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Heresy 236 and the Musgrave Ritual


Black Crow

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

Do we have a witness of Lyanna's abduction?

No direct witnesses.  Only Ned and Howland know what happened and they are not talking.  This is the best bit of indirect information we have:

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A Clash of Kings - Catelyn VII

"If you say so. You and he were to wed."

"He was on his way to Riverrun when . . ." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. ". . . when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead. It was a rash thing to do." She remembered how her own father had raged when the news had been brought to Riverrun. The gallant fool, was what he called Brandon.

Jaime poured the last half cup of wine. "He rode into the Red Keep with a few companions, shouting for Prince Rhaegar to come out and die. But Rhaegar wasn't there. Aerys sent his guards to arrest them all for plotting his son's murder. The others were lords' sons too, it seems to me."

"Ethan Glover was Brandon's squire," Catelyn said. "He was the only one to survive. The others were Jeffory Mallister, Kyle Royce, and Elbert Arryn, Jon Arryn's nephew and heir." It was queer how she still remembered the names, after so many years. "Aerys accused them of treason and summoned their fathers to court to answer the charge, with the sons as hostages. When they came, he had them murdered without trial. Fathers and sons both."

It's a good bet that what Brandon heard about Lyanna was that she had gone missing.  My first question is where was Lyanna before she went missing?  Was she travelling to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding when she vanished into thin air.  She wasn't travelling with Rickard when he came south; so she was already in the South and probably Brandon was as well.   I think they were both at the Eyrie preparing to go to Riverrun when Brandon went ahead first.

The big question is Howland. Has he been with Ned the whole time?   If Howland was put in Ned's path to  ensure that the next generation was born; was he also put in Lyanna's path for the same purpose?  If anyone could spirit her away without detection, it would be Howland.  It's looks to me like the Butler did it.

What we don't know is who sent the message to Brandon and Hoster Tully and what it said.  But I'm reminded of the message that Caitlyn receives from Lysa and the subterfuge that was beneath it.  It seems likely to me that Brandon was lured to Kingslanding by someone who knew how prickly the Starks could be..

 

 

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

Do we have a witness of Lyanna's abduction?

None alive or known.

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"Someone told." Hotah shrugged. "Someone always tells."

This quote does not apply when honourable Ned takes care of things. This one might apply considering how Ned silenced any rumours about Ashara (and probably others):

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No tales were ever told of me. Do you think I would be sitting here if it were otherwise? Your amusements are your own, I will not chide you on that count, but you must be more discreet. A peaceful land, a quiet people. That has always been my rule. Make it yours

 

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

Do we have a witness of Lyanna's abduction?

As Tucu says, none alive or known, but this may not be significant. It has plausibly been suggested that the actual location may have been the Crossroads Inn [Masha Heddle's place] in which case we can look to the news spreading naturally just as it did when Lady Stark lifted Tyrion Lannister 

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17 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

As Tucu says, none alive or known, but this may not be significant. It has plausibly been suggested that the actual location may have been the Crossroads Inn [Masha Heddle's place] in which case we can look to the news spreading naturally just as it did when Lady Stark lifted Tyrion Lannister 

This is a likely place for Brandon to 'hear' about Lyanna.  Potentially also a place where Lyanna or Rhaegar would have stopped if they where travelling.  They don't necessarily have to have been travelling together, even if they crossed paths, for the rumour mill to go to work,  The Inn is also conveniently close to two potential hiding places:  The Isle of Faces and the Quiet Isle.  

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Well we have this bit from the Worldbook which is oddly specific:

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With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.  But that tale is too well-known to warrant repeating here.

And purportedly this bit was from one of the chapters written by GRRM himself.

So not only do we have a location closest to Harrenhal (which is odd) we have the acknowledgment that the tale of Lyanna’s abduction is well known to all.

And nothing in Eddard’s thoughts or words seem to betray the fact that Rhaegar was involved.  In fact he acknowledges to Robert, that Rhaegar’s killing at the Trident served as vengeance for Lyanna.

Of course in Eddard’s talk with Arya he also acknowledges that Lyanna’s wildness and willfulness led to her early death.

But back to the location, the fact that it’s given as a length of distance from Harrenhal seems to either imply that Harrenhal is the nearest significant landmark to where she went missing, or that it was widely known that around the time of Lyanna’s abduction/disappearance that she was staying in or traveling to Harrenhal.

I’m leaning towards the latter.  

While Harrenhal is a bit further south than an ideal meeting place for a wedding parties heading from Winterfell and the Vale en route to Riverrun, it is a large castle controlled by the Whents who were known friends of the Night’s Watch (so they may at least share that bit with the Starks).

And depending on how large the parties were it’s a large enough castle to easily host them.  Of course so is Darry and Darry is a more convenient stopping point.

The other possibility is that the parties did meet up at the Crossroads or at Darry, yet for some reason Lyanna headed off to Harrenhal.  Perhaps this is part of the “willfulness” that Eddard mentions.

Now if she did travel to Harrenhal on her own, it would be interesting as to why.  There are two people that she probably has a strong association with Harrenhal.  One of course is Rhaegar.  But the other is Howland who Lyanna befriended.   I do wonder where Howland travelled to after the Harrenhal tourney.

Did he return to Greywatch?  Or the Isle of Faces?  Or did he stay around the vicinity of Harrenhal?

 

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

And purportedly this bit was from one of the chapters written by GRRM himself.

So not only do we have a location closest to Harrenhal (which is odd) we have the acknowledgment that the tale of Lyanna’s abduction is well known to all.

This is still based on hearsay and as a story it's gets top billing for it's entertainment value.  It takes on a life of it's own the more it's repeated by singers and bards and the more it's repeated, the more likely it's accepted as the truth.

We can place Lyanna at Winterfell after the tourney when she and Ned discuss her betrothal.  Was she travelling to Riverrun when Rhaegar 'fell upon her'.  Was he travelling to Harrenhall to retrieve Elia and Ashera to escort them back to Dragonstone?  Did they fall into each others company on the road and land up at the Inn where they were seen by the locals? 

Or is there only a story that Rhaegar fell upon her and that story was shared at the Inn and they were never there.  I'm reminded of the story of the Fisherman's Daughter and what was made of that encounter by the locals. 

 

 

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With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.  But that tale is too well-known to warrant repeating here.

The wording here is interesting. To work backwards, the narrator dismisses the tale as too well-known to repeat, but yet its important in its consequences. Blame the ballad-singers, and their tales of love and elopement. True or not, a sore point with Trouserless Bob, which evidently irked him afterwards.

I'm inclined to read it as Rhaegar did indeed fall upon Lyanna Stark and carry her off, but the ballad singers, as ballad singers do, romanticised it when Rhaegar may have had different motives altogether. Number one was to prevent the wedding.

Then to the beginning;  the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell,

 Now the immediate point here is that Rhaegar set off on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the Riverlands.  That very clearly says that the Riverlands were not his immediate destination - he went to or at least was heading somewhere else first. Lyanna may indeed have been snatched up opportunistically - she wasn't his original objective.

As to Harrenhal, its worth bearing in mind that 10 leagues equates to 30 of our miles

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30 minutes ago, LynnS said:

This is still based on hearsay and as a story it's gets top billing for it's entertainment value.  It takes on a life of it's own the more it's repeated by singers and bards and the more it's repeated, the more likely it's accepted as the truth.

We can place Lyanna at Winterfell after the tourney when she and Ned discuss her betrothal.  Was she travelling to Riverrun when Rhaegar 'fell upon her'.  Was he travelling to Harrenhall to retrieve Elia and Ashera to escort them back to Dragonstone?  Did they fall into each others company on the road and land up at the Inn where they were seen by the locals? 

Or is there only a story that Rhaegar fell upon her and that story was shared at the Inn and they were never there.  I'm reminded of the story of the Fisherman's Daughter and what was made of that encounter by the locals. 

 

 

I suppose.  Although ten leagues of Harrenhal is awfully specific.  Of course like anything else we have to take it with a grain of salt, I agree with that.  

But since we’re given so precious little to go on, it seems a bit presumptuous to write off what little info we are given.  I’d rather analyze it a bit to see if it gives us any clarity.

For example, take Eddard’s comment to Arya that Lyanna’s wildness and willfulness led her to an early grave.  I think many of the posters who lean towards a romantic tale of two star crossed lovers in Lyanna and Rhaegar interpret that to be an acknowledgment by Eddard that Lyanna willingly ran off with Rhaegar.  It was certainly the interpretation that I had for a while.  

But Lyanna’s disappearance by Harrenhal during a trip from Winterfell to Riverrun certainly provides an alternate possibility.

Assuming that Lyanna was traveling with her father from Winterfell, it is odd that they would have made their way to Harrenhal.   

So let’s assume for an instant that they took the most probable course, and either stopped at the Inn at the Crossroads or at Darry castle.  Lyanna’s journey to Harrenhal could be the wildness/willfulness described by Eddard, which would be an act that occurred before her abduction.

If that’s the case, then it seems probable that her abduction was observed, which is why the Maesters seem to have a specific location in mind.  And the distance was taken from Harrenhal because it was either known that was where Lyanna was heading or where Lyanna was returning from.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

As to Harrenhal, its worth bearing in mind that 10 leagues equates to 30 of our miles

I understand and without a point of reference on ASOIAF’s maps, it’s hard to exactly wrap my head around the perimeter around Harrenhal that this would encompass.

Although, I do think it’s telling that the distance is given from Harrenhal and not some other location.

So I think it only leaves two possibilities:

1.  Harrenhal is the closest point of reference to where Lyanna was abducted or

2.  Harrenhal is the last known place associated with Lyanna.  And she was either traveling towards Harrenhal when she was abducted or she was traveling away from Harrenhal when she was abducted.  

If Lyanna was at the Inn at the Crossroads when she was abducted or that was the last place she was known to be before her disappearance than that would be the location given as her abduction.  Not ten leagues from Harrenhal.

Likewise if she had left the Inn at the Crossroads and was traveling towards Riverrun, it seems probable that the location of her abduction would be described as either the distance she was from the Inn or from Riverrun.

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3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I understand and without a point of reference on ASOIAF’s maps, it’s hard to exactly wrap my head around the perimeter around Harrenhal that this would encompass.

Although, I do think it’s telling that the distance is given from Harrenhal and not some other location.

Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell,

I think that there's more implied than Harrenhal simply being Lyanna's departure-point or destination. Rather its a comment on Rhaegar's daring, penetrating so deeply into hostile [?] territory, and getting out again safely

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5 hours ago, LynnS said:

No direct witnesses.  Only Ned and Howland know what happened and they are not talking.  This is the best bit of indirect information we have:

It's a good bet that what Brandon heard about Lyanna was that she had gone missing.  My first question is where was Lyanna before she went missing?  Was she travelling to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding when she vanished into thin air.  She wasn't travelling with Rickard when he came south; so she was already in the South and probably Brandon was as well.   I think they were both at the Eyrie preparing to go to Riverrun when Brandon went ahead first.

The big question is Howland. Has he been with Ned the whole time?   If Howland was put in Ned's path to  ensure that the next generation was born; was he also put in Lyanna's path for the same purpose?  If anyone could spirit her away without detection, it would be Howland.  It's looks to me like the Butler did it.

What we don't know is who sent the message to Brandon and Hoster Tully and what it said.  But I'm reminded of the message that Caitlyn receives from Lysa and the subterfuge that was beneath it.  It seems likely to me that Brandon was lured to Kingslanding by someone who knew how prickly the Starks could be..

 

 

I have a different theory. I believe Lyanna went missing shortly after the tourney at Harrenhal. 

Its such a long distance from Winterfell to both Harrenhal and Riverrun that I think Brandon coordinated his wedding with Catelyn to coincide with the tourney so that he could make a single trip down. Catelyn said her father would always ask her to wait for him whenever he rode off to court or fair or battle and then immediately afterward she said Brandon did the same. There was no battle at the time, at least not yet so that leaves "court" or "fair". A tourney is a type of fair, so I believe Brandon was asking Catelyn to wait for him to return after the tourney.

Here is how I think this went down. Brandon stopped at Riverrun prior to the tourney to set the date. The wedding is announced and Littlefinger challenges Brandon to a duel. After the duel, Brandon heads to Harrenhal for the tourney with plans to return for the wedding.

Rereading the passage where Catelyn describes for Jaime how Brandon "heard about Lyanna", it sounds like he never arrived for the wedding.

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A Game of Thrones - Catelyn X

She was no stranger to waiting, after all. Her men had always made her wait. "Watch for me, little cat," her father would always tell her, when he rode off to court or fair or battle. And she would, standing patiently on the battlements of Riverrun as the waters of the Red Fork and the Tumblestone flowed by. He did not always come when he said he would, and days would ofttimes pass as Catelyn stood her vigil, peering out between crenels and through arrow loops until she caught a glimpse of Lord Hoster on his old brown gelding, trotting along the river-shore toward the landing. "Did you watch for me?" he'd ask when he bent to hug her. "Did you, little cat?"

Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return." Yet when the day came at last, it was his brother Eddard who stood beside her in the sept.

 

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A Clash of Kings - Catelyn VII

"If you say so. You and he were to wed."

"He was on his way to Riverrun when . . ." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. ". . . when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead. It was a rash thing to do." She remembered how her own father had raged when the news had been brought to Riverrun. The gallant fool, was what he called Brandon.

 

Just to be clear. When Brandon tells Catelyn that he will not be long and that they will wed on his return - this is not in response to hearing about Lyanna, because the second quote makes it clear that he never arrived at Riverrun for the wedding. He was on his way, but after hearing about Lyanna he rode to Kings Landing instead. Clearly someone brought the news to Hoster after the fact.

Now, as to when Lyanna went missing. It would have to be after the tourney, but before Brandon's wedding. We all know the tourney was held sometime at the end of 281 during the False Spring which was two months before the end of the year. I think Lyanna and Howland left the tourney together, but separate from Brandon. The intention was to go to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding, but they ended up running and hiding from the search parties that King Aerys had sent to look for the KofLT.

Arya describes how she has to serve three days out of every thirty for the House of Black and White when there is no moon. This is in the titled chapter, Cat of the Canals. As you heretics well know, I believe the titled chapters are parallel inversion chapters and detail more than one story. There are multiple hidden stories within the parallels. My interpretation of the three moonless nights represent the three squires that Lyanna confronted and the three knights that the Knight of the Laughing Tree defeated. 

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A Feast for Crows - Cat Of The Canals

"You lie. You are Cat of the canals, I know you well. Go and sleep, child. On the morrow you must serve."

"All men must serve." And so she did, three days of every thirty. When the moon was black she was no one, a servant of the Many-Faced God in a robe of black and white. She walked beside the kindly man through the fragrant darkness, carrying her iron lantern. She washed the dead, went through their clothes, and counted out their coins. Some days she still helped Umma cook, chopping big white mushrooms and boning fish. But only when the moon was black. The rest of the time she was an orphan girl in a pair of battered boots too big for her feet and a brown cloak with a ragged hem, crying "Mussels and cockles and clams" as she wheeled her barrow through the Ragman's Harbor.

 

The two confrontations - 3 squires, 3 knights - would make two sets representing two months. This is why I believe Lyanna and Howland were on the run for two months before Lyanna is abducted. Two months also fits the timeline of having winter return with the new year as coinciding with Lyanna's abduction as noted in the World Book:

 

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The World of Ice and Fire - The Fall of the Dragons: The Year of the False Spring

And well it might, for with that simple garland of pale blue roses, Rhaegar Targaryen had begun the dance that would rip the Seven Kingdoms apart, bring about his own death and thousands more, and put a welcome new king upon the Iron Throne.

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

 

 

Might I point out that it is logistically awkward to have Rhaegar attend the ten days at the tourney, return to Dragonstone with Elia to attend the birth of Aegon, and then rush right back to intercept Lyanna before she can get to Riverrun?

There is no way Lyanna attended the tourney, returned to Winterfell, and then travelled back down again to Riverrun all before the new year. Think about the distance and time this would entail and yet Rhaegar can go from the tourney to Dragonstone, wait until a child is born, then come back to Kings Landing, gather his men, ride back towards Harrenhal and capture Lyanna. I say, IMPOSSIBLE!

Returning to where I left off with the parallel between Arya and Lyanna... Not only did Arya serve two months at the House of Black and White, she also travelled in the Riverlands with Yoren for roughly two months before they are attacked at an abandoned holdfast on the shore of the Gods Eye not far from Harrenhal (perhaps not even ten leagues). If you recall, Arya escapes a fiery death by going down a tunnel. Try unpacking that metaphor!

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Black Crow said:

Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell,

I think that there's more implied than Harrenhal simply being Lyanna's departure-point or destination. Rather its a comment on Rhaegar's daring, penetrating so deeply into hostile [?] territory, and getting out again safely

I'd agree except for the fact that Harrenhal probably wouldn't be known as a hostile location for Rhaegar.  The scuttlbut seems to be that Lord Whent was Rhaegar's catspaw for the Harrnehal tourney.  So it wouldn't be seen as very daring for Rhaegar to have operated in Whent's territory if it was also believed that When was a catspaw for Rhaegar.  

In addition, if they were at or around the Inn at the Crossroads, they wouldn't be in Harrenhals' territory, they would be in Darry lands.  So still it begs the question, if Lyanna were with Rickard's party, travelling from Winterfell to Riverrun, what was she doing so close to Harrenhal?

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29 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

For example, take Eddard’s comment to Arya that Lyanna’s wildness and willfulness led her to an early grave.  I think many of the posters who lean towards a romantic tale of two star crossed lovers in Lyanna and Rhaegar interpret that to be an acknowledgment by Eddard that Lyanna willingly ran off with Rhaegar.  It was certainly the interpretation that I had for a while.  

 

Rather than Lyanna's wildness and willfulness be interpreted as an illicit romance, might it actually be a nod towards her confrontation with the three squires and involvement with the Knight of the Laughing Tree? That certainly was a dangerous mystery, one that King Aerys wanted to uncover.

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31 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

2.  Harrenhal is the last known place associated with Lyanna.  And she was either traveling towards Harrenhal when she was abducted or she was traveling away from Harrenhal when she was abducted.  

I think you may have passed over my post with my longer explanation for what I think happened, but I might point out that Riverrun is to the south and west of Harrenhal. Visualize the Gods Eye with Harrenhal at the north end. I suspect that "not ten leagues" south along the shore is the same place where Yoren and his Watch recruits - including Arya - were attacked at an abandoned holdfast. If Lyanna was on her way to Brandon's wedding at Riverrun while also being on the run and in hiding from the search parties looking for the KofLT, then she may have naturally followed the shoreline of the Gods Eye south before heading towards Stoney Sept and hid out in the same holdfast. I think Arya's fiery escape down a tunnel is a reversal that is symbolic of Lyanna's abduction.

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

For example, take Eddard’s comment to Arya that Lyanna’s wildness and willfulness led her to an early grave.

Yup, her rash behavior caused her to fall into Rhaegar's hands and Brandon's rash behavior into Aerys's hands.  I doubt there is a romantic story here.

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With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.  But that tale is too well-known to warrant repeating here.

Who were Rhaegar's closest confidents and friends?  A group of six good men?  I'm reminded that Ned took six good men with him to the ToJ.

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40 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I think you may have passed over my post with my longer explanation for what I think happened, but I might point out that Riverrun is to the south and west of Harrenhal. Visualize the Gods Eye with Harrenhal at the north end. I suspect that "not ten leagues" south along the shore is the same place where Yoren and his Watch recruits - including Arya - were attacked at an abandoned holdfast. If Lyanna was on her way to Brandon's wedding at Riverrun while also being on the run and in hiding from the search parties looking for the KofLT, then she may have naturally followed the shoreline of the Gods Eye south before heading towards Stoney Sept and hid out in the same holdfast. I think Arya's fiery escape down a tunnel is a reversal that is symbolic of Lyanna's abduction.

I’m still mulling over your idea that Lyanna may have never left the Harrenhal area after the tourney.  While I’m inclined to think that the bit about Howland and her hiding from Aerys may be a bit of an unnecessary detail, I think there is something to your main point. It would be an awful lot of travel for Lyanna to have come to the Harrenhal tourney only to return to Winterfell only to return to Riverrun for a wedding.

As you stated the Harrenhal tourney had to have been within the last two months, after that things get murky.

I guess the issue for me is what was the sequence of events.

At some point it’s announced that Lyanna is to marry Robert.  At some point after that she hears about Robert’s bastard in the Eyrie and has a conversation with Eddard in Winterfell how Robert won’t be able to change his nature.

Also after this announcement is the Harrenhal tourney.  

At some point it’s announced that Brandon is to marry Catelyn.  At some point after this announcement is Brandon’s duel with Littlefinger in Riverrun, and Brandon’s stay at the Rills with Lady Barbrey.

We also know that at the time of the Harrenhal tourney Brandon was already engaged to Cat.

So how do all of these events criss cross?

ETA: as for the bit about Lyanna’s possible travels,  I think it’s still more probable that if Lyanna were to travel to Riverrun it would have been via the River Road.  And also, I think Riverrun is slightly to the North west of Harrenhal not the south west.  But regardless assuming that Lyanna wouldn’t have been left in Harrenhal on her own (and I don’t think she would have) her party would have probably taken the River Road to get to Riverrun.

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'd agree except for the fact that Harrenhal probably wouldn't be known as a hostile location for Rhaegar.  The scuttlbut seems to be that Lord Whent was Rhaegar's catspaw for the Harrnehal tourney.  So it wouldn't be seen as very daring for Rhaegar to have operated in Whent's territory if it was also believed that When was a catspaw for Rhaegar.  

Possibly, but I'd be wary of overthinking the Harrenhal reference as such. The grand tenor of the remark is effectively that Rhaegar pounced [and I use that word deliberately] in broad daylight.

I also still think that there's more to what Rhaegar was really up to. That passage doesn't explore his object, but the Riverlands were where he eventually ended up but not where he was originally headed, and the tone his seizing of Lyanna smacks of a chance encounter and an opportunistic attack rather than a planned one. 

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The lack of detail is suspicious.

We know Lyanna is travelling from A to B near Harrenhal.

Since she was the daughter of Lord and about to marry, she would not be travelling alone, would she?

Who accompanied her and what happened to them?

Rhaegar and six of his friends show up and snatch Lyanna.

They take Lyanna with them and leave some or all of Lyanna's group alive.  If they had killed off Lyanna's group, nobody would have known it was Rhaegar.

That smells a bit like a setup, doesn't it?

Is Brandon the most likely person to go after Lyanna? He's closest in terms of location, but one would expect either Lord Rickard or Robert Baratheon to act.

As Rhaegar and his six companions may be an inversion to Ned and his six wraits, who are the inversions to the three KG at the tower of joy? Lord Rickard, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully?

Is Lyanna's abduction an attempt to rat them out, and Brandon messes up? 

Maybe not related: did Bran from the future warg Howland at the ToJ, and Howland is missing since, because is in a Hodor state of mind?

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28 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I’m still mulling over your idea that Lyanna may have never left the Harrenhal area after the tourney.  While I’m inclined to think that the bit about Howland and her hiding from Aerys may be a bit of an unnecessary detail, I think there is something to your main point. It would be an awful lot of travel for Lyanna to have come to the Harrenhal tourney only to return to Winterfell only to return to Riverrun for a wedding.

As you stated the Harrenhal tourney had to have been within the last two months, after that things get murky.

I guess the issue for me is what was the sequence of events.

At some point it’s announced that Lyanna is to marry Robert.  At some point after that she hears about Robert’s bastard in the Eyrie and has a conversation with Eddard in Winterfell how Robert won’t be able to change his nature.

Also after this announcement is the Harrenhal tourney.  

At some point it’s announced that Brandon is to marry Catelyn.  At some point after this announcement is Brandon’s duel with Littlefinger in Riverrun, and Brandon’s stay at the Rills with Lady Barbrey.

We also know that at the time of the Harrenhal tourney Brandon was already engaged to Cat.

So how do all of these events criss cross?

ETA: as for the bit about Lyanna’s possible travels,  I think it’s still more probable that if Lyanna were to travel to Riverrun it would have been via the River Road.  And also, I think Riverrun is slightly to the North west of Harrenhal not the south west.  But regardless assuming that Lyanna wouldn’t have been left in Harrenhal on her own (and I don’t think she would have) her party would have probably taken the River Road to get to Riverrun.

 

I can only offer up as evidence the routes that others have taken. 

Yoren left Kings Landing with his Watch recruits from Kings Landing for the Wall, yet ended up taking a route on the west side of the Gods Eye.

After Ned married Catelyn at Riverrun he took a route heading to Stoney Sept, then (presumably) took a ferry across the Gods Eye to meet up with Jon Arryn's main force. I say "presumably" because of the name of the crossing mentioned when Dunk and Egg crossed the Gods Eye is "Ned's Ferry".

Quote

 

The Mystery Knight

"—before I was born," Ser Glendon finished, "but in me, he lives again." He slammed his sword back into its scabbard. "I'll show you all at Whitewalls, when I claim the dragon's egg."

The next day proved the truth of Ser Kyle's prophecy. Ned's ferry was nowise large enough to accomodate all those who wished to cross, so Lords Costayne and Shawney must go first, with their tails. That required several trips, each taking more than an hour. There were the mudflats to contend with, horses and wagons to be gotten down the planks, loaded on the boat, and unloaded again across the lake. The two lords slowed matters even further when they got into a shouting match over precedence. Shawney was the elder, but Costayne held himself to be better born.

 

The Inn at the Crossing is located along the Trident between Harrenhal and Riverrun, so this does seem like a natural stopping point and place where Brandon could have "heard".

You may be correct about direction. This map does show Riverrun as being west of Harrenhal. Riverrun should be the triangular shape between forks of the Trident. Stoney Sept then would be southeast of Riverrun, but slightly southwest of Harrenhal. Actually, Riverrun, Harrenhal, and Stoney Sept make a kind of triangle shape as well.

 

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