Covid-19 #34 - Alpha, Delta, It’s All Greek to Me!

[Padraig]

 

13 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Romania and Bulgaria seem to have a really big problem with vaccine uptake. At first I think they didn't have enough vaccines because they ordered mostly AZ but now it looks like there's just no interest. Romania is at 29% adult population and Bulgaria at 16%.

Ahh.  That's a good call.  I've been bemused by Bulgaria's figures for a while.  They are as bad as Russia.  The ECDC site says that they have been given 4.7m doses and they have used 1.7m.  That's very embarrasing.  There actually is a story online about them donating vaccines to neighbouring countries.  Of the 4.7m, 1.3m are AZ/J&J but that still leaves a lot of mRNA vaccines around.  I think they were one of the biggest beneficaries of those extra Pfizer vaccines that the EU (or Austria really) was arguing about a few months ago.

The Russian bots must be doing well over there.

They are one of the worst countries in Europe for deaths per population, so its not like they have escaped this thing.

Madness.

1 hour ago, L'oiseau français said:

I also heard during my early morning listen to CNBC today that apparently some study shows immunity may be stronger and last longer than initially thought, that booster shots may not be required?

I think somebody here pointed out that the pharma companies are the people championing boosters.  Other scientists seem to be much more open minded about it.  So hopefully boosters will not be required for a while (except maybe for those that are immuno-compromised).  Give other countries a chance to get their first doses!  I haven't seen the latest news though.

And yes, I have seen a lot of articles talk about how Pfizer and Moderna are so similar.  But who knows!

[Clueless Northman]

2 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Of the 4.7m, 1.3m are AZ/J&J but that still leaves a lot of mRNA vaccines around.  I think they were one of the biggest beneficaries of those extra Pfizer vaccines that the EU (or Austria really) was arguing about a few months ago.

They are one of the worst countries in Europe for deaths per population, so its not like they have escaped this thing.

What the heck? I always assumed they just had to rely on AZ and were reluctant, but if these fools had millions of Pfizer and didn't use them, then they should be considered a global biohazard, and cut off from the rest of EU until they sort that shit out, specially with Delta that will wreck them badly in a few months.

As for boosters and the like, I've never seen scientists and doctors talking about yearly shots, it's always been Moderna and Pfizer CEOs stating this would be required, which makes no sense since we know that after 18 months of wide and wild circulation, the virus is nowhere close to escaping current vaccines, and there was no reason to expect immunity to drop that fast. The reason why flu shots are a yearly feature is because of the high mutation rate of the virus and the various strains.

 

5 hours ago, L'oiseau français said:

What is Europe doing about mixing vaccines? I understand many countries are telling people who got a first dose of AZ that it's ok to get an mRNA vaccine for their second dose, but is any country in Europe mixing Pfizer and Moderna?

Supply delivery is quite messy indeed. That said, I assume the only unknown with mixing MRNA vaccines is if immunity would last as long with 1 shot of each rather than 2 shots of the same one - granted, I would also wonder how big reaction after 2nd dose would be. Other than that, for immunity against current variants for the next couple of years, I would assume basically no difference. Of course, I'm not a virologist, I don't even play one on TV. With Delta variant closing in, if I had to pick another MRNA in 2 weeks or wait 2-3 months to get the same vaccine, I'd probably opt for the fastest option - even if research shows that immunity might work even better the longer the delay between shots, because time is of the matter for now, and we can always get a 3rd shot in a few years. Though of course I'm not in such a delicate and shitty situation, so don't take my word for it. Good luck!

[Impmk2]

The coding region for the Pfizer / Moderna mRNA is literally 100% the same. They both make your cells produce exactly the same antigen - full length spike protein with a double-proline amino acid substitution (the prefusion stabilisation modification). Of course there may be some differences in concentration (ie the amount in each dose) and the lipid composition. But they really couldn't be much more alike. On paper at least, of all the vaccines to mix, those would be the 2. Having said that, I would still take 2x dose of the same if there was the option there.

[Padraig]

ECDC website for clarity.  You can then select any country available.

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#national-ref-tab

[Loge]

9 hours ago, L'oiseau français said:

Honestly, it makes my head hurt to think the US isn’t 70% fully vaccinated already.  

I see that a study out of Oxford shows boosted immunity from AZ + Pfizer, but that Pfizer + AZ boosted the T-cell response more than the other way around. 
 

I also heard during my early morning listen to CNBC today that apparently some study shows immunity may be stronger and last longer than initially thought, that booster shots may not be required? Was that from the Oxford report? When I turned on the show the hosts were in the middle of discussing it.

I wouldn't bet on the US ever reaching 70% full vaccination. Their vaccination campaign has slowed down substantially. The good news is that the EU will now get the Moderna vaccine it ordered faster than expected, because the US aren't using theirs.

Israel is a rather interesting case. They got 50% of the population vaccinated really fast, then things slowed down and they practically stopped at 60% fully vaccinated.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

[Makk]

Looks like us in NZ have dodged a bullet again. The recent Sydney tourist who came over with the delta variant was in close proximity to more than 1000 people over a weekend but after a week of testing it seems the only person he infected was his partner. Touch wood. He had a single of the Astra vaccine so it is possible that reduced his level of infectiousness.

[Padraig]

Quote

The separate Oxford study of the AstraZeneca vaccine found that delaying the second dose even up to 45 weeks after the first dose produced an antibody response that was four times greater than with the 12-week interval.

Am I understanding this correctly to mean that AZ flatlines at some stage (say 12 weeks) and gets a massive increase at 45 weeks if a second dose is given then?  Rather that the response deteriorating after 12 weeks and then increasing considerably?

https://fortune.com/2021/06/28/mixing-covid-19-vaccine-doses-produces-potentially-better-immunity-study-finds-astrazeneca-pfizer/

And as Fragile Bird mentioned, there is a new (smally) study published in Nature, which suggests that the vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna appear to trigger a strong and durable immune response in the body.   Especially in those that have already had an infection.  This article gives a link to the Nature pdf.

Ireland is so scared of Delta that we are re-opening under 40's to AZ and J&J.  Although, specifics are still not confirmed.  Medical people say they are much more prepared for any blood disorders now!

[Myshkin]

Do we have a thread for tales of Covid stupidity? 

[Fragile Bird]

4 minutes ago, Trishkin said:

Do we have a thread for tales of Covid stupidity? 

This one will do, I think.

[Larry of the Lawn]

32 minutes ago, Trishkin said:

Do we have a thread for tales of Covid stupidity? 

The floor is yours

[Clueless Northman]

30 minutes ago, Trishkin said:

Do we have a thread for tales of Covid stupidity? 

Do you plan to create the biggest thread in the history of internet?

 

52 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Am I understanding this correctly to mean that AZ flatlines at some stage (say 12 weeks) and gets a massive increase at 45 weeks if a second dose is given then?  Rather that the response deteriorating after 12 weeks and then increasing considerably?

Interesting. Sadly, with Delta incoming, I don't think any country has the luxury of waiting 10 months to give 2nd dose of AZ to its population. Countries that delayed it by 3 months or more are already seeing increases in cases and reversing their policies. That said, considering both the 45-week study and the 3 AZ doses one, it seems that basically giving another dose, be it 2nd or 3rd, 6-12 months after the previous shot, might trick the body to get a truly lasting immunity; a pattern we've seen with other vaccines, so not unsurprising, and imho a great news, specially if it means the immune response doesn't target a few variants but a far wider range of possible variants.

Alternating vaccines is an interesting strategy. It means that diversifying the range of covid wannabes allows the immune system to really worry about anything looking like these jerks and consider them as a major threat needing extreme measures. Considering the results of all these studies, it'll be interesting to see if alternating 2 vaccines in 4-6 weeks and getting 2/3 doses over a year offers the same kind of long-lasting wide-reaching immunity - of course, we won't know for sure for a long time.

[Myshkin]

30 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

The floor is yours

Okay, so I’ll start off with a little background; I’ve been living in Cabo San Lucas since the pandemic began (so my momma wouldn’t have to go through this alone), and here we have a bunch of American and Canadian expats. And those expats are for some reason disproportionately Trumpster morons. It’s weird. Anyway, about an hour ago I saw my neighbor for the first time in weeks. He’s a Canadian Trumpster, and a full on vociferous anti-vax idiot. He’s also a real estate agent, but his agency is only letting vaccinated agents show houses. So what does this idiot do? He pays $200 (dollars, not pesos) for a fake vaccine card. He’s so proud of this little bit of idiocy that he’s been bragging about it. So you can probably guess why I haven’t seen this dumbass for several weeks; yup, he nearly died of Covid. Three separate hospitals stays, including time on a ventilator. And that shit ain’t cheap for a non-citizen who doesn’t pay into or qualify for IMSS. To get a bed he had to go to one of the fancy-pants tourist trap hospitals, and they milked him for tens of thousands of dollars. And he still looks like sunburnt death. But now, oh now he believes this virus is real, and he’s jumping a flight back to Canada next week to get his jab (he’s hoping for J&J, because he still don’t trust that mRNA nonsense). Thing is, I seriously doubt this will be the last person I know here who finally fucking sees the light after nearly dying. Vaccine availability is still limited in Mexico, and Delta is doing a number on us. But still there are people playing macho and pretending that the whole thing’s a conspiracy. And the kicker is most of those people have American or Canadian passports, and can hop on a flight anytime to a place where vaccines are widely available.

[maarsen]

21 minutes ago, Trishkin said:

Okay, so I’ll start off with a little background; I’ve been living in Cabo San Lucas since the pandemic began (so my momma wouldn’t have to go through this alone), and here we have a bunch of American and Canadian expats. And those expats are for some reason disproportionately Trumpster morons. It’s weird. Anyway, about an hour ago I saw my neighbor for the first time in weeks. He’s a Canadian Trumpster, and a full on vociferous anti-vax idiot. He’s also a real estate agent, but his agency is only letting vaccinated agents show houses. So what does this idiot do? He pays $200 (dollars, not pesos) for a fake vaccine card. He’s so proud of this little bit of idiocy that he’s been bragging about it. So you can probably guess why I haven’t seen this dumbass for several weeks; yup, he nearly died of Covid. Three separate hospitals stays, including time on a ventilator. And that shit ain’t cheap for a non-citizen who doesn’t pay into or qualify for IMSS. To get a bed he had to go to one of the fancy-pants tourist trap hospitals, and they milked him for tens of thousands of dollars. And he still looks like sunburnt death. But now, oh now he believes this virus is real, and he’s jumping a flight back to Canada next week to get his jab (he’s hoping for J&J, because he still don’t trust that mRNA nonsense). Thing is, I seriously doubt this will be the last person I know here who finally fucking sees the light after nearly dying. Vaccine availability is still limited in Mexico, and Delta is doing a number on us. But still there are people playing macho and pretending that the whole thing’s a conspiracy. And the kicker is most of those people have American or Canadian passports, and can hop on a flight anytime to a place where vaccines are widely available.

Being Canadian this really makes me have mixed emotions. I have to laugh at his stupidity, but the fact he is my countryman makes me sad.

[Zorral]

This is all beyond my limited understanding.  I really, really, really cannot.

 

[Paxter]

18 hours ago, Loge said:

I wouldn't bet on the US ever reaching 70% full vaccination. Their vaccination campaign has slowed down substantially. The good news is that the EU will now get the Moderna vaccine it ordered faster than expected, because the US aren't using theirs.

Israel is a rather interesting case. They got 50% of the population vaccinated really fast, then things slowed down and they practically stopped at 60% fully vaccinated.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

That largely comes down to young people (who make up just under 30% of the Israeli population) not being vaccinated (either due to parents' influence or lack of an authorized vaccine for under 12s). Adults did a good job of getting the jab. 

Israel apparently has the highest fertilty rate among OECD nations, hence the large % of young people. 

So yeah, it's not really surprising they maxed at 60%. Older nations will fare better. 

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Trishkin said:

Okay, so I’ll start off with a little background; I’ve been living in Cabo San Lucas since the pandemic began (so my momma wouldn’t have to go through this alone), and here we have a bunch of American and Canadian expats. And those expats are for some reason disproportionately Trumpster morons. It’s weird. Anyway, about an hour ago I saw my neighbor for the first time in weeks. He’s a Canadian Trumpster, and a full on vociferous anti-vax idiot. He’s also a real estate agent, but his agency is only letting vaccinated agents show houses. So what does this idiot do? He pays $200 (dollars, not pesos) for a fake vaccine card. He’s so proud of this little bit of idiocy that he’s been bragging about it. So you can probably guess why I haven’t seen this dumbass for several weeks; yup, he nearly died of Covid. Three separate hospitals stays, including time on a ventilator. And that shit ain’t cheap for a non-citizen who doesn’t pay into or qualify for IMSS. To get a bed he had to go to one of the fancy-pants tourist trap hospitals, and they milked him for tens of thousands of dollars. And he still looks like sunburnt death. But now, oh now he believes this virus is real, and he’s jumping a flight back to Canada next week to get his jab (he’s hoping for J&J, because he still don’t trust that mRNA nonsense). Thing is, I seriously doubt this will be the last person I know here who finally fucking sees the light after nearly dying. Vaccine availability is still limited in Mexico, and Delta is doing a number on us. But still there are people playing macho and pretending that the whole thing’s a conspiracy. And the kicker is most of those people have American or Canadian passports, and can hop on a flight anytime to a place where vaccines are widely available.

J&J isn't available ATM in Canada, so good luck to him!

[Myshkin]

1 hour ago, Dog of England said:

Being Canadian this really makes me have mixed emotions. I have to laugh at his stupidity, but the fact he is my countryman makes me sad.

I don’t know why, but nearly all the Canadians in Mexico are super right wing. Maybe they’re all here because they fled the Canadian Marxist dystopia.

7 minutes ago, Paxter said:

J&J isn't available ATM in Canada, so good luck to him!

Yeah well, as evidenced above, this guy ain’t known for thinking things through.

[Fragile Bird]

9 minutes ago, Trishkin said:

I don’t know why, but nearly all the Canadians in Mexico are super right wing. Maybe they’re all here because they fled the Canadian Marxist dystopia.

Yeah well, as evidenced above, this guy ain’t known for thinking things through.

Right wing Canadians dream of living in the land of the free, whether that’s in the US, Mexico, South or Central America or the Caribbean. They hate snow.

Health Canada hadn’t approved any J&J because, I think, it came from the Emergent plant. Inspectors went down to the plant with US inspectors and couldn’t make a determination about the safety of the 300,000 we got, and sent them back.

[Paxter]

A friend of mine from Toronto is a bit of a Trumper. Hubby moreso.

And yup, they're moving to TX. 

[Filippa Eilhart]

re: covid stupidity. I have an acquaintance (I hesitate to call her a friend, lol), whose father died of Covid. She still doesn't believe in Covid killing people or the vaccines.