Covid- Thank you, Next! Get out of our lives.

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Nothing surprising or unexpected in the UK data shown in that tweet.  That little table in the tweet though doesn't provide enough information to be able to estimate vaccine efficacy at all.  You need the total number of the population in each of the the categories, i.e. X million unvaccinated, Y million received first dose, Z million received two doses, etc.), and the data needs to be stratified by important risk factors, such as age at the least.  Only then can you even attempt to estimate a rough vaccine efficacy.

Maybe this data is found in the full report, but if not, I assume it will be published in a follow up report after they've done some additional number crunching.

Coincidentally I just saw this attempt to make an estimate of what the efficacy might be along with some discussion of the potential limitations of trying to work it out from the available data. We'll have to wait to see whether his estimate does turn out to be accurate.

 

[maarsen]

47 minutes ago, Zorral said:

White people are major vaxx refusniks.  Has that been forgotten?  Just outright refusing.  Also even when dying insisting that covid-19 is a hoax.  Gimme a frackin' break.  It's mostly white people who are the problem.

As an observer of stupidity I have to agree. I suppose being white gives you more leeway to be stupid without facing most of the consequences. 

[Raja]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

We'll have to wait to see whether his estimate does turn out to be accurate.

Yeah - as I stated previously, that's what PHE are trying to work out right now, and to be fair to the author of that thread, they make it clear that the data put out by PHE wouldn't let us determined vaccine effectiveness, except for the fact that it's not 100%. Though PHE seem highly confident that there is evidence of *some* reduced effectiveness, if you look at their risk assessment page for Delta - and given the uncertainty & the context of the current situation, I think a cautious approach to restrictions is the right one.

Quote

There are now analyses from England and Scotland supporting a reduction in vaccine effectiveness for Delta compared to Alpha. This is more pronounced after one dose (absolute reduction in vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection of approximately 15% to 20% after 1 dose). Iterated analysis continues to show vaccine effectiveness against Delta is higher after 2 doses but that there is a reduction for Delta compared to Alpha. There is uncertainty around the magnitude of the change in vaccine effectiveness after 2 doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine

Although this is observational data subject to some biases, it holds true across several analytic approaches and the same effect is seen in both English and Scottish data. It is strongly supported by pseudovirus and live virus neutralisation data from multiple laboratories. There are no data on whether prevention of transmission is affected. The analysis of vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is in process. The acquisition of the mutation K417N, which may be antigenically significant, in a small number of cases is noted

Looking at the big picture, it does look like we will at least see a 2 week delay to the June 21st re-opening, perhaps even a 4 week delay. The government have no one but themselves to blame regarding the delay given how late India was put under the red list & a track and trace system that we've basically given up on.

Masks & social distancing are to stay, and imo, we're basically not in a stringent lockdown right now ( at all) so I am perfectly fine with social distancing & masking restrictions continuing till we have more information regarding delta.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Could the non-recommended extended time intervals between shots the UK has been doing reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines?

Delta has been showning up in Austria and they could not find the infection chain in most cases I have read about...they had a year to get things right and it is party time and pandemic is over mode again.

[JoannaL]

15 hours ago, Padraig said:

COVID trends always surprise me.  Ireland's numbers have been very stable over the last 2 months.  We were one of the best countries in Europe in early April but by early June we were well below average..  Not because we had gotten worse but because everyone else was getting much better.  But then this week, we've had a major improvement in figures.  It does make you believe the theory about warm weather affecting COVID.  Our summer arrives late...

Sure its the summer. While our expert  seem not to agree how much the summer helps (between 20% and 60%  R-reduction so big difference  in expert opinion) they ALL agree that corona will be back in fall. so for me that means summer (the outdoors, so not the summer in air condition regions of the world) helps a lot. In Germany the virus went away so quickly after a grimm April, that we stumbles into openings without any forwarning (e. g monday school only open for half the class, mask wearing  (because the incidence rate for the last week was over 100) to Tuesday all class no mask wearing (because the rate next week was under 35). It was quite disconcerting (but in a good way).

Now it looks great but we do have to get accustomed to it yet. The delta variant has not yet arrived here (3. week of May 3 %, 4. week of May 2,5 %), but also last time alpha first hit the UK then Ireland and Portugal and then creeped into the rest of the EU.

[ljkeane]

8 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Could the non-recommended extended time intervals between shots the UK has been doing reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines?

All the study on that so far suggests it increases the effectiveness of the vaccines.

ETA: The concern would be that for other variants it seemed like one dose was providing an adequate level of protection in the 3-12 week period while waiting for a second dose. That may no longer be the case with the Delta variant.

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, ljkeane said:

ETA: The concern would be that for other variants it seemed like one dose was providing an adequate level of protection in the 3-12 week period while waiting for a second dose. That may no longer be the case with the Delta variant.

That does seem to be a potentially bigger concern with the delayed second dose strategy and the Delta variant, although without the delayed doses there would be more completely unvaccinated people which would also be bad for the Delta variant. There are currently about 12 million of us in the UK who have only had a single dose. That has been mentioned as one of the arguments for delaying the next stage of re-opening, if it was 4 weeks later then that could be about another 8 million people fully vaccinated at current rates.

In other news, I thought this story seemed encouraging about suggesting that some vaccine hesitancy can be overcome:
(the board's quoting got a bit mixed up here again):

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/12/most-people-in-uk-initially-opposed-to-covid-vaccine-have-had-jab-study-finds

Quote

More than half of the people in the UK who were firmly against getting vaccinated at around the time the first dose was administered have had a jab, a study has suggested.

Researchers at the University of Bristol and King’s College London also found that about one in seven of the staunchest sceptics who have yet to be vaccinated have changed their minds and intend to get the jab when offered it.

Although there are still some issues:

 

But, while the data suggests people are becoming more comfortable with the idea of getting vaccinated, the researchers cautioned against being complacent. They pointed to large disparities along racial and religious lines.

I suspect the picture could also be very different in different countries as well.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, JoannaL said:

The delta variant has not yet arrived here (3. week of May 3 %, 4. week of May 2,5 %), but also last time alpha first hit the UK then Ireland and Portugal and then creeped into the rest of the EU.

Yes.  Ireland could be an early warning system.  Delta is below 5% at the moment but it is already up to 25% in N Ireland, so tick tock.  That's why it is unfortunate that we are still relying on Pfizer/Biontech so much (which is holding up its side of things at least).  Moderna is gradually increasing (as it planned).

And in fact, Portugal is one of the very few European countries that is seeing a consistent uptick in cases (although not as bad as the UK).  Opening up to the UK previously was probably a bad idea.

Travel between Ireland and the UK over Christmas really didn't help either.  I think the mindset has changed here at least but its still a matter of time.

10 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Could the non-recommended extended time intervals between shots the UK has been doing reduce the effectiveness of the vaccines?

Somebody can correct me if i'm wrong but i'm not sure how much science is behind the recommended interval?  Pfizer/Moderna etc felt that 1 dose wouldn't be good enough, so they had to schedule a 2nd.  3 to 4 weeks was probably the minimum credible gap allowed.  But the pharma companies picked that size because the smaller the gap, the sooner they'd get results and start making money.  (That is my impression from reading stuff anyhow).  They never specifically tested the length of the gap it in trials.

A 3 to 4 week gap clearly works, so there is logic behind applying it.  And mRNA is a new technology, so I suppose there was a question about whether it would behave like a typical vaccine. OTOH, i'm sure scientists must have looked at what the optimum gap between doses is in general (not talking about COVID).  Maybe there is no real standard?  Sometimes it works best at 4 weeks, sometimes it works best for 12 weeks.  Sometimes it doesn't matter between 4 or 16 weeks!

But I realised the Pfizer/Biontech gap is at least (in part) a strategic decision, not a scientific one.  In a few years we'll probably categorically know what the optimum gap is!

45 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I suspect the picture could also be very different in different countries as well.

I believe all countries (even France!) has seen an improvement in willingness to be vaccinated.  So yay for that.

[Loge]

30 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Yes.  Ireland could be an early warning system.  Delta is below 5% at the moment but it is already up to 25% in N Ireland, so tick tock.  That's why it is unfortunate that we are still relying on Pfizer/Biontech so much (which is holding up its side of things at least).  Moderna is gradually increasing (as it planned).

And in fact, Portugal is one of the very few European countries that is seeing a consistent uptick in cases (although not as bad as the UK).  Opening up to the UK previously was probably a bad idea.

Travel between Ireland and the UK over Christmas really didn't help either.  I think the mindset has changed here at least but its still a matter of time.

Somebody can correct me if i'm wrong but i'm not sure how much science is behind the recommended interval?  Pfizer/Moderna etc felt that 1 dose wouldn't be good enough, so they had to schedule a 2nd.  3 to 4 weeks was probably the minimum credible gap allowed.  But the pharma companies picked that size because the smaller the gap, the sooner they'd get results and start making money.  (That is my impression from reading stuff anyhow).  They never specifically tested the length of the gap it in trials.

A 3 to 4 week gap clearly works, so there is logic behind applying it.  And mRNA is a new technology, so I suppose there was a question about whether it would behave like a typical vaccine. OTOH, i'm sure scientists must have looked at what the optimum gap between doses is in general (not talking about COVID).  Maybe there is no real standard?  Sometimes it works best at 4 weeks, sometimes it works best for 12 weeks.  Sometimes it doesn't matter between 4 or 16 weeks!

But I realised the Pfizer/Biontech gap is at least (in part) a strategic decision, not a scientific one.  In a few years we'll probably categorically know what the optimum gap is!

I believe all countries (even France!) has seen an improvement in willingness to be vaccinated.  So yay for that.

Well, the question is why you need two shots to begin with. Obviously, they could just give you a double dose. Whatever creates the need for a second shot, there obviously has to be a minimum time between the shots or they could give you just one. So one should guess the chose the shortest possible for the trials to get them done as fast as possible. If they hadn't we probably still wouldn't have any vaccines. In Germany, the recommended time between shots is six weeks for Biontech/Pfizer and Moderna and twelve weeks for AstraZeneca, so they go for the long end of the approved time span. Can't tell you what the reasoning is. Probably the same as in the UK. Still, first time vaccinations have somewhat slowed down as the bulk of the vaccine is needed for second time vaccinations.

Got my first dose of Moderna today. 

[Zorral]

Quote

 

More people have died of Covid-19 this year than in all of 2020, as some of the deadliest outbreaks of the pandemic tear through nations that are struggling to vaccinate their people.

On Wednesday, the number of deaths recorded this year surpassed the total last year, according to data collected by The New York Times. The global death toll before the midway point of 2021 is more than 1,882,000, eclipsing the 1,874,531 deaths recorded for all of 2020, according to official statistics....

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/06/12/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask?

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Loge said:

So one should guess the chose the shortest possible for the trials to get them done as fast as possible. If they hadn't we probably still wouldn't have any vaccines.

Agreed.  My point was that the "recommended gap" isn't neccessarily the "optimal gap".  But as you say, it does mean we got vaccinations faster, and it does allow people reach near peak immunity faster.

Delaying second doses had advantages too.

Congrats on the vaccination!

[Luzifer's right hand]

5 current Delta cases in Austria are people who returned from Russia, Maldives, Nepal, Italy and El Salvador. 

It does not look like we are trying to win this game of pandemic...

 

 

[Zorral]

All sorts of They Sayers are saying covid's here for good and that, why yes, just forget about that herd immunity fantasy.  Ain't happening, ain't gonna happen, folks.

Due to Delta spread it does seem the UK isn't going to completely open this week, which is good.  But we're wide open here, so we know what to look forward to.

While the new surges in Southeast Asia are of course hitting hard the factory workers who make everything we USians use.  Again, not a surprise, is this?

 

[Fragile Bird]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the US this week, now that it's two weeks after the Memorial Day holiday. Keep your fingers crossed.

[Zorral]

As for the US, Don't forget the international Gay Pride Week, that brings in people from all over the world and the country to NYC; they've been coming here, along with other tourists, since the last two weeks of May.

[DaveSumm]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

All sorts of They Sayers are saying covid's here for good and that, why yes, just forget about that herd immunity fantasy.  Ain't happening, ain't gonna happen, folks.

What definition of herd immunity are you working with here? If it’s just ‘any immunity’ then at some point enough of the population will have either had Covid, or had a vaccine, to keep the R below zero  during normal social practices. Isn’t that the goal?

[DireWolfSpirit]

I would love for the major cruise operators to stand their ground against the bullying tactics of the Republican Guvs like Abbot and DeSantis who are pushing against any checks of whether passengers are vaxxed.

I believe they've made mention that can easily Port of call in the Bahamas and other Caribean ports and skip Texas and Florida if their hands are forced.

Dont compromise our safety for these bullies to gain brownie points with their base(s).

I certainly wouldn't want to be trapped on a cruise with some filthy unvaccinated red staters. Nor do I want to see a same such infected group released back into our communities after infecting each other at sea.

[Zorral]

That didn't work with the Bubonic Plague though, did it?  It kept returning for centuries. So did small pox, yellow fever, typhus, etc., as does malaria.

As long as a significant number of people in the world aren't vaccinated against this disease, it will return.

~~~~~~~~~~~

In the meantime our state has the lowest rate of infection now, in the country: infection rate dipped to 0.44% this weekend.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid19-rate-drops-20210612-wwkznvv2x5flno6r3p2jgftf2y-story.html

Quote

Just over 20 million vaccines have now been administered in the state. Nearly 70% of adults have received at least one shot and 60% are fully vaccinated.

Which rate of vaccination seems to be where the country as a whole will hang: 50%. Which gets us nowhere near that unicorn quaintly referred to as herd immunity.

~~~~~~~~~~~

This is the consequence of covid -- just one of the terrible health consequences of covid.  Not that disease in itself, but what it has done to our health systems across the board, which were dreadful to start with, and the same for every other so-called safety net for everything from hunger to mental illness:

"People are no longer afraid of the hospital. So the crowd is pouring in the door, with their neglected diseases, with their pent-up fears, and with all the usual cathartic expressions of release — alcohol and meth and violence."

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-the-new-emergency-20210612-nssq2y3sife6hbcoxtxyik57bq-story.html

Quote

 

The pandemic, of course, is not over. But it’s receding. In its place, a new wave of need. People are no longer afraid of the hospital. So the crowd is pouring in the door, with their neglected diseases, with their pent-up fears, and with all the usual cathartic expressions of release — alcohol and meth and violence. Summer is here, and the sun outside is bright.

At the height of the pandemic, before the vaccines, the place was eerie and slow. It was COVID again and again, but not much else. We’d sit there in our masks, waiting. The shifts were frightening and easy at the same time. Now, as if overnight, they have never been busier, or harder.

It would be a mistake to see a return to normalcy in this. It does not feel normal. The edges feel sharper, the behaviors more extreme. There is a kind of wildness in the air, and for us, another kind of challenge, more familiar in its contours, but striking all the same.

You walk out into the lobby, and a sea of faces turns toward you. You are looking for a middle-aged woman you’ve been told has gastrointestinal bleeding who has been waiting for five hours in a plastic chair. There is nowhere else to put her. So you talk to her about her bloody bowel movements in front of 50 or 60 waiting strangers, some of whom are listening closely, because you have no other choice. It is humiliating for everyone....

 

 

[Gorn]

On 6/11/2021 at 6:42 PM, Padraig said:

Yet people are saying in survey's that work is a major issue (for those unvaccinated).   How do you square that?

Probably paywalled but this goes through all the other vaccination candidates.  Nothing particularly major in it but a good summary.

It's simply not logical that people are afraid of missing work because of the vaccine (two days at most for a minority of cases), when the vaccine prevents them from missing work because of Covid (two weeks, and that's if they're lucky to get a mild case).

At this point, I'm half-convinced that anti-vaxxers and people who are afraid of needles are just picking the most socially-acceptable option from a list offered to them by a pollster. "Oh yeah, I'm afraid of missing work, that's why I won't take the shot. Yeah, that's it."

[Fragile Bird]

I’m watching the CEO of Novavax, Stanley Erck, being interviewed on CNBC. They have released the efficacy data, 90%, but 83% of the virus they faced was a variant, including a tiny amount of Delta, and the efficacy was 93% against variants. Most of the variant cases were the UK version (is that Alpha?). There were lots of other good news numbers, the press release will be worth reading.

He also said their supply issues have been resolved and plant sites around the world are manufacturing doses. The next step is doing an assay of doses to confirm different plants are making identical vaccine, information the US wants before their application is filed.

Erck said he expects that the US will likely donate the vaccine they have orders for, which is just fine with them.  But he thinks their vaccine will make an excellent booster shot.