Why I think (f)Aegon has the blood to ride a Targaryen dragon.

[Frey family reunion]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd just assume that guy was the king of the region where he lived. This was when the Starks conquered the North and dispossessed/eradicated their rivals

That was my first thought as well, and it may be the case.  But, looking at the location of Sea Dragon Point, it’s about as close to the North beyond the Wall as you can get via sea.  And the fact that the Warg King had an army assembled and COTF allies makes me think that this  alliance probably happened in the area where the COTF were still out and about and the Warg King could have assembled an army without interference.   Which makes me think the Warg King first came to power North of the Wall, and basically invaded South of the Wall without actually going through the Wall.

The fact that this bit of lore is only found in records in the Nightfort also makes me think that this dealt with an enemy that the Night’s Watch was supposed to prevent.  I’m not sure that records of a local territorial dispute would have been kept in the Nightfort.

So my guess is, back in the day, this may have been a guy like Varamyr, only quite a bit more competent and ambitious.  

If so, the parallels to Aegon would definitely be there.

So my guess is like, Aegon did with his fort set up in Westeros, this Warg King would have created his own little “kingdom” on Sea Dragon Point, which became the source of the conflict with the Starks.

[Frey family reunion]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But, quite honestly, I'm pretty much open to the idea that Bloodraven (or Bran himself, if he eventually learns how to properly mess with time) somehow ensured that the Stark children all became skinchangers. From our current understanding Bloodraven likely also doctored the entire 'stag/direwolf killed each other' omen ... so who is to say it was a coincidence that there were direwolf pups for all the Stark children?

It is also possible that the gods saw to it that things go this way. The prince that was promised also isn't some kind of artificial creation. He just arrives when the War for the Dawn is coming, no matter what folks want or do.

I don’t think there are actually “gods” at least not to any different extent that there are or aren’t “gods” in the real world.  I think that there are beliefs that cause people to act certain ways, it just so happens that in this world some of those people are quite powerful.

As for manipulation by Bloodraven, yes possibly, but not in the sense that he can wave a magic weirwood wand and cause things to happen.  I do think it’s possible that Bloodraven steered events towards Aegon V’s line becoming the royal line for example.  And for all we know he may have had something to do with Aegon’s marriage to his Blackwood bride.

If so, then perhaps the reason that he kept an eye on the Starks is due to their own Blackwood ancestor.  

One question I do have from this, is how exactly did Bloodraven view the birth of Eddard and Bran?  Who’s eyes was he spying through?

[Jaenara Belarys]

20 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

One question I do have from this, is how exactly did Bloodraven view the birth of Eddard and Bran?  Who’s eyes was he spying through?

Exactly, it's not as if all the Stark Ladies give birth in the godswood. Ravens? 

[Frey family reunion]

1 minute ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Exactly, it's not as if all the Stark Ladies give birth in the godswood. Ravens? 

At the very least, I would doubt that Catelyn did.  Maybe ravens, but I don’t think a child would be delivered in the rookery.  Perhaps he spied through the stork.  

But seriously, if I had to narrow it down, it would either be through the Maester, the mid-wife or the mom.

[Jaenara Belarys]

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

At the very least, I would doubt that Catelyn did.  Maybe ravens, but I don’t think a child would be delivered in the rookery.  Perhaps he spied through the stork.  

 

I seem to doubt they would give birth in the godswood. It doesn't seem like a very good place. Westerosi ladies seem to be confined to bed (How boring) in the last months of pregnancy. 

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But seriously, if I had to narrow it down, it would either be through the Maester, the mid-wife or the mom.

How would he warg into them? We see that Varamyr can't. And Thistle knows he's doing it. 

[Frey family reunion]

6 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I seem to doubt they would give birth in the godswood. It doesn't seem like a very good place. Westerosi ladies seem to be confined to bed (How boring) in the last months of pregnancy. 

How would he warg into them? We see that Varamyr can't. And Thistle knows he's doing it. 

You raise a good point.  I mean we do know that the very least the mom would probably be a little distracted at the time, maybe he has a peek when someone’s defense are down.  

Unlike Varamyr, Bloodraven can apparently telepathically communicate with someone’s subconscious through their dreams.  So he might be able to more subtly enter into someone’s thoughts.  

Or he’s not being literal.  That he just spies in around the time of their birth but didn’t actually view their birth.

Or of course, he could be lying to Bran to try and get Bran to trust him.

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

You raise a good point.  I mean we do know that the very least the mom would probably be a little distracted at the time, maybe he has a peek when someone’s defense are down.  

 

I think a raven would be the most likely. He has hundreds of them in his murder. 

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Or of course, he could be lying to Bran to try and get Bran to trust him.

It would be in keeping with his character, but if Bran somehow finds out, won't that derail his training since he won't trust a thing Lord Bloodraven says? 

[Frey family reunion]

7 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I think a raven would be the most likely. He has hundreds of them in his murder

I guess they could be spying through the bedroom window. As creepy as that is.

[Jaenara Belarys]

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I guess they could be spying through the bedroom window. As creepy as that is.

"Look, milady! We have an audience!" 

[Russell18]

2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

"Look, milady! We have an audience!" 

Yeah, that was the punchline 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That was my first thought as well, and it may be the case.  But, looking at the location of Sea Dragon Point, it’s about as close to the North beyond the Wall as you can get via sea.  And the fact that the Warg King had an army assembled and COTF allies makes me think that this  alliance probably happened in the area where the COTF were still out and about and the Warg King could have assembled an army without interference.   Which makes me think the Warg King first came to power North of the Wall, and basically invaded South of the Wall without actually going through the Wall.

I don't think that there is any substance to this. I'd go with the Warg King being a local First Man petty king in a remote location where folks were closer to the Children and their ways until the Starks of Winterfell crushed that particular culture. They would have done that with the crannogmen, too, one imagines, if they ever had the strength to do it. But they did not, so they had to take the marriage alliance route.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don’t think there are actually “gods” at least not to any different extent that there are or aren’t “gods” in the real world.  I think that there are beliefs that cause people to act certain ways, it just so happens that in this world some of those people are quite powerful.

I don't mean literal gods, either, just circumstances and forces and destiny. And the idea certainly is that the prince that was promised as well as the magical Stark children come now because the Others threaten humanity.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for manipulation by Bloodraven, yes possibly, but not in the sense that he can wave a magic weirwood wand and cause things to happen.  I do think it’s possible that Bloodraven steered events towards Aegon V’s line becoming the royal line for example.  And for all we know he may have had something to do with Aegon’s marriage to his Blackwood bride.

Well, that Bloodraven would have been happy that Egg married one of his Blackwood kin is pretty obvious. But that was a love match and he most likely had nothing to do with Betha and Aegon falling in love. And at the Great Council Egg was only the only viable candidate unless you wanted a (long) regency government.

In relation to the greenseer thing keep in mind that Bloodraven opened Bran's third eye. There is some aspect to this talent that can be influenced by outside forces.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

One question I do have from this, is how exactly did Bloodraven view the birth of Eddard and Bran?  Who’s eyes was he spying through?

Greenseers can look beyond the trees when they abilities grow stronger. The weirwoods seem to be just focal points they need early in their training. Later they see everything. Bloodraven could not watch his long dead siblings any other way, considering that the Targaryens have no weirwoods at KL.

[Hippocras]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

My issues there are pretty clear - historically there are no Stark or Blackwood skinchangers/greenseers save one exception - Bloodraven and the present generation of Stark children.

We don't actually know that. You keep making the exact same mistake: confusing information not yet revealed as information that will never come. There are two huge novels left in the main series, probably at least two more Dunk and Egg novellas, and another history book as well. The secrets are revealing themselves slowly, in part because the characters themselves don't know them all yet.

@Frey family reunion is completely correct that the social pressure to keep such things hidden has been a very large factor ever since the Andal invasions. Furthermore, the history people DO have access to was written down by maesters, who are precisely the same people who have been denying the existence of such things and suppressing people's expression of it. So if you were a skinchanger, you would not be inclinded to tell the maester about it and it would then not get written down.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If George wanted to sell us either as 'a magical dynasty' then he clearly failed at that, especially when he wrote a history book where he could have included Stark wargs or Blackwood skinchangers easily enough.

He wrote a history from the POV of maesters. And he doesn't WANT us to know everything right away and so easily. There are SUPPOSED to be surprises and discoveries, and things that people have kept hidden. And one of the fascinating things is that he doesn't even need to work that hard to keep things hidden because people are so biased to look only at the paternal line.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As I said, it would have been remarkably easy to include direct or indirect clues that this or that Stark king of old was a skinchanger. And that skinchangers will use their ability to exert power and dominate others we see with Varamyr. He is one who clawed his way to the top of the food chain with his abilities, but a Stark prince born with this gift would use it in a similar manner - to control his subjects and expand his empire. And if that ever happened, history and singers wouldn't have forgotten it.

This is where you seem intent on ignoring the discussion of recessive traits, and the need for things to come from BOTH parents.

I will give as an example my son. He has red hair, as do I. For some people this fact may not seem surprising, but when you understand how red hair works genetically, then it very much IS a surprise. Nowhere in living memory in his father's family tree is there a single person with the slightest trace of red hair. So his father, without having red hair himself, was a carrier of a red hair gene that was passed on from some unknown ancestor more than 90 years ago. That is a long time. And, even if my husband is apparently a carrier of this gene, there is no guarantee at all that his siblings are carriers.

Ok, now mix the apparent randomness of the appearance of recessive traits with the need for a certain buildup of magical forces in the world. Just as dragons are suddenly able to return, warlock magic is gaining power, White Walkers are back, and wildfire is getting easier to make, suddenly people with the right genetics to become skinchangers are able to ACCESS their ability, which they could not do before.

The point here is that it does not NEED to have specifically appeared in the family throughout Stark history at all times, regardless of the context and conditions of the time, for it to be a genetic trait. Your argument against is invalid.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The focus on the Blackwood family as being 'special' is also kind of weird in light of the fact that the Starks are the First Men house at the core of the story. If there is a magical First Men family it should be they, not the Blackwoods. After all, the Blackwoods are, at best, just extras in the novels. They are like the Velaryons there.

The "Stark" family is a patrilineal construct. It explains absolutely nothing about the FEMALE line. What I am discussing with the Blackwoods is not so much the male Blackwood family line (although that is of course a factor in recessive traits passing on) but in the various WOMEN from House Blackwood who are relevant elsewhere in this discussion of magic and who has it and who does not. The patrilineal Blackwood line is therefore one side of a complex puzzle that is actually about the women too, and where they went.

The facts are very clear: dragonriding and bonding abilities are very very much related to who one's parents were. Genetics are involved. And if so, there needs to be an explanation for why it does not matter for Dany's dragonriding abilities that she is (if she who believes herself to be) a Blackwood by the female line.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 Folks who don't marry their sisters or who were in Westeros since the Dawn Age are related to everybody to some degree.

Indeed. But recessive genes require BOTH parents to be carriers. Not just the men. Family names are ENTIRELY PATRILINEAL CONSTRUCTS. Without tracing the women, you don't know which PAIRINGS of people meet the requirements for the recessive genes to pass on and to manifest.

 

Basically what it comes down to is that magic (whether it be dragon magic or warging) almost certainly has its roots in BLOOD. Blood magic. This is very likely a key thing, because of lines in the books such as "you have my blood" (Ned to Jon). There is no reason at all IMO to believe as you do that while dragonriding magic is passed on to (some of) those who share the same blood, other kinds of magic we find in the story are random "Chosen One" events. No. It is in the blood.

 

The Blackwood family is nowhere near as insignificant in the history as you claim. Just before the conquest they are specifically mentioned as being the most powerful family in the Riverlands aside from House Hoare, who were resented by all. If House Tully was chosen to lead the Riverlands after the conquest, that is because the Tullys picked the Targaryen side first, and because the Blackwoods contributed less to the conquest having been weakened by a recent conflict with the Brackens. But history started BEFORE the conquest, not at the time of it. So looking at who was who before the conquest, we see the Blackwoods as at several points a Paramount family with ties to House Durrandon. A Blackwood, named Shiera no less, was the ancestor of the Storm King, integrating Blackwood blood into the eventual House Baratheon by the female line - and not the only time. The Blackwood ties to the Storm King were an undercurrent of rebellion against Hoare rule.

So if House Blackwood was linked by marriage to House Durrandon then why did they side with Aegon for the conquest? No doubt they were smart enough to fear the dragons, certainly. But I think it is probably more complicated than that. They probably had OTHER marriage ties too. Marriage ties to House Tully almost certainly or they would not so easily have accepted the Tullys as paramount and Edmyn would not easily have secured the peace there.  But other Houses fed and were fed by the Blackwood line, including, almost certainly, House Velaryon and House Celtigar. Why almost certainly? Because the Blackwoods, as the largest power in the Riverlands aside from House Hoare, would have been seen as significant and important allies for those two Houses who controlled ocean trade originating from the Riverlands. The point therefore is not that the Blackwoods themselves are all special, but simply that TRACING where their daughters and second sons went is in fact key to understanding BOTH sides of the various bloodlines. And BOTH sides make EQUAL contributions to genetics and are needed for recessive traits.

 

 

[Mister Smikes]

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And it is also kind of weird to assume that there are 'special bloodlines' among the heavily interrelated nobility of the Seven Kingdoms. Folks who don't marry their sisters or who were in Westeros since the Dawn Age are related to everybody to some degree.

Very true from the perspective of rational scientific genetics.   But then again, Robert Arryn, ultra-distant descendant of the House of the legendary Winged Knight, does have this odd flap-flap-flappy thing going on with his (surprisingly strong) little arms.

[LynnS]

9 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Very true from the perspective of rational scientific genetics.   But then again, Robert Arryn, ultra-distant descendant of the House of the legendary Winged Knight, does have this odd flap-flap-flappy thing going on with his (surprisingly strong) little arms.

If the maester wasn't drugging him to stop him from dreaming;  I wonder if he would be one of those kids who thinks he could fly by jumping off a tall cliff. 

[Frey family reunion]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Ok, now mix the apparent randomness of the appearance of recessive traits with the need for a certain buildup of magical forces in the world. Just as dragons are suddenly able to return, warlock magic is gaining power, White Walkers are back, and wildfire is getting easier to make, suddenly people with the right genetics to become skinchangers are able to ACCESS their ability, which they could not do before.

I pretty much agreed with everything you said in the post, except linking skinchanging and White Walkers to the increase in the others magics you listed.  

As for the White Walkers their appearance seems to predate the rise in fire and blood magic that seemed to gain potency around the time of Dany's eggs hatching (or around the time the red comet passed over if you think that this is a more likely trigger).  

Now the suspicion that the Weirwoods eyes may be, umm reopening, is interesting.  It certainly implies that there is an enhanced sentience that some are feeling around the woods.  But this seems to predate the increase in the other magic we heard about.

As for skinchanging, we don't have any reason to believe that they were able to access their abilities at a greater extent at the time the fire magic increased in potency.

Nothing from Varamyr's pov would seem to indicate that at least.  And his pov seems to be the one that GRRM uses to give us a rudimentary overview of skinchanging.  

Turning towards the idea of a matrilineal line, I think it was Cat's matrilineal line connecting wit Ned's own genetics that he also may have inherited through his mother's line, that led to the abilities of their children.

If the direwolves had not been found, my guess is those abilities would have started to show if the children had started to raise other pets or perhaps became very attached to their horses, or took up hawking, ect.

But it was the direwolves that the children became attached to and were assigned with the task of feeding and raising.  So they were the ones that the children's telepathic abilities linked to.

Now having said that, I'm a bit suspicious that one or more of the direwolves may have had their own latent telepathic ability.  And if so, perhaps that does indeed accelerate the process a bit.  At the very least, I suspect that Ghost may have been born with a latent telepathic ability.  

And yes, as for the various noble families in Westeros, I suspect that there may be some supressed skinchangers amongst them as well.  And the group that may be responsible for the supressing is the Maesters.  If Cat gave birth to so many telepaths, it wouldn't surprise me if her sister may have had a similar bloodline.  And it just so happens that the Maesters are constantly doping up Sweetrobin.  (who just so happens to hear "singing" that no one else can).

[Mister Smikes]

44 minutes ago, LynnS said:

If the maester wasn't drugging him to stop him from dreaming;  I wonder if he would be one of those kids who thinks he could fly by jumping off a tall cliff. 

The kid has a healthy instinct of self-preservation when it comes to heights.  He may have been brave, but was certainly not fearless, when he stepped out over the stone bridge that had paralyzed Catelyn.

[Frey family reunion]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think that there is any substance to this. I'd go with the Warg King being a local First Man petty king in a remote location where folks were closer to the Children and their ways until the Starks of Winterfell crushed that particular culture. They would have done that with the crannogmen, too, one imagines, if they ever had the strength to do it. But they did not, so they had to take the marriage alliance route

While I really enjoyed the possibility of a parallel between Aegon and the Warg King, upon further delving into Sea Dragon Point, you’re probably right.

Quote

Sea Dragon Point had not always been as thinly peopled as it was now. Old ruins could still be found amongst its hills and bogs, the remains of ancient strongholds of the First Men. In the high places, there were weirwood circles left by the children of the forest.

So the idea of an isolated area where the First Men may have mingled with the COTF is certainly supported in the text here.  Or at least the possibility is certainly there.  

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

While I really enjoyed the possibility of a parallel between Aegon and the Warg King, upon further delving into Sea Dragon Point, you’re probably right.

So the idea of an isolated area where the First Men may have mingled with the COTF is certainly supported in the text here.  Or at least the possibility is certainly there.  

By the way, your idea of Sea Dragon Point being a place where somebody might invade is something I contemplated prior to the publication of ADwD. I thought (and still sort of think) that the Others might send wights across the Bay of Ice to Sea Dragon Point while the Wall still stands. This could be a way to wreak havoc before the direct route is a possibility.

After all, we should expect that folks might destroy the Bridge of Skulls before that ends up becoming a way the Others could use to march wights into the Seven Kingdoms.

[Frey family reunion]

8 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The point therefore is not that the Blackwoods themselves are all special, but simply that TRACING where their daughters and second sons went is in fact key to understanding BOTH sides of the various bloodlines.

I agree with this.  And while I may certainly be reading more into this exchange than actually exists, there may be a hint as to the special nature of Blackwood girls in the conversation between Lord Blackwood and Jaime:

Quote

“Done, then. But for one last thing.”
“A hostage.”
“Yes, my lord. You have a daughter, I believe.”
“Bethany.” Lord Tytos looked stricken. “I also have two brothers and a sister. A pair of widowed aunts. Nieces, nephews, cousins. I had thought you might consent …”
“It must be a child of your blood.”

“Bethany is only eight. A gentle girl, full of laughter. She has never been more than a day’s ride from my hall.”

…

“I will accept Hoster as our hostage.”
Blackwood’s relief was palpable.

this is probably nothing more than an indication that the Lords need a daughter to arrange marriage alliances, or perhaps even more mundane lay that Lord Tytos is just very fond of his only daughter.

But with all the (or at least my) talk of perhaps skinchanging only able to be inherited through the female line, it does make me wonder if the Blackwoods may attach an even stronger value to their daughters than other Houses may.  If so, it wouldn’t surprise me if we learn that it was a common practice for the Blackwoods to marry back into the family their first cousins.  Which is the sneaky way to keep a maternal line going in a patriarchal family.

ETA: surprisingly (or perhaps not so surprisingly) this has happened fairly recently in the South.  Specifically, Olenna Tyrell’s daughter was married back into her Redwyne family.

[Hippocras]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for skinchanging, we don't have any reason to believe that they were able to access their abilities at a greater extent at the time the fire magic increased in potency.

We do, South of the Wall. Though I fully agree that these things were not that strongly connected North of the Wall, and it is interesting of course to discuss why that is.