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Megorova

Swan Song part 1/16. The missing pieces & PTSD

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Posted (edited)

Hello Everyone!

I’ve been on this forum since 2017, but this is my first thread. Over these years I had a lot of ideas, and finally managed to compile into a single theory those of them that are connected to each other and form together The Bigger Picture - like pieces in a jigsaw puzzle. Though, as it was pointed out to me by other forum members, I tend to overcomplicate things and write too much of everything at once. So not to turn my Magnum Opus into a tangled web of gibberish, I divided it into 16 separate threads, which I will gradually post on this forum (yes, there are SIXTEEN!!! of them. I know :rolleyes: I went a bit overboard). This is an introduction thread into my grand theory. And why did I named it the “Swan Song”, you will find out in the next thread.

First of all I want to elaborate on how I got this or that idea and based on which principles I turned them into a theory/ hypothesis. While reading GRRM’s works, I noticed that in his writing he follows certain patterns. Though let’s not confuse plot patterns with literary patterns. Plot patterns present in ASOIAF could be parsed into general categories, such as: parallels, trinities, foreshadowings, tropes, reversed tropes, déjà vu/repeats, progression, regression, etc. Also in his works GRRM is using a lot of symbolism, and among all the patterns that are used by GRRM, trinities are the most cardinal. Though there are already several threads on this forum about importance and significance of number 3 in ASOIAF. And there are even more threads about all sorts of symbols used by GRRM. So I’m not going to write about that. Instead, let’s focus on the other patterns.

According to Fire & Blood, among deities of Essos, there’s a god named Pattern, and there’s a Patternmaker’s Maze in Braavos. The priests of the Pattern claim that “only those who learn to walk it properly will ever find their way to wisdom” - ADWD, Chapter 64, The Ugly Little Girl.

If my interpretation of GRRM’s writing is correct, then I noticed these specific patterns that he had used in his books:

-         nearly all Valyrian names have “ae” or “ey” in them, some even have both;

-         Targaryens mostly married with other dragonseeds - Targaryens, Velaryons, Baratheons, or with their descendants;

-         Starks mostly married with other Northerners, majority of which also were their relatives;

-         a lot of people from the same House have similar names;

-         those Targaryens that were “bad coins” had a tendency to play with fire and to kill horses;

-         mass gatherings, such as tournaments or weddings, are frequently used by conspirators as a cover for their activities;

-         those characters that try to make right choices, usually end up as martyrs;

-         nearly all love stories in GRRM’s books are tragedies, etc.

Thus, my theories are based on the interpretation of patterns, symbols, and trinities used by GRRM. And majority of my ideas are result of what I call a “missing suitcase” which I noticed in ASOIAF’s text. What suitcase? This (it’s a scene from Sherlock TV-series Season 1, Episode 1 - “A Study in Pink”):

As you can see from that scene, the absence of that woman’s suitcase is evidence that she didn’t committed suicide - she was murdered. Also, even though the suitcase itself was gone from the crime scene, there were remaining traces of the suitcase’s existence, such as splash marks on that woman’s leg. And we know, based on all that other information about that woman, that her suitcase was pink.

So what does all that have to do with GRRM’s books? And what’s the point of this thread?

That movie scene is a good example of the principle that even when certain elements are removed from the whole, nevertheless their traces remain behind as an evidence of their previous existence/presence. And thus, those traces could be used as a starting point to figure out what are those missing elements, and what could be their significance. Even the absence of certain elements could be used as a key that unlocks a secret, or a clue that helps to figure out a mystery.

It’s similar to the process of assembling a jigsaw puzzle - when you notice that there are missing pieces in the plot, you can interpret their meaning by using PTSD to fill in gaps. And by PTSD I don’t mean Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, I mean - Patterns, Trinities, Symbols, and Deduction.

What is deduction and how to use it?

Deduction is the process of reaching a decision or answer by thinking about the known facts - Cambridge Dictionary

The definition of a deduction is the act of understanding something based on evidence. An example of a deduction is what a detective makes after he compares and interprets the details of an investigation - yourdictionary.com

Agatha Christie “The Mysterious Affair at Styles”, Hercule Poirot -

Quote

“We will arrange the facts, neatly, each in his proper place. We will examine - and reject. Those of importance we will put on one side; those of no importance, pouf!’ - he screwed up his cherub-like face, and puffed comically enough - ‘blow them away!’”

“If the fact will not fit the theory - let the theory go.”

“One fact leads to another - so we continue. Does the next fit in with that? A merveille! Good! We can proceed. This next little fact - no! Ah, that is curious! There is something missing - a link in the chain that is not there. We examine. We search. And that little curious fact, that possibly paltry little detail that will not tally, we put it here!’ He made an extravagant gesture with his hand. ‘It is significant! It is tremendous!”

And now I will show you on the practical examples how to apply PTSD to retrieve a missing piece.

Example 1:

Quote

Penny did not seem to hear that. “It was Father’s idea to do the tilts. He even trained the first pig, but by then he was too sick to ride her, so Oppo took his place. I always rode the dog. We performed for the Sealord of Braavos once, and he laughed so hard that afterward he gave each of us a … a grand gift.”

The missing piece here is what exactly those gifts are. And to figure that out, all we need to do is to search where else were present the same elements/symbols and patterns as in Penny’s story - mummers, dwarfs, the Sealord of Braavos, gifts, and trinities (three dwarfs/three gifts).

At the Purple Wedding and the fighting pits of Meereen, there were only two mummer-dwarfs, they hadn’t given any gifts and hadn’t received any gifts, and there was no outward connection with the Sealord. These elements don’t fit into our pattern, so we put them away.

-         Mummer-dwarfs in TMK stole Butterwell’s dragon egg from Whitewalls. “There were six of them” (mummers & dwarfs & 2 trinities).

-         Three dragon eggs that belonged to Targaryens were stolen from them by Elissa Farman, who then gave them to the Sealord of Braavos (3 & the Sealord of Braavos).

-         Illyrio Mopatis gave three dragon eggs as a wedding gift to Daenerys Targaryen (3 & gifts).

-         Illyrio is Varys’ friend. Penny and her family were mummers, and so was Varys (dwarfs & mummers). Thus, there is a possibility that Varys knew Penny and her family.

The exact phrasing used here - “he gave each of us a…” also has two additional clues - 1. Whatever those gifts were, they were given by the Sealord to each of those three dwarfs, from his hands into their hands, HE gave, personally. It was something portable and small enough for a dwarf to take and carry away; 2. A “something”, possibly - “he gave each of us a dragon egg”.

Based on these facts, there is a possibility that the dragon eggs that Illyrio gave to Dany were the same eggs that Elissa Farman stole from Targaryens and gave to the Sealord, from whom then those eggs passed through several other people, and then by the latest Sealord those eggs were given to Penny, Oppo and Hop-Bean. Thus could be that those three grand gifts from Penny’s story are Dany’s dragon eggs.

Example 2 (in this case, I will lean more heavily on the deduction part of PTSD than on the symbolism or patterns):

In The Mystery Knight novel, one of the missing pieces is Bloodraven’s motive for not executing Ambrose Butterwell. He explained why he won’t execute Daemon II Blackfyre, but hadn’t explained why he spared Ambrose.

Ambrose was one of the main instigators of the Second Blackfyre Rebellion. The gathering of conspirators was happening at his castle, on his wedding. Other people, those who were less involved than Ambrose, were executed or imprisoned. Compared to them, Ambrose’s punishment was fairly light - Targaryens just took away 90% of his assets, not his head nor his bride or his freedom. Why?

Ambrose has “ae” in his name, his hair is blond, and he’s just the right age to be one of the late King Aegon’s children. Aegon had sex with the three daughters of Ambrose’s grandfather. It’s likely that two of them were Ambrose’s aunts and the third one was his mother. Could be that Ambrose Butterwell is one of Aegon’s bastards, and the dragon egg that he owned is an evidence of his dragonseed ancestry. That egg was not a gift to the old Lord Butterwell for Aegon having sex with his three daughters. Instead, it was a token for Aegon’s son, born by one of those girls. Three girls but one egg, that’s because even though all three got pregnant on that night, only one pregnancy ended successfully with a birth of a son, while the other children were either miscarried, or the others were girls, and Aegon was a chauvinist, thus he gave a gift only for the boy.

Bloodraven’s reasons for not executing Daemon - “Should I be so foolish as to remove his pretty head, (1) his mother will mourn, (2) his friends will curse me for a kinslayer, and Bittersteel will crown his brother Haegon. Dead, young Daemon is a hero. (3) Alive, he is an obstacle in my half brother’s path. He can hardly make a third Blackfyre king whilst the second remains so inconveniently alive. Besides, (4) such a noble captive will be an ornament to our court, and (5) a living testament to the mercy and benevolence of His Grace King Aerys.”

If we extend the same pattern of reasoning to Ambrose, then out of those five reasons why Bloodraven hadn’t executed Daemon, only one could be applied to Ambrose’s case (2) - he was spared because Bloodraven/other Targaryens didn’t wanted to commit unnecessary kinslaying.

Thus, Ambrose Butterwell is a hidden dragonseed, and I figured it out because in that novel there was a missing piece - the motive of why was he spared.

Just like that –> missing pieces + PTSD = mystery solved.

What missing elements or lost “suitcases” ;) have you noticed while reading ASOIAF, TWOIAF, Fire & Blood, or Dunk & Egg novels, and what is your interpretation of those missing pieces?

Let’s solve mysteries.

P.S.

Links to other parts of the "Swan Song":

Swan Song part 2/16. Johanna Swann - the black swan of a dark horse?

Swan Song part 3/16. Larra Rogare - a chameleon and a cat-woman

Swan Song part 4/16. Shiera Seastar - a cat, a shadow, and a lying crow

Swan Song part 5/16. The real cause of the First Blackfyre Rebellion

Swan Song part 6/16. A brown-haired girl and a knight as tall as Hodor

Swan Song part 7/16. The Bastard of Harrenhal

Swan Song part 8/16. The real cause of the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion

Swan Song part 9/16. The Red Widow & The Spider

Swan Song part 10/16. What happened at the Kingswood

Swan Song part 11/16. The Stallion that mounts the world

Swan Song part 12/16. The dragon has three heads

Swan Song part 13/16. The prince that was promised

Swan Song part 14/16. The Perfumed Seneschal and the Mummer's Dragon

Swan Song part 15/16. The False Prophet

Swan Song part 16/16. Exotic fruits of family trees

The End.

Edited by Megorova

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thanks M  ...  please post the next one of your series now, i need something to read  :cheers:

 

 

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Though, as it was pointed out to me by other forum members, I tend to overcomplicate things and write too much of everything at once. So not to turn my Magnum Opus into a tangled web of gibberish, I divided it into 16 separate threads, which I will gradually post on this forum (yes, there are SIXTEEN!!! of them. I know :rolleyes: I went a bit overboard

I'm officially proud 

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Posted (edited)

I want to follow, but I can't. Lots of words but some of the points seem to trail off and lack clarity. You are proposing that Larra Rogare and Serenei are the same person? Why can't Serenei be Larra's daughter? She abandoned Viserys after all. And their marriage was never blessed by her own gods and therefore easily considered invalid in Lys. She could have remarried and had a daughter. Basically I am willing to entertain the idea that the two are connected by family ties, but struggle with why that must mean they are one and the same.

Edited by Hippocras

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I'm looking forward to reading more of your posts; but in this one, I'm not quite sure what's going on with your Example 1. Do you actually think this is true, or are you just using it as an example of deductive logic?

Dragon eggs are extremely rare and valuable. I find it hard to believe that the Sealord would give three of them to some mummers, no matter how much they made him laugh.

If the mummers did receive the eggs, they would have instantly become wealthy. They would buy a manse in one of the Free Cities and retire, not continue to travel and perform in places where their only payment was food and lodging.

If the eggs were given to the mummers, how did they make their way to Illyrio?

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Aebram said:

I'm looking forward to reading more of your posts; but in this one, I'm not quite sure what's going on with your Example 1. Do you actually think this is true, or are you just using it as an example of deductive logic?

Dragon eggs are extremely rare and valuable. I find it hard to believe that the Sealord would give three of them to some mummers, no matter how much they made him laugh.

If the mummers did receive the eggs, they would have instantly become wealthy. They would buy a manse in one of the Free Cities and retire, not continue to travel and perform in places where their only payment was food and lodging.

If the eggs were given to the mummers, how did they make their way to Illyrio?

I tend to agree. In general there is a problem with putting too much emphasis on symbolism or patterns in interpreting these books in the absence of other clues. It is not that GRRM doesn't use any symbolism, it is just that he also deliberately misleads. Often.

I agree that dragon eggs are far too valuable for the circumstances. What counts as an amazing gift for Penny is not the same thing as something valuable enough for Dany to buy ships and sellswords, as Viserys wanted to do.

Edited by Hippocras

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Posted (edited)
On 5/15/2021 at 7:07 PM, Hippocras said:

You are proposing that Larra Rogare and Serenei are the same person? Why can't Serenei be Larra's daughter?

Let's discuss each topic in the corresponding thread, otherwise, when there will be 16 of them, it will turn into a total mess. I will answer this question in Larra's thread.

On 5/15/2021 at 7:07 PM, Hippocras said:

I want to follow, but I can't. Lots of words but some of the points seem to trail off and lack clarity.

I didn't wanted opening post to be too long, thus some things I only briefly mentioned, assuming that if readers will want some points to be clarified, then they can ask and I'll ellaborate.

On the topic of patterns (this time with examples and specifics):

- nearly all Valyrian names have “ae” or “ey” in them, some even have both;

Targaryen, Velaryon, Baratheon, Dayne.

Aegon, Aenar, Aerion, Aenys, Aerys, Aelyx, Alysanne, Aerea, Aemon, Aemma Arryn (half-Targaryen), Aelor and Aelora, Aelinor Penrose (wife and cousin of Aerys I), Baela, Baelon, Baelor, Daenerys, Daemon, Daeron, Daemion, Daella, Daena, Daenora, Daenaera Velaryon (wife of Aegon III), Elaena, Gael, Helaena, Jaehaerys, Jaehaera, Jacaerys, Joffrey, Laena and Laenor (Velaryons), Lucerys, Maelys, Maegor, Maegon, Maelor, Maegelle, Naerys, Rhae, Rhaella, Rhaelle, Rhaenys, Rhaenyra, Rhaegar, Rhaegel, Saera, Shaena, Shaera, Viserys, Visenya, Valerion, Vaegon, Vaella.

If I haven't missed someone, then on the entirety of the Targaryen family tree there was only four Targaryens that fell out of "ae"/"ey" pattern - Viserra (daughter of Jaehaerys I and Alysanne), Matarys and Valarr (sons of Baelor Breakspear), Alyssa Targaryen (mother of Viserys I). Though even those four had "ae" in their family name - Targaryen.

-         Targaryens mostly married with other dragonseeds - Targaryens, Velaryons, Baratheons, or with their descendants;

Let's go thru those Targaryens that married not with their sisters or their Targaryen-cousins, and not with one of the Velaryons or Baratheons.

Maegor I married with five women to whom he wasn't bloodrelated, though he was a special case and he had no children, the blood of those women wasn't mixed with the Targaryen blood, so they fell out of the pattern. Daemon Targaryen married with Rhea Royce, same case - they had no children.

Princess Rhaena married with Garmund Hightower and they had six daughters. I will explain in the following threads - Targaryens and Hightowers are actually bloodrelated thru Azor Ahai. Really.

Do you know the early history of House Hightower and Oldtown's founding? That there used to be dragons at the Battle Island where the first Hightower built a fortress of oily black stone, same material from which were built Five Forts of Yi Ti? GRRM left a trail of breadcrumbs following which it is possible to trace Azor Ahai's path after the end of the First Long Night and how his descendants settled at Valyria and Westeros. In the 7K there are four Houses whose founders were Azor Ahai's sons, though I will explain all of this in its due time. For now - just keep in mind that Hightowers and Targaryens are bloodrelated, thus Rhaena's marriage with Garmund doesn't break a pattern of bloodrelated marriages.

Then, based on the timing and other patterns present on the Targaryen family tree I figured out that one of Rhaena's daughters married with a Dayne, one with Dondarrion, one with Arryn, (Rhaena was half-sister of Viserys II, their father was Daemon Targaryen. Rhaena's six daughters were first cousins of Aegon IV, their own children were second cousins of Daeron II and Aegon's other children, and Daeron's childen were third cousins of Rhaena's great-grandchildren), thus - Baelor Breakspear and his wife Jena Dondarrion, Rhaegel and his wife Allys Arryn, Maekar and his wife Dyanna Dayne were third cousins. Three Targaryens married with a woman who was on the first glance not a Targaryen, though if you'll look closer and notice the pattern (that all of Daeron II's four sons married with their third cousins), then you'll see that actually they were bloodrelated. Their sibling, Aerys I, married with Aelinor Penrose. GRRM did mentioned that Aelinor was her husband's cousin, though he didn't elaborated what sort of cousin - first, second, or whatever. Though if you will look at the family tree of Targaryen and trace a path thru generations from Aegon IV and Rhaena's first cousins - Princess Elaena Targaryen, who married with Ronnel Penrose, and had with him one son, Robin Penrose, and three daughters, then you'll see that it's likely that Aerys' wife, Aelinor, was a daughter of Robin Penrose, and thus she was her husband's third cousin. It's a pattern - it seems that all four of Daeron II's children married outside of House Targaryen, but if you'll look deeper, you'll see that all four of those women actually were bloodrelated to the Targaryens. And thus even those four marriages are part of the pattern that Targaryens married either with other Targaryens or with their descendants.

There is a possibility, based on the patterns, that Princess Elaena's husband, Ronnel Penrose, was a descendant of Ronnal Baratheon (one of Orryn Baratheon's grandchildren. Orryn was Aegon the Conqueror's half-brother). Ronnal had sons and two daughters. One of those daughters could have married with a member of House Penrose, because Penroses were bannermen of Baratheons.

Or maybe Ronnel Penrose was a descendant of a later generation Baratheon - his ancestor could have been Ellyn Baratheon, one of the Four Storms. Ellyn was one of the potential brides for Aegon III, after his first wife died in 133 AC. Ellyn was born approximately in 105-129 AC, and Aegon was born in 120. Aegon's daughter, Elaena, was born in 150 AC. If Ellyn married with a Penrose shortly after Aegon's own wedding with Princess Daenaera, then Ronnel Penrose could have been her son. He was 10-17 years older than his wife, Princess Elaena, and thus he died years before her and after his death she had married again, and from that marriage she had no children.

Same way each marriage between Targaryen and supposedly non-Targaryen, if you'll trace it thru their family tree, turns out that actually they were bloodrelated. Except those marriages where there was no childen, for example - Rhaena Targaryen and Corwyn Corbray, Daemon Targaryen and Rhea Royce, Elaena Targaryen and Michael Manwoody, Rhaena Targaryen (a different one) and Androw Farman.  

-         Starks mostly married with other Northerners, majority of which also were their relatives;

This I will explain in one of the later threads.

-         a lot of people from the same House have similar names;

There are a lot of Bens, Brans and Lyas among Starks - Benjen, Bennard, Berena, Benedict Royce (husband of Jocelyn Stark, he was also partially Stark, will be explained later), Beron; Bran, Brandon, Bartogan, Branda; Lyanna, Lyarra, Lysara Karstark (wife of Artos Stark, also bloodrelated to him), Alysanne, Lyanne Glover (wife of Willam Stark, bloodrelated to him thru previous marriage between Stark and Glover - Cregan Stark's parents - Gilliane Glover and Rickon Stark), Lynara.

There are 12 Aegons on the Targaryen family tree; 5 Viserys and additionally several variations of this name, such as - Viserra, Visenya; multiple variations of name Rhae and Dae - Rhaella, Rhaegar, Rhaenys, Daemon, Daeron, Daenerys, Daella; etc.

-         those Targaryens that were “bad coins” had a tendency to play with fire and to kill horses;

Maegor I - when Maegor was eight, he stabbed to death a palfrey which had kicked him; burned the Sept of Remembrance. Aerion Brightflame - intentionally killed Hamfrey Hardyng's horse at the tournament at Ashford, died by drinking wildfire. Maelys the Monstrous Blackfyre - killed his cousin's horse with a single punch and then twisted his head off, him "playing with fire" will be explained later (I'll give you a hint :ph34r: Summerhall). The Mountain (bloodrelated to Targaryens, will be explained in "Swan Song part 6") burned his brother's face and their house, killed his own stallion at the Hand's tournament in AGOT. Then there was Viserra Targaryen who died when she was racing at nighttime thru streets of King's Landing and her horse collided with the mare of one of her companions. Viserra was thrown from her saddle into a wall, and she died of a broken neck. The horse probably broke its legs, which for a horse is equal to a death sentence. Viserra played with fire metaphorically, she was a bad girl. Then there was Aerys II, Aegon IV (who made wooded dragons that were supposed to breeze with wildfire), etc.

-         mass gatherings, such as tournaments or weddings, are frequently used by conspirators as a cover for their activities;

The wedding tournament at Whitewalls was a cover for the gathering of conspirators that were planning Second Blackfyre Rebellion. The Red Wedding was used as a pretext for Freys to lure Starks and their supporters into the Twins to kill them all. The Purple Wedding was used by Petyr Baelish as a cover to poison Joffrey, frame Sansa in his murder, and in the ensuing chaos to retrieve her from the Red Keep. The Hand's tournament in AGOT was used by Varys' accomplices as a cover for their gathering, Illyrio was only one of his agents, there were others who also came then to KL (will be explained later). The riots during Princess Myrcella's departure to Dorne were instigated by Varys and his agents. He used those riots for two purposes - to kill High Septon, and to insert Balon Swann (who is one of Varys' people) into Joffrey's Kingsguard.

-         those characters that try to make right choices, usually end up as martyrs;

Ned Stark spared Cersei and her children, gave her a warning about knowing the truth about them. He wanted her to save her life, to take her children and leave KL. Because of what he did, he got executed and many other bad things happened to his family and his people all over The North.

After Stannis allowed the wildlings to go on this side of The Wall, it was Jon who kept them from starving, and made for many of them places at the Night's Watch. How he got punished for it by his brothers is known.

Robb spent one night with Jeyne Westerling (most likely she used on him love potion made by her mother, granddaughter of Meggy the Frog, who was known for dealing in love potions). Afterwards, instead of casting her aside - she was the one who got into his bed - he married with her, as result - he and his mother and many of their people were butchered by the offended Freys. When he broke his previous agreement with Walder, he could have just ignored the Freys, instead, trying to compensate for the breach of their previous deal, he agreed for his uncle to marry instead of him with one of the Frey-girl, and also attended the wedding. He was trying to fix his previous mistake, to make amends with Freys. The result is known.

Daenerys married with Hizdahr, to appease the Harpy and her (his?) Sons. If Strong Belwas wasn't such a glutton, Dany would have died. 

Jaime Lannister killed King Aerys to save all the people of KL from being burned by wildfire. For what he did, now he is despised and hated by people who doesn't even know him.

Oberyn Martell tried to help Tyrion because he believe that Tyrion was prosecuted unjustly. To kill the Mountain and to avenge the death of Elia and her children, it wasn't necessary for Oberyn to fight specifically in a trial by combat. He could have just poisoned Gregor. Instead he decided to make a good deed and to help Tyrion. The result is known.

Etc.

-         nearly all love stories in GRRM’s books are tragedies, etc.

Daemon I Blackfyre and Daenerys Targaryen. Queen Naerys and Aemon the Dragonknight. Duncan the Tall and the mothers of his children (will be explained in later threads). Rhaegar and Lyanna. Robb Stark and Jeyne Westerling. Jaime and Cersei Lannister. Tyrion Lannister and Tysha. Lysa Arryn and Littlefinger (she did loved him, but he was only using her). Jorah Mormont and his wife Ceryse Hightowers (he loved her and made big sacrifices for her sake, and she was just using him). Robb and Lyanna from "A Song of Lya".

Concerning Larra and Serenei I will explain later in the corresponding thread.

Do you have more questions? Ask.

Edited by Megorova

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@Megorova I tried, but I just can't follow. Breaking it up into 16 threads does not change the fact that you are struggling to get to the point in a concise and clear way. List your points. Clearly state in as few words as possible the basis, and save full explanations and details for the discussion part of the thread. It is the only way to keep people reading. That's why scientists use abstracts.

I'm out. good luck.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Aebram said:

Do you actually think this is true, or are you just using it as an example of deductive logic?

I actually think that this is true. In the world where dragons are already extinct, the appearance of not one but THREE dragon eggs is a miracle, something on a level of being nearly impossible. So, how likely is it that the three dragon eggs stolen by Elissa Farman and brought to Braavos just dissapeared, and years later Illyrio Mopatis somehow produced three more, and those three and the first three were not the same eggs? In my opinion, it's impossible.

Seems that the Sealord, who got those eggs from Elissa, was the paternal grandfather of Bellegere Otherys. The Braavosi were intending to hatch those eggs. For that purpose they needed three children with the blood of the dragon. Because how did the Targaryens usually did with their dragon eggs? - They placed them in the cradles of their babies, for a magical link to begin forming between the dragon that will hatch from this egg and the dragonseed-child who will become this dragons rider. That's why the Sealord introduced his granddaughter to Prince Aegon Targaryen, who came to Braavos as an envoy, and was known for his promiscuity. Bellegere eventually gave birth to three of Aegon's children. But they failed to hatch those eggs.

Though the first attempt to hatch those eggs the Braavosi were intending to do by using the children of Saera Targaryen.

"When King Jaehaerys called a Great Council in 101 AC to settle the matter of his succession, three bastard sons of Saera - each fathered by a different man, one by a Triarch of Volantis - came to press their claims."

"The princess surely knew that something was amiss when the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and the Commander of the City Watch appeared together to escort her to the throne room." - F&B, The Long Reign.

Both of those men actually were Faceless Men - Gyles Morrigen and Ryam Redwyne. The Braavosi inserted Faceless Men into every set of the Kingsguards, to control population of dragonseeds. The fake-Kingsguards killed 12 children of Jaehaerys I and Alysanne, they also killed Baelor Breakspear, 7 children of Aerys II and Rhaella, etc., etc., etc. Though this Braavosi conspiracy requires its own separate series of threads and this topic isn't featured in the "Swan Song", only briefly mentioned in the next parts of SS.

The Sealord of Braavos was planning to use Saera's children to hatch those dragon eggs. When the first attempt failed, years later he (or his successor) sent his granddaughter to Aegon, to have his children. Several generations later a different Sealord tried to use Aerion Brightflame's Lyseni bastards to hatch those eggs. Though this third attempt also failed, same as the previous two with Saera's and Aegon's children.

20 hours ago, Aebram said:

Dragon eggs are extremely rare and valuable. I find it hard to believe that the Sealord would give three of them to some mummers, no matter how much they made him laugh.

The Sealord of Braavos is also the head of the Iron Bank, so he's the wealthiest person in the world. Several generations of his predecessors failed to hatch those eggs. So he knew that he will also be unsuccessful if he will try. Also, considering that it's likely that the current Sealord is a descendant from one of Bellegere's children, and there are hints in the books that he is, there is a possibility that he has a gift of foresight, same as some other dragonseeds, such as Daenys the Dreamer, Daeron the Drunken, Daemon II Blackfyre, etc. So he gave those eggs to mummer-dwarfs not solely because they made him laught, also because it could be that he previously had a prophetic vision of how he can hatch those eggs. And what he saw in that vision was some sort of metaphor for the show that he later saw performed for him by those dwarfs.

Usually dragon-dreams are different from what will actually happen. For example - Daemon II in his dream saw a dragon rising at Whitewalls, and Daeron the Drunken saw a black dragon falling on top of Duncan the Tall. In reality this is what happened - Egg stoped hiding that he is a Targaryen Prince, he put his father's ring on his finger, and gave several brash demands to Bloodraven; Baelor Breakspear died and fell on Dunk at Ashford. So the Sealord probably had some sort of metaphorical symbolic vision and some time later he saw that show - a performance by mummer-dwarfs. While he was watching that performance, he realised that its very similar to what he saw in a vision. Unlike Daemon and Daeron he realised that what he saw in a vision won't be the same thing in reality.

So he was laughing so hard not only because the performance intself was funny, but also because he realised that what he now see is actually a hint from the Gods how he can hatch those dragons eggs. Maybe he knew thru his spies that it was Illyrio who sent those dwarfs to him. Maybe originally Hop-Bean was supposed to steal the Sealord's dragon eggs. Because Varys knew from family archives of Targaryens that in the past during the incident at Whitewalls Bloodraven sent a troope of traveling mummer-dwarfs to steel Butterwell's dragon egg from Whitewalls. So Varys was attempting to do the same.

The Sealord knew that if those dwarfs will get those eggs, they will give them to whoever hired them - to Illyrio, and then Illyrio will try to hatch them by using fAegon. Though the Sealord also knew that fAegon won't be able to hatch those eggs, same as Bellegere's children, Aerion's children and Saera's children, probably because none of them were Targaryen-enough. And the eggs were "Targaryen", so they also required a pureblooded Targaryen to hatch them. He knew because thru his dragon-dreaming ability he had seen the only path by using which those eggs will hatch. And thus he gave them away.

20 hours ago, Aebram said:

If the mummers did receive the eggs, they would have instantly become wealthy. They would buy a manse in one of the Free Cities and retire, not continue to travel and perform in places where their only payment was food and lodging.

If the eggs were given to the mummers, how did they make their way to Illyrio?

The mummer-dwarfs at Whitewalls also stole a dragon egg, nevertheless they didn't became ubber rich afterwards. Because on that mission they were sent, by Bloodraven. And Hop-Bean also was sent, by Illyrio, whom he knew thru Varys.

Eventually GRRM will reveal all of it. I'm not too sure about all details of my theories being correct, though I'm sure about the general picture - Illyrio's three dragon eggs are Penny's grand gifts that she and her family had received from the Sealord, and it's the same eggs that Elisa Farman stole from the Targaryens. That way Targaryen dragon eggs eventually returned to their rightful owner - a member of House Targaryen, and eventually got hatched.

Edited by Megorova

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I agree with the first part of this. As you say, three eggs with a single owner is extremely rare. The three eggs that were given to Dany probably are the same three that Elissa brought to Braavos.

The rest of this seems very speculative. Penny's hesitation in describing the three gifts is a hint that they are important to the story. But "three eggs and also three dwarves" isn't very strong evidence. And let's remember that Braavos was founded by escaped slaves from Valyria. I doubt that they would be eager to bring more dragons into the world and put them in the hands of Targeryens.

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10 hours ago, Aebram said:

I doubt that they would be eager to bring more dragons into the world and put them in the hands of Targeryens.

That would have been the case with all the previous Sealords, who were strictly anti-dragonseed and anti-Targaryen. Though there's a possibility that the current Sealord of Braavos is a dragonseed, a descendant of Bellegere Otherys and one of her half-Targaryen children. Also, there is a possibility that the Sealord knows that Arya is a dragonseed (you can read explanation in SS-7, I'll post it today), though Arya is still alive, even though in the past other Sealords were sending Faceless Men to infiltrate Targaryen Kingsguard and to kill Targaryens, including newborn babies. For some reason he spared Arya, and let's not forget that Viserys and Daenerys also were under his control for those 5 years that they had lived at Braavos, though he not only didn't harmed them, he even helped to arrange for them an assistance from their relatives - the Martells. If Varys didn't intervened, Dany's life would have been totally different.

So could be that the reason the current Sealord is more lenient towards dragonseeds, because he is also a dragonseed, and because he has a gift of foresight (or it's one of his relatives who has it - the current Black Pearl) through which he knows what will happen in the future -  about the Second Long Night, the Others and the Promised Prince. Could be that he sees the necessity of the dragons returning into the world, and that's why he gave those eggs to mummer-dwarfs (because he knew that this is the only path that will lead to those eggs hatching), why he tried to help Dany and Viserys, and why Syrio Forel/Jaqen H'ghar helped Arya and sent her to the Sealord.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/15/2021 at 9:09 AM, Megorova said:

Ambrose has “ae” in his name

I don’t think GRRM meant just to look at names that had an a and an e somewhere.  I think the idea is that “ae” are together.  Considering that GRRM has named a lot of his characters after authors that have influenced him, my guess is that he named him after a contemporary of H.P. Lovecraft, Ambrose Bierce.  Ambrose was a political satirist and short story horror writer around the turn of the 19th and 20th century.  

Edited by Frey family reunion

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I've been looking forward to this series. Interesting first post. 

But I feel like I'm missing something - Ambrose doesn't have an "ae" in it. 

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38 minutes ago, Lady_Qohor said:

I've been looking forward to this series. Interesting first post. 

But I feel like I'm missing something - Ambrose doesn't have an "ae" in it. 

I think what she means is that the first letter of the name is an a and the last letter is an e.  But I agree with you I think GRRM meant the clue to Targaryen ancestry lied in the idea of the two letters being paired in the name.

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Posted (edited)

Some of these comments seem to be getting off-topic or hung up on examples provided by Megorova.

I realize that many people will opt out of a thread (or series of threads) that focus on literary analysis. That's fine - the books can be enjoyed on many levels and close reading of the text is not everyone's cup of tea. It's also ok to ask question or say that you don't understand - Megorova has indicated a willingness to answer questions in the comments sections. 

I hope that the people who might disagree with aspects of the big idea here will still be respectful of the immense effort Megorova has invested in this: she HAS cited passages from the text; she HAS provided evidence for her points. She admits that she will be using Patterns, Trinities, Symbols, and Deduction (PTSD) to draw inferences in the places where the text is not explicit. This is a valid approach, she has explained it and she has provided examples to show how it will work. 

I hope that people will not latch onto details or inferences as an excuse to dismiss this series of posts. In the five posts I have read so far, there are some details that strike me as leaps of logic but I will keep reading to see whether they are further explained in later posts or whether, upon reflection, Megorova's point starts to make sense in my mind. 

The Sealord's gift to Groat and Penny is an example that Megorova used to show us how her "PTSD" strategy works. It is not a central part of this Swan Song analysis. (Although it could be important later.) Similarly, the Ambrose Butterwell identity appears in this first post an example, not a central piece of the larger theory she is outlining in this series. If people latch onto these examples as a way to dismiss the entire series, they will sadly miss out on what looks to be some fresh and interesting analysis of the ASOIAF history. Instead of obsessing over these examples, why not keep your powder dry for awhile, refrain from discouraging other readers, and see what kinds of ideas Megorova will be sharing in the series of posts?

My two cents (two groats?) in support of the points that have been provoking disapproval in this thread:

I also think the Sealord gave dragon eggs to Penny and Groat. I believe that all of the action that takes place in Essos is a sort of mummer's version of the action in Westeros (for instance the two men who fight over a woman at Dany's wedding feast may represent Robert and Rhaegar fighting over Lyanna).

I believe that Groat is a symbolic version of Tyrion. Joffrey tried to get Tyrion to be his champion in the dwarf mummer jousting but he was unsuccessful. Groat's head was among those brought to Cersei when she offered a reward for anyone who could bring Tyrion's head to her.  Penny eventually succeeded in getting Tyrion to join the mummer jousting and Tyrion wore Groat's armor. So the gift of the dragon's egg to Groat was like giving a dragon egg to Tyrion. When the trading cog called the Selaesori Qhoran breaks apart during a storm, this is the symbolic hatching of a dragon egg with Tyrion being a "dragon" who emerges. 

Quote

... Easy enough to hide a young dragon in a big cog's hold, though. ... (ADwD, The Watcher)

On the Ambrose example: there is strong symbolism around a "dairy" motif to go with the role of Lord Ambrose Butterwell, Whitewalls (metaphor for a white egg hatching) and Lord Darry. If you don't buy the "AE" in Ambrose as a clue about his name, you can reach the same conclusion about his secret Targ identity (or strong affinity) in other ways. We see several important bastards who have "milk brothers," including Jon Snow. There is the dairy theme again. Jon Snow helps to persuade Ned Stark to keep the direwolf pups and his brother, Robb Stark, explains how he will soak a towel in milk to feed the orphaned pups. Jon Snow also has a vision of his brother in a tree when he is looking down at the river called The Milkwater. He also secures a wetnurse for Mance and Dalla's baby, Monster. So the dairy theme that seems to be attached to the Blackfyre Rebellion may be a hint for us about a king's bastard being nearby. 

Another clue is the similar colors in the Butterwell and Osgrey House sigils. We know that House Osgrey supported Daemon Blackfyre and that Dunk is sworn to House Osgrey. The "bars" in the Butterwell sigil are called "barry" in heraldry. Berries are important symbols associated with Osgrey's three sons who died at the Redgrass Field in The Sworn Sword. In fact, I think the three different colors in the Butterwell sigil and the story that Aegon IV impregnated all three Butterwell daughters might mean that there are two hidden Butterwell descendants who might emerge later in the Dunk & Egg stories or even in ASOIAF. 

But the clue in the name Ambrose may not be the "AE" but could be the word "rose". We know that a sister of King Baelor, Elaena Targaryen, married a Penrose. I believe that a number of Elaena's descendants are working behind the scenes in ASOIAF including Petyr Baelish. Elaena's descendants may have married Blackfyre descendants in Essos. There is a lot of thorn and rose symbolism in the books and a good bit of it seems connected to those who love Targaryens, such as Lady Olenna (the Queen of Thorns) and Lyanna (winter roses). (Olenna's connection to Butterbumps and her demand for cheese may be examples of GRRM blending the dairy and rose motifs together.) Granted, the Tyrells are all about roses but I think they may represent a subversive Targaryen line that is working to defeat the Lannisters. (I haven't perfected a "Ser Garlan Tyrell" anagram, but I think the word "Targaryen" is hidden in it.) 

I offer these only as examples of how I largely agree with Megorova, even though I have taken a different path to arrive at places close to many of her conclusions. I do not want to argue these ideas on her thread. If you have questions, let's start a separate thread to discuss any details that depart from Megorova's focus. 

Most of all, please keep an open mind or just quietly depart instead of declaring the ideas to be unsupported. Megorova has been active in this forum for a long time and she deserves our respect.

Edited by Seams

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Seams said:

If you don't buy the "AE" in Ambrose as a clue about his name, you can reach the same conclusion about his secret Targ identity (or strong affinity) in other ways.

Well we already know about his strong “Targ” affinity, actually Blackfyre affinity, because he was probably named after one of Daemon Blackfyre’ supporters (or at least had some probable connection), Ser Audrey Ambrose.  And in case there was any confusion, Lord Gormon Peake’s presence at the wedding should have been the final clue for the careful reader.

Edited by Frey family reunion

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Hello Megrova.  I like the idea that you are using the Holmes method of the dog that didn't bark to explore the text.  I haven't spent enough time on the subjects you are exploring to comment.  I will say that running 16 threads all at once would kill me.  :D  

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Some of the plot elements, about which I wrote in the other threads, require additional explanation. I hadn’t written everything in details in the Opening Posts because then they would have been too long. As I already wrote in the OP of this thread - majority of my ideas are the result of the application of “MP+PTSD” method to the elements present in the texts of ASOIAF and the companion books. My theories are based on the interpretation of patterns, symbols, and trinities used by GRRM. In each of the “Swan Song” threads there is at least one concept like that, and in some of them there are multiple elements that I had retrieved by using “MP+PTSD” method. Let’s go thru some of them, and if you have questions about some other elements of my theories, those that weren’t in detail explained in those other threads - just ask.

Let’s begin from Johanna Swann’s thread, how have I figured out that she was Larra Rogare’s mother.

The short version is this - after reading TWOIAF, logically I just thought that if Johanna Swann - a beautiful woman - was ruler of Lys in all but name, and Lysandro Rogare - a wealthy man - was the head of the privately owned Rogare Bank, which rivaled even the Iron Bank of Braavos (which probably means that Lysandro was the wealthiest man in Lys, if not in the entire world), thus it’s likely that Johanna and Lysandro were a couple, they ruled over Lys together, and Johanna was Larra Rogare’s mother. Subconsciously I also made another connection between Johanna and Larra, because in TWOIAF in the chapter The Quarrelsome Daughters: Myr, Lys, and Tyrosh, there was a text outlined by two red borders, two paragraphs about the Triarchy and Johanna Swann where it was written about Johanna that “she in time came to rule Lys in all but name”. Three paragraphs later there was again a text outlined by two red borders, two paragraphs about Larra Rogare and her Lyseni family where it was written about her father - Lysandro Rogare - that he was “the head of a wealthy banking family”. It seems that at that time, after reading that chapter, I intuitively guessed that Johanna Swann was Larra Rogare’s mother, simply based on similar patterns that I have subconsciously noticed in TWOIAF’s text, while consciously not even realizing that there were some sorts of patterns/similarities present there. That’s it. No other evidences, only that text in TWOIAF - WHAT was written there and HOW it was written. That text + logical thinking + subconscious noticing of patterns = Johanna Swann is Larra Rogare’s mother. And the other elements and clues that supported this conclusion were found/noticed by me much later.

The long version:

In TWOIAF and F&B, GRRM gave to Lysandro Rogare several titles and aliases - Lysandro the Magnificent, Magister for Life, the prince of Lys in all but name. Additionally, he had also revealed names of Lysandro’s nine legitimate children and mentioned that besides them Lysandro had 16 bastards. At this point not revealing what was the name of Larra’s mother looks very suspicious.  

In The Hedge Knight novel one of the Swanns was attending the tournament at Ashford. In The Sworn Sword novel in a conversation with Dunk it was mentioned by Ser Eustas - a Blackfyre-loyalist - that in the past the members of his House used to marry with various Great Houses of the 7K and amongst them also was House Swann. Then in AGOT, amongst the participants of the Hand’s tournament at King’s Landing, appeared Balon Swann. He participated in the archery competition alongside with Anguy and Jalabhar Xho. In The Mystery Knight novel the Blackfyre-loyalists gathered at Whitewalls castle to plan and prepare the Second Blackfyre Rebellion, while using the wedding-tournament held at that castle as a cover for their activity. The Hand’s tournament in AGOT also was used as a cover for Illyrio to meet with Varys. It’s likely that besides Illyrio, Varys’ other agents and co-conspirators also arrived at King’s Landing by using that tournament as a cover.

In my opinion both Balon Swann and Jalabhar Xho are Varys’ agents and Blackfyre-loyalists. I think that Varys’ father was Maelys Blackfyre, and could be that Jalabhar Xho’s father was another of the Ninepenny Kings - Xhobar Qhoqua. Both of them are exiled princes from the Summer Islands and they have similar names - Jalabhar Xho / Xho bar Qhoqua. If “Xho” means something like “son of” then they are - Bar the son of Jalah, and Qhoqua the son of Bar.

Also, could be that Samarro Saan the Last Valyrian was either Salladhor Saan’s father, or uncle, or grandfather. Currently Salladhor (or Salla, Davos’ friend) is actively participating in the events of ASOIAF, Jalabhar Xho was one of Robert Baratheon’s courtiers, and Balon Swann became a Kingsguard. In my opinion all of them are working for the Golden Company, and they infiltrated the court to assist Varys during the upcoming Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion.

Balon Swann is a Kingsguad, same as were Duncan the Tall and Barristan Selmy. In the books there are obvious parallels between Dunk and Barristan. I noticed those parallels even before I realized that both of those characters are secret Blackfyres, and thus they are also Johanna’s descendants and partially Swanns. During the tournament at Blackhaven, at the time when Barristan was newly appointed to become Ser Manfred Swann’s squire, he was given a nickname from Duncan the Small, who was named in honor of Duncan the Tall. So here’s another connection between Swanns, Targaryens and Blackfyres - thru the passage of names.

Years later Barristan saved Lady Jeyne Swann from the Kingswood Brotherhood. The leader of KB was Simon Toyne. Here we have another Swann - Jeyne, and another connection to the Golden Company thru their captain-general - Myles Toyne.

In ADWD Tyrion and Haldon Halfmaester were debating about Byron Swann’s death:

Quote

“Can you tell me the name of the knight who tried the same ploy with Vhagar during the Dance of the Dragons?”

Tyrion grinned. “Ser Byron Swann. He was roasted for his trouble … only the dragon was Syrax, not Vhagar.”

“I fear that you’re mistaken. In The Dance of the Dragons, A True Telling, Maester Munkun writes—”

“—that it was Vhagar. Grand Maester Munkun errs. Ser Byron’s squire saw his master die, and wrote his daughter of the manner of it.” - ADWD, Tyrion III.

It is known about Johanna Swann that her uncle, the one who refused to pay ransom for her when she was kidnapped by the Triarchy’s pirates, was the head of House Swann. Johanna also had a last name Swann, which means that her father was Lord Swann’s younger brother. Ser Byron Swann was Johanna’s father, and she was that daughter to whom his squire had sent a letter after Byron’s death.

In F&B in two chapters (“A Son for a Son” and “Rhaenyra Triumphant”) Byron Swann was called “second son of the Lord of Stonehelm”. Honestly, this part made me confused for some time, and I even thought that my theory concerning who was Byron’s unnamed daughter was wrong. Until I realized that just because the old Lord Swann (Byron’s father) had died, he hadn’t stopped being a Lord, and just because the active Lord of Stonehelm is Byron’s older brother, Byron hadn’t stopped being Lord Swann’s second son. For example, in Ned and Bran’s chapters they were referring to Rickard as Lord Rickard, even though he is dead, and thus Ned is still Lord Rickard’s second son, and Bran is still and always will be Lord Eddard’s second son. So my original idea was correct - Byron Swann being Lord Swann’s second son doesn’t contradict the possibility of him being Johanna Swann’s father.

Haldon Halfmaester is obviously working for Varys, who is a Blackfyre, and Johanna Swann is an ancestor of the Blackfyres and Bittersteel - the creator of the Golden Company. So, by mentioning Byron Swann to Tyrion, Haldon connected Johanna to the Golden Company.

If my theory concerning Johanna is correct, then her descendants were present in all three Dunk & Egg novels and all the other books of ASOIAF’s Universe. Could be that after the fall of House Rogare, orchestrated by her, Johanna returned home to Stonehelm, and took it over from her uncle’s descendants, so all the Swanns after that are the Black Swan’s descendants, same as the Targaryens and the Blackfyres.

Balon Swann was present in all five of ASOIAF’s books. Nevertheless, we still don’t know the color of his hair and eyes (same as we still don’t know the color of Dunk’s eyes, even though he’s a main character in the three D&E novels). Nor do we have description of any other Swanns that were present in ASOIAF, TWOIAF, F&B, or THK. In my opinion there is a possibility that Swanns either have “Valyrian” looks, or some other exotic coloration, because I think that the founder of House Swann migrated to Westeros from Essos, same as the founders of House Dayne and House Hightower. In my opinion all of them were Azor Ahai’s children. More on this topic you can read in “SS-16”.

In his books GRRM has created multiple connections between Swanns and the Blackfyres, and could be that he did so because Johanna Swann thru her daughter - Larra Rogare - was a matriarch and the ancestor of both Great families - the Targaryens and the Blackfyres. So fAegon is also one of Johanna’s descendants. The Blackfyre Conspiracy began from Johanna, the Black Swan, and will end with fAegon, the Black fire.

~~~

Previously unexplained elements from “SS-2” and “SS-3”: Johanna, Larra/Serenei and Shiera Seastar - the three cat-women. Concerning Larra being a cat-skinchanger everything is pretty clear - the clues were written in Fire & Blood in plain text. Now I’ll explain about the other two.

Quote

Matteno Orthys, a fervent worshipper of the goddess Pantera, was mauled and partly devoured by his prized shadowcat when its cage was unaccountably left open one night. - F&B.

The cage was left open, by someone. Though the cat hadn’t attacked that someone, nor did she tried to get out of the cage until Matteno was left alone, unattended by guards or servants. Only Matteno got attacked, no one else. The cat killed and also partially ate him, which means that at the time of the attack and for some time after it, Matteno was alone, there was no one there who could have protected him or stopped the cat from eating him. There are three possible options of how this could have happened: 1. Whoever opened that cage was a cat-skinchanger, that’s why the cat hadn’t attacked him/her; 2. Whoever opened that cage was sent there by a person who skinchanged into that shadow-cat. The cat was under this person’s control and that’s why when his/her servant opened the cage, the cat hadn’t attacked, instead it waited for the right moment when everyone was asleep and Matteno was alone; 3. No one opened the cage. The cat did it herself. Because inside that cat there was a human mind that controlled it. For an experienced skinchanger it shouldn’t be hard to use a cat’s paw to open the cage.

Haggon the wildling skinchanger noted that “Cats were vain and cruel, always ready to turn on you”. It’s hard to control cats because they are independent, proud, and capricious. To determine the right time for the attack, whoever slipped into that cat’s skin, had to either frequently go in and out, to check whether the coast is clear, or to stay inside that cat’s mind for an extended period of time, for many hours until will come a right time for the attack. To accomplish either of those things, the skinchanger that possessed that cat had to be nearby in Lys, not across the Narrow Sea. Because to establish a strong hours-long connection, or to be able to enter and exit the cat’s mind many times in a span of one day, to create a strong link like that, in this case the distance does matter. For that level of control, the controller needs to be not too far from the controlled, especially if the controlled is a cat.

At the time when Matteno was killed, Larra Rogare was already at the 7K, thus it couldn’t have been done by her. Though, considering that the skinchanging ability could be hereditary, it’s a logical conclusion that Larra’s mother also was a cat-skinchanger. Thus, she’s the one who skinchanged into Matteno’s shadowcat and killed him. Possibly she did this because when she was a courtesan, Matteno was one of her clients, and he did something because of which she had a grudge against him.

None of this was written in F&B, though all this is logical and thus you can read it “between the lines”.

Concerning Shiera being a cat-skinchanger - Mance Rayder served in the Night’s Watch at the Shadow Tower. He was attacked by an unusually behaving shadowcat. Usually, when big cats attack their prey, they go for the throat. Shiera Seastar is a shadowbinder Quaithe, her mother was a cat-skinchanger and a shadowbinder. So the Shadow Tower is a clue, same as Mance’s attacker - the shadowcat.

Quote

“I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?”

… "My brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me.” - ASOS, Jon I.

Where the shadowcat ripped Mance’s cloak, the wildling healer afterwards sewed it in three places with ribbons of scarlet silk from Asshai. Three patches of magical silk - three eyes to watch over Mance. The shadowbinder Quaithe is from Asshai and she is the Three-Eyed Crow. The silk belonged to the healer’s grandmother. Thus the healer was Shiera Seastar and the grandmother was Johanna Swann, the first out of the three cat-women in Shiera’s magically gifted family.

~~~

In “SS-3” I wrote - “Based on certain patterns, I think that Baelor the Blessed and Princess Rhaena were Gaemon’s children, while Daeron I, Daena the Defiant and Princess Elaena were fathered by Viserys.” 

Do you see the pattern? ->

Official father

 

Year of birth

Real father

Viserys II

Aegon IV

135 AC

 

Viserys II

Aemon

136

 

Viserys II

Naerys

138

 

 

 

 

 

 

Larra returned to Lys

in 139

 

 

 

 

 

Aegon II

Daeron I

143

Viserys II

Aegon II

Baelor I

144

Gaemon

Aegon II

Daena

145

Viserys II

Aegon II

Rhaena

147

Gaemon

Aegon II

Elaena

150

Viserys II

After Larra left Viserys, he and Gaemon Palehair took turns with who will father Queen Daenaera’s children.

By participating in the poisoning of Aegon III, Gaemon committed a sin of kinslaying (him and Aegon were first cousins, that’s if Gaemon really was Aegon II’s bastard). Both of Gaemon’s children - Baelor the Blessed and Rhaena - were very religious. Baelor built the Great Sept, and Rhaena became a septa. Gaemon killed Aegon and then took over his life, so his children dedicated their own lives to serve to other people. It seems that they were working off their father’s bad karma.

Baelor was married with his (not really) sister, Princess Daena, though he refused to consummate their marriage. Gaemon also for a long time after taking over Aegon’s place was avoiding his wife, Queen Daenaera. One of those Daenas gave birth to Viserys II’s three children, and the other one gave birth to the son of Viserys’ son - Daemon I Blackfyre, fathered by Aegon IV.

If my theory is correct then it means that Aegon the Unworthy had children with all three of his sisters (two of which were his half-sisters) - Daena (Daemon, 170 AC), Naerys (Daenerys, 172 AC), Elaena (Viserys, 176 or 177 AC). He was also alternating when fathering children with those women - he had a child with his half-sister in 170 AC, then a child with his full-sister in 172 AC, then again a child with his half-sister in 176/7 AC. And Daeron II is not Aegon’s son. Daeron’s real father was Aemon the Dragonknight. Maybe.

Before Gaemon became shadow-Aegon, he was a food taster. He died in 157 AC from consumption. It seems that by “consumption” GRRM means tuberculosis, which was historically called consumption due to the weight loss. Gaemon’s son, Baelor, died from prolonged fasting. Both of them withered away.

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In “SS-13” I mentioned that Khal Drogo could have been bloodrelated to Dany (which explains why their son is blond-haired and blue-eyed) and Brown Ben Plumm, thru Viserys Plumm - one of Aegon IV’s bastards. This is information known about Ben’s family:

Quote

Brown Ben laughed. “I have me a drop of the dragon blood myself, you know.”

“You?” Dany was startled. Plumm was a creature of the free companies, an amiable mongrel. He had a broad brown face with a broken nose and a head of nappy grey hair, and his Dothraki mother had bequeathed him large, dark, almond-shaped eyes. He claimed to be part Braavosi, part Summer Islander, part Ibbenese, part Qohorik, part Dothraki, part Dornish, and part Westerosi, but this was the first she had heard of Targaryen blood. She gave him a searching look and said, “How could that be?”

“Well,” said Brown Ben, “there was some old Plumm in the Sunset Kingdoms who wed a dragon princess. My grandmama told me the tale. He lived in King Aegon’s day.”

“Which King Aegon?” Dany asked. “Five Aegons have ruled in Westeros.” Her brother’s son would have been the sixth, but the Usurper’s men had dashed his head against a wall.

“Five, were there? Well, that’s a confusion. I could not give you a number, my queen. This old Plumm was a lord, though, must have been a famous fellow in his day, the talk of all the land. The thing was, begging your royal pardon, he had himself a cock six foot long.”

The three bells in Dany’s braid tinkled when she laughed. “You mean inches, I think.”

“Feet,” Brown Ben said firmly. “If it was inches, who’d want to talk about it, now? Your Grace.”

Dany giggled like a little girl. “Did your grandmother claim she’d actually seen this prodigy?”

“That the old crone never did. She was half-Ibbenese and half-Qohorik, never been to Westeros, my grandfather must have told her. Some Dothraki killed him before I was born.”

“And where did your grandfather’s knowledge come from?”

“One of them tales told at the teat, I’d guess.” Brown Ben shrugged. “That’s all I know about Aegon the Unnumbered or old Lord Plumm’s mighty manhood, I fear. I best see to my Sons.” - ASOS, Dany V.

There are several known elements and several missing pieces, so by using “MP+PTSD” method, let’s find the missing parts of Ben’s family tree and how is it connected to Drogo’s family.

Known elements:

1. Ben’s mother was a Dothraki.

2. His grandmother was half-Ibbenese and half-Qohorik.

3. His grandfather was killed by some Dothraki before Ben was born.

4. One of his ancestors was Viserys Plumm (bastard of Elaena Targaryen and Aegon IV).

5. Ben is part Braavosi, part Summer Islander, part Ibbenese, part Qohorik, part Dothraki, part Dornish, and part Westerosi.

6. Amongst his ancestors - Ibbenese-Qohorik is his grandmother, Dothraki is his mother, Westerosi is Viserys Plumm.

This following information wasn’t said by Ben, though it’s a logical conclusion based on what we do know from the books about the Dothraki - in Dothraki culture if the child’s father is a Dothraki, then the child is also a Dothraki; if the child’s mother is a Dothraki and the father isn’t, then the child is not a Dothraki. Evidence - Ben’s mother was a Dothraki, nevertheless Ben is not a Dothraki, he wasn’t raised in a khalasar and currently he is also not a member of any khalasars. Ben’s mother was a Dothraki, thus her own father (Ben’s maternal grandfather) also was a Dothraki.

All that information about his ancestors Ben had heard from his mother, and she had heard it from her own parents and grandparents, thus - 1. Ben’s grandfather, the one who was killed by a Dothraki, was his maternal grandfather, 2. that grandfather also was a Dothraki (his daughter - Ben’s mother - was a Dothraki), 3. his wife, who was part Ibbenese and part Qohorik, was Ben’s maternal grandmother, 4. Viserys Plumm was Ben’s maternal ancestor, because his maternal grandfather had heard a story about Viserys from his own mother (Ben’s great-grandmother) - “And where did your grandfather’s knowledge come from?” “One of them tales told at the teat”.

Ben is closer in age to King Aerys than to Dany, though Viserys Plumm was significantly younger than Daeron II, even though they were (half) siblings.

Years of birth: Aegon IV - 135 AC, Princess Elaena (Viserys Plumm’s mother) - 150, Daeron II - 153, Baelor Breakspear - 170, Daemon I Blackfyre - 170, Daenerys Targaryen - 172, Aerys I - 172-176, Rhaegel - 173-177, Maekar I - 174-178, Viserys Plumm - 176 or 177; Aerys II - 244 AC. 

Based on all that information, this is what we have:

 

Brown Ben Plumm

Aerys II

Father (unknown)

Mother (Dothraki)

Jaehaerys II

mGrandmother (Ibb/Qoh)

Maternal Grandfather (Dothraki)

Rhae, Egg, Daella, Aemon, Daeron, Aerion

Dothraki-husband

Great-grandmother (Viserys’ daughter)

Wife (unknown)

Viserys Plumm

Maekar I

Elaena Targaryen

Aegon IV

Daeron II

 

Aegon IV

Unknown elements:

1. Who was Ben’s father (ethnically)?

2. Ethnicity of Viserys Plumm’s wife?

We had already established which of Ben’s ancestors were Ibbenese, Qohorik, Dothraki and Westerosi. What remains is this: Braavosi, Summer Islander, Dornish. There are three ethnic groups left and two people with unidentified ethnicity, thus one of those two is half and half, same as Ben’s maternal grandmother. Considering that amongst Viserys Plumm’s half-siblings there were Otheryses, who were part Braavosi and part Summer Islanders, it makes sense if one of Ben’s ancestors also was Braavosi-Summer Islander. This combination seems more likely than the other two options - 1. Braavosi-Dornish and Summer Islander, or 2. Dornish-Summer Islander and Braavosi. Thus Ben’s father was either Dornish or Braavosi-Summer Islander, and Viserys Plumm’s wife was either Braavosi-Summer Islander or Dornish. Now let’s think what is more likely - that Viserys Plumm married with a woman from Dorne, or with a woman who was Braavosi-Summer Islander?

To figure that out let’s use what other information is known about his family.

Viserys’ mother - Princess Elaena - was only three years older than King Daeron II. Both Daeron and his younger sister - Princess Daenerys - married with people from Dorne - Myriah and Maron Martell. For his wife Daeron built a castle in Dornish Marches - Summerhall. Elaena’s third husband was Michael Manwoody, a Dornishman. House Manwoody’s seat, Kingsgrave, is placed amidst the Prince’s Pass, guarding access to Dorne. Two of Daeron’s sons (that officially were Viserys’ second cousins once removed, but actually were his nephews, because their father was Viserys’ half-sibling) married with girls from House Dondarrion (their seat Blackhaven is located in Dornish Marches, in the Stormlands) and House Dayne (their seat Starfall is located in the western Red Mountains thru which leads the Prince’s Pass). Considering that during Daeron’s reign Dornishmen were favored by the King and, with the combination of all that other information about Viserys’ relatives, it seems likely that Elaena or Daeron married Viserys to a Dornishwoman.

Is it possible to narrow down amongst all the Houses of Dorne with whom exactly did Viserys married? (it goes a bit too much off topic, thus I placed those speculations under spoiler)

Spoiler

I think that it is possible, because there are clues in the books. For example this:

Quote

Egg’s ears pricked up at that name. “Plumm… are you kin to Lord Viserys Plumm, ser?”

“Distantly,” confessed Ser Maynard, a tall, thin, stoop-shouldered man with long straight flaxen hair, “though I doubt that His Lordship would admit to it. One might say that he is of the sweet Plumms, whilst I am of the sour.” - TMK.

It could be that Egg got so interested in whether Ser Maynard is bloodrelated to Viserys Plumm because Viserys was related to Egg’s mother - Dyanna Dayne. I think that Viserys Plumm’s wife was a member of House Dayne, possibly one of Dyanna’s sisters, which means that Viserys was Dyanna’s brother-in-law. Furthermore, I think that maybe during the First Blackfyre Rebellion, Viserys Plumm supported the Blackfyres, not the Targaryens.

In AWOIAF-Wikia it is said - “Regardless of the true paternity of the child, Elaena's son, Viserys Plumm, inherited Ossifer's lands and titles. Viserys ruled throughout the reign of King Daeron II Targaryen, and still ruled during the early years of the reign of King Aerys I Targaryen, at least.[7]

I think that it could be a misconception that Viserys supposedly ruled throughout the reign of Daeron II and Aerys I. Just because Viserys in TMK was referred by both Egg and Bloodraven as a Lord, doesn’t mean that he at that time ruled over House Plumm. Bloodraven/Maynard Plumm said that he is one of the sour Plumms and that Viserys is one of the sweet Plumms. By this he meant either that while Bloodraven is officially known to be one of Aegon’s bastards, Viserys is pretending that he isn’t; or he could have meant that during the Blackfyre Rebellion Viserys supported Daemon, who was loved by people, thus he is a sweet Plumm, and Bloodraven supported Daeron, thus he is a sour Plumm. Also there was this:

Quote

“I should have gone with Bittersteel into exile, or died beside my sons and my sweet king. That would have been a death worthy of a chequy lion descended from so many proud lords and mighty warriors. Daeron’s mercy made me smaller.” - TSS.   

Ser Eustas was referring to Daemon as “my sweet king”, even though Daemon was never crowned. Thus, just because Egg and Bloodraven were referring to Viserys Plumm as a Lord, doesn’t mean that he was still ruling House Plumm and that he still was in the 7K.

Could be that the Plumms that currently live in Westeros are not Viserys’ descendants; instead they are descendants from Ossifer Plumm’s real children. Ossifer was an aged man when he married Princess Elaena, so it’s likely that it wasn’t his first marriage and he already had adult children, and one of his own sons after his death inherited Ossifer’s seat as the head of House Plumm. And Egg was referring to Viserys as a Lord because possibly Aegon IV bestowed upon Viserys some other castle or a keep and gave him a Lord’s title. Thus there was two Lord Plumms, same as there are two Lord Fossoways - one in Cider Hall, the other in New Barrel. There’s also House Dayne of Starfall and House Dayne of High Hermitage. And there are also several more Houses like that, for example - Flint, Brune, Foote. King Aegon could have created for his son a side-branch of House Plumm, that’s why Viserys is a Lord Plumm, even though he wasn’t Ossifer Plumm’s successor.

Viserys was close in age to Daemon Blackfyre and Daenerys. Also, as one of Aegon’s bastards, he had more in common with Daemon than with Daeron. So could be that he was pro-Blackfyre and thus he fought for Daemon in the First Blackfyre Rebellion. And afterwards went into exile together with Bittersteel and the other pro-Blackfyres. So when he migrated to Essos, he took with him his Dayne-wife, who was Dyanna’s sister and Egg’s aunt. Egg’s sister - Princess Daella - was born in 199 AC, several years after the Rebellion. So maybe Dyanna named her daughter in honor of her sister, with whom they were separated.

Thus, could be that Viserys Plumm’s wife was named Daella Dayne, or something similar - Daela, Daena, Daenna, Daenaera, Daeh, Daenys, Daenerys. Or maybe his wife was some other Dornishwoman. :dunno:

For now let's call her Daella Dayne. I have reasons to think that whether Viserys' wife was named Daella, or something else, in my opinion most likely she was a member of House Dayne (this part I will explain a bit later, after I will post "SS-16").

If my speculations about Viserys being pro-Blackfyre are correct then, after he and his family migrated to Essos, one of his daughters married a Dothraki, and she was Brown Ben Plumm’s great-grandmother.

Sister of Viserys Targaryen - Daenerys - married with a Dothraki Khal (Drogo), as a payment for ten thousand screamers that Drogo was supposed to provide for Viserys’ conquest of the 7K. Could be that Viserys Plumm’s daughter married with a Dothraki as a payment for horses that Dothraki gave to Bittersteel for newly created by him Golden Company.

Thus I explained why Viserys’ wife could have been Dornish (possibly a member of House Dayne), why they could have migrated to Essos, and why one of his daughters could have married a Dothraki. The only missing element left is Ben’s father.

It’s likely that Ben’s father was a descendant of the Otheryses; specifically he was a descendant of Balerion Otherys. Let’s apply here relevant symbols and patterns.

Brown Ben Plumm / Black Pearl of Braavos.

Brown / Black, Plumm / Pearl, Ben / Braavos.

Ben is a shortened version of name Balerion.

Now let’s fill in remaining gaps with the information that we deducted:

 

Brown Ben Plumm

Khal Drogo

Aerys II

Father (Braavosi-Summer Islander)

Mother (Dothraki)

Khal Bharbo

Jaehaerys II

Grandmother (Ibb/Qoh)

Grandfather (Dothraki)

Other children

Aegon V

Dothraki-husband

Viserys’ daughter

Wife (Dornishwoman) possibly a Dayne, maybe Daella Dayne

Viserys Plumm

Maekar I

Elaena Targaryen

Aegon IV

Daeron II

 

Aegon IV

Thus, Drogo (same as Ben) was Aegon the Unworhty’s 3-times-great-grandson, Dany’s fourth cousin once removed, and 1/16 dragonseed (Viserys Plumm was a pureblooded Targaryen on both sides). Rhaego has silver-gold hair and violet eyes, even though he is half-Dothraki, because both of his parents are “blood of the dragon”.

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