Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming

[Mlle. Zabzie]

But I am still looking forward to the summer!  Continue....

[Fragile Bird]

I hate to say this, but the mutants aren’t coming, they’re here!

[Mlle. Zabzie]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I hate to say this, but the mutants aren’t coming, they’re here!

Those aren’t mutants anymore.  They are reality.  More will follow.  They are coming...they are coming...

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

But I am still looking forward to the summer!  Continue....

This is a most excellent title, MZ! 

Nevertheless, we still are looking forward to summer, because, how can we not?  I remember how slowly it happened, but that things seemed to stabilize personally (us being more fortunate than so many ... and the pressure of cooking for so many starting to lighten) to a certain degree with summer in my heart, soul, mind.  To have all go kablooey again around November, realizing what we were in for.

And this summer it's the variants for sure.  It turns out that not everyone in city and state government, and certainly not the health professionals, agree that the NYC mayor can just arbitrarily decree the whole city can open on July 1st  with NO RESTRICTIONS WHATSOEVER -- which I did hear him tell us, and I did hear him say that includes wearing masks inside enclosed spaces.  He can't do that all by himself, thank lordessa.  As one of the health professionals said, which anybody like us already thought of, what's what on April 30 -- it's a long time to July 1st, with Memorial Day inbetween, and India and Brasil and all the rest going on too.  It's just insane.  We have seen over and over in country after country, and here, state after state, city after city, when it goes let 'er rip.  The bodies pile up.

And more and more kids are getting infected and seriously sick everywhere.

 

[Fragile Bird]

As @Padraig mentioned in the last thread, Pfizer will start shipping vaccine to Canada from their plant in Michigan on May 3. This is good news for Europe, since there will be more Pfizer for Europe (2 M per week, or maybe 3 M per week) and good news for Canada, since the finicky vaccine won’t have to travel as far. As I have previously mentioned, experts way back in December were saying vaccinations would drop off sharply once 100 M were vaccinated. The US is awash in vaccine, it’s short of arms.

And in other news, Canada is withholding administering the J&J we’ve just received because it came from the Emergent plant in the US, not from Europe. Funny, Americans have been using European J&J up until now, are they using any American made J&J at all? I’ve seen reports that there are +100 M doses at the plant. We’re going to do more safety tests on the vaccine batch before using it. All the J&J at the plant has to go through extra safety testing. Just think of the difference 100M single use doses could make to India, or Brazil, or any other hard hit country.

[Padraig]

7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

And in other news, Canada is withholding administering the J&J we’ve just received because it came from the Emergent plant in the US, not from Europe. Funny, Americans have been using European J&J up until now, are they using any American made J&J at all?

This story was corrected so that, it wasn't that the J&J vaccine was made in the Emergent plant, but that one of its active ingredients were.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/health-canada-holding-j-j-covid-19-vaccines-over-possible-quality-control-issue-1.5409817

I do believe that J&J is using a Catalent factory also in the US for production (and fill + finish).  The article says that the Canadians doses came from outside the US (so presumably Europe).  I wonder will Europe be annoyed that Emergent is being used for some ingredients?

It was mentioned in Ireland that J&J deliveries are being delayed because of the issue with Emergent (although that's an easy excuse).  I suppose J&J are trying to supply the US, Europe and Canada (and maybe a few other countries like South Africa) with 1 less factory than they expected.  So inevitable delays.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Combating the ignorance that covid isn't a threat to people under 40.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/01/992148299/covid-doesnt-discriminate-by-age-serious-cases-on-the-rise-in-younger-adults

 

Hospitals filled with younger, sicker people

Across the country, the influx of younger patients with COVID-19 has startled clinicians who describe hospital beds filled with patients, many of whom appear sicker than what was seen during previous waves of the pandemic.

"A lot of them are requiring ICU care," says Dr. Michelle Barron, head of infection prevention and control at UCHealth, one of Colorado's large hospital systems, as compared with earlier in the pandemic.

[Zorral]

Good luck with that education, DireWolfSpirit  However as no one has been able to educate the determined out of their misbegotten conviction herd immunity can be achieved without at least 95% being vaccinated, one fears this too, cannot be educated out of the true believers.  

~~~~~~~~~~

Neither nationally nor state-wide nor city-wide have we reached even 50% with a single dose of vaccine, much less 50% fully vaccinated.  Stubborn refusniks or the sheer complexity of getting injections for so many?

There are only 9 states and one territory in which, by the NY Times criteria, the at least one dose category has broken past 50%.  NY and NYC aren't among them.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

Quote

 

"The table below includes states, territories, federal agencies and three countries with special agreements with the United States: Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.

People that have received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine are included in counts for those with “at least one dose” and those “fully vaccinated.”

 

https://gothamist.com/news/more-third-new-yorkers-now-fully-vaccinated-cuomo-says

Quote

 

'More than a third of the state’s residents are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19, including more than 3 million New York City residents, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Saturday.

The state recorded 1.2 million vaccine doses administered this week in New York, with 159,863 doses given in the past 24 hours, Cuomo said, calling the progress “steady and strong.” The state said 34.6% of all New Yorkers have completed their vaccinations, while 46.3% of New Yorkers have gotten at least one vaccine dose. In New York City, 4,215,597 people have received at least one dose, while 3,084,307 people have been fully vaccinated.

 

It's a quite nice day here.  The sidewalks are packed, and so are the streets.  People are dining as if they've never eaten before -- while drinking even more.  Everyone seems in a pretty good mood, with the exception of cars carrying 6 or more young males, no masking, dealing with traffic and particularly the intersections where they must stop, and also allow for pedestrians to cross.  They make known with their aggressive hostile choices of music to blast out and the things they yell at those on the sidewalks and crossing the street (with the light) just how they are being treated badly.  The rest of us have no right to be interfering with their progress.

But, you know, one wonders....  Without all of us here on the sidewalks and crossing the streets, would these lummoxes even be driving around in my neighborhood, where things are, you know, happening, because, you know, all the people who are in the way of the auto lummoxes. Not only do these lummoxes not live in this neighborhood, they don't live in New York, city or state.  License plates tell the story.

[Zorral]

Second post but this article about why so many in this Tennessee  Appalachian community refuse to be vaccinated, coincides so much with the HBO series, set in rural small town Pennsylvania, Mare of Easttown, featuring Kate Winslet, as the town's police detective.  Even as I began watching the series last week, which time location is prior to pandemic, it seems, I wondered which characters would get the virus, get sick, deathly ill, die, wear masks, refuse vaccines, beat up people who wear masks and socially distance. Just like wonder how many of them voted for orange chaos demon.  Though none that is part of the series' narrative -- at least at this point! -- Easttown is that kind of community.

  Ya gotta think of Hillbilly Elegy author, J.D. Vance too -- who is a denier and trumper. and thinks he can run for senator from Ohio. His book was also a film (the one for which Glenn Close was nominated for Oscar this year), like fictional author character, Richard Ryan's book was, in Mare of Easttown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/30/health/covid-vaccine-hesitancy-white-republican.html

 

[HoodedCrow]

I have two friends who are anti vax. One has an eclectic personality and wants to wait till a certain plant based shot is ready, ( she is in denial for economic reasons)and the other shocked me to bits with her decision “ as of now.” That friend has a homeopath problem, IMHO. Her own kids( one a doctor) are saying that they won’t visit her if she doesn’t get vaxxed. I had just finished saying I was very pro vax, then she jumped in and told me that she didn’t want to talk about it.  Nice clear boundary, but she couldn’t have missed my shock. I won’t help her if I pushed, but I would lose her.

Me, I had the Pfizer  and then had a slightly elevated but still normal temp and I had increased fatigue. DH had AZ. Looked tuckered, but not too bad. Now I tell my health care providers that I have had one shot. Hey Michigan, We’ll buy your Pfizer:)

These are people I love. I feel like going all Jack the vaxxer.

Its not a bad idea to take your temperature every day. ( establish a normal range) Then you will feel like you’ve done something. By charting it, you may see if you get a slight fever. If you are asymptomatic, it won’t help. It is, I have found, reassuring to other people, even if all you are saying really is that your on it, and your temp is normal today. Social distance, wear a mask, wash your hands, get vaxxed:)

 

 

 

 

[Heartofice]

9 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Combating the ignorance that covid isn't a threat to people under 40.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/01/992148299/covid-doesnt-discriminate-by-age-serious-cases-on-the-rise-in-younger-adults

 

Hospitals filled with younger, sicker people

Across the country, the influx of younger patients with COVID-19 has startled clinicians who describe hospital beds filled with patients, many of whom appear sicker than what was seen during previous waves of the pandemic.

"A lot of them are requiring ICU care," says Dr. Michelle Barron, head of infection prevention and control at UCHealth, one of Colorado's large hospital systems, as compared with earlier in the pandemic.

Hmmm.. so let me get this straight. You are suggesting that after old people become vaccinated.. the percentage of old people who end up in hospital drops and so the percentage of patients in hospitals becomes younger? Wow.. mind blowing information there.
----

Eta. Going back to previous point, are young people getting sick? 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55586994

 

Quote

And there has been a steep rise in the numbers of people in their mid-40s to mid-60s becoming seriously ill with Covid and being admitted to intensive care units.

There has also been a slight increase among younger adults too, although fewer than one in 100,000 was critically ill with Covid in December.

In contrast, children under 17 make up a very small percentage of those admitted to hospital with Covid - around 1% - and it is extremely unlikely they will need intensive care treatment.

The ages of people who have died with Covid-19 since June show the huge impact on older age groups and the rarity of a Covid death in the under-30s.

But there have been some during the pandemic. Twenty-seven deaths have occurred among under-19s who tested positive for Covid-19, according to NHS England, and 317 among 20 to 39-year-olds.

More than 80% had an underlying health condition, such as heart disease or type 2 diabetes, which may have increased their risk.

Dr Nick Scriven, a former president of the Society for Acute Medicine, says he has seen a patient in their 20s requiring oxygen treatment but most were in their mid-40s, 50s and above - and the most seriously ill were over 50.

"They are not very different ages to the first wave," he says, although people are surviving for longer and fewer are being put on ventilators.

So, depends on your definition of 'young'. But the headline from NPR that ' The virus does not discriminate' is an outright and bare faced lie. It does discriminate by age, massively. We've known that since the beginning and it hasn't changed. Just because more people got the virus and so a certain percentage ended up in hospital doesn't really mean it has really changed very much in who it affects the most. 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-are-hospital-patients-getting-younger-12198565

 

Quote

Does the data tell the same story? Are coronavirus patients now younger? And are younger people now at greater risk of dying than previously?

More people overall are being admitted to hospital now compared to last spring and the average age of patients has reduced.

The data suggests the 18-54 and 55-64 age groups now make up a greater proportion of patients than previously.

This potentially puts the NHS under greater strain as these patients tend to remain in hospital for longer than the oldest age group.

 

But, while more patients are younger, the risk to all ages of becoming seriously ill has remained similar.

If you consider the hospital admission rate per population, people aged over 85 are still most likely to need hospital treatment for COVID-19, followed by those aged between 75 and 84.

However, the rate for younger age groups has increased slightly, but not significantly, in recent weeks.

Research from Imperial College London has found the risk doubles for roughly every eight years of ageing, from 0.1% for people under 40 to 5% for people aged over 80.

 

[Arakan]

Looking at vaccine statistics as of now, it seems that roughly 50% of the population in the US and the UK got at least their first shot, Western Europe (Germany, France) roughly 4 weeks behind. In Germany the Quote is 28% received at least their first shot. 
 

Considering this and considering the huge emergency in India it’s really time to rethink. I mean look at the figures: India is now at 400.000 infections and 3,300 deaths daily (per 7day average). And those are only the official figures. It is estimated that the real death toll is 2-3 times higher. Which is very plausible given India‘s infrastructure and rural setup. 
 

The ethical question now is: do we in the West need to vaccinate every 18year old plus (people with basically no health risk) just to „open up“ (which means for many simple entertainment time) while on the other side of the world 10,000 people die daily as of now (and this figure will rise in the upcoming weeks). I mean until end of May conservative projections show 6,000 daily deaths (only official figures). 

[Arakan]

Just watching CNN. 
44% of Republicans won’t get vaccinated according to a poll. Failing for words. The US have a big education job to do. Since Reagan it’s been downhill. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Arakan said:

Considering this and considering the huge emergency in India it’s really time to rethink. I mean look at the figures: India is now at 400.000 infections and 3,300 deaths daily (per 7day average). And those are only the official figures. It is estimated that the real death toll is 2-3 times higher. Which is very plausible given India‘s infrastructure and rural setup. 

I've read/heard medical professionals and scientists estimate that on a given day it could be ten times as bad as being reported. I said early on that it would be next to impossible to get accurate counts from places like India and Brazil if things got out of control, albeit for very different reasons.

2 hours ago, Arakan said:

Just watching CNN. 
44% of Republicans won’t get vaccinated according to a poll. Failing for words. The US have a big education job to do. Since Reagan it’s been downhill. 

And fewer than 25% of Republicans think Biden was legitimately elected.  People outside of the U.S. need to keep that in mind when criticizing our government's actions which makes your ethical hypothetical problematic. Because yes, ethically we should be more worried about global vaccination than making sure everyone here under 30 is fully vaccinated, but to advocate for such a policy would be political suicide and would sweep into office a bunch of Republican asshats that would never be willing to vaccinate a foreigner for free. 

[Clueless Northman]

2 hours ago, Arakan said:

The ethical question now is: do we in the West need to vaccinate every 18year old plus (people with basically no health risk) just to „open up“ (which means for many simple entertainment time) while on the other side of the world 10,000 people die daily as of now

Sending mass vaccines to India, Brazil and some other hard-hit places would make sense and would be the good thing to do.

Now, the catch is that there's just no way that most Western countries and their people would allow it, if US and UK go along to fully vaccinate their people. It's basically a prisoners' dilemma: either the West as a whole slows down its own vaccination process to help others, or the West as a whole will go for 100% cover. EU deciding to stop its campaign to help India, while British and American people, teens included, get vaccinated, is political (and to an extent economic) suicide. Of course, this won't stop UK and US media to call to stop "vaccine nationalism" and th "share the vaccines", once they've taken their full share of them.

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, Arakan said:

The ethical question now is: do we in the West need to vaccinate every 18year old plus (people with basically no health risk) just to „open up“ (which means for many simple entertainment time) while on the other side of the world 10,000 people die daily as of now (and this figure will rise in the upcoming weeks).

The answer is clearly no.  I don't see any signs of a radical changes in approach.  The US has started to send vaccines to neighbouring countries, now that there isn't the same demand in the US, but I can imagine such countries will remains its next focus.  The EU has always allowed exports but Japan is the biggest beneficary (not more afflicated countries) and when demand begins to fall in the EU, I imagine it will focus more on neighbouring countries also.  Some of those neighbours will really require those vaccines but its really more of the same (protecting your borders).

ourworldindata is saying that cases worldwide has actually flattened but there are 2 very different stories there.  US, Canada, most of Europe is seeing declines now but India (and a number of other countries) certainly isn't.

Weirdly, 3 of the worst 5 countries right now for cases, have all had decent vaccination campaigns (Maldives, Seychelles and Bahrain).  I imagine that's to do with their speed when remove restrictions.  (While Cyprus and Hungary are still the worst afflicted countries, if improving)

5 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Eta. Going back to previous point, are young people getting sick? 

But the question was based on whether they should be vaccinated.  There is a risk, but admittedly small, with kids getting COVID.  There is a risk, but admittedly very small, around kids getting a vaccine.  The biggest fear is around some potential side effect that may emerge because of the vaccine.  Hard to quantify but it can't be ignored.  On the other hand, there are also side effects that may emerge from kids getting COVID itself.  Especially, if this thing keeps mutating.

But we do know that vaccinating kids should help reduce the spread of COVID.  It will protect others.  You can optimistically say that it may not be required but that is a very optimistic scenario.  (i.e. it actually could work, in theory, in some countries with very high vaccine uptake but I don't think most countries will fall into that bracket.  So unless those countries want to close their borders, they are really going to need kids vaccinated).

[Fez]

Ended up with little in the way of side effects from the Pfizer vaccine. My arm hurt like hell for about a day, and I woke up the next morning kinda fatigued and with some full body muscle aches that were gone by lunch time. And that was it. Compared to the stories I heard, it was kind of a let down.

Though it does track with this new study out of the UK: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00224-3/fulltext

Despite what it has sounded like from stories and social media, only 22% of people have had systematic side effects after the second dose of the Pfizer shot. Over 68% of people did have local side effects, primarily that arm soreness, so that's common. But all the flu-like symptoms are actually rare.

[Fragile Bird]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Ended up with little in the way of side effects from the Pfizer vaccine. My arm hurt like hell for about a day, and I woke up the next morning kinda fatigued and with some full body muscle aches that were gone by lunch time. And that was it. Compared to the stories I heard, it was kind of a let down.

Though it does track with this new study out of the UK: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00224-3/fulltext

Despite what it has sounded like from stories and social media, only 22% of people have had systematic side effects after the second dose of the Pfizer shot. Over 68% of people did have local side effects, primarily that arm soreness, so that's common. But all the flu-like symptoms are actually rare.

I wouldn’t call 22% rare!

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

I wouldn’t call 22% rare!

Not in the grand scheme of things, sure. But when basically 100% people on social media with vaccine posts are trying to get bravery points by talking a big game about what they're going through, it's a much smaller number.

Also, a few weeks ago there were stories about how getting side effects was a sign that your immune system was working properly; with the implication that if you weren't getting side effects maybe your immune system isn't so good. But if only 22% are actually getting those side effects, it would seem that's not the case.

[Heartofice]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

But the question was based on whether they should be vaccinated.  There is a risk, but admittedly small, with kids getting COVID.  There is a risk, but admittedly very small, around kids getting a vaccine.  The biggest fear is around some potential side effect that may emerge because of the vaccine.  Hard to quantify but it can't be ignored.  On the other hand, there are also side effects that may emerge from kids getting COVID itself.  Especially, if this thing keeps mutating.

But we do know that vaccinating kids should help reduce the spread of COVID.  It will protect others.  You can optimistically say that it may not be required but that is a very optimistic scenario.  (i.e. it actually could work, in theory, in some countries with very high vaccine uptake but I don't think most countries will fall into that bracket.  So unless those countries want to close their borders, they are really going to need kids vaccinated).

Well I was firstly responding to the claim that it is "ignorant" to think that Covid isn't a threat to people under 40. It isn't ignorant to say it is statistically not very much of a threat to that group, because it isn't, and that hasn't really changed.

Then I previously said I wouldn't get too angry at anyone who didn't want to vaccinate their children. I think it is a totally understandable position. We are all at the moment expecting that there are no long term side effects for the vaccines, and there doesn't appear to be much evidence that there are. But at the same time the mRNA vaccines are pretty new technology, some level of caution around that would be expected. 

Vaccinating children is really not about protecting the children from the virus because the risks to them are actually very small. You're right that the question becomes do you need to vaccinate children to achieve 'herd immunity'. I guess the answer is maybe. That is whether herd immunity is your goal or not. It also depends whether elimination is your goal or not (it not a very realistic goal), and also how many people in your country are taking the vaccine.