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Covid #35: I am the Alpha and the Omega.


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19 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

NZ-Aus travel bubble has been popped (by the NZ govt) for 8 weeks while some Aussie states try to get the current outbreak under control. A pity for those states / territories with no outbreak. But reality is the vast majority of travel is between the states that are experiencing active infection. My sister's travel plans have been turned upside down, but she will probably transfer flights to the Cook Islands, which is probably a lower risk of an outbreak than here. 

Probably a sensible precaution until vaccination rates in both countries increases dramatically. All states but NSW seem to be under control*, but NSW seems to be unable to get on top of this outbreak even with a pretty harsh lockdown.

*though I worry about this more recent case in Queensland.

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I'm not sure how much of that is demonisation of immigrant communities (by the usual suspects in the media) who tend to work heavily in those lower paid 'essential' jobs, and are much more interdependent generally, so of course are much more likely to get the virus. In any case the lockdown settings are pretty similar to Melbourne's during their outbreak last year,  which crushed the virus from a much higher level. And the statements from police are saying they're seeing good community compliance. But not being in NSW all I have to go on is the media reports and press conferences.

Victorian authorities are certainly saying they are seeing delta spread in settings they previously haven't - outdoor events. There's now a cluster associated with the MCG (as well as transmission at a France v Aus rugby game) which they actually kinda struggled getting on top of from a very low level. That may explain why NSW is having such a hard time of it vs Victoria's vanilla SARS-CoV-2 cluster last year (actually pretty sure it was D614G so not quite vanilla).

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And just like that the U.S. is back over 60,000 Daily New Cases even with a few states not even reporting yesterday.

I saw one projection yesterday, for the U.S. to be at 250,000 Daily New Cases by Halloween. 

I still feel the vast majority of the public is in complete denial of how badly things are likely to turn.

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5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

And just like that the U.S. is back over 60,000 Daily New Cases even with a few states not even reporting yesterday.

I saw one projection yesterday, for the U.S. to be at 250,000 Daily New Cases by Halloween. 

I still feel the vast majority of the public is in complete denial of how badly things are likely to turn.

I was wondering whether growing COVID cases would lead to an increase in vaccinations in the US.  Nothing visible at all.  Although, maybe some individual States have seen something.

In comparison France's decision to make vaccine mandatory for certain activities really did change its trend (at least for now).  Or Israel's Delta spike pushed up its numbers again.

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11 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I was wondering whether growing COVID cases would lead to an increase in vaccinations in the US.  Nothing visible at all.  Although, maybe some individual States have seen something.

In comparison France's decision to make vaccine mandatory for certain activities really did change its trend (at least for now).  Or Israel's Delta spike pushed up its numbers again.

I think we're going to have to see a significant increase in deaths before vaccine uptake increases. Amazing quote in the story below with appropriate kicker. The fact that 96% of practicing doctors have been vaccinated should end all argument. That fact should be plastered everywhere - end every news story, every article, etc. etc. Not that ALL doctors are 100% informed, however that is clearly the group with the most knowledge and understanding of vaccines and COVID-19. Folks that pretend they know better than that group - as a whole - are delusional and should be treated as such.

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"I try to be very non-judgmental when I'm getting a new COVID patient that's unvaccinated, but I really just started asking them, "Why haven't you gotten the vaccine?" And I'll just ask it point-blank, in the least judgmental way possible. And most of them, they're very honest, they give me answers. "I talked to this person, I saw this thing on Facebook, I got this email, I saw this on the news," you know, these are all the reasons that I didn’t get vaccinated.

 

And the one question that I always ask them is, did you make an appointment with your primary care doctor and ask them for their opinion on whether or not you should receive the vaccine? And so far, nobody has answered yes to that question."

 

A recent poll by the American Medical Association found that more than 96 percent of practicing doctors have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. And of those remaining, 45 percent said they plan to get vaccinated.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/get-vaccinated-take-delta-seriously-us-experts-plead-as-cases-skyrocket/

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We’re going to have to start forcing people to get vaccinated here. Too many people are simply being ignorant. Funny how conservatives politicians and media influencers are being to change their tune. I sure it has nothing to do with their big money backers being worried that the economy could tank if we have to go on lockdown….

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

We’re going to have to start forcing people to get vaccinated here. Too many people are simply being ignorant. Funny how conservatives politicians and media influencers are being to change their tune. I sure it has nothing to do with their big money backers being worried that the economy could tank if we have to go on lockdown….

I hope so - it just seems politically impossible. GOP is so nuts on local levels that they shriek 'HIPPAH' at the mere suggestion of vaccines.

The current fight over the NFL may be a bellwether - soberly allowing a choice of vaccination and limited restrictions or no-vaxx and high restrictions as a path forward. Then again - violence on planes and in stores over *mask* mandates have not gone well...

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2 minutes ago, Leap said:

Only 96%?

Heh, yeah, that's what I thought too.

The UK's percentage of the adult population vaccinated statistic on the government website has gone down because they they've updated the population estimate used to calculate it. That's entirely reasonable and also a little depressing. It does look we've pretty much topped out with how many adults are going to get vaccinated at this point with daily figures for 1st doses dropping down below 50,000 a day. 

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Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, But Largely Prevents Severe Illness, Israel Study Suggests

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/07/23/pfizer-shot-just-39-effective-against-delta-infection-but-largely-prevents-severe-illness-israel-study-suggests/

I don't know how reliable is this. There have been critics online because Israel is not sharing its methodology nor raw numbers.

(I got the second dose last Tuesday. I was hesitant because I've been feeling not great since the first dose and also because it really seems that spacing doses is overall better in terms of protection and side effects)

 

 

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1 hour ago, kairparavel said:

Yes. All the other medications jammed down his throat to treat Covid is perfectly ok.

For a large percent of folks it seems to just boil down to 'mommy/daddy told me to do it, so I am going to do the opposite.'  He has a problem with taking the vaccine because its part of the government's agenda to save lives...

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As I've been saying for some time, I agree with the strategy of governments and businesses heavily coercing people to get vaxxed. Do so or lose any and all privileges they can strip people of.

The club (as in cavemans club) approach, I fully embrace it.

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

We’re going to have to start forcing people to get vaccinated here. Too many people are simply being ignorant. Funny how conservatives politicians and media influencers are being to change their tune.

Kay Ivey is not fucking around:

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“It’s time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks, not the regular folks,” said Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, per CBS 42 in Birmingham. “It’s the unvaccinated folks that are letting us down.”

Ivey, who was vaccinated in December, also seemed to throw some shade at Fox News and other right-wing media outlets. 

“Media, I want you to start reporting the facts,” she said. “The new cases of COVID are because of unvaccinated folks. Almost 100 percent of the new hospitalizations are with unvaccinated folks. And the deaths are certainly occurring with the unvaccinated folks.”

 

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Private businesses like some restaurants in LA and D.C. are mandating proof of vaccination.  Others in LA have to shut down because so many staff sick and / or positive, and staffing's a problem anyway.  This is what will do it, probably, that and the Big Money Market Boys who really see what Delta globally is and will do to their markets.

This trend is going to continue.  I'm seeing it in comments sections to reporting on the spread of Delta. Most of us are getting very very very angry at These enemies of the people for putting everyone else in danger and the economy and hospitals too.  I'm even seeing this among health care workers now, wondering just why the hell am I fighting to save the life this jerkwad who refused vaccination -- I'm exhausted and he is the reason.

As the media, as well as myself, came to call the tRumpist cultists death cultists, I'm seeing comments using enemy of the people frequently now instead of anti-vaxxer.  A bit of sneer dimension there, but essentially its usage is in good faith.  (Don't tell Ser though.)

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I don't understand why the CDC/FDA doesn't grant full authorization for the vaccines (rather than emergency authorization).  The vaccines have been studied relentlessly, and at this point have been given to hundreds of millions of people across the globe with minimal side effects. 

Once full (non emergency) authorization is given, it frees up a lot of places like schools and businesses to require vaccination for health reasons.  I'm not saying that all or even most will make that decision, but some will, and that will help.  Even if it only convinced/coerced another 1% of the US population to get vaccinated, that could realistically still save thousands of lives. 

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https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/suddenly-some-republicans-are-all-in-on-the-vaccine (paywall, though this might be free, due to the subject matter of covid)

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. . . .The Republican pollster Glen Bolger told me that he didn’t think the G.O.P.’s about-face stemmed from a sudden fear of electoral debacle so much as a reflection of the alarming trend lines in red America. Until now, “Republicans felt like we don’t necessarily need to push on vaccines and tick off a significant portion of our base, so we won’t talk about it,” Bolger said. But, with cases increasing, that calculus changed. “It’s more of ‘Hey, guess who’s getting sick? Republicans,’ ” he said. Red America is facing a deadly fourth wave of the pandemic, and Republican politicians, or at least some, appear to have decided that they don’t want to take the blame for killing off their own voters.

President Biden certainly noticed the rhetorical shift. “They’ve had an altar call, some of those guys,” Biden said, during a CNN town hall on Wednesday night. “All of a sudden, they’re out there saying, ‘Let’s get vaccinated, let’s get vaccinated.’ . . . That’s good.” But Biden is having to do his own, somewhat less egregious, version of backpedalling, too. The President had set a goal of seventy per cent of American adults being vaccinated by July 4th. Even though that didn’t happen, he went ahead with a huge party at the White House for some thousand mostly unmasked guests, including first responders and essential workers who’ve spent the past sixteen months battling the pandemic—Independence Day from the disease being the not very subtle message. But math is math, and the numbers are not good. On Wednesday night, at the town hall, Biden suggested that schoolchildren would probably have to wear masks when in-person classes resume this fall, and foreshadowed the reimposition of indoor mask mandates for the broader population that may soon be coming. (Confusingly, Biden added, “But this is not a pandemic.” Earlier, the President got the new reality right: “Look, the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated.”) On Thursday, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, also seemed to indicate that such measures may be back on the table, with decisions to be “driven by the C.D.C.” She added, “We’ve never said that battle is over.”...

 

The bolded ... huh, one does wonder if that is it, or not. They've not worried before about their base getting dead, even advising them to drink bleach. Plus you know, the latest reports report political polling is pretty much a disaster at this point -- the WaPo did a big report on that just a few days ago. Again, where covid and politics intersect.  As further down, the article's author says:

Quote

. . . .All the drearily predictable talking points reminded me that, if there’s one thing we’ve all learned by now in the pandemic, it’s that public health and politics are one and the same: there is no way to separate them. . . .

 

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