deal was done just to make sure it wasn’t an outlier year. Jackson and Mayfield still don’t have their deals done, and with the latter I have no idea what you offer him.

 

[briantw]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think there will be some regression, but I don’t expect this to be a Wentz situation. His flaws are still there, but a better scheme can mask them. He still panics under pressure, but that pressure has to come from a guy who can actually take him down. What will be interesting is if Diggs misses a few games. Allen is weak against man coverage while Diggs eats it up better than just about any WR in the league. It’s possible that Diggs is more responsible for the massive jump in production than anything Allen actually did.

I get why they wanted to lock him up long term, but I would have wanted to wait a bit before the deal was done just to make sure it wasn’t an outlier year. Jackson and Mayfield still don’t have their deals done, and with the latter I have no idea what you offer him.

I think both Mayfield and the Browns are content to let this year play out and see what happens.  Mayfield is betting on himself and the Browns want to see that the second half of last year wasn't a fluke.  Which, as you said, is probably what Buffalo should have done with Allen.  

As for Lamar, him representing himself probably creates some hurdles in contract negotiations, especially as the season approaches.  Whereas with Mayfield, he can focus on football and leave the talks with the Browns' front office to his agent.

I will be really interested to see what type of contract Mayfield will ultimately end up with.  Will he take a bit of a discount to stay in Cleveland and keep the team talented like Chubb did?  After all, he does have some very lucrative endorsement deals and, if the Browns continue to be good, he'll only have more opportunities because, unlike most NFL players (looking at you, Mahomes), he can actually act and has good comedic timing.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

No more going to BDubs for substandard wings to watch the Niners!

Last year I just watched them illegally at home, but before that - yes, it was BDubs, and will be again on Sunday.  That being said, you realize you don't have to get any wings, right?  I just drank, sometimes I'd get a pretzel.  It's hard to fuck up a pretzel.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

55 minutes ago, briantw said:

As for Lamar, him representing himself probably creates some hurdles in contract negotiations, especially as the season approaches.  Whereas with Mayfield, he can focus on football and leave the talks with the Browns' front office to his agent.

I'm not sure you need a full time agent to negotiate contracts anymore. You certainly need them for endorsements and other non-football items, but these days you kind of know the range you'll be in if you're a QB, and you can just hire a firm to handle the details over the course of a few weeks, maybe a bit longer. You can save a lot of money that way. 

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I will be really interested to see what type of contract Mayfield will ultimately end up with.  Will he take a bit of a discount to stay in Cleveland and keep the team talented like Chubb did?  After all, he does have some very lucrative endorsement deals and, if the Browns continue to be good, he'll only have more opportunities because, unlike most NFL players (looking at you, Mahomes), he can actually act and has good comedic timing.

I don't think he'll do what a lot of guys are doing now, in that the next QB contract has to reset the market. The question is how much of a cut would he accept? Is $30M AAV okay for him? 

Man, I remember being a kid and people were freaking out that Favre got like $10M a year.

[Rhom]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

Last year I just watched them illegally at home, but before that - yes, it was BDubs, and will be again on Sunday.  That being said, you realize you don't have to get any wings, right?  I just drank, sometimes I'd get a pretzel.  It's hard to fuck up a pretzel.

I’ve been depressed ever since they took the mini corn dogs off the menu.  

I drink more sweet tea than is safe for my bladder when I go.  One time, my wife came and picked up the kids at halftime.  So I stayed and sat by myself for the second half and was scared to get up to go to the bathroom lest they turn my table over while I was gone!  

Gotta say, the student price for Sunday Ticket isn’t bad.  $30/mo.  Thats $8/game.  I will pay that every day!

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Rhom said:

I drink more sweet tea than is safe for my bladder when I go.

I drink more whiskey than is safe for my bladder when I go, but when I gotta piss I still do so in their rank bathrooms.  Of course, I don't have a wife and kid, just an equally drunk brother.

[Rhom]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I drink more whiskey than is safe for my bladder when I go, but when I gotta piss I still do so in their rank bathrooms.  Of course, I don't have a wife and kid, just an equally drunk brother.

It’s gonna be a good weekend for me.  We are headed to Lexington tomorrow to watch the Cats play Mizzou and staying the night there.  Just gotta be back home by 1:00 for the Niners game.

[Whiskeyjack]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm not sure you need a full time agent to negotiate contracts anymore. You certainly need them for endorsements and other non-football items, but these days you kind of know the range you'll be in if you're a QB, and you can just hire a firm to handle the details over the course of a few weeks, maybe a bit longer. You can save a lot of money that way.

No.

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I don't think he'll do what a lot of guys are doing now, in that the next QB contract has to reset the market. The question is how much of a cut would he accept? Is $30M AAV okay for him? 

It's kind of amazing how badly you just contradicted yourself within the same post.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Whiskeyjack said:

No.

It's kind of amazing how badly you just contradicted yourself within the same post.

Well of course you would argue that. 

And where's the contradiction? That Baker shouldn't get an agent and then accept a contract of that value? I'm talking about from the Brown's perspective, because if I'm them I am not giving anything close to top 5 money unless he balls out and makes a deep run. And even then I'd be nervous offering him such a deal because I don't think he's ever going to be that guy. You can win games with Baker, but I doubt a team will ever win a title because of Baker.

[briantw]

11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Well of course you would argue that. 

And where's the contradiction? That Baker shouldn't get an agent and then accept a contract of that value? I'm talking about from the Brown's perspective, because if I'm them I am not giving anything close to top 5 money unless he balls out and makes a deep run. And even then I'd be nervous offering him such a deal because I don't think he's ever going to be that guy. You can win games with Baker, but I doubt a team will ever win a title because of Baker.

There's a hell of a lot more nuance to NFL contracts than simply average per year.  There's also a reason that very few NFL players choose to represent themselves, and that's because most of them have no experience in contract structure or negotiation.

As far as Baker goes, I think we'll know a lot more about who he is and what he's capable of after this year.  He's in a system where, historically, a lot of guys have taken a big step in year two.  And this is the first year he's had the same coaching staff as the year before, along with the same starting eleven on offense.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

54 minutes ago, briantw said:

There's a hell of a lot more nuance to NFL contracts than simply average per year.  There's also a reason that very few NFL players choose to represent themselves, and that's because most of them have no experience in contract structure or negotiation.

Of course there are. And again, representing yourself =/= not having legal counsel. 

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As far as Baker goes, I think we'll know a lot more about who he is and what he's capable of after this year.  He's in a system where, historically, a lot of guys have taken a big step in year two.  And this is the first year he's had the same coaching staff as the year before, along with the same starting eleven on offense.

I think this a very rational take. I also think you guys may very well win tomorrow.