williamjm Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 56 minutes ago, Padraig said: I hope you are right. It took weeks for the UK to end up where it is right now also and it has even higher rates of vaccination. It would be nice if there was a formula that didn't involve a lockdown. I imagine such countries will avoid the fatality rates seen previously at least. There was some modelling published today estimating what the UK numbers might have been like without vaccines. They thought the current rate would be about 300000 cases and 800 deaths per day in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 6 hours ago, Zorral said: You are quite, quite, quite mistaken, at best, in your statements of what tRump and Co. said and did, which was always to say it was nothing more than a bad cold, maybe -- don't wear masks or do anything at all to keep safety protocols, and sure as hell didn't practice any safety themselves in private and certainly not on public -- see all the video of people inside, clustered together, with no masking or distance. He admitted in private it was dangerous early on, and then did everything to tell his followers it wasn't, because all the numbers of sick and hospitalized and dead made him look bad, so they did their best to cover up numbers and deny, deny, deny. This is on record, many, many, many records. The books are being published right now. The only thing he tried to do via covid was make a profit out of it. And tell lies as to remedies like bleach that kill people. In the very beginning their were cackles from the GOP establishment about how it was only a problem in the filthy blue state cities. It was all code for "Who cares if a bunch of urban voters are getting sick." That's the piss poor calculus and lack of leadership we had from the beginning from the crime family that occupied our White House. No fate can be too terrible for this horrible, horrible man who literally sought to do nothing as his citizens faced mortal danger. I will never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 7 hours ago, Zorral said: You are quite, quite, quite mistaken, at best, in your statements of what tRump and Co. said and did, which was always to say it was nothing more than a bad cold, maybe -- don't wear masks or do anything at all to keep safety protocols, and sure as hell didn't practice any safety themselves in private and certainly not on public -- see all the video of people inside, clustered together, with no masking or distance. He admitted in private it was dangerous early on, and then did everything to tell his followers it wasn't, because all the numbers of sick and hospitalized and dead made him look bad, so they did their best to cover up numbers and deny, deny, deny. This is on record, many, many, many records. The books are being published right now. The only thing he tried to do via covid was make a profit out of it. And tell lies as to remedies like bleach that kill people. You literally disagreed with him while agreeing with him at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 13 hours ago, williamjm said: Has anyone seen any detail about this Israeli study beyond this headline which seems to be all the news article I've seen mention about it? I haven't seen any information on the confidence intervals in the study or how large it was and without those it's difficult to really assess how to weigh its conclusion against the different conclusions on efficacy seen in the English and Canadian studies which had less of a reduction in efficacy. 13 hours ago, Padraig said: This CNN article has the following. Sounds like we should be cautious regarding that Israeli info for now. Especially as there is different data available from Canada and the UK (more consistent with each other). There is also the Singapore study that puts the efficacy at 69% https://sg.news.yahoo.com/covid-vaccination-singapore-effective-delta-variant-ong-ye-kung-123900712.html (ETA: according to other sources this is for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines) What is the origin of these differences? Well, assuming that everyone is doing correctly their job, It might well be that the UK scheme of separating doses by a larger span of time (afaik Canada is doing the same) is paying off. We also need to consider that in average the Israeli population was vaccinated earlier than those in Canada and UK. If this is the case, having a high level of circulating antibodies helps a lot against infection. More importantly however. The vaccines are protecting against hospitalization and death still at a high efficacy, which should be the primary goal. The question whether they are able to provide "herd immunity" should be secondary and in my opinion misplaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 The local news changed from "a 4th wave is unlikely" to "a 4th wave in the fall is likely" to "UK numbers are likely this month" in the span of 24 hours... We are far behind the UK on the vaccine side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 On 7/6/2021 at 6:32 PM, Rippounet said: This is a topic of interest to me, as someone who experienced Covid symptoms for about three months. And I would gladly put it on general stress/anxiety, but around the end of these three months I had an odd episode when I couldn't get out of bed for 24h, something which only happened to me twice in my entire life. I'm familiar with stress/anxiety and it does not do that to me. I guess "Long Covid" can be: 1) Psychosomatic effects of stress/anxiety. Also, lack of exercise and lack of social contact (because of the lockdowns). 2) An actual "long Covid," i.e. your immune system taking longer to eliminate the disease than average for some reason. The doctor I saw initially said that 6 to 8 weeks was absolutely not uncommon, and on the "Long Covid" group that I briefly belonged to, three months was in fact said to be the "average" length for "Long Covid." 3) Sequelae of Covid, especially for people who were hospitalized and required breathing assistance. You know? We were discussing with @Chataya de Fleury about the similarities of Long-Covid with mononucleosis and it's turning out that there might be a link. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-06-covid-symptoms-epstein-barr-virus-reactivation.html it might be not the only retrovirus that get activated during the infection https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-514541/v1 and some treatments might also activate the feared Kaposi's sarcoma virus https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.02.324228v1 There are also accounts of shingles and Bell's palsy associated to both disease and vaccine. Both are caused by Herpes virus. ETA: This in addition to organ damage caused by the disease or invasive procedures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9769283/Children-face-one-500-000-risk-dying-Covid-amid-row-kids-vaccinated.html Just 25 children ( under 18s)have died in England from Covid in total, over 75% of which had pre existing chronic conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filippa Eilhart Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 I thought the argument for vaccinating children was mainly to stop the spread of the virus (which seems pretty unrealistic otherwise), and not about children dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 10 hours ago, Zorral said: You are quite, quite, quite mistaken, at best, in your statements of what tRump and Co. said and did, which was always to say it was nothing more than a bad cold, maybe -- don't wear masks or do anything at all to keep safety protocols, and sure as hell didn't practice any safety themselves in private and certainly not on public -- see all the video of people inside, clustered together, with no masking or distance. He admitted in private it was dangerous early on, and then did everything to tell his followers it wasn't, because all the numbers of sick and hospitalized and dead made him look bad, so they did their best to cover up numbers and deny, deny, deny. This is on record, many, many, many records. The books are being published right now. The only thing he tried to do via covid was make a profit out of it. And tell lies as to remedies like bleach that kill people. There is a difference between downplaying and denial. You might use that well worn phrase distinction without a difference and you may be right, but you can't blame them for something they didn't in fact do. The Trump admin tried having a 3-way with this thing, they wanted to have the cake, eat it and also do some kinky stuff. On the one hand they wanted to make out like it isn't all that bad because they didn't want to have to shut down the economy. On the other hand they wanted to claim they were leading the charge on urgent development of vaccine and deployment of effective therapies. On whatever third appendage you care to name they wanted to use it to beat up on China. But they never said it's not a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said: I thought the argument for vaccinating children was mainly to stop the spread of the virus (which seems pretty unrealistic otherwise), and not about children dying. It's not that all clear. First, it might well be that vaccinating adults (and adolescents) might protect the children from infection. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01549-z Second. Any pharmaceutical intervention must weight the risks and benefits on that particular population. Given the low risk that kids face and uncertainty about the safety of the intervention, it isn't clear that it's ethically justifiable. In Germany the vaccine commission (STIKO) is holding against heavy political pressure and not recommending for now the vaccine in adolescents for these reasons. Sure, new variants change the calculation, but the argument go in both ways as herd immunity seem to be out of the reach with high infectious variants with such immune escape (if the numbers we're seen are correct), so why bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said: I thought the argument for vaccinating children was mainly to stop the spread of the virus (which seems pretty unrealistic otherwise), and not about children dying. Indeed and also because of some concerns about long covid. There have been a surprisingly high number of infants deaths at least in Brazil but that is something that might now happen in most countries. I never found much out about that but I have not looked too deeply because that stuff is just too depressing to be honest. If health care for children comes close to collapsing there will be a hardcore lockdown I believe at least in countries like Austria or Luxemburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: Well, assuming that everyone is doing correctly their job, It might well be that the UK scheme of separating doses by a larger span of time (afaik Canada is doing the same) is paying off. That's a very interesting idea. Will be interesting to see data from more countries. I think a lot of countries had a large gap for AZ doses but not so much for Pfizer (definitely not here), and its too late to have a gap now since you want people double dosed asap. So troubling really. 2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: It's not that all clear. First, it might well be that vaccinating adults (and adolescents) might protect the children from infection. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01549-z I think that article is a little out of date already, since Israel is blaming an increase in cases there on delta and unvaccinated kids. I do agree with your argument that it isn't a simple decision though. 2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: Sure, new variants change the calculation, but the argument go in both ways as herd immunity seem to be out of the reach with high infectious variants with such immune escape (if the numbers we're seen are correct), so why bother? At the same time. Even if herd immunity is a pipe dream, the more people that are vaccinated the better (from purely a spreadibility point of view)? Keep R down. So I can still see an argument for vaccinating kids. And maybe cutting off at 12 is a good compromise (not that under 12's is approved yet by anyone). 5 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said: We are far behind the UK on the vaccine side of things. I'm less worried about this metric. Sure, there is still a gap but Austria has 40% of its total population fully vaccinated and 55% partly vaccinated. And still vaccinating at a decent pace. Although, I did look at the ECDC website, and it says that only 80% of 70-79 year olds are vaccinated with at least 1 dose, which isn't great. I presume that is unwillingness rather than speed of vaccinating? Ireland is close enough to 100% for all those over 60. When you look at the case numbers now in Europe, they really are horrible. Netherlands had a 274% increase in 1 week! Spain had a 115% increase. Denmark 90%. Thanks football. Norway is the only country in Western Europe that is still declining. I really hope we avoid a complete explosion like that. We are "relatively" moderate at +24%. Which is very close to what the US is doing (+25%) over the last week. Edited to add: And Pfizer/Biontech is going to seek approval to offer a 3rd dose of its vaccine. Saying that results in Israel indicate a fall off in efficiacy. Not so much in how effective it is against deaths/hospitalisations but against catching the disease. Interesting argument. Especially given the continued shortage of vaccines in most of the (poorer) world. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/pfizer-to-seek-us-authorisation-for-a-third-dose-of-its-covid-19-vaccine-1.4615374 Quote "While protection against severe disease remained high across the full six months, a decline in efficacy against symptomatic disease over time and the continued emergence of variants are expected," a statement from the two companies said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Padraig said: I'm less worried about this metric. Sure, there is still a gap but Austria has 40% of its total population fully vaccinated and 55% partly vaccinated. And still vaccinating at a decent pace. Although, I did look at the ECDC website, and it says that only 80% of 70-79 year olds are vaccinated with at least 1 dose, which isn't great. I presume that is unwillingness rather than speed of vaccinating? Ireland is close enough to 100% for all those over 60. The younger the less willing people seem in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: There is also the Singapore study that puts the efficacy at 69% Thank you for pointing this one out as well, I was only aware of the Israeli results previously. 4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: about the similarities of Long-Covid with mononucleosis and it's turning out that there might be a link. I had mono my Senior year of HS, wondering if this is a good thing or a bad thing, immunity wise anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said: I had mono my Senior year of HS, wondering if this is a good thing or a bad thing, immunity wise anyways? No idea really. I was going down the rabbit hole and apparently a large fraction of the humans have antibodies against that particular herpes virus. The thing with those retroviruses (in my poor understanding) is they get (retro)-integrated into your genome, so you are never really out of the woods. They can reactivated again in particular conditions which is seems what it's happening with the long-covid syndrome. And yes, the symptoms, the fatigue, depression and associated BS can last months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 I am in line with my brother to get our second Pfizer shots! The guy who gave my brother his shot is a doctor at a local hospital. He said he got two Pfizer shots as well, but now he’s wondering if he shouldn’t have mixed shots, since there is a good argument it may give broader protection! I’ve been saying to my brother for some time now that after all our hunting for a Pfizer shot, wouldn’t it be funny if Pfizer + Moderna worked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filippa Eilhart Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 good luck Bird! luxembourg’s increase (of over 600% ) is linked with the opening of nightclubs and our national holiday on the 23rd of June. It’s usually one huge street party, this year people obviously decided that’s still on. We are however vaccinating the 12-17’s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 5 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said: I thought the argument for vaccinating children was mainly to stop the spread of the virus (which seems pretty unrealistic otherwise), and not about children dying. Its also about kids getting long term problems. The idea that we should be just fine with millions of people disabled because they aren't killed is very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoannaL Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Padraig said: When you look at the case numbers now in Europe, they really are horrible. Netherlands had a 274% increase in 1 week! Spain had a 115% increase. Denmark 90%. Thanks football. Norway is the only country in Western Europe that is still declining. I really hope we avoid a complete explosion like that. We are "relatively" moderate at +24%. Which is very close to what the US is doing (+25%) over the last week. We had our minimum of infections just last week with 4,9 /100.000. Now its at 5,4 (+9 %) which is still very, very good. Delta is at 66%. We should have 50% fullly vaccinated (like what the UK has now) in about three weeks. That means a lot of people are quite confident that the summer will be fine, and the problems will not start before autumn. We'll see. I fear that Johnson- in his overeagerness to open hurridly- will botch it, and here this will be an argument then to go back into full lockdown, even if we are much more cautious in the moment than the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveSumm Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 There’s some hope that the UK is decelerating its growth, these are the 7 day average increases on the same day the week before: Sun 67% increase on previous Sun Mon 53% Tue 49% Wed 43% Thu 35% Today 31% We have that and schools soon to break up on one end of the scales, the football and the lifting of restrictions on the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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