NFL 2021 - Draft Day or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Pick

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not gonna lie, I watched maybe 10 minutes of draft coverage live last night and it was when he appeared. It's hard to look jacked in a suit and he's....

I'm a big fan of Bomani Jones, and he and his brother used to play a game called "What would it take you to slap Ray Lewis in the face?" Garrett makes Lewis look small, and while we don't know if Lewis actually killed a guy or not, we did see Miles beat a man over the head with a deadly weapon.

Apparently someone went up to Garrett when he was stopped in his car with his window down and punched him in the face and ran away.  Garrett didn't even get out of the car.

Outside of the Rudolph incident, which was almost certainly instigated by Rudolph calling him the n-word, he seems like a big, soft-spoken nerd.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

Apparently someone went up to Garrett when he was stopped in his car with his window down and punched him in the face and ran away.  Garrett didn't even get out of the car.

Outside of the Rudolph incident, which was almost certainly instigated by Rudolph calling him the n-word, he seems like a big, soft-spoken nerd.  

Oh I'm on record saying the whole thing was funny given nobody actually got hurt.

[Maithanet]

So where did this Rodgers v Packers feud come from?  Why is he so upset with the GM?  I feel like this went from "Rodgers is vaguely upset" to "Rodgers says he'll retire before he plays for the Packers again" really fast. 

[Kalbear]

17 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

So where did this Rodgers v Packers feud come from?  Why is he so upset with the GM?  I feel like this went from "Rodgers is vaguely upset" to "Rodgers says he'll retire before he plays for the Packers again" really fast. 

Pretty sure part of it came from them drafting other QBs and random schmoes and not going after good talent in free agency to help Rodgers. 

And then whatever happened in the playoffs? I don't honestly know or remember, but twitter said that it was a pretty shitty coaching job. 

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

Pretty sure part of it came from them drafting other QBs and random schmoes and not going after good talent in free agency to help Rodgers. 

And then whatever happened in the playoffs? I don't honestly know or remember, but twitter said that it was a pretty shitty coaching job. 

In the playoffs the coach decided to kick a field goal late in the game to cut the deficit from 8 to 5 points.  The Packers kicked to Tampa and never got the ball back.  BUT, analytics have actually said that kicking there isn't a loser move it's portrayed as, it's really a wash in terms of win %.  If you go for it, you need to: score a touchdown from the 8 (~33% chance), score the 2 point conversion (~ 50% chance), hold the Bucs scoreless for the rest of the game (~ 40% chance) and then win in overtime (~50% chance).  That adds up to winning the game 3.3% of the time. 

Conversely, if you kick the fg, you need to keep the Bucs from getting 2 first downs (~30% chance) score a touchdown on the final drive with the remaining time (~11% chance).  Which comes out to 3.3% of the time. 

I can see how Rodgers would rather rely on his offense scoring the touchdown rather than passively hoping that the defense would hold.  But it's also hard to believe that this decision is the driving force behind Rodgers wanting to leave.  Likewise drafting Jordan Love 26th overall no doubt didn't make him happy, but is he really that thin skinned?  I dunno, maybe he is.  Hard to imagine the 26th pick would have made the difference.

[ljkeane]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But it's also hard to believe that this decision is the driving force behind Rodgers wanting to leave.  Likewise drafting Jordan Love 26th overall no doubt didn't make him happy, but is he really that thin skinned?  I dunno, maybe he is.  Hard to imagine the 26th pick would have made the difference.

Apparently he does hold a grudge but does he really have to be that thin skinned? He's set for life financially, he has already won a Super Bowl and a bunch of personal milestones. If he doesn't particularly like working with the people in Green Bay why bother?

I do feel like this kind of stuff gets framed differently for professional athletes than for everyone else. If I had tens of millions of dollars and I wasn't enjoying my work situation I'd be gone tomorrow and I don't think anyone would be surprised. It doesn't have to be a high bar.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The decision to kick the FG in the playoffs has little to no impact on his displeasure with the organization and it’s not the reason he wants out. His beef is with the front office. Nine of the last ten first round picks were on defensive players and the one offensive player was his replacement. They have not hit on many of these picks, the defense hasn’t been that good and in general have not been very good at drafting. That’s especially problematic for an organization that doesn’t sign a lot of high end free agents. But more than anything else Rodgers seems to resent that the front office doesn’t take his wises into account, hence why he refers to the GM as Jerry Krause, the Bulls GM who would never listen to MJ’s input. That’s where the problem lays plus it sounds like the front office in general is horrible at communicating with Aaron.

I’d be pissed too if I was an organization’s most important employee and yet my opinions are ignored. This would be true in any business setting. The Packers have largely failed him and he doesn’t want to waste his last few years there considering they aren’t planning with him in mind.

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Apparently he does hold a grudge but does he really have to be that thin skinned? He's set for life financially, he has already won a Super Bowl and a bunch of personal milestones. If he doesn't particularly like working with the people in Green Bay why bother?

I do feel like this kind of stuff gets framed differently for professional athletes than for everyone else. If I had tens of millions of dollars and I wasn't enjoying my work situation I'd be gone tomorrow and I don't think anyone would be surprised. It doesn't have to be a high bar.

You are right that professional athletes do get held to a different standard.  But a lot of that is because in order to become a pro athlete you have to be kinda crazy in terms of the desire to win over all else.  If you are just a super athletic dude that views footballL as a 9-to-5 and also want to pursue your hobbies like surfing, hiking and bbq, you generally don't last in the NFL.  Because culturally, it is expected that you are working way more than 40 hours a week and all your other interests are relegated to just a minor dabbling in the offseason.  In exchange for this, you are paid very, very well. 

It's possible that Rodgers competitive fire is waning, that he's looking at his post-NFL life and thinking "I could start doing that right now!"  But if that were the case, the problem isn't really with the Packers.  Why would getting traded to Vegas help? 

[Maithanet]

It doesn't make sense to trade for Rodgers if you aren't ready to WIN NOW.  The best available teams for that post-draft are probably Vegas, Tennessee and Washington.  Indy, LAR and SF all would have been better choices if this were two months ago, but it isn't.  Tennessee isn't a great fit for Rodgers because they're a run first team without a ton of great passing weapons and a hit-and-miss defense.  Vegas isn't a great fit for Rodgers because they're in the Chiefs division and are pretty average talent-wise.  Washington isn't a great fit because the team is historically dysfunctional and the talent is almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

If I were Rodgers, I'm not at all sure that any of those teams offer a better chance to win a Super Bowl than staying in Green Bay does, particularly given the cost it would take to acquire him.  I mean, they were really close this past year in a very questionably officiated NFCCG. 

 

EDIT:  However, it doesn't feel like this is really a "GB doesn't give me a chance to win" problem.  GB isn't an overwhelmingly talented team, but they definitely have some studs outside of just Rodgers. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It doesn't make sense to trade for Rodgers if you aren't ready to WIN NOW.  The best available teams for that post-draft are probably Vegas, Tennessee and Washington.  Indy, LAR and SF all would have been better choices if this were two months ago, but it isn't.  Tennessee isn't a great fit for Rodgers because they're a run first team without a ton of great passing weapons and a hit-and-miss defense.  Vegas isn't a great fit for Rodgers because they're in the Chiefs division and are pretty average talent-wise.  Washington isn't a great fit because the team is historically dysfunctional and the talent is almost entirely on the defensive side of the ball. 

 

If I were Rodgers, I'm not at all sure that any of those teams offer a better chance to win a Super Bowl than staying in Green Bay does, particularly given the cost it would take to acquire him.  I mean, they were really close this past year in a very questionably officiated NFCCG. 

 

EDIT:  However, it doesn't feel like this is really a "GB doesn't give me a chance to win" problem.  GB isn't an overwhelmingly talented team, but they definitely have some studs outside of just Rodgers. 

Denver. The obvious answer is Denver. They have a really good defense and a lot of skill talent. Rodgers on that team makes them a real contender. I suspect they passed on Fields to take the best CB, a big need for GB, and they’ll trade him and two firsts for Rodgers. That’s a fair deal for both sides and gives Rodgers a 3-4 year window to win.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Denver. The obvious answer is Denver. They have a really good defense and a lot of skill talent. Rodgers on that team makes them a real contender. I suspect they passed on Fields to take the best CB, a big need for GB, and they’ll trade him and two firsts for Rodgers. That’s a fair deal for both sides and gives Rodgers a 3-4 year window to win.

Denver has a really good defense?  They were 25th in points allowed and 29th in takeaways last year.  They have fallen a long way from the 2015 squad, and Von Miller isn't getting any younger (plenty of the great defenders of the 2011 draft are either already retired or clearly on the downswing). 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

35 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Denver has a really good defense?  They were 25th in points allowed and 29th in takeaways last year.  They have fallen a long way from the 2015 squad, and Von Miller isn't getting any younger (plenty of the great defenders of the 2011 draft are either already retired or clearly on the downswing). 

Miller didn’t play last year, but if he can return to 80% of his peak form then he’s still a good player. Defense is hard to predict year over year, but a quick Google search suggests analysts think they’ll be good next year and that’s what’s in line with what the talking heads are saying. They’re not an elite unit, but they should be in the top 10 conversation at the end of the year. That’s more than enough if they have Rodgers and those skill players (Idk how good their line and having one of the worst QBs in the NFL didn’t do the defense any favors either).

[briantw]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

So where did this Rodgers v Packers feud come from?  Why is he so upset with the GM?  I feel like this went from "Rodgers is vaguely upset" to "Rodgers says he'll retire before he plays for the Packers again" really fast. 

The team pretty much just refuses to get him help.  Last year, WR was a glaring need for the Packers and it was an absolutely loaded draft at the position.  They used their late first to reach for a QB who wasn't good and then wasted their second rounder on a backup RB, a move that might have ended up making more sense if they hadn't spent a ton to bring back Aaron Jones.

Then this year they used their first on a CB in a class that's loaded at that position and were left picking from the scraps at WR, still their most glaring weakness, in the third.  I don't hate Amari Rodgers, but he's a third round, unathletic dude who wasn't great in college and wasn't an early declare.  Maybe you get lucky and he's Jarvis Landry, but chances are he doesn't amount to anything.  

Rodgers is definitely petty and childish, but we've known that for years.  He's always been petty and childish.  However, I think it's easy to see why he's frustrated with the Packers.  They've been coasting off their reputation as one of the best front offices in football for years now when most of the guys who built that reputation don't work there any more. Their last few drafts indicate they're closer to the bottom of the league as an organization than the top, and last year was particularly egregious because they drafted like a rebuilding team when they have one of the five to ten best quarterbacks of all time on their roster with probably three or so more years of high end production.  

[Maithanet]

16 minutes ago, briantw said:

The team pretty much just refuses to get him help.  Last year, WR was a glaring need for the Packers and it was an absolutely loaded draft at the position.  They used their late first to reach for a QB who wasn't good and then wasted their second rounder on a backup RB, a move that might have ended up making more sense if they hadn't spent a ton to bring back Aaron Jones.

Then this year they used their first on a CB in a class that's loaded at that position and were left picking from the scraps at WR, still their most glaring weakness, in the third.  I don't hate Amari Rodgers, but he's a third round, unathletic dude who wasn't great in college and wasn't an early declare.  Maybe you get lucky and he's Jarvis Landry, but chances are he doesn't amount to anything.  

Rodgers is definitely petty and childish, but we've known that for years.  He's always been petty and childish.  However, I think it's easy to see why he's frustrated with the Packers.  They've been coasting off their reputation as one of the best front offices in football for years now when most of the guys who built that reputation don't work there any more. Their last few drafts indicate they're closer to the bottom of the league as an organization than the top, and last year was particularly egregious because they drafted like a rebuilding team when they have one of the five to ten best quarterbacks of all time on their roster with probably three or so more years of high end production.  

I do agree with the assessment that the Packers have a reputation as one of the best front offices that is looking increasingly to be a thing of the past.  Rodgers has led good to great offenses for the past ten years without ever having an overwhelmingly talented group with him (the Manning-era Colts this is not).  If the Packers spending all those draft picks on defense meant that their defense was consistently good, then that would be a fine approach, but that hasn't been what happened.  The most impactful defensive player the Packers have drafted in the past ten years is probably Mike Daniels (and he was a 4th rounder). 

EDIT:  To be clear, I'm not trying to shit on Mike Daniels, he's a good player.  But if he's the best defensive find you have in ten years of 1st round defensive picks, then you have not been picking well. 

[briantw]

16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I do agree with the assessment that the Packers have a reputation as one of the best front offices that is looking increasingly to be a thing of the past.  Rodgers has led good to great offenses for the past ten years without ever having an overwhelmingly talented group with him (the Manning-era Colts this is not).  If the Packers spending all those draft picks on defense meant that their defense was consistently good, then that would be a fine approach, but that hasn't been what happened.  The most impactful defensive player the Packers have drafted in the past ten years is probably Mike Daniels (and he was a 4th rounder). 

EDIT:  To be clear, I'm not trying to shit on Mike Daniels, he's a good player.  But if he's the best defensive find you have in ten years of 1st round defensive picks, then you have not been picking well. 

Yeah I agree.  If the Packers were nailing their picks and had a top five to ten defense, you can give them somewhat of a pass, as we've seen teams with poor offensive talent or QB play win titles on the back of absolutely elite defenses.  And Rodgers basically guarantees you a top ten offense if he's healthy, so he's not going to be the problem in the equation.

Of course, the Packers haven't been nailing their picks, and that's the problem.  I legitimately think that their draft last year was a direct shot at Rodgers to let him know they were in charge, not him.  And that seems like an absurdly shortsighted approach when the guy you're pissing off is your best player in franchise history and he has enough money to tell you to fuck off.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, briantw said:

Yeah I agree.  If the Packers were nailing their picks and had a top five to ten defense, you can give them somewhat of a pass, as we've seen teams with poor offensive talent or QB play win titles on the back of absolutely elite defenses.  And Rodgers basically guarantees you a top ten offense if he's healthy, so he's not going to be the problem in the equation.

I actually think that if you're trying to win a lot of super bowls with your elite quarterback that focusing more assets on the defense than the offense is good strategy.  You need some talent on offense of course, but if you have an average O line and a mediocre set of offensive weapons, then a guy like Rodgers or Wilson can make that a top 8 or so offense.  Then if you use those resources you saved and can get a top 10 defense, you've got a real shot at an Owl.  I think that the Colts wasted Manning's prime by constantly reloading on offense while building a defense that was easy to run on and was only effective with the lead. 

Perhaps that's what the Packers were trying to do, but they have failed, which is why they keep losing in the playoffs to strong defensive teams like Seattle and SF and TB. 

[DMC]

2 hours ago, briantw said:

Rodgers is definitely petty and childish, but we've known that for years.  He's always been petty and childish. 

I think this is important to keep in mind.  Hard to tell from the outside who's to blame when it comes to the relationship between Rodgers and the FO, but I definitely know Rodgers is petty and childish.  Combined with the clear despondent frustration I've seen every time the Niners kick his ass over the years (which is rather frequent), and it's not hard seeing that boiling over.

[briantw]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think this is important to keep in mind.  Hard to tell from the outside who's to blame when it comes to the relationship between Rodgers and the FO, but I definitely know Rodgers is petty and childish.  Combined with the clear despondent frustration I've seen every time the Niners kick his ass over the years (which is rather frequent), and it's not hard seeing that boiling over.

My take on it is that the Green Bay front office is, at best, incompetent at present and, at worst, actively antagonizing Rodgers with their draft selections.  At the same time, I'm sure the main reason the situation came to a head is because Rodgers is an asshole that refuses to let perceived slights go.  So even if it is mere incompetence that has led to their past few drafts, Rodgers seems to believe that it's not, and that's really all that matters here.  He doesn't seem like he's going to let it go.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, briantw said:

My take on it is that the Green Bay front office is, at best, incompetent at present and, at worst, actively antagonizing Rodgers with their draft selections.

I think if Rodgers is fed up with the Packers being unable to surround him with enough talent, fair enough regardless.  Not sure about the draft selection thing, at least this year.  Eric Stokes was a reach and I thought a bad pick, but Amari Rodgers was actually good value where they drafted him (and I liked him more than a lot of the other slot options, some of which went considerably earlier).  If he's still pissed about the Love pick I get that, but on the FO's end it's not exactly unreasonable to get an insurance policy for a 36 year old QB.

[briantw]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think if Rodgers is fed up with the Packers being unable to surround him with enough talent, fair enough regardless.  Not sure about the draft selection thing, at least this year.  Eric Stokes was a reach and I thought a bad pick, but Amari Rodgers was actually good value where they drafted him (and I liked him more than a lot of the other slot options, some of which went considerably earlier).  If he's still pissed about the Love pick I get that, but on the FO's end it's not exactly unreasonable to get an insurance policy for a 36 year old QB.

It's not unreasonable to get an insurance policy, but you don't draft him in the first round when you're trying to win now, you have a massive hole at secondary WR, and your defense is middling despite constantly investing first round picks in that end of the field.

I don't have a problem with Amari Rodgers, but he seems like a really low ceiling guy.  At his absolute best, maybe he's Jarvis Landry, but more than likely he's out of the league in five years or someone's WR5, a break glass in case of multiple major injuries guy.  Like all the other day two and three receivers the Packers have drafted the past few years aside from Adams, and that draft was eight years ago and with a different GM in charge.