Varys and the Wildfire Plot

[Lucia Targaryen]

I have so many questions about Varys and the Wildfire Plot, namely did he know.

On the one hand Varys is not omnipotent. GRRM confirmed that Varys did not know about the plan to marry Viserys to Arianne (https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/6539).

On the other, how could he not know? The king ordering wildfire to be placed around the city doesn’t seem like something that could be kept a secret from Varys. But that raises further questions, namely why hasn’t he done anything about it?

Varys is a survivor so why would he be living on top of a bomb for all these years? Wildfire grows more volatile as it ages and it’s been down there for more than a decade. Also telling Robert and the others about Aerys’ plan to burn down King’s Landing would be a good way to ensure his pardon and demonstrate his loyalty to the new regime. Plus he wants Aegon to rule so why would Varys allow the capital to potentially be destroyed? 

Any thoughts?

[Loose Bolt]

That wildfire would be very useful if "wrong" candidate would gain the throne. For instance if team Blackfyre really wants to get rid of Dany and her dragons.

Another possibility is that wf is deadman's handle for Varys. Or if Varys thinks that he had really lost the game (of thrones) he would burn down King's Landing.

[The hairy bear]

Very good question.

It would be hard to believe that Varys didn't knew. From ASOS:

”My Sworn Brothers were all away, you see, but Aerys liked to keep me close. I was my father’s son, so he did not trust me. He wanted me where Varys could watch me, day and night. So I heard it all.” He remembered how Rossart’s eyes would shine when he unrolled his maps to show where the substance must be placed. Garigus and Belis were the same.

Jaime also says that Lord Chelsted discovered the plot because "he was not utterly stupid". And the caches of wildfire were hidden in underground chambers and in the passages under the Red keep, which is clearly an zone that Varys knows and oversees very closely.

It's very hard to speculate about Varys because his ultimate goal is inscrutable from us, but it would seem that:

1. Varys was OK with Aerys blowing up King's Landing. It's notable that after Tywin is allowed to enter the city, he disappears and made no attempt to evacuate from the city Aerys or Rhaegar's kids (which is something that he could probably have done without much difficulty).
2. The fact that he didn't reveal where the hidden caches were after the war would suggest that he plans to use them to his own benefit at some point.

[Darth Sidious]

Varys doesn’t know everything. Even if he did, maybe his desired ending justifies the means. Say KAIII burns the city, the rebels, and himself. The heir, Prince Viserys, is safe on Dragonstone. They can always spin it and blame the rebels. 

[Lord Varys]

It is out of the question that Varys didn't know about the plan. By the time of the Sack everybody on the council should have known or suspected. That said - that's not the same as him knowing where exactly most of the wildfire was stored. Thanks to Jaime's decision to murder the men involved with the details of the plot nobody seems to know where most of the missing caches are.

But then - the assumption that most of the wildfire hasn't been found and burned on the Blackwater at this point isn't very well founded. They found the caches hidden beneath the Great Sept and the Dragonpit, which were two of the most prominent places where wildfire was hidden.

And we can also be pretty sure that Varys either removed or carefully controls the wildfire which was hidden beneath the Red Keep. Aerys II could have never placed caches of wildfire beneath the castle without Varys knowing. And it makes no sense that he would serve at the Red Keep if he knew that, as the years passed, the chances would get ever higher that the wildfire would explode.

If there are any caches left beneath the Red Keep we should thus assume that Varys had them under control, i.e. in caverns with sand, like they are kept in the Guildhall, so that accidents are not likely to occur.

But I'm not exactly holding my breath that there is any wildfire left beneath the Red Keep.

I also don't think the chances are good that the city will burn, to be honest. Winter has come, and whatever wildfire is still hidden in the city must be hidden in deep caverns and cellars most of the city have no clue even exist. If stuff down there explodes and the city is caked in snow - as it will be in winter - any fires that might break out are not likely to spread.

17 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

That wildfire would be very useful if "wrong" candidate would gain the throne. For instance if team Blackfyre really wants to get rid of Dany and her dragons.

Another possibility is that wf is deadman's handle for Varys. Or if Varys thinks that he had really lost the game (of thrones) he would burn down King's Landing.

I could see Varys burning down the Red Keep to get rid of a problematic pretender, but I don't see him burning the city. Not that either is likely to succeed in winter.

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Varys was OK with Aerys blowing up King's Landing. It's notable that after Tywin is allowed to enter the city, he disappears and made no attempt to evacuate from the city Aerys or Rhaegar's kids (which is something that he could probably have done without much difficulty).

Chances are not that bad that Varys counted on Jaime to deal with Rossart and Aerys. The man convinced Barristan to rediscover his Targaryen allegiance without Barristan ever realizing he was played ... he certainly could nudge Jaime in the right direction, too.

9 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The fact that he didn't reveal where the hidden caches were after the war would suggest that he plans to use them to his own benefit at some point.

That would presuppose he actually knew where they were hidden ... which he may not have. That said, the entire wildfire plot is silly and not very well thought through by George. Jaime only murders the ruling body of the alchemists ... but it is inconceivable that Rossart and Garigus and the other master alchemists all moved the caches of wildfire around by themselves. They would have employed workers - other alchemists, acolytes, common workers, etc. Are we to believe none of those men survived the Sack? Or that they didn't know what they were moving around the city in the dead of night and in secrecy?

Neither of that is very likely, meaning the entire scenario that nobody should know that a lot of wildfire was hidden in the city isn't very believable. One can, perhaps, buy it that some more obscure hiding places in Flea Bottom or in some cellars in other quarters of the city might have been forgotten or overlooked, but whoever moved the wildfire to the Great Sept or the Dragonpit should have never forgotten that. Both would have been very strange jobs. I mean, anyone involved in that thing would wonder why the hell they moving stuff to the ruins of the Dragonpit (where nobody lived) or what the hell was going on when stuff was smuggled into the Great Sept. In fact, I don't even understand how this could have even worked. Were the High Septon and his people not wondering what the hell the Mad King's men were doing beneath their feet? Does nobody in the Great Sept what's in the cellars of the building?

[Mourning Star]

48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That would presuppose he actually knew where they were hidden ... which he may not have. That said, the entire wildfire plot is silly and not very well thought through by George. Jaime only murders the ruling body of the alchemists ... but it is inconceivable that Rossart and Garigus and the other master alchemists all moved the caches of wildfire around by themselves. They would have employed workers - other alchemists, acolytes, common workers, etc. Are we to believe none of those men survived the Sack? Or that they didn't know what they were moving around the city in the dead of night and in secrecy?

I agree with much of what you said... however...

If only someone in King's Landing with the ear of the king had knowledge of the cities secret paths and a plethora of manpower (little bird power?) that had no tongues and could be relied on to be silent? 

And according to Jaime, Varys was there when the plotting was done:

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He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.
"Everything was done in the utmost secrecy by a handful of master pyromancers. They did not even trust their own acolytes to help. The queen's eyes had been closed for years, and Rhaegar was busy marshaling an army. But Aerys's new mace-and-dagger Hand was not utterly stupid, and with Rossart, Belis, and Garigus coming and going night and day, he became suspicious. Chelsted, that was his name, Lord Chelsted." It had come back to him suddenly, with the telling. "I'd thought the man craven, but the day he confronted Aerys he found some courage somewhere. He did all he could to dissuade him. He reasoned, he jested, he threatened, and finally he begged. When that failed he took off his chain of office and flung it down on the floor. Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer. The man who had cooked Lord Rickard Stark in his own armor. And all the time, I stood by the foot of the Iron Throne in my white plate, still as a corpse, guarding my liege and all his sweet secrets.
"My Sworn Brothers were all away, you see, but Aerys liked to keep me close. I was my father's son, so he did not trust me. He wanted me where Varys could watch me, day and night. So I heard it all." He remembered how Rossart's eyes would shine when he unrolled his maps to show where the substance must be placed. Garigus and Belis were the same. "Rhaegar met Robert on the Trident, and you know what happened there. When the word reached court, Aerys packed the queen off to Dragonstone with Prince Viserys. Princess Elia would have gone as well, but he forbade it. Somehow he had gotten it in his head that Prince Lewyn must have betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident, but he thought he could keep Dorne loyal so long as he kept Elia and Aegon by his side. The traitors want my city, I heard him tell Rossart, but I'll give them naught but ashes. Let Robert be king over charred bones and cooked meat. The Targaryens never bury their dead, they burn them. Aerys meant to have the greatest funeral pyre of them all. Though if truth be told, I do not believe he truly expected to die. Like Aerion Brightfire before him, Aerys thought the fire would transform him . . . that he would rise again, reborn as a dragon, and turn all his enemies to ash.
"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him.
"It fell to me to hold the Red Keep, but I knew we were lost. I sent to Aerys asking his leave to make terms. My man came back with a royal command. 'Bring me your father's head, if you are no traitor.' Aerys would have no yielding. Lord Rossart was with him, my messenger said. I knew what that meant.
"When I came on Rossart, he was dressed as a common man-at-arms, hurrying to a postern gate. I slew him first. Then I slew Aerys, before he could find someone else to carry his message to the pyromancers. Days later, I hunted down the others and slew them as well. Belis offered me gold, and Garigus wept for mercy. Well, a sword's more merciful than fire, but I don't think Garigus much appreciated the kindness I showed him."

A Storm of Swords - Jaime V

Varys was always there, Jaime was kept close where he learned of the wildfire plot so that Varys could watch him.

Saying, "the one time he should have heeded Varys", implies Aerys did listen to him other times.

I would argue that not only did Varys know about the wildfire, but that he was a conspirator and possibly even the origin of the idea entirely. His army of little birds provides exactly the type of secret workforce needed to place wildfire all over the city without anyone knowing, and as you pointed out, he's said nothing about it since.

At the time of the Sack, young Griff had not yet been born, and so there could not possibly be a plot to install him as King.

So what is Varys doing in King's Landing working for Aerys? One has to suspect he had an ulterior motive, perhaps something as straightforward as vengeance.

Personally, I am unconvinced by Varys's claims that he cares about the common people at all.

It's possible that this entire little Doom scenario was his concoction to begin with, a man who changes his face, a man who is... no one.

"The king, the priest, the rich man—who lives and who dies? Who will the swordsman obey? It's a riddle without an answer, or rather, too many answers. All depends on the man with the sword."
"And yet he is no one," Varys said. 

[Lord Varys]

40 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I agree with much of what you said... however...

If only someone in King's Landing with the ear of the king had knowledge of the cities secret paths and a plethora of manpower (little bird power?) that had no tongues and could be relied on to be silent? 

And according to Jaime, Varys was there when the plotting was done:

Varys was always there, Jaime was kept close where he learned of the wildfire plot so that Varys could watch him.

Saying, "the one time he should have heeded Varys", implies Aerys did listen to him other times.

I would argue that not only did Varys know about the wildfire, but that he was a conspirator and possibly even the origin of the idea entirely. His army of little birds provides exactly the type of secret workforce needed to place wildfire all over the city without anyone knowing, and as you pointed out, he's said nothing about it since.

At the time of the Sack, young Griff had not yet been born, and so there could not possibly be a plot to install him as King.

So what is Varys doing in King's Landing working for Aerys? One has to suspect he had an ulterior motive, perhaps something as straightforward as vengeance.

Personally, I am unconvinced by Varys's claims that he cares about the common people at all.

It's possible that this entire little Doom scenario was his concoction to begin with, a man who changes his face, a man who is... no one.

"The king, the priest, the rich man—who lives and who dies? Who will the swordsman obey? It's a riddle without an answer, or rather, too many answers. All depends on the man with the sword."
"And yet he is no one," Varys said. 

Varys doesn't really have an army of little birds - he orders another fifty birds in AGoT, indicating he may have in total about a hundred or so, not hundreds.

That said, technically the birds could help move things about the city unseen, but we are talking thousands of wildfire jars here being handled by preteen children. That doesn't seem like a realistic scenario. They would need carts and grown-ups to move the stuff about and, especially, to ensure folks on the streets would allow the children to go about their business. The denizens of Flea Bottom, say, would not stay away from pale mute children handling potentially valuable things.

In that sense, Varys' birds are more likely to complicate things than to enable Aerys II to keep this entire enterprise secret.

If I had to guess how the wildfire was distributed and hidden I'd say the City Watch and other men-at-arms must have been involved, with some of the operations - especially at the Great Sept - being done behind a smokescreen of 'checking and/or strengthening the defenses of the building' or something along those lines. Meaning there would have been men-at-arms and workers doing or pretending to do something else while others brought in the wildfire.

But all that would mean that many people knew what (or at least that something) was going on.

Insofar as Varys' motivations are concerned, there is ample evidence that his ultimate goal being peace for 'the children' is more genuine than any vague speculation about him possibly having different motives. And if he goal was to burn down the city then he would have done so already. Insofar as vengeance is concerned it also strikes one as overkill to burn down an entire city just for 'vengeance'. The average Kingslander never did anything to Varys or his friends/family. If he had issues with House Targaryen he could just burn down the Red Keep ... and could have done that while both Aerys II and Rhaegar and their families were inside the castle.

Varys is also pretty much the antithesis of the Faceless Men. He was never in Braavos as far as we know, nor is able to do as much as a fraction of the things a Faceless Man can do. Varys is a great mummer ... but he is nothing more than that. The Faceless Men are great mummers (because they train with them) and sorcerers. If Varys had the powers a Faceless Man he would have long ago taken over Westeros simply by impersonating Robert Baratheon or Aerys II.

[Loose Bolt]

I am wondering how Varys outlived Aerys 2. After all he should have many enemies and only thing kept him alive was Aerys II. So as soon that king was dead Varys should have meet people like this message to Varys

[Mithras]

I think the wildfire plot is a retcon.

[Mourning Star]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys is also pretty much the antithesis of the Faceless Men. He was never in Braavos as far as we know, nor is able to do as much as a fraction of the things a Faceless Man can do. Varys is a great mummer ... but he is nothing more than that. The Faceless Men are great mummers (because they train with them) and sorcerers. If Varys had the powers a Faceless Man he would have long ago taken over Westeros simply by impersonating Robert Baratheon or Aerys II.

I’m a little confused here… I understand thinking he’s just a spymaster, but antithesis? How so?

Varys is literally the first person we see change his face. I would contend that no amount of makeup or mundane disguise will create stubble Ned can feel with his hand. So either Varys’s whole eunuch persona is a disguise, or he was wearing a different face.

Varys did claim to have been to Braavos:

Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

Although, this obviously calls into question his whole story, since there are no slaves in Braavos.

But, as you point out, Faceless Men do train with mummers.

And the loss of his privates? That’s exactly what Arya is told will happen…

"You should. Stay, and the Many-Faced God will take your ears, your nose, your tongue. He will take your sad grey eyes that have seen so much. He will take your hands, your feet, your arms and legs, your private parts. He will take your hopes and dreams, your loves and hates. Those who enter His service must give up all that makes them who they are. Can you do that?" 

If I’m being honest, I think the real question is if Varys is still a faceless man, or was he a child who got the training (like Arya) and ended up leaving/thrown out (like Arya will perhaps?) because he didn’t give up his loves and hates.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Insofar as Varys' motivations are concerned, there is ample evidence that his ultimate goal being peace for 'the children' is more genuine than any vague speculation about him possibly having different motives.

Is there though? What actual evidence is there that Varys’s is motivated by helping the common people?

I mean we have his words, but that isn’t evidence. When has Varys’s taken a risk to protect anyone of his own volition? What has he sacrificed for others?

Using children as spies, let alone ripping out their tongues, is hardly the behavior of one helping them. 

What has Varys’s ever done to help the common people? 

He claims it’s all to put young Griff on the throne, his good king, but as this thread highlights, he’s been messing around in King’s Landing long before that plot could possibly have been hatched.

At the end of the day, it is very hard to answer these questions when we don’t know who Varys even is…

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Dwarfs are a jape of the gods . . . but men make eunuchs. Who cut you, Varys? When and why? Who are you, truly?"

The eunuch's smile never flickered, but his eyes glittered with something that was not laughter.

[Lord Varys]

46 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I’m a little confused here… I understand thinking he’s just a spymaster, but antithesis? How so?

Varys is literally the first person we see change his face. I would contend that no amount of makeup or mundane disguise will create stubble Ned can feel with his hand. So either Varys’s whole eunuch persona is a disguise, or he was wearing a different face.

Varys knows how to properly use make-up and fake beards. There is no magic to this.

46 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Varys did claim to have been to Braavos:

Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

Yes, okay, when he was part of the mummer show. But we have no indication he spent a longer period of time in Braavos after he had been sold to the sorcerer in Myr. From Myr he moved directly to Pentos.

46 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Although, this obviously calls into question his whole story, since there are no slaves in Braavos.

It rather calls into question that Varys' show went to Braavos at all. Although that's not a big oversight. If I were to tell the story of my childhood mummer show's tours I'd also not bother explaining that we couldn't go to Braavos because there are no slaves in Braavos.

Also, we have to keep in mind that the show's master could have deceived the Braavosi authorities pretending there were no slaves among his people.

46 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

But, as you point out, Faceless Men do train with mummers.

And the loss of his privates? That’s exactly what Arya is told will happen…

"You should. Stay, and the Many-Faced God will take your ears, your nose, your tongue. He will take your sad grey eyes that have seen so much. He will take your hands, your feet, your arms and legs, your private parts. He will take your hopes and dreams, your loves and hates. Those who enter His service must give up all that makes them who they are. Can you do that?" 

If I’m being honest, I think the real question is if Varys is still a faceless man, or was he a child who got the training (like Arya) and ended up leaving/thrown out (like Arya will perhaps?) because he didn’t give up his loves and hates.

I very much doubt the Faceless Men allow their trainees to leave when they know how to change faces. Else we would have stories about kings and princes who can change faces in this manner because such rogue Faceless Men would have set themselves up as kings and princes.

Again, if Varys had Faceless Men training he would not bother with the silly effeminate eunuch personality. He would have become Robert Baratheon or Aerys II.

46 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Is there though? What actual evidence is there that Varys’s is motivated by helping the common people?

I mean we have his words, but that isn’t evidence. When has Varys’s taken a risk to protect anyone of his own volition? What has he sacrificed for others?

Using children as spies, let alone ripping out their tongues, is hardly the behavior of one helping them. 

What has Varys’s ever done to help the common people? 

He claims it’s all to put young Griff on the throne, his good king, but as this thread highlights, he’s been messing around in King’s Landing long before that plot could possibly have been hatched.

At the end of the day, it is very hard to answer these questions when we don’t know who Varys even is…

When we talk his motivations we have to look at what he says he is trying to do. He may not be particularly success at doing what he wants to do, but that's a different topic. The idea that he has any connections to the Faceless Men cannot really be supported by the text, the idea that he has some kind of common good ulterior motive, on the other, has a sufficient basis of textual evidence.

7 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

I am wondering how Varys outlived Aerys 2. After all he should have many enemies and only thing kept him alive was Aerys II. So as soon that king was dead Varys should have meet people like this message to Varys

I guess Varys was part of a general pardon issued by Robert after the Sack. He pardoned all the people on Aerys' council who survived the Sack, so Varys was just lucky there, I guess. And one imagines that somebody told Robert that Varys was very good at his job and, as a foreigner, could be counted upon to serve the new king as impartially and loyally as he had served the old king.

[Mourning Star]

47 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys knows how to properly use make-up and fake beards. There is no magic to this.

There is no mundane way to make false stubble one can rub and not tell the difference.

If you want to say this is an oversight by the author, fine, I disagree.

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Yes, okay, when he was part of the mummer show. But we have no indication he spent a longer period of time in Braavos after he had been sold to the sorcerer in Myr. From Myr he moved directly to Pentos.

I’m suggesting the “mummers” are a euphemism for the Faceless Men and he was neither a slave nor sold.

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It rather calls into question that Varys' show went to Braavos at all. Although that's not a big oversight. If I were to tell the story of my childhood mummer show's tours I'd also not bother explaining that we couldn't go to Braavos because there are no slaves in Braavos.

I think we can question everything about his story… that’s kind of my point, it isn’t really evidence any more than Jaqen Hagar’s backstory was evidence of who he really was.

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Also, we have to keep in mind that the show's master could have deceived the Braavosi authorities pretending there were no slaves among his people.

Certainly possible. There aren’t slaves in Westeros either, so maybe they lied there as well… or maybe Varys wasn’t a slave at all. It’s very hard for us to know.

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I very much doubt the Faceless Men allow their trainees to leave when they know how to change faces. Else we would have stories about kings and princes who can change faces in this manner because such rogue Faceless Men would have set themselves up as kings and princes.

We don’t know at all how easy the face changing actually is, or if there is a cost… presumably nothing is that easy.

I would point out that Illyrio has basically set himself up as a king. He’s probably richer than some kings, and certainly seems to play at being a kingmaker.

Again however, this comes back to motive. The original faceless man didn’t seem to want to set himself up as a king, nor does it seem the Faceless Men do now. I don’t think everyone wants to be a king.

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Again, if Varys had Faceless Men training he would not bother with the silly effeminate eunuch personality. He would have become Robert Baratheon or Aerys II.

Maybe you would… but it isn’t clear a faceless man could get away with that indefinitely nor that this is Varys’s goal.

Its certainly easy to see how hereditary power might lose some appeal if one can’t have children.

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When we talk his motivations we have to look at what he says he is trying to do.

We certainly should look at it… but we also shouldn’t believe it out of hand.

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He may not be particularly success at doing what he wants to do, but that's a different topic.

We really don’t know what he wants to do.

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The idea that he has any connections to the Faceless Men cannot really be supported by the text, the idea that he has some kind of common good ulterior motive, on the other, has a sufficient basis of textual evidence.

Clearly I disagree, but feel free to provide any of that textual evidence for his caring about the common good… I really don’t see anything besides his word, which is frankly not worth much of anything. 

Pycell says the same thing for instance, that he “serves the realm”, it is equally unbelievable.

Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?"
Varys smiled thinly. "Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever could you doubt that?

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

There is no mundane way to make false stubble one can rub and not tell the difference.

If you want to say this is an oversight by the author, fine, I disagree.

That - as well as saying that Ned wasn't exactly at his best when being visited by Varys in his cell.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

I’m suggesting the “mummers” are a euphemism for the Faceless Men and he was neither a slave nor sold.

Well, then you go against crucial paragraphs of the book in favor of your own pet theories.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

I think we can question everything about his story… that’s kind of my point, it isn’t really evidence any more than Jaqen Hagar’s backstory was evidence of who he really was.

For Jaqen we do have crucial hints that he actually is a Faceless Man - if we had gotten scenes that Varys could change his face in their manner, I certainly would be more in doubt about Varys' backstory.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Certainly possible. There aren’t slaves in Westeros either, so maybe they lied there as well… or maybe Varys wasn’t a slave at all. It’s very hard for us to know.

Both Pycelle and Varys tell us he was a slave in the past, so that seems to be pretty well covered. Varys is just a guy - he cannot really hide his past from people with sufficient resources to uncover who and what he was.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

We don’t know at all how easy the face changing actually is, or if there is a cost… presumably nothing is that easy.

Arya gets glued a face on her head in ADwD. She doesn't yet know how to do it on her own, but nothing indicates it is all that hard to do this.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

I would point out that Illyrio has basically set himself up as a king. He’s probably richer than some kings, and certainly seems to play at being a kingmaker.

Not really. Yes, Illyrio is very rich, but he is just one of many rich guys in Pentos, sharing the rule of that city with his fellow magisters.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Again however, this comes back to motive. The original faceless man didn’t seem to want to set himself up as a king, nor does it seem the Faceless Men do now. I don’t think everyone wants to be a king.

Oh, no, the Faceless Men as such did and would not set themselves up as kings and princes. But folks who learned with them and were allowed to leave for this or that reason might. The fact that this apparently never happened indicates that the House of Black and White knows how to control - and destroy, if necessary - all the people who join their sect.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Maybe you would… but it isn’t clear a faceless man could get away with that indefinitely nor that this is Varys’s goal.

Varys wants to install a king of his own making, that much is clear. He wouldn't need to do this if he could be the king of his own making by impersonating a king who already sits the throne, i.e. either Aerys II or Robert Baratheon.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Its certainly easy to see how hereditary power might lose some appeal if one can’t have children.

If Varys were to impersonate a king who already has children he could just as well hand power over to them in the future.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

We certainly should look at it… but we also shouldn’t believe it out of hand.

We don't believe it out of hand - we believe stories told by Varys if they fit the criteria the author apparently introduced to indicate when he is telling the truth - when his voice gets deeper and drops all effeminate pretense. It doesn't strike us as very likely that this kind of behavior indicates that Varys is telling a big lie. And we got that kind of thing when Varys told Tyrion about his castration and when he told Kevan about the Aegon plan.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

We really don’t know what he wants to do.

We know he wants to install Aegon as king and he thinks that this youth is going to be the perfect king because he has been prepared for that role.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Clearly I disagree, but feel free to provide any of that textual evidence for his caring about the common good… I really don’t see anything besides his word, which is frankly not worth much of anything. 

Well, Varys is just a spymaster. He doesn't run the Seven Kingdoms as far as we know. But there are things he didn't have to do. He took care of Gendry, he did his best to save Ned's life, he agreed to save Tyrion, he suggests men should be sent to the Wall rather than be mutilated.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Pycell says the same thing for instance, that he “serves the realm”, it is equally unbelievable.

Only because we have sufficient evidence that Pycelle is a Tywin fanboy. If we hadn't such hints the idea that the Grand Maester serves the Realm would be pretty convincing ... because that's actually his job description.

But then - Pycelle actually thinks serving Tywin serves the Realm best. Because Tywin is this great superman whose rule would, in the end, profit all of Westeros. That's also the reason why Pycelle hoped Tywin would become king in 283 AC. And if you look at Pycelle the loyalty he showed Tywin doesn't exactly extend to Tywin's entire family. He isn't close to Tyrion or Jaime, and he effectively despairs over Cersei's blunders in AFfC. He wants to be loyal to Tywin's kin but he knows they aren't even remotely in the same league as the man he worships.

[John Suburbs]

On 6/30/2021 at 3:49 PM, Lord Varys said:

I also don't think the chances are good that the city will burn, to be honest. Winter has come, and whatever wildfire is still hidden in the city must be hidden in deep caverns and cellars most of the city have no clue even exist. If stuff down there explodes and the city is caked in snow - as it will be in winter - any fires that might break out are not likely to spread.

Wildfire burns on water, and it becomes more viscous in the cold.

So even if there is tons of the stuff underground and it explodes, the mere force of the blast will likely devastate the city even if melting snow does dowse most of the fire.

[Lord Varys]

24 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Wildfire burns on water, and it becomes more viscous in the cold.

Wildfire burns on water, yes, but wet wood, etc. doesn't burn. I could see limited explosions in the city with the the fire burning out more or less, consuming, perhaps, some of the buildings soaked in burning wildfire ... assuming such an explosion taking place in a cellar would actually spread the wildfire beyond the confines of the respective building beneath it was hidden. but I cannot see an inferno that consumes everything. And it is inconceivable that one explosion ignites another stash of wildfire hidden in another quarter of the city in the deeps of a hidden cellar.

Of course, if somebody like Varys were to ignite multiple or all of the yet-hidden caches of wildfire at the same it would have a devastating effect, even in winter, but I still doubt it could destroy the entire city. For instance, I don't see fires and explosions in the lower portions of the city effect the high places considering that melting snow and water flows down. The fires would concentrate in the deep places with the Red Keep, the Great Sept, the Dragonpit and all the other buildings on the hills not being affected.

Where did you get the idea that wildfire is more vicious in the cold?

24 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So even if there is tons of the stuff underground and it explodes, the mere force of the blast will likely devastate the city even if melting snow does dowse most of the fire.

Tyrion exploded most of the fruits of Aerys II they found on the Blackwater. That was a big explosion, but hardly one large enough to destroy the entire city. And that explosion was created by using multiple caches of the hidden wildfire, meaning the accidental explosion of one of the hidden caches would likely be smaller.

[John Suburbs]

On 7/2/2021 at 11:57 AM, Lord Varys said:

Wildfire burns on water, yes, but wet wood, etc. doesn't burn. I could see limited explosions in the city with the the fire burning out more or less, consuming, perhaps, some of the buildings soaked in burning wildfire ... assuming such an explosion taking place in a cellar would actually spread the wildfire beyond the confines of the respective building beneath it was hidden. but I cannot see an inferno that consumes everything. And it is inconceivable that one explosion ignites another stash of wildfire hidden in another quarter of the city in the deeps of a hidden cellar.

Of course, if somebody like Varys were to ignite multiple or all of the yet-hidden caches of wildfire at the same it would have a devastating effect, even in winter, but I still doubt it could destroy the entire city. For instance, I don't see fires and explosions in the lower portions of the city effect the high places considering that melting snow and water flows down. The fires would concentrate in the deep places with the Red Keep, the Great Sept, the Dragonpit and all the other buildings on the hills not being affected.

Where did you get the idea that wildfire is more vicious in the cold?

Tyrion exploded most of the fruits of Aerys II they found on the Blackwater. That was a big explosion, but hardly one large enough to destroy the entire city. And that explosion was created by using multiple caches of the hidden wildfire, meaning the accidental explosion of one of the hidden caches would likely be smaller.

Both Tyrion and Davos see ships burning at the mouth of the Blackwater. I can't imagine that wood not being wet.

And we have this from Wisdom Hallayne"

Quote

"Water will not quench it, I am told."

"That is so. Once it takes fire, the substance will burn fiercely until it is no more. More, it will seep into cloth, wood, leather, even steel, so they take fire as well."

So even if the snow melts, the wildfire will still burning anything it touches, unless Hallayne is BSing this part..

Not vicious. Viscous, as in thicker:

Quote

The wildfire oozed slowly toward the lip of the jar when Tyrion tilted it to peer inside. The color would be a murky green, he knew, but the poor light made that impossible to confirm. "Thick," he observed.

"That is from the cold, my lord," said Hallyne, a pallid man with soft, damp hands and an obsequious manner.

. . .

"As it warms, the substance will flow more easily, like lamp oil."

 

To me, this suggests that colder wildfire will produce a blast, like C-4, not just a plume of fire like gasoline. Then, as it heats up, it will run and seep into everything and long green arms of fire will ignite anything they touch (ie, anything not underwater), like they did on the Blackwater.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Both Tyrion and Davos see ships burning at the mouth of the Blackwater. I can't imagine that wood not being wet.

Those are ships engulfed in wildfire. Of course, when the wildfire sufficiently heats the wood underneath it is also going to burn ... until it sinks beneath the water. Wildfire itself is like oil, it swims on the surface. Imagine some burning wildfire splashing on a given snow-covered roof in KL. The snow won't burn, but melt, and the wildfire will become part of the water mixture and dribble down on the street.

There will be little opportunity for that mixture of melting snow and wildfire to ignite much, nor will there be enough to seep into steel or stone. After all, Thoros and Stannis needed pure wildfire to create their burning swords ... they didn't need mixtures of water and wildfire.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And we have this from Wisdom Hallayne"

So even if the snow melts, the wildfire will still burning anything it touches, unless Hallayne is BSing this part..

I never doubted that, but that makes no matter. You would have to shower or drown KL in wildfire to make the city burn in winter. All you can expect from isolated wildfire explosions is isolated fires which wouldn't spread far. Yes, if there is an explosion with enough force to drench some other houses in burning wildfire, they will catch fire, too, but it wouldn't spread from there.

But I'd not even expect big explosions there - the wildfire seems to be hidden underground, so an explosion might destroy cellars and cause houses to collapse, but chances are not that high that an explosion in a cellar - which most likely is going to consume most of the wildfire, anyway - is going to spread the substance very far. If the city is not caked in snow such explosions could still cause big fires but in winter the chances for that should be very low.

Aerys II hid wildfire everywhere in the city because he knew he needed that much at that many place for the city to burn properly ... and he didn't want to burn it in winter, he wanted to burn it in the spring.

You should also keep in mind that Tyrion blew up a lot of wildfire on the river close to the city walls which didn't cause the city to burn. That tells us something about how far a big wildfire burn can spread all by itself ... apparently not that far if it is surrounded by water. Which it also would be in the city if it is caked in snow.

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not vicious. Viscous, as in thicker:

To me, this suggests that colder wildfire will produce a blast, like C-4, not just a plume of fire like gasoline. Then, as it heats up, it will run and seep into everything and long green arms of fire will ignite anything they touch (ie, anything not underwater), like they did on the Blackwater.

I don't see any evidence that the way wildfire reacts or burns is changed by temperatures. It gets ever more volatile the older it gets, but there is no indication that explosiveness is affected by temperature. It seems that the cold actually helps to keep it in check and allows you to handle it better - which is why the alchemists store it in cool places. After all, if you spill very liquid wildfire you may quickly have a much bigger problem than when you spill it when it is very viscous.

Bottom line is, if George wants KL to burn he will have to do that when the snow is gone. And if he wants to burn the city in a manner that nobody/very few people get out he will also have to have somebody find all of Aerys' lost fruits that haven't been found and burned already and hide even more wildfire at crucial places.

If I had to guess then I'd say the majority of Aerys' fruits have already been found. They burned a lot of them on the Blackwater, after all.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Those are ships engulfed in wildfire. Of course, when the wildfire sufficiently heats the wood underneath it is also going to burn ... until it sinks beneath the water. Wildfire itself is like oil, it swims on the surface. Imagine some burning wildfire splashing on a given snow-covered roof in KL. The snow won't burn, but melt, and the wildfire will become part of the water mixture and dribble down on the street.

There will be little opportunity for that mixture of melting snow and wildfire to ignite much, nor will there be enough to seep into steel or stone. After all, Thoros and Stannis needed pure wildfire to create their burning swords ... they didn't need mixtures of water and wildfire.

I never doubted that, but that makes no matter. You would have to shower or drown KL in wildfire to make the city burn in winter. All you can expect from isolated wildfire explosions is isolated fires which wouldn't spread far. Yes, if there is an explosion with enough force to drench some other houses in burning wildfire, they will catch fire, too, but it wouldn't spread from there.

But I'd not even expect big explosions there - the wildfire seems to be hidden underground, so an explosion might destroy cellars and cause houses to collapse, but chances are not that high that an explosion in a cellar - which most likely is going to consume most of the wildfire, anyway - is going to spread the substance very far. If the city is not caked in snow such explosions could still cause big fires but in winter the chances for that should be very low.

Aerys II hid wildfire everywhere in the city because he knew he needed that much at that many place for the city to burn properly ... and he didn't want to burn it in winter, he wanted to burn it in the spring.

You should also keep in mind that Tyrion blew up a lot of wildfire on the river close to the city walls which didn't cause the city to burn. That tells us something about how far a big wildfire burn can spread all by itself ... apparently not that far if it is surrounded by water. Which it also would be in the city if it is caked in snow.

I don't see any evidence that the way wildfire reacts or burns is changed by temperatures. It gets ever more volatile the older it gets, but there is no indication that explosiveness is affected by temperature. It seems that the cold actually helps to keep it in check and allows you to handle it better - which is why the alchemists store it in cool places. After all, if you spill very liquid wildfire you may quickly have a much bigger problem than when you spill it when it is very viscous.

Bottom line is, if George wants KL to burn he will have to do that when the snow is gone. And if he wants to burn the city in a manner that nobody/very few people get out he will also have to have somebody find all of Aerys' lost fruits that haven't been found and burned already and hide even more wildfire at crucial places.

If I had to guess then I'd say the majority of Aerys' fruits have already been found. They burned a lot of them on the Blackwater, after all.

I disagree, but carry on.

[MaesterSam]

Great discussion going on here!

Just wanted to add my two cents RE: Varys & Illyrio's motivations. Yes they both SAY they want Aegon to be the new king and rule wisely and make things better for the common people. HOWEVER, they had previously arranged to procure a Dothraki khalasar for Viserys, who was then supposed to join Aegon for the invasion of Westeros. If the goal was for Aegon to rule, why give the bigger army to Viserys (who was clearly on a path to madness already)?? Viserys could have easily been dispatched, then Dany could have still been given to Drogo in exchange for the army, but the army for Aegon, not Viserys. Why keep Viserys around at all if Aegon is the chosen king? He is guaranteed to make things more difficult for Aegon, and if he were to prevail then Westeros would go right back to a mad king. So that's problem #1. 

Problem #2 is more serious - the plan to send 100,000 Dothraki to Westeros. We have seen what the Dothraki have done to Essos - they wiped out entire civilizations, burned their cities to the ground and sold their people into slavery. There are practically no small farms or villages anymore because it's not safe - basically it's just the Free Cities who buy off the khalasars when they come by. Everyone is afraid of them; the whole continent is littered with ruins. (The ruins not made by the Dothraki were made by the Valyrians - ironically they also wish to send a Valyrian or three to Westeros). The Dothraki kill, pillage, rape and DON'T ALLOW AGRICULTURE. How can Westeros possibly deal with them? There is zero chance that Viserys or Aegon could keep them under control... never mind that winter is coming and Westeros can't support an additional 100,000 people even if they still had fields to harvest. I just see no scenario in which this move, sending all these Dothraki to Westeros, can possibly be interpreted as being "good for the Realm". No way. 

I actually suspect that what Varys and Illyrio really want is to improve Essos, the continent they're from and where they can rise as high as they wish. So they need to get rid of those pesky Dothraki. They also don't want any Valyrian claimants interfering with their plans, so they find all the potential exiled heirs and send them back across the sea - ideally right along with the Dothraki. Oh and let them take the sellswords while they're at it - that way Essos can have peace and can keep more of its food for the people of the Free Cities. 

[Julia H.]

38 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

I actually suspect that what Varys and Illyrio really want is to improve Essos, the continent they're from and where they can rise as high as they wish. So they need to get rid of those pesky Dothraki. They also don't want any Valyrian claimants interfering with their plans, so they find all the potential exiled heirs and send them back across the sea - ideally right along with the Dothraki. Oh and let them take the sellswords while they're at it - that way Essos can have peace and can keep more of its food for the people of the Free Cities. 

I'm also very suspicious of Varys and his real motivation. (The "for the children" speech has not convinced me at all.) But I've never thought of the possibility outlined above. Wow.