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Mlle. Zabzie

Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming

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Vaccination incentive/award is unfair, discriminatory, and RONG! because I am already vaccinated, I don't get to compete for the opportunity to win a million buckaroos.  :crying: :crying: :crying:  It's just too MEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN to MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE. Imma gonna Tell. On Twitter. You'll see!

  

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12 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

My first thought was let the states cover the tab for the youth scholarship lotteries, but yo, federal government, appropriate a few billion dollars and do this nation wide and have five weeks of lottery winners for each Congressional District. 

Yeah- in the bigger scheme, this is such a cheap option for the potential impact.  Heck you could do 10 lucky winners for each congressional district every week for a month and you still have a price tag under 2 billion (in-state tuition).  (the terrible side effect is you also get college education to 17k students, and we wouldnt want that now, would we?)

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"New York Yankees Somehow Have 7 COVID Cases in Vaccinated Staff"

It's a mystery.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/yankees-somehow-have-seven-covid-cases-in-vaccinated-staff.html

Quote

 

....If a team’s traveling party numbers in the several dozen, seven positive cases would be orders of magnitude higher than the breakthrough rate in the non-pinstripe population: According to CDC data from April 15, 5,800 Americans had contracted the coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated, out of a population of 77 million people who had received their full dosage.

Major League Baseball has provided incentives for players to get vaccinated, including the relaxing of pandemic restrictions if teams get at least 85 percent of their group of staff and players who travel to away games to get their shots. At least ten teams, including the Yankees, have reached that mark as of Wednesday, allowing players to take off their masks in the dugout and bullpen; dine indoors; and stop participating in the league’s contact-tracing program.

Over the two pandemic seasons, some players have been reluctant to adhere to coronavirus protocols. During the final game of the World Series, Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner violated league rules when he celebrated on the field after he was pulled in the seventh inning when he was notified of a positive coronavirus test. On the day after the season began, New York Mets third baseman J.D. Davis said that he hadn’t “really thought about” whether or not he’d get a vaccine. Philadelphia Phillies reliever Hector Neris said days later that he did not want to “get a shot, not right now.” ....

 

 

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Up to 7, now? That's really astonishing. Either that, or somebody has been lying about getting vaccinated? Or do they all have some new NY variant that is more infectious? With a double vaccine there's supposed to be 95% efficacy, after all. And the statistic is, after all, 5,800 infections out of 77 M vaccinated....

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Free beer after being vaccinated in the local bar is the best incentive for vaccination -- at least in NY state.

https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/05/vaccine-free-beer-bar-covid.html

Quote

 

.... Aymann Ismail: So who said, “Let’s just give them free beer!”

Dr. Gale Burstein: Our county executive Mark Poloncarz developed this idea. It comes from a Buffalo tradition where many times when people go out and drink, they’ll drink a shot of hard liquor and they’ll chase it down with a beer. That’s a common kind of alcohol order. Mark thought of a shot and a chaser vaccine clinic, where if people received a shot of COVID-19 vaccine, they could get a pint of beer as chaser.

Did everyone go, “Oh, yeah, good idea”?  

We were optimistic that offering the vaccine in a familiar environment, and giving them something that they want, in addition to getting protected from COVID-19, would work. People in their 20s and 30s is an age group where we haven’t had as high a penetration for the COVID-19 vaccine, or as high as we would like. Also, that is the age groups where we’re seeing the highest number of new COVID-19 infections now. So we’re just trying to be playful, make it fun for people. We’ve given much of the Erie County population their first dose already. Now it’s time that we be creative to meet people where they are, to entice them and excite them to get a vaccine. We know that many people that age, on a weekend, especially the rare sunny Sunday afternoon in Buffalo in May, go to a brewery to have a beer or wine. We were able to vaccinate almost 150 people that afternoon with COVID-19 vaccine.

Did you hear people talk about why they hadn’t gotten the shot yet?

I was one of the vaccinators. People told us that they had been thinking about it, but it wasn’t a priority Now we were giving them something that they liked in a place where they like to go. So they thought, “Why not? I’ll do it.” People told me they were excited—that they weren’t planning to get a vaccine but did want one. Or they hadn’t made a solid plan. There were some people who had questions, and I was there to answer those questions. And so this was the tipping point that changed their mind and motivated them to get a vaccine that day. We were also able to get people that work at the restaurant, the kitchen and the brewery, who hadn’t planned on getting vaccinated. We made it easy for them. It just takes a few minutes just to get the vaccine. We watched them for 15 minutes, and then they’re good to go.

Was anyone still reluctant when you approached them?

There were a few times during the clinic when I took a break from vaccinating, and went around to the different tables in the Brewery and introduced myself, “Hi, I’m Dr. Gale Burstein for the Erie County Health Department. Just wondering if anybody would be interested in getting a free COVID-19 vaccine today and a free pint of beer to ensure you enjoy your afternoon.” And at one table everybody said, “Oh, we’ve all been vaccinated already.” And then one person said, “Well, I haven’t been vaccinated yet.” And I said, “Hey, come on. You could do it right now, and you can have a beer on us.” She said, “I’m not sure.” And everybody else in the table went “Come on, you have to get vaccinated too! Be safe with us!” They kept encouraging her. And, finally, she conceded to peer pressure and followed me over to that portion of the Brewery where we were operating the vaccine clinic. I promised, “I’m the Erie County Health Commissioner and I will vaccinate you myself.” And I did....

 

 

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3 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Here are the first results from the British study mixing vaccines (either AZ then Biontech, or the other way around):

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01115-6/fulltext

Fascinating.  I wonder does that mean that the immunological response will be higher also.

It also allows one to compare the side effects of AZ v Pfizer/Biontech.  AZ is worse for first dose, Pfizer/Biontech for the second dose.

According to ourworldindata, Germany has reached 0.9 doses 100 people on a daily basis.  Impressive.  Only the US has got above that (of the biggest countries).  Although, Canada isn't far off.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Up to 7, now? That's really astonishing. Either that, or somebody has been lying about getting vaccinated? Or do they all have some new NY variant that is more infectious? With a double vaccine there's supposed to be 95% efficacy, after all. And the statistic is, after all, 5,800 infections out of 77 M vaccinated....

Not sure, but it could be as simple as they had a new exposure shortly before the testing was done.  Its not like the vaccines prevent the virus from getting in, nor the body producing antibodies, its just that body is trained to fight it effectively enough that it cant do much in the way of replication. 

Edited by horangi
wrong term!

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3 minutes ago, horangi said:

Not sure, but it could be as simple as they had a new exposure shortly before the testing was done.  Its not like the vaccines prevent the virus from getting in, nor the body producing antibodies, its just that body is trained to fight it effectively enough that it cant do much in the way of replication. 

And the 5800 out of 77m is almost certainly a big underestimation.  A lot of vaccinated people pick up COVID and probably never realise it.  I presume the Yankees are tested regularly though.

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What is herd immunity?  Not at all what so many persist in thinking herd immunity is.

https://slate.com/technology/2021/05/covid-herd-immunity-end-pandemic.html

 

Quote

 

....The herd immunity threshold is the number of immune people it will take to maintain herd immunity once cases reach their nadir—not the number it will take for cases to start dropping, and not a number used to declare the pandemic ended.

Pundits complain that we’re “moving the goalposts” when scientists debate about what the threshold is, exactly. The truth is we just don’t know what the threshold is because it’s a moving target. It is very sensitive to small changes in both human and viral adaptation. Little things matter. A lot. Things like a change in the daily riders on the subway system, or one big party where 500 people are exposed. The threshold is also sensitive to small changes to the virus and how it infects humans. If it gains an adaptive advantage somewhere along its world tour, the threshold will shift in ways that no one can predict. We often don’t measure these things well, or even know what they are until after the fact. In addition, these effects are often not linear, so measuring the right things well wouldn’t necessarily lead to better predictions. In short, it’s complicated. It’s so complicated that the study of herd immunity is itself housed in the niche field of complexity science....

 

 

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This is the first time I've ever found Bill de Blasio likable...

 

It's shame that we've reached the point where we're having to bribe people to get a life-saving, miracle drug; but "Wait a minute. There's also a burger element to this?" is my new favorite quote.

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Social scientists have done a lot of work on whether punishments or rewards work, and I think the take home is the former doesnt and the latter does to a limited extent. Not sure any of these promotions will move the needle all that much, to be honest.

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3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Hell, I'm sure we all know someone that would run naked through a supermarked for 6 beers - or at least, after 6 beers

Spoiler

 

 

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Running naked through supermarkets was the first and second quest GRRM sent to get people knighted

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The US CDC seems a bit optimistic to me:

Quote

People fully vaccinated against Covid-19 do not need to wear masks or practice social distancing indoors or outdoors, except under certain circumstances, the director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday.

"If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic," Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House Covid-19 briefing. "We have all longed for this moment when we can get back to some sense of normalcy."

Walensky said the science supports the new recommendation that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."

I've basically stopped wearing masks outdoors after I got the vaccine, but I'm still going to wear them indoors. What do people think?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Apparently 6 out of 7 are asymptomatic, so I'd say the vaccines are doing their job.

I wouldn’t say that at all. It has been publicized that if people get infected after being vaccinated they have a lower viral load and are much less likely to get ill. The story doesn’t tell you how many people are involved, or it included back office people. If it’s just the team and support staff, how many is it? If 7 people out of 100 are infected, and 85% are vaccinated, 7 out of 85 is one helluva a number, or even 7 out of 100. That would suggest that out of 77 M vaccinated people in the US, about 5.4 M could be infected.

Even if it’s 200 people, so 7 out of 170, that’s a staggering number. 7 out of 200 is a helluva a number. That would suggest 2.7 M vaccinated people are walking around infected. 
 

eta: I want to point out that 95% efficacy doesn’t mean 5% of people will get Covid-19. I think most of us believe 85% is herd immunity. The league rule is that if 85% of the team is vaccinated, the players don’t have to wear masks. My assumption is that that means team members, coaches and support staff that help them, and not back office people. I would think that 100 people is a reasonable number to consider. If 85% are vaccinated and 7 people are infected, does that mean those people have been incredibly careless away from the team? Seven infections in a group 85% vaccinated suggests the herd immunity number is a lot higher than we all thought it was.

However, a number of sports teams have had numerous infections, and it has been suggested that members of teams have been very careless out in the real world. Still, this may mean Covid may be way more infectious than we think.

Edited by Fragile Bird

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Well, a prominent virologist in Germany is saying that people are going to become immune either via vaccination or via infection, which means that probably vaccines cannot completely curtail transmission but with them you can avoid to get severely sick. Choose wisely people!

As I said before, is past due to make the distinction between being PCR positive and having COVID. It's not the same.

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Its also a bit tricky to extrapolate a sample size of 85 to 77 million, the two problems being the smallness of the former as well as its non-random nature. Leaving aside the distinction between PCR-positive and having COVID, if for instance one of the staff members 'had COVID' from one of the variants that the vaccines showed lower efficacy towards and passed it on to other staff members, then we would be severely biasing our interpretation of the results as well.

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6 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Its also a bit tricky to extrapolate a sample size of 85 to 77 million

Tricky.  I'd imagine most statisticians would say this is the worst way to do statistics.  Go to the outlier, assume it is the norm and make all kinds of assumptions based on that.

Now, one approach is widen the sample size.  I imagine the Yankees aren't the only team that have been vaccinated.  If the Yankees were the norm, then there should be similar reports from lots of other teams.

47 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

As I said before, is past due to make the distinction between being PCR positive and having COVID. It's not the same.

What is the rate of false positives from a PCR test?  I thought it was really low.

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1 minute ago, Padraig said:

What is the rate of false positives from a PCR test?  I thought it was really low.

I mean that having PCR positive (having the virus in your upper airways) doesn't mean that you are going to get sick (i.e. have COVID by some clinical definition).  I'm aware it has been talked before, but as more people get vaccinated and we reopen cases of SARS-CoV-2 positive are going to be more common (or should be if testing continues), but hopefully few end in the hospital.

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