Formula 1 2020/2021: Shits getting crazier

[Werthead]

2 hours ago, kungtotte said:

I mean, Tsunoda was fully off the track and no yellows were thrown when Perez got distracted and went off. So you can't really blame Tsunoda for that. And Perez was the first one back on track when Max was coming through which messed up Max's lap, and that is really on Perez/Red Bull.

Laying any of that on Tsunoda is a stretch.

Tsunoda certainly didn't mess anything up on purpose, but it was a chain reaction thing. Tsunoda going off track distracted Perez, who braked late, couldn't make the corner and went off (almost hitting Tsunoda in the process), and then Max saw all this unfolding and braked because he assumed yellows would come out, and then they didn't and he realised he'd screwed up his lap for nothing.

The Red Bulls definitely seemed a bit behind where they should be and Mercedes seem to have picked up some pace from the power unit, so it's arguable if Max could have really shot for pole anyway, but that didn't help.

[Werthead]

That was fun. Perez on a real charge there but the dirty air effect stopped him from passing. However, the ferocious battle for second on strategy did allow Max to just sail off into the distance and score a very comfortable victory.

Bottas's early spin demolished his race and prevented him from really playing a role, but his sneaky fastest lap later on meant that he kept Max's lead over to Hamilton to 19 rather than 20 points. More important, it keeps Mercedes in the lead of the constructor's championship, though only by 1 point.

Brazil should be a happy hunting ground for Red Bull as well, though the aero deficit shouldn't be anywhere as bad, so Hamilton might be able to fight more for the win and possibly Bottas could be in the mix as well. It does feel like a Verstappen championship win but Mercedes retaining the constructor's is the likely outcome, unless Perez can sustain this excellent recent run of form.

[kungtotte]

I've got to say it was clumsy of the two Mercedes not to box Max in at the start. They left him half the track to sail unopposed to a position where he could outbrake them into T1. If Bottas moves left earlier and Lewis follows to run down the middle, we'd have a very different race.

[TheLastWolf]

Sad lipe Ham fans

[Werthead]

Yikes. Lewis gets on pole for the sprint but with a 5-place grid penalty for the race. But the stewards have discovered that the gap in the DRS wing was larger than the maximum permitted distance. If judged to be an infringement - and I'm not sure how it could be argued it isn't - Hamilton will get sent to the back of the sprint running order, which sets the running order for the main race.

This is a bit of a shitshow. Hamilton would only have a few laps to get from the rear of the grid to the front, which will likely be impossible given the amount of dirty air he'll have to run in. That would give Max a massive boost off the front of the grid in the Sunday race. If the Mexico form holds true again - Mercedes getting a huge qualifying boost at the expense of long run pace, helped by Red Bull being off their qualifying game and improving in the race - then Hamilton might have just kissed the championship goodbye. Even if he wins the last three races, Max just has to hold in second place in each one to still win by a comfortable margin.

[Toth]

Mercedes' footage of Verstappen tampering with Hamilton's car: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nk-g6ax-ByI

 

[Werthead]

That was a bit of a chaotic mess. Good result for Verstappen, but the thunderous rate at which Hamilton ate up the rest of the field was incredible. I think Hamilton will make it onto the podium tomorrow, but Verstappen needs to stay on it otherwise he could fall backwards into Hamilton's clutches.

It feels like the championship is on a bit of a tightrope now. One wrong or risky move from either Hamilton or Verstappen could lose it to the other driver, though Verstappen is in the stronger position overall.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Hamilton is a beast. What a great race.

[Toth]

That Merc is a beast.

[BigFatCoward]

1 minute ago, Toth said:

That Merc is a beast.

Bottas has the same car and gets nowhere near the same out of it. 

[Toth]

5 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Bottas has the same car and gets nowhere near the same out of it. 

I'm not denying that Hamilton is a great driver, but all the skill in the world can't make your car 30 km/h faster on straights than every other car on the track. And it's the straights where he made almost all of his passes.

I also highly doubt that Bottas has the exact same car. Due to Verstappen's streak they seem to have made some rather massive upgrades. Granted, Bottas also had significantly better pace, but it's just logical that their title guy will get priority treatment.

[kungtotte]

You need to knock off about 12-15 KPH from the speed delta to get the non-DRS pace advantage. Lewis' car wasn't 30 KPH faster down the straight, it was around 15 KPH faster with another 12-15 granted by DRS, which is also the figure that Horner has said they've observed.

[Toth]

1 minute ago, kungtotte said:

You need to knock off about 12-15 KPH from the speed delta to get the non-DRS pace advantage. Lewis' car wasn't 30 KPH faster down the straight, it was around 15 KPH faster with another 12-15 granted by DRS, which is also the figure that Horner has said they've observed.

Yes. Yesterday they said he's 27 km/h faster than Norris when he overtook him with DRS. But he also casually overtook Ocon, Vettel and Ricciardo while they were all in a DRS train behind Gasly. Add to that that everyone is struggling to overtake because of dirty air drastically slowing the car down when you are behind someone and Hamilton has still such an insane advantage to brute force a pass it's not even funny anymore.

[Werthead]

That was one of the all-time great drives, and a massive riposte to those who still claim that Hamilton isn't one of the GOATs. That was a monster drive, accompanied by a genuinely excellent duel for the win which Hamilton showed excellent judgement in how to approach (and Verstappen showed very poor judgement, and was lucky not to take them both off). Bottas was solid but couldn't match that pace (which is really the story of his Mercedes career).

Verstappen's arguably had somewhat superior form over the course of the season (and the better car for most of it), but he had absolutely no answer for that.

Three races left and Verstappen needs to win at least one of them and come second in the other two, or for Hamilton to have some kind of problem. But if he couldn't win with Hamilton being disqualified and then getting an addition 5-place penalty, it's hard to see what he can do. He has to hope that Interlagos's odd mix of long straights and short turns over a relatively short track created a unique effect that won't recur in the last three races (and Brazil has a history of throwing up oddball results that don't quite jive with the rest of the season, such as Max winning in 2019 in a far inferior car to the Mercedes that year).

They do all have the additional challenge of two of these three races being brand new circuits no one has ever driven at before, so they have no idea of the surface/temperature windows and how the tyres and aero will work with them. I've seen a few MotoGP fans and pundits also cautioning that Qatar in particular suffers from sand being blown onto the track mid-session, which is something they really need to be careful of and could make for an unpredictable race.

[williamjm]

It was a great win for Hamilton and it was a great duel for the lead of the race. I'm not sure there is much more Verstappen could have done about it, they did seem to play the strategic game well. I did think Max was possibly lucky not to pick up a 5-second penalty for keeping his place by driving off the track, not that it would have made any difference in the end.

A poor race here could have meant Hamilton's championship chances were almost over but now he's right back in the mix. As Wert says it is difficult to really make a prediction now with two brand new tracks to come.

[Winterfell is Burning]

That was quite a race. One of the greatest weekends by anyone ever by Hamilton.

[TheLastWolf]

The man The Merc The meme The legend. Now I can tell my grandkids- ok gone too far. But Hamilton is simply a monster!

[BigFatCoward]

Bottas really shit the bed there. Having a much weaker team mate has really cost Hamilton this year.

[polishgenius]

And then Mercedes shit the bed by getting the tyre read wrong, though three more cars failing despite being on two-stops suggests there's a manufacturing/testing issue there for the new track.

[Werthead]

Good to see Alonso on the podium again. Red Bull felt a little closer there, but Mercedes were reportedly using a scrubbed engine, and will redeploy the new(ish) engine from Brazil for the next two races.

Red Bull need just one upgrade or step up to be able to compete on an even keel, otherwise they might be left hoping for a Hamilton DNF or some kind of crazy incident as their best chance to win the driver's championship.