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If faegon's coloring (hair,skin tone, eyes) don't match to aegon's how many alive characters can know that?

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not sure a Blackfyre agenda is really all that important.

I didn't say the Blackfyres are important. Here. So long as Dany doesn't believe Aegon is legit. It's GRRM way of entwining threads in different places. Giving depth and complexity to the story. Having readers arguing about things that don't really matters, while matbe missing important ones.

56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

For Varys it isn't that important who Aegon is. If it were, he would have revealed that to Kevan

He could, but then we wouldn't have this argument, this doubt. Or he did, but it was not reported by whoever wrote the epilogue.

Edited by BalerionTheCat

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4 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I didn't say the Blackfyres are important. Here. So long as Dany doesn't believe Aegon is legit. It's GRRM way of entwining threads in different places. Giving depth and complexity to the story. Having readers arguing about things that don't really matters, while matbe missing important ones.

He could, but then we wouldn't have this argument, this doubt. Or he did, but it was not reported by whoever wrote the epilogue.

Well, the idea is that George have used the Epilogue to turn Varys into a character who was mainly motivated by revenge. His speech could have been about who his parents were and what he was doing this for, how the fucked the Targaryens first and the Baratheons later and how he destroyed Tywin and now Kevan and eventually whoever else is going to stand in his way.

Instead we got a different insight there.

Also, while there might be a Second Dance between Dany and Aegon I'm reasonably sure that Varys is not going to push Aegon in that direction. He will understand that they should accommodate the dragon queen and include them in their power structure rather than risk everything they gained - basically the entire point of the Aegon plan - just so Aegon doesn't have to share power with Daenerys.

In fact, I think Varys is so detached from Aegon as a person that he is going to sacrifice him as easily as Larys Strong sacrificed Aegon II if he ever becomes an obstacle/hindrance to what he tries to accomplish with the Aegon plan.

If Varys were to think Daenerys or Jon Snow or whoever else is still in the game were better kingly material than Aegon he would likely bring Aegon down and join them. And that might be the funny thing of the Aegon plan - that Aegon is not going to be the guy Varys wants him to be. That he makes mistakes, becomes reckless and arrogant and stupid.

Varys may have wanted to create another Jaehaerys I or Aegon V ... but what he actually did create is more likely to be another Daeron I.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/1/2021 at 1:16 AM, Mister Smikes said:

Change of eye color after 9 months is rare, but not unheard of.  Eye color change up to 6 years has been reported, or so I understand.  I'm not sure it matters, because anyone who remembers Aegon's eye color will not necessarily remember it from the day he was smuggled out of king's landing.   They might instead remember it from the day he was presented at court many months earlier.  The change that they'd be far more likely to notice is a change of hair color.  And that can occur at much later ages.

I'm not sure what you think skin color has to do with this.  In any event, skin color can change at any age.  It's called getting a tan.

If my guess is correct, fAegon and Aegon are first cousins on the Martell side; and both are a Martell-Valyrian mix

What does skin color have to do with this?  I don't get it.

?? So you're saying he does not think fAegon is really Elia's son?

With Mellario of Norvos, Doran's wife.  Looks like they're in it together.

Well sure.  The fact that fAegon is a secret Blackfyre gets them the support of the Golden Company.

Marry someone else, maybe?  Anyhow, the problem for the conspirators here, is that Dany is not under their control.  After she failed to die on the Dothraki sea as planned, and hatched dragons instead, they keep on trying to bring her into the fold as an ally, and she just keeps on doing her own thing.  It seems both Doran and Illyrio wanted Dany and fAegon to join forces before they came to Westeros, and somehow that just did not work out.

 

Mister Smikes

Regarding the theory that Aegon and Quentyn have been exchanged, I have advanced the idea long ago that something is fishy in Quentyn's mission, in fact that it is unlikely that Doran expected him to succeed. That led me to the idea that Quentyn is not Doran's son, which is in turn consistent with the way Quenty's story is built (fostering at Yronwood, Mellario's behavior, Doran's indifference).

http://branvras.free.fr/HuisClos/Princes.html

I did not spell out the additional idea that the real Quentyn has grown up as Young Griff on the Rhoyne. But that seemed to me the next logical step, and that it goes well with some elements of the story (Mellario gone for Norvos, and much more, including Varys' speech in the Epilogue that should be read closely). However, I feel that we lack a few pieces to have a consistent and complete explanation. But it is a compelling story.

You suggest in addition that 1) Aegon took Quentyn's place and 2) Mellario is a Blackfyre. I have considered and rejected these ideas. 1) is unnecessary for what precedes, is not hinted at as far as I know, and weakens the idea that Doran plans to put his son on the throne to avenge his nephew. That Aegon is Quentyn is startling enough.

But 2) is interesting, would explain why the Golden Company follows Aegon so easily, and would identify the mysterious Blackfyre female line. But it does not seem consistent with the unfolding of events. Doran could not have schemed from the start with Mellario. When they married Aerys was on the throne. So you would have to think that Doran married Mellario for love, and kept secret the Blackfyre lineage. The scheming would have to come later. Moreover the idea that Mellario is a Blackfyre runs counter to the loyalties of the Martells during the Blackfyre rebellions, while the traditional adversaries, the Yronwoods, were on the rebels' side. (Or you would have to think Doran was ignorant of the Blackfyre heritage of his wife?)

Is there anything I missed about Mellario?

(For what it is worth, if you allow that Quentyn is Young Griff, I do not think Mellario is Lemore. Several inconsistencies. It is more likely that she kept an eye on the Shy Maid from Norvos, just like Illyrio did from Pentos. We meet the Maid at midpoint between those cities.)

Edited by Bran Vras

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37 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Mister Smikes

Regarding the theory that Aegon and Quentyn have been exchanged, I have advanced the idea long ago that something is fishy in Quentyn's mission, in fact that it is unlikely that Doran expected him to succeed. That led me to the idea that Quentyn is not Doran's son, which is in turn consistent with the way Quenty's story is built (fostering at Yronwood, Mellario's behavior, Doran's indifference).

Hi Bran Vras.  I actually name-dropped you only last month, in the thread "Elia Martell: Another Septa Lemore Speculation" as being the person who may have originated the fQuentyn idea.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

I did not spell out the additional idea that the real Quentyn has grown up as Young Griff on the Rhoyne. But that seemed to me the next logical step, and that it goes well with some elements of the story (Mellario gone for Norvos, and much more, including Varys' speech in the Epilogue that should be read closely).

We're together so far.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

However, I feel that we lack a few pieces to have a consistent and complete explanation. 

Sure.  It's only a theory until and unless GRRM confirms it.  And, whatever he may be planning, he's always free to pile up more clues as he leads up to the final reveal.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

You suggest in addition that 1) Aegon took Quentyn's place and 2) Mellario is a Blackfyre. I have considered and rejected these ideas. 1) is unnecessary for what precedes, is not hinted at as far as I know, and weakens the idea that Doran plans to put his son on the throne to avenge his nephew. That Aegon is Quentyn is startling enough.

But surely, if Young Griff is the real Quentyn, does that not invite the question "Who is Frog?".    And if we ask that obvious question, does not one candidate recommend himself above all others?  And if Frog "dreams of fire and blood" (as he does) might not that qualify as a hint?  And what about Dany's little joke about Frog being a Frog who might turn into a Prince.  Might not that be some kind of hint?

And what about all the alleged hints in the "Quentyn is Alive" theory?  If Frog somehow survived Rhaegal's "furnace wind", might that not point (indirectly) to further conclusions?   But maybe you don't accept that theory, or agree that any of its hints are hints.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

But 2) is interesting, would explain why the Golden Company follows Aegon so easily, and would identify the mysterious Blackfyre female line.

Yes.  There's also that curious detail, in the World Book, about how Norvosi noblewomen customarily shave their head and wear wigs.

But if you have followed me this far, look at the further implications.   You are accepting that Young Griff may be a Martell/Valyrian mix.  He has been used to impersonate the real Aegon, a Martell/Valyrian mix, who is his first cousin.  Who then did he find, to impersonate the real Quentyn, who could pass for Quentyn well enough to fool the Yronwoods?  Some random bastard of Oberyn or Doran?  Maybe.  But we have seen no clues to such a person.  And we have seen clues about Quentyn's first cousin Baby Aegon, with this whole ambiguous mystery about whether he is dead or missing.  To paraphrase Occham's Razor, why should we multiply entities without necessity?  Why have multiple solutions to multiple mysteries when we can have a single solution to multiple mysteries and bring the threads of the story together in the process?

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

But it does not seem consistent with the unfolding of events. Doran could not have schemed from the start with Mellario. When they married Aerys was on the throne. So you would have to think that Doran married Mellario for love, and kept secret the Blackfyre lineage.

I believe that GRRM specifically says in an SSM somewhere that Doran married Mellario for love.  But of course, Princely schemer that he was, I'm sure he had a general awareness that a secret marriage alliance with the Blackfyres might possibly be leveraged, in future, for influence with the Golden Company. 

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

The scheming would have to come later. 

That would certainly have to be true of anything as specific as a baby swap scheme.  Babies are entirely unpredictable, and one cannot formulate a baby swap scheme until one has babies to swap, and a motive to swap them.   When Quentyn was 3 years old, Mellario threw a tantrum when Doran proposed sending Quentyn to be fostered with the Yronwoods.  It is reasonable to suppose that a baby swap scheme had not been formulated yet at this point, though it may have been formulated immediately afterwards.   Also, it took time, as Baby Aegon grew, for his protectors to realize that he was growing to look less like a Targaryen, and for them to realize the potential disadvantages of this when he later made his bid for the Iron Throne.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Moreover the idea that Mellario is a Blackfyre runs counter to the loyalties of the Martells during the Blackfyre rebellions, while the traditional adversaries, the Yronwoods, were on the rebels' side. (Or you would have to think Doran was ignorant of the Blackfyre heritage of his wife?)W

Allegiances can shift over time, and Dorne is hardly unwavering in its allegiance to the Iron Throne.  With the male line of the Blackfyres wiped out, there was no longer any particular need for Doran to regard the surviving female Blackfyre descendants as bitter enemies.  And again, GRRM did say that Doran married Mellario for love.

But it is curious you mentioned the Yronwoods, as they are involved in the fostering of Quentyn.  There seems no particular reason to suppose that any Yronwoods would need to be in on any deception.  But, based on what you are telling me, it sounds as though even if some Yronwoods did know that Doran had swapped his nephew with his Blackfyre son and was plotting to put his Blackfyre son on the Ion Throne in Aegon's place, they might not necessarily object.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Is there anything I missed about Mellario?

Other than the odd customs of Norvosi noblewomen, from the World Book, I can't think of anything at the moment.

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

(For what it is worth, if you allow that Quentyn is Young Griff, I do not think Mellario is Lemore. Several inconsistencies. 

Like what?  And do you have a better theory for Lemore's identity?

46 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

It is more likely that she kept an eye on the Shy Maid from Norvos, just like Illyrio did from Pentos. We meet the Maid at midpoint between those cities.)

Surely you don't think Griff, Young Griff, and Lemore have spent the last 10 years on The Shy Maid, at the river crossing halfway between Pentos and Norvos.  And how could someone in Norvos "keep an eye" on them, without their visiting each other and spending time in each other's company.  They have to be in the same place now and then anyhow, so why can't they be the same person?

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the idea is that George have used the Epilogue to turn Varys into a character who was mainly motivated by revenge. His speech could have been about who his parents were and what he was doing this for, how the fucked the Targaryens first and the Baratheons later and how he destroyed Tywin and now Kevan and eventually whoever else is going to stand in his way.

It is pretty hard to argue about a varys interested in the welfare of the children when he planed to suport a dothriaki invasion to westeros. If drogo ever led his dothriaki to westeros the children would be the ones to suffer most.

I think that varys wants a blackfyre on the throne, but he has convinced himself that he raised a perfect king. And that perfect king will be much better for the people than anyone else. And he is willing to do anyhting to see that happen.

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1 hour ago, divica said:

It is pretty hard to argue about a varys interested in the welfare of the children when he planed to suport a dothriaki invasion to westeros. If drogo ever led his dothriaki to westeros the children would be the ones to suffer most.

Not if the point of that invasion was just to topple the Baratheon regime in a surgical strike and install Viserys III or Aegon on the Iron Throne. KL is close to the coast, and there is no indication they would have wanted to invade in a manner that would involve the Dothraki rampaging the countryside.

It is still somewhat of a silly idea that Dany would do that once she arrives. She, too, would land at KL and take the Iron Throne, not say, land in Dorne or the Vale or the West and then make her way to KL.

You also see that kind of strategy with Aegon - he landed in the Stormlands, rather close to KL, meaning the kind of damage his conquest of the Iron Throne is going to cause might be absolutely minimal.

But it also pretty clear that that the line about the children doesn't mean 'all children' but is a metaphor about the future generations of Westeros, those who would profit from the rule of the good and just king Varys thinks Aegon is going to be.

1 hour ago, divica said:

I think that varys wants a blackfyre on the throne, but he has convinced himself that he raised a perfect king. And that perfect king will be much better for the people than anyone else. And he is willing to do anyhting to see that happen.

So far the only thing we know reasonably well that Aegon is the means to an end - a good king for all - not the end. And nothing indicates it is truly important for Varys from whom that king is descended.

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1 hour ago, divica said:

It is pretty hard to argue about a varys interested in the welfare of the children when he planed to suport a dothriaki invasion to westeros. If drogo ever led his dothriaki to westeros the children would be the ones to suffer most.

I think that varys wants a blackfyre on the throne, but he has convinced himself that he raised a perfect king. And that perfect king will be much better for the people than anyone else. And he is willing to do anyhting to see that happen.

Varys' end-justifies-the-means philosophy bodes ill for the righteousness of his cause.  Power corrupts, they say, but Varys does not need to worry about that because he is corrupt already.

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7 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Like some others, they are trying to build a better world. But I believe, one where the Blackfyres are replacing the Targaryens. Whatever the cost, chaos, war and Dothraki rampage if needed.

Which means that, whatever their high-flown and self-justifying rhetoric, they [Varys & Illyrio} are just two more unconscious minions of the Great Death God that seeks the maximum devastation of humanity in preparation for humanity's final defeat in the Long Winter.

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17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Not if the point of that invasion was just to topple the Baratheon regime in a surgical strike and install Viserys III or Aegon on the Iron Throne. KL is close to the coast, and there is no indication they would have wanted to invade in a manner that would involve the Dothraki rampaging the countryside.

It is still somewhat of a silly idea that Dany would do that once she arrives. She, too, would land at KL and take the Iron Throne, not say, land in Dorne or the Vale or the West and then make her way to KL.

You also see that kind of strategy with Aegon - he landed in the Stormlands, rather close to KL, meaning the kind of damage his conquest of the Iron Throne is going to cause might be absolutely minimal.

But it also pretty clear that that the line about the children doesn't mean 'all children' but is a metaphor about the future generations of Westeros, those who would profit from the rule of the good and just king Varys thinks Aegon is going to be.

You do know what would happen in kl if drogo conquered it right?

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And similar situations.

In adition, wasn't the plan to weaken the baratheon dinasty in order to make it easier for aegon to take the thone? So there would be plenty of war in several places.

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

So far the only thing we know reasonably well that Aegon is the means to an end - a good king for all - not the end. And nothing indicates it is truly important for Varys from whom that king is descended.

however he did plot against rhaegar's plan to depose his father and has invested a lot in faegon. I am not saying that varys hungers for a blackfyre on the throne, but it is evident that he doesn't care what he has to do to put faegon on the throne. 

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12 minutes ago, divica said:

You do know what would happen in kl if drogo conquered it right?

Slaves for everybody! special promotion.

Rape as many as you can in today's special event.

And similar situations.

That wasn't actually the plan. Remember, the original deal was that Drogo give Viserys some of his men. There was no plan to take the entire khalasar to Westeros. This was only something that came about after Viserys' death when Drogo vowed to put his son on the Iron Throne. And even then we cannot really assume that Drogo wanted to rampage all of Westeros ... he just wanted to punish the people who tried to murder his wife and his unborn son.

12 minutes ago, divica said:

In adition, wasn't the plan to weaken the baratheon dinasty in order to make it easier for aegon to take the thone? So there would be plenty of war in several places.

But war that would and did happen regardless whether Varys wanted it or not ... as the War of the Five Kings demonstrated. Even Littlefinger only fueled the fires of war, he didn't cause it. He nudged the Starks and Lannisters along, but neither he nor Varys had anything to do with Stannis', Renly's or Balon's ambitions. Nor those of the Tyrells and the Martells.

Varys basically wants to use the influence the wars that are coming so his ideal king ends up on top in the end and creates a lasting peace.

There could have been a lasting peace, too, one imagines, after Robert's Rebellion, if Robert had been a worthy and competent king. But he wasn't. So merely fifteen years after his big war another breaks out that's actually much worse than the Rebellion.

12 minutes ago, divica said:

however he did plot against rhaegar's plan to depose his father and has invested a lot in faegon. I am not saying that varys hungers for a blackfyre on the throne, but it is evident that he doesn't care what he has to do to put faegon on the throne. 

We don't know what exactly Varys did do around the time of the Harrenhal tourney or why he advised Aerys II to go there. Could be to cool things down ... could also have been to help Rhaegar's cause by showing how mad the Mad King had actually become.

Chances are pretty good that if Aerys hadn't been at Harrenhal and Rhaegar had tried convince the lords there to move against his father that there would have been another bloody war - one between Rhaegar's followers and those of his father. Because Mad King or not, very few people would have supported a son who wanted to depose his father.

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19 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I believe that GRRM specifically says in an SSM somewhere that Doran married Mellario for love.  But of course, Princely schemer that he was, I'm sure he had a general awareness that a secret marriage alliance with the Blackfyres might possibly be leveraged, in future, for influence with the Golden Company. 

Allegiances can shift over time, and Dorne is hardly unwavering in its allegiance to the Iron Throne.  With the male line of the Blackfyres wiped out, there was no longer any particular need for Doran to regard the surviving female Blackfyre descendants as bitter enemies.  And again, GRRM did say that Doran married Mellario for love.

But it is curious you mentioned the Yronwoods, as they are involved in the fostering of Quentyn.  There seems no particular reason to suppose that any Yronwoods would need to be in on any deception.  But, based on what you are telling me, it sounds as though even if some Yronwoods did know that Doran had swapped his nephew with his Blackfyre son and was plotting to put his Blackfyre son on the Ion Throne in Aegon's place, they might not necessarily object.

Other than the odd customs of Norvosi noblewomen, from the World Book, I can't think of anything at the moment.

Like what?  And do you have a better theory for Lemore's identity?

Surely you don't think Griff, Young Griff, and Lemore have spent the last 10 years on The Shy Maid, at the river crossing halfway between Pentos and Norvos.  And how could someone in Norvos "keep an eye" on them, without their visiting each other and spending time in each other's company.  They have to be in the same place now and then anyhow, so why can't they be the same person?

As far as I understand you propose that Doran married Mellario knowing that she is a Blackfyre, with the hope that it could be beneficial at some point. But Doran's sister is destined to become Queen of the 7K, as a Targaryen. Marrying a Blackfyre could only be anti-political, even absurd by Westerosi standards.  Perhaps Doran managed to make the parentage seem unimportant somehow. But neither Arianne, nor Areo ever recall in their monologue such a lineage, and Arianne is well aware of the Blackfyre history. So the only possibility is that Mellario was a secret Blackfyre, and Doran resigned himself to never reveal that. But all that does not feel natural.

Or perhaps Doran never knew she was a Blackfyre. Norvosi highborn have a Valyrian pedigree, so Blackfyre blood could be there unnoticed. I would suppose Mellario left Dorne for Norvos with Quentyn, after agreeing with Doran that their son would be raised as Aegon. Note that neither of them was present in for the meeting of the four conspirators (Varys, Illyrio, Toyne, Connington), so you would have to guess that one of them perhaps Toyne, represented Dorne. Conveniently, we know nothing about Toyne and can imagine anything about him. In that configuration, it's still possible that Doran initiated the whole plan, but without being aware of the Blackfyre angle that Mellario kept to herself, and that was used to get the Golden Company onboard. I don't see why this couldn't work. It is not necessary for my theory below, but it doesn't contradict it. But we have more fanfiction than evidence here.

In any configuration, I do not clearly see why Varys and Illyrio would support the plan and whether they are aware of Dorne's implication. Well I do not see clearly many things: who are the half-maester, Lemore (my best guess is unoriginal: Ashara Dayne), even Duck and many members of the Golden Company, especially Toyne. It's not clear to me either to what extent the Shy Maid traveled. You can read my thoughts on the Yronwoods in the link above. But my conclusions are not clear about them.

If I try to argue that Mellario can not be Lemore, we are set for a long back and forth. I suppose you know already well the arguments. As for Dorne's involvement in the Shy Maid operation, beside the possible Ashara Dayne, Ysilla and Yandry might have served as watchers, informants (for Dorne) and preceptors (for Young Griff). So Mellario is not needed on the Shy Maid.

Here is the essence of my theory: Doran has enough with the Targaryens. He is fundamentally nostalgic of the Rhoynar civilization (he did travel on the Rhoyne at least once) and he made sure that his son would see what the dragons did, and what was destroyed. Ysilla and Yandry are there to make the Prince's education just as much as the other preceptors. Don't believe me? Read Varys' speech again:

“He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them.”

(Epilogue, ADwD)

Let's pause at half-time. This fits closely with what we have seen of Young Griff's education aboard the Shy Maid. This is the desirable education of an enlightened lord of the Seven Kingdoms, while not particularly the education of a Targaryen prince. You would presume that the Targaryen part would come next.  Let Lord Varys continue.

“He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

(Epilogue, ADwD)

What? Fisherfolk, swum in rivers, mended nets, washed his own clothes, fish and cook? Everything revolves around rivers. Nothing about "Blood and Fire", and nothing about dragons. This is the existence of a Rhoynar commoner, not of a Targaryen prince. Why on earth would you educate a Targaryen prince like a Rhoynar commoner, like an orphan of the Greenblood? Even the omens come from turtles.

« We are blessed,” Ysilla was crying loudly, as tears streamed down her face. “We are blessed, we are blessed.”

Duck was hooting, and Young Griff too. Haldon came out on deck to learn the cause of the commotion … but too late. The giant turtle had vanished below the water once again. “What was the cause of all that noise?” the Halfmaester asked.

“A turtle,” said Tyrion. “A turtle bigger than this boat.”

“It was him,” cried Yandry. “The Old Man of the River.”

And why not? Tyrion grinned. Gods and wonders always appear, to attend the birth of kings. »

(Tyrion 4, ADwD)

Isn't it wonderful that the Old Man of the River, a Rhoynish god, celebrate a Targaryen king? 

I planned to write a thorough elaboration of all this theory years ago. But there was no way to make it reasonably complete. But I would certainly like to hear feedback on this outline. I came to these boards yesterday night for the first time in years out of boredom. It is your mention of the switch that incited me to post.

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27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

As far as I understand you propose that Doran married Mellario knowing that she is a Blackfyre, with the hope that it could be beneficial at some point.

Well, again, he married her for love, because GRRM says so.  But again, that does not prevent him from calculating how the alliance can be maneuvered to his advantage.

27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

But Doran's sister is destined to become Queen of the 7K, as a Targaryen. Marrying a Blackfyre could only be anti-political, even absurd by Westerosi standards. 

Well, then, I guess he did it for love, and wisely calculated how to maneuver the situation to his advantage by keeping her Blackfyre connections secret.

27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Or perhaps Doran never knew she was a Blackfyre.

Possible, sure.  But since GRRM says he married her for love, we need hardly assume so.  He might have known what he was getting into, and decided to do it anyway.

27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Norvosi highborn have a Valyrian pedigree, so Blackfyre blood could be there unnoticed.

Sure.  For that reason, as well as the shaved heads and wigs thing, which apparently all the Norvosi noblewomen do.

27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

I would suppose Mellario left Dorne for Norvos with Quentyn, after agreeing with Doran that their son would be raised as Aegon.

That's one plausible way to do it, sure.

27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Note that neither of them was present in for the meeting of the four conspirators (Varys, Illyrio, Toyne, Connington), so you would have to guess that one of them perhaps Toyne, represented Dorne.

There would be plans involving Aegon.  Then there would be plans involving Quentyn.  Finally, there is a plan to swap the two boys.  Connington would have no knowledge or involvement in any baby-swapping scheme.  He, at least, thinks Aegon is Aegon.

27 minutes ago, Bran Vras said:

Conveniently, we know nothing about Toyne and can imagine anything about him.

Okay.

 

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

n that configuration, it's still possible that Doran initiated the whole plan, but without being aware of the Blackfyre angle that Mellario kept to herself, and that was used to get the Golden Company onboard. I don't see why this couldn't work. It is not necessary for my theory below, but it doesn't contradict it.

Sure, maybe.

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

But we have more fanfiction than evidence here.

Not sure what you mean.  The theory, at its core, combines two simple propositions:  that Young Griff is really Quentyn; and that Frog is really Aegon.  I can point to clues that seem to nudge us towards these hypotheses.  Each of these propositions will probably be exposed as either true or false when and if the final books are released.  We can, in the meantime, write elaborate fan fic surrounding the propositions.   The elaborate fan fiction will almost certainly be wrong, but one or both of the simple propositions could well turn out to be correct.

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

In any configuration, I do not clearly see why Varys and Illyrio would support the plan and whether they are aware of Dorne's implication.

Well then, maybe I should just leave that to GRRM lest you accuse me of writing fan fic. 

But it could be (for instance) that Varys knows only that the real Aegon was smuggled out of KL, and does not know about the later swap.  In that case his motives for supporting Aegon (whatever they may be) are the same as they always were. 

Or perhaps Varys knows about the swap and this is relevant to his motives.  Varys either knows or does not know.  The core theory can be correct either way.

Ditto Illyrio.  Maybe he does not know about the swap.  Or maybe Mellario is the daughter of his Blackfyre wife Serra and he knows perfectly well that he is plotting to put his own grandson on the Iron Throne.  Or not.  

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

Well I do not see clearly many things: who are the half-maester, Lemore (my best guess is unoriginal: Ashara Dayne), even Duck and many members of the Golden Company, especially Toyne. It's not clear to me either to what extent the Shy Maid traveled. You can read my thoughts on the Yronwoods in the link above. But my conclusions are not clear about them.

I don't see any need to speculate too deeply about things we cannot know.  Lemore being Mellario is obviously a close fit with the theory.

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

If I try to argue that Mellario can not be Lemore, we are set for a long back and forth. I suppose you know already well the arguments.

Let's just say I am unconvinced by the arguments I know about.

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

As for Dorne's involvement in the Shy Maid operation, beside the possible Ashara Dayne, Ysilla and Yandry might have served as watchers, informants (for Dorne) and preceptors (for Young Griff). So Mellario is not needed on the Shy Maid.

Are we still considering this in the context of the fQuentyn theory?  Because one of the clues supporting the fQuentyn theory is that Mellario did not want to be separated from Quentyn.  We are rather throwing that away, if we decide that they are going to be separated anyway, and that Mellario will be satisfied by informants sending reports.  I obviously cannot prove that it is absolutely necessary to have Mellario on the Shy Maid.  GRRM will do what he likes.  But he has placed a mystery lady there, and you prefer her to be Ashara.  By what logic is Ashara Dayne somehow more needed on the Shy Maid than Mellario?

If one is going to concede (as you seem to do) that Mellario may be involved in the fAegon plot, then why on earth would you leave her in Norvos receiving reports by email, just so we can have another mystery woman to speculate about?  It would make more sense to object to the whole idea and not involve her at all.

1 hour ago, Bran Vras said:

Isn't it wonderful that the Old Man of the River, a Rhoynish god, celebrate a Targaryen king? 

Well, as far as the Rhoynish connection goes, Mellario lives on a tributary of the Rhyone, and is married to the Prince of Dorne, who has Rhoynar heritage.  Ashara has no such connection.  The Daynes are not even Rhoynar.

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