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Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming


Mlle. Zabzie

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3 hours ago, Leap said:

This is interesting, because I think I took the exact opposite lesson from the pandemic so far, although perhaps this is just a fundamental difference between island/continental nations. In the UK we have had some level of restrictions in place for over a year now. We have had some short periods of severe lockdown, but by and large the restrictions have been moderate. I would much rather have extended our severe lockdown from Spring of last year by a few weeks/months in the hopes of eradicating the virus completely, like NZ/Aus managed. 

In the UK, we've sort of yo-yo'd between severe, mild and moderate restrictions (like a lot of places). Our first severe lockdown was about 6 weeks, and we managed to get the daily cases down to triple digits for most of the Summer. It's really hard not to think that if we had just extended that first lockdown for a few weeks/months, we could have reduced cases to zero, avoided the second and third waves, and an entire year of mixed restrictions. 

Living alone as I do, I'm probably more incentivised than most to favour this approach since the mild/moderate restrictions have broadly the same impact on my life as severe ones. But I have to think most people would prefer a short, sharp shock than the drawn out misery of the last year. The key failing has been the belief that a small number of cases can be handled, the reality is that anything other than zero is unworkable in the long term without having vaccinated everyone.

As an island, one severe lockdown to eradicate the virus could be the right course of action and provide sustainable results. But I don’t think that’s doable for the mainland. We essentially didn’t have a first wave while 2020 spring was the strictest lockdown ever. Then we opened up and had 5-20 cases per day for two months. During that time people traveled, partied and went on vacations. By early September we had three times the daily cases we did on the worst days of April. There’s also quite a workflow coming and going on a daily basis at every border, so it’s impossible to control country to country spread. 

Also living alone, and being an introvert, I care far more about the safety of people than about parties and going to bars. That’s not to say I don’t miss a summer happy hour or brunch or a cozy afternoon in a cafe. But I’m still heavily pro restriction.

3 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I'm not sure if moderate restrictions work in our countries though. I mean as soon as the first lockdown ended a significant number of people started ignoring all the rules around here. At least with a drastic lockdown stuff like pubs ges closed.

Fair point. Neither moderation nor compliance is our strong suit. Restrictions are mostly ignored if not downright spat in the face.  The first thing people did last autumn was get fake papers to get past curfew rules, and several restaurants ran holiday get-togethers through the staff entrance. 

You know what, maybe sharp strict lockdowns are the way to go. Who can tell. I know I can’t wait for all the books and docu series about covid to find out what the hell is going down. 

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I was curious about Novavax for a while.  Previously it was expected to get approval by the end of April but it hasn't even filed for approval.  And now it suggests that it wouldn't do so until June.  The delay is linked to the complexity around manufacturing.  It has never produced a drug before.

It's another blow to poor old COVAX.  Novavax is supposed to be a big supplier but nothing will be seen till July at least.

https://www.ft.com/content/95a28a60-12b7-4110-a769-99cf1e0af767

It is working away on a combined flu/COVID vaccine though, which is neat.

That means that Curevac may be the next Western company with an authorised vaccine.  But its another small company with dreams.  We'll see will it also run into trouble.  It is supposed to publish results this month.  So that will be a big indicator.

6 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

As an island, one severe lockdown to eradicate the virus could be the right course of action and provide sustainable results. But I don’t think that’s doable for the mainland.

Fair point.  Location is another huge factor.  Countries in the centre of Europe had major disadvantages.

An island getting to 0 COVID is clearly doable, but I do struggle to think that a European island could have maintained that.  You have to stop everyone from entering the country (except a token number, which you can quarantine).  It wouldn't have been easy to pull off.

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FDA Authorized Pfizer Biontech for 12-15 year olds on an emergency use basis.  This is great news and very encouraging for those of us in the states with younger children.  I’m hopeful they will be able to apply for the 2-11 cohort by the fall.

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9 hours ago, Padraig said:

Fair point.  Location is another huge factor.  Countries in the centre of Europe had major disadvantages.

An island getting to 0 COVID is clearly doable, but I do struggle to think that a European island could have maintained that.  You have to stop everyone from entering the country (except a token number, which you can quarantine).  It wouldn't have been easy to pull off.

I suppose it is. The fact that some of our border counties are the most infected - after the capital and its surrounding county obviously. (Admittedly there are like four counties that aren’t the capital or a border county because that’s the size of this place :lol: so once again who knows if this is a statistically relevant observation) 

No of course now. And the UK is quite the destination and a center of air traffic so it’s no more comparable to an island like Phuket than it is to mainland center Europe. 
 

anyway, sister’s getting a vaccine in about 5 minutes. And coincidentally so is my manager - although at a different station. I’m slightly worried but my brain knows that it’s unreasonable to assume there’s more than a 0.01% that she’ll experience irregular side effects. 

And we’re at 500 new cases today. Which is great. But we at 500 new cases per day in January too. Then the third wave happened. So I can’t say I want to rush out to celebrate.  In fact, all I want is to be able to visit my mum when she gets the second dose and for our dog to survive that long. 

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11 hours ago, Padraig said:

 

Fair point.  Location is another huge factor.  Countries in the centre of Europe had major disadvantages.

An island getting to 0 COVID is clearly doable, but I do struggle to think that a European island could have maintained that.  You have to stop everyone from entering the country (except a token number, which you can quarantine).  It wouldn't have been easy to pull off.

Not only do you have to stop the virus from entering again. I also think that you can only achieve zero covid, if it never was there. If it has started to diffuse into the community there will always be asymtomatic carriers, and then there are the cats and ferrets and whatnot. so you have to catch it at the beginning like New Zealand did.

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36 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

Not only do you have to stop the virus from entering again. I also think that you can only achieve zero covid, if it never was there. If it has started to diffuse into the community there will always be asymtomatic carriers, and then there are the cats and ferrets and whatnot. so you have to catch it at the beginning like New Zealand did.

It's possible to eliminate covid, but it requires extreme measures, like China style lockdown and quarantine.  They showed it was possible even after widespread infection, even in a non-island environment.  Less extreme measures might also work, but you need extremely high compliance by everyone, which we don't have.  

As bad as covid has been, it could have been worse.  Imagine a 5 to 10% fatality rate, or worse.  We say that a China style lockdown isn't possible in Europe, North America, and most of the world really, but it should be an option.  Is a two month severe lockdown OK if it saves millions of lives and allows the country or world to resume normal life?  Tens of millions lives?  100s millions of lives?  At some point, which is admittedly difficult to determine, I would be in favor of China style lockdowns.  

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1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

Not only do you have to stop the virus from entering again. I also think that you can only achieve zero covid, if it never was there. If it has started to diffuse into the community there will always be asymtomatic carriers, and then there are the cats and ferrets and whatnot. so you have to catch it at the beginning like New Zealand did.

The city of Melbourne, Australia managed to go from 500+ positive tests per day to zero (with thousands more asymptomatic / minimally symptomatic cases assumed in the community). It took a harsh 112 day lockdown, but it's doable.

Singapore has also dealt with reasonable sized outbreaks and managed effectively eliminate the virus.

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4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

And we’re at 500 new cases today. Which is great. But we at 500 new cases per day in January too. Then the third wave happened. So I can’t say I want to rush out to celebrate.  In fact, all I want is to be able to visit my mum when she gets the second dose and for our dog to survive that long. 

I remain cautiously optimistic.  We've been re-opening over the last 2 months and while cases haven't gone down that much since then, given it is a re-opening, the worry was that cases would go up.  And in fact, fatalities, people in ICU and hospitalisations have continued to fall significantly over those 2 months.  From a peak of 2000 in January, we are now at 117 COVID hospitalisations in total.

The vaccines are definitely making a considerable difference.  And it is very striking to see how nearly all countries in Europe have started to improve over the last 4 weeks.

Variants are a concern and you'd like to see more studies but these studies take time I suppose.  Initial analysis suggests we are ok at least.  It is a supply problem, not a vaccine efficiency problem.

Still, one can never be sure of anything when it comes to COVID!

I hope your sister comes through it easily.

2 hours ago, Mudguard said:

It's possible to eliminate covid, but it requires extreme measures, like China style lockdown and quarantine.  They showed it was possible even after widespread infection, even in a non-island environment.  Less extreme measures might also work, but you need extremely high compliance by everyone, which we don't have.  

As bad as covid has been, it could have been worse.  Imagine a 5 to 10% fatality rate, or worse.  We say that a China style lockdown isn't possible in Europe, North America, and most of the world really, but it should be an option.  Is a two month severe lockdown OK if it saves millions of lives and allows the country or world to resume normal life?  Tens of millions lives?  100s millions of lives?  At some point, which is admittedly difficult to determine, I would be in favor of China style lockdowns.  

I think this is right.

COVID has normalised a lot of things in the Western World.  Wearing masks?  (Sure, we may all stop wearing them when this is over but it should be a natural fallback if we have a major respiratory disease again.  And maybe people will start wearing them during flu season also).  Quarantines?  Didn't even some US States say you had to self-quarantine for 10 days if you came from out of state?  Ireland and UK started using hotels.  Loads of restrictions are now normal (even if some people complain).

Would we go as far as what China or Australia did?  As you say, if the fatality rate warrants it...

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2 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

The city of Melbourne, Australia managed to go from 500+ positive tests per day to zero (with thousands more asymptomatic / minimally symptomatic cases assumed in the community). It took a harsh 112 day lockdown, but it's doable.

Singapore has also dealt with reasonable sized outbreaks and managed effectively eliminate the virus.

I don't think it was feasible in Europe after February 2020 or so. For example, the very harsh Spanish and Italian lockdowns were never able to cut the transmission chains to a level where eradication seemed possible. Even if some countries tried even harder, the ones who didn't or those were measured failed would doom the others sooner or later. At that point you would have to choose between maintaining the Union or try manage the crisis.

Another possibility would have been a harsh lockdown amid summer 2020 where spread was quite minimal. This was also impossible to sell politically.

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2 hours ago, Mudguard said:

It's possible to eliminate covid, but it requires extreme measures, like China style lockdown and quarantine.  They showed it was possible even after widespread infection, even in a non-island environment. 

In China worked because the outbreak was regional and the rest of the country could provide assistance. It wasn't the case in most countries. I agree that it still requires high compliance.

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As bad as covid has been, it could have been worse.  Imagine a 5 to 10% fatality rate, or worse.  We say that a China style lockdown isn't possible in Europe, North America, and most of the world really, but it should be an option.  Is a two month severe lockdown OK if it saves millions of lives and allows the country or world to resume normal life?  Tens of millions lives?  100s millions of lives?  At some point, which is admittedly difficult to determine, I would be in favor of China style lockdowns.  

Well, one of the problems of COVID is the IFR is high enough to be pose a severe public health threat, but still low enough that the menace seem negligible at individual level, specially considering the age stratification.

My opinion is that health authorities and policy makers were either sleeping or were stupid/evil. The time for harsh measures was 24 Jan 2020 at the latest.

This was people with more knowledge were writing at that time

https://threader.app/thread/1220919589623803905

EDIT: An old article about the topic https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/03/why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-coronavirus.html

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

In China worked because the outbreak was regional and the rest of the country could provide assistance. It wasn't the case in most countries. I agree that it still requires high compliance.

Well, one of the problems of COVID is the IFR is high enough to be pose a severe public health threat, but still low enough that the menace seem negligible at individual level, specially considering the age stratification.

My opinion is that health authorities and policy makers were either sleeping or were stupid/evil. The time for harsh measures was 24 Jan 2020 at the latest.

This was people with more knowledge were writing at that time

https://threader.app/thread/1220919589623803905

I remember when in February 2020 it was discussed if it may be a good idea to stop flights from China. But most politicians said that would be really bad for economy and such an extreme measure is not warranted and also if one country stopped flights from china it would not help at all  and so on...

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

My opinion is that health authorities and policy makers were either sleeping or were stupid/evil. The time for harsh measures was 24 Jan 2020 at the latest.

Mostly Hubristic IMO - "that couldn't happen here" "we saw with SARS and MERS, these things happen over there, they never really make it here" "Proper modern health care will deal with this relatively easily, there's no point bankrupting ourselves on the off chance that it can't"

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1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

I remember when in February 2020 it was discussed if it may be a good idea to stop flights from China. But most politicians said that would be really bad for economy and such an extreme measure is not warranted and also if one country stopped flights from china it would not help at all  and so on...

Limited travel restriction like that wouldn't have worked anyway. If Germany had stopped flight from China but France (for example) didn't, it would have still entered Germany via France. Only a full border closure (for all travelers, from all destinations) would have worked, like in Vietnam: https://www.vox.com/22346085/covid-19-vietnam-response-travel-restrictions

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14 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Limited travel restriction like that wouldn't have worked anyway. If Germany had stopped flight from China but France (for example) didn't, it would have still entered Germany via France. Only a full border closure (for all travelers, from all destinations) would have worked, like in Vietnam: https://www.vox.com/22346085/covid-19-vietnam-response-travel-restrictions

Yeah, I agree. Full stop to air travel for one or two months. Trace all visitor from China and others with growing outbreaks (chinese and otherwise). It might have worked and save us of much pain. It might have not but it could have still delayed the first wave long enough to have better preparations in place. Air travel is still disrupted now, so... hardly any loss.

If glass candles existed....

but on the other hand people warned that this virus had all the landmarks of a pandemic one.

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Two provinces in Canada have announced they will no longer use AZ for first doses. Alberta came out first and Ontario, Canada's biggest province, announced it this afternoon. Ontario made the move out of caution. At first it looked like the rate of VITT was about 1 in 100,000, but a few more cases popped up and dropped the rate to 1 in 60,000, and outside of Ontario some provinces are seeing a rate of 1 in 55,000. Authorities have pointed out that UK data indicates the rate goes back up to 1 in a million for second doses, so it looks like future doses will only be used for that purpose. As it happens we are about to receive a shipment of 650,000 doses this week. If all of them are used for second doses, with any luck, no one will get VITT.

Canada is consulting with other countries in the world about the topic of a "vaccine passport" or some other certification program. I watched a federal government press conference today and a reporter raised an interesting question about allowing travelers who have been fully vaccinated into one's country. He pointed out that the US has not yet approved the AZ vaccine and there is some speculation that the US will never approve the AZ vaccine, because of the blood clot issue. The question is, will the US recognize people who have been fully vaccinated with the AZ vaccine as being vaccinated, for the purpose of travel to the US. Now, wouldn't that be funny if the US expected the UK and the EU to allow fully vaccinated American tourists and business travelers into their countries without quarantine but would refuse citizens of the UK and the EU entry into the US if vaccinated with AZ.

The question came up because there have apparently been suggestions that the US shouldn't allow in people vaccinated with the various Chinese vaccines because those vaccines haven't been approved by the US. The Chinese, of course, have not provided the kind of data required by the US for vaccine approval, but AZ has, I think, provided the data from their US trial. It will be interesting to see what countries do about this issue. It sounds like some of the Chinese vaccines have an efficacy rate of about 55%, which is high enough to be approved by the CDC but so much lower than not only the mRNA vaccines but the AZ vaccine as well.

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2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Two provinces in Canada have announced they will no longer use AZ for first doses. Alberta came out first and Ontario, Canada's biggest province, announced it this afternoon. Ontario made the move out of caution. At first it looked like the rate of VITT was about 1 in 100,000, but a few more cases popped up and dropped the rate to 1 in 60,000, and outside of Ontario some provinces are seeing a rate of 1 in 55,000. Authorities have pointed out that UK data indicates the rate goes back up to 1 in a million for second doses, so it looks like future doses will only be used for that purpose. As it happens we are about to receive a shipment of 650,000 doses this week. If all of them are used for second doses, with any luck, no one will get VITT.

Canada is consulting with other countries in the world about the topic of a "vaccine passport" or some other certification program. I watched a federal government press conference today and a reporter raised an interesting question about allowing travelers who have been fully vaccinated into one's country. He pointed out that the US has not yet approved the AZ vaccine and there is some speculation that the US will never approve the AZ vaccine, because of the blood clot issue. The question is, will the US recognize people who have been fully vaccinated with the AZ vaccine as being vaccinated, for the purpose of travel to the US. Now, wouldn't that be funny if the US expected the UK and the EU to allow fully vaccinated American tourists and business travelers into their countries without quarantine but would refuse citizens of the UK and the EU entry into the US if vaccinated with AZ.

The question came up because there have apparently been suggestions that the US shouldn't allow in people vaccinated with the various Chinese vaccines because those vaccines haven't been approved by the US. The Chinese, of course, have not provided the kind of data required by the US for vaccine approval, but AZ has, I think, provided the data from their US trial. It will be interesting to see what countries do about this issue. It sounds like some of the Chinese vaccines have an efficacy rate of about 55%, which is high enough to be approved by the CDC but so much lower than not only the mRNA vaccines but the AZ vaccine as well.

I think we have much of the same issues here. The EU wants to allow travel between all member states (and internationally) with vaccines which were approved by the EMA. But Hungary, a member, also vaccinated with sinopharm and sputnik. No ieda how they will solve this.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Quote

Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts

Highly transmissible B.1.617.2 is now second most common variant and is spreading in north-west England

The dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning.

The variant, called B.1.617.2, is one of three closely related variants that were initially detected in India. Public Health England designated it a “variant of concern” on Friday, acknowledging it appears to be at least as transmissible as the dominant so-called Kent variant in the UK. It is unclear if and to what extent B.1.617.2 can reduce vaccine effectiveness.

...

Article continues

 

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3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Canada is consulting with other countries in the world about the topic of a "vaccine passport" or some other certification program. I watched a federal government press conference today and a reporter raised an interesting question about allowing travelers who have been fully vaccinated into one's country. He pointed out that the US has not yet approved the AZ vaccine and there is some speculation that the US will never approve the AZ vaccine, because of the blood clot issue. The question is, will the US recognize people who have been fully vaccinated with the AZ vaccine as being vaccinated, for the purpose of travel to the US. Now, wouldn't that be funny if the US expected the UK and the EU to allow fully vaccinated American tourists and business travelers into their countries without quarantine but would refuse citizens of the UK and the EU entry into the US if vaccinated with AZ.

The question came up because there have apparently been suggestions that the US shouldn't allow in people vaccinated with the various Chinese vaccines because those vaccines haven't been approved by the US. The Chinese, of course, have not provided the kind of data required by the US for vaccine approval, but AZ has, I think, provided the data from their US trial. It will be interesting to see what countries do about this issue. It sounds like some of the Chinese vaccines have an efficacy rate of about 55%, which is high enough to be approved by the CDC but so much lower than not only the mRNA vaccines but the AZ vaccine as well.

It's the same in Europe and it's BULLSHIT and tells you that the "vaccine passports" has nothing to do with public health but with politics, both internal and external.

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

It's the same in Europe and it's BULLSHIT and tells you that the "vaccine passports" has nothing to do with public health but with politics, both internal and external.

I wouldn't completely agree with that.  I think each vaccine should reach a certain threshold.  One good suggestion was that if the WHO approves a vaccine, then it should be be allowed by the EU when it comes to passports.  The EMA is looking at both Sinovac and Sputnik at the moment.  Sinopharm has been approved by the WHO.  This should be a solvable issue.

I would be shocked if the EU and US don't agree to respect each others approvals.  There is no benefit in doing otherwise.

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Interesting.  It begs the question about how many people who have this variant have been vaccinated.  And if they have been vaccinated, how bad were their symthoms.  The story doesn't give many details.  There has been a slight uptake in overall cases in the UK but the overall number is very low, so its hard to know whether that is just a blip.

Seperately, this link is a fascinating look at who is being vaccinated in many countries in Europe.  Clearly a lot of different strategies.  Some very concentrated on age, others less so, and then Bulgaria.

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