Covid-19 #34 - Alpha, Delta, It’s All Greek to Me!

[The Anti-Targ]

14 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Thanks. Do people still believe the virus is going away? I find it very strange people are living with that mindset, it would explain a lot of behaviour.
 

I think since variants became a thing its become quite clear we will need to be doing regular refresher jabs, especially for the most vulnerable to keep on top of any new strains. That isn't a particularly new thing, happens with flu already.

There is currently an important distinction between the annual 'flu vaccination scenario and COVID-19. With 'flu the boffins do a very good job at predicting what the pandemic strain is going to be each year and the vaccine rolls out ahead of the annual pandemic getting started (it is probably good for people to understand that we do have a pandemic every year, but we have figured out how to manage it reasonably well, still kills people though). With COVID-19, so far, vaccine is lagging variants, so we have variants ripping through populations and a targeted vaccine is still not available. It would be nice to hope that we can get to a 'flu scenario where the next variant is reliably predicted ahead of time and the vaccine rolls out before it starts hitting the population in a meaningful way.

12 hours ago, Heartofice said:

12 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Giving up on animal agriculture and eating meat might improve the odds though. 

*runs and hides*

Also kill all pets. 
 

*runs and hides*

Given there seems to be no evidence that the animals most of us like to eat can become infected let alone transmit the virus, but there are plenty of scientific papers showing some of the animals we like keeping as pets can become infected. Your suggestion certainly seems like the more effective solution, if it could possibly be implemented.

[Impmk2]

The comparisons with the flu vaccine aren't great tbh. Flu vaccines largely dealing with differing subtypes of flu caused by antigenic shift in the virus - the reassortment of viral surface proteins. That's because the flu is a segmented RNA virus. It can swap sections of its surface antigen when it comes into contact with a different strain.

SARS-CoV-2 doesn't do this. You're dealing with point mutations on the single spike protein (ie antigenic drift). Plus side there is that the spike protein appears far more immunogenic than the flu surface antigen, and should shift less dramatically. So on paper at least looks easier to vaccinate against. 

[Clueless Northman]

Flu predictability isn't a given, it can fail from time to time. For instance, since there has barely been any flu around for more than a year, it's extremely tricky to guess which straings should be included in the next vaccine.

[The Anti-Targ]

12 hours ago, Padraig said:

The only clear thing in my mind is how complicated this is.

Control measures for kids is pretty much close schools right?  That has definitely been necessary at times but it comes with a high price.

Although, Pfizer/Moderna are both hoping to get approval to vaccinate 5-12 year olds in the next couple of months.  I'm sure what the CDC is reporting helps that argument though.

I can't imagine the US will ever put restrictions back, unless a more deadly version of COVID-19 emerges.  So what happens there over the next few months will be a huge scientific experiment.  Half the population is vaccinated, half not.  See what happens.  The UK is another experiment but at least vaccination has been far more successful.  Scotland is mandating masks still though, so we'll see does that make a significant difference.

But I would say the vaccines remain strong against the Delta.  The Israeli study apparently suggests that people need boosters earlier than hoped for, in order to reduce the likelihood of getting COVID.  (But that study isn't widely accepted yet).  And the UK was already planning a booster campaign for the over 50's I think?  I'm sure other countries are too, just less definitive about it.

And at least there has been some progress in cutting the death rate from case rate.  But we'll see in the coming months is it a big enough cut.  That's why the surge in cases in Africa is so depressing.

I still think there has been too much handwringing over the effect on kids of closing schools. Unfortunately any negative effects will be greatest in lower socio-economic children because of lack of access to online education. But that is itself a solvable problem. It should not be used as an excuse to drop public health measures that would be very beneficial at a given stage of the pandemic. Kids can and will recover.

I had a bit of a painful conversation with a colleague today. Demanding evidence for significant asymptomatic spread. Complaining that a mask mandate is bad for kids because they will miss out on important non-verbal communication in their early years. Demanding evidence for masks being in any way effective at limiting the spread of a respiratory virus. Complaining that in the UK the govt is mandating rest home workers get vaccinated. I am against a population-wide mandate for vaccination, but I am fully in favour of mandatory vaccination in higher risk occupations, and I think rest home work is one of those workplaces that need people to be vaccinated. Same as I am on board with all of our border workforce being made to be vaccinated, or find another job.

[The Anti-Targ]

Not a surprise, but interesting nonetheless, a nurse in Sydney has tested positive for coronavirus despite being fully vaccinated (article doesn't say how long since their second shot, so I assume when they say fully they mean at least 1 week since the second shot). The article also says she was diligent in wearing all required PPE. Though we also know that PPE isn't 100% protective, just like the vaccine doesn't make everyopne 100% immune.

[lessthanluke]

8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Kids can and will recover.

 

How do you know?

[Padraig]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I still think there has been too much handwringing over the effect on kids of closing schools. Unfortunately any negative effects will be greatest in lower socio-economic children because of lack of access to online education. But that is itself a solvable problem. It should not be used as an excuse to drop public health measures that would be very beneficial at a given stage of the pandemic. Kids can and will recover.

Sounds like you are speaking from a country with a very good educational system.  I'm not sure that holds in most places.  I'm sure there will be research on this area but its the kind of thing we'll only truly understand a few years down the line.  And then, it will be too late to do much. 

I don't have an issue with closing schools during the pandemic.  When schools re-opened here, cases did go up.  But we didn't rush to open other things, so it was manageable.

You also sound too negative regarding vaccines.  Even if the recent Israeli study on Pfizer is accurate, the effectiveness of Pfizer is still better than most flu vaccines.  They are still a huge positive.

I have been curious about breakthrough cases though.  This study is a little out of date because it doesn't deal with Delta but it gives an idea of who is exposed.

Quote

 

From a total of 152 patients included in the study, poor outcome was observed in 38 of them and mortality rate reached 22%. The clinical profile of these individuals resembled other COVID-19 hospitalized patients, which means they were primarily older men with a plethora of comorbidities associated with COVID-19 severity.

Nonetheless, comorbidities were more frequent in patients with vaccine breakthrough infections in comparison to a large case series on unvaccinated hospitalized patients – including hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, chronic kidney diseases, chronic lung diseases, dementia and cancer. Moreover, 40% of the patients were immunocompromised.

 

Probably not a huge surprise.  But definitely neccessary for clarity.

[lessthanluke]

Anyone else still feel like shit 4 to 5 weeks after first shot of Moderna? Really not looking forward to the second jab hah.

[Luzifer's right hand]

They seem to have started recommending no excercise for a few days after an mRNA vaccine around here especially for young men and when I googled it some places like Singapore seem to recommend a week without it. 

None of the young guys I know followed that recommendation and it is also pretty new around here. :/ The kind of mild myocarditis that has no real accute symptoms seems to be the most risky for fit guys as they do not rest if that is the case. Still vastly more unlikely than getting myocarditis from covid-19 from what I gathered but still not uplifting news. 

Maybe I'm a bit too sensitive because I got a coworker who really fucked his heart because he did not rest when having a mild virus infection years ago and he remembers no heart relates symptoms until after the damage was done. Sneaky stuff.

 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

35 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

Anyone else still feel like shit 4 to 5 weeks after first shot of Moderna? Really not looking forward to the second jab hah.

Nope. Also had Moderna. I was more annoyed that I had left my book at home, and they wanted to monitor me for 30 mins after the shot. Don't get me wrong, the folks there were great, offering water and free candy, but it was still kinda annoying to sit there for 30 mins without anything to do or read.

Anyway, going back to your Moderna question. I had zero side effects after the first shot, well, had mild headache the next day. But I blamed that on the weather. Second shot is supposedly the one with the heavy side effects. Friend's wife fell sick for a week after her second shot of Moderna.

[Luzifer's right hand]

37 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

Anyone else still feel like shit 4 to 5 weeks after first shot of Moderna? Really not looking forward to the second jab hah.

Just asked some co-workers who got it(the company vaccine program uses it but I manged to get a Pfizer shot earlier myself). 

All guys in the 30-40 age range. They did report a bit more intense side effects than I experienced with fever in all cases at least for a day or two. None of them rested after for a few days after the shot unlike me though(I was really tired for 2 days something the Moderna guys did not experience and I'm also a lazy guy). None of them had lasting symptoms afaik(they only got the 2nd shot today and yesterday though).

[lessthanluke]

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Just asked some co-workers who got it(the company vaccine program uses it but I manged to get a Pfizer shot earlier myself). 

All guys in the 30-40 age range. They did report a bit more intense side effects than I experienced with fever in all cases at least for a day or two. None of them rested after for a few days after the shot unlike me though(I was really tired for 2 days something the Moderna guys did not experience and I'm also a lazy guy). None of them had lasting symptoms afaik(they only got the 2nd shot today and yesterday though).

I was fine immediately after it for a few days then started feeling like shit 

 

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Nope. Also had Moderna. I was more annoyed that I had left my book at home, and they wanted to monitor me for 30 mins after the shot. Don't get me wrong, the folks there were great, offering water and free candy, but it was still kinda annoying to sit there for 30 mins without anything to do or read.

Anyway, going back to your Moderna question. I had zero side effects after the first shot, well, had mild headache the next day. But I blamed that on the weather. Second shot is supposedly the one with the heavy side effects. Friend's wife fell sick for a week after her second shot of Moderna.

I remembered my book thankfully hah. Had it about 5 weeks ago. Lethargy is pretty bad, having to nap midday most days, training has suffered. Also got like a rash/skin infection type thing that's not going away.

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

How do you know?

That's a very good question. We know, because there are loads of examples of kids suffering a helluva lot more than missing several months of school (refugees who start out 3-4 or more years behind who learn a totally new language and still catch up to be able to go to university before they are 20, kids who have had chronic illnesses and who have missed months of school and been sick the whole time, but still do well in their education, and often times better people for their experience) and they still grow up to become educated and productive members of society. What they do need is the right support around them, which admittedly is far from guaranteed in a lot of places.

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

Sounds like you are speaking from a country with a very good educational system.  I'm not sure that holds in most places.  I'm sure there will be research on this area but its the kind of thing we'll only truly understand a few years down the line.  And then, it will be too late to do much. 

I don't have an issue with closing schools during the pandemic.  When schools re-opened here, cases did go up.  But we didn't rush to open other things, so it was manageable.

You also sound too negative regarding vaccines.  Even if the recent Israeli study on Pfizer is accurate, the effectiveness of Pfizer is still better than most flu vaccines.  They are still a huge positive.

I have been curious about breakthrough cases though.  This study is a little out of date because it doesn't deal with Delta but it gives an idea of who is exposed.

Our school system is pretty reasonable, but it still leaves a lot of kids behind, especially Maori. But arguably closing schools for a prolonged period where access to education is pretty shit except for the wealthy has less of an effect, since most kids were getting a rubbish education anyway, and the wealthy kids would just be having private tutoring during any lockdown. When the effectiveness of a year's education is crap, it doesn't take much to catch up, is my guess. Perhaps of some interest, is that my sister-in-law's honours thesis was looking at the various factors influencing educational achievement, she found the most important factor is the parent's commitment to their children's education. A lockdown is not going to change that. So committed parents will ensure their children's education continues. Slack parents are dooming their children to some degree of underachievement with or without a lockdown.

What we did do well is manage the pandemic so that there was never any need to make a choice between keeping a lid on the pandemic or having kids get back to normal schooling as quickly as possible. I think there was only a nation-wide closure of schools for about 4 weeks last year, and then some short periods of school closures in Auckland a couple of times lat last year and early this year when there was limited numbers of cases in the community there. All in all I think maybe a max of 6 weeks out of school.

I don't know why you think I'm negative about vaccines. They are massively important in getting this disease to a state where it no longer causes significant illness or death. What I am negative about is that it looks like the anti-vaxx (in general) and anti-COVID-vaxx in particular propaganda has seemed to work well enough that few countries will get to herd immunity through vaccination and there will need to be a lot more natural infection and thus severe illness, death and long COVID before this thing runs its course. It's a pretty negative and pessimistic view of humanity, not of the vaccine.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

Anyone else still feel like shit 4 to 5 weeks after first shot of Moderna? Really not looking forward to the second jab hah.

That doesn't sound good. I suggest you report it to your doctor as a side effect. Any negative effect from the vaccine lasting more than a couple of days, maybe up to a week at max, is a side effect that should be reported. Every instance of a negative reaction to any drug should be reported so that there is the best possible data gathered on side effects.

Your doctor may also want to be cautious about whether you get the second jab and might decide that it is less of a risk for you just to have the single hit. Perhaps get you to take an antibody test to see if you've mounted a decent immune response from just the one dose. After all (though I am not an immunologist so I am kind of speculating) if you feel like shit from a vaccine it's probably because your immune system is fighting it like the real thing, but still that shouldn't last 5 weeks. Would hate to think you are having a long COVID response to the vaccine.

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

I was fine immediately after it for a few days then started feeling like shit 

 

I remembered my book thankfully hah. Had it about 5 weeks ago. Lethargy is pretty bad, having to nap midday most days, training has suffered. Also got like a rash/skin infection type thing that's not going away.

That sucks. 

Might be a really uncommon side effect. Might be something else though. You should get things checked out. You might have catched covid-19 though as the numbers are really increasing in the UK and one shot does not protect that well against Delta. Single shots offer some protection but not enough (I actually know someone who died of Alpha between Moderna shots but that was with an 28 day interval and they got infected a week after the first shot). 

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

I was fine immediately after it for a few days then started feeling like shit 

I remembered my book thankfully hah. Had it about 5 weeks ago. Lethargy is pretty bad, having to nap midday most days, training has suffered. Also got like a rash/skin infection type thing that's not going away.

Yikes.  I would agree with what Anti-Targ said.  Get it checked out before your second dose.

The most worrisome side-effect i've heard regarding Pfizer/Moderna is Myocarditis and Pericarditis but even if it isn't anything like that, there could always be some other very rare side-effect that you are experiencing.

[Maithanet]

I would also see a doctor, but I would not assume that is from the shot.  At the very least, that sound pretty dissimilar from either the typical or the more rare side effects of the Moderna shot. 

Good luck. 

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't know why you think I'm negative about vaccines. 

Negative in how effective they are.  For example, comparing them to the flu vaccine, which is significantly less effective than the COVID one.  Suggesting that the COVID vaccines are lagging the variants, when they are still very effective against those variants etc.

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

That's a very good question. We know, because there are loads of examples of kids suffering a helluva lot more than missing several months of school (refugees who start out 3-4 or more years behind who learn a totally new language and still catch up to be able to go to university before they are 20, kids who have had chronic illnesses and who have missed months of school and been sick the whole time, but still do well in their education, and often times better people for their experience) and they still grow up to become educated and productive members of society. What they do need is the right support around them, which admittedly is far from guaranteed in a lot of places.

Our school system is pretty reasonable, but it still leaves a lot of kids behind, especially Maori. But arguably closing schools for a prolonged period where access to education is pretty shit except for the wealthy has less of an effect, since most kids were getting a rubbish education anyway, and the wealthy kids would just be having private tutoring during any lockdown. When the effectiveness of a year's education is crap, it doesn't take much to catch up, is my guess. Perhaps of some interest, is that my sister-in-law's honours thesis was looking at the various factors influencing educational achievement, she found the most important factor is the parent's commitment to their children's education. A lockdown is not going to change that. So committed parents will ensure their children's education continues. Slack parents are dooming their children to some degree of underachievement with or without a lockdown.

I'd be suspicious of a lot of that.  "Exceptionalism" isn't a particularly robust argument.  Sure, there are examples of kids who do great after missing school.  But, i'd imagine, there is a focus on those kids because of how exceptional their life's circumstances have been.  But in this case, all kids have been affected.  It is going to be hard to focus on Z, who is struggling to catch up, because loads of kids are going to be struggling to some degree. 

I can buy into the argument that parent's commitment makes a big difference but a lockdown is definitely going to make that worse also.  Since the parents are even more important in a remote schooling environment.

I'm certainly not an expert in this area but I've seen studies suggesting that kids have lost out.  Now maybe the media is amplifying the negative stories, which is possible, but I think the governments would be pushing back on that if it wasn't an issue.

If schools have to be closed, fine.  But people are often too inclined to waive off complicating factors.  And this is definitely a messy one.

[lessthanluke]

Thanks guys. I'll try and get it checked out but not holding out much hope of getting in with my GP. Been pretty impossible since the Pandemic started.

[JoannaL]

On 7/14/2021 at 7:35 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

A lot of countries only care about hospitalisation and deaths and it's still true that kids get sever COVID at a much lower rate. And a lot of govts then think that kids getting COVID is just fine, not realising that even if you are a largely unaffected host making it easier to spread the disease among friends and family is still not a good thing for the overall hospitalisation and death situation. But it is also easy to politically soundbite your way through most of the public by just saying the first bit: kids don't suffer much, so it's all fine we don't need to put control measures in place to deal with that population.

There was quite a lot about kids and long covid  in nature in the last week:

News: Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01897-w

and more interesting an editorial News about different long covid studies (Long COVID and kids: scientists race to find answers: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01935-7

the short summary is: it is complicated.

There was also  mentioned  this preprint

medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.11.21257037 (2021).

which studied long covid in children and found that while the children are more affected in a lot of ways than before the pandemic (fatigue, headache, insomnia and so on), there was no difference between children who had had Covid and who didnt. Meaning: Long Covid in children may be in most cases rather long-pandemic trauma.

from the editorial "Long-COVID symptoms include fatigue, headache, difficulty concentrating and insomnia. He says that other pandemic-related phenomena, such as school closures and the trauma of seeing family members sick or dying from COVID-19 could result in those symptoms too, and artificially inflate long-COVID estimates. “You need a control group to tease out what is truly infection-related,” he says.

He and his colleagues have been taking blood samples from secondary-school children in Dresden since May 2020 to track rates of infection. In March and April this year, surveys were taken from more than 1,500 children — nearly 200 of whom had antibodies indicating previous SARS-CoV-2 infection — to see how many reported long COVID. In May, Armann’s group reported in a preprint that it found no difference in rates of symptoms reported by the two groups3. “

So that means also that the pandemic is a very severe event for our children causing multiple psychological disorders. To get them to experience a "normal " life must be of outmost importance to us. This means also  no lockdown and school closures for children if at all possible because though that  may help against covid infections it causes other damages, and getting bad school grades are really not the most severe consequences..