International Events VI: Glorious Anarchy and Chaos!

[Arakan]

On 8/14/2021 at 11:08 PM, DMC said:

This is purely anecdotal and has nothing to do with what I was talking about - scholarly, i.e. peer reviewed, research.  I'm friends/colleagues with people who do this for a living and their research says your implicit assertion here is not supported by the data.  Nobody serious in the field would ever claim there's a causal inference between the US relaxing its influence in the Middle East and increasing Islamic-terrorist attacks upon the west.

Late but anyway. Islamist inspired terror attacks in France and Germany DID rise massively in the 2010s, compared to the 90s and 00s. That’s not anecdotal that’s a statistical fact.

The reason of course being that removing secular dictators and civil war chaos opened the gates, so to speak. Let’s be honest here. There is a reason why all Western countries threw their principles out of the window when they reinstalled an army-backed dictator (Sisi) in Egypt 2014. No US backing, no Sisi. 

Unfortunately Europe doesn’t has the advantage of two isolating oceans protecting them. We are, by far, the easiest reachable destination for imported fundamentalists plus the home supply. 

Another point: lone wolf attacks are much much more frightening than one or a few single big attacks. It can happen everywhere to everyone, be it on a commuter train, a Christmas market or a grocery shop, be it village or country town. Knives are cheap. It’s not all about absolute numbers. 

[DMC]

46 minutes ago, Arakan said:

Late but anyway. Islamist inspired terror attacks in France and Germany DID rise massively in the 2010s, compared to the 90s and 00s. That’s not anecdotal that’s a statistical fact.

 

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, Arakan said:

Late but anyway. Islamist inspired terror attacks in France and Germany DID rise massively in the 2010s, compared to the 90s and 00s. That’s not anecdotal that’s a statistical fact.

Let's bear in mind that the original claim was that Islamist terror attacks would rise in the West after the US retreat of Afghanistan because they had risen after the US retreat of Iraq.
That's making a wacky prediction based on a dubious causality about a debatable fact. For the academically-minded, that's like fifty shades of bullshit.

If we're being intellectually tolerant, I'll throw in some thoughts of my own.
First, terrorism was a far bigger problem in the West before 9/11 than after. The worst decades were the 1970s-1980s. In fact, even the 1990s were worse than the 2000s - according to the Global Terrorism Database of the University of Maryland.
This should help put the 2010s in perspective a bit, because when you talk of a "rise" of Islamist inspired terror attacks in the 2010s, that's compared to the 2000s.
If we turn the clock back a bit, something funny happens. First, there were far more terrorist causes in the 20th century. We had not just Islamists, but also nationalists (Corsicans, Basques, and Bretons in France for instance), the far-left (communists & anarchists), and the far-right.
But what's of particular interest to me is how even "Islamist" attacks were discussed. Take the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria for instance, that was a threat in France during my childhood... Funnily enough, at the time, people wouldn't exactly say that there were "people in the desert with a burning hatred of the West." In the 1990s, it was still understood that, while religion was a factor, it was one of several factors, that terrorism was not a blind nihilistic impulse for uncivilised barbarians, but the result of asymmetrical conflicts. France wasn't the target of the AIG because religious Algerians hated the West and the French "way of life." France was the target because of the historical and geopolitical ties between France and Algeria: that is, the colonisation, the independence war, and the support for the Algerian regime.
What's my point? That our understanding of terrorism was far better in previous decades than it is now. And I would speculate that this was because of the influence of Marxist thinking that sought to accurately describe geopolitical relationships and Western influence in the Middle-East. Such thinking was progressively purged from the media after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of neoliberalism as the dominant ideology.
So we get to a point where 9/11 is described in nihilistic terms and it takes a bit of googling to remember that, among other things, operation Southern Watch was an important factor, which goes a -very- long way to explain why the Saudis were involved.
And today, as the US is pulling out of Afghanistan, people are scared again. But what if "they" hate us so much that "they" will strike us on our soil?
Ironic.

[Tijgy]

In the last ten years we had elven + 1 (?)* terror attacks in Belgium while we had 14 incidents during 1950-2010. And those 14 includes four of  the Bende van Nijvel; nobody knows who they were and why they did what they did. So I am not sure you can qualify them as terror.

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lijst_van_terroristische_incidenten_in_België

* Jurgen Conings, far right extremist isn't mentioned (yet) on the list. But then he killed himself after he fled to a national park after he supposedly tried to kill an expert.

 

[Heartofice]

I think if you look at terrorist attacks in France it’s clear that they have been going on regularly for quite some time and pre 9/11.

From 2015 though since Charlie Hebdo there was a definite increase in the number and fatality rate, and also the methodology was far more brutal and intimate with stabbing and beheadings being common. 
 

So even if these attacks have been quite a common occurrence in France, they certainly seem to have escalated, and possibly become more the preserve of individuals rather than organisations? That’s my impression.

[Rippounet]

9 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

From 2015 though since Charlie Hebdo there was a definite increase in the number and fatality rate, and also the methodology was far more brutal and intimate with stabbing and beheadings being common. 

After 2015 the attacks have been so amateurish that hunting accidents are significantly more deadly.

It takes a lot of semantic twists to imply things are worse. They aren't, and there certainly isn't any "escalation." Beheadings are shocking, but far less deadly than explosives and assault rifles. 

[Heartofice]

7 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

After 2015 the attacks have been so amateurish that hunting accidents are significantly more deadly.

It takes a lot of semantic twists to imply things are worse. They aren't, and there certainly isn't any "escalation." Beheadings are shocking, but far less deadly than explosives and assault rifles. 

I’d say that the sheer amateurishness of the attacks, the decentralisation of them is part of the reason why people feel there are more. 
 

But on top of that the death toll is much higher and the victims are more likely to innocent bystanders. 

[Fez]

Not my area of expertise, but it seems really hard to get good data on terrorist attacks in Europe; at least, if you want them to be classified by type. Europol's TE-SAT report only covers 3 years at a time, so you'd need to dig up a bunch of old reports to piece together a trend line. CRS did that actually, but only going back to 2014: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/IF10561.pdf That report does show a big jump in jihadist attacks in 2015 that has been maintained since then. But I've no idea if 2014 was a blip or if it had been at that low level for prior years as well.

Meanwhile, the EUISS put out this report: https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Alert_4_Terrorism_in_Europe_0.pdf which shows a steady increase in attacks year-over-year starting in 2005; though the number are still far lower than the 1970-1995 period. However, that report doesn't break out attacks by type, so no idea how many are jihadist vs being nationalist or right- or left-wing attacks.

The 2021 TE-SAT report notes that the biggest jihadist threat is lone wolf attacks, and because of that (and possibly because of COVID complications) more attacks have been completed than thwarted in 2020. Attackers have very diverse backgrounds, but because of the small sample size it's impossible to draw conclusions.

[Fez]

In other news, the Afghan embassy in Tajikistan has recognized Amrullah Saleh as the President of Afghanistan. They've furthermore requested that Interpol put out an arrest warrant for Ashraf Ghani for stealing public funds. Which does put other countries in an interesting pickle, especially if more embassies follow suit. How many will recognize the Saleh government as the legitimate state, even though right now it only controls 1/34th of the the country?

Even without providing any direct aid, just releasing the currently frozen Afghan government bank accounts to their control would give an enormous boost.

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

But on top of that the death toll is much higher and the victims are more likely to innocent bystanders. 

What the fuck are you even talking about ? 

[Conflicting Thought]

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

But on top of that the death toll is much higher and the victims are more likely to innocent bystanders. 

The entire point is that no, the death toll has been decreasing for years.  Are you basing your acertions on anything other than what you think? 

[Conflicting Thought]

8 hours ago, Arakan said:

Late but anyway. Islamist inspired terror attacks in France and Germany DID rise massively in the 2010s, compared to the 90s and 00s. That’s not anecdotal that’s a statistical fact.

If its statistical fact can you provide a source of that pls

[Heartofice]

12 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

The entire point is that no, the death toll has been decreasing for years.  Are you basing your acertions on anything other than what you think? 

In France there were more injuries and deaths in 2015 and 2016 than all the other years added up. 

[Conflicting Thought]

2 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

In France there were more injuries and deaths in 2015 and 2016 than all the other years added up. 

All other years since when? Where is the source on that data. 

[Heartofice]

Just now, Conflicting Thought said:

All other years since when? Where is the source on that data. 

Just look it up on Wikipedia.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_France

[Arakan]

8 hours ago, DMC said:

 

What is up with you? Do you speak German? If so I will gladly  link you to the statistics. Jesus…

[Arakan]

39 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

If its statistical fact can you provide a source of that pls

https://www.verfassungsschutz.de/DE/themen/islamismus-und-islamistischer-terrorismus/zahlen-und-fakten/zahlen-und-fakten_node.html#doc678982bodyText4

https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/downloads/DE/veroeffentlichungen/2021/05/pmk-2020-uebersicht-hasskriminalitaet-entwicklung-fallzahlen.pdf;jsessionid=44783E5C1AA5660A2E9024A644F02611.1_cid295?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

 

In fact there was no Islamic terror in Germany of any relevance before 2015. 

[Heartofice]

2 minutes ago, Arakan said:

https://www.verfassungsschutz.de/DE/themen/islamismus-und-islamistischer-terrorismus/zahlen-und-fakten/zahlen-und-fakten_node.html#doc678982bodyText4

In fact there was no Islamic terror in Germany of any relevance before 2015. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Germany
 

Post 2000 you can see a big uptick in terror incidents and deaths from 2015

[Arakan]

7 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Germany
 

Post 2000 you can see a big uptick in terror incidents and deaths from 2015

People are in denial. When it comes to physical violence, Islamic AND Rightwing terror are a problem in Germany. The latter is nothing new, was always there at least since the Octoberfest bombings in Munich. Leftwing terrorism is mostly irrelevant since the factual dissolution of the RAF. 

The last Islamist motivated terror attack was in little, nice Würzburg in June 21 when a Somali stabbed to death 3 bystanders in the city Centre. 

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

People are in denial.

No, people look at the data and try to understand what it means so as not to jump to simplistic or silly conclusions.

For instance, my German is a bit rusty, but from the first link you posted I gather that:
- There have been 10 terror attacks in Germany since 2015.
- Out of these 10 attacks, half of them (5) resulted in casualties, and a single one resulted in more than 1 casualty (the Christmas market attack in Berlin).
- Out of these 10 attacks, only two were claimed by ISIS (two of the deadliest, including the Berlin attack). The others were done by "sympathizers" or people with "Islamic motives."

Of interest, I would say, is the conclusion:
 

Quote

Complex and multiple attacks, controlled by terrorist groups from abroad, have not yet taken place in Germany, but are conceivable at any time.
A dynamic threat situation can arise at any time, for example as a result of events critical of Islam such as the publication of caricatures of the Islamic prophet Muhammad.
Attacks by individual perpetrators, in particular, are an integral part of the terrorist strategy of violence and have been the dominant type of attack in recent years, sometimes with a high degree of effectiveness. In particular, the attempted attacks that became known from 2016 and the attacks actually carried out in Germany make it clear that predominantly less complex attack scenarios were carried out with means of crime that were easy to obtain and use.

So, mostly attacks by "lone wolves," generally not even directly affiliated to any group. And pretty much all were simple, low-tech attacks.

All this to reach this conclusion:

Quote

Another point: lone wolf attacks are much much more frightening than one or a few single big attacks.

Well, we're all different of course, but if you're more afraid of a random lunatic with a knife than a trained killer with a kalachnikov, I suggest something is wrong with you.

The November 2015 attack in Paris caused 130 victims and over 400 wounded in a single night. One coordinated series of attacks by one cell of an organized group. Many people I know suffered from this attack. My partner's cousin litterally dodged a bullet that night and saw her friends die in front of her for instance.
Now, I'm sorry, there's no way I can say this nicely, but arguing that lunatics with knives are more frightening or constitute an "escalation" compared to organized terror attacks is incredibly dumb.