They're Racist and We Know It - A UK Politics Thread

[Spockydog]

20 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Another big drop in cases today, -15k from last week. Let’s hope it continues.

 

Yes, here's hoping.

Scientists cautious over whether fall in UK Covid cases is a trend

Quote

 

The recent drop in new daily reported Covid cases in the UK has led some scientists to hope that the country has reached the peak of this wave – but others say the dip could be something of a mirage.

According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, about 1 in 75 people in the community in England had Covid in the week ending 17 July, up from 1 in 95 the week before. The survey suggests infection levels have also risen in Wales and Northern Ireland, although the trend in Scotland was unclear.

However, case data, based on those coming forward for testing – often once they have symptoms – is painting a different picture. On Friday 36,389 new cases of Covid were reported in the UK, down from 39,906 the day before and the sixth day in a row that cases were below the 54,674 figure reported on 17 July.

The decline has led some to voice cautious optimism. Tweeting about Thursday’s figures, Prof Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, wrote: “This could turn out to be the best Covid news of the day,” adding along with the prayer hands emoji that new cases in the UK appeared to be starting a descent.

But as so often in this pandemic, it will take time for the situation to become clear.

Dr Mike Tildesley of the University of Warwick, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), said it was impossible to tell whether the recent fall in cases meant the tide was starting to turn. “We really need to see a trend, and if this continues for the next week,” he said. “Right now it could be a blip.”

 

 

[DaveSumm]

To be a little more specific about the numbers, the fact that’s it’s dropped since midweek isn’t really the exciting news, it does that every week (peaks around Tue-Wed and gradually falls, with lowest figures Sun-Mon) - it’s that Wednesday was lower than the previous Wednesday, Thursday lower than the previous Thursday, etc. It hasn’t done that since early June I think. Most people were hoping the growth would slow further (i.e larger numbers, but larger by a smaller margin each week) so an actual drop is really something.

[Werthead]

15 minutes ago, Leap said:

The three day moving average for Thursday 22nd is still higher than that of the 15th, so I am concerned that there may be some unknown factor inflating the figures for last week and giving us a false peak. 

Yes. People are deleting the app.

(I can't be too judgemental here as I pointblank refused to ever install it, having seen firsthand the safeguards and measures the government takes when it comes to handling public data - i.e. sweet fuck all)

Hopefully that's not the only reason cases are falling despite opening up, but the figures don't seem to suggest we are anything close to seeing a herd immunity/vaccinate effect kicking in by itself yet, unless the vaccines are more effective at preventing transmission than it currently appears and they're firebreaking the spread of the virus. In that case we might see a continued drop, or a more jagged line on the graph of spreading and reduction, spreading and reduction etc.

[Heartofice]

Cases could be dropping just because people are deleting the app, but if you look at the change in case rises over the last few weeks it has been slowing gradually, then last week did a big jump and then dropped down again. That jump might well have been the football effect.

Its possible that we will see another rise due to opening , but since there has been almost no tangible changes since last week, given most people still seem to be wearing masks, it shouldn’t be dramatic 

[Raja]

We have no idea if 'most people are still wearing masks' - anecdotal evidence is anecdotal, and using it to make a general point about the whole country is intellectually lazy.

Drop in the numbers is great, hope it keeps up, we need all the help we can get at the front door/ ICU & to ensure services are not cancelled again.

[Heartofice]

Sure it’s anecdotal but on top of that most polls I’ve seen suggest people are going to keep up the mask wearing. Pure peer pressure, plus the fact that most shops and public transport are basically maintaining the rules.

And yeah anecdotally since last week, every bus and tube I’ve seen has had around 90% of people wearing masks, every shop I’ve been in I can count on one hand the amount of people not wearing them. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

But even then, are they going to wear their masks correctly? I see so many people here stateside who claim to still be masking up, but then you constantly see them just wearing it below their mouth, talking to people two feet in front of them who are also not wearing a mask correctly, if they have one at all. 

Shit, the hospital I work at has said we don't have to wear masks if we're fully vaccinated (honor system) while not interacting with patients. 

[Heartofice]

30 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But even then, are they going to wear their masks correctly? I see so many people here stateside who claim to still be masking up, but then you constantly see them just wearing it below their mouth, talking to people two feet in front of them who are also not wearing a mask correctly, if they have one at all. 

Shit, the hospital I work at has said we don't have to wear masks if we're fully vaccinated (honor system) while not interacting with patients. 

Sure but that’s not going to suddenly change just because the rules changed. Anyone not bothering to wear masks correctly probably never did 

[ljkeane]

49 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

And yeah anecdotally since last week, every bus and tube I’ve seen has had around 90% of people wearing masks, every shop I’ve been in I can count on one hand the amount of people not wearing them. 

Anecdotally I've found it to be completely the opposite. Before the rule change 90% plus of people were wearing face masks but since the 19th I'd say around a third to half of people aren't bothering anymore when I've been in shops.

[Fragile Bird]

The US media that I watch are all taking the position that the UK has decided to go for herd immunity at this point in time, that the government now no longer cares if you get infected.

Are they correct?

[Heartofice]

19 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Anecdotally I've found it to be completely the opposite. Before the rule change 90% plus of people were wearing face masks but since the 19th I'd say around a third to half of people aren't bothering anymore when I've been in shops.

I suspect different areas of the country would have different levels of conformity. 

[Heartofice]

2 minutes ago, L'oiseau français said:

The US media that I watch are all taking the position that the UK has decided to go for herd immunity at this point in time, that the government now no longer cares if you get infected.

Are they correct?

Not really. 

[BigFatCoward]

22 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Anecdotally I've found it to be completely the opposite. Before the rule change 90% plus of people were wearing face masks but since the 19th I'd say around a third to half of people aren't bothering anymore when I've been in shops.

That is my experience as well. And I honestly think I could predict mask wearing based on peoples appearance with 75% accuracy. 

[DaveSumm]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Yes. People are deleting the app.

If so, wouldn’t test numbers be affected? They stayed pretty strong for this period of decline, unless that’s about as much as they can process and so tests that were being performed on app-pinged people (obviously theoretically more likely to have  Covid) have been replaced with a more random assortment of people. 

But app deletion would also presumably be followed by a rise in people getting it, being symptomatic and testing anyway. Maybe we haven’t seen it yet, I’m not sure.

[Fragile Bird]

Wait…the UK featured Whitney Houston in concert by hologram last year? A show that will open in Vegas in the fall?  Any of you go to the creepy concert?

[Maltaran]

My experience of mask wearing in various places today:

Tesco: Almost everyone had a mask on. Only saw three people without, and one was an old lady who was almost certainly exempt anyway

Train into town: Of 10 or so people in the carriage, I was the only person wearing one

M&S: roughly half

Train home: maybe a third of people were masked

[SeanF]

31,000 cases today, compared to 54,000 last Saturday.  Now, I'm sure last Saturday's numbers were an outlier, caused by huge numbers gathering for the European cup.  But, it does look as if the UK as a whole is following the same trajectory as Scotland, but lagging Scotland by about a fortnight.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

Sure but that’s not going to suddenly change just because the rules changed. Anyone not bothering to wear masks correctly probably never did 

Hence why we can't rely on individuals to get us through this and why we need to coerce people into getting vaccinated. I'm happy to see more companies declaring that vaccination is a job requirement now.  

[DaveSumm]

16 minutes ago, SeanF said:

31,000 cases today, compared to 54,000 last Saturday.  Now, I'm sure last Saturday's numbers were an outlier, caused by huge numbers gathering for the European cup.  But, it does look as if the UK as a whole is following the same trajectory as Scotland, but lagging Scotland by about a fortnight.

That’s actually lower than the previous Saturday, a fortnight ago. Great news. Does seem that schools are the real conundrum here … it was clearly rife amongst that age group, and it’s incredibly tough to segregate kids effectively. On an individual level, the tiny risks of a vaccine just aren’t worth the tiny risks of Covid for that age group. But on a societal level, vaccinating all school age groups would bring such an enormous benefit.

Not sure what the answer is, just praying that six weeks off is enough for us to catch up on jabs for 20 somethings, and then when term comes back around hopefully we’re in good shape.

[Heartofice]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Hence why we can't rely on individuals to get us through this and why we need to coerce people into getting vaccinated. I'm happy to see more companies declaring that vaccination is a job requirement now.  

Well at least you honestly accept the coercion term. But yeah again depends. The Uk has very high levels of vaccination amongst vulnerable groups and the vaccines are doing their job here in terms of preventing death and lowering hospitalisations. 
 

So what is it we want from the vaccination programme now? As I posted up earlier, the goal of the UK vaccination programme was explicitly to protect the vulnerable, not to eliminate the virus completely. 
 

Im genuinely amazed that more people are not outraged by some of the illiberal policies being put forward right now. There might be a case for them has we been unable to vaccinate the vulnerable and people were still dying in large numbers but we have and they aren’t.

But that I guess is the level of fear we are living with now.