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Climate: Il fait VRAIMENT CHAUD (fka un petit)


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8 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Humans are one of the most renewable resources on Earth, nowadays

 

That is one of the most ghastly things I've ever seen said in support of what is supposed to be a romantic notion- that life should be about more than just living. It's like you've crashed two entirely opposing viewpoints into each other: there's more to life than the struggle and therefore people don't matter? Come on.

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17 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Bottom line is: it'll take far more than what many advocate to be truly effective - but then, we're still at a point where any talk of population control or reduction is seen as peak Nazism.

We need to embrace massive, widespread, purgeing!

https://youtu.be/XzFCDqKE4yA

 

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Still very much a work in progress for me...

...but I am coming to strongly suspect the world is looking at a major population implosion by the end of this century.

Some of the things that leap out at me:

US population is right at the 'replacement level' - enough to keep the population steady. Actual population increase the past couple of decades has come entirely from immigration, legal and illegal. 

China is facing a demographic nightmare. Decades of the 'one child' policy has created a large number of older folks and a small group of younger people. Authoritarianism is apparently a bit of a bummer for having babies.

Japan is only slightly better off than China - aging populace, shrinking numbers of younger folks.

Europe's population is also in slow decline. East of Germany, the decline isn't slow - it's a freaking abyss. Russians might actually be something of an endangered species by the end of the century, especially with the Ukraine war. I saw a couple of reports claiming that something like half of the women in Eastern Europe (presumably including Russia) had AIDS. Don't know how much credence to give that, but it is not good if anywhere near true.

The Latino (Mexican/South American) populace looks to be just barely above the replacement or steady state level - but that is one of the areas I need to look at more closely.

Africa is one of the few global regions still experiencing genuine population growth - but it might be tapering off. That's another area warranting more research.

Taken together, I figure global population could decline by something on the order of half (calculation needs refinement) by the end of the century, owing to a combination of declining fertility and older folks dying off. 

 

 

 

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Perhaps based solely on the way fertility rates are moving, by the end of the century the population would only be substantially reduced from whatever peak might be reached in the next 30 years. But that assumes shit doesn't hit several fans, the biggest ones being both the natural effects of climate change and the likely conflict that will result, which could cause a major die off and the population could be drastically reduced.

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1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

. I saw a couple of reports claiming that something like half of the women in Eastern Europe (presumably including Russia) had AIDS. Don't know how much credence to give that, but it is not good if anywhere near true.

 

That cannot possibly be true. It wouldn't be some obscure report, it'd be a headline global crisis. Certainly can't find anything indicating even close to that in a quick google.

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On 10/16/2022 at 4:57 AM, Luzifer's right hand said:

It was also an insanely effective protest as it got far more media attention than any other climate related news in recent years.

I guess the thing I am questioning is this definition of effectiveness. Yes, they got international media attention, but what does that actually do for their cause? Did the protest result in anyone in power acting differently with respect to climate change? I very much doubt it. Similarly, I don't think it caused the masses to change their behavior -- the reaction of most people was to inquire about the state of the painting, not to buy an electric car or insulate their house or any of the things individuals can do to slow greenhouse gas emissions.

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29 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I guess the thing I am questioning is this definition of effectiveness. Yes, they got international media attention, but what does that actually do for their cause? Did the protest result in anyone in power acting differently with respect to climate change? I very much doubt it. Similarly, I don't think it caused the masses to change their behavior -- the reaction of most people was to inquire about the state of the painting, not to buy an electric car or insulate their house or any of the things individuals can do to slow greenhouse gas emissions.

The people that don't care now will never care anyway. The optimists will keep smoking their hopium. The companies and the CEOs will keep maximizing profits. It is about what makes the people protesting feel better. As I said I don't believe that our civilization is capable of any meaningful response to climate change anyway. If protesting that way makes life more bearable for the people involved more power to them. Feeling the hate and disdain of people you disagree with tends to be a bonus. You can feel superior because people value items more than the environment and the message. 

Edited by Luzifer's right hand
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11 hours ago, Ran said:

@ThinkerX

Is there some reason that the UN's annual World Population Projection is not something you're looking at? They've published the 2022 revision. 

I was not aware of that. Thank you for the link.

There are two main starting points or sources for my efforts, such as they are.

The first was a breakdown of US population by 'USA Facts' which pops up on my Facebook Feed. That site is straight statistical info derived directly from US government sources, almost devoid of commentary, hence I deem it more reliable than many other sources. Looking over their graphs and charts they presented, it looks pretty clear that without immigration - legal and illegal - the population of the US would be in decline by something on the order of 0.5% per year. 

They point out the population of the US is 'going gray' - the average age is much higher than in decades past. This trend, from what I have read, seems to apply to Western Europe, Japan, and the rest of the first world. Combined with this is a tendency towards fewer children - women waiting longer before having babies, and couples increasingly opting for one or two children, a smaller number than in prior decades.

They gave a breakdown of...'population change by ethnic group,' but that is a hot button topic on this site, so...

The second is a series of reports and videos that started appearing on my Facebook about a year back describing the catastrophic effects of China's 'one child policy.,' with possible consequences including a breakup of mainland China. That claim is suspect, but the underlying issue looks to be legit.

My preliminary attempt at a calculation runs like this:

1) About half the population in the developed world is over the age of 40. People over the age of 40 have very few, if any offspring.

2) In fifty years, the current 'over 40' population will be gone. Aka, dead.

3) The 'under 40' populace needs to have two children per couple just to keep the numbers level, with every third or fourth couple having at least one additional child for actual population growth. Best I can tell, the developed world is falling short of that mark.

4) Hence, IF the above points are true, and the situation does not change, then in fifty years the populace of the developed world drops by about half. The decline in China is likely to be even steeper, and Russia, well...not good.

5) That leaves the likes of Africa, South Asia, and maybe South America where population actually continues to grow. However, those regions are not exactly healthy (I have no difficulty envisioning devastating plagues claiming large percentages of the populaces) and at least some of those areas will get slammed hard by Climate Change. 

Again, this is nothing more than initial mucking about with the numbers.

 

 

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So Global South now also encompasses most of the south of the north too. How much further north is the global north going to be pushed?

I'm happy [most of] New Zealand has been cut off that photo. Don't want too many people saying, hey, lets go to that all green country down there at the bottom and get away from the hordes who will migrate north to avoid death. You just know who it is that will want to escape to the southern sanctuary, the selfish, greedy bastards who refused to do anything about the problem when it was possible to do something about it.

 

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3 hours ago, Zorral said:

 

I have no difficulty envisioning *low* temperatures for southern California, Arizona, Texas, and the 'Old South' in the 100-degree range for periods lasting 3-5 months in the not-so-distant future - as in two or three presidential elections. (and daily high temps frequently topping 120 F.)

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Surely the point is less whether the map is reasonable or not and more that people heavily involved in the worlds finance markets are treating it as reasonable. Especially when open fascism justified by climate crisis has been the glaringly obvious end point of climate denialism for at least the last 5-10 years.

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4 hours ago, karaddin said:

Surely the point is less whether the map is reasonable or not and more that people heavily involved in the worlds finance markets are treating it as reasonable. Especially when open fascism justified by climate crisis has been the glaringly obvious end point of climate denialism for at least the last 5-10 years.

Just so I'm not misinterpreting, you're saying that people feeling the dire urgency of needing to do address climate change are turning to fascism as a way to forcibly put down the climate denialism that has prevented effective action over the last decade or so?

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48 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Just so I'm not misinterpreting, you're saying that people feeling the dire urgency of needing to do address climate change are turning to fascism as a way to forcibly put down the climate denialism that has prevented effective action over the last decade or so?

No they are are getting ready to live as well as possible once the biosphere starts collapsing(well it probably started  during the industrial revolution if we look at it properly. If people survive it will be an interesting field of research in the far future I feel). The really rich who plan for the future have mostly concluded that it is too late but that does not mean that they can't live a nice and safe life. How to keep the security apperatus under control is the main problem I think. Fascism can help with that.

Edited by Luzifer's right hand
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3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Just so I'm not misinterpreting, you're saying that people feeling the dire urgency of needing to do address climate change are turning to fascism as a way to forcibly put down the climate denialism that has prevented effective action over the last decade or so?

Err no, that position is not remotely consistent with my posts in this thread urging compassion for desperate young people.

I'm saying that the same people that have been denying climate change is happening for the last 30 years will smoothly pivot to fascism justified by the climate crisis the instant they stop pretending it's not happening. Because for a lot of them, mostly those with power, they haven't believed in the denialism for a long time - it just serves their interests to play along and take advantage every step of the way. They'll pull the same trick Trump displayed many times of just brazenly lying and claim they never denied it and just repeat that lie until people go along with it.

My shitty country has been breaking the ground on a bunch of the policies that are the forerunners of it, showing just how awful you can be with your immigration policies etc.

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2 hours ago, karaddin said:

Err no, that position is not remotely consistent with my posts in this thread urging compassion for desperate young people.

I'm saying that the same people that have been denying climate change is happening for the last 30 years will smoothly pivot to fascism justified by the climate crisis the instant they stop pretending it's not happening. Because for a lot of them, mostly those with power, they haven't believed in the denialism for a long time - it just serves their interests to play along and take advantage every step of the way. They'll pull the same trick Trump displayed many times of just brazenly lying and claim they never denied it and just repeat that lie until people go along with it.

My shitty country has been breaking the ground on a bunch of the policies that are the forerunners of it, showing just how awful you can be with your immigration policies etc.

I think this is a good projection.

I'm not someone who thinks that climate change will be civilization ending (though I think it's foolish to entirely discount this possibility), but I do believe a whole lot of governments will start looking like DR Congo or even Somalia.

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Left out here - the 'insanity' or 'conspiracy' factor.

 

When the Climate Change deniers are finally forced to admit Climate Change is real and human caused, a large fraction of these people will insist the human cause is deliberate, part of a 'deep state' plot to 'impose a one world order' or some such. Should they attain power, these people will go on a witch hunt for the perpetrators.

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