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Mlle. Zabzie

Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming

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Two provinces in Canada have announced they will no longer use AZ for first doses. Alberta came out first and Ontario, Canada's biggest province, announced it this afternoon. Ontario made the move out of caution. At first it looked like the rate of VITT was about 1 in 100,000, but a few more cases popped up and dropped the rate to 1 in 60,000, and outside of Ontario some provinces are seeing a rate of 1 in 55,000. Authorities have pointed out that UK data indicates the rate goes back up to 1 in a million for second doses, so it looks like future doses will only be used for that purpose. As it happens we are about to receive a shipment of 650,000 doses this week. If all of them are used for second doses, with any luck, no one will get VITT.

Canada is consulting with other countries in the world about the topic of a "vaccine passport" or some other certification program. I watched a federal government press conference today and a reporter raised an interesting question about allowing travelers who have been fully vaccinated into one's country. He pointed out that the US has not yet approved the AZ vaccine and there is some speculation that the US will never approve the AZ vaccine, because of the blood clot issue. The question is, will the US recognize people who have been fully vaccinated with the AZ vaccine as being vaccinated, for the purpose of travel to the US. Now, wouldn't that be funny if the US expected the UK and the EU to allow fully vaccinated American tourists and business travelers into their countries without quarantine but would refuse citizens of the UK and the EU entry into the US if vaccinated with AZ.

The question came up because there have apparently been suggestions that the US shouldn't allow in people vaccinated with the various Chinese vaccines because those vaccines haven't been approved by the US. The Chinese, of course, have not provided the kind of data required by the US for vaccine approval, but AZ has, I think, provided the data from their US trial. It will be interesting to see what countries do about this issue. It sounds like some of the Chinese vaccines have an efficacy rate of about 55%, which is high enough to be approved by the CDC but so much lower than not only the mRNA vaccines but the AZ vaccine as well.

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2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Two provinces in Canada have announced they will no longer use AZ for first doses. Alberta came out first and Ontario, Canada's biggest province, announced it this afternoon. Ontario made the move out of caution. At first it looked like the rate of VITT was about 1 in 100,000, but a few more cases popped up and dropped the rate to 1 in 60,000, and outside of Ontario some provinces are seeing a rate of 1 in 55,000. Authorities have pointed out that UK data indicates the rate goes back up to 1 in a million for second doses, so it looks like future doses will only be used for that purpose. As it happens we are about to receive a shipment of 650,000 doses this week. If all of them are used for second doses, with any luck, no one will get VITT.

Canada is consulting with other countries in the world about the topic of a "vaccine passport" or some other certification program. I watched a federal government press conference today and a reporter raised an interesting question about allowing travelers who have been fully vaccinated into one's country. He pointed out that the US has not yet approved the AZ vaccine and there is some speculation that the US will never approve the AZ vaccine, because of the blood clot issue. The question is, will the US recognize people who have been fully vaccinated with the AZ vaccine as being vaccinated, for the purpose of travel to the US. Now, wouldn't that be funny if the US expected the UK and the EU to allow fully vaccinated American tourists and business travelers into their countries without quarantine but would refuse citizens of the UK and the EU entry into the US if vaccinated with AZ.

The question came up because there have apparently been suggestions that the US shouldn't allow in people vaccinated with the various Chinese vaccines because those vaccines haven't been approved by the US. The Chinese, of course, have not provided the kind of data required by the US for vaccine approval, but AZ has, I think, provided the data from their US trial. It will be interesting to see what countries do about this issue. It sounds like some of the Chinese vaccines have an efficacy rate of about 55%, which is high enough to be approved by the CDC but so much lower than not only the mRNA vaccines but the AZ vaccine as well.

I think we have much of the same issues here. The EU wants to allow travel between all member states (and internationally) with vaccines which were approved by the EMA. But Hungary, a member, also vaccinated with sinopharm and sputnik. No ieda how they will solve this.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Quote

Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts

Highly transmissible B.1.617.2 is now second most common variant and is spreading in north-west England

The dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning.

The variant, called B.1.617.2, is one of three closely related variants that were initially detected in India. Public Health England designated it a “variant of concern” on Friday, acknowledging it appears to be at least as transmissible as the dominant so-called Kent variant in the UK. It is unclear if and to what extent B.1.617.2 can reduce vaccine effectiveness.

...

Article continues

 

Edited by Which Tyler

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3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Canada is consulting with other countries in the world about the topic of a "vaccine passport" or some other certification program. I watched a federal government press conference today and a reporter raised an interesting question about allowing travelers who have been fully vaccinated into one's country. He pointed out that the US has not yet approved the AZ vaccine and there is some speculation that the US will never approve the AZ vaccine, because of the blood clot issue. The question is, will the US recognize people who have been fully vaccinated with the AZ vaccine as being vaccinated, for the purpose of travel to the US. Now, wouldn't that be funny if the US expected the UK and the EU to allow fully vaccinated American tourists and business travelers into their countries without quarantine but would refuse citizens of the UK and the EU entry into the US if vaccinated with AZ.

The question came up because there have apparently been suggestions that the US shouldn't allow in people vaccinated with the various Chinese vaccines because those vaccines haven't been approved by the US. The Chinese, of course, have not provided the kind of data required by the US for vaccine approval, but AZ has, I think, provided the data from their US trial. It will be interesting to see what countries do about this issue. It sounds like some of the Chinese vaccines have an efficacy rate of about 55%, which is high enough to be approved by the CDC but so much lower than not only the mRNA vaccines but the AZ vaccine as well.

It's the same in Europe and it's BULLSHIT and tells you that the "vaccine passports" has nothing to do with public health but with politics, both internal and external.

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

It's the same in Europe and it's BULLSHIT and tells you that the "vaccine passports" has nothing to do with public health but with politics, both internal and external.

I wouldn't completely agree with that.  I think each vaccine should reach a certain threshold.  One good suggestion was that if the WHO approves a vaccine, then it should be be allowed by the EU when it comes to passports.  The EMA is looking at both Sinovac and Sputnik at the moment.  Sinopharm has been approved by the WHO.  This should be a solvable issue.

I would be shocked if the EU and US don't agree to respect each others approvals.  There is no benefit in doing otherwise.

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Interesting.  It begs the question about how many people who have this variant have been vaccinated.  And if they have been vaccinated, how bad were their symthoms.  The story doesn't give many details.  There has been a slight uptake in overall cases in the UK but the overall number is very low, so its hard to know whether that is just a blip.

Seperately, this link is a fascinating look at who is being vaccinated in many countries in Europe.  Clearly a lot of different strategies.  Some very concentrated on age, others less so, and then Bulgaria.

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4 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Interesting.  It begs the question about how many people who have this variant have been vaccinated.  And if they have been vaccinated, how bad were their symthoms.  The story doesn't give many details.  There has been a slight uptake in overall cases in the UK but the overall number is very low, so its hard to know whether that is just a blip.

Yeah, without more information, there's not much to discuss here.

It'll be "interesting" to see how the variant does when up against a well resourced healthcare system, and a lack of religious holidays / mass gatherings.

On the other hand, it's exactly that hubris that resulted in the first wave, with reactions to data repeatedly coming... later than ideal.

On the plus side, if enough is known about this "outbreak" that the press pick up on it; then it should be safe to assume that SAGE & PHE are on the case (whether they can convince "bodies pile high" Johnson to act is a different matter).

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

On the plus side, if enough is known about this "outbreak" that the press pick up on it; then it should be safe to assume that SAGE & PHE are on the case (whether they can convince "bodies pile high" Johnson to act is a different matter).

Yes.  Hopefully lessons have being learned.  There is so much study going on in this field right now, that there are few excuses available.

There has been some more work on length of effectivness.  I haven't seen 6-8 months suggested before.  Not sure I should believe that.  Complicated question, i'm sure.

Quote

When tested for its ability to neutralize the P.1 and B.1.351 strains, the antibodies generated by the Moderna vaccine against the original strain dropped to low or undetectable levels six to eight months after the second dose (see Figure 2).

...

This doesn’t necessarily imply a direct loss of immune protection. When antibodies fade, the combined defenses of T cells, memory B cells, and other components of the immune response may suffice.

There is a Fox news article (which i'm not going to link) talking about how the Indian variant does lead to a drop in protection but vaccines remain effective .  Similar to the South African variant.

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3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

It's the same in Europe and it's BULLSHIT and tells you that the "vaccine passports" has nothing to do with public health but with politics, both internal and external.

I think the term “vaccine passport” makes some people angry, I think “vaccine certification” is the appropriate term. As for the politics, the Chinese have refused to provide data about their vaccines so far, haven’t they? While it’s obvious politics are playing a role, shouldn’t countries expect to see the data? I have seen stories that report anything from 50%, from some South American countries, to 80% or 85% from the Middle East, Bahrain maybe?

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the EU is going out of their way to NOT call it a passport (the official term is "digital green certificate") but once something's used by the media, that's that.

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Interesting - two NY Yankees coaches an a support person have all tested positive for Covid-19 even though all three are fully vaccinated. Maybe a story later today will have details as to when they received their second shots.

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Vaccine passports are ridiculous as they are currently discussed, because as was pointed out across the board, it's vastly easier to get a fake vaccine passport than get vaccinated.  Bar tenders are selling fake vaccine passports, as are many others, fer pete's sake.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Vaccine passports are ridiculous as they are currently discussed, because as was pointed out across the board, it's vastly easier to get a fake vaccine passport than get vaccinated.  Bar tenders are selling fake vaccine passports, as are many others, fer pete's sake.

 

 

the EU passport certificate will have a QR code confirming its authenticity.

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17 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

the EU passport certificate will have a QR code confirming its authenticity.

Excellent. OTOH, the US is pretty much anti-vaccination as it is, so it's REALLY anti-vaccination certificates, passports, etc., and will immediately figure out a way to make fakes ones for both owning the libs and for profit.  Never under estimate Ingenuity USA for the Stupid, Cruel, Greed and Violent! Number 1 USA YAY!

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14 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Excellent. OTOH, the US is pretty much anti-vaccination as it is, so it's REALLY anti-vaccination certificates, passports, etc., and will immediately figure out a way to make fakes ones for both owning the libs and for profit.  Never under estimate Ingenuity USA for the Stupid, Cruel, Greed and Violent! Number 1 USA YAY!

Well it is clearly treason because a big next wave will damage the economy of the country significantly. The people involved are already experts at finding treason awesome I guess. 

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1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Well it is clearly treason because a big next wave will damage the economy of the country significantly.

As long as They can keep doing people trafficking, wage theft, and forcing people to work in sub-human conditions Their economy will continue and soar, and that's The Point.

Big sectors here are already highly skilled and practiced at the above criminal behaviors.  Right now here in our city, finally coming to court is the case of a construction company who enticed 400 workers from India to come, had their passports confiscated, imprisoned in a barracks, and allowed out only to labor long hours, for $450 a month, which mostly was withheld.

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Excellent. OTOH, the US is pretty much anti-vaccination as it is, so it's REALLY anti-vaccination certificates, passports, etc., and will immediately figure out a way to make fakes ones for both owning the libs and for profit.  Never under estimate Ingenuity USA for the Stupid, Cruel, Greed and Violent! Number 1 USA YAY!

There is no real intention of the US having a passport cert though?  Except presumably for people entering the country?  So I don't think forgery is a particular issue.

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

As for the politics, the Chinese have refused to provide data about their vaccines so far, haven’t they?

Presumably no longer.   Sinovac has applied for EU approval and WHO approval.  The WHO has given Sinopharm approval.

There are documents out there.

https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/immunization/sage/2021/april/5_sage29apr2021_critical-evidence_sinovac.pdf

https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/immunization/sage/2021/april/2_sage29apr2021_critical-evidence_sinopharm.pdf

There is some uncertainty regarding efficacy but that's probably variant related.

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I guess there is a labor shortage. Maybe ICE can work in construction for free to serve their debt to society.

I’ve had to have shots for other counties throughout decades. One that I had to get was one for chicken pox.! Why is this shot a problem? 

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58 minutes ago, Zorral said:

As long as They can keep doing people trafficking, wage theft, and forcing people to work in sub-human conditions Their economy will continue and soar, and that's The Point.

Big sectors here are already highly skilled and practiced at the above criminal behaviors.  Right now here in our city, finally coming to court is the case of a construction company who enticed 400 workers from India to come, had their passports confiscated, imprisoned in a barracks, and allowed out only to labor long hours, for $450 a month, which mostly was withheld.

THIS IS OUTFUCKINGRAGEOUS!! 

I Can only hope the management is subjected to some very well deserved cruel and painful judgement.

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Bodies are now being dumped in rivers in India because crematoriums are at capacity and its difficult to find firewood even for open pyres (as with most crises,. hoarding/stockpiling and price gouging are on the rise for certain critical supplies).

I think I mentioned this before, but my parents have both doses of AZ and are 'fully' vaccinated (at the same time as me, coincidentally, on May 5). They are still being very cautious and dont venture out much. The caseloads have now switched towards rural areas from the congested urban areas, it looks like, which brings its own host of problems.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Padraig said:

There is no real intention of the US having a passport cert though?  Except presumably for people entering the country?  So I don't think forgery is a particular issue.

Presumably no longer.   Sinovac has applied for EU approval and WHO approval.  The WHO has given Sinopharm approval.

There are documents out there.

https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/immunization/sage/2021/april/5_sage29apr2021_critical-evidence_sinovac.pdf

https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/immunization/sage/2021/april/2_sage29apr2021_critical-evidence_sinopharm.pdf

There is some uncertainty regarding efficacy but that's probably variant related.

There are 3 Chinese vaccines, aren’t there?

As for Americans proving if they have been vaccinated, all the cruise companies have said passengers will have to be vaccinated. Since most of them cruise out of Florida ports and the state has passed a law making it illegal for businesses to ask if people have been vaccinated, something’s going to come to a head. Either there will have to be an exception for cruises or the cruise companies have said they may sail out of other ports. I don’t know if that means NY or NJ, or Texas, or a Caribbean island.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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