What if Tywin ignored the Rebellion?

[The Jingo]

Exactly what it says on the tin.

Canonically Tyein sat the war out and waited for a winner before cementing himself firmly on the side of the rebels in  the final hour to make sure Cersei would be crowned as Queen.

But how would things have gone after the Trident if Tywin had simply gone "lol not my business"? 

Aerys is obviously too mad to make it over the finish line but that doesn't mean the Targaryen effort was hopeless.

[James Steller]

33 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

Exactly what it says on the tin.

Canonically Tyein sat the war out and waited for a winner before cementing himself firmly on the side of the rebels in  the final hour to make sure Cersei would be crowned as Queen.

But how would things have gone after the Trident if Tywin had simply gone "lol not my business"? 

Aerys is obviously too mad to make it over the finish line but that doesn't mean the Targaryen effort was hopeless.

This was already covered recently. TLDR: The worst thing Tywin could have done was nothing, because no matter who wins, he loses his son Jaime at King's Landing and then he's dealing with a bunch of people who are angry that he didn't pick a side.

[The Jingo]

23 hours ago, James Steller said:

This was already covered recently. TLDR: The worst thing Tywin could have done was nothing, because no matter who wins, he loses his son Jaime at King's Landing and then he's dealing with a bunch of people who are angry that he didn't pick a side.

But what can they realistically do?

The royalists and the rebels can smash each other to pieces. At the end of it all their armies will be bloodied and exhausted beyond all hope. If Tywin didn't sneak his way into King's Landing via the Sack then by the time the rebels make to to King's Landing and scale the walls (if they manage it at all) they'll have to contend with the barely touched armies of the Reach. 

Now the final victor is a coin toss. Either the rebels pull a victory over the Tyrells or the Tyrells finally succeed in crushing the Rebellion with their numbers.

There's the risk that Jaime will be killed for some reason or another of course, but that's just part of the gamble. The war will eventually end in some fashion or another, and what's left? The realm has bled itself all over the Riverlands and Crownlands and Stormlands over the question of the crown, and here is Tywin Lannister with oodles and oodles of fresh troops and oodles and oodles of gold to hire as many tens of thousands of sellswords as he likes.

Nobody can afford to punish him via war. Not when he has tens of thousands of fresh men and tens of thousands of sellswords if he needs them. At best they can try to exclude him from the post war government. but gold speaks there as well.

[Loose Bolt]

11 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

Nobody can afford to punish him via war. Not when he has tens of thousands of fresh men and tens of thousands of sellswords if he needs them. At best they can try to exclude him from the post war government. but gold speaks there as well.

There is a chance that Ironborn would start to raid Westerlands if they get some kind "green light" from other kingdoms. Or if it seems either that Lannisters do not anymore have support of other kingdoms or they are too weak to anything IB might decide to invade WL and if they would be able to destroy Tywin's fleet he would have massive problem.

[James Steller]

11 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

But what can they realistically do?

The royalists and the rebels can smash each other to pieces. At the end of it all their armies will be bloodied and exhausted beyond all hope. If Tywin didn't sneak his way into King's Landing via the Sack then by the time the rebels make to to King's Landing and scale the walls (if they manage it at all) they'll have to contend with the barely touched armies of the Reach. 

Now the final victor is a coin toss. Either the rebels pull a victory over the Tyrells or the Tyrells finally succeed in crushing the Rebellion with their numbers.

There's the risk that Jaime will be killed for some reason or another of course, but that's just part of the gamble. The war will eventually end in some fashion or another, and what's left? The realm has bled itself all over the Riverlands and Crownlands and Stormlands over the question of the crown, and here is Tywin Lannister with oodles and oodles of fresh troops and oodles and oodles of gold to hire as many tens of thousands of sellswords as he likes.

Nobody can afford to punish him via war. Not when he has tens of thousands of fresh men and tens of thousands of sellswords if he needs them. At best they can try to exclude him from the post war government. but gold speaks there as well.

There are way too many variables that could go wrong with that gamble. And anyway, Tywin never relied on gambles, he went for certainties. The whole reason he approved the Red Wedding was because he didn't want to prolong the war. It was more advantageous to do something treacherous which ended the war in his favour, even though he was bound to win against Robb eventually with the Reach and the Westerlands behind him. 

And speaking of the Reach, there's also this to consider. It would be extremely unlikely that the rebels could have overcome the Reach, especially not after a year of warfare and bloodletting. Mace Tyrell always outnumbered them, unless they managed to assemble all their combined strength, which would have been unwieldy, costly, and time-consuming. 

If you look at the events of Robert's Rebellion, the rebels headed south from the Trident to the capital, but they had left a lot of their force behind, including Robert, because of injuries. They wouldn't have been able to just ride into King's Landing, so they'd have to build up a seige. Mace Tyrell would be able to turn around, leave a token force at Storm's End, and hit the rebels hard with his fresh troops that also outnumber them. And that means Mace Tyrell is the hero. He's already got more men than Tywin, more food and resources, probably more money too when you add up all the income of the Hightowers and Redwynes and other houses. Now he'd also be the king's new favourite, and that king would not only be linking his family with the Tyrells, but he'd also be harbouring a serious grudge against Tywin. Remember, it isn't Rhaegar who would be dealing with the aftermath of Robert's Rebellion, because Rhaegar's lying dead by the Trident. It's Aerys who's still alive in that scenario, utterly mad, with a mad heir in Viserys, and he's also feeling pretty vindicated by his victory in that scenario. Four great houses are going to be expunged for their treason, and probably a fifth once he can send the royalist forces against House Lannister for abandoning the Iron Throne in a time of war. 

Tywin could have helped win the war by showing up to the Trident after the battle and slaughter the rebels, or he could do as he did in the story, taking the capital for the rebels and doing dirty deeds in order for Robert to avoid getting blood on his hands, which also means they can demand favours from him in the form of a new queen to replace Lyanna Stark.

 

[frenin]

On 5/15/2021 at 7:47 AM, The Jingo said:

Exactly what it says on the tin.

Canonically Tyein sat the war out and waited for a winner before cementing himself firmly on the side of the rebels in  the final hour to make sure Cersei would be crowned as Queen.

But how would things have gone after the Trident if Tywin had simply gone "lol not my business"? 

Aerys is obviously too mad to make it over the finish line but that doesn't mean the Targaryen effort was hopeless.

Nothing would have happened. After the Trident there was a new King in town, no matter what Aerys or the remaining Targs felt about it.

It wasn't about numbers anyway,  the Reach had done almost nothing and Dorne had lost "only" 10k soldiers. If they really wanted to put up a fight they could have given the rebels a run for their money, with or without Tywin, they clearly didn't want to.

[Hug-hammer]

Miss 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

23 minutes ago, frenin said:

Nothing would have happened. After the Trident there was a new King in town, no matter what Aerys or the remaining Targs felt about it.

It wasn't about numbers anyway,  the Reach had done almost nothing and Dorne had lost "only" 10k soldiers. If they really wanted to put up a fight they could have given the rebels a round for their money, with or without Tywin, they clearly didn't want to.

This is why Mace Tyrell is a mystery to me. He's either a true buffoon, or he's playing Wyman Manderly's game. I could genuinely believe either one of those scenarios, though I think it's too much of a retread of Manderly if it's the latter. 

[frenin]

30 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

This is why Mace Tyrell is a mystery to me. He's either a true buffoon, or he's playing Wyman Manderly's game. I could genuinely believe either one of those scenarios, though I think it's too much of a retread of Manderly if it's the latter. 

Nah, his actions made perfect sense and Martin has gone on record saying that even if Mace had attempted to put a fight, he would have found himself with most of his bannermen deserting him. So he had no other choice but to surrender to the rebels.

[Trigger Warning]

Aerys probably manages to immolate King's Landing at some point just because the circumstances of his death changed. 

[Trigger Warning]

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

This is why Mace Tyrell is a mystery to me. He's either a true buffoon, or he's playing Wyman Manderly's game. I could genuinely believe either one of those scenarios, though I think it's too much of a retread of Manderly if it's the latter. 

Why bother risking it when he can just not do anything and maintain his position as one of the most powerful people on the continent, don't see how that makes him a buffoon either. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 5/15/2021 at 2:22 AM, James Steller said:

This was already covered recently. TLDR: The worst thing Tywin could have done was nothing, because no matter who wins, he loses his son Jaime at King's Landing and then he's dealing with a bunch of people who are angry that he didn't pick a side.

Nah the only way Jaime dies is if Rhaegar dies too, and even then Aerys isn't likely to fry a member of his KG. I doubt even the White Bull would have stood for that

[Canon Claude]

31 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Nah the only way Jaime dies is if Rhaegar dies too, and even then Aerys isn't likely to fry a member of his KG. I doubt even the White Bull would have stood for that

Rhaegar DID die. And the White Bull was MIA, and he would certainly have stood for that. He stood by when the queen was being abused sexually and physically. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 minute ago, Canon Claude said:

Rhaegar DID die. And the White Bull was MIA, and he would certainly have stood for that. He stood by when the queen was being abused sexually and physically. 

Then I imagine Jaime would have just killed Aerys if it came to that. Can't imagine him not

[Canon Claude]

15 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Then I imagine Jaime would have just killed Aerys if it came to that. Can't imagine him not

That raises a good question; would Jaime have broken his oath to save his own skin? He’s all about following the example of duty and knightly orders, but he’s also got enough common sense to kill a madman who was going to massacre hundreds of thousands with wildfire. But if it was just his own life being taken? That’s a pretty selfish reason to stab your own king in the back, and it looks even worse than if he had a utilitarian reason.

[Trigger Warning]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

That raises a good question; would Jaime have broken his oath to save his own skin? He’s all about following the example of duty and knightly orders, but he’s also got enough common sense to kill a madman who was going to massacre hundreds of thousands with wildfire. But if it was just his own life being taken? That’s a pretty selfish reason to stab your own king in the back, and it looks even worse than if he had a utilitarian reason.

I think Jaime would go down fighting, I can't see him breaking his oath for the sole purpose of saving his own life. The guy charged Robb's bodyguard in the Whispering Wood just for a shot at killing him and jumped into a bear pit with one hand to save Brienne, self preservation especially in battle just isn't one of his priorities. 

EDIT: I think I replied to this post out of the context of the discussion, I don't think he'd just let himself get fried for no reason but I think he'd die defending Aerys from attackers  

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Canon Claude said:

That raises a good question; would Jaime have broken his oath to save his own skin? He’s all about following the example of duty and knightly orders, but he’s also got enough common sense to kill a madman who was going to massacre hundreds of thousands with wildfire. But if it was just his own life being taken? That’s a pretty selfish reason to stab your own king in the back, and it looks even worse than if he had a utilitarian reason.

Is that a serious question? Of course he would. We know because he did

[Floki of the Ironborn]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Is that a serious question? Of course he would. We know because he did

Well, Claude did emphasise that Jaime killed the Mad King primarily to save the people of King's Landing and his father. In his big confession scene, far as I can remember, he never talks about fearing for his own safety. That doesn't mean much, of course, but it's still worth pointing out. Therefore, the question becomes whether we believe he'd have done the same thing if it was just his own life being threatened rather than so many others. It's not difficult to see the good in what Jaime did by stabbing Aerys in the story, but that goodwill is gone when you learn he was only trying to save his own life.

[The Jingo]

On 5/16/2021 at 3:27 AM, James Steller said:

There are way too many variables that could go wrong with that gamble. And anyway, Tywin never relied on gambles, he went for certainties. The whole reason he approved the Red Wedding was because he didn't want to prolong the war. It was more advantageous to do something treacherous which ended the war in his favour, even though he was bound to win against Robb eventually with the Reach and the Westerlands behind him.

I actually think it was probably more to prevent Robb from escaping to the North, where he could feasibly actually still win a rebellion. Robb had to be defeated before he escaped behind Moat Cailin because once that happened it would be a long and difficult campaign to subdue the North.

Quote

If you look at the events of Robert's Rebellion, the rebels headed south from the Trident to the capital, but they had left a lot of their force behind, including Robert, because of injuries. They wouldn't have been able to just ride into King's Landing, so they'd have to build up a seige. Mace Tyrell would be able to turn around, leave a token force at Storm's End, and hit the rebels hard with his fresh troops that also outnumber them. And that means Mace Tyrell is the hero. He's already got more men than Tywin, more food and resources, probably more money too when you add up all the income of the Hightowers and Redwynes and other houses. Now he'd also be the king's new favourite, and that king would not only be linking his family with the Tyrells, but he'd also be harbouring a serious grudge against Tywin. Remember, it isn't Rhaegar who would be dealing with the aftermath of Robert's Rebellion, because Rhaegar's lying dead by the Trident. It's Aerys who's still alive in that scenario, utterly mad, with a mad heir in Viserys, and he's also feeling pretty vindicated by his victory in that scenario. Four great houses are going to be expunged for their treason, and probably a fifth once he can send the royalist forces against House Lannister for abandoning the Iron Throne in a time of war. 

If Aerys was crazed enough to declare war on Tywin the entire kingdom would fall to pieces. While the Westerlands is not as geographically isolated as Dorne or the North it's still a mountainous region almost like the Vale. Tywin would be able to fortify and hold out the region for years, and that's if he endured it alone.

If Aerys went off and disinherited Elia's children in favour of Viserys then he'd lose Dorne, either by killing those kids (and driving the Dornish to repudiate him) or by having the Dornish plot a war of succession.

He also has to deal with the North, where Benjen Stark remains alive to command a long running resistance even if Ned is slain in the South. On top of this, there is a nonzero possiblity of Balon just going "well it's my time" and declaring independence and going apewild on the Reach and Riverlands (strategically ignoring the North and Westerlands because he's not motivated by spite to go after them) after he gets rid of Quellon.

[Canon Claude]

24 minutes ago, The Jingo said:

On top of this, there is a nonzero possiblity of Balon just going "well it's my time" and declaring independence and going apewild on the Reach and Riverlands (strategically ignoring the North and Westerlands because he's not motivated by spite to go after them) after he gets rid of Quellon.

Well, that’s easy enough since Quellon died in a pretty embarrassing and half-arsed raid against the Reach. But I don’t see why Balon would refrain from attacking anyone in that scenario. He’d probably take full advantage of the rebellion and attack all the different regions that were weakened. That means the Riverlands and North get invaded, and if Aerys does take revenge on Tywin (as any royalist would imagine was fair game considering he refused to aid his king), then the Westerlands become an appealing target. Euron would be there to help his brother destroy the Lannisport fleet, as he did during the Greyjoy rebellion, and Victarion wouldn’t need a second’s thought to join in and wreak havoc.