What if Tywin ignored the Rebellion?

[The Jingo]

11 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Well, that’s easy enough since Quellon died in a pretty embarrassing and half-arsed raid against the Reach. But I don’t see why Balon would refrain from attacking anyone in that scenario. He’d probably take full advantage of the rebellion and attack all the different regions that were weakened. That means the Riverlands and North get invaded, and if Aerys does take revenge on Tywin (as any royalist would imagine was fair game considering he refused to aid his king), then the Westerlands become an appealing target. Euron would be there to help his brother destroy the Lannisport fleet, as he did during the Greyjoy rebellion, and Victarion wouldn’t need a second’s thought to join in and wreak havoc.

The Westerlands is actually the least tempting target if the objective is simply "attack a bunch of weaklings and steal everything that isn't nailed down". It would be fully garrisoned with some tens of thousands of men in expectation of royalist invasions.

The Reach, the Riverlands, and the North are all better choices if you simply want to raid some people that haven't been bloodied up.

But regardless I don't think he would start attacking people indiscriminately. During the War of Five Kings he attacks the North only. He doesn't even waste time in the Riverlands. His actual compaign of "take the North from the Starks for their insults" is decently planned out. He's feeling spite that Ned Stark took his last son and Robb Stark dared to offer to "give" him a crown, and that spite makes him ignore the long term strategic factor, but his tactics are decent.

So I think a Balon that is less motivated by spite and more by independence and plunder would - not be friends with the West and the North - but would mostly ignore them to focus on the Reach and the subdued Riverlands. Not because he respects them or wants to be long term allies but because he is at least smart enough to know that he has higher priority targets to fight.

[Universal Sword Donor]

17 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Well, Claude did emphasise that Jaime killed the Mad King primarily to save the people of King's Landing and his father. In his big confession scene, far as I can remember, he never talks about fearing for his own safety. That doesn't mean much, of course, but it's still worth pointing out. Therefore, the question becomes whether we believe he'd have done the same thing if it was just his own life being threatened rather than so many others. It's not difficult to see the good in what Jaime did by stabbing Aerys in the story, but that goodwill is gone when you learn he was only trying to save his own life.

Even if we accept that, how many other times has Jaime done something to safeguard his own life? Pushing Bran out of the tower, killing 3 men trying to break out of RR, dueling Brienne to escape...

He doesn't really change much until he loses his hand and loses the ability to fight his way out of situations.

[James Steller]

7 hours ago, The Jingo said:

If Aerys was crazed enough to declare war on Tywin the entire kingdom would fall to pieces. While the Westerlands is not as geographically isolated as Dorne or the North it's still a mountainous region almost like the Vale. Tywin would be able to fortify and hold out the region for years, and that's if he endured it alone.

I'm sure there are plenty of Westerland houses who would turn on Tywin if the king attainted him. Tywin isn't loved by his bannermen, he is feared. And even after a conflict as destructive as Robert's Rebellion (or the War of the Usurper, in the event of a royalist victory), Aerys would still command far more troops than Tywin could ever muster. And he also has the prestige of the Iron Throne. We saw how many Riverlords and Stormlords and Valemen stayed loyal to the Iron Throne, I imagine the same thing would have happened with the Westerlords if Tywin was openly declared an enemy of the crown.

7 hours ago, The Jingo said:

If Aerys went off and disinherited Elia's children in favour of Viserys then he'd lose Dorne, either by killing those kids (and driving the Dornish to repudiate him) or by having the Dornish plot a war of succession.

That's a good point, but I believe there's already a few precedents for going against primogeniture in naming an heir. It would certainly be a mess either way, though I doubt Aerys would care if he'd successfully put down Robert's Rebellion.

7 hours ago, The Jingo said:

He also has to deal with the North, where Benjen Stark remains alive to command a long running resistance even if Ned is slain in the South. On top of this, there is a nonzero possiblity of Balon just going "well it's my time" and declaring independence and going apewild on the Reach and Riverlands (strategically ignoring the North and Westerlands because he's not motivated by spite to go after them) after he gets rid of Quellon.

Assuming that my above scenario happens, and the Westerlands becomes divided, then Balon would absolutely attack them. They're the closest region to the Iron Islands, they're the wealthiest target, and they'd be too disorganized to mount a proper defence. The same thing happened during the Dance, and it wasn't until the Iron Throne turned on the Iron Islands that the issue was resolved.

[Corvus Black]

Aerys knew he had lost the war with Rhaegar's death. He also knew that Eddard Stark was leading Robert's army towards King's Landing. Realistically if Tywin and his men don't make it to the gates of King's Landing before Ned and his men do then Aerys still tries to enact his plan to burn King's Landing and Jaime still kills Aerys to prevent this.

This is where events diverge from canon. Jaime originally planned to vanish and let someone else take the fall for killing Aerys, but Lannister men arrived in the throne room in time to witness the murder. Here Jaime doesn't get caught and makes his escape. Where was he planning to go after though? To guard Elia and her children, and wait for Robert's army to arrive?

That is the biggest change to canon: Elia and her children survive. Dorne now has no grudge against Tywin or Robert. The question then is what Robert does with Elia and her children. He is king by right of conquest and his Targaryen blood so there is no dispute there. Robert won't kill them. He was happy they were dead in canon but I just can't see him killing them himself. I'm sure Jon Arryn will work out some kind of arrangement with Dorne. 

In this scenario though, with Jaime presumably still in the capital, Tywin has no choice but to bend the knee to Robert and declare his allegiance to the new king as Robert, like Aerys, has Jaime as a hostage. Robert probably still accepts Tywin and the Lannisters back into the fold but some kind of punishment will likely be levied against him. I certainly don't see Robert marrying Cersei in this timeline. Maybe that's the only punishment.   

In summary, Tywin waiting out the entire war works out better for him in some ways (Dorne does not bear a grudge against him) and worse in other ways (Robert doesn't marry Cersei). For Tywin however it would be a loss in his eyes. He's basically in the same situation he was with Aerys as the king is not happy with him and has his son as a hostage.

[The Jingo]

12 hours ago, Corvus Black said:

In this scenario though, with Jaime presumably still in the capital, Tywin has no choice but to bend the knee to Robert and declare his allegiance to the new king as Robert, like Aerys, has Jaime as a hostage. Robert probably still accepts Tywin and the Lannisters back into the fold but some kind of punishment will likely be levied against him. I certainly don't see Robert marrying Cersei in this timeline. Maybe that's the only punishment.   

In summary, Tywin waiting out the entire war works out better for him in some ways (Dorne does not bear a grudge against him) and worse in other ways (Robert doesn't marry Cersei). For Tywin however it would be a loss in his eyes. He's basically in the same situation he was with Aerys as the king is not happy with him and has his son as a hostage.

I wouldn't say Robert is mad in the least.

The Greyjoys sat the whole war out until the very end when they did like, one piddly raid on the Reach after Rhaegar had already been killed. Their involvement in the Rebellion was basically nothing. One could even argue that by doing nothing Tywin was supporting the rebellion by refusing to answer the call to arms by his liege lord.

Regardless, Robert has no ground to stand on in regards to being angry. He wasn't even angry with the Houses that actually bore arms against him. If the Tyrells can starve his brothers for an entire year and get zero punishment of any kind then I can't see Tywin being punished.

Robert would also probably still marry Cersei. If anything, it would be for better reasons. In canon the match makes no sense because Tywin has murdered the Targaryen children and so has to back Robert to the hilt for simple self-preservation. In the alternate universe Tywin can still feasibly support a Targaryen restoration so he is much more dangerous and it is actually important to get him onside with a marriage alliance.

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, The Jingo said:

 

Regardless, Robert has no ground to stand on in regards to being angry. He wasn't even angry with the Houses that actually bore arms against him. If the Tyrells can starve his brothers for an entire year and get zero punishment of any kind then I can't see Tywin being punished.

 

Well, Robert did marry Stannis off to the Tyrell's most hated vassal house, so that's a punishment of sorts. At the very least, it was a message that the crown wasn't in their corner (until Renly began his relationship with Loras, anyway).

[The Jingo]

49 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Well, Robert did marry Stannis off to the Tyrell's most hated vassal house, so that's a punishment of sorts. At the very least, it was a message that the crown wasn't in their corner (until Renly began his relationship with Loras, anyway).

Arguably that was more a reward for the Florents for taking Robert's side than a punishment for the Tyrells.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

2 hours ago, The Jingo said:

Arguably that was more a reward for the Florents for taking Robert's side than a punishment for the Tyrells.

The Florents never took Robert's side, though. The Florents were likely part of Mace Tyrell's army outside Storm's End, or even at the Trident. They didn't deserve a reward, it was meant to punish the Tyrells. 

[Corvus Black]

On 5/19/2021 at 5:04 AM, The Jingo said:

I wouldn't say Robert is mad in the least.

Not mad. Just not happy with Tywin like he was in canon for Jaime killing Aerys and Tywin having Elia and her children killed. Marrying Cersei was his reward to Tywin.

On 5/19/2021 at 5:04 AM, The Jingo said:

The Greyjoys sat the whole war out until the very end when they did like, one piddly raid on the Reach after Rhaegar had already been killed. Their involvement in the Rebellion was basically nothing. One could even argue that by doing nothing Tywin was supporting the rebellion by refusing to answer the call to arms by his liege lord.

But the Greyjoys did eventually fight for Robert in the war, and in canon so did the Lannisters by sacking King's Landing. Here Tywin doesn't do that.

On 5/19/2021 at 5:04 AM, The Jingo said:

Regardless, Robert has no ground to stand on in regards to being angry. He wasn't even angry with the Houses that actually bore arms against him. If the Tyrells can starve his brothers for an entire year and get zero punishment of any kind then I can't see Tywin being punished.

Again, not angry. As I said, the marriage was a reward so Robert not marrying Cersei is punishment enough.

On 5/19/2021 at 5:04 AM, The Jingo said:

Robert would also probably still marry Cersei. If anything, it would be for better reasons. In canon the match makes no sense because Tywin has murdered the Targaryen children and so has to back Robert to the hilt for simple self-preservation. In the alternate universe Tywin can still feasibly support a Targaryen restoration so he is much more dangerous and it is actually important to get him onside with a marriage alliance.

See my top comment.

[Hug-hammer]

I always thought it was jon arryn who asked tywin to kill the targaryen children, to secure the new baratheon- lannister dynasty.

Tywin had to kill the Targaryen children to prove by this act that the Lannisters were definitively abandoning the Targaryens, and thus be rewarded by Cersei marrying the new king.

If Tywin had not intervened during the war, he would not have betrayed anyone by remaining neutral, except perhaps his kings.
The martells, tyrells and then the greyjoys were never punished.
Tywin had nothing to fear by remaining neutral.

[Hug-hammer]

Jon arryn was a liar when he said that robert should marry cersei.
To keep tywin on their side if one day viserys iii decided to attack westeros.
I mean tywin by murdering the targaryen children becomes as much a traitor and enemy of the targaryens as robert baratheon who kills rhaegar is usurping the crown. 
If viserys iii were to take the iron throne one day, he would destroy house baratheon and lannister.
Besides, it was a Lannister who killed his father. 
So the Cersei-Robert marriage had no reason to take place, except perhaps to reward the Lannisters for killing the Targaryen children. 

At that time the real danger for the rebels was mostly Dorne, and Oberyn wanted to continue the war.
To make Robert marry Arianne would have allowed to calm down the Dornians. 
Doran would have accepted.

[Lady_Qohor]

48 minutes ago, Hug-hammer said:

Jon arryn was a liar when he said that robert should marry cersei.

I don't think that makes him a liar. There's no evidence Jon Arryn was trying to deceive Robert, whom he risked everything to protect. 

At the most it was poor judgement/strategy. 

[Hug-hammer]

2 hours ago, Lady_Qohor said:

I don't think that makes him a liar. There's no evidence Jon Arryn was trying to deceive Robert, whom he risked everything to protect. 

At the most it was poor judgement/strategy. 

He was trying to protect Robert's fat ass.
The death of the Targaryen children benefits Robert and his dynasty. That's why he didn't do anything against the Lannisters after that.

Jon arryn and the other rebel lords (ned stark, robert baratheon, hoster tully) hate and despise the lannisters, 
the cersei-robert marriage is really a huge gift they gave to tywin (making his grandsons kings).
Who didn't deserve it especially after brutally murdering the real royal children.
These greedy bastards did not even punish Jaime who committed the most despicable act that can exist in westeros murdered the king he swore to protect, they even reintroduced him among the royal guard as if nothing was wrong. 
  The punishment for the rebels is that they did not punish the Lannisters for their crimes.
Now they are paying for it, because the Lannisters always pay their debts.

[Kolx]

Why would Jon Arryn lie to Robert? He just was a strategic man, Tywin was the most powerful lord at the time, who’s going to stop him from looking East and trying to crown Viserys, a child can be easily manipulated, look at how Tywin lies to Tyrion and tells him that he never intended for it to happen.

Marrying Cersei to Robert wasn’t a gift for Tywin, the only gift Robert gave him was sparing Jaime from taking the black or cutting off his head.

[Trigger Warning]

Tywin's contribution to the rebellion is way too undervalued on this board. Just because the war was essentially won doesn't mean that securing the capital, storming the citadel, removing the royal family and offering up the throne to Robert on a platter in one day isn't a contribution that Robert would want to reward, the fanbase looks at besieging King's Landing with its massive walls and fuck off huge central citadel as no biggie constantly whenever attacking King's Landing comes up. 

[Hug-hammer]

Why is it hard to understand after Tywin murdered the Targaryen children and Jaime killed King Aerys.
There was no longer any possible alliance between the Lannisters and the Targaryens?
Tywin may be the most powerful lord in all of Westeros, but he is hated by the world outside of Westerland.
Even his vassals don't like him, he is only feared by them.
He has no allies.

The idea that he's going to support viserys, after he murdered his nephews and that jaime killed aerys is a lie out of jon arryn's ass.

The objective at the time was to calm the dornians after the murder of ellia is these children. Who would sooner or later plot against the Iron Throne for a Targaryen restoration. 
It was thus necessary to offer arianne to robert.

[Universal Sword Donor]

3 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

Tywin's contribution to the rebellion is way too undervalued on this board. Just because the war was essentially won doesn't mean that securing the capital, storming the citadel, removing the royal family and offering up the throne to Robert on a platter in one day isn't a contribution that Robert would want to reward, the fanbase looks at besieging King's Landing with its massive walls and fuck off huge central citadel as no biggie constantly whenever attacking King's Landing comes up. 

Stannis had KL begging for mercy inside of a day and was almost through the walls. Not to say that there weren't other factors like the royal fleet, scattered royal army, or the rebels marching south / southeast, but if Stannis could reasonably force access to the city in his timeline I don't doubt that Tywin could do something similar. Biggest problem would be the rebel army, but some envoys like say Kevan or Lord Crakehall to align the westermen and the rebels could alleviate that.

The Red Keep and Maegor's holdfast, sure that's a tough nut tho.

[Trigger Warning]

13 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Stannis had KL begging for mercy inside of a day and was almost through the walls. Not to say that there weren't other factors like the royal fleet, scattered royal army, or the rebels marching south / southeast, but if Stannis could reasonably force access to the city in his timeline I don't doubt that Tywin could do something similar. Biggest problem would be the rebel army, but some envoys like say Kevan or Lord Crakehall to align the westermen and the rebels could alleviate that.

The Red Keep and Maegor's holdfast, sure that's a tough nut tho.

I've brought up how dumb I think it is that the defence of King's Landing was collapsing before they captured a section of wall or breached a gate in the past but I have to accept that that's what GRRM wrote but that being said I'd rather assume that during the Blackwater the defence was falling apart because of the morale of the raw gold cloaks rather than some fundamental problem with King's Landing's defences. It's a huge city with big walls, if we assume that the walls of King's Landing don't mean shit then neither does any wall in the setting. 

Like I said I'd rather just assume that it's the specific circumstances that matter when GRRM writes about some castle falling even if I think it stretches suspension of disbelief rather than a fundamental problem with fortifications simply not working for some inexplicable reason across the entire setting. There's absolutely no reasonable reason to assume King's Landing should be easy to take, Tywin himself says 1 man on a wall is worth 10 below.  

You're right about the Red Keep, by all accounts it's an absolute monstrous fortress yet the fandom barely ever pays it any mind.