Was Renly plotting to kill Joff and Tommen prior to Robert's Death?

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly doesn't care much about claims. But if he believed that Cersei's children were not Robert's that certainly would have helped his cause. That he didn't really use that story in his campaign implies he didn't believe the story even after he heard about it.

Yeah... OK... that's true, but his campaign never reached Kings Landing...   ...

Fine.  I'll be the first guy on the internet to admit to having my opinion changed by a post on a board. You've made some pretty strong points.

Always a fan of your posts, LV. Thanks for spending some time with me on this one.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Yeah... OK... that's true, but his campaign never reached Kings Landing...   ...

Fine.  I'll be the first guy on the internet to admit to having my opinion changed by a post on a board. You've made some pretty strong points.

Always a fan of your posts, LV. Thanks for spending some time with me on this one.

You're welcome. And you definitely aren't the first person on the internet to change your mind ;-).

[namfoodle]

On 6/17/2021 at 12:28 PM, John Suburbs said:

The thorn in this scenario is why Littlefinger would be urging Ned to support Joffrey, not Renly, when his aim is to crown Renly.

It seems to me that LF is more in league with Illyrio than Lady Olenna. He used Lady O to kill Joffrey (accidentally, BTW, their real target was Tyrion), but Petyr seems to be acting in Illyrio's interests overall. He talked the small council out of hiring a faceless man to kill Dany, prompting Drogo to invade Westeros, just like Illyrio wanted. And he tried to talk Ned out of supporting Stannis and plunging the kingdom into civil war at that moment, just like Illyrio wanted.

It was Littlefinger's preference to be rid of Ned, and for him crowning Renly and Margaery is only a move in the longer game. I don't know how they planned on dealing with Stannis as Robert derailed things by dying ahead of schedule and they had to revise. 

[Minsc]

On 6/16/2021 at 11:34 AM, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

I know he denies knowledge when he's talking to Stannis about his letter, but telling Stannis he knows he's the rightful King in front of Cat would not have been in his best interest at all.

Why?  Renly has no problem openly acknowledging Stannis has a better claim in front of Catelyn.  Even if he acknowledges Stannis is the rightful king doesn't change anything.  He is still planning on battling and defeating Stannis the next day.

[John Suburbs]

On 6/19/2021 at 11:18 AM, namfoodle said:

It was Littlefinger's preference to be rid of Ned, and for him crowning Renly and Margaery is only a move in the longer game. I don't know how they planned on dealing with Stannis as Robert derailed things by dying ahead of schedule and they had to revise. 

No, it was LF's original preference to have Ned support Joffrey so they could both get rid of him at a more opportune time. He only betrayed Ned when Ned insisted on supporting Stannis. I don't see LF supporting Renly and Margaery at any point, but it would have been interesting to see how he pivoted if that came to pass. And I'm not sure who you mean by "they planned on dealing with Stannis", but Petyr would deal with him in the normal way: align forces against him to keep him off the Iron Throne, either politically or militarily.

[Frey family reunion]

On 6/15/2021 at 5:13 PM, Lord Varys said:

The plot as we know it didn't include Mace so much as Renly and Loras. Loras has to write letters to Highgarden urging his father to send Margaery to court. It doesn't look as if Mace was truly part of that plot. He seems to have been reluctant to go along with it, possibly because he didn't believe Robert would truly marry Margaery even if she were able to seduce him.

Mace's notion to have a grandson of his on the Iron Throne seems to have been an idea that only started with him supporting 'King Renly' and his decision to marry Margaery to Renly. It is this desire of Mace's which, after Renly's sudden death, leads to the Margaery-Joffrey marriage and eventually to Margaery's marriage to Tommen.

You also have to keep in mind that Robert was a rather young king - only in his thirties. He could have ruled for another 10-20 years ... at which time Robert's heir, Prince Joffrey, could have been betrothed or married to one of Margaery's cousins. Margaery as Robert's queen could have opened the door for other marriages between Robert's family and the Tyrells.

I tend to agree with this.  I think this was a plot concocted by Renly and Loras, who were mainly hoping on getting rid of Cersei, and making Margaery the stepmother to the princes and princess.  I don't think either Renly or Loras were terribly concerned with any of Margaery's progeny.  They were mainly concerned with ruling through the power of the Queen stepmom.  

Between this and marrying Margaerys to his gay lover, makes you realize even more how little Loras really thought of the welfare of his sister.  (and that's even well before the deicision to marry her to the monstrous Joffrey).  But I guess she was willing to go along with all of this.  I suppose you have to make some sacrifices to be a queen.

[Lord Varys]

14 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I tend to agree with this.  I think this was a plot concocted by Renly and Loras, who were mainly hoping on getting rid of Cersei, and making Margaery the stepmother to the princes and princess.  I don't think either Renly or Loras were terribly concerned with any of Margaery's progeny.  They were mainly concerned with ruling through the power of the Queen stepmom.  

I'd say this entire plan was Renly's brainchild. Loras was barely fifteen years old at the time and when we get to know him somewhat better in later books nothing indicates he is a deep thinker or plotter. He loved Renly and was very devoted to him and, one assumes, Renly used that devotion for his own political agenda. Loras is Mace's favorite son so winning Loras' loyalty means you also gain Mace's ear. Which is how Renly could convince the Tyrells to help make him king.

It is a pity we have no idea why Renly wanted to get rid of Cersei or what the root of their animosity was. Renly was still very young and didn't live at court that long in 298 AC - Loras squired with Renly back at Storm's End and earlier Renly made an extended visit of Dorne - which means there wasn't that much opportunity for Renly and Cersei to butt heads.

I'd also assume that Renly had actually little interest to make Loras' sister the new queen ... it is rather that he heard that Margaery supposedly resembled Lyanna Stark which would have led him to the conclusion that this highborn girl could be able to entice Robert to the degree he would set aside Cersei to be with her.

While Renly was still around he was using Loras and the Tyrells and not the other way around.

14 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Between this and marrying Margaerys to his gay lover, makes you realize even more how little Loras really thought of the welfare of his sister.  But I guess she was willing to go along with all of this.  I suppose you have to make some sacrifices to be a queen.

What we know about Margaery is that she was a willing pawn. Margaery marrying Renly would have been part of the deal Renly made with Mace. As king Renly needed a queen and eventually heirs ... but effectively he was already 'married' to Loras, so this marriage wasn't *really necessary* to cement their alliance. But I guess this is where Mace's desire to have a grandson on the Iron Throne first kicked in.

While Renly was still only Lord of Storm's End he had no desire to marry.

[Angel Eyes]

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd also assume that Renly had actually little interest to make Loras' sister the new queen ... it is rather that he heard that Margaery supposedly resembled Lyanna Stark which would have led him to the conclusion that this highborn girl could be able to entice Robert to the degree he would set aside Cersei to be with her.

 

Whoever was Renly's source on whether or not Margaery and Lyanna looked similar was a pretty poor source, considering that Margaery and Lyanna have little resemblance outside of hair color (hairstyle is different, eye color).

[namfoodle]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, it was LF's original preference to have Ned support Joffrey so they could both get rid of him at a more opportune time. He only betrayed Ned when Ned insisted on supporting Stannis. I don't see LF supporting Renly and Margaery at any point, but it would have been interesting to see how he pivoted if that came to pass. And I'm not sure who you mean by "they planned on dealing with Stannis", but Petyr would deal with him in the normal way: align forces against him to keep him off the Iron Throne, either politically or militarily.

Ohh I think I see what is happening here.

I was responding to a response to the OP question about

“Prior to Robert's death, Renly was supposedly plotting to bring Margaery Tyrell to court in hopes that his brother would set his queen aside for a younger bride. Did he assume the Lannister born heirs would be fine, or did he think they would be set aside? I think that bringing in a new queen would put them in obvious danger as soon as Maid Margaery had a son. Was he not smart enough to see the danger, or did he just not particularly care? He seems to care very little about either despite seemingly not knowing about the incest until Stannis's declaration...”

This is based in history of Plantagenet and Capetian kings having trouble removing their wives, because the married a woman who is in the peer class, like Isabella of France. She’s sister to the powerful King of France. So, you can’t just set her aside without triggering a response.

Then you commented

“It was either a half-baked plan just between Renly and Loras or it was part of a larger scheme to push all the Lannisters aside. If it was the latter, then Lady Olenna would have to green light the whole thing, which she would only do if Margaery was in a position to birth the next heir to the throne.  And the only way for that to happen is for Cersei to be set aside and her children disinherited, which in turn can only be done if she is guilty of some great crime, like fathering her brother's children and passing them off as the king's.”

Which is correct. A plot to set Cersei aside pretty much entails a plot against house Lannister. You cannot set aside the Queen Consort easily so you’d need a pretext of a scandal, such as a marriage never consummated or an affair, or worse, shocking twincest would do it. The result is a shamed queen and disinherited children. Margaery ascends to Queen Consort and produces heirs, Olenna and house Tyrell gain influence over the realm. That is speculation but it follows the pattern of Plantagenet and Capetian history.

So far there is no room in this for support for Joffrey to become king.

I’m thinking it is not going too far out on a limb to imagine that Olenna and Littlefinger know that Tywin would be having none of it. But it seems to me to be even more likely to suppose that Jamie would have acted first to defend is shamed sister. Either way we set up a Lannister rebellion against the crown and paint them as traitors. Tyrell replaces Lannister in influence over the realm.

Because Renly is involved in this plot from the beginning and because he was johnny on the spot in pressing his claim I’m thinking that he knew about the twincest (because he was told, likely, because he figured it out, less likely) and its role in bringing down the Queen Consort and the likely consequences. All of which makes his pretense to the throne something more than theoretical, something he could press. So that is why it looks to me like a plot to set Renly on the throne with Margaery as Queen Consort. Otherwise, why involve Renly at all. If he has no stake in the plot to bring down his brother, why would he cooperate? How could he be more than a liability?

So following the line of thought that the whole thing is a plot to push all the Lannisters aside, Renly did know about the twincest, understood the dangers of using twincest to bring down the Queen Consort, and understood how all this is to his benefit. That is why it is worth his while to cooperate, why Olenna and Littlefinger involved him at all. I’m inclined to believe that Renly did not figure all this out himself, mostly because of his portrayal in the story. He appears to be more of a pawn than a player.

One loose end is that Renly does not become next in succession so there is the question of what Olenna and Littlefinger (remember in the context of this discussion they are the plotters) would do about Stannis. Stannis is not going to be moved to help them bring down his brother and his heirs, even if he would be the obvious beneficiary. I think it is an agreement to indicate that “Petyr would deal with them in the normal way …” which amounts to we do not know the specifics. That is what I hand in mind with “Littlefinger and Olenna … had some sort of plan”. Even though eventually their plans are divergent.

If the plan had simply been to murder Robert and set Joffrey on the throne then it makes no sense to involve Renly or Loras, at least as far as I can see. Without an incentive what would they be other than potential loose tongues?  Rather it seems to me that Robert derailed the plan by dying ahead of schedule. He cannot divorce Cersei and trigger the consequences anticipated if he is dead. It seems to me that at this point Littlefinger is improvising as he can still produce some of the outcomes that he wanted. To his larger game it really does not matter who is king. The Olenna can still move forward with promoting Margaery, reducing House Lannister, and playing her role in his game.  At this point Ned is no longer of use to him. Ned is no longer in a position to help convince Robert of the twincest, no longer of use. Littlefinger does not like him anyway. And if he intends to support Stannis against Joffrey or Renly (or really anyone else in the line of secession) then he is a liability.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

Whoever was Renly's source on whether or not Margaery and Lyanna looked similar was a pretty poor source, considering that Margaery and Lyanna have little resemblance outside of hair color (hairstyle is different, eye color).

Renly wouldn't exactly be an authority on the looks of women considering his own sexual preferences. That said, just because Ned didn't think a picture of Margaery looked like Lyanna doesn't mean they had no resemblance at all. But the point I was trying to make was that Renly's criteria picking Margaery as a potential replacement for Cersei wasn't that she was Loras' sister but that she supposedly looked like Lyanna.

[Angel Eyes]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly wouldn't exactly be an authority on the looks of women considering his own sexual preferences. That said, just because Ned didn't think a picture of Margaery looked like Lyanna doesn't mean they had no resemblance at all. But the point I was trying to make was that Renly's criteria picking Margaery as a potential replacement for Cersei wasn't that she was Loras' sister but that she supposedly looked like Lyanna.

I'm not saying that Renly was an authority on the looks of women, just that whoever said to him that Margaery looked like Lyanna (if Renly didn't draw this conclusion himself) wasn't an authority and Renly took this person at face value.

[Lord Varys]

36 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I'm not saying that Renly was an authority on the looks of women, just that whoever said to him that Margaery looked like Lyanna (if Renly didn't draw this conclusion himself) wasn't an authority and Renly took this person at face value.

I'm not so sure. Lyanna wasn't exactly a well-known figure in the south as far as we know. Whoever told Renly about the resemblance likely only saw her once or twice - say, at Harrenhal - and was then comparing their mental image of her to another young girl fifteen years later.

[Minsc]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is a pity we have no idea why Renly wanted to get rid of Cersei or what the root of their animosity was. Renly was still very young and didn't live at court that long in 298 AC - Loras squired with Renly back at Storm's End and earlier Renly made an extended visit of Dorne - which means there wasn't that much opportunity for Renly and Cersei to butt heads.

Cersei is pretty horrible and clearly not a positive influence on Robert.  I doubt she hid the fact that she believed Joffrey and Tommen should have gotten Dragonstone and Storm's End.

5 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

I'm not saying that Renly was an authority on the looks of women, just that whoever said to him that Margaery looked like Lyanna (if Renly didn't draw this conclusion himself) wasn't an authority and Renly took this person at face value.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't based on Robert's faulty memory when describing her.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Minsc said:

Cersei is pretty horrible and clearly not a positive influence on Robert.  I doubt she hid the fact that she believed Joffrey and Tommen should have gotten Dragonstone and Storm's End.

True enough, but Robert gave Storm's End to Renly years ago ... and as it seems he wasn't fostered at court but at Storm's End. Or at least he didn't permanently live with Robert, although I'd consider it very weird if Renly wasn't Robert's squire when it was time for him to earn his spurs. He was the king's brother, after all.

That said, if Renly spent most of his childhood and youth away from court at Storm's End there would have been few opportunities for Renly to butt heads with Cersei to the point that he wanted to replace her with a new queen. That is a pretty drastic plan, after all.

Vice versa, it is also pretty odd that a Cersei who cuckolded the king was stupid enough to antagonize not just one but both of Robert's brothers. A loyal Renly could have been also loyal to Joffrey and Tommen once Robert was gone, so it is odd that she didn't try to cultivate his friendship ... or failed at that if she tried. We know that Cersei could even lower herself to try to seduce/ally herself with Ned - not to mention all the other men she kept sweet - so it is pretty remarkable that she didn't get along with Renly.

If you look at it then Cersei is truly stupid by betraying Robert the way she did - which caused her to rid herself of him as soon as possible so he would never find out - while at the same time as antagonize Stannis and Renly to the point that it seems likely that both would have rebelled against Joffrey even if the twincest hadn't been a thing - which was the case for Renly and, in my opinion, would also have been the case for Stannis if he hadn't believed in the twincest story.

1 minute ago, Minsc said:

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't based on Robert's faulty memory when describing her.

That certainly could be the case, although this would mean Robert often talked about Lya when spending time with Renly. Could very well be, but it strikes me as more likely that other people told Renly Margaery resembled Lya ... although I'd assume that it was Renly who realized how much Robert had been in love with Lyanna and how much he still longed for her.

And to use that longing to convince Robert to set aside Cersei was actually a pretty good idea. It could have worked.

[Minsc]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Vice versa, it is also pretty odd that a Cersei who cuckolded the king was stupid enough to antagonize not just one but both of Robert's brothers. A loyal Renly could have been also loyal to Joffrey and Tommen once Robert was gone, so it is odd that she didn't try to cultivate his friendship ... or failed at that if she tried. We know that Cersei could even lower herself to try to seduce/ally herself with Ned - not to mention all the other men she kept sweet - so it is pretty remarkable that she didn't get along with Renly.

Cersei is plenty stupid at times.  Furthermore, one of her biggest tools into trying to manipulate/win over people is her seduction skills as one of the most beautiful women in the realm.  Only unfortunately for her that tool doesn't work on either of Robert's brothers.  What with Stannis being sexually repressed and Renly being gay.  Nor if instead of Renly or Stannis that Robert's brothers had been more Edmure and Theon than it is possible that she would have been able to win them over more. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

10 hours ago, namfoodle said:

Because Renly is involved in this plot from the beginning and because he was johnny on the spot in pressing his claim I’m thinking that he knew about the twincest (because he was told, likely, because he figured it out, less likely) and its role in bringing down the Queen Consort and the likely consequences. All of which makes his pretense to the throne something more than theoretical, something he could press. So that is why it looks to me like a plot to set Renly on the throne with Margaery as Queen Consort. Otherwise, why involve Renly at all. If he has no stake in the plot to bring down his brother, why would he cooperate? How could he be more than a liability?

So following the line of thought that the whole thing is a plot to push all the Lannisters aside, Renly did know about the twincest, understood the dangers of using twincest to bring down the Queen Consort, and understood how all this is to his benefit. That is why it is worth his while to cooperate, why Olenna and Littlefinger involved him at all. I’m inclined to believe that Renly did not figure all this out himself, mostly because of his portrayal in the story. He appears to be more of a pawn than a player.

If he had any idea of the twinest, he'd have brought it up to either Ned when he proposed seizing Joff after surmising Ned held robert's will and testament OR when he talked to Catelyn about why he was crowning himself king. For whatever reason Renly knew that Cersei wanted him dead so he had plans to oppose it. Frankly if he had known about the twincest, he'd have been in line with Stannis way earlier instead of not at all.

He tried to save himself and forewent expanded power twice before he fled and crowned himself with the most powerful vassal as an ally.

[namfoodle]

6 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

If he had any idea of the twinest, he'd have brought it up to either Ned when he proposed seizing Joff after surmising Ned held robert's will and testament OR when he talked to Catelyn about why he was crowning himself king. For whatever reason Renly knew that Cersei wanted him dead so he had plans to oppose it. Frankly if he had known about the twincest, he'd have been in line with Stannis way earlier instead of not at all.

He tried to save himself and forewent expanded power twice before he fled and crowned himself with the most powerful vassal as an ally.

By “him” in the context of Cersei wanting him dead you mean Robert?

You may have something there about Renly not mentioning the twincest to Catelyn. Though in the text of the encounter it looks to me that Renly was warming up his main argument justifying breaking the rule of succession. Enjoining to set aside Cersei’s children on the grounds that they are not legitimate successors in the same breath might not be helpful to his case. And news of Stannis interrupted the conversation before Renly could marshal any secondary arguments.

And it is true, on the bridge Renly could have mentioned the twincest to Ned rather than arguing “the man who holds the king holds the kingdom”. Although in the context of the brief discussion I wonder if that information would have been helpful. He is trying to convince Ned to act quickly to secure hostages because he knows that the transfer of power will not be peaceful. His argument to Ned is that taking hostages will ensure a peaceful transfer of power and elevate Ned to Lord Protector. Mentioning the twincest, that the hostages are illegitimate and have no actual value, in the same breath tends to undermine and distract from that argument.

In any case Renly did not have time for the effort of convincing Ned of the twincest. Renly would not expect Ned (or Catelyn) take him at his word. There would be time enough to present the case for twincest to Ned after they were safely away from the city with the security of hostages. When Ned demurs Renly does not waste time pressing is case further. Rather he flees the city to gather his forces for the coming internecine war.

So, yes, I agree that Renly has reason to mention the twincest to both Ned and Catelyn but I’m not certain that he would have led with that information. And in each case the discussion does not last long.

I am skeptical about Renly's family loyalty as well. Renly was ready to kill Stannis despite the rule of succession and despite being his brother. It seems to me, and you may not agree, that Renly considered the rule of succession and family loyalty at some earlier time and rejected both for largely self-interested reasons.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, namfoodle said:

Ohh I think I see what is happening here.

I was responding to a response to the OP question about

“Prior to Robert's death, Renly was supposedly plotting to bring Margaery Tyrell to court in hopes that his brother would set his queen aside for a younger bride. Did he assume the Lannister born heirs would be fine, or did he think they would be set aside? I think that bringing in a new queen would put them in obvious danger as soon as Maid Margaery had a son. Was he not smart enough to see the danger, or did he just not particularly care? He seems to care very little about either despite seemingly not knowing about the incest until Stannis's declaration...”

This is based in history of Plantagenet and Capetian kings having trouble removing their wives, because the married a woman who is in the peer class, like Isabella of France. She’s sister to the powerful King of France. So, you can’t just set her aside without triggering a response.

Then you commented

“It was either a half-baked plan just between Renly and Loras or it was part of a larger scheme to push all the Lannisters aside. If it was the latter, then Lady Olenna would have to green light the whole thing, which she would only do if Margaery was in a position to birth the next heir to the throne.  And the only way for that to happen is for Cersei to be set aside and her children disinherited, which in turn can only be done if she is guilty of some great crime, like fathering her brother's children and passing them off as the king's.”

Which is correct. A plot to set Cersei aside pretty much entails a plot against house Lannister. You cannot set aside the Queen Consort easily so you’d need a pretext of a scandal, such as a marriage never consummated or an affair, or worse, shocking twincest would do it. The result is a shamed queen and disinherited children. Margaery ascends to Queen Consort and produces heirs, Olenna and house Tyrell gain influence over the realm. That is speculation but it follows the pattern of Plantagenet and Capetian history.

So far there is no room in this for support for Joffrey to become king.

I’m thinking it is not going too far out on a limb to imagine that Olenna and Littlefinger know that Tywin would be having none of it. But it seems to me to be even more likely to suppose that Jamie would have acted first to defend is shamed sister. Either way we set up a Lannister rebellion against the crown and paint them as traitors. Tyrell replaces Lannister in influence over the realm.

Because Renly is involved in this plot from the beginning and because he was johnny on the spot in pressing his claim I’m thinking that he knew about the twincest (because he was told, likely, because he figured it out, less likely) and its role in bringing down the Queen Consort and the likely consequences. All of which makes his pretense to the throne something more than theoretical, something he could press. So that is why it looks to me like a plot to set Renly on the throne with Margaery as Queen Consort. Otherwise, why involve Renly at all. If he has no stake in the plot to bring down his brother, why would he cooperate? How could he be more than a liability?

So following the line of thought that the whole thing is a plot to push all the Lannisters aside, Renly did know about the twincest, understood the dangers of using twincest to bring down the Queen Consort, and understood how all this is to his benefit. That is why it is worth his while to cooperate, why Olenna and Littlefinger involved him at all. I’m inclined to believe that Renly did not figure all this out himself, mostly because of his portrayal in the story. He appears to be more of a pawn than a player.

One loose end is that Renly does not become next in succession so there is the question of what Olenna and Littlefinger (remember in the context of this discussion they are the plotters) would do about Stannis. Stannis is not going to be moved to help them bring down his brother and his heirs, even if he would be the obvious beneficiary. I think it is an agreement to indicate that “Petyr would deal with them in the normal way …” which amounts to we do not know the specifics. That is what I hand in mind with “Littlefinger and Olenna … had some sort of plan”. Even though eventually their plans are divergent.

If the plan had simply been to murder Robert and set Joffrey on the throne then it makes no sense to involve Renly or Loras, at least as far as I can see. Without an incentive what would they be other than potential loose tongues?  Rather it seems to me that Robert derailed the plan by dying ahead of schedule. He cannot divorce Cersei and trigger the consequences anticipated if he is dead. It seems to me that at this point Littlefinger is improvising as he can still produce some of the outcomes that he wanted. To his larger game it really does not matter who is king. The Olenna can still move forward with promoting Margaery, reducing House Lannister, and playing her role in his game.  At this point Ned is no longer of use to him. Ned is no longer in a position to help convince Robert of the twincest, no longer of use. Littlefinger does not like him anyway. And if he intends to support Stannis against Joffrey or Renly (or really anyone else in the line of secession) then he is a liability.

 

I'm mostly on board with this, save for a few points.

I don't see why Olenna would want to, or need to, involve Petyr in any of this, nor is there any reason for Petyr to go along with this if asked. Whether Stannis or Renly ascends the throne, Petyr is like out as MoC. The only way he keeps his job is if the crown passes to Joffrey, thus his proposal to Ned to support Joffrey for the time being.

And if this whole thing was Olenna's plan, then the goal would not be to make Renly king, but to make Margaery queen. Renly would go along with it simply to rid the capital of Cersei and her children. King Renly only became the plan after Robert died and Ned refused to move against Cersei right away. And even then, the goal for Olenna was not to make Renly king but Margaery queen. That's been her goal since Margy took her first breath. It's why they named her Margaery, with the backward ae digraph that is so common in Targaryen names and lends her an air of regality. And if you look at Mace's children, you'll see there is a five-year or more gap between Garlan and Loras, who was born in the year following Rhaegar's marriage to Elia, and then Margaery a year after that -- perfect matches for the new royal princes and princesses that were bound to arrive shortly. That was also a facet of medieval life: the king or crown prince would marry, and there would be a sudden baby boom among the nobility.

The other thing is maybe they would expect Jaime to defend his sister against these accusation, but I'm not so sure he would. He doesn't want power and influence like Cersei does. He just wants her, alone, somewhere. He doesn't even care if they lose Casterly Rock or all their titles and everything else. All he needs is her and her sword. So when confronted with these accusations, he might very well just admit the whole thing, then she and him and their children are exiled together and he gets everything he wants.

[Trigger Warning]

I've argued about Renly not knowing about the twincest tonnes and am honestly pretty tired of it but really the idea that Renly knew about it and never once brought it up even when trying to literally claim the throne is asinine. Ultimately GRRM hasn't written one bit of text with Renly acknowledging it or anyone acknowledging that he knows. 

However what we do have is this little musing of Renly's that makes zero sense if he already knew. 

“Do I?” Renly shrugged. “So be it. Stannis was never the most cherished of brothers, I confess. Do you suppose this tale of his is true? If Joffrey is the Kingslayer’s get—” “—your brother is the lawful heir.” “While he lives,” Renly admitted

The only way this makes sense with Renly knowing is that he's putting on an act for Cat which is frankly ridiculous, he's literally keeping her captive so she can watch him annihilate Stannis as a threat to her and Robb, he has nothing to gain by doing this he doesn't care what she thinks. It's taking a human moment of introspection and turning it into a conspiracy. 
 

[Ran]

32 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

I've argued about Renly not knowing about the twincest tonnes and am honestly pretty tired of it 

Same. In that vein, though, a previous thread where I and others discussed why the evidence does not support the assertion that Renly knew.