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Israel: When the Drums of War Have Reached a Fever Pitch


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2 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

I could be dense right now [puppy raising, interrupted sleep, etc] but can you point me to the particular passage that indicates where the thread author stated that? 

You need to include the 6th tweet:

Just read how messed up that line of thinking is. The entire thread was one sided and rather hostile. But those “Revisionist” Jews had it coming because they cared about their holy sites too.

7 minutes ago, Fez said:

All they tell is that Israel is more effective at killing. It tells you nothing about intentions or motivations. If Hamas could flip numbers they absolutely would, and that's bad. And the fact that Israel has killed that many is also bad.

Yep, and it’s also unfair to pick such a narrow timeline. This isn’t like the long running U.S-Iranian conflict, which objectively has a real starting point. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a Rorschach test that allows people to see what they want, and frankly, I think too many people have drawn a conclusion and then just highlight the examples that justify their beliefs.

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What it boils down to is what I think was concluded several pages back: Israel and the Palestinians have locked themselves into an impasse.

Israel has put itself into a position where it has to either abandon the West Bank, which it cannot do without bloodshed because of the 400,000 Israelis living there; formally annex the West Bank, which it cannot do without bloodshed because of the 2,700,000 Palestinians living there; integrate the Palestinians into the Israeli population, which it cannot do because they don't want to, and it would massively swing the demography of Israel in a direction they don't want it to go; expel the Palestinians, which they cannot do without bloodshed because of the aforementioned 2.7 million Palestinians going understandably berserk; or just say fuck it and leave the Israeli settlers to their own devices, which will never happen because they represent a significant voting bloc of the Israeli population. The Israeli population has also voted in (if only just) successive hardline or hardline-appeasing governments for more than twenty years who don't seem particularly motivated to come up with a viable peace plan. Israel has probably now lost the much of the popular support and sympathy they enjoyed in the world, but they don't give a shit about that as long as they retain the political allegiance of the United States and most Western powers, the neutrality of powers like China and Russia and the continued refusal of Turkey to get involved (though Israeli-Turkish relations have deteriorated recently, the chances of a Turkey-Israeli conflict seem very remote).

The Palestinians have also snookered themselves because they repeatedly turned down peace deals in the 1990s which would have given them most of what they wanted and it's highly improbable that any Israeli government in the short term will grant them such terms again (and in the medium to long term it's doubtful because of all the reasons outlined above); and because a significant chunk of the Palestinian population have successively voted for hardline groups (if not outright terrorists) who believe in the outright destruction of Israel, which is not really a viable way forwards. However, the Palestinians have also been screwed over their Arab allies who have gradually softened their stance towards Israel because of their greater fear of Iran, so the sympathy and support the Palestinians enjoyed from their traditional allies has been evaporating in recent years; Saudi Arabia confirming they will not recognise Israel until there is a peace deal is very thin gruel when Saudi Arabia and Israel have effectively thawed relations and started working together to contain Iran and allow flights through one another's airspace etc (i.e. recognising one another without having to formally say that's what they're doing).

There are possible ways forward: Israel could elect a much more moderate government willing to sit down with the Palestinian Authority and start fresh negotiations with both sides acknowledging actual realities. Hamas could, as some members have very occasionally hinted at is possible over the years, declare a ceasefire and offer to recognise Israel within its 1967 borders (1948 would be a start, though obviously a non-starter for any long-term negotiation) in return for concessions. The PA could accept the hard reality that right of return into Israel proper is not realistic, but right of return into Palestine proper is something they can sort out themselves. An honest outside broker could agree to mediate discussions (maybe the current US government could be trusted to do that, if not maybe the EU).

Realistically I think the cycle of violence will continue, and hopefully the current situation will die down and not mark the beginning of a third intifada.

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12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

or just say fuck it and leave the Israeli settlers to their own devices, which will never happen because they represent a significant voting bloc of the Israeli population. 

Also, even if a moderate Israeli government came into power, that was willing to tell the settlers that if they stay they are going to become citizens of a Palestinian state, those settlers would probably start a civil war with the Palestinians to create a breakaway autonomous region.

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36 minutes ago, Fez said:

Problem there (among others) is the city of Eilat, down on the Gulf of Aqaba. It's not that important a city, but I doubt Israel would ever consent to give it up or have it cut off from the rest of the country.

About fifty thousand people? That's a pretty small number compared to other populations whose relocation has been suggested. Israel being unwilling to give it up goes without saying, but is it unreasonable to say they should give it up?

36 minutes ago, Fez said:

There's also the security risk. Israel doesn't trust Egypt to properly protect a 7 mile border with Gaza, no way would they trust them with a 170 mile border. An independent state does mean sovereignty, and Israel would have to respect that. But they'd also want to ensure that independent factions, not part of the Palestinian government, aren't getting arms to continue the fight.

Frankly, the border between Palestine and Egypt is none of Israel's business.Terrorists operating against Israel from within Palestinian territory would be a legitimate concern, and the Palestinian government would have to be genuinely committed to stopping them for there to be any chance of long term peace.

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1 minute ago, felice said:

About fifty thousand people? That's a pretty small number compared to other populations whose relocation has been suggested. Israel being unwilling to give it up goes without saying, but is it unreasonable to say they should give it up?

Frankly, the border between Palestine and Egypt is none of Israel's business.Terrorists operating against Israel from within Palestinian territory would be a legitimate concern, and the Palestinian government would have to be genuinely committed to stopping them for there to be any chance of long term peace.

I think relocating the people of Eilat is unreasonable. I'm totally onboard with relocating all the settlers, they illegally went into land that they had no right to have. Fuck 'em, no matter how numerous they are. But the people in Eilat moved to land that has been part of Israel since 1948, they didn't break any agreements, laws, or treaties. They shouldn't be relocated just like Palestinians shouldn't be relocated.

As for the Palestinian/Egypt border, it potentially is Israel's business. If the peace deal calls for Palestine to actively stop terrorism from occurring against Israel, there are limits to how much they can actually accomplish. They could probably secure a 7 mile border, especially working with Egypt; I don't think they can secure a 170 mile border. And if they can't, and it leads to attacks on Israel, it would probably lead to the whole deal falling apart.

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18 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also, even if a moderate Israeli government came into power, that was willing to tell the settlers that if they stay they are going to become citizens of a Palestinian state, those settlers would probably start a civil war with the Palestinians to create a breakaway autonomous region.

That was well said Wert, but this represents a real problem and Israel would back the Israelis in the WB, so it just creates a whole new set of problems. Ultimately right now I don't think either side can coexist. The settlers would have to be forced to return rather than become Palestinian citizens. 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

You need to include the 6th tweet:

Just read how messed up that line of thinking is. The entire thread was one sided and rather hostile. But those “Revisionist” Jews had it coming because they cared about their holy sites too.

I posted those already having reread it, and yeah, I can see what you mean.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just read how messed up that line of thinking is. The entire thread was one sided and rather hostile. But those “Revisionist” Jews had it coming because they cared about their holy sites too.

I think its clear she is biased.  I think the point of her thread was that this conflict pre-dated WW2 though.  I do believe most people outside its immediate sphere believe that Israel was created as the West's response to the Holocaust.  She is right that it is a lot more complicated than that.  I would instead say, read what she says but know that she is interpreting things based on one particular viewpoint.

2 hours ago, Arakan said:

Now I don’t give a shit how many PR agencies you deploy or how many Lobby groups you weaponize, how good and sophisticated your Marketing Spin is, those two figures cannot be denied and they tell you everything one has to know. 

I'm not sure what you think can be achieved by comparing atrocities.  That has never gone anywhere.

One other thing struck me.  About a "moderate Israeli government".  I was just reading that up to 1977, all Israeli Prime Ministers were affiliated with the Labor movement.  Right now, that party has 7 out of 120 seats.  I suppose there are a few more left-wing parties in there but thing have really changed.  One of those ironic things that the left was hurt far more than the rest by the failed peace initiatives.

Werthead's posts are very informative.  But as people have said, hard to imagine anything positive emerging anytime soon.  Elections in the West Bank would have been interesting.  Just to get a sense of where things lie there.  The old guard is really old.   Somebody who knows more about this may have an idea what the next generation would bring.  But only proper elections would really tell.

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7 minutes ago, Padraig said:

One other thing struck me.  About a "moderate Israeli government".  I was just reading that up to 1977, all Israeli Prime Ministers were affiliated with the Labor movement.  Right now, that party has 7 out of 120 seats.  I suppose there are a few more left-wing parties in there but thing have really changed.  One of those ironic things that the left was hurt far more than the rest by the failed peace initiatives.

It's not just the fallout from the lack of peace process. My (limited) understanding is that the end of the USSR dramatically changed things as well. Starting in 1989, over the next decade or so, about a million former Soviet Jews emigrated to Israel. And they ended up being extremely conservative. They don't usually vote for Likud directly, but vote instead for various other right- and far-right- parties that support Likud governments. The largest such party, Yisrael Beiteniu, has turned against Netanyahu and is part of the attempt to make a coalition government. But they remain very conservative on most issues and would not support their partners in any big swings at a peace deal.

And they aren't even the only right-wing party necessary to get a non-Netanyahu government going. There's also Yamina, which is even further right-wing and only willing to talk about a coalition because they don't want a 5th election in 2 years, and New Hope, who are break-away Likud voters sick of Netanyahu dominating the party. The left wing has been decimated in Israel. There is Meretz (basically the Greens), but they only have 6 seats. And they and Labor are the only truly leftist parties. Yesh Atid is center, maybe center-left, and Blue and White is basically pure center now (I'm not sure they have any political position besides get rid of Netanyahu). But those are the only non-right wing, non-Arab Israeli parties, and they only add up 38 seats out of 120 in the Knesset.

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44 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

I posted those already having reread it, and yeah, I can see what you mean.

I saw, but you had the 4th and 5th tweet when the 6th one is what drives it home. If you're unaware, quote the second tweet next time to get the previous one to also appear above it.

37 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I think its clear she is biased.  I think the point of her thread was that this conflict pre-dated WW2 though.  I do believe most people outside its immediate sphere believe that Israel was created as the West's response to the Holocaust.  She is right that it is a lot more complicated than that.  I would instead say, read what she says but know that she is interpreting things based on one particular viewpoint.

Well that just is another wrinkle in where one wants to start analyzing the issue. You can go back hundreds of years if you want to. Even thousands. 

Point is, like in the tweet thread in question, many will say they think Jews should have their own country, but that statement is always followed by a giant NIMBY. Hard to find a place more appropriate than their ancestral homeland.

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Not to undercut the tragedy of the situation, or the discussion going on, but this photo literally looks like its from an anime...

That's Hamas-launched rockets from Gaza on the right and Israel's Iron Dome air defense interceptors on the left.

ETA: To tie things back to the seriousness of the situation, this is one of the reasons Israel is not incentivized to negotiate in good faith anymore. Between Iron Dome and the hard land barriers, Israeli civilians do have a high degree safety and simply do not feel pressure to find a peace solution anymore

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18 minutes ago, Fez said:

Not to undercut the tragedy of the situation, or the discussion going on, but this photo literally looks like its from an anime...

Damn.  Like that one commenter said, photo of the year.

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Consider who is attacking who, and imagine what the death toll would be without the superior defense. That's why Israel has needed to build up disproportionately. A fact that is easily ignored by those who just want to shit on Israel. 

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Consider who is attacking who, and imagine what the death toll would be without the superior defense. That's why Israel has needed to build up disproportionately. A fact that is easily ignored by those who just want to shit on Israel. 

Anyone that has a completely one-sided view of the conflict is simply not interested in peace between Arabs and Jews. I have my opinions about who is "more right," and others can have theirs, but neither side is going to "vanquish" the other, and we're both here to stay. Arabs and Jews that love the land and understand how hard it is to trust the other with our lives and the lands we love, but know it must be done, will be the ones to make peace between us. Not a bunch of inciters that demonize and deny the history and rights of one side or the other, and want to see one side destroy the other. Only extremists like Hamas, Lehava, and Kahanists win from gas being poured on the situation, and when they go around killing and attacking people it only pushes the rest of us further away from one another, which most of us do not want.

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3 hours ago, Padraig said:

I'm not sure what you think can be achieved by comparing atrocities.  That has never gone anywhere.

The marketing facade is crumbling. 
Let’s cut through all the PR BS. Why can Israel do what it does? Because they have the full backing of the US. That’s it. The EU is divided on the issue, formally they will always declare support for Israel and the „peace process“, informally they know what they are dealing with in Netanyahu. Especially since he became best anti-Muslim buddy with rightwingers/protofascists in Poland and Hungary. 

Again, let’s cut the BS. There are enough official reports of EU missions or AI or HRW out there. Israel successfully established an Apartheid regime, and the Westbank and Gaza became their Bantustans. Funnily enough Israel was a former informal ally of Apartheid South Africa and are basically at the same point South Africa was at the end of the 70s. 

You know when that regime was doomed to fail? As soon as they lost US (and UK) backing. 

For the last 20 years, since 911, Israel has had „carte blanche“ from the US in their dealings with the Palestinians. But the international mood is shifting, even in a country like Germany. Of course Israel has a right to exist but we left that stage at least three decades ago and users who insinuate something else are Trump level. This is not about Israel fighting for survival, this is about Israel going full-blown mini-British Empire. 

Can things get better? Yes. As soon as Israel is forced back to the negotiation table again. Israel has become what its founders never wanted it to become, a militaristic conquering colonial power. Again, this is not the 60s or 70s anymore where Israel was driven by self-preservation and very rightly so. 

At last, when your biggest fans are American alt-rights, crazy Evangelicals, Polish/Romanian/Bulgarian/Hungarian proto-fascists then you should start to realize that something went terribly wrong along the way. 
 

 

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Hi all,

I just came here to say that I'm more of a low-key ASOIAF fan here and on twitter and I am also from Israel. Let me just say that this was probably one of the more depressing weeks being on twitter, seeing a lot of misinformation thrown around, seeing Israeli people being regarded as a monolith in ways Chinese or the US won't because of their government and their government's policy.  I guess the most disheartening things were seeing the way the word  "Zionism" has lost its original meaning, and the way people attack the IDF, in ways they never do something like the US army (which people join voluntarily). This was coming from people I had a lot of respect for bit I jad to unfollow many of them because they just spread misinformation (even if it's only by retweeting or liking other tweets). Despite not really being a prominent member or in the "in-crowd" it still felt very alienating, like I can't voice how complicated this whole thing is because the slight support of Israel will turn people against you (look at what happened to Gal Gadot). I'm glad to see a more level headed and informed discussion here.

I do want to clarify that most Israeli do not support Netanyahu or his policy, most people do want to get along with the Arabic population (both Israeli and Palestinian). Israelis' issue is not with Palestinian, but with Hamas. Do people actually think we rejoice at the idea that innocent people die? On both sides (yes seven Israeli people died this week, including a five year old boy and an immigrant Indian woman, but somehow their lives don't matter in twitterland)? 

it’s kind of bewildering to me how some people scream and cry about oppression and colonialism while shamelessly expressing support for a fundamentalist, right wing military organization, who doesn't care for its people and whose goal is to destroy Israel. The irony is not lost on me.

I think Israel really wanted a solution in good faith back in the 90's, mainly after seeing how the peace efforts with Egypt and Jordan had good results, but then the Intifada happened. Israel withdrew from Gaza in hopes that that would lead them to build themselves up, instead Hamas took over and use their resources, their money (which is given to them by Israel) to further develop their terror infrastructure, whether it's for more developed missiles or digging up more tunnels into Israel territory. Something that Israel don't want to repeat itself in the West Bank.

I also think it's disingenuous to blame the failure of peace agreements solely on Israel, I think the two states solution was really popular in Israel back in 2013-2014 (back when Tziporah Livni was a member of the Israeli government and pushed for this to happen), but the Gaza War pretty much nullified it and Abbas was unwilling to accept any offer presented to him. To me it seems that this whole conflict is perpetuated by Netanyahu, Abbas and Hamas in order to have much stronger grasp at power.

And I do feel sorry for Palestinians because overtime it does seem like there's indifference to their plea, either from Israel, or neighboring countries, or the international community, but most importantly, their own government.

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9 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If you find this informative, you'd probably be interested in Uncle Ruckus' take on Black people, because that is what this fucker's use and abuse of his parents being Holocaust survivors to demonize the descendents of the survivors of the Nazis and Arab states that make up Israel's Jewish population.

hahaa.Really? character assassination and slander? That's the classic Israeli playbook.If non-Jewish call critic anti-semite and and holocaust denier.If critic is Jewish, also add 'self-hating Jew'. :rolleyes:

Professor Finkelstein's scholarly work on the Israel-Palestine conflict is well researched and thorough.His work has been praised both by non-Jewish and Jewish scholars as well.

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

That's why Israel has needed to build up disproportionately.

 

I don't think anyone (here) disagrees that disproportionate buildup for purposes of defence is bad (well, maybe one person). It's using that disproportion to exact disproportionate retribution that everyone is currently having a problem with.

I mean, I know you know this and have voiced your criticism of Netenyahu multiple times here and elsewhere, I just feel the need to throw that clarification of where (I think) we all stand out there before someone slides in with 'see! Tywin supports apartheid and genocide!!!' again on the back of that line.

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5 hours ago, farerb said:

Let me just say that this was probably one of the more depressing weeks being on twitter, seeing a lot of misinformation thrown around, seeing Israeli people being regarded as a monolith in ways Chinese or the US won't because of their government and their government's policy.

Well, first of all: Get off Twitter! What were you expecting? It's fucking Twitter for crying out loud! :wacko: Of course people won't be having a differentiated discussion there.

6 hours ago, farerb said:

To me it seems that this whole conflict is perpetuated by Netanyahu, Abbas and Hamas in order to have much stronger grasp at power.

That seems to nail it down exactly. What with the 300th failure to form a government in Israel, the postponement of Palestinian elections and Arabic states starting to normalize relations to Israel because they think Iran is the bigger issue at hand, it seems not very surprising that the Hamas is using this time for such a murderous cynical publicity stunt and how eager Nethanyahu is to respond with nothing but further escalation to posture as a strongman who goes eye for an eye. We... truly live in the dumbest timeline...

6 hours ago, farerb said:

it’s kind of bewildering to me how some people scream and cry about oppression and colonialism while shamelessly expressing support for a fundamentalist, right wing military organization, who doesn't care for its people and whose goal is to destroy Israel. The irony is not lost on me.

It should be clear that for peace the Hamas need to loose their support, but I dare to say that Nethanyahu has done a terrific job keeping them relevant among the Palestinian civilians. And I pray that the Israeli electorate will wake up and vote the hardliners out somewhere down the line. Despite all the bluster right now, generally Israel is in a position of power and its neighbors have never been less inclined to attack it. If there was political will to get back to the table, things could rapidly look more hopeful.

In any case: Stay safe!

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