Varys of the Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

I was reading a post by @Lucia Targaryen and something that has been bugging me finally clicked.

For a long time Varys has made very little sense to me in regards to one thing. Why would Varys agree to be the spymaster of mad king Aerys? There is the simple answer, the pretense answers, it is a very good position for someone as low of birth as the eunuch. I also reject this answer.

Varys rose from nothing into a spider with a terrible large web. With the help of Illyrio Mopatis, Varys became someone in pentos. Varys has also been shown throughout the series to be a person conscious of the hurt of the realm and the dangers of misrule. So why work so hard for a cruel and paranoid king? why engage and abide such outrageous acts? Wouldn't Rhaegar be a better king than his father? Why inform on him then prior to the tourney at Harrenhal then?

"The rot began with Varys," so said Ser Barristan Selmy. from this quote one might infer that the realm was weakening, the cohesion of the lords widening, Aerys paranoia increasing as Varys tenure as spymaster endured. 

The more paranoid Aerys became, the weaker the realm was as a whole. if Aerys put his son Rheagar aside, all the better. either aerys would rule for many more years, turing more lords against the crown, or a boy king with seemingly similar mad predilections would take over. angered and exhausted by misrule, when the sixth blackfyre pretended revealed himself, men might just flock under his banner.

this presumed one thing especially: a Blackfyre heir. well.. the origins of fAegon are convent arnt they? one could even say that his declaration of identity could only work were it hard to identify the baby Gregor clegan bashed the skull of. in reality, Varys story on how he swapped the children works best in hindsight, after the real targaryen are deposed and the Baratheons takes their place. better a targ then a blackfyre.

but where does varys get his blackfyre?

"Even I have Debts of affection," So said Illyrio Mopatis on why he is helping fAegon. affection for who? the eunuch? or for his wife, Sara, who wished to see her son rule the kingdom neither she nor her forefathers ever could. we know the blackfyre's are extinct in the male line, which implied the female line persists. well why would the eunuch help? two fold- the same reason he has given us- the realm, and a debt of affection to his old friend.

 

So in summary: Varys was initially an agent working toward making the conditions of a sixth blackfyre rebellion successful. conditions changed with robert, but actually for the better, for a Targ makes for a better claim than a blackfyre, and far more than a lannister without any baratheon blood.

 

[Megorova]

I previously wrote a theory that explains Varys' possible origin, his motives and his activities since he came to Westeros, and also what are his plans concerning 7K and fAegon.

Links:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159023-swan-song-part-916-the-red-widow-the-spider/

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159052-swan-song-part-1016-what-happened-at-the-kingswood/

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159077-swan-song-part-1416-the-perfumed-seneschal-and-the-mummers-dragon/

Summary - In the first thread it's explained how Varys and Sera are Blackfyres - children of Maelys the Monstrous. The part about Varys begins with section "Across the Narrow Sea", so just skip what's written before that in sections "The Red Widow", "Jenny of Oldstones", etc. And the second thread, the one about events at the Kingswood is a bit irrelevant for who Varys is, it's just explains my version of who are fAegon's parents and how fAegon became part of Varys' plans concerning 7K's conquest. And the third thread is mostly about parallels between Biblical characters and Varys, fAegon, Golden Company, Septa Lemore, Dany, Rhaego. 

16 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

So in summary: Varys was initially an agent working toward making the conditions of a sixth blackfyre rebellion successful. conditions changed with robert, but actually for the better, for a Targ makes for a better claim than a blackfyre, and far more than a lannister without any baratheon blood.

I made similar conclusions, that Varys was undermining whoever was rulling as the King of the 7K, way back during Aerys' reign and after Robert became the King. The only difference is that in my opinion fAegon is not a Targaryen, instead he is a Blackfyre, same as Varys, and Varys was working all along to seize Iron Throne for the Blackfyres. Though originally that Blackfyre King was supposed to become Sera's son fathered by Illyrio (Sera is possibly Varys' sister and also a Blackfyre like Varys). Could be that Illyrio was intending for his own child to hatch those dragon eggs that he later gave as a wedding gift to Dany.

It's likely that after the Doom the Faceless Men were watching over what remaining dragonseeds all over the world were doing, so when they saw that Sera (who was a dragonseed) was intending to give birth to a child that could have became the Prince that was Promised and would have successfully hatched those dragon eggs (because that's what was written in the prophecy (the one that was mentioned by Egg in The Mystery Knight novel, he said to Dunk that his grandfather, Daeron II, have read that prophecy in an ancien book)), they sent to Pentos a ship with infected rats on board, and those rats killed Sera and with her 2000 more people.

Seems that Sera died sometime between Varys' arrival to Aerys' court (278) and Robert's Rebellion (283). So Varys was changing his plans based on for whom was he intending to get the Throne - Sera's future child, and then fAegon. So in the past 16 years (since Robert became King) Varys was spinning his spy-network and preparing the 7K for the invasion by the Golden Company. And he wasn't doing anything more active, like for example poisoning Robert, because he was waiting for fAegon to grow up. Though before Robert's Rebellion, and before Sera's death, he was more actively undermining the 7K's King and his rule. He wanted to set up Rhaegar, to make him cause civil war at Westeros, and when one of the Targaryens (either the father or the son) would have died and the realm would have been weakened by the war, that's when Varys was intending to bring Golden Company across the Narrow Sea and seize the Throne (for Sera and her future child). Then Varys wasn't intending to wait for Sera to have a child, for that child to grow up, etc., he was intending to seize the Throne as soon as possible, so then he was using different methods than he started using after Sera's death and Robert's Rebellion.

16 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

a Targ makes for a better claim than a blackfyre

Does this mean that in your opinion fAegon is a real Targaryen? If that is so, then can you explain what is your version of how was he taken from Elia, and why Varys would help a Targaryen? And also why Golden Company agreed to help fAegon, but refused to help Viserys?

16 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

"Even I have Debts of affection," So said Illyrio Mopatis on why he is helping fAegon. affection for who? the eunuch? or for his wife, Sara, who wished to see her son rule the kingdom neither she nor her forefathers ever could. we know the blackfyre's are extinct in the male line, which implied the female line persists. well why would the eunuch help? two fold- the same reason he has given us- the realm, and a debt of affection to his old friend.

Illyrio is staying back in Pentos, it's Varys who is constantly risking his life and doing all the heavy lifting. If fAegon is Illyrio's son, then shouldn't Illyrio be more involved, and do more? It seems kind of dubious that Varys is doing all that work because of his friend's son, while that friend himself, the father of that child, is doing nearly nothing to assure that his son will get the Targaryen Throne. Varys cares more, like it's his own business, not something that he does because of an old friendship.

[Lord Varys]

The problem with that idea is that if Varys was ripening Westeros for another Blackfyre invasion it is rather odd that no Blackfyre pretender shows up during the Rebellion.

If Robert's Rebellion is at least partly caused by Varys' schemes then Varys and Illyrio should have had a plan what to do when things exploded. But there is no indication that they wanted the Golden Company to invade during the Rebellion ... unlike the present situation where Varys' schemes in KL are complimented by Illyrio's schemes with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

You have to keep in mind that Robert only became a pretender to the throne as the war progressed. If a Blackfyre pretender had showed up before the Trident the rebels could have put that guy on the throne rather than Robert.

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with that idea is that if Varys was ripening Westeros for another Blackfyre invasion it is rather odd that no Blackfyre pretender shows up during the Rebellion.

If Robert's Rebellion is at least partly caused by Varys' schemes then Varys and Illyrio should have had a plan what to do when things exploded. But there is no indication that they wanted the Golden Company to invade during the Rebellion ... unlike the present situation where Varys' schemes in KL are complimented by Illyrio's schemes with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

You have to keep in mind that Robert only became a pretender to the throne as the war progressed. If a Blackfyre pretender had showed up before the Trident the rebels could have put that guy on the throne rather than Robert.

Unless the plan was to blow up King's Landing with wildfire once Robert and Ned reached the city with their armies... which was foiled by Tywin's arrival early (and explains why Varys would advise against letting Tywin in) and Robert's injury.

If you were trying to cause instability and chaos, I would think that would do it.

Not sure I'm convinced of this mind you, but it's an interesting possibility.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

5 hours ago, Megorova said:

Does this mean that in your opinion fAegon is a real Targaryen? If that is so, then can you explain what is your version of how was he taken from Elia, and why Varys would help a Targaryen? And also why Golden Company agreed to help fAegon, but refused to help Viserys?

Illyrio is staying back in Pentos, it's Varys who is constantly risking his life and doing all the heavy lifting. If fAegon is Illyrio's son, then shouldn't Illyrio be more involved, and do more? It seems kind of dubious that Varys is doing all that work because of his friend's son, while that friend himself, the father of that child, is doing nearly nothing to assure that his son will get the Targaryen Throne. Varys cares more, like it's his own business, not something that he does because of an old friendship.

first i wanna say those are some really good theories and im enjoying reading through them. if i had one criticism to a claim in your post it would be to the claim the faceless men were behind the grey plague in pentos. as the ugly girl chapter reinforces, the faceless men are after only the target. they are a no collateral organization when they can help it, the exception being the doom if they are responsible for it.

I am not of the opinion that faegon is a real targaryen. i think that original he would have been the blackfyre pretended but the events of the rebellion and the real aegon's death, and the condition of the corpse, made it possible for varys to claim he is the real aegon, which makes his claim to the throne seem more legitimate.

I would argue illyrio is heavily involved. as aegons real father, he knows it is best for his son if his son does not know he is a fake. illyrio housed dany and viserys to no joy of Robert, who did know they were being protected their. he also arranged an alliance with the drogo, which visaerys ruined. dude is involved.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with that idea is that if Varys was ripening Westeros for another Blackfyre invasion it is rather odd that no Blackfyre pretender shows up during the Rebellion.

If Robert's Rebellion is at least partly caused by Varys' schemes then Varys and Illyrio should have had a plan what to do when things exploded. But there is no indication that they wanted the Golden Company to invade during the Rebellion ... unlike the present situation where Varys' schemes in KL are complimented by Illyrio's schemes with the Dothraki and the Golden Company.

You have to keep in mind that Robert only became a pretender to the throne as the war progressed. If a Blackfyre pretender had showed up before the Trident the rebels could have put that guy on the throne rather than Robert.

I actually think that this is just an example of the plan working too well. like you said no one thought roberts rebellion was the rebellion it came to be, much less aerys. it wasn't part of varys' plan but after the rebellion happened, how the plan was to be executed changed.

like little finger said, "some time pieces move in unexpected ways." simmualry in the first book were hears illyrio and varys talking in the dungeons about how things are moving to fast. varys isn't a magician, he's good but he can't control everything.

just as the plan changed recently with drogo's death, the plan changed back then too.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I actually think that this is just an example of the plan working too well. like you said no one thought roberts rebellion was the rebellion it came to be, much less aerys. it wasn't part of varys' plan but after the rebellion happened, how the plan was to be executed changed.

like little finger said, "some time pieces move in unexpected ways." simmualry in the first book were hears illyrio and varys talking in the dungeons about how things are moving to fast. varys isn't a magician, he's good but he can't control everything.

just as the plan changed recently with drogo's death, the plan changed back then too.

The problem with that idea is that Illyrio didn't seem to move any pieces of his own prior to and during the Rebellion. And Robert's Rebellion - or something along those lines - would have been Varys' plan if he had deliberately sabotaged the effectiveness of the Mad King's rule by fueling his paranoia.

12 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Unless the plan was to blow up King's Landing with wildfire once Robert and Ned reached the city with their armies... which was foiled by Tywin's arrival early (and explains why Varys would advise against letting Tywin in) and Robert's injury.

If you were trying to cause instability and chaos, I would think that would do it.

Not sure I'm convinced of this mind you, but it's an interesting possibility.

If Varys wanted to do something like that, then KL would have burned. In fact, nobody could or would have stopped him and he would have had every opportunity to burn KL while Robert and Ned and Tywin and the other rebels were there. Robert and all his allies could been devoured by wildfire during his coronation feast, say.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with that idea is that Illyrio didn't seem to move any pieces of his own prior to and during the Rebellion. And Robert's Rebellion - or something along those lines - would have been Varys' plan if he had deliberately sabotaged the effectiveness of the Mad King's rule by fueling his paranoia.

oh, I agree. to that end I have to imagine that faegon is a newborn or just a bump in sara's stomach at that point in time and so the best thing for illyrio to be doing then is keeping his head down. he's also making money that could ultimately be very useful. varys didn't plan for roberts rebellion or an event like it to happen so soon. he may have even expected that uprisings to be crushed, just as aerys had, but things escalated quickly and to the detriment of aerys. how could varys know that rhaegar would steal lyanna or that aerys would brutally execute rickard or brandon stark? still varys has a goal so he keeps on paddling.

at the time of harrenhal, i think his only objective was to sow distrust between father and son in hopes of rhaegar being put aside in line to the iron throne. varys prooboly had at least an idea of what visaerys was like as a child, as had selmy. a rebellion would be easier with either of the two on the throne.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

oh, I agree. to that end I have to imagine that faegon is a newborn or just a bump in sara's stomach at that point in time and so the best thing for illyrio to be doing then is keeping his head down. he's also making money that could ultimately be very useful. varys didn't plan for roberts rebellion or an event like it to happen so soon. he may have even expected that uprisings to be crushed, just as aerys had, but things escalated quickly and to the detriment of aerys. how could varys know that rhaegar would steal lyanna or that aerys would brutally execute rickard or brandon stark? still varys has a goal so he keeps on paddling.

If Varys was fueling Aerys' paranoia then we should assume Varys was the one who decided that Brandon and Rickard and the others be executed, as well as the guy behind the decision to command Jon Arryn to execute Robert and Ned. And Varys is not stupid enough to not realize that this is the recipe for war.

Lyanna is a different matter, but even that is something Varys could have foreseen if he had informants in Rhaegar's inner circle.

And if Aegon is Serra's son then he wasn't even conceived in 281-282 AC in light of the fact that Tyrion thinks he is 15-16 years old, not 18-19.

3 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

at the time of harrenhal, i think his only objective was to sow distrust between father and son in hopes of rhaegar being put aside in line to the iron throne. varys prooboly had at least an idea of what visaerys was like as a child, as had selmy. a rebellion would be easier with either of the two on the throne.

I don't think Varys is stupid enough to ever believe the reign of Aerys II would end peacefully.

[Maia]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with that idea is that if Varys was ripening Westeros for another Blackfyre invasion it is rather odd that no Blackfyre pretender shows up during the Rebellion.

Maybe something happened to their pretender and they had been unable to deploy him in time. A Sickness, for instance or an injury. It wouldn't surprise me if IlIyrio  himself was that person and he is really Aelor. The fact that he speaks Westerosi Common language  as a native and that he and Varys talk in it when they are alone in AGoT is very suspicious IMHO. Or maybe the man inconveniently died. Additionally, the events may have somewhat outpaced Varys and the Rebellion ended sooner than he expected, with Robert being more popular ditto.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

If Varys was fueling Aerys' paranoia then we should assume Varys was the one who decided that Brandon and Rickard and the others be executed, as well as the guy behind the decision to command Jon Arryn to execute Robert and Ned. And Varys is not stupid enough to not realize that this is the recipe for war.

come on thats like saying we should assume varys was behind neds death. sure maybe it was little finger who gave him the idea, but Joffery killed Ned causing the northern rebellion and later the war of five kings against varys wishes. Aerys was paranoid and cruel, and likely cocky enough to believe that no one would challenge him, like off had. I think your giving varys overall influence a bit too much credit here.

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Lyanna is a different matter, but even that is something Varys could have foreseen if he had informants in Rhaegar's inner circle.

again i have to disagree. the two met at harrenhal and rhaegar fell in love after realizing her identity as the knight of the laughing tree. and we as readers are also unsure what the exact happenstance led the two to meet near harrenhal around a year later. and if this did cause a scandal instead of war, the cohesion of the realm weakens and rhaegar may even be put aside as varys wants.

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And if Aegon is Serra's son then he wasn't even conceived in 281-282 AC in light of the fact that Tyrion thinks he is 15-16 years old, not 18-19.

what's one or two years? jk thats a fair criticism. still if we assume the existence of the relationship with sara, then one could assume they would have a child they could use eventually. and they do even, around the time of the rebellion- give or take.

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Varys is stupid enough to ever believe the reign of Aerys II would end peacefully.

of course it wouldn't end peacefully. it would end to a blackfyre rebellion, or maybe the king is poisoned and his son visarys takes the throne.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Maia said:

Maybe something happened to their pretender and they had been unable to deploy him in time. A Sickness, for instance or an injury. It wouldn't surprise me if IlIyrio  himself was that person and he is really Aelor. The fact that he speaks Westerosi Common language  as a native and that he and Varys talk in it when they are alone in AGoT is very suspicious IMHO. Or maybe the man inconveniently died. Additionally, the events may have somewhat outpaced Varys and the Rebellion ended sooner than he expected, with Robert being more popular ditto.

But Illyrio should have been ready to invade Westeros in the 280s, no? Especially, if Varys went to KL to lay the groundwork for another Blackfyre invasion. Illyrio would have been a young man in his prime, scarcely older than the statue of the youth Tyrion saw at his manse.

And if Serra was the only pretender they had they could have just invaded in her name and then push or force Robert to marry her if the rebels wanted the support of 10,000 Golden Company men.

26 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

come on thats like saying we should assume varys was behind neds death. sure maybe it was little finger who gave him the idea, but Joffery killed Ned causing the northern rebellion and later the war of five kings against varys wishes. Aerys was paranoid and cruel, and likely cocky enough to believe that no one would challenge him, like off had. I think your giving varys overall influence a bit too much credit here.

Varys may not have decided the sentence, but if Aerys II wanted information on who to trust and who to distrust he would have turned to Varys, no? And if Varys was feeding his king's paranoia then it seems pretty likely he didn't tell him Rickard and Brandon and the others were innocent, no?

26 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

again i have to disagree. the two met at harrenhal and rhaegar fell in love after realizing her identity as the knight of the laughing tree. and we as readers are also unsure what the exact happenstance led the two to meet near harrenhal around a year later. and if this did cause a scandal instead of war, the cohesion of the realm weakens and rhaegar may even be put aside as varys wants.

Oh, I know how things went, I just think it is possible that Rhaegar already knew he would take Lyanna when he left Dragonstone with his companions. And if Varys had informants in this circle then he may have known that, too.

26 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

what's one or two years? jk thats a fair criticism. still if we assume the existence of the relationship with sara, then one could assume they would have a child they could use eventually. and they do even, around the time of the rebellion- give or take.

of course it wouldn't end peacefully. it would end to a blackfyre rebellion, or maybe the king is poisoned and his son visarys takes the throne.

That all feels a tidbit too convoluted for me. Varys would become even a bigger laughingstock than he is right now, with his plans constantly changing and being postponed. There was no need for Varys to bother serving the Mad King when a pretender for the Iron Throne wasn't even conceived yet.

Varys motivated by vengeance - really weird vengeance if it had to do with Blackfyre stuff, considering what kind of monster Maelys the Monstrous apparently was - is just not very likely, especially considering George could have spelled out that out in the Epilogue where Varys could have been gloating to the dying Kevan, telling how many men he had already killed directly or indirectly to get his revenge.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But Illyrio should have been ready to invade Westeros in the 280s, no? Especially, if Varys went to KL to lay the groundwork for another Blackfyre invasion. Illyrio would have been a young man in his prime, scarcely older than the statue of the youth Tyrion saw at his manse.

And if Serra was the only pretender they had they could have just invaded in her name and then push or force Robert to marry her if the rebels wanted the support of 10,000 Golden Company men.

i agree with this first statement. as for the second i would argue that a female pretender would be a much harder sell. furthermore the war could have gone either way until the trident, after which point it was too late. also illyrio would never give her to robert. 

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys may not have decided the sentence, but if Aerys II wanted information on who to trust and who to distrust he would have turned to Varys, no? And if Varys was feeding his king's paranoia then it seems pretty likely he didn't tell him Rickard and Brandon and the others were innocent, no?

Not if the goal is to create the atmosphere "everyone is an enemy." also brandon was plainly guilty in the king's eyes. there was no arguing that away. and even if he listens to varys for who was a traitor, that doesn't entail that he listened to his advice for punishment.

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, I know how things went, I just think it is possible that Rhaegar already knew he would take Lyanna when he left Dragonstone with his companions. And if Varys had informants in this circle then he may have known that, too.

sorry didnt mean to imply otherwise. i just believe it could have been spontaneous and that we have not been told otherwise so it is thereby plausible, and if not, probably only shared with one or two people like Arthur dayne who would keep the secret.

28 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That all feels a tidbit too convoluted for me. Varys would become even a bigger laughingstock than he is right now, with his plans constantly changing and being postponed. There was no need for Varys to bother serving the Mad King when a pretender for the Iron Throne wasn't even conceived yet.

Varys motivated by vengeance - really weird vengeance if it had to do with Blackfyre stuff, considering what kind of monster Maelys the Monstrous apparently was - is just not very likely, especially considering George could have spelled out that out in the Epilogue where Varys could have been gloating to the dying Kevan, telling how many men he had already killed directly or indirectly to get his revenge.

I don't know, seems possible to me. with sara and the base assumption that she would have at least one child (hopefully a boy), then it doesn't matter when varys starts laying groundwork. the base plan stays the same either way. a weakened and divided realm is, after years of misrule, given a chance depose an unpopular liege lord. is it really so crazy for him to be working on this plan an extra four or five years after committing to it for what is likely the entirety of faegons life. and varys as spymaster would be able to hide the danger of faegon, where another spy master may have been able to reveal him or who sara was. i mean, the first four blackfyre rebellion all fell because of the spymaster bloodraven

 

I totally respect your criticism of this theory, but from what we know about varys, i cannot fathom him being actually loyal to aerys. given that varys likely knew that sara was a blackfyre through his close friendship to illyrio, it is plausible that this plan has always been to do something akin this.

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

i agree with this first statement. as for the second i would argue that a female pretender would be a much harder sell. furthermore the war could have gone either way until the trident, after which point it was too late. also illyrio would never give her to robert. 

Of course, but if you are Varys you can foresee roughly what's likely to happen, meaning the Golden Company and your pretender - male or female - would be ready at the beginning of the Rebellion ... when it was very likely that Golden Company support of the rebels would have changed the scales of the war quickly enough, long before Robert could become a pretender in his own right.

Not to mention if we talk a female pretender on the Golden Company side we could easily enough see a marriage happen there even after Robert had become a pretender to the Iron Throne.

29 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Not if the goal is to create the atmosphere "everyone is an enemy." also brandon was plainly guilty in the king's eyes. there was no arguing that away. and even if he listens to varys for who was a traitor, that doesn't entail that he listened to his advice for punishment.

Well, if you theorize about Varys' influence at court and with the Mad King he should have been involved in some of those things, right? And we clearly do not know why Brandon and Rickard and the others were executed at this point. Brandon threatened a prince the king himself no longer trusted, so it is odd that Aerys would actually come to Rhaegar's defense there.

29 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I don't know, seems possible to me. with sara and the base assumption that she would have at least one child (hopefully a boy), then it doesn't matter when varys starts laying groundwork. the base plan stays the same either way. a weakened and divided realm is, after years of misrule, given a chance depose an unpopular liege lord. is it really so crazy for him to be working on this plan an extra four or five years after committing to it for what is likely the entirety of faegons life. and varys as spymaster would be able to hide the danger of faegon, where another spy master may have been able to reveal him or who sara was. i mean, the first four blackfyre rebellion all fell because of the spymaster bloodraven

Problem is, Varys doesn't strike as a guy who cares much about revenge and payback on behalf of this or that noble family. Those are not the things he seems to be obsessed with. And Illyrio is even less involved with all that.

It is also kind of weird to assume that Serra has any Blackfyre or Targaryen connections at all. She was apparently a Lysene whore and they all have Valyrian features. A child of such a whore is likely to look Valyrian, too, so she's a good mother for a fake Aegon. If Varys' Aegon is younger than Rhaegar's son as Tyrion's observation could imply, then Varys' Aegon was only conceived after the Sack. And then Illyrio likely didn't father him on some chosen Blackfyre woman but rather on some Lysene whore. In fact, we would imagine he tried to impregnate a dozen or more Lysene whores to ensure that he get a male child with Valyrian features at all. If he only tried with one woman chances would have been rather low that they would create a fake prince who looked the part. And they would lose nine months they could never make up for. They would need a child looking the part as soon as possible or they could kiss the entire plan goodbye.

In that sense - if Aegon is some Blackfyre descendent he likely inherited that blood from his father, not his mother.

29 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I totally respect your criticism of this theory, but from what we know about varys, i cannot fathom him being actually loyal to aerys. given that varys likely knew that sara was a blackfyre through his close friendship to illyrio, it is plausible that this plan has always been to do something akin this.

Oh, Varys doesn't really have to be that loyal to Aerys II. But imagining him as a guy who wanted to bring down the dynasty for some Blackfyre pretender is another thing entirely.

Also keep in mind - if Varys wanted to destroy the Targaryens he had more than enough time and opportunity to do so, especially if he were motivated primarily by revenge. Then Rhaegar would have died before his marriage, Viserys would have died in the cradle, Aerys II would have jumped out of the window of his bedchamber, and Queen Rhaella would have choked on a pie.

In fact, if he and Illyrio had deep-seated issues with the Targaryens they would have cut the throats of Viserys and Daenerys years ago. They would have never worked with them.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, but if you are Varys you can foresee roughly what's likely to happen, meaning the Golden Company and your pretender - male or female - would be ready at the beginning of the Rebellion ... when it was very likely that Golden Company support of the rebels would have changed the scales of the war quickly enough, long before Robert could become a pretender in his own right.

Not to mention if we talk a female pretender on the Golden Company side we could easily enough see a marriage happen there even after Robert had become a pretender to the Iron Throne.

I understand what you mean. At a certain point, say when ned formally rallied the north or even before that even, Varys would have understood a rebellion was happening, but even understanding that, certain things were not ready. the golden company has denied blackfyre pretenders in the past (second rebellion), and that was a legitimate heir and son next in line. Sarra, as a woman, is a more difficult sell in that regard. second a marriage between her and another lord seem unlikely because of her relationship with illyrio.

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, if you theorize about Varys' influence at court and with the Mad King he should have been involved in some of those things, right? And we clearly do not know why Brandon and Rickard and the others were executed at this point. Brandon threatened a prince the king himself no longer trusted, so it is odd that Aerys would actually come to Rhaegar's defense there.

yes, i suppose, agents that would work for him at least. still the stark seem a more difficult lie to pull off, and could just as easily poison the trustworthiness of varys in aerys eyes. you are right that we have only had sparse looks at what aerys was thinking when he killed them... but rickard did demand trial by combat... which could only result in liberation or death. regarding brandon, well to threaten the life of a prince could easily be considered treason against the house and reason for arrest and even execution. even tywin went to war for tyrion. furthermore the form of execution brandon died to was a type of self inflection- not to say he would not have been executed if he didn't strangle himself... but he did.

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Problem is, Varys doesn't strike as a guy who cares much about revenge and payback on behalf of this or that noble family. Those are not the things he seems to be obsessed with. And Illyrio is even less involved with all that.

It is also kind of weird to assume that Serra has any Blackfyre or Targaryen connections at all. She was apparently a Lysene whore and they all have Valyrian features. A child of such a whore is likely to look Valyrian, too, so she's a good mother for a fake Aegon. If Varys' Aegon is younger than Rhaegar's son as Tyrion's observation could imply, then Varys' Aegon was only conceived after the Sack. And then Illyrio likely didn't father him on some chosen Blackfyre woman but rather on some Lysene whore. In fact, we would imagine he tried to impregnate a dozen or more Lysene whores to ensure that he get a male child with Valyrian features at all. If he only tried with one woman chances would have been rather low that they would create a fake prince who looked the part. And they would lose nine months they could never make up for. They would need a child looking the part as soon as possible or they could kiss the entire plan goodbye.

In that sense - if Aegon is some Blackfyre descendent he likely inherited that blood from his father, not his mother.

this first line seem to me a fair and accurate description of varys character. it does not seem to me either that he is interested in those things personally. I also believe that varys is of great affection to and for illyrio. if anyone could be called family to the eunuch, it would be the cheese monger. similarly, illyrio, who kept his dear sarra's hands, had a great love and affection for her. if illyrio would do it for sarra, than its not such a stretch to say varys would do it for illyrio (and the ultimate betterment of a realm).

of character we know, it seem most likely that illyrio is faegons real father, and he is not a blackfyre. if faegon were a blackfyre, he would have to be so on his mother's side. just as well and even more likely so, it could be as you say, she could have been a lysene whore. but at the same time , just as the dance of the dragons is important (or useful) to understanding the confit in asoiaf, so too must the backfyres, else they are just some background information of little import. that could be the case but it seem unlike to me that this important house should play such a small part in asoiaf. faegon and the golden company suggest to me that we the reader are suppose to at least suspect him a blackfyre. perhaps this is too meta reasoning, but it also seems a legitimate way to structure the conflict of the story to me. finally i would point out that while illyrio tells the story of his sarra to Tyrion, he also lies about several things, including who griff and young griff are. and if she were a blackfyre he would never tell tyrion, as it would be giving up the game. it would be saying, hey thats actually my son im trying to make king.

48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, Varys doesn't really have to be that loyal to Aerys II. But imagining him as a guy who wanted to bring down the dynasty for some Blackfyre pretender is another thing entirely.

Also keep in mind - if Varys wanted to destroy the Targaryens he had more than enough time and opportunity to do so, especially if he were motivated primarily by revenge. Then Rhaegar would have died before his marriage, Viserys would have died in the cradle, Aerys II would have jumped out of the window of his bedchamber, and Queen Rhaella would have choked on a pie.

In fact, if he and Illyrio had deep-seated issues with the Targaryens they would have cut the throats of Viserys and Daenerys years ago. They would have never worked with them.

i agree that he doesn't have to be that loyal, even if by pretense he is. it seems his tenure has been ultimately detrimental in creating "the rot" in the realm if barristan is to be believed, but that could easily be a biased opinion. I also don't claim he is the mastermind, but is an important partner in the plot. it is not done for his own sake, which is why is important faegon was raised correctly. two goals in one package, a targ/blackfyre that actually cares for the people.

its actually important to the plan that he doesn't destroy them, just weaken them and damage them enough for his mummers dragon to seize the throne with popular support.

in fact dany as vis are important pawns in securing the dothraki and dorne respectively. faegon as aegon has a better claim than either, and an even better claim with their support.

its not a vendetta, its a debt of affection.

[Maia]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Of course, but if you are Varys you can foresee roughly what's likely to happen, meaning the Golden Company and your pretender - male or female - would be ready at the beginning of the Rebellion ... when it was very likely that Golden Company support of the rebels would have changed the scales of the war quickly enough, long before Robert could become a pretender in his own right.

 

We don't know anything about what was happening in Essos at the time, where the Golden Company was, etc. At which point the seriousness of the rebellion and Robert's popularity became clear to Varys, how long did he expect it to drag on, only for it to conclude so decisively. What schemes he may have been running that failed*. Etc. Ditto concerning Illyrio - we know nothing about what he was up to and can't reasonably conclude that he wasn't as or even more involved in whatever Varys was doing back then.

In the series proper the events outran Varys too and the Golden Company wasn't standing at attention waiting for his and Illyrio's signal. Like, the support of the Reach was there for the taking after Renly's death, but fAegon and the Golden Company just weren't in position to take advantage of it. Timing is everything.

The fact remains that Varys sabotaged every Westerosi government that he claimed to serve over the period of more than 2 decades and there must be a reason for that. Ditto for the whole fAegon project. And no, I don't buy that it was all some social experiment aimed at creating a "perfect king". Or that after undermining Rhaegar as much as we now know he did, Varys suddenly discovered an undying devotion to his son. 

It wouldn't surprise me if Varys is a bastard of Maelys the Monstrous - the parallels between Egg preserving his cover by shaving his head and Varys's complete baldness are  far too on the nose. Being of "king's blood" may have been considered as particular boon  by the sorcerer who gelded him, if he shared some of Melisandre's beliefs. I think it likely that Illyrio is of a collateral Blackfyre ancestry as well - his change from a youth of overworldly beauty and martial prowess into a whale of a man is very like Aegon IV. Sera, I don't know, but we have only Illyrio's word that she was ever a whore and it isn't like the man is trustworthy. I mean, she might have been, even as a Blackfyre fallen on hard times, or she might just have been a Lyseni who could produce a child with proper appearance.

Hm, now it occurs to me that Varys's initial motivation could have been just revenge for the War of Ninepenny Kings and it only evolved into another plot to grab the throne later. I mean, not only was it a final triumph of Targaryens over the Blackfyres, but both Aerys and Tywin were there personally, etc.  

*One of his schemes that succeded IMHO was finally driving Aerys and Tywin apart, which was what made the rebellion possible in the first place. There was no way that he didn't know about Cersei sneaking out for her tryst with Jaime. In fact, the whole idea about making Jaime a KG may have come from him. Didn't Cersei tell Sansa how she considered Varys her loyal friend when she "first came to court" or something? Which, as we now know was during the reign of Aerys. 

[Megorova]

14 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

if i had one criticism to a claim in your post it would be to the claim the faceless men were behind the grey plague in pentos. as the ugly girl chapter reinforces, the faceless men are after only the target. they are a no collateral organization when they can help it, the exception being the doom if they are responsible for it.

Serra's death is not the first time when FM were killing people en masse/wholesale.

Spoiler

They also killed Robert Baratheon's parents and all those people that were with them on the ship that crashed near Storm's End on the return trip from Volantis. Patchface is a Faceless Man and he killed all the people on that ship prior the ship crashed. The ship crashed because everyone on board were dead. It's likely that Patchface poisoned their water supply, everyone drunk that water, and all the food also was cooked by using that water, so everyone got poisoned. Except Patchface, because he took an antidote.

No one ever said that Steffon's trip to Volantis was unsuccessful. It's likely that he did found there a suitable bride for Rhaegar, or maybe he was even bringing to Westeros several bride-candidates for Rhaegar to choose from. Or he was bringing to Aerys information that at Volantis there are a lot of girls with Valyrian blood, so Rhaegar should go there himself and to choose a bride. Though the Faceless Men were intending to prevent the return of the dragons, so they didn't wanted Rhaegar to have dragonseed children. Because those children would have been three heads of the dragon from the prophecy, and one of them would have been the Promised Prince who would have hatched dragons from petrified eggs (that's what was said in the prophecy). Thus FM killed Steffon and everyone else who went with him to Volantis and would have brought back information to Rhaegar. So instead of marrying with a (more or less) pureblooded dragonseed girl from Volantis, Rhaegar married with his distant cousin - Elia Martell, who didn't even looked like a dragonseed. So the birth of the Promised Prince got postponed (and his mother was not Elia, but another partial dragonseed - Lyanna Stark, who also was one of Rhaegar's distant cousins (thru Mya Rivers, Bloodraven's sister)).

In that story about how Robert's parents died, GRRM gave to readers a lot of clues that their death was not a result of an accident:

1. Where the ship crashed - in the vicinity of Storm's End. Robert saw how the ship crashed. So it happened very close to shore.

The crew of that ship were experienced sailors and it was their native shore, they knew every rock and shoal there, so they wouldn't have crashed. Not to mention that during the storm it's safer to stay away from shore in the open sea, than to approach the shore and to be carried by the tides towards rocks. Experiensed sailors would have either stayed away fom the shore while the storm was raging, or they would have approached the sandy area of a shore, like a beach or a lagoon. That way even if they were carried by the tides off their intended course, then they would have been either washed on beach or would have got stranded on shoal/shallow. The ship would have been stuck, though the people on board would have survived.

2. The ship crashed close to shore, after colliding with sea rocks. And supposedly none of the crew or passengers survived, except Patchface.

When the ship chashes on rocks it doesn't immediately sink, people don't all just die in a moment of the crash. So, are we supposed to belive that out of 100+ people that were on board of that ship, none of them knew how to swim, even though all of them were native Stormlanders, and none of them managed to get off the ship and to climb on those rocks with which the ship crashed? None?

Actually, if the ship was carried towards shore by the tides during storm, then what the crew would have done is this - nearly all of them would have went off board and into boats and in those boats sailed away from rocks/shore, either towards open sea to wait out while the storm will pass, or they would have rowed the boats towards sandy shores. During storm it's easier to stear the boat than to stear the ship.

So at least someone, and more than one person, would have survived. They would have evacuated people off board and into boats. And even if they wouldn't have done that, and everyone stayed on the ship, at least someone would have been able either to cling to those rocks on which the ship crashed, or would have been able to swim to the shore, even during the storm. Patchface supposedly did just that. Supposedly.

The fact that all the people from that ship drowned, is ridiculous. The only way how that could have happened is if by the time when the ship was carried by the tides towards those rocks, it was already a ghost-ship - everyone on board were already dead. That's why they didn't evecuated people on boats, and why the ship crewed with experienced sailors-Stormlanders crashed on rocks at their native shore, and why no one was able to survive in that crash. 

3. Patchface was washed on shore three days after the crash. That's ridiculous.

No one would have survived in the open water for three days. Mind that he wasn't washed on shore together with the ship's wreckage, he wasn't for those three days floating in the sea while clinging to some piece of a ship or a casket or a piece of wood or something like that. Supposedly for those three days he was just floating in the sea. Yeah, right.

A Volantese jester turned out to be a better swimmer than a crew of Stormland sailors? Right.

In my opinion what actually happened is that a day or so prior they were supposed to arrive to Storm's End, the sailors predicted that there's a storm brewing, so they were going to wait it out in the open sea. That's when Patchface poisoned them. When everyone died, he steared the ship towards shore/rocks, took a boat and went off board. In that boat he sailed towards beach/lagoon and went on shore. And maybe he wasn't the only FM on board of that ship. So they together poisoned the crew and manipulated that ship's crash. Afterwards Patchface sent messege to his masters that the mission was successful. And then he got an assignment to infiltrate Baratheon household and to watch over them. Because they are also dragonseeds. So several years later, when his bosses ordered it, Patchface infected Shireen with greyscale, that way preventing her from ever getting married or having children. It's likely that he was also adding something into Stannis' food and drink, something that made him uninterested in his wife and nearly impotent. No more dragonseed children. It's likely that Melisandre had to treat him from that state prior she was able to lure him into her bed. Also it's likely that Patchface made Stanni's wife infertile. For example, by occasionally adding tansy/moontea into her food.

Sooner or later GRRM will reveal everything to the readers, when Patchface will take off his "mask". 

And that ship (same as Serra's death) wasn't the only time when FM were killing not only their intended target but many other people too, just because they were in a wrong place at the wrong time. Also it seems that several times in the 7K's history the FM intentionally caused there mass epidemies (the Great Spring Sickness for example).

I don't want to veer off too much of this thread's main topic, so I will left it at that.

So back on topic - my point is - Serra's death (her assassination by the Faceless Men) completely changed the course of history. If Serra didn't died at that time, then Varys would have made the Golden Company to invade the 7K in 280-281. But the FM intervened and because of them the Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion was delayed for 20 years. Furthermore, after Serra's death Varys' plans were further delayed because he needed to find a replacement for Serra's future child, because the Golden Company was refusing to go to Westeros and conquer it, if there was no one whom they could have crowned as their King. They wanted a Blackfyre to lead them, and they wanted to seize the Iron Throne for that Blackfyre. Thus before Varys would have been able to organize the invasion, he had to somehow give a Blackfyre Prince to the Golden Company, and then it took years for that Prince to grow up. So his age also was a delaying factor that postponed the invasion even further. And because under this conditions Varys had to work towards a totally different goal than he did during Aerys' reign (then he was preparing the 7K for the invasion that was supposed to occur soon, but now (for the last 15+ years) he is working on the prolonged destabilization of political, economical and social situation in the 7K), he also had to change the methods of his work, and to change tactics. Previously there were Aerys and Rhaegar, whom Varys could have used to clash against each other to cause a fast destabilisation of the Kingdoms, but after Robert's Rebellion there was no two distinct opposite sides like that. Thus Varys had to waste years of his time to created those opposing sides, to slowly manipulate various important people of the 7K to form factions and to pit those factions against each other. Like - Stannis VS Renly, Lannisters VS Starks, etc. 

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

5 hours ago, Megorova said:

Serra's death is not the first time when FM were killing people en masse/wholesale.

  Reveal hidden contents

They also killed Robert Baratheon's parents and all those people that were with them on the ship that crashed near Storm's End on the return trip from Volantis. Patchface is a Faceless Man and he killed all the people on that ship prior the ship crashed. The ship crashed because everyone on board were dead. It's likely that Patchface poisoned their water supply, everyone drunk that water, and all the food also was cooked by using that water, so everyone got poisoned. Except Patchface, because he took an antidote.

No one ever said that Steffon's trip to Volantis was unsuccessful. It's likely that he did found there a suitable bride for Rhaegar, or maybe he was even bringing to Westeros several bride-candidates for Rhaegar to choose from. Or he was bringing to Aerys information that at Volantis there are a lot of girls with Valyrian blood, so Rhaegar should go there himself and to choose a bride. Though the Faceless Men were intending to prevent the return of the dragons, so they didn't wanted Rhaegar to have dragonseed children. Because those children would have been three heads of the dragon from the prophecy, and one of them would have been the Promised Prince who would have hatched dragons from petrified eggs (that's what was said in the prophecy). Thus FM killed Steffon and everyone else who went with him to Volantis and would have brought back information to Rhaegar. So instead of marrying with a (more or less) pureblooded dragonseed girl from Volantis, Rhaegar married with his distant cousin - Elia Martell, who didn't even looked like a dragonseed. So the birth of the Promised Prince got postponed (and his mother was not Elia, but another partial dragonseed - Lyanna Stark, who also was one of Rhaegar's distant cousins (thru Mya Rivers, Bloodraven's sister)).

In that story about how Robert's parents died, GRRM gave to readers a lot of clues that their death was not a result of an accident:

1. Where the ship crashed - in the vicinity of Storm's End. Robert saw how the ship crashed. So it happened very close to shore.

The crew of that ship were experienced sailors and it was their native shore, they knew every rock and shoal there, so they wouldn't have crashed. Not to mention that during the storm it's safer to stay away from shore in the open sea, than to approach the shore and to be carried by the tides towards rocks. Experiensed sailors would have either stayed away fom the shore while the storm was raging, or they would have approached the sandy area of a shore, like a beach or a lagoon. That way even if they were carried by the tides off their intended course, then they would have been either washed on beach or would have got stranded on shoal/shallow. The ship would have been stuck, though the people on board would have survived.

2. The ship crashed close to shore, after colliding with sea rocks. And supposedly none of the crew or passengers survived, except Patchface.

When the ship chashes on rocks it doesn't immediately sink, people don't all just die in a moment of the crash. So, are we supposed to belive that out of 100+ people that were on board of that ship, none of them knew how to swim, even though all of them were native Stormlanders, and none of them managed to get off the ship and to climb on those rocks with which the ship crashed? None?

Actually, if the ship was carried towards shore by the tides during storm, then what the crew would have done is this - nearly all of them would have went off board and into boats and in those boats sailed away from rocks/shore, either towards open sea to wait out while the storm will pass, or they would have rowed the boats towards sandy shores. During storm it's easier to stear the boat than to stear the ship.

So at least someone, and more than one person, would have survived. They would have evacuated people off board and into boats. And even if they wouldn't have done that, and everyone stayed on the ship, at least someone would have been able either to cling to those rocks on which the ship crashed, or would have been able to swim to the shore, even during the storm. Patchface supposedly did just that. Supposedly.

The fact that all the people from that ship drowned, is ridiculous. The only way how that could have happened is if by the time when the ship was carried by the tides towards those rocks, it was already a ghost-ship - everyone on board were already dead. That's why they didn't evecuated people on boats, and why the ship crewed with experienced sailors-Stormlanders crashed on rocks at their native shore, and why no one was able to survive in that crash. 

3. Patchface was washed on shore three days after the crash. That's ridiculous.

No one would have survived in the open water for three days. Mind that he wasn't washed on shore together with the ship's wreckage, he wasn't for those three days floating in the sea while clinging to some piece of a ship or a casket or a piece of wood or something like that. Supposedly for those three days he was just floating in the sea. Yeah, right.

A Volantese jester turned out to be a better swimmer than a crew of Stormland sailors? Right.

In my opinion what actually happened is that a day or so prior they were supposed to arrive to Storm's End, the sailors predicted that there's a storm brewing, so they were going to wait it out in the open sea. That's when Patchface poisoned them. When everyone died, he steared the ship towards shore/rocks, took a boat and went off board. In that boat he sailed towards beach/lagoon and went on shore. And maybe he wasn't the only FM on board of that ship. So they together poisoned the crew and manipulated that ship's crash. Afterwards Patchface sent messege to his masters that the mission was successful. And then he got an assignment to infiltrate Baratheon household and to watch over them. Because they are also dragonseeds. So several years later, when his bosses ordered it, Patchface infected Shireen with greyscale, that way preventing her from ever getting married or having children. It's likely that he was also adding something into Stannis' food and drink, something that made him uninterested in his wife and nearly impotent. No more dragonseed children. It's likely that Melisandre had to treat him from that state prior she was able to lure him into her bed. Also it's likely that Patchface made Stanni's wife infertile. For example, by occasionally adding tansy/moontea into her food.

Sooner or later GRRM will reveal everything to the readers, when Patchface will take off his "mask". 

And that ship (same as Serra's death) wasn't the only time when FM were killing not only their intended target but many other people too, just because they were in a wrong place at the wrong time. Also it seems that several times in the 7K's history the FM intentionally caused there mass epidemies (the Great Spring Sickness for example).

I don't want to veer off too much of this thread's main topic, so I will left it at that.

So back on topic - my point is - Serra's death (her assassination by the Faceless Men) completely changed the course of history. If Serra didn't died at that time, then Varys would have made the Golden Company to invade the 7K in 280-281. But the FM intervened and because of them the Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion was delayed for 20 years. Furthermore, after Serra's death Varys' plans were further delayed because he needed to find a replacement for Serra's future child, because the Golden Company was refusing to go to Westeros and conquer it, if there was no one whom they could have crowned as their King. They wanted a Blackfyre to lead them, and they wanted to seize the Iron Throne for that Blackfyre. Thus before Varys would have been able to organize the invasion, he had to somehow give a Blackfyre Prince to the Golden Company, and then it took years for that Prince to grow up. So his age also was a delaying factor that postponed the invasion even further. And because under this conditions Varys had to work towards a totally different goal than he did during Aerys' reign (then he was preparing the 7K for the invasion that was supposed to occur soon, but now (for the last 15+ years) he is working on the prolonged destabilization of political, economical and social situation in the 7K), he also had to change the methods of his work, and to change tactics. Previously there were Aerys and Rhaegar, whom Varys could have used to clash against each other to cause a fast destabilisation of the Kingdoms, but after Robert's Rebellion there was no two distinct opposite sides like that. Thus Varys had to waste years of his time to created those opposing sides, to slowly manipulate various important people of the 7K to form factions and to pit those factions against each other. Like - Stannis VS Renly, Lannisters VS Starks, etc. 

yeah but remember when the kindly man said, "are you a god, to decide who should live and who should die? We give the gift to those marked by Him of Many Faces, after prayers and sacrifice." in discouragement of arya killing more than just the target. The rats off the ship weren't something that they could control, and so as a result there were collateral deaths, something the faceless men are taught to avoid. also they would have no way of being certain she would get sick, and even if they could get close enough to infect her, why not just killer her then and avoid the plague all together?  and wasn't steffon baratheon's ship caught in a storm? the faceless men can't control storm i don't think.  the obvious exception is jaqen but even then he only kills one person during weasel soup, so his only known personally carried out extraneous kill was pate.  finally i would argue that it makes more sense that sarra is alive and unmarred by greyscale during the rebellion if she was the mother of faegon, just based on the supposed age of the child.  I do agree with your final sentiment however. varys did not plan for the rebellion which changed how he would have to balance the contentions and rivalries in the realm, but also he just had to wait for the child to be the right age. boy kings are a bane.

[Lord Varys]

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I understand what you mean. At a certain point, say when ned formally rallied the north or even before that even, Varys would have understood a rebellion was happening, but even understanding that, certain things were not ready. the golden company has denied blackfyre pretenders in the past (second rebellion), and that was a legitimate heir and son next in line. Sarra, as a woman, is a more difficult sell in that regard. second a marriage between her and another lord seem unlikely because of her relationship with illyrio.

Okay, well, if I were Varys and I were motivated by a desire to get revenge for the Blackfyres and put one of their descendants on the Iron Throne I'd get my ducks in a row before I bothered taking a job with Aerys II at KL. Especially if the point of that job was to undermine House Targaryen from within. Meaning I cannot really buy the idea that Varys/Illyrio weren't ready with whatever they wanted to do when Varys moved to KL after Duskendale.

If the Golden Company weren't with Varys/Illyrio in this then they shouldn't have bothered with the entire enterprise at all.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

yes, i suppose, agents that would work for him at least. still the stark seem a more difficult lie to pull off, and could just as easily poison the trustworthiness of varys in aerys eyes. you are right that we have only had sparse looks at what aerys was thinking when he killed them... but rickard did demand trial by combat... which could only result in liberation or death. regarding brandon, well to threaten the life of a prince could easily be considered treason against the house and reason for arrest and even execution. even tywin went to war for tyrion. furthermore the form of execution brandon died to was a type of self inflection- not to say he would not have been executed if he didn't strangle himself... but he did.

Yes, but if you look at things Aerys II and his cronies apparently believed that Rhaegar and the Starks were conspiring against him and the Stark wrath about the Lyanna crown thing was just an elaborate deception on their part. This makes it exceedingly unlikely that Aerys II actually thought that Brandon truly threatened Rhaegar ... but even if he believed that: why would he want to punish Brandon for that if he himself no longer trusted his heir? That doesn't make much sense.

Even more importantly: Rickard and the fathers of Brandon's companions had nothing to do with Brandon's angry threats. Nothing at all. Aerys II would only draw those people into this if he thought this whole thing was part of a larger conspiracy. And we can assume that Rickard, especially, was accused of treason and conspiracy - most likely together with Rhaegar - and he demanded a trial-for-combat to defend against that accusation. Brandon couldn't really have demanded a trial-for-combat for his threats against Rhaegar because he could not reasonably deny that he made those threats. And if they were treason then Brandon was guilty even without a trial like, say, you are when you try to attack the king's person in front of witnesses. Then you also don't get a trial but can be slain or executed on the spot.

It is certainly possible that Varys played a role in telling the king that there was a secret Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy going on ... but we have no textual evidence for this so far. At this point it seems as if Aerys' other cronies fed him this idea. Or his own paranoia pushed him in that direction - like he also suddenly realized at Harrenhal that Jaime being a KG was actually a stupid idea.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

this first line seem to me a fair and accurate description of varys character. it does not seem to me either that he is interested in those things personally. I also believe that varys is of great affection to and for illyrio. if anyone could be called family to the eunuch, it would be the cheese monger. similarly, illyrio, who kept his dear sarra's hands, had a great love and affection for her. if illyrio would do it for sarra, than its not such a stretch to say varys would do it for illyrio (and the ultimate betterment of a realm).

Well, strangely enough, Illyrio is the guy who claims he has debts of affection to repay. Varys turned Illyrio into his rich and influential magister, so Illyrio owes Varys, not the other way around.

If Illyrio didn't lie about Serra then he may also feel indebted to her to some point, but I very much doubt that Lysene whore - even if she had Blackfyre ancestry - wanted Illyrio to use their son as a pawn in a very dangerous and possibly deadly political game rather than to set him up as a wealthy and powerful member of the Pentoshi elite.

Aegon is very much abused by Varys and Illyrio in the sense that they don't even tell him who he truly is if he isn't Rhaegar's son.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

of character we know, it seem most likely that illyrio is faegons real father, and he is not a blackfyre. if faegon were a blackfyre, he would have to be so on his mother's side. just as well and even more likely so, it could be as you say, she could have been a lysene whore. but at the same time , just as the dance of the dragons is important (or useful) to understanding the confit in asoiaf, so too must the backfyres, else they are just some background information of little import. that could be the case but it seem unlike to me that this important house should play such a small part in asoiaf. faegon and the golden company suggest to me that we the reader are suppose to at least suspect him a blackfyre. perhaps this is too meta reasoning, but it also seems a legitimate way to structure the conflict of the story to me. finally i would point out that while illyrio tells the story of his sarra to Tyrion, he also lies about several things, including who griff and young griff are. and if she were a blackfyre he would never tell tyrion, as it would be giving up the game. it would be saying, hey thats actually my son im trying to make king.

Oh, House Blackfyre being extinct in the male line could also mean that Illyrio's mother was the Blackfyre link. After all, it is also Illyrio who directs the Golden Company. There is no indication that Serra was part of that contract made in blood with Myles Toyne back in the day, nor was Serra present when Aegon was handed over to Jon Connington at Lys.

I'm not saying that it would make sense that Varys/Illyrio have no Blackfyre links at all. They need them to explain how it makes sense that they have so much sway with the Golden Company. But this doesn't mean Aegon has to have Blackfyre ancestry. They could actually play the Golden Company the same way they play Jon Connington - telling them what they want to hear. Connington they told Aegon was Rhaegar's son, Myles Toyne they may have told the boy was the son of some Blackfyre descendant. After all, if Varys were the guy with the Blackfyre root he couldn't possibly be the father of a child, so he may have falsely claimed the Serra woman or Illyrio also had Blackfyre roots. There were so many children of Daemon Blackfyre that folks may have lost track of the family tree.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

i agree that he doesn't have to be that loyal, even if by pretense he is. it seems his tenure has been ultimately detrimental in creating "the rot" in the realm if barristan is to be believed, but that could easily be a biased opinion. I also don't claim he is the mastermind, but is an important partner in the plot. it is not done for his own sake, which is why is important faegon was raised correctly. two goals in one package, a targ/blackfyre that actually cares for the people.

Basically, Varys seems to get the blame for a good part of Aerys' madness. But the guy went completely nuts because of Duskendale, and he wasn't exactly stable before that. That doesn't mean that Varys may not have given Aerys bad advice, but it strikes me as more likely that Varys the foreign eunuch just got the bulk of the blame for Aerys' madness ... like the twisted little monkey demon did get the bulk of the blame for the things that went bad during Joff's reign.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

its actually important to the plan that he doesn't destroy them, just weaken them and damage them enough for his mummers dragon to seize the throne with popular support.

Varys had considerable motivation to keep Westeros from exploding while he was preparing his Aegon ... but back during Aerys' day there is no reason why he shouldn't have done away with the Targaryens as quickly and efficiently as he could, especially if there was a Blackfyre pretender in the waiting.

And as I said - with the wildfire still out in the city: Why not burn the Baratheons and their friends all down? That would create the kind of power vacuum a Blackfyre pretender could use to set himself up as the new ruler. In such a scenario there would be no need for the silly Aegon plan. They could openly go with the Black Dragon banner.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

in fact dany as vis are important pawns in securing the dothraki and dorne respectively. faegon as aegon has a better claim than either, and an even better claim with their support.

The whole Dothaki plan is something that came up only rather recently - back in 283 AC Khal Drogo was still a young boy. Viserys and Daenerys were not important for the Aegon plan and technically Illyrio and Varys could have tried to make the kind of deal with the Dothraki on Aegon's rather than Viserys' behalf. They could have done away with Viserys at least, keeping Dany as a potential bride for Aegon or a Dothraki khal or somebody else.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Maia said:

We don't know anything about what was happening in Essos at the time, where the Golden Company was, etc. At which point the seriousness of the rebellion and Robert's popularity became clear to Varys, how long did he expect it to drag on, only for it to conclude so decisively. What schemes he may have been running that failed*. Etc. Ditto concerning Illyrio - we know nothing about what he was up to and can't reasonably conclude that he wasn't as or even more involved in whatever Varys was doing back then.

The buildup for the Rebellion covered 1-2 years, starting with Tywin's resignation through Harrenhal, the abduction, and the execution. And we can also assume that the earlier factionalism between the king and his heir - compared to the pre-Dance situation by Pycelle - also indicated that civil war was in the air.

It would be pretty weird if Varys and Illyrio failed to understand that and prepare their forces for it.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

In the series proper the events outran Varys too and the Golden Company wasn't standing at attention waiting for his and Illyrio's signal. Like, the support of the Reach was there for the taking after Renly's death, but fAegon and the Golden Company just weren't in position to take advantage of it. Timing is everything.

That is a different situation. They had a child pretender to educate and prepare, they had to secure the allegiance of allies like the Dothraki for their campaign, etc. The situation at Robert's court and in Westeros in general - with a lazy king and a weak dynasty running things - was much more volatile than the situation in the last years of the Mad King - where Tywin had kept things smooth and running until 281 AC.

At Robert's court everybody was sharpening their knives, from Dorne to the Wall, basically. And if Drogo hadn't died then the Dothraki would have invaded Westeros right in the middle of the War of the Five Kings, to maximal effect, one imagines.

And in the end the Golden Company are at the beck and call of Illyrio, no? When the signal is given they break their contract and march to Volantis.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

The fact remains that Varys sabotaged every Westerosi government that he claimed to serve over the period of more than 2 decades and there must be a reason for that. Ditto for the whole fAegon project. And no, I don't buy that it was all some social experiment aimed at creating a "perfect king". Or that after undermining Rhaegar as much as we now know he did, Varys suddenly discovered an undying devotion to his son.

Oh, but if Varys' endgame isn't the perfect king thing, then why did he call about that to dying Kevan and not about red dragons and black dragons and revenge plans decades in the making? It is also kind of weird to assume they were originally in the game to destroy the Targaryens and install the descendants of the Blackfyres and then turn that plan in its head with the Aegon plan which is basically a Targaryen restoration scheme. Even if Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son - him ruling as King Aegon VI Targaryen would perpetuate Targaryen rule. The Blackfyres wouldn't be vindicated at all.

And that Varys put Rhaegar and Aerys against each other isn't exactly established in great detail. We get general claims about Varys fueling the Mad King's paranoia and pointing out traitors ... but there is no indication there were no such traitors. There could have been rebel sympathizers at his court during the war, plots to murder him, etc. Prior to the war I don't think there was any of that sort, but as things escalated this is certainly possible.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

It wouldn't surprise me if Varys is a bastard of Maelys the Monstrous - the parallels between Egg preserving his cover by shaving his head and Varys's complete baldness are  far too on the nose. Being of "king's blood" may have been considered as particular boon  by the sorcerer who gelded him, if he shared some of Melisandre's beliefs. I think it likely that Illyrio is of a collateral Blackfyre ancestry as well - his change from a youth of overworldly beauty and martial prowess into a whale of a man is very like Aegon IV. Sera, I don't know, but we have only Illyrio's word that she was ever a whore and it isn't like the man is trustworthy. I mean, she might have been, even as a Blackfyre fallen on hard times, or she might just have been a Lyseni who could produce a child with proper appearance.

I don't think Varys can be close kin to Maelys Blackfyre. It would be very hard to swallow that they would then work closely with Barristan Selmy as their pawn. It was Barristan Selmy, after all, who slew Maelys Blackfyre. If revenge is part of their game then Selmy would have to pay more than many other people who are merely descendants of the people who defeated the Blackfyres again and again.

I could see Varys or Illyrio being close kin to that Daemon (IV) Blackfyre who was Maelys' cousin and who was killed by him when he took over the Golden Company. If Varys was a relation there then this could also help explain why Varys was born a slave in Lys - because Maelys' sold Daemon's daughter or sister into slavery. But, of course, Varys could easily just be an illegtimate descendant of a Targaryen or Blackfyre. Then it is pretty much irrelevant who his father is - it could even be Jaehaerys II or Aerys II during a tour of the Free Cities.

I'd also say that if George wanted to hit us on the head with Varys' heritage then Kevan could have seen silver-gold hair on Varys' head - the man could have stopped shaving while hiding beneath the Red Keep. Like Dunk saw silver-god stubble on Egg's head when seeing him again at Ashford. But there is nothing of that sort so far.

As for Serra: We only have Illyrio's word that this woman even existed. There certainly are hints he told the truth there, and one certainly can interpret Illyrio's current obesity as something the grew out of his prolonged sadness - first his wife died, and then he also sent Aegon to Connington.

But the idea that Serra of all people - who has only be mentioned by Illyrio so far and whose only function seems to be to possibly explain why Aegon has Valyrian features - is also involved in the political game is kind of far-fetched. We still don't know who Illyrio Mopatis actually is, after all.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

Hm, now it occurs to me that Varys's initial motivation could have been just revenge for the War of Ninepenny Kings and it only evolved into another plot to grab the throne later. I mean, not only was it a final triumph of Targaryens over the Blackfyres, but both Aerys and Tywin were there personally, etc.  

Then it is rather odd that Varys didn't personally take care of Aerys II and Tywin? Why did he allow Jaime to be the Kingslayer and didn't butcher Aerys himself? He had every opportunity to do so. And he is quite capable of murdering important people.

Of course, the Aegon plan is something they could have only come up after the Sack - either because Elia handed them Aegon on a golden platter or because they thought the manner of his death provided them with such an opportunity. But even then this whole thing is weird. Why would Illyrio, for instance, agree that his son be raised by Jon Connington rather than his loving father? And why go with the Targaryen ticket at all. If they create enough chaos they could just as well go with the Blackfyre name. They could count on the Golden Company.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

*One of his schemes that succeded IMHO was finally driving Aerys and Tywin apart, which was what made the rebellion possible in the first place. There was no way that he didn't know about Cersei sneaking out for her tryst with Jaime. In fact, the whole idea about making Jaime a KG may have come from him. Didn't Cersei tell Sansa how she considered Varys her loyal friend when she "first came to court" or something? Which, as we now know was during the reign of Aerys. 

She told Tyrion that, I think, not Sansa, but, yes, that's how I see that whole thing, too. Cersei on her own wouldn't come up with as weird a scheme as convincing Jaime to join the KG so they could be together - that sounds like an idea somebody else fed to her. Not to mention Cersei's confidence that Aerys II would actually accept Jaime as KG. People have speculated that she may have slept with Aerys to convince him of that - and there is some plausibility to the assumption that Aerys could have desired Cersei considering she looked just like her late mother - but this was at a time when Aerys had already made his solemn vow to only share the bed with his sister-wife - which resulted in the birth of Viserys - and Cersei herself, while often thinking about her obsession with Rhaegar in her POV, never indicates she was ever intimate with his father. All that makes it rather unlikely that she, personally, had close contact with the Mad King or the opportunity to influence him.

Insofar as what the motivation behind that thing may have been if Varys was behind it I don't know. He could have hurt both Aerys and Tywin much more if he had convinced the Mad King to execute Tywin - which should have been easily possible by faking evidence. Overall, the way Aerys and Tywin ended their relationship was curiously peaceful. It could have ended much worse - Tywin could have been goaded into making an attempt on Aerys' life, for instance, so I'm not sure that Varys wanted to create instability by getting rid of Tywin.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Okay, well, if I were Varys and I were motivated by a desire to get revenge for the Blackfyres and put one of their descendants on the Iron Throne I'd get my ducks in a row before I bothered taking a job with Aerys II at KL. Especially if the point of that job was to undermine House Targaryen from within. Meaning I cannot really buy the idea that Varys/Illyrio weren't ready with whatever they wanted to do when Varys moved to KL after Duskendale.

I think you raise an interesting question here regarding how varys came to the kings attention and gained his position. it is a very different situation if aerys heard of varys independently and if he heard of him as part of the conspiracy to have him hired. if it is the former than that would imply varys being hired was an extraordinary opportunity to supplant himself in the kings court, meaning if he did not take that opportunity it would be unlikely he would be able to take it later. to refuse a king may even be offensive to a king like aerys. if it is the latter, with the idea of varys becoming spymaster being a manipulation by varys/illyrio then that may suggest as you say, or otherwise still. similarly the former could suggest that varys did just take the job because it was a good position where he could eventually make change. still i would find such a solution realistic but disappointing.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Golden Company weren't with Varys/Illyrio in this then they shouldn't have bothered with the entire enterprise at all.

with a woman no, but if sarra was a blackfyre, and i will concede that is a big if, than her son, also under the presumption she would have children and a boy at that- another if, the existence of that child would be enough to gain the favor of the golden company, as young griff proves in gaining their support. under the gold the bittersteel is there motto. black or red a dragon is still a dragon.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but if you look at things Aerys II and his cronies apparently believed that Rhaegar and the Starks were conspiring against him and the Stark wrath about the Lyanna crown thing was just an elaborate deception on their part. This makes it exceedingly unlikely that Aerys II actually thought that Brandon truly threatened Rhaegar ... but even if he believed that: why would he want to punish Brandon for that if he himself no longer trusted his heir? That doesn't make much sense.

Even more importantly: Rickard and the fathers of Brandon's companions had nothing to do with Brandon's angry threats. Nothing at all. Aerys II would only draw those people into this if he thought this whole thing was part of a larger conspiracy. And we can assume that Rickard, especially, was accused of treason and conspiracy - most likely together with Rhaegar - and he demanded a trial-for-combat to defend against that accusation. Brandon couldn't really have demanded a trial-for-combat for his threats against Rhaegar because he could not reasonably deny that he made those threats. And if they were treason then Brandon was guilty even without a trial like, say, you are when you try to attack the king's person in front of witnesses. Then you also don't get a trial but can be slain or executed on the spot.

 I actually don't think ive read that. is it a part of a world of ice and fire or some other supplemental text? still what im reading here would suggest that varys or someone in the kings council was feeding the kings paranoias - and if this was varys it would ultimately lead to one of two reasonable conclusion- civil war like we see in roberts rebellion leading to deposition or a great straining of tensions between the great houses and weakening of the cohesion of the realm if the tags win or their is no war. instead of dorne supporting faegon, it could have very well been the north. altogether i still believes this means that varys is planning something at this point and while that does not necessitate a blackfyre sentiment it does not discourage such assumptions either. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, strangely enough, Illyrio is the guy who claims he has debts of affection to repay. Varys turned Illyrio into his rich and influential magister, so Illyrio owes Varys, not the other way around.

If Illyrio didn't lie about Serra then he may also feel indebted to her to some point, but I very much doubt that Lysene whore - even if she had Blackfyre ancestry - wanted Illyrio to use their son as a pawn in a very dangerous and possibly deadly political game rather than to set him up as a wealthy and powerful member of the Pentoshi elite.

Aegon is very much abused by Varys and Illyrio in the sense that they don't even tell him who he truly is if he isn't Rhaegar's son.

what i am suggesting is more mutual, which is why the education of faegon is so important. given their history one would do much for the other, even in assisting in a grand ambition. if varys is to do this thing, faegon better be a well rounded and intelligent individual. kingship must be his duty.

as to why serra and illyrio would what their son as king i think a quotes sum up my feeling well on the matter. im paraphrasing but after little finger gives the gates of the moon to royce he tells sansa "that men (parents basically) will do things for their children that they would never do for themselves." 

now i believe the whore of it may be a lie as well, but even if not that would mean sarra must have endured some degradation unbecoming of her status (it is conceivable of a highborn to think such at least). if you were the last dependent of a once great house made a whore, you may be vengeful towards the family that id it to you. you may even wish that your child could succeed where all prior ancestors failed.

in a way not telling faegon who he really is is a kindness. faegon believing who he is means he can never let slip is true identity of feel doubt in his right to rule.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, House Blackfyre being extinct in the male line could also mean that Illyrio's mother was the Blackfyre link. After all, it is also Illyrio who directs the Golden Company. There is no indication that Serra was part of that contract made in blood with Myles Toyne back in the day, nor was Serra present when Aegon was handed over to Jon Connington at Lys.

I'm not saying that it would make sense that Varys/Illyrio have no Blackfyre links at all. They need them to explain how it makes sense that they have so much sway with the Golden Company. But this doesn't mean Aegon has to have Blackfyre ancestry. They could actually play the Golden Company the same way they play Jon Connington - telling them what they want to hear. Connington they told Aegon was Rhaegar's son, Myles Toyne they may have told the boy was the son of some Blackfyre descendant. After all, if Varys were the guy with the Blackfyre root he couldn't possibly be the father of a child, so he may have falsely claimed the Serra woman or Illyrio also had Blackfyre roots. There were so many children of Daemon Blackfyre that folks may have lost track of the family tree.

I think this is a very possible way of looking at it. sarra having the physical traits suggest to me that it would be her, but fragile valaryen genealogy does not necessitate that.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Basically, Varys seems to get the blame for a good part of Aerys' madness. But the guy went completely nuts because of Duskendale, and he wasn't exactly stable before that. That doesn't mean that Varys may not have given Aerys bad advice, but it strikes me as more likely that Varys the foreign eunuch just got the bulk of the blame for Aerys' madness ... like the twisted little monkey demon did get the bulk of the blame for the things that went bad during Joff's reign.

Varys had considerable motivation to keep Westeros from exploding while he was preparing his Aegon ... but back during Aerys' day there is no reason why he shouldn't have done away with the Targaryens as quickly and efficiently as he could, especially if there was a Blackfyre pretender in the waiting.

And as I said - with the wildfire still out in the city: Why not burn the Baratheons and their friends all down? That would create the kind of power vacuum a Blackfyre pretender could use to set himself up as the new ruler. In such a scenario there would be no need for the silly Aegon plan. They could openly go with the Black Dragon banner.

The whole Dothaki plan is something that came up only rather recently - back in 283 AC Khal Drogo was still a young boy. Viserys and Daenerys were not important for the Aegon plan and technically Illyrio and Varys could have tried to make the kind of deal with the Dothraki on Aegon's rather than Viserys' behalf. They could have done away with Viserys at least, keeping Dany as a potential bride for Aegon or a Dothraki khal or somebody else.

thats first paragraph a fair criticism and proposition. as for the second, there is no harm is letting the targs go on as  long as they are making their own rule look bad. the point is for the other great lords to resent the targs. and if rhaegar was put aside that would leave only visarys as heir. deposed completely the realm would re-unify like it did under robert- which would have been fine if cerise and litterflinger went playing the game so desrticivily- most likely with varys understanding the damage they would do. with aerys dead he had to start over toppling to tower and again it took too early (as his discussion with iliryo in the dungeon shows.)

as for wildfire- he it didn't make sense for him to do it during the rebellion because it would cause like a million deaths and not change the fact that a new king would likely take over. or if it did splinter the real, it would make it so they would have to do a whole conquest instead of a rebellion. anyways we both know there a better post for the wildfire discussion right now.

I mean they only got hold of the two recently. miles toyne had them most of their childhood and each could be useful in any turn though marriage. those two certainly were pawns as shown by how illyrio used them. it was later part of the plan for sure, but they had faegons whole life to plan what they would do and compensate for changes due to the natural chaos of life.

is it really so much to claim a 16 year plan has actually been  a 25 year plan? things go wrong with either such stretches of time and things change easily well. if young griff died the plan would have failed. it is certainly a grand and fragile ambition.