Covid-19 #34 - Alpha, Delta, It’s All Greek to Me!

[BigFatCoward]

32 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

Thanks guys. I'll try and get it checked out but not holding out much hope of getting in with my GP. Been pretty impossible since the Pandemic started.

Sometimes you just have to lie about how ill you are. 

[JoannaL]

19 hours ago, L'oiseau français said:

Our vaccination rate has really slowed down, it’s a matter of getting the reluctant ones out now. In a week we should hit 70% of the country with one dose and 55% fully vaccinated, maybe 60% by month end. So 80% of those 12+ vaccinated and about close to 70% fully vaccinated.

Well, no reason to complain, Bird, Canadas numbers are excellent , surpassing all bigger western nations, and I doubt that a lot of the others will get that far.

[JoannaL]

6 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

Anyone else still feel like shit 4 to 5 weeks after first shot of Moderna? Really not looking forward to the second jab hah.

first moderna shot, 3 days pain in the arm , and feeling like I could not concentrate for 3-4 days .

second moderna shot, 3 days pain in the arm, chills and fever for one night, and feeling tired ever since (two weeks).

[RhaenysBee]

The internet’s cutest ad of the past few years: HOLIDAY SEASON! Instead of $65, get a PCR now for $50 only! 

where is this world heading? Where? 

[RhaenysBee]

#moderna 

36 hours of fever, chills & crippling body ache, 3 days of exhaustion and uselessness, 4 days of arm ache after both shots. I was more “ill” after the vaccine than with actual covid. No other side effects since, but insane antibody levels after first shot, so I guess it was worth it after all. 
 

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Indonesia, which has quietly grew to the 4th most populated country on the planet, is suffering the most horrific spike in cases of anywhere right now. It's Daily New Cases graph looks like a moonshot.

Here in the U.S. we've crept back to over 35,000 Daily Cases and are trending ever higher, especially right across our southern border.

There's a slow moving train wreck afoot.

[Padraig]

I read an article recently about how a quarter dose of Moderna still rouses a big immune response.  It is 100mg v 60mg for Pfizer (IIRC).  Maybe it is too large given some of the side-effects mentioned.

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Indonesia, which has quietly grew to the 4th most populated country on the planet, is suffering the most horrific spike in cases of anywhere right now. It's Daily New Cases graph looks like a moonshot.

Here in the U.S. we've crept back to over 35,000 Daily Cases and are trending ever higher, especially right across our southern border.

There's a slow moving train wreck afoot.

Yes.  Its really bad.  The mortality rate in a country like Namibia is shocking.  Where that rate will go in vaccinated countries is the other question.  Or the ICU rate.  And we wait for the next variant to emerge given all these cases!

4 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Well, no reason to complain, Bird, Canadas numbers are excellent , surpassing all bigger western nations, and I doubt that a lot of the others will get that far.

Yes.  And I might be wrong about Delta having a serious effect there.  There is always some luck involved but maybe it got the balance regarding restrictions right.  It looks like it will get past 70% (first dose) vaccinated tomorrow (according to ourworldindata).  It would be the biggest country that reached that milestone.

The EMA is apparently going to approve Moderna for teenagers next week.  The US is probably on a similar schedule.  CNN has an article about vaccinating younger kids.   A slower process.  September is the earliest possible but this article wasn't very optimistic.

[Clueless Northman]

44 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I read an article recently about how a quarter dose of Moderna still rouses a big immune response.  It is 100mg v 60mg for Pfizer (IIRC).  Maybe it is too large given some of the side-effects mentioned.

This is quite obvious to a lot of people who recently got their 2nd shot of Moderna. That stuff is a dose fit for rhinos (not complaining, for the record, still totally worth it). If my immunity doesn't last for years after that, I'll be a tiny bit upset. It should surely last way longer than Pfizer, definitely far longer than the 6-months claimed by some Israeli study.

Which makes me wonder if side-effects are even stronger or as strong for kids. If that's the case, they really should consider a smaller dose. Sure, kids can't take it as well as adults and suffer through it, but I don't think you'll convince 70% of parents it's a good idea if the level of side-effects is the same as for 20-40-y old.

[Fragile Bird]

I read somewhere (here?) that the Moderna vaccine triggered 3x as many heart issue problems as the Pfizer vaccine, which is why it hadn’t been approved for children yet.

[Spockydog]

Are there any theories as to why certain people have vaccine side effects, and others none at all? Neither me, my mum, nor my siblings had any kind of reaction to our shots. Not even a sore arm.

That leads me to wonder whether Covid resistance is in any way genetic. I mean, two people, same weight/health profile can have radically different outcomes after infection. Why? What causes this? My sister joked about our 'hardy peasant genes'. I wonder if there's any truth to this.

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on a correlation between a lack of reaction to the vaccine, and the probability of becoming seriously ill once infected?

[Clueless Northman]

No idea, sorry. Though I would assume that people who had a strong reaction on 2nd shot are definitely immune for some months, and the 10% who don't get proper immunity are mostly among those with few or no reactions. But even with Moderna, it seems the latter group is basically 50% of vaccinated people.

 

1 hour ago, L'oiseau français said:

I read somewhere (here?) that the Moderna vaccine triggered 3x as many heart issue problems as the Pfizer vaccine, which is why it hadn’t been approved for children yet.

Even with Moderna, odds of myocarditis don't seem high at all. But I'm not surprised, I had accelerated heart rate for the entire duration of my reasonably high fever, and both appeared and went down fast at the same time.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I have feared this would happen across the country, and I have little faith people will abide by the new order:

 

[Impmk2]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

That leads me to wonder whether Covid resistance is in any way genetic. I mean, two people, same weight/health profile can have radically different outcomes after infection. Why? What causes this? My sister joked about our 'hardy peasant genes'. I wonder if there's any truth to this.

Almost certainly, at a bare minimum foreign antigen recognition has a genetic determinant. Ie that's the spectrum of things that immune cells can recognise which aren't you, and effectively mount a response to.

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on a correlation between a lack of reaction to the vaccine, and the probability of becoming seriously ill once infected?

Based on the above - you'd expect there to be an inverse collelation. Ie if you mount a robust response to the vaccine your immune system is more likely to be able to quickly recognise and eliminate the virus. And younger people do seem to have a higher propensity vaccine reactions , as well as less of a chance of severe covid. However I'm also pretty sure I've read that the correlation between antibody response and covid vaccine reactions is pretty weak / non-existent. And given that 50% of people report systemic vaccine reactions for vaccines that are 90% effective at stopping symptomatic disease I wouldn't read anything into it.

[Lightning Lord]

6 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Indonesia, which has quietly grew to the 4th most populated country on the planet, is suffering the most horrific spike in cases of anywhere right now. It's Daily New Cases graph looks like a moonshot.

From mid-April, this was obviously going to happen here. As soon as some people started getting their Sinovac jabs, many people began acting like the pandemic was over. I see about fifty percent of people wearing masks in my relatively-affluent area of the city. Individuals tend to wear masks, while groups usually have people either mask-less or wearing their masks as chin straps.

Colleagues of mine gleefully crowed that they could immediately do whatever they wanted again because they received their second jabs the day before and began visiting each other's homes, where three or four generations lived together (with only the working-age generation being vaccinated).

Social distancing is a joke here. When I have to go out to get groceries, there is no attempt to keep even one meter apart, let alone two.

There was no education or instruction given with the jabs, no explanation that none of the vaccines are 100% effective, that literally hundreds of millions of people still didn't vaccinations, that there were variants of the disease, etc.

The reported numbers here are nothing close to the real numbers.

 

Those who are more scientifically-minded, may I ask if I have this right: the longer this continues, and the more millions that become infected, the higher the chance of a variant emerging that resists/eludes/moots our current vaccines? Trying to decide the extent to which I need to hide inside my house with my dog.

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Lightning Lord said:

Those who are more scientifically-minded, may I ask if I have this right: the longer this continues, and the more millions that become infected, the higher the chance of a variant emerging that resists/eludes/moots our current vaccines?

Yes, but it has only happened to a limited extent thus far despite a massive number of infections -- probably more than there will be again. Also, keep in mind that the mRNA vaccines are relatively easy to modify if we really need to.

[Lightning Lord]

14 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Yes, but it has only happened to a limited extent thus far despite a massive number of infections -- probably more than there will be again. Also, keep in mind that the mRNA vaccines are relatively easy to modify if we really need to.

That's mildly comforting.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

50 minutes ago, Lightning Lord said:

That's mildly comforting.

Easy to modify =/= easy to distribute. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 7/13/2021 at 11:50 PM, Mudguard said:

Another problem with letting tons of kids get infected is that it increases the chance of developing a worse variant.  If we don't drastically slow down the rate of infection thoughout the world, it's only a matter of time before a variant comes along that largely evades the current vaccines, and maybe is even dangerous to children.  All the vaccine hesitancy is resulting in a ticking time bomb.  There is a window with vaccination to really stamp out the virus to a level low enough to contain and then eradicate the virus, but that window is slowly closing. 

Unfortunately when that bomb goes off and countries have to reinforce their previous hardline measures—lockdowns.

Most of the people who refused to vaccinate will simply cry overreach.

I think about 30% of the US adult population will never get vaccinated unless compelled.

The majority of which because it’s a political statement towards support towards a political figure they respect.

[Filippa Eilhart]

P1 (Brazilian) variant is now prevalent in Luxembourg (75%), with Delta at 25%.

[Padraig]

26 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

P1 (Brazilian) variant is now prevalent in Luxembourg (75%), with Delta at 25%.

Well, that is a twist.  Is that a weird statistical anomoly in a small country?  Weird if gamma takes over now, given how long it has been around.  Delta seemed all conquering.

Vaccine wise, I think gamma is ok.  Beta is still the one to avoid.  But there hasn't been as much focus on gamma.

12 hours ago, L'oiseau français said:

I read somewhere (here?) that the Moderna vaccine triggered 3x as many heart issue problems as the Pfizer vaccine, which is why it hadn’t been approved for children yet.

Sounds a little off.  I think Pfizer/Biontech was just faster with its trials.  Moderna has applied in the EU and US but Pfizer has always been ahead of it.  If side effects were way worse, there would have to be a question regarding approval.  The FDA/EMA would simply tell parents to use Pfizer instead.  (At least until Moderna tested a smaller dose).

Moderna and Pfizer are using smaller doses on those under 12 though.