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Covid 19-31 The Mutants Are Coming


Mlle. Zabzie

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Asymptomatic people are suspected to be the biggest spreaders of Covid-19.

I'm guessing that a lot more Yankees would have been positive if it was that bad.

My theory is that one genuine breakthrough case (the symptomatic one) "infected" six others in the sense that they had virus particles in their nose, but didn't get sick or spread it further.

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16 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, a prominent virologist in Germany is saying that people are going to become immune either via vaccination or via infection, which means that probably vaccines cannot completely curtail transmission but with them you can avoid to get severely sick. Choose wisely people!

As I said before, is past due to make the distinction between being PCR positive and having COVID. It's not the same.

I also read this article of the prominent virologist. He said that with more vaccinations there will be less restrictions, and if there are no restrictions ( I assume stuff like indoor cinema, theatres, big weddings, football games) everyone without vaccination will get it. And in one and a half year or so, we are all immunized by vaccination or infection.

For me that seems to be an acknowledgment that for this virus with this high R value, there may be no herd immunity, no threshold to reach where everyone else is then protected by the immunized people around and then the virus will just vanish. though he did not say that I think it means the virus will stay and there is no herd immunity.

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

You know better than me that the federal government cannot enforce that. Republic leaning states are going to lift mask mandates (if they haven't done already) just to go against.

So go back to carrot and offer businesses tax breaks if they mandate masks or proof of vaccination before allowing people into their stores. The anti-vaccine crowd needs to be ostracized. They can rejoin society normally when they grow the fuck up.

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2 hours ago, JoannaL said:

I also read this article of the prominent virologist. He said that with more vaccinations there will be less restrictions, and if there are no restrictions ( I assume stuff like indoor cinema, theatres, big weddings, football games) everyone without vaccination will get it. And in one and a half year or so, we are all immunized by vaccination or infection.

For me that seems to be an acknowledgment that for this virus with this high R value, there may be no herd immunity, no threshold to reach where everyone else is then protected by the immunized people around and then the virus will just vanish. though he did not say that I think it means the virus will stay and there is no herd immunity.

I think he specifically said it will become endemic, meaning waves of infections back and forth and sooner or later we all may become in contact with the virus. The question is what we do with that information.

An article about the issue

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01220-7

 

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The mayor announced that of today our city' lowest rate of Covid-19 positivity in 7 months -- under 2%.  O my.

Though I keep double-masking, even in the street, unless sitting quietly talking with a friend in a park, I was so confident yesterday I went into Best Buy to purchase a bluetooth mouse and Tablet protector-stand, and into DSW to try on sneakers and sandals and buy a pair of each.  Also in parks three times yesterday, and reveled in the first of 2021's Jefferson Market Library's rose garden.  So much of my full sense of well-being was caused by perfect temperatures and sunlight, brilliant spring green foliage, and the flowers, the flowers, the flowers.  Not to mention hanging out with my friend.  Woo.  I haven't had a day like this in over two years, since the weather had been wintery already in 2019 mid-late fall.  I was so happy-giddy by bedtime last night it was like being drunk when 20! :P

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

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So the authorities here in the UK seem to be seriously concerned that one of the variants from India, B.1.617.2, is significantly more transmissible than the already more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, which isn't ideal. On the plus side they don't seem to think it's anymore vaccine resistant at the moment

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Just now, ljkeane said:

So the authorities here in the UK seem to be seriously concerned that one of the variants from India, B.1.617.2, is significantly more transmissible than the already more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, which isn't ideal. On the plus side they don't seem to think it's anymore vaccine resistant at the moment

In scotland, Glasgow and Moray will remain on lvl3 an extra week. Not convinced we’re out of this, if cases are spiking when we’re not even out of lockdown. Obviously lockdown ended unofficially a few weeks ago

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8 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

In scotland, Glasgow and Moray will remain on lvl3 an extra week. Not convinced we’re out of this, if cases are spiking when we’re not even out of lockdown. Obviously lockdown ended unofficially a few weeks ago

I wouldn't really call it lockdown anymore, just some restrictions. Although I'm not sure how well the not meeting indoors one is being followed. To be fair I think there was always an expectation that there'd be a bit of a spike as things opened up, in fact up to now it seems to have gone better than expected.

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Posted this in the UK politics thread, but it deserves repeating here. We're opening up a lot of indoor things on Monday, a little worrying given this SAGE report regarding the VOC out of India

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It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. There are also plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible.

If this variant were to have a 40% to 50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with Step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks). Progressing with both Steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

 

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Not good.  Why do they say that it is likely that there will be a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to previous peaks) when they don't know whether there is an increase in disease severity?  I know this variant may be more resistant to the vaccines but they don't think it is as bad as the South African variant.

I'm wondering am I missing something (are they actually thinking it is more severe but they aren't sure enough to explicitly say that?).  If they said "it is possible that there will be a substantial resurgence", that would make sense to me.  "Likely" makes it quite alarming.

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1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Not good.  Why do they say that it is likely that there will be a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to previous peaks) when they don't know whether there is an increase in disease severity?  I know this variant may be more resistant to the vaccines but they don't think it is as bad as the South African variant.

I'm wondering am I missing something (are they actually thinking it is more severe but they aren't sure enough to explicitly say that?).  If they said "it is possible that there will be a substantial resurgence", that would make sense to me.  "Likely" makes it quite alarming.

They already believe that the Indian variant is more severe. They've done animal testing that indicates that, the specific mutations are similar to another variant that was more severe, and the evidence in India where more younger people are having more severe symptoms faster is pretty clear. In particular it appears to cause more lesions in lung and intestinal cells. 

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1 hour ago, Padraig said:

  Why do they say that it is likely that there will be a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to previous peaks) when they don't know whether there is an increase in disease severity? 

More transmissible means more infections, and more infections would invariably lead to more hospitalizations and deaths. Now, some of these deaths & hospitalizations *should* be reduced given the vaccinations we've had here in the UK, and we should see that in the data. Unfortunately, we are at 36% of the population that has received both doses, so there is still a fairly large population that remains susceptible. Amongst the 36%, I would imagine the ones more likely to get hospitalized/ die are a large percentage, so it's possible we don't see quite as many hospitalizations and deaths, but we will still see quite a few given that we're at 36%.

19 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

having more severe symptoms faster is pretty clear. In particular it appears to cause more lesions in lung and intestinal cells. 

What specifically are we talking about here? Because 'lesions' is very vague and does not really mean anything. Would like to read some links if you have them for both the severe symptoms and the 'lesions'

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2 hours ago, Leap said:

How would you weigh the other third of the adult population that have only received their first dose? On top of the 36% with both doses, there's another 34% with a lower level of immunity.

As you say, those who have had the first dose should still see some level of protection against hospitalizations and deaths. This public health data set looks at vaccine effectiveness with the first and second dose against different outcomes, i.e. outcomes like symptomatic disease, hospitalizations and deaths; 1st dose has a protection of 55% to 70% against symptomatic disease, and 75% to 85% against hospitalization and 75% to 80% against mortality ( though their level of confidence with regards to mortality is low)

90% of over 70s have had both doses, so we will still see deaths & hospitalizations in that group, but it shouldn't be to the extent that we have seen in the first two waves, however, we have less than 70% of the 65 to 70 fully vaccinated, so there are quite a few people in that group that have only the first dose and people aged 60 to 65 have not had their second dose at all.

So we will certainly see hospitalizations & deaths in people that have had the first dose, including those in the 65 to 70 range and certainly in the 60 to 65 range

That table on page 6 also shows the importance of receiving both doses and not just 1 dose  - 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine has an effectiveness of 90 to 95% at preventing hospitalizations and 95 to 99% at preventing deaths.

( All of this assumes that there is no vaccine escape, ofc)

Right on cue, SPI-M-O have released their consensus statement on the variant of concern & the loosening of restrictions

Quote

Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

We would be in a better position if we had a better track & trace system, but we do not.

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34 minutes ago, Raja said:

Right on cue, SPI-M-O have released their consensus statement on the variant of concern & the loosening of restrictions

We would be in a better position if we had a better track & trace system, but we do not.

In absolut numbers the UK infection rate is beautifully low at the moment but if we have learned something about the corona virus over the last year then it is  that it  is a really bad idea to ignore a growing problem . The earlier one reacts the less bad it gets. So is it known already what the UK is planning? In my lay opinion it would be : stop incoming flights, enforce quaratine, slow openings, find clusters, vaccinate in areas with outbreaks . And do all of this now and not in four weeks when there is a real problem which got out of hand.

Perhaps all of this is done already, it would definitly be a sign of learning.

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12 hours ago, Padraig said:

Not good.  Why do they say that it is likely that there will be a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to previous peaks) when they don't know whether there is an increase in disease severity?  I know this variant may be more resistant to the vaccines but they don't think it is as bad as the South African variant.

I'm wondering am I missing something (are they actually thinking it is more severe but they aren't sure enough to explicitly say that?).  If they said "it is possible that there will be a substantial resurgence", that would make sense to me.  "Likely" makes it quite alarming.

Maybe this might be because this is predicting what will happen if restrictions are lifted so it's not a direct comparison to what actually happened during the previous peaks where restrictions were belatedly introduced? I don't know whether their modelling took into account the effect of Boris u-turning when he's eventually persuaded things have gone horribly wrong, although it's probably predictable enough by now that I'd think they could include it in the model.

37 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

In absolut numbers the UK infection rate is beautifully low at the moment but if we have learned something about the corona virus over the last year then it is  that it  is a really bad idea to ignore a growing problem . The earlier one reacts the less bad it gets. So is it known already what the UK is planning? In my lay opinion it would be : stop incoming flights, enforce quaratine, slow openings, find clusters, vaccinate in areas with outbreaks . And do all of this now and not in four weeks when there is a real problem which got out of hand.

The current plan appears to be to go ahead with the next stage of re-opening on Monday (this is what is referred to as 'step 3' in the link Raja posted). There would be another fourth stage of re-opening scheduled 5 weeks later when most remaining restrictions would be removed, in his press conference yesterday Boris did seem to be indicating this could be postponed.

India is now on the 'red list' meaning mandatory hotel quarantine for arrivals, but the current clusters seem to have originated from travellers arriving before it was put on the list.

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