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The most flawed part of ASOS


Canon Claude

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It really does seem like the plot in ASOS ground to a halt in order for Davos to convince Stannis to go north, and the plot also allowed Stannis to leave easily without interference from Tywin and pretty much anyone else. 
 

For a man who is clearly worried about what Stannis will do next, Tywin doesn’t do anything for the entirety of ASOS to besiege Dragonstone, or even send someone to take out Stannis via assassination. And it’s not like Tywin is above such a strategy; he spent the third book organizing the Red Wedding against an enemy who was basically defeated already.

And for a guy who is held up as a great military leader, Stannis doesn’t seem to do anything at all for months, just brooding and letting Melisandre run roughshod over everyone on the island. Did he really not consider that his enemies would be coming for him? But of course, his inaction was rewarded, since nobody *does* come for him until after he’s long gone.

Much as I like this series, it’s not without its flaws. The Stannis storyline was really clunky in the third book, and since we’re at it, his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy when you consider how many mammoths and giants were allegedly in Mance’s army. And never mind the giants. You’re telling me that 1500 knights managed to overrun tens of thousands of wildlings? I get that it’s GRRM aping Tolkien, who was aping Lord Tennyson, but Tolkien and GRRM forgot to add the part of Tennyson’s poem where the glorious cavalry charge failed.

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This is a very unjust take on the Stannis plotline.

2 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

For a man who is clearly worried about what Stannis will do next, Tywin doesn’t do anything for the entirety of ASOS to besiege Dragonstone, or even send someone to take out Stannis via assassination. And it’s not like Tywin is above such a strategy; he spent the third book organizing the Red Wedding against an enemy who was basically defeated already.

Tyrion's strategy at the Blackwater destroyed the royal fleet, on both sides. The only ships left were the Lysene fleet owned by Sallador Saan. Tywin had to wait until the Redwyne fleet travelled to the Narrow Sea, since they stayed out of the war by that point due to Paxter's sons being hostages. Tywin had no choice but wait until then before Dragonstone could be besieged.

2 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

And for a guy who is held up as a great military leader, Stannis doesn’t seem to do anything at all for months, just brooding and letting Melisandre run roughshod over everyone on the island. Did he really not consider that his enemies would be coming for him? But of course, his inaction was rewarded, since nobody *does* come for him until after he’s long gone.

Right, that's his character arc. He's hit with a disastrous failure for the first time in his life, and he's utterly depressed. Melisandre has a grip on him which Davos has to break through in order to remind Stannis who he is and what he's supposed to do. And as a result, Stannis is invigorated and embarks on a new journey to prove his worth as king. The King who Cared.

2 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy when you consider how many mammoths and giants were allegedly in Mance’s army. And never mind the giants. You’re telling me that 1500 knights managed to overrun tens of thousands of wildlings? I get that it’s GRRM aping Tolkien, who was aping Lord Tennyson, but Tolkien and GRRM forgot to add the part of Tennyson’s poem where the glorious cavalry charge failed.

You do have a point there, but you made a mistake; Tennyson was writing about history, and Tolkien and GRRM, no matter how much influence they took from history, are writing a fantasy series. But even with the fantasy element, there's precedence for a small, disciplined, and technologically superior army destroying a horde of ill-equipped, ill-trained, and disunited tribesmen. That sums up Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Hernan Cortes, and the Battle of Tolvajärvi. 

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3 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Stannis doesn’t seem to do anything at all for months,

It think Renly and Stannis represent two aspects of Robert's personality or evolution as a character:

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"Drink and stay quiet, the king is talking. I swear to you, I was never so alive as when I was winning this throne, or so dead as now that I've won it. And Cersei … I have Jon Arryn to thank for her. I had no wish to marry after Lyanna was taken from me, but Jon said the realm needed an heir. (AGoT, Eddard VII)

Renly represents the living Robert; Stannis the dead. Margaery represents Lyanna (recall that Renly showed her picture to Ned and asked whether she looked like Lyanna) and Selyse may represent Cersei. Or maybe Melisandre represents Cersei? Selyse, with her grey-scale-afflicted daughter, may represent the stone version of Lyanna viewed by Robert and Ned in the Winterfell crypt.

37 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Davos has to break through in order to remind Stannis who he is and what he's supposed to do

This seems correct to me, but there are some interesting details about the transformation of Davos that seem necessary before Stannis is "brought back to life." 

1. Davos smuggled onions into Storm's End to save Stannis and his garrison and household from a siege mounted by Mace Tyrell:

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The last time it was life I brought to Storm's End, shaped to look like onions. This time it is death, in the shape of Melisandre of Asshai. (Clash, Davos II)

The onions provided food for the trapped people but onions are root vegetables associated with the Underworld and, therefore, the afterlife. It would not surprise me if the "life" Davos fed to Stannis and his people was a rebirth into the afterlife. Stannis becomes a Lord of the Underworld. As a reward for his smuggling work, Stannis makes Davos the Onion Knight, giving him a permanent promotion into what might be a Charon role, the ferryman who transported souls across the River Styx. (We read more of his POVs so we accept that Davos is the good guy on the side of life and that Melisandre is the bad woman on the side of death. But what if Melisandre sees things from the opposite perspective? Maybe Davos is the Great Other, from her perspective, and only she is powerful enough to deal with him on behalf of Stannis. Maester Cressen and Melisandre drink from a wine glass that belonged to Davos.) 

2. Davos gives up his fingers to Stannis, accepting this punishment for smuggling. A loyal "Hand of the King" gesture. 

3. Davos drowns in the Battle of the Blackwater. Miraculously, he is washed up on a small island and he manages to survive or revive or something. 

4. Davos learns to read.

So Davos may be the force that is motivating a lot of action from Stannis, but he may also be a spirit of the Underworld when he is exerting his influence. 

3 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy

The wildlings didn't seem very well organized, equipped or experienced in military tactics. Jon Snow watches them when he is looking down at their camp by the Milkwater:

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There were men down in the valley, he saw now; many men, thousands, a huge host. Some were tearing great holes in the half-frozen ground, while others trained for war. He watched as a swarming mass of riders charged a shield wall, astride horses no larger than ants. The sound of their mock battle was a rustling of steel leaves, drifting faintly on the wind. Their encampment had no plan to it; he saw no ditches, no sharpened stakes, no neat rows of horse lines. Everywhere crude earthen shelters and hide tents sprouted haphazardly, like a pox on the face of the earth. He spied untidy mounds of hay, smelled goats and sheep, horses and pigs, dogs in great profusion. Tendrils of dark smoke rose from a thousand cookfires.

This is no army, no more than it is a town. This is a whole people come together. (Clash, Jon VII)

The army of Stannis would be much more disciplined and able to overpower the amateur efforts of the Free Folk. 

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Stannis is a joke as a political factor after the Blackwater, and Tywin doesn't have the means yet to deal with him. His priorities are doing away with the Starks - which he can - and Joff's wedding which is necessary to keep the Tyrells happy. Without them and the Redwyne fleet he cannot take on Stannis.

You have to keep in mind that not exactly much time passes in ASoS.

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11 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

The Stannis storyline was really clunky in the third book, and since we’re at it, his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy when you consider how many mammoths and giants were allegedly in Mance’s army. And never mind the giants. You’re telling me that 1500 knights managed to overrun tens of thousands of wildlings?

The only part I had any real problem with was the quoted bit. It felt more convenient for the plot rather than a realistic battle given the disparity between the armies.

In terms of Stannis staying on Dragonstone for so long I don't find that unrealistic. Tywin didn't have a navy he would need for that sort of amphibious assault and Stannis knew that. And he didn't have any good options.

My biggest problem with the plot in ASOIAF was the real culprit behind the Bran assassination attempt. The mystery behind that was what drew me into the books in the first place and then to find out there was no great plotting but merely Joffery's petulance that was behind the whole thing felt very underwhelming. It also didn't feel like a convincing motive while the explanation of how he got the dagger, how he found the man were all stretches imo.

 

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1 hour ago, Makk said:

The only part I had any real problem with was the quoted bit. It felt more convenient for the plot rather than a realistic battle given the disparity between the armies.

Why not? It's an army of well-armed veteran warriors on horseback, charging a large camp of unprepared peoples of all ages who aren't used to fighting alongside each other, and who are still using bronze when the other side is using steel. Panic, disunity, confusion, all of it played a factor, plus Stannis' ability to coordinate an attack which hits hard and fast, even though it's in unfamiliar terrain. Robb Stark did that four or five times during his campaigns, far as I can recall.

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21 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

For a man who is clearly worried about what Stannis will do next, Tywin doesn’t do anything for the entirety of ASOS to besiege Dragonstone, or even send someone to take out Stannis via assassination. And it’s not like Tywin is above such a strategy; he spent the third book organizing the Red Wedding against an enemy who was basically defeated already.

And for a guy who is held up as a great military leader, Stannis doesn’t seem to do anything at all for months, just brooding and letting Melisandre run roughshod over everyone on the island. Did he really not consider that his enemies would be coming for him? But of course, his inaction was rewarded, since nobody *does* come for him until after he’s long gone.

It has been calculated that the Battle of the Blackwater takes place in 18/Sep/299 (using our calendar), and that Stannis decided to depart to the North on 4/Jan/300. Just two and a half months. It's not that much time. And it's not like Stannis had many options after his resounding defeat.

During this time Tywin also had many pressing issues:  take over the government, rebuild King's Landing, reward his allies.... And in any case, he needed the Tyrells and their bannermen to assault Dragonstone, and the Tyrells wouldn't cooperate until Joffrey and Margaery had been wed.

And Tywin wasn't in a hurry. Most of his supporters had abandoned him at the time (surely Tywin had intervened in many cases), and Stannis only had 1,500 men with him at Dragonstone. He could harm Tywin in no significant way.

I don't see any problem with the timeline, to be honest.

21 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy when you consider how many mammoths and giants were allegedly in Mance’s army. And never mind the giants. You’re telling me that 1500 knights managed to overrun tens of thousands of wildlings?

The wildings were not an army, but a massive group of refugees fleeing from the Others. There were women and children among them. They were tired, hungry and ill-equipped, and had been caught by surprise. Their elite fighters had already been shattered in their previous assaults to the Wall. They were were undisciplined, had never fought together before, and had never faced an army of armored knights.

Again, I don't find the battle's result unrealistic at all.

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Twyin has Robb and Balon to worry about as well, who plot have their own armies, that are in much better shape than Stannis is at that point. Simply put, the realm was a mess and Stannis was the weakest one at that point.

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56 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

It has been calculated that the Battle of the Blackwater takes place in 18/Sep/299 (using our calendar), and that Stannis decided to depart to the North on 4/Jan/300. Just two and a half months. It's not that much time. And it's not like Stannis had many options after his resounding defeat.

During this time Tywin also had many pressing issues:  take over the government, rebuild King's Landing, reward his allies.... And in any case, he needed the Tyrells and their bannermen to assault Dragonstone, and the Tyrells wouldn't cooperate until Joffrey and Margaery had been wed.

And Tywin wasn't in a hurry. Most of his supporters had abandoned him at the time (surely Tywin had intervened in many cases), and Stannis only had 1,500 men with him at Dragonstone. He could harm Tywin in no significant way.

I don't see any problem with the timeline, to be honest.

I agree, I think the timeline is definitely reasonable. 

That said, time seems to pass very slowly in Asoiaf (to me at least) so it might not feel like only three months to some readers. 

Maybe I was influenced by the show and how visibly the child actors aged but when I first read the books I often forgot that things were happening at a very fast pace but described in such detail that it felt much slower. I remember thinking, how can Lollys still be pregnant, years must have passed since the Kings Landing riot? 

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22 hours ago, James Steller said:

Why not? It's an army of well-armed veteran warriors on horseback, charging a large camp of unprepared peoples of all ages who aren't used to fighting alongside each other, and who are still using bronze when the other side is using steel. Panic, disunity, confusion, all of it played a factor, plus Stannis' ability to coordinate an attack which hits hard and fast, even though it's in unfamiliar terrain. Robb Stark did that four or five times during his campaigns, far as I can recall.

It was a tiny army against a massive army. The wildlings were caught by surprise, were not well equipped and Mels magic helped against the Wargs, but the wildlings had a massive army. They had many giants and mammoths who from their descriptions in other ways were a massive presence on the battlefield. Another thing in their favor was desperation. They knew about the Others and knew that breaking and retreating pretty much meant certain death, but they broke anyway. Stannis did not display any particular tactics here, other than surprise. His mounted charge went into the middle of a much greater infantry force, getting encircled, which is exactly what you don't want to be doing with a small cavalry force.

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On 7/4/2021 at 7:52 AM, Canon Claude said:

For a man who is clearly worried about what Stannis will do next, Tywin doesn’t do anything for the entirety of ASOS to besiege Dragonstone, or even send someone to take out Stannis via assassination.

This is very, very, very true.

On 7/4/2021 at 7:52 AM, Canon Claude said:

And for a guy who is held up as a great military leader, Stannis doesn’t seem to do anything at all for months, just brooding and letting Melisandre run roughshod over everyone on the island. Did he really not consider that his enemies would be coming for him? But of course, his inaction was rewarded, since nobody *does* come for him until after he’s long gone.

Again. True. Well....mostly true.

Stannis doesn't do nothing. While he does just sulk and brood and let Melisandre run amok on Dragonstone, he also takes action against the other three kings. Granted, it's unorthodox in that it requires sorcery but hey. What can you do? It's not nothing.

On 7/4/2021 at 7:52 AM, Canon Claude said:

Much as I like this series, it’s not without its flaws. The Stannis storyline was really clunky in the third book, and since we’re at it, his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy when you consider how many mammoths and giants were allegedly in Mance’s army. And never mind the giants. You’re telling me that 1500 knights managed to overrun tens of thousands of wildlings? I get that it’s GRRM aping Tolkien, who was aping Lord Tennyson, but Tolkien and GRRM forgot to add the part of Tennyson’s poem where the glorious cavalry charge failed.

Mammoths and giants aside (right again you are), an small army that is disciplined, well-fed and well-equipped under the overall command of someone like Stannis can make short work out of an horde of undisciplined barbarians who, mind you, are already somewhat spent given that they had been besieging the Wall. Plus, said barbarians had their families with them. So they were more like armed refugees than soldiers.

But yeah. Stannis made a lot of really stupid errors out of stubbornness and entitlement. The man is just intractable and unyielding to a fault....literally. They repeatedly call Stannis just throughout the series but I don't view him as a just man. What is justice without mercy?

On 7/5/2021 at 9:12 AM, sifth said:

Twyin has Robb and Balon to worry about as well, who plot have their own armies, that are in much better shape than Stannis is at that point. Simply put, the realm was a mess and Stannis was the weakest one at that point.

Please.

Tywin didn't care about anyone apart from Robb. He didn't even lift a finger when it came to Balon; he ignored and enabled the ironborn the entire time.

Tywin respected and feared Stannis but he hated Robb...for many reasons.

 

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On 7/5/2021 at 4:18 PM, Lady_Qohor said:

Maybe I was influenced by the show and how visibly the child actors aged but when I first read the books I often forgot that things were happening at a very fast pace but described in such detail that it felt much slower. I remember thinking, how can Lollys still be pregnant, years must have passed since the Kings Landing riot? 

That is a result of AGoT covering roughly a year. You intuitively think the other, bigger books must cover a similar amount of time - or even more. Compare that to the fact that you have to wait years for the next book, and you have the explanation for this.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a result of AGoT covering roughly a year. You intuitively think the other, bigger books must cover a similar amount of time - or even more. Compare that to the fact that you have to wait years for the next book, and you have the explanation for this.

That probably contributed. Knowing me however, I think the visible aging of the actors also screwed up my own perception of the timeline

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On 7/4/2021 at 8:52 AM, Canon Claude said:

It really does seem like the plot in ASOS ground to a halt in order for Davos to convince Stannis to go north, and the plot also allowed Stannis to leave easily without interference from Tywin and pretty much anyone else. 
 

For a man who is clearly worried about what Stannis will do next, Tywin doesn’t do anything for the entirety of ASOS to besiege Dragonstone, or even send someone to take out Stannis via assassination. And it’s not like Tywin is above such a strategy; he spent the third book organizing the Red Wedding against an enemy who was basically defeated already.

And for a guy who is held up as a great military leader, Stannis doesn’t seem to do anything at all for months, just brooding and letting Melisandre run roughshod over everyone on the island. Did he really not consider that his enemies would be coming for him? But of course, his inaction was rewarded, since nobody *does* come for him until after he’s long gone.

Much as I like this series, it’s not without its flaws. The Stannis storyline was really clunky in the third book, and since we’re at it, his victory at the Wall felt absurdly easy when you consider how many mammoths and giants were allegedly in Mance’s army. And never mind the giants. You’re telling me that 1500 knights managed to overrun tens of thousands of wildlings? I get that it’s GRRM aping Tolkien, who was aping Lord Tennyson, but Tolkien and GRRM forgot to add the part of Tennyson’s poem where the glorious cavalry charge failed.

Tywin had to shore up the alliance with the Tyrells before marching/sailing on Stannis, which means it had to wait until after the wedding. He's in no hurry because it doesn't seem like Stannis has any options at this point. His army was destroyed, along with most of his navy; he has few friends, no money to hire sellswords . . . Who knew he would show up at the Wall? When he sailed from DS, it would appear to Tywin that he's going into exile.

Robb, meanwhile, still has an army and now he is back from the westerlands getting ready to shore up his own alliances with a wedding. So Robb takes precedence. And the plot to take down Robb was an opportunity that Tywin capitalized on. No such opportunity exists with Stannis.

You'd be amazed at what a division of mounted knights can do to unarmed, unmounted opponents, which is what the vast bulk of wildlings are. Knights are like the tanks of the medieval battlefield: virtually impervious to damage and capable of dealing significant damage to others. The only thing that can take out a mounted knight is another mounted knight, of which the wildlings have none. So sure, if the giants were mounted and prepared for battle, things might have gone differently, but they weren't so Stannis was able to tear through the wildling camp with little trouble. There were only about a hundred mounted giants IIRC, but they still put up the best resistance, standing with Mance even after he was unhorsed. But it wasn't enough.

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On 7/4/2021 at 7:52 AM, Canon Claude said:

And it’s not like Tywin is above such a strategy; he spent the third book organizing the Red Wedding against an enemy who was basically defeated already.

Robb had just finished raiding the Westerlands and still had a viable if diminished army. If he could get back North he could even raise another army. He was the bigger remaining threat. More importantly, Tywin was maneuvering for big political and territorial gain. The whole North was at stake, hence Tyrion's marriage to Sansa. Tywin was also going to be able to shape and control the Riverlands. All Stannis had was Dragonstone. Tywin had his priorities straight. Stannis was the enemy "who was basically defeated already" and little was at stake in finishing him off.

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14 hours ago, Groo said:

Robb had just finished raiding the Westerlands and still had a viable if diminished army. If he could get back North he could even raise another army. He was the bigger remaining threat. More importantly, Tywin was maneuvering for big political and territorial gain. The whole North was at stake, hence Tyrion's marriage to Sansa. Tywin was also going to be able to shape and control the Riverlands. All Stannis had was Dragonstone. Tywin had his priorities straight. Stannis was the enemy "who was basically defeated already" and little was at stake in finishing him off.

Well, Tywin isn’t the type to just let a defeated opponent be. Just ask the Reynes; after defeating Roger Reyne he diverted the water from a river into Castamere.

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7 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well, Tywin isn’t the type to just let a defeated opponent be. Just ask the Reynes; after defeating Roger Reyne he diverted the water from a river into Castamere.

Agreed. I didn't mean to imply that Tywin was just going to let Stannis be. The original post was questioning why Tywin spent all this time dealing with Robb and not immediately dealing with Stannis. My point is that Robb was the bigger priority which is why Tywin was dealing with him first. I'm sure Tywin was planning to eventually crush Stannis.

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"Why are you here in the city, Father?" he asked. "Shouldn't you be off fighting Lord Stannis or Robb Stark or someone?" And the sooner the better.

"Until Lord Redwyne brings his fleet up, we lack the ships to assail Dragonstone. It makes no matter. Stannis Baratheon's sun set on the Blackwater. As for Stark, the boy is still in the west, but a large force of northmen under Helman Tallhart and Robett Glover are descending toward Duskendale. I've sent Lord Tarly to meet them, while Ser Gregor drives up the kingsroad to cut off their retreat. Tallhart and Glover will be caught between them, with a third of Stark's strength."

Here is what Tywin himself says on the matter when asked by Tyrion. So basically Stannis was left alone for a time because

a) Tywin couldn't launch a naval assault.

b) He didn't consider Stannis a credible threat any longer.

c) His attention was more focused on Robb who had defeated the Lannisters every time and was currently pillaging his homeland.

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On 7/10/2021 at 5:44 PM, Groo said:

Robb had just finished raiding the Westerlands and still had a viable if diminished army. If he could get back North he could even raise another army. He was the bigger remaining threat. More importantly, Tywin was maneuvering for big political and territorial gain. The whole North was at stake, hence Tyrion's marriage to Sansa. Tywin was also going to be able to shape and control the Riverlands. All Stannis had was Dragonstone. Tywin had his priorities straight. Stannis was the enemy "who was basically defeated already" and little was at stake in finishing him off.

I thought the Ironborn were holding Moat Cailin at the time; considering how Tywin and Jaime overran the Riverlands in the first book and that Robb was primarily isolated in the Riverlands for most of the third, with Roose Bolton (in Tywin's pocket), they could force Robb to retreat up to Moat Cailin and let the Ironborn do their stuff.

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3 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

I thought the Ironborn were holding Moat Cailin at the time; considering how Tywin and Jaime overran the Riverlands in the first book and that Robb was primarily isolated in the Riverlands for most of the third, with Roose Bolton (in Tywin's pocket), they could force Robb to retreat up to Moat Cailin and let the Ironborn do their stuff.

Sure, although this is another version of dealing with Robb first over dealing with Stannis. Note that there's an important difference between an enemy that is boxed in and an enemy that has nowhere to go to. Robb was close to being trapped in the Riverlands but he had somewhere to go. He could rebuild if he could get back to the North. Stannis, on the other hand, didn't appear to have anywhere else to go. Again, my point is just about timing. The original poster was bothered by Stannis being ignored in the third book while Tywin kept focusing on Robb.

Apart from the logic of the situation, Stannis brooding at Dragonstone actually felt natural to me. Stannis didn't naturally attract followers. To get his army he had to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat with the shadow babies. After the Blackwater he was back to no army and few followers. No one was going to flock to his banner. In fact, I would say the world seemingly ignoring Stannis at Dragonstone is in keeping with his whole personality and character arc.  

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