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Nathan Stark

Dany's dragons did NOT cause magic to return

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To know when magic began to reappear someone has to take into account that the PTWP was born 16 years ago, be it Daenerys or Jon. And even if Jon is Azor Ahai (I think he is, tho), Daenerys is still a major factor to magic, which can be originated back to her birth without her being the PTWP. Just sayin.

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20 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

"The dragon eats horse and sheep alike.". Dragons are far better. 

ok sure;)

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16 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

To know when magic began to reappear someone has to take into account that the PTWP was born 16 years ago, be it Daenerys or Jon. And even if Jon is Azor Ahai (I think he is, tho), Daenerys is still a major factor to magic, which can be originated back to her birth without her being the PTWP. Just sayin.

yeah, and Aegon knew that the dragons must come to Westeros 

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2 hours ago, LynnS said:

If the comet has the affect of increasing fire magic; and since they have a periodic orbit; then it's possible that the WW's or the COTF know that the comet is about to appear.  My guess is the COTF would know even though they don't have a written record; they have history in the weirwoods.  If they know in advance of the comets appearance, perhaps they started tooling up before it's arrival.

I don't know if the WW's appearance is related to the red comet or not.  But it's an interesting thought.

As for "fire magic", it sure didn't seem to dissipate after the comet passed the planet.  So if they are connected the comet's proximity may have jump started certain magic, but that magic isn't dependant on the closenesss of the comet.  But having said that...

I have a suspicion that our red comet may have been the same comet seen by Rhaegar over King's landing at the time of his son's conception.   Perhaps it didn't cause the same stir because it was less visible.

If that's the case, then either the comet's orbit just happened to be closer to the planet's orbit this time around, and if so, then we shouldn't expect to see the comet again for another 16 or 17 years.

Or, the comet may actually be orbiting around the planet.  If so, then the fact that the comet appears much larger in the sky than it did 16 or 17 years ago could indicate that the comet's orbit is increasingly tightning around the planet.  If so then we should expect the next sighting of the comet to occur sooner and the comet to be even closer to the planet.  Perhaps close enough to make planetfall.

It might also explain if the comet is connected to the fire magic that the fire magic hasn't waned yet.  It may be that the comet isn't as far away as we think, and may be coming in for a third and perhaps fatal pass.

If the White Walkers are connected to the red comet, it makes me wonder why.  Especially if this comet is destined to make landfall.  If it is, then someone who is privy to future events may have reached back and created the White Walkers in response to the presence of the comet.

I find it interesting that so far, the White Walkers have been fairly limited in their contacts with the people north of the Wall.  It appears to me that they are trying to drive the populace south of the Wall.  

If you look at the comet's path from ACOK, it headed direct over the glacier/ice shelf north of the Frostfangs.  So if it follows the same path, I suppose it's possible that it may make landfall there as well.  

Which thematically makes me think of the legend of AA and his sword lighbringer.  He thrust his sword into the heart of his spouse.  

If we think of the red comet as the flaming sword, it would be interesting if it crashed into the "heart of winter", aka the northern ice shelf.

(Which is what many pseudo scientists have argued caused a mass extinction event in North America.  A comet either strking or nearly striking a glacier causing a great flood.).

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2 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

If that's the case, then either the comet's orbit just happened to be closer to the planet's orbit this time around, and if so, then we shouldn't expect to see the comet again for another 16 or 17 years.

It could have an eccentric orbit and I think GRRM has said that there is some magical aspect to it.  I think it has a much longer orbital period of 6000 years.  I think it shows up in various religious mythologies, the main ones being the red religion and it's connection to Azor Ahai and the Andals and their iconography of the bleeding stars.  The Qaartheen myth of two moons in the sky as well.  

The mythology that the moon cracked and a thousand thousand dragons poured forth; is akin to the story of Nissa Nissa who's cry of agony and ecstasy caused a crack in the face of the moon.  The crack in the face of the moon is likely the comet trail as it passes between Planetos and the moon.  The thousand thousand dragons, a meteor shower caused by passing through the remnants of a comets tail.  We get the perseids every year for the same reason but without a comet passing.

If the Andals were compelled to invade Westeros for some reason;  like everyone else, the comet has special meaning to them and their fortunes.  We don't know when the Andals first invaded but it could be as early as 6,000 years in the past.  That would make the previous appearance and the first long night 12,000 years (before the Wall was raised).  

If the written record only arrived with the Andals, then we would have no record from the First Men.  The only others who may know about it are the COTF.  And we don't know what the Citadel, the obvious astronomers and comet watchers may know of it.  It's curious that Luwin receives a Myrish lens for watching the sky not long before the comets arrival.   Or what the ancient books in Valyria might say about it. 

You can't really mistake a comet for a falling star.  So we have to take Rhaegar at his word.  But if a comet has an entry orbit to the sun that is further away than it's swing by Planetos when it is can be mistaken for a moon;  we'd have a record of it's appearance every 16 or 17 years.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

If that's the case, then either the comet's orbit just happened to be closer to the planet's orbit this time around, and if so, then we shouldn't expect to see the comet again for another 16 or 17 years.

I am still thinking about this.  I have a problem with the concept of a comet that has it's center of orbit around a planet because of my bias that a comet's center of orbit takes it around the sun.   Also because in Irri's story, she says that the moon (comet) flew too close to the sun, drinking it's fires until it cracked and dragons poured forth. 

If this is an observed phenomena that gets explained through a religious context;  I don't see how it's possible for anyone to observe something that distant with the naked eye or why only some cultures have a similar story.

Unless the comet doesn't pass between Planetos and the moon but rather it passes between Planetos and the sun and drinking the fires of the sun is an explanation for a solar eclipse.  Since observers on the Planet won't have a concept of how distant the sun is to Planetos; the eclipse might also look like the moon/comet is flying too close to the sun.  A solar eclipse would not be seen by everyone on Planetos.

This might also be a solar eclipse:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion VIII

Finally he gave it up and made his way up top for a breath of night air. The Selaesori Qhoran had furled her big striped sail for the night, and her decks were all but deserted. One of the mates was on the sterncastle, and amidships Moqorro sat by his brazier, where a few small flames still danced amongst the embers.

Only the brightest stars were visible, all to the west. A dull red glow lit the sky to the northeast, the color of a blood bruise. Tyrion had never seen a bigger moon. Monstrous, swollen, it looked as if it had swallowed the sun and woken with a fever. Its twin, floating on the sea beyond the ship, shimmered red with every wave. "What hour is this?" he asked Moqorro. "That cannot be sunrise unless the east has moved. Why is the sky red?"

As you have pointed out before;

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys IX

"When will he be as he was?" Dany demanded.

"When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east," said Mirri Maz Duur. "When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then he will return, and not before."

 

Edited by LynnS

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2 hours ago, LynnS said:

I am still thinking about this.  I have a problem with the concept of a comet that has it's center of orbit around a planet because of my bias that a comet's center of orbit takes it around the sun.   Also because in Irri's story, she says that the moon (comet) flew too close to the sun, drinking it's fires until it cracked and dragons poured forth. 

If this is an observed phenomena that gets explained through a religious context;  I don't see how it's possible for anyone to observe something that distant with the naked eye or why only some cultures have a similar story.

Unless the comet doesn't pass between Planetos and the moon but rather it passes between Planetos and the sun and drinking the fires of the sun is an explanation for a solar eclipse.  Since observers on the Planet won't have a concept of how distant the sun is to Planetos; the eclipse might also look like the moon/comet is flying too close to the sun.  A solar eclipse would not be seen by everyone on Planetos.

This might also be a solar eclipse:

As you have pointed out before;

 

I agree with you that comets don't typically orbit around planets.  The issue is that we're dealing with a work of fantasy, albeit fantasy sprinkled with some realism.  

So my question was, if someone or something were trying to bring about a Long Night, how would they go about it?  

Looking back at other extinction level events, many in the science (and pseudo science) community theorized that major historical extinction level events occurred due to a comet strike.  Look up the Young Dryas event.  Ignatius Donnely wrote a couple of influential pseudo science (almost science fiction) books in the late 1800's.  One of them dealt with his theories on Atlantis, in a book that would be very influential to how future sci fi and fantasy authors would depict Atlantis.  The other book he wrote was Ragnorak, an Age of Fire and Gravel..  His theory in this book was that the apocalyptic tales in various religions of the world were caused by a near extinction via a comet hitting an ice shelf in Greenland.  Causing great floods, and fire, and debris to show onto the planet.

So now heading back to ASOIAF, let's say that something wanted to bring on a Long Night, how do they go about it?  In the game Dungeons and Dragons, there is a spell called comet strike.  Where your wizard can literally call a comet to fly down from the heavens and smite his enemy.

What if, something similar has happened in this tale?  Something, very long lived, and very patient, used an immense amount of magic to capture a comet, and drag it down to the planet, to hopefully create another Long Night to smite its enemies.

Now, it appears that most magic in ASOIAF is fueled by human sacrifice.  Especially through the sacrifice of people with special bloodlines.  So, looking back in history, is there an event where a massive amount of people with special abilities were "sacrificed" at once?  And sure enough we have the Doom of Valyria.

So the question is was the Doom actually used to fuel a major casting of magic?

Perhaps magic used to reach out and grab a comet and drag it down to the planet.

So let's assume this is what George had in mind.  If so, the one issue that George would have about causing a heavenly body to strike the planet, is that heavenly bodies don't move in straight lines.  They move in elliptical orbit.  So what would happen if someone were able to direct a comet into the planet?  The comet would basically shift orbits.  It wouldn't make a straight line to the planet.  Instead it would start orbiting the planet.  And the orbit would get successively smaller.  Until eventually the comet would enter into the atmosphere and make landfall.

Which may be what's happening with our red comet.  It's a comet that would come successively closer to the planet with each pass and its appearance would become more and more frequent as its orbit got smaller.

Which would allow George to bring the red comet back for one more pass, yet not have to wait nearly as long.

As for a comet getting too close to the sun.  Remember, that this tale is told through the eye of the beholder.  If indeed a comet flew too close to the sun, it wouldn't be visible from any observers on the planet.  The sun's too big and bright.

In reality what probably happened in that tale, is that the comet got very close to the planet, (close enough perhaps to appear as a second moon) and at some point the comet's orbit put it between the observers on certai parts of the planet and the sun.  Making it appear that the comet flew into the sun itself.

In reality, what probably happened is that as the comet entered the planet's atmosphere it broke up.  Thus creating the Qarth tale told to Dany.

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18 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

In reality, what probably happened is that as the comet entered the planet's atmosphere it broke up

Yes, I'm with you on this.  The mass of the comet would be less going forward but still bright enough to be mistaken for a moon.  The debris would be characterized as a thousand thousand dragons pouring forth.  Some of it could strike the planet causing a nuclear style winter and blanket the atmosphere for a time (since we don't get an extinction level event).   Or it could be that this was always the comet's trajectory.  

What we do have are powers that can see into the future and perhaps take advantage of the long night it causes.

I'm on the fence, where pulling down the comet or changing Planetos' orbit is concerned.  George did muse (jokingly) at one point that maybe he should let the comet strike the planet.  So I don't know.  I'm a hard one to convince.

The Kindly Man seems to imply that the FM had something to do with the Doom.  Moqorro says that delving too deeply into those fires was the cause.  Either way, I think the Smoking Sea is the top end of a super cauldera gaging by the explosion and destruction.  A magical cause is more difficult to explain.  But I totally buy that it is a source of magic that can be used.

 

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@Frey family reunion and @LynnS, I wonder if you've checked out LML's theory about the red comet? It touches on your discussion, and I think is the most detailed theory of how the original Long Night occurred that I've come across. Definately worth checking out.

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9 minutes ago, Nathan Stark said:

@Frey family reunion and @LynnS, I wonder if you've checked out LML's theory about the red comet? It touches on your discussion, and I think is the most detailed theory of how the original Long Night occurred that I've come across. Definately worth checking out.

Yes, I'm familiar with LML's take on it.

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20 minutes ago, Nathan Stark said:

@Frey family reunion and @LynnS, I wonder if you've checked out LML's theory about the red comet? It touches on your discussion, and I think is the most detailed theory of how the original Long Night occurred that I've come across. Definately worth checking out.

I'm familiar with it and I like a lot of it.  I think he spotted a lot of relevant symbolism.  And probably it is what caused me to go down this train of thought.

My issues with his theory is that I think he's being a bit too on the nose with the symbolism.  His theory is that the comet is going to strike the moon causing it to be destroyed and raining down debris on the planet.

Which is all well and good, except for the fact that this is going to cause more than a Long Night, it's going to cause the planet to be uninhabitable.  So in other words, no Dream of Spring.   It's also hard for a comet to be able to completely destroy a moon.  Assuming their moon is roughly a similar size to ours.

What a moon basically is is a natural object orbiting around a planet.  My thought is, if the Red Comet has been caught in our planet's orbit for whatever reason, then techinically speaking that comet becomes a second moon.

My other issue is that he's taking the Qartheen tale a bit too literally.  He argues that there was once a second moon that was destroyed by a comet.  I think if there had actually been a second moon, more cultures would have incorporated it in their mythology.  But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Instead, what I think happened is a comet came so close to the planet that it appeared at least briefly to be a second moon at least to some viewers.  Hence the tale.  And it was this comet, not any actual moon, that broke up upon entering the planet's atmosphere.

My guess is GRRM has been heavily influenced by some of the scientific theories (and quasi scientific theories) out there that have posited theories about a comet strike causing an ice age.  And he's playing on that only set in a fantasy world.  Where perhaps it's possible that magic may be involved.

And I think that it's going to involve both the red comet, which has previously been likened to a sword, and a red one at that, and a glacier, which has been named the Heart of Winter.  The same comet into glacier dynamic that a lot of these theories have speculated.

 

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5 hours ago, LynnS said:

I'm on the fence, where pulling down the comet or changing Planetos' orbit is concerned.  George did muse (jokingly) at one point that maybe he should let the comet strike the planet.  So I don't know.  I'm a hard one to convince.

The Kindly Man seems to imply that the FM had something to do with the Doom.  Moqorro says that delving too deeply into those fires was the cause.  Either way, I think the Smoking Sea is the top end of a super cauldera gaging by the explosion and destruction.  A magical cause is more difficult to explain.  But I totally buy that it is a source of magic that can be used.

I understand being on the fence on this theory.  I'm probably on the fence a bit myself with it.  

But as for your second part, if you were the weirnet and you needed assistance in a revenge scheme, you would probably "hire" the very best wouldn't you?  And there is none bettern than the FM.  ;)

But it wouldn't suprise me if there weren't human agents who have taken up the weirnet's cause.  Perhaps human agents connected with a greenseer or greenseers who have directly been in communication with the weirwoods.  And if we're talking death on a massive scale, it wouldn't surprise me if FM might be involved.  After all they do seem to be one of the planet's biggest death cults.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I understand being on the fence on this theory.  I'm probably on the fence a bit myself with it.  

I revise all the time.  :D  I think there are decidedly male and female aspects to these prophecies (AA and PWIP) and they can't really be separated because one heralds the other.  In Irri's tale, 'moon is woman'.  As it is in most cultures, the moon is tied to the monthly cycle and the menses.  If the comet is mistaken for a moon, then it's a bleeding moon (star).  The warrior of this story is husband of the moon, the sun.

So I don't think it's a mistake that Rhaegar, Aemon and Mel equate one prophecy with the other.  They just make the prophecy male centric even though in Mel's version of AA, Nissa Nissa plays an important part of the story.  It's subordinate to the story of the warrior and his sword.  

Rhaegar also seems to equate the PWIP with the story of the warrior and the appearance of the comet so he seems familiar with the AA legend.  However, there is no comet associated with his birth so this changes to Aegon.  The curiosity is that he says a comet appeared when Aegon was conceived and not when he was born.   So I think it likely that a comet appeared and Rhaegar ran off to Elia's bed.  The problem with trying to make prophecy happen is that prophecy unfolds in its own way and time.  My guess is that Rhaegar knew the comet was a herald of the birth to come in the legend, so he tries to make it happen and this is why we get the story of a comet at Aegon's conception.  Mel is making the same mistake of forcing the prophecy or trying to make it happen with Stannis. 

We don't know anything really about the PWIP prophecy but Aemon seems to think it has to do with the birth of dragons.  Rhaegar may have thought it had something to do with his line and maybe it does; but Dany is the PWIP and the dragons prove it  to quote Aemon.  It doesn't make her AA.  It makes her the mother of dragons and the bride of fire.

The prophecy of the PWIP has unfolded and we are still waiting on the part of the prophecy it heralds - The Warrior of Light.  I think we are going to be in for some big surprises concerning Jaime.

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Bran III

He looked east, and saw a galley racing across the waters of the Bite. He saw his mother sitting alone in a cabin, looking at a bloodstained knife on a table in front of her, as the rowers pulled at their oars and Ser Rodrik leaned across a rail, shaking and heaving. A storm was gathering ahead of them, a vast dark roaring lashed by lightning, but somehow they could not see it.

He looked south, and saw the great blue-green rush of the Trident. He saw his father pleading with the king, his face etched with grief. He saw Sansa crying herself to sleep at night, and he saw Arya watching in silence and holding her secrets hard in her heart. There were shadows all around them. One shadow was dark as ash, with the terrible face of a hound. Another was armored like the sun, golden and beautiful. Over them both loomed a giant in armor made of stone, but when he opened his visor, there was nothing inside but darkness and thick black blood.

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Bran III

Bran was staring at his arms, his legs. He was so skinny, just skin stretched taut over bones. Had he always been so thin? He tried to remember. A face swam up at him out of the grey mist, shining with light, golden. "The things I do for love," it said.

Bran screamed.

The crow took to the air, cawing. Not that, it shrieked at him. Forget that, you do not need it now, put it aside, put it away. It landed on Bran's shoulder, and pecked at him, and the shining golden face was gone.

 

 

Edited by LynnS

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2 hours ago, LynnS said:

I revise all the time.  :D  I think there are decidedly male and female aspects to these prophecies (AA and PWIP) and they can't really be separated because one heralds the other.  In Irri's tale, 'moon is woman'.  As it is in most cultures, the moon is tied to the monthly cycle and the menses.  If the comet is mistaken for a moon, then it's a bleeding moon (star).  The warrior of this story is husband of the moon, the sun.

So I don't think it's a mistake that Rhaegar, Aemon and Mel equate one prophecy with the other.  They just make the prophecy male centric even though in Mel's version of AA, Nissa Nissa plays an important part of the story.  It's subordinate to the story of the warrior and his sword.  

Rhaegar also seems to equate the PWIP with the story of the warrior and the appearance of the comet so he seems familiar with the AA legend.  However, there is no comet associated with his birth so this changes to Aegon.  The curiosity is that he says a comet appeared when Aegon was conceived and not when he was born.   So I think it likely that a comet appeared and Rhaegar ran off to Elia's bed.  The problem with trying to make prophecy happen is that prophecy unfolds in its own way and time.  My guess is that Rhaegar knew the comet was a herald of the birth to come in the legend, so he tries to make it happen and this is why we get the story of a comet at Aegon's conception.  Mel is making the same mistake of forcing the prophecy or trying to make it happen with Stannis. 

We don't know anything really about the PWIP prophecy but Aemon seems to think it has to do with the birth of dragons.  Rhaegar may have thought it had something to do with his line and maybe it does; but Dany is the PWIP and the dragons prove it  to quote Aemon.  It doesn't make her AA.  It makes her the mother of dragons and the bride of fire.

The prophecy of the PWIP has unfolded and we are still waiting on the part of the prophecy it heralds - The Warrior of Light.  I think we are going to be in for some big surprises concerning Jaime.

 

As Martin says, I don't believe in heros I believe in people doing heroic things. So there could be an aspect of TPtwP in a lot of people. I don't really feel like Jamie fits, but thats just me. Hes certainly going to do something, what with the weirwood dream about him and Brienne and all. And that dream does feel kinda Other related. Maybe. When the White shadows of the kingsguard first came up I thought they where Others. But honestly no. I think that Jamie has more to do with the Dorne/Jon/Lyanna/Ned/Robert/Arys/Rhaegar interaction than the TPtwP, but its all connected so idk

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On 5/7/2021 at 7:18 PM, Nathan Stark said:

There are three magical events that take place before Dany lit her fateful pyre. 

- Will, Gared, and Waymar encountering the Others in the prologue.

- Bran being visited in his sleep by the three-eyed-crow.

- Mirri Maz Duur invoking blood magic to "save" Khal Drogo's life.

Several things to remember:

  • Magic is never said to have left the entire world, only the "western" world. There are a few hints of this when we're told things like how pyromancers powers faded and are then coming back in ACoK, and sorcerers of the east visited Westeros to try to awaken the Targ dragons and so on and seemed flummoxed when their powers did not work. The theory seems to be that magic ceased operating in the western world either as a result of the Doom or the dragons dying out. Thus magic still existing in the east (as with Mirri Maz Duur) is fine.
  • Magic seems to function beyond the Wall just fine, with some theories revolving around the idea that the raising of the Wall severely weakened the use of magic in Westeros south of the Wall long before the Targs showed up (all of the mightiest displays of magic in Westeros, the Hammer of the Waters, the flooding of the Neck and the War for the Dawn all predate the Wall being constructed).
  • Very low-level magic, such as being able to use the weirwood trees or speak in dreams/visions, seems to have been possible even with magic at a low ebb in Westeros.

I believe George has noted the chicken/egg situation of magic returning and the dragons being around being related, but it's unclear what is causing what (though it is interesting that the dragon eggs were able to be hatched in the east after the last clutches, and possibly the exact same eggs, failed to hatch in Westeros).

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And Aegon knew that dragons must come to Westeros, and the Targaryen seer back in Valyria knew that the doom was coming and that the Targaryens must survive it, so I feel like the Doom was one half of a great balancing, but if the dragons had died out completely, then there would be nothing to balance the Others and it would go to far in the other direction

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The elements must balance each other out.  Ice will kill life and fire will bring life  back.  Fire nurtures life and fights the darkness.  Dany will build a new empire after the long night has passed. Magic will be a part of it.  

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Orion2 said:

As Martin says, I don't believe in heros I believe in people doing heroic things. So there could be an aspect of TPtwP in a lot of people. I don't really feel like Jamie fits, but thats just me. Hes certainly going to do something, what with the weirwood dream about him and Brienne and all. And that dream does feel kinda Other related. Maybe. When the White shadows of the kingsguard first came up I thought they where Others. But honestly no. I think that Jamie has more to do with the Dorne/Jon/Lyanna/Ned/Robert/Arys/Rhaegar interaction than the TPtwP, but its all connected so idk

I'm pretty sure that I will be the only one to think that Dany represents the female aspect of the AA story - the PWIP/dragon who was promised and that the male aspect - the Warrior of Light/AA will be someone else,  While the PWIP is foretold to come from the line of Aerys and his wife; that might not apply to the Warrior of Light.  R'hllor chooses his instruments as he wills.  Chances are that Jaime has a fiery bloodline as a Targaryen bastard, if that's a requirement.

Does Jaime have a 'bright' future?  I wouldn't have thought so until I remembered how Bran sees him in his coma dream  If this is what Martin has in mind for Jaime and the end game, the Battle for the Dawn; it's so audacious, it makes me laugh and clap my hands. 

It also makes me think that the business about smoke and salt is a red herring. 

Edited by LynnS

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On 5/8/2021 at 7:01 PM, Nathan Stark said:

I do think the birth of the dragons re-ignited fire magic. Other branches of magic seem to have been at least somewhat active, but it seems fire magic was exeedingly weak until Dany's dragons were born.

Or the rising tide of magic returning allowed Dany to stumble into hatching dragon eggs and survive a funeral pyre without really having a clue what she was doing.  Before she hatched the eggs she was having dragon dreams and imagining (or actually) feeling warmth from the long dormant eggs.  It's as if they are calling to her now that the conditions for their hatching are favourable and she is an agent for releasing them.

In other words it's all part of a trend and whether or not Dany hatched the eggs Thoros would be resurrecting people, Mel seeing visions in the flames and birthing shadow babies and pyromancers enthusing over wildfire becoming more potent.  The increasing potency of both ice and fire magic seem two sides of the same coin though the cause is a mystery.

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3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Mel seeing visions in the flames and birthing shadow babies

Well I agree with everything except perhaps for this.  Thoros, the pyromancers, the alchemists, dragon egg hatching, and the glass candles burning, may all have been signs of an increase in magic.  

But as far as I can tell, Melisandre's visions had predated these events, didn't they?  And I could be wrong, but my take away was that Melisandre's creation of the shadow assassins wasn't her first go at this.

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