They're Racist and We Know It - A UK Politics Thread

[williamjm]

5 hours ago, Spockydog said:

I'd be interested to see some reliable stats on number of tests conducted. 'Cos I'm worried all we're seeing here is speculation mixed in with wishful thinking. I tried that link that Dave shared, but it's all gobbledygook to my ill-educated ass.

If the official government site for the statistics that all other websites will be getting their information from isn't reliable enough then I'm not sure what alternative there is.

On the front page they have a summary that compared to the previous week there were 36% fewer cases and 14% fewer tests.

The best way to settle the issue of whether the reduction is cases is due to fewer tests is when we get the results of the regular random population survey because that tests the same number of people each time, I'm not sure when that's next going to be updated.

[Spockydog]

Cases up, fewer tests, two days in a row.

The article says we should 'avoid drawing any conclusions' but I fear this isn't good. 

[Heartofice]

11 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Cases up, fewer tests, two days in a row.

The article says we should 'avoid drawing any conclusions' but I fear this isn't good. 

Jesus the media are being very deceptive here. ‘Cases have gone up’ is not really true as the general way of judging is whether they are higher from the week before. That isn’t the way they were measuring it when they were going up and it’s not how the Guardian measures it on it’s very own dashboard.

Because they are going down there is some odd reluctance to admit that cases are going down. Makes you have to try and wonder what their actual motivation is. 

[Which Tyler]

As ever, you need more data points to be able to identify a trend.

As for the most useful data to compare, I very much favour the rolling weekly as it takes out a lot of the background noise.

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Which Tyler said:

As ever, you need more data points to be able to identify a trend.

As for the most useful data to compare, I very much favour the rolling weekly as it takes out a lot of the background noise.

Exactly. It’s how we’ve talked about case numbers for seemingly forever .. so why is it suddenly we only talk about daily change when it tells a narrative that is more useful?

From what I can see cases are down 8k from last week?

 

[Werthead]

The independent ZOE COVID study has been largely in tune with the official figures but deviated sharply last week. Their tracking currently shows ~60,000 new cases a day, which seems in line with the way the figures were heading a fortnight ago before this abrupt about-face.

The ZOE study is based on swab testing and eliminates other tracking variables which produce confusing noise in the data.

The team behind the study are analysing what's causing the deviation between official figures and their data and have identified a drop in testing as a likely culprit, along with the official guidance still relying heavily on the OG COVID symptoms whilst the Delta variant is much more likely to cause different symptoms (with a strong headache by itself being much more common in Delta than in other variants, but not being regarded as a significant symptom in the official guidance).

[williamjm]

27 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The independent ZOE COVID study has been largely in tune with the official figures but deviated sharply last week. Their tracking currently shows ~60,000 new cases a day, which seems in line with the way the figures were heading a fortnight ago before this abrupt about-face.

It's a bit confusing because I went to the Zoe website to see what the figures were and their lead story today seems to contradict the Sky story (also from today), on his website Tim Spector is quoted as saying "ZOE data shows new COVID cases have stopped rising for the last week" whereas in the Sky story he is quoted as saying "He added that the ZOE study shows cases are on the rise".

Looking at their graphs it does look like it is showing a small fall in cases, although nowhere near as dramatic as the PHE figures.

The ZOE study is based on swab testing and eliminates other tracking variables which produce confusing noise in the data.

I think you might be thinking of the ONS or REACT studies, as I understand it the ZOE study is primarily based on people reporting their symptoms on an app.

The team behind the study are analysing what's causing the deviation between official figures and their data and

have identified a drop in testing as a likely culprit, along with the official guidance still relying heavily on the OG COVID symptoms whilst the Delta variant is much more likely to cause different symptoms (with a strong headache by itself being much more common in Delta than in other variants, but not being regarded as a significant symptom in the official guidance).

While expanding the list of symptoms to watch out for might make sense I'm not sure how a limited list of symptoms would suddenly cause a drop in the last week and not in the previous couple of months of Delta dominating Covid in the UK.

[Raja]

ONS/ React should update very soon. We'll know more then and those figures will be the ones with the least amount of bias/ confounding variables when compared to everything else.

Cases, Hospitalizations etc going down is great, but we should be cautious given the terrible 2 waves we've had so far ( 3 if you're in the north).

[The Anti-Targ]

5 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

As ever, you need more data points to be able to identify a trend.

As for the most useful data to compare, I very much favour the rolling weekly as it takes out a lot of the background noise.

There has very much been a typical 7-day rhythm with case number reporting in pretty much every country with daily case numbers being low on weekends and peaking some time mid-week. The 7-day period 20 July to 27 July was unusual in that there was an uninterrupted reduction in daily cases. So the last two days in a row reversing that trend and being consecutive increases on the previous day is somewhat more noteworthy than previous one or two day increases because of that prior 7 day pattern. But 2 days of data is not enough to know whether it is a sign that case numbers are on a longer time rise, or if there will be a levelling off, or if this is just a return to the normal 7-day cycle with a general downward direction. It is also worth nothing that since the daily peak for the current wave on 17 July this is the first time there has been 2 consecutive days of increased case numbers.

One day is an incident, 2 days is a coincidence, 3 days is starting to look like a pattern. So keep an eye out for tomorrow / today's number. But, 3 consecutive days of increase has been seen on the down-slope side of previous waves, so even if there is 3 days of daily increase does not mean a reversal or levelling. 4 days of consecutive increase, though, have only been seen on the up-slope or levelling off. So one or two days hence we will have a pretty good idea if there has been a change in pattern or not.

[Which Tyler]

Just done my graphs (from official data) for the rolling weekly.

There's a firm trend is reducing case rate for the last 10 days.

It's tentative yet, but it looks like the increase in hospitalisation rate has stalled. It's only 4 days worth, but it's a much more stable number.

Death rate is back up over the average (and standard deviation). As before though, there are too few data points to be anything more than "interesting". Latest data point is 16/07

[SeanF]

On 7/28/2021 at 1:16 PM, DaveSumm said:

Scroll down to the graph:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

It’s dropped a touch, but not 44% and nowhere near enough to explain the current drop in positive cases.

In order to check if the headline drop in cases is real, you need to look at hospital admissions after a lag of about 8 days.

And, yes, hospitalisations in England (whose numbers are the most up to date, going up to 28th July) are now falling week on week, from 783 to 728. This will start showing up in numbers for the UK as a whole, on Monday.

[Heartofice]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

In order to check if the headline drop in cases is real, you need to look at hospital admissions after a lag of about 8 days.

And, yes, hospitalisations in England (whose numbers are the most up to date, going up to 28th July) are now falling week on week, from 783 to 728. This will start showing up in numbers for the UK as a whole, on Monday.

The drop in hospitalisations is good news and to be expected given the drop in cases. Bed occupation dropped daily yesterday, but it’s a daily number so not worth paying much attention to. But general bed numbers seem to be around 4-5k, note that in January that number was 25k, so there is a big difference. Vaccinations work.

 

21 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

 

Death rate is back up over the average (and standard deviation). As before though, there are too few data points to be anything more than "interesting". Latest data point is 16/07

Worth mentioning excess deaths were previously below average and really we can’t expect an exact correlation on every single day, some days it’s above, some days below.

Given the tiny numbers of Covid deaths I still don’t think it even makes it into the ‘interesting’ category.

Case drops will probably slow, and might even rise again, it will be expected given changing behaviours and the crappy weather, but I don’t think it will be anything very scary or the sharp rise we saw earlier.

[Spockydog]

Latin. That'll fix things.

 

[Spockydog]

I used to love this guy. Bought his books, paid money to hear him speak. 

That was before his brain turned to butter. If I saw him now, I'd probably punch him in his jibbering, bullshit-spewing dangermouth.

[DaveSumm]

27 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I hope he gets Covid. Gets it hard. Hope he fucking dies of it. Horribly.

Put a fucking GB News livestream from his ICU bed as he takes his last, gammony breath. Force his entire family to watch. The cunt. 

Can you keep these kinds of things to yourself in future?

[Which Tyler]

31 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I used to love this guy. Bought his books, paid money to hear him speak.

Tad OTT there - but here's hoping that Alice absolutely slams him for this - even if she's classy enough to keep it private

[Spockydog]

13 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

Can you keep these kinds of things to yourself in future?

I am furious. With this guy, and the rest of his cohorts. Have edited my post, though the sentiment remains.

We do need to see the grim reality of this type of rhetoric and behaviour, every day, at 6pm on the news. We need to see the families of all the Covid deniers/vaccine refusers/anti-maskers, wailing and gnashing their teeth as they are told that, no, it is too late for the vaccine, and your mam is going to die now.

We need this forced down the throats of all the idiots out there. Otherwise, we are fucking doomed. Literally doomed.

 

[Spockydog]

18 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Tad OTT there - but here's hoping that Alice absolutely slams him for this - even if she's classy enough to keep it private

Yeah, perhaps. But he'd fucking deserve it, wouldn't he.

And I expect the ship has long sailed on his and Alice's friendship. Alarms started going off for me when Oliver did a documentary on the links between Scottish immigrants to America and the formation of the KKK. He seemed suspiciously excited by it all, and drew some ridiculous conclusions - that the founders of the KKK were just poor, misunderstood young men who only wanted to meet girls.

 

[Heartofice]

53 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I used to love this guy. Bought his books, paid money to hear him speak. 

That was before his brain turned to butter. If I saw him now, I'd probably punch him in his jibbering, bullshit-spewing dangermouth.

Had to go and check out the rest of that monologue as it’s obviously been cut to put out the absolute worst version of his position.. which will no doubt have people say absolutely disgusting things like hoping he dies of Covid. Seriously disgusting mate.

Anyway, the sentences around what’s in that clip have him stating that he is prepared to risk getting Covid if others have their freedom. Think that is a very different context, so as ever Spocky, please do some research instead of blindly linking to activists posts off Twitter.

That’s not to say Oliver is right or I agree with him, although he does make some valid points about freedom and calling people ‘plague rats’ ( something I first saw on this very forum) but if you think you are on the ‘good side’ when continuously putting out stuff that has to be taken down because it’s offensive or borderline threatening  then you should really have a rethink.

[Spockydog]

4 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Had to go and check out the rest of that monologue as it’s obviously been cut to put out the absolute worst version of his position.. which will no doubt have people say absolutely disgusting things like hoping he dies of Covid. Seriously disgusting mate.

Anyway, the sentences around what’s in that clip have him stating that he is prepared to risk getting Covid if others have their freedom. Think that is a very different context, so as ever Spocky, please do some research instead of blindly linking to activists posts off Twitter.

Oh, please. Have you seen the shit this guy has been spewing of late? This is by no means an isolated incident. He is one of the worst of them. He is an ignorant, selfish arsehole.