Covid-19 #34 - Alpha, Delta, It’s All Greek to Me!

[Maithanet]

I actually wonder if some of the right wing powers that be (IE the people telling Tucker Carlson what to say) might start to worry about the electoral consequences of COVID killing off more Trumpists than liberals.  I'm certainly hoping that the next wave(s) of COVID in the US aren't big enough to have that kind of impact.  But for example Pennsylvania has had 28k deaths from COVID in the past 18 months.  If we had another 28k deaths in the next three years and they were 80% Trump voters, that would be a meaningful problem for the GOP. 

But I doubt they're thinking that clearly about these sorts of things. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I actually wonder if some of the right wing powers that be (IE the people telling Tucker Carlson what to say) might start to worry about the electoral consequences of COVID killing off more Trumpists than liberals.  I'm certainly hoping that the next wave(s) of COVID in the US aren't big enough to have that kind of impact.  But for example Pennsylvania has had 28k deaths from COVID in the past 18 months.  If we had another 28k deaths in the next three years and they were 80% Trump voters, that would be a meaningful problem for the GOP. 

But I doubt they're thinking that clearly about these sorts of things. 

Dead people are allowed to vote as long as they vote Republican. 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

electoral consequences of COVID killing off more Trumpists than liberals.

Silly. That's what anti-voting laws are for!

In the meantime, concerning those who refuse to get vaccinated and wear masks -- we must have laws that compel the rest of us not to discriminate against them in any way.  (While of course the same people and states work around-the-clock to remove anti-discrimination laws for voting, hiring, serving, housing, etc. for everybody else. They aren't even pretending anything other than tyranny for the rest of us -- just like the ever recurrent announcements that women who won't have sex with some sort of manbaby must be forced to do so because it is a denial of his rights, his freedom and his equality -- they are discriminating against his hairy beer gut, bad breath, filthy beard and abusive behavior.

https://www.axios.com/republicans-coronavirus-vaccines-discrimination-law-states-533503fb-fa83-43d0-bd51-2d614483d241.html

 

[Clueless Northman]

17 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

"Not I" said the fly.

Sorry about that. Though technically one can presume that OZ and NZ are way East. First, I was going to write "N. America and Europe" then realized Mexico wasn't in such a good position (on the paper at least) as the US and couldn't be included. Hopefully Down under will get plenty of vaccines soon, you'll need them faster than expected, I fear - specially with NSW being close to uncontrollable outbreak, if what I can gather is alas correct. Since Europe and US see massive declines in vaccination rates, people preferring to go on vacation unvaccinated than getting inconvenienced for one day with side-effects, there will soon be tens of millions of free MRNA doses available.

 

Meanwhile in France, 2 hours ago that, Macron has decreed that, come August, covid-pass will be required in restaurants and bars - and apparently malls? Word is that tens of thousands of shit-for-brains are now flooding the vaccination sites to register to get jabbed as soon as possible. At least, kudos for having judged well how to "convince" his citizens to move their lazy behind.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Since Europe and US see massive declines in vaccination rates, people preferring to go on vacation unvaccinated than getting inconvenienced for one day with side-effects, there will soon be tens of millions of free MRNA doses available.

I was surprised to see Germany's rates start to fall off.  It has still one of the highest overall rates on the continent but Spain (for example) has now built up a visible gap over it.  And for a long time, they were similar (with Germany doing a little better mainly).

France has always been a little below average but at least they are steady at that (rather than falling off).

Overall levels in the EU are similar to the US now, so you would expect to see more hesitation around vaccinating emerging.  But yes, I don't expect as many politicians in the EU to condone anti-vac views (although, there is always a few), which will hopefully help us here.

And this is interesting regarding boosters.

[The Anti-Targ]

8 hours ago, Zorral said:

"'Surprising amount of death' will soon occur in these US regions from increased Covid-19 cases, expert says"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

Herd immunity USA YA! Covid doesn't exist! Vaccines are how the government takes away your guns so you cant kill them Others with impunity! YAY YAY YAY!!!

It's only surprising if its unexpected. It's not a surprise party if you know about it beforehand. So it won't be a surprise to see a lot more deaths as a consequence of the public health decisions being made in these places. What would be pleasantly surprising is if somehow there are a lot fewer deaths that one would expect.

4 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Sorry about that. Though technically one can presume that OZ and NZ are way East. First, I was going to write "N. America and Europe" then realized Mexico wasn't in such a good position (on the paper at least) as the US and couldn't be included. Hopefully Down under will get plenty of vaccines soon, you'll need them faster than expected, I fear - specially with NSW being close to uncontrollable outbreak, if what I can gather is alas correct. Since Europe and US see massive declines in vaccination rates, people preferring to go on vacation unvaccinated than getting inconvenienced for one day with side-effects, there will soon be tens of millions of free MRNA doses available.

 

Meanwhile in France, 2 hours ago that, Macron has decreed that, come August, covid-pass will be required in restaurants and bars - and apparently malls? Word is that tens of thousands of shit-for-brains are now flooding the vaccination sites to register to get jabbed as soon as possible. At least, kudos for having judged well how to "convince" his citizens to move their lazy behind.

As long as Aussie coughs and sneezes don't travel all the way across the Tasman Sea. And as long as our Olympians return from Tokyo noninfectious (all have been vaccinated but we know that doesn't prevent spreading). Then I think we can get to our planned high rate of vaccination and reopening of the country according to the planned timetable, and without a major outbreak.

I just wish state govts in Aussie were a bit more on the ball with lockdowns. The NSW premier took way to long to put Sydney into lockdown. But that's par for the course for pretty much all right-wing govts. They downplay and downplay until the horse has not only bolted but is across having it's way with the horses in the neighbouring farm. She got all pissy at NZ the last time NSW had a bit of a hiccup when we closed the travel bubble for 48hrs just to keep an eye on the situation, saying we had grossly overreacted. When this latest one came along we played nice and didn't close the bubble as soon as last time, and what we got for that was a scare in Wellington and somehow dodging a bullet by not getting any local cases from this dude who was visiting. Given the NSW govt's laxity in responding to new outbreaks I would rather see us locking them out as soon as a new case is reported than wait until the NSW Premier decides it's worth her attention.

[Kalbear]

Surprise! Contagious disease does not stop being contagious or a disease when you just, like, want it to

 

[Impmk2]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I just wish state govts in Aussie were a bit more on the ball with lockdowns....

Eh that's a bit of a blanket statement which doesn't really reflect the situation across much of the country. After the Victorian outbreak last year the state governments in Australia have adopted different levels of risk aversion, ranging from WA - lockdowns at basically any cases at all and will close all borders for extended periods on even a hint of virus. To NSW - will tolerate 10-20 cases a day if contact tracing is keeping on top of it, and then localised lockdowns when things start looking dicey, and that's seen them through the pandemic for much of the past year with almost no deaths. However most states are probably more towards the WA side of the spectrum and will quite quickly lock cities down for a few days if there's any community transmission.

Obviously NSW's strategy in this case has failed, delta + winter + some bad luck and it's all gone out of control, and they've got a job on their hands trying to stop the virus running through a naive and largely unvaccinated population. Hopefully as they continue to ramp up the lockdown it comes back down again soon.

[Loge]

9 hours ago, Padraig said:

I was surprised to see Germany's rates start to fall off.  It has still one of the highest overall rates on the continent but Spain (for example) has now built up a visible gap over it.  And for a long time, they were similar (with Germany doing a little better mainly).

France has always been a little below average but at least they are steady at that (rather than falling off).

Overall levels in the EU are similar to the US now, so you would expect to see more hesitation around vaccinating emerging.  But yes, I don't expect as many politicians in the EU to condone anti-vac views (although, there is always a few), which will hopefully help us here.

And this is interesting regarding boosters.

People in Germany are quite obsessed with their summer vacations. They won't miss those for a vaccination. And as we'll have federal elections in September, no politician is ready to tell them they can't travel. Instead, the narrative has been that we don't have to worry about Corona before autumn.

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 minutes ago, Loge said:

People in Germany are quite obsessed with their summer vacations. They won't miss those for a vaccination. And as we'll have federal elections in September, no politician is ready to tell them they can't travel. Instead, the narrative has been that we don't have to worry about Corona before autumn.

Normal people worry about the Greens taking the cars away! :p

[JoannaL]

4 hours ago, Loge said:

People in Germany are quite obsessed with their summer vacations. They won't miss those for a vaccination. And as we'll have federal elections in September, no politician is ready to tell them they can't travel. Instead, the narrative has been that we don't have to worry about Corona before autumn.

Thats the optimistic explanation, because it implies that the people will vaccinate after their vacation. I am not so sure about that. One can hope.

in other news , Germany plans to give all their AZ (the approx  7 mio they have and the 19 mio they expect during the next 2 month) to covax. With the guideline change to get second vaccination with a mRNA vaccine after AZ, and with having now enough vaccine overall there was no one left to give it to here. I hope they are quick enough to give it away before it expires (no idea how complicate that is).

It looks like traveling will be not only be  possible but more or less good organized. The EU decided for the CovePass, a digital certificate of your vaccination status for all their member state citizens, and when I heard about it I thought this will never work in time. But I (and my husband and my son) got their digital vaccination certificate without problem or any hassle, took 5 min to download an app,  so that works.

[Fragile Bird]

I meant to post yesterday that Canada is donating 17.7 M doses of AZ to COVAX as well.

[Rippounet]

18 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Meanwhile in France, 2 hours ago that, Macron has decreed that, come August, covid-pass will be required in restaurants and bars - and apparently malls? Word is that tens of thousands of shit-for-brains are now flooding the vaccination sites to register to get jabbed as soon as possible.

The bolded is 200% true. I've heard hilarious figures like 100mn-waiting-time to book an appointment, or 17,000 appointments being booked every minute. The figures are probably exaggerated, but the panic throughout the country is very real.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Been meaning to get back to commenting about the proper response to those unwilling to get vaccinated in spite of making it more dangerous for everyone else in the country.

Unsurprisingly my suggestion of inprisononing and bankrupting them has solicited the Dudley Do Right back stiffening protests I thought it would.

I think it's a case of semantics though, of course inprisonment and bankrupting will never be on the table. What would make a great course of action though is making not getting vaccinated very very difficult, currently there's little to nothing being done in this area.

Those that haven't willingly done the right thing by now could use some pushing.

Unvaccinated and lose as many privileges as we can take from them.

Hunting licenses, driving licenses, any civil issued licenses from teaching to practicing professions.

No vaccination lose travel privileges that require a visa or the FAA, I think airports should be off limits to people unwillingly to get unvaccinated, cruise ships should also be unavailable to people unwilling to get vaccinated.

Some of that wish list might not be attainable. The point is do something, anything  to make it way way more difficult for people to not be compliant with our public health needs of them getting vaccinated. They are not going to comply on their own, they are going to have to be led and forced a little, the status quo is unacceptable and dangerously irresponsible.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I think airports should be off limits to people unwillingly to get unvaccinated

That would help solve the increasing terror those people are inflicting on the flight attendants, other passengers and everyone in airport terminals and planes are suffering daily.

Anecdotally only: I am seeing these propositions increasingly being put forth in all kinds of forums and media. It won't happen though, because anyone with the power to maybe start such remedies are terrified that the determinedly unvaccinated and maskless will come after them with guns in order to kill them.

Yes, I will kill you in the name of my freedom to get sick and make you take care of me, and even pay for it --- and make you sick and maybe die yourself.  As one has noticed since the Reagan elections rationality, logic, truth, honestly, facts have nothing to do with any of this.

[Clueless Northman]

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

What would make a great course of action though is making not getting vaccinated very very difficult, currently there's little to nothing being done in this area.

Unvaccinated and lose as many privileges as we can take from them.

Hunting licenses, driving licenses, any civil issued licenses from teaching to practicing professions.

No vaccination lose travel privileges that require a visa or the FAA, I think airports should be off limits to people unwillingly to get unvaccinated, cruise ships should also be unavailable to people unwilling to get vaccinated.

Basically what Macron began - for once I fully agree with his stance. And it works. In half a day, there has been a million people who registered to get shot, out of less than 60 mio of eligible people, and out of less than 25 mio who haven't had a 1st jab.

[Kalbear]

I've put in for fully remote work past our deadline; hopefully it gets approved. We may be re-withdrawing the kids from in-person school as well, as one of them isn't vaccinated yet and we don't know when they will be. 

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Kaligator said:

I've put in for fully remote work past our deadline; hopefully it gets approved. We may be re-withdrawing the kids from in-person school as well, as one of them isn't vaccinated yet and we don't know when they will be. 

Seems like a sensible move. Worldometer says there has been a 44% increase in the 7-day case numbers. That's definitely not the direction you want the numbers to be heading.

John Campbell in DW TV surmising that herd immunity with the delta variant may require up to 95% of the population to be immune:

Though the main thrust of the interview was about mandatory vaccination for healthcare workers. Really, unless there is a medical reason not to I can't understand why healthcare workers would be avoiding getting vaccinated. I mean, is anti-vaxx more than a negligible attitude in the healthcare sector? I suppose non-medically trained workers might be proportionally as anti-vaxx as the general population, but that would still be a bit surprising, because most anti-vaxxers are kind of generally wary of mainstream medicine so I would not expect them to get jobs in the mainstream medical sector. Of course there is vaccine hesitancy, which is more prevalent than actual anti-vaxx views, so one can't lump everyone who is avoiding getting vaccinated in the same camp.

Daily news reports of vaccine side effects aren't helping with vaccine hesitancy. Every vaccine has side effect risks, but we don;t hear them reported, ever, aside from the COVID vaccine. So that makes the general public believe the COVID vaccine is significantly more risky than others.

[Zorral]

We were at nearly 0 for new cases here; my own neighborhood was as close to zero for positive as one get just about, with no new cases, no hospitalizations and no deaths.

But steadily the rates are ticking up again in the last week.  Definitely not unmasking in company indoors with anybody I don't know very very very well.  And not going places, no no no.  Though partner is going out to hear a Cuban musician (who lives here) and probably everybody will be weeping due to the needlessly stupid mess that is in Cuba now, the responsibility of which is both the sitting government's -- the covid mess -- and that of no food -- due to the US. Which also, by the embargo making it nearly impossible for Cuba to get syringes and other medical equipment., because the US has imposed its sanction/bloco provisions on the globe. Holy hell, how in hell did that happen?

It's heartbreaking as well as infuriating, the needless, deliberate cruelty.

 

 

[Kalbear]

remember, kids will be fine if they get covid, they said, only worry about deaths, they said

https://amp.sunherald.com/news/coronavirus/article252748863.html?__twitter_impression=true