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Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming


Mlle. Zabzie

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3 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Here are the first results from the British study mixing vaccines (either AZ then Biontech, or the other way around):

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01115-6/fulltext

Fascinating.  I wonder does that mean that the immunological response will be higher also.

It also allows one to compare the side effects of AZ v Pfizer/Biontech.  AZ is worse for first dose, Pfizer/Biontech for the second dose.

According to ourworldindata, Germany has reached 0.9 doses 100 people on a daily basis.  Impressive.  Only the US has got above that (of the biggest countries).  Although, Canada isn't far off.

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17 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Up to 7, now? That's really astonishing. Either that, or somebody has been lying about getting vaccinated? Or do they all have some new NY variant that is more infectious? With a double vaccine there's supposed to be 95% efficacy, after all. And the statistic is, after all, 5,800 infections out of 77 M vaccinated....

Not sure, but it could be as simple as they had a new exposure shortly before the testing was done.  Its not like the vaccines prevent the virus from getting in, nor the body producing antibodies, its just that body is trained to fight it effectively enough that it cant do much in the way of replication. 

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3 minutes ago, horangi said:

Not sure, but it could be as simple as they had a new exposure shortly before the testing was done.  Its not like the vaccines prevent the virus from getting in, nor the body producing antibodies, its just that body is trained to fight it effectively enough that it cant do much in the way of replication. 

And the 5800 out of 77m is almost certainly a big underestimation.  A lot of vaccinated people pick up COVID and probably never realise it.  I presume the Yankees are tested regularly though.

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What is herd immunity?  Not at all what so many persist in thinking herd immunity is.

https://slate.com/technology/2021/05/covid-herd-immunity-end-pandemic.html

 

Quote

 

....The herd immunity threshold is the number of immune people it will take to maintain herd immunity once cases reach their nadir—not the number it will take for cases to start dropping, and not a number used to declare the pandemic ended.

Pundits complain that we’re “moving the goalposts” when scientists debate about what the threshold is, exactly. The truth is we just don’t know what the threshold is because it’s a moving target. It is very sensitive to small changes in both human and viral adaptation. Little things matter. A lot. Things like a change in the daily riders on the subway system, or one big party where 500 people are exposed. The threshold is also sensitive to small changes to the virus and how it infects humans. If it gains an adaptive advantage somewhere along its world tour, the threshold will shift in ways that no one can predict. We often don’t measure these things well, or even know what they are until after the fact. In addition, these effects are often not linear, so measuring the right things well wouldn’t necessarily lead to better predictions. In short, it’s complicated. It’s so complicated that the study of herd immunity is itself housed in the niche field of complexity science....

 

 

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This is the first time I've ever found Bill de Blasio likable...

 

It's shame that we've reached the point where we're having to bribe people to get a life-saving, miracle drug; but "Wait a minute. There's also a burger element to this?" is my new favorite quote.

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The US CDC seems a bit optimistic to me:

Quote

People fully vaccinated against Covid-19 do not need to wear masks or practice social distancing indoors or outdoors, except under certain circumstances, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday.

"If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic," Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House Covid-19 briefing. "We have all longed for this moment when we can get back to some sense of normalcy."

Walensky said the science supports the new recommendation that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."

I've basically stopped wearing masks outdoors after I got the vaccine, but I'm still going to wear them indoors. What do people think?

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1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Apparently 6 out of 7 are asymptomatic, so I'd say the vaccines are doing their job.

I wouldn’t say that at all. It has been publicized that if people get infected after being vaccinated they have a lower viral load and are much less likely to get ill. The story doesn’t tell you how many people are involved, or it included back office people. If it’s just the team and support staff, how many is it? If 7 people out of 100 are infected, and 85% are vaccinated, 7 out of 85 is one helluva a number, or even 7 out of 100. That would suggest that out of 77 M vaccinated people in the US, about 5.4 M could be infected.

Even if it’s 200 people, so 7 out of 170, that’s a staggering number. 7 out of 200 is a helluva a number. That would suggest 2.7 M vaccinated people are walking around infected. 
 

eta: I want to point out that 95% efficacy doesn’t mean 5% of people will get Covid-19. I think most of us believe 85% is herd immunity. The league rule is that if 85% of the team is vaccinated, the players don’t have to wear masks. My assumption is that that means team members, coaches and support staff that help them, and not back office people. I would think that 100 people is a reasonable number to consider. If 85% are vaccinated and 7 people are infected, does that mean those people have been incredibly careless away from the team? Seven infections in a group 85% vaccinated suggests the herd immunity number is a lot higher than we all thought it was.

However, a number of sports teams have had numerous infections, and it has been suggested that members of teams have been very careless out in the real world. Still, this may mean Covid may be way more infectious than we think.

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Well, a prominent virologist in Germany is saying that people are going to become immune either via vaccination or via infection, which means that probably vaccines cannot completely curtail transmission but with them you can avoid to get severely sick. Choose wisely people!

As I said before, is past due to make the distinction between being PCR positive and having COVID. It's not the same.

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Its also a bit tricky to extrapolate a sample size of 85 to 77 million, the two problems being the smallness of the former as well as its non-random nature. Leaving aside the distinction between PCR-positive and having COVID, if for instance one of the staff members 'had COVID' from one of the variants that the vaccines showed lower efficacy towards and passed it on to other staff members, then we would be severely biasing our interpretation of the results as well.

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6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Its also a bit tricky to extrapolate a sample size of 85 to 77 million

Tricky.  I'd imagine most statisticians would say this is the worst way to do statistics.  Go to the outlier, assume it is the norm and make all kinds of assumptions based on that.

Now, one approach is widen the sample size.  I imagine the Yankees aren't the only team that have been vaccinated.  If the Yankees were the norm, then there should be similar reports from lots of other teams.

47 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

As I said before, is past due to make the distinction between being PCR positive and having COVID. It's not the same.

What is the rate of false positives from a PCR test?  I thought it was really low.

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1 minute ago, Padraig said:

What is the rate of false positives from a PCR test?  I thought it was really low.

I mean that having PCR positive (having the virus in your upper airways) doesn't mean that you are going to get sick (i.e. have COVID by some clinical definition).  I'm aware it has been talked before, but as more people get vaccinated and we reopen cases of SARS-CoV-2 positive are going to be more common (or should be if testing continues), but hopefully few end in the hospital.

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Conservatives in my office are crowing about the CDC saying vaccinated people are allowed to go maskless like its some sort of victory for them.  Well yeah, that was the reason we all got the shot you brainwashed fascists.

I don't even know how their brains work anymore.

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7 minutes ago, argonak said:

Conservatives in my office are crowing about the CDC saying vaccinated people are allowed to go maskless like its some sort of victory for them.  Well yeah, that was the reason we all got the shot you brainwashed fascists.

I don't even know how their brains work anymore.

A huge number of conservatives, even ones who do understand that the pandemic is real, believe that liberals want to use it as an excuse to permanently control the population in some way. The super crazies take this to the extreme that 5G chips are in the vaccine and will literally brainwash people. The slightly-less-crazy-but-still-very-crazy believe liberals will permanently restrict freedoms in all sorts of ways. They've built up all sorts of beliefs around permanent lockdowns. And, when confronted with the restrictions ending, they build up some sort of fantasy about how liberals have lost a secret war; rather than this being the goal all along.

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5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I wouldn’t say that at all. It has been publicized that if people get infected after being vaccinated they have a lower viral load and are much less likely to get ill. The story doesn’t tell you how many people are involved, or it included back office people. If it’s just the team and support staff, how many is it? If 7 people out of 100 are infected, and 85% are vaccinated, 7 out of 85 is one helluva a number, or even 7 out of 100. That would suggest that out of 77 M vaccinated people in the US, about 5.4 M could be infected.

Even if it’s 200 people, so 7 out of 170, that’s a staggering number. 7 out of 200 is a helluva a number. That would suggest 2.7 M vaccinated people are walking around infected. 

If they're asymptomatic, they did not "get ill", did they? The important statistic are deaths and hospitalizations, not positive tests.

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2 hours ago, Gorn said:

If they're asymptomatic, they did not "get ill", did they? The important statistic are deaths and hospitalizations, not positive tests.

Asymptomatic people are suspected to be the biggest spreaders of Covid-19.

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