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What if Doran died before the series or early on?


Angel Eyes

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This came from a post by @SeanF on the Will Doran get his whole family killed? thread.

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It's very hard to rationalise Doran's actions.  What if he dropped dead suddenly?  How is Arianne supposed to pick up his plans if she doesn't even know what they are?  He has left her very badly prepared for her task as Princess of Dorne, and at the same time now, given her the power to determine when to wage war (it's no longer a question of whether the Dornish will wage war, simply when).

Simply put, Doran had a lot of balls in the air circa the books, all connected to revenge on the Lannisters (the Viserys-Arianne marriage, Oberyn in King's Landing, Eastbound Frog). Unfortunately, all these hinge on his knowledge (or outdated knowledge). So the problem lies thus: what happens if he dies before 299 AC? Arianne is not privy to any of the plans, how can she pick up the pieces if she doesn't know there are pieces at all? How would she handle the question of war? Would all Doran's plots fall by the wayside because there's nobody directing them?

It's also telling that Doran does not trust Arianne with knowledge of her own fate or with his plots. As heir to Dorne she has a right to be trusted with her own fate. Sending Quentyn to Meereen is also a major plot that she was not privy to and involved one of her family members. If she can't keep tabs on her family as its head, how can she run a whole kingdom?

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Doran may not be the sharpest player in this game of thrones, but he's extremely cautious.  And he's obviously aware of his own poor health.  I'll bet that he has written down his plans and secrets, locked them away in some secret place (or several places; gotta have a backup copy), and given the key to some trusted friend (or several friends).  Maybe Areo Hotah is involved in that.  I get the feeling that he's going to turn out to be more than just a guard.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 7/13/2021 at 12:41 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

The story would have started in the middle of a Martell-Lannister war. Oberyn doesn’t have enough patience for a long revenge plan.  

And the Reach would be the warzone I guess, since the Lannisters and Martells are on opposite sides of the continent.

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On 7/12/2021 at 4:54 PM, Angel Eyes said:

This came from a post by @SeanF on the Will Doran get his whole family killed? thread.

Simply put, Doran had a lot of balls in the air circa the books, all connected to revenge on the Lannisters (the Viserys-Arianne marriage, Oberyn in King's Landing, Eastbound Frog). Unfortunately, all these hinge on his knowledge (or outdated knowledge). So the problem lies thus: what happens if he dies before 299 AC? Arianne is not privy to any of the plans, how can she pick up the pieces if she doesn't know there are pieces at all? How would she handle the question of war? Would all Doran's plots fall by the wayside because there's nobody directing them?

It's also telling that Doran does not trust Arianne with knowledge of her own fate or with his plots. As heir to Dorne she has a right to be trusted with her own fate. Sending Quentyn to Meereen is also a major plot that she was not privy to and involved one of her family members. If she can't keep tabs on her family as its head, how can she run a whole kingdom?

The only one of these that was in place before the books started was the Viserys-Arianne marriage. It seems likely that Oberyn and/or Mellario would have known about that. The Yronwoods obviously know about the Eastbound Frog. The whole Martel clan knows about the overt reason Oberyn went to King's Landing. At the moment, any covert objectives Oberyn had are still just speculation. So, the problem isn't that Doran is the only one who knows about various plots. The real problem is having kept Arianne in the dark for so long.

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Ariane does not know about Doran's plans and does not care much either... her first move would be to get herself ride of Quentyn, even after knowing Doran's plans she is paranoid of King Quentyn.

Then find a husband that is not a threat to her reign.

Oberyn would push her for war before Dorans body gets cold, but I belive she would wait, at least until Robert dies at least. Once the War of Five Kings Start, I can see her supporting Renly if he bothers to try this time or going full indepent.

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Depending on the nature of his death, I wonder if his hand would have been forced to tell her. That or to give some power to Oberyn over her rule & to reveal at the proper time.

No matter what, I do think Dorne is less subtle and tensions surface both sooner and with force:

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