Covid #35: I am the Alpha and the Omega.

[Theda Baratheon]

my food taste like nothing  im so bummed out 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Theda Baratheon said:

my food taste like nothing  im so bummed out 

Here's hoping you get through this and recover quickly.

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, Theda Baratheon said:

my food taste like nothing  im so bummed out 

I hope you get well soon. Stay strong.

[A wilding]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Obviously there are always lots of factors at play such as the ones that you mentioned, but from what I've read, behavior has changed somewhat, but not dramatically in the past 3 weeks, and yet cases have gone from skyrocketing to dropping.  I'm trying to come up with an explanation for how that is possible.  The list you provided does not strike me as sufficient for such a dramatic change. 

One factor that people outside the UK may not be aware of is the recent wall to wall coverage in the UK of what the tabloids have dubbed the "pingdemic" - the current surge in cases resulting in many hundreds of thousands of people being pinged to say they had been in contact with an infected person and needed to isolate for a fortnight, leading to widespread hits to a whole range of infrastructure and services. This was associated with a massive campaign demanding that the government remove the requirement for self isolation for various groups of "key" workers (and of course Johnson himself tried to get out of self isolating when he was pinged a couple of weeks back). Also combine this with the fact that large numbers of people can't economically afford to self isolate, and the widespread anecdotal evidence of people deleting their tracking apps so as to avoid being pinged.

I fear that the recent sudden precipitous drop of recorded cases in the UK may somehow be at least partly to do with all this.

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

https://quillette.com/2021/07/28/vaccines-and-the-coronavirus-crank-crisis/

Interesting.  I like his point that the false positivity rate can't be higher than the positivity rate.

He also thinks that COVID is here to stay.   I suppose he is probably right (although i'd be curious to read his logic for that).  Interestingly, Ireland has just approved the vaccine for 12-15 year olds.  Part of the logic was that they talked to parents and teenagers and (so they claim) most teenagers wanted to be vaccinated for mental health reasons (they didn't want to feel that they could give the vaccine to granny and wanted to feel less inhibited).  But the articles's point is that beyond teenagers' personal wishes, from a public health pov it doesn't make a difference.

6 hours ago, L'oiseau français said:

They also say younger people who get a third, booster shot see anti-bodies increase 5x, but older people who get a booster shot see antibodies increase 11x.

Did they say whether both groups had the same amount of anti-bodies pre booster though?  If younger people started with more anti-bodies, then there is less of a difference (ignoring T-Cells etc).

2 hours ago, Theda Baratheon said:

my food taste like nothing  im so bummed out 

Wishing you a very quick recovery!

[williamjm]

9 hours ago, Theda Baratheon said:

I don’t know what this thread is for cos I’m tired n I don’t wanna read it all but it says covid so I’m assuming that’s what it is 

anyway I have the dreaded Corona and whilst it totally royally sucks and has knocked me for six it’s actually a nice relief to let myself be ILL for once. Don’t get me wrong I’d rather be healthy and not ill whatsoever but usually when I’m ill I try and power through as quickly as possible but this time fucj it I’m alread isolating and it’s covid, it can be serious, so am just letting myself be proper ill and actually in the long run this will get me through it much quicker and be much healthier than trying to push through it and ending up slightly run down for weeks or months on end which is what I’ve done plenty of times in the past being ill 

Anyway it sucks but I had a nice personal epiphany & hope I make the most of things a bit more when I’m better that’s it thanks 

I hope you feel better soon Theda. I think concentrating on recuperating is definitely the right approach.

4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I dunno. Scotland’s cases dropped and I don’t know if schools closed earlier there than in England, and English schools haven’t all closed at the same time either. 
It’s one of the factors but I wouldn’t over play it 

Scottish schools always start their summer holidays earlier.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Interesting.  I like his point that the false positivity rate can't be higher than the positivity rate.

Did they say whether both groups had the same amount of anti-bodies pre booster though?  If younger people started with more anti-bodies, then there is less of a difference (ignoring T-Cells etc).

No, it was a quick rundown of their earnings report and comments about the year. There might be a press release with more details, though.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

12 hours ago, Theda Baratheon said:

I don’t know what this thread is for cos I’m tired n I don’t wanna read it all but it says covid so I’m assuming that’s what it is 

anyway I have the dreaded Corona and whilst it totally royally sucks and has knocked me for six it’s actually a nice relief to let myself be ILL for once. Don’t get me wrong I’d rather be healthy and not ill whatsoever but usually when I’m ill I try and power through as quickly as possible but this time fucj it I’m alread isolating and it’s covid, it can be serious, so am just letting myself be proper ill and actually in the long run this will get me through it much quicker and be much healthier than trying to push through it and ending up slightly run down for weeks or months on end which is what I’ve done plenty of times in the past being ill 

Anyway it sucks but I had a nice personal epiphany & hope I make the most of things a bit more when I’m better that’s it thanks 

Feel better soon and keep taking care of yourself!

9 hours ago, L'oiseau français said:

Pfizer reported today that they think they will have enough data by the end of September for vaccinating 5 to 12 year olds. They also say younger people who get a third, booster shot see anti-bodies increase 5x, but older people who get a booster shot see antibodies increase 11x.

I’m so very hopeful.  I wish it would be in place by school opening, but alas.  However, I got an email from my son’s school today saying that they are requiring 12+ to be vaccinated to enter the building.  That is HUGE.  It’s such a relief. My son isn’t eligible yet, but now every person in the building that IS eligible will be vaccinated.  They did a great job managing everything last year and so am very hopeful that this will continue.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

7 hours ago, Theda Baratheon said:

my food taste like nothing  im so bummed out 

With the English cuisine, isn't that like an actual improvement?

Nah, seriously, hope you get better soon.

[The Anti-Targ]

12 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

People here are looking at the UK and saying that Delta is harmless and that it is just a test pandemic now. I kinda wish they are right but I doubt it. 

Declaring the pandemic over at this point is premature. It might indeed be over now for some countries, but it is too early to say that even for them. More water needs to pass under the bridge before it can be stated with scientific certainty. Buyt be hopeful that the end is in sight for some countries. Foir other countries they are still well in the grip of lots of cases, lots of severe illness and too much death. So it is it pretty dismissive of a lot of the world to say it's only a test pandemic.

Also for countries that are still working on reaching immunity by vaccination with a largely naive population (NZ, Aussie etc) the pandemic is far from over. If it gets in here in a big way there is a lot of death and suffering that will follow. So we will be keeping things under tight control at the border for some time yet. People won't be coming here for holidays or Lord of the Rings tours, even if vaccinated, until at least mid 2022 I think. And after then, if you are anti-vax non-resident you won't get in.

[Impmk2]

2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Also for countries that are still working on reaching immunity by vaccination with a largely naive population (NZ, Aussie etc) the pandemic is far from over. If it gets in here in a big way there is a lot of death and suffering that will follow. So we will be keeping things under tight control at the border for some time yet. People won't be coming here for holidays or Lord of the Rings tours, even if vaccinated, until at least mid 2022 I think. And after then, if you are anti-vax non-resident you won't get in.

Out of interest, how are the politics around the vaccine rollout playing in NZ? You seem on a similar trajectory / timeline to Australia, and the government here has been under a lot of fire, even before the Sydney outbreak.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

Out of interest, how are the politics around the vaccine rollout playing in NZ? You seem on a similar trajectory / timeline to Australia, and the government here has been under a lot of fire, even before the Sydney outbreak.

The govt announced a vaccination timeline with phases that officially brought in younger age groups (they've just started officially vaccinating the over 60's) with a plan to make the vaccine to all age groups (for which the vaccine is approved, over 18s only 5 think for now). And they have a graph on the ministry of health website showing vaccinations are tracking slightly ahead of the planned timeline. But, it is not a very ambitious target, because we have the capacity to vaccinate about 50K per day, but I think the max single day achievement has been 30K so far. So it's easy to meet targets that are well below your maximum capacity. Lots of people under the official age rollout are getting vaccinated. My friend took her mother to be vaccinated several weeks ago, and the staff just said, "well since you're here do you want to get vaccinated too?" My wife got contacted to come in for a vaccination because she is asthmatic and has high blood pressure, So I tagged along as a "support" person, and they said no probs, you can get a shot too. But there are parts of the country where vaccination rates are lagging, and most of those parts are where there is a high proportion of Maori, and there does not seem to be an acceptable explanation for that (i.e. vaccine hesitancy does not appear to be higher among Maori than the rest of the population). So some regional health authorities are getting stick for doing a bad job.

I think the main point of contention media and politics wise is more about opening up to travel. More people (and some medical academics) are wanting to start allowing double jabbed people to travel more freely (e.g. get a test before coming in to the country, self isolate privately for 3 or 5 days and get another test). But the problem with that is enforcement of self-isolation and the fact that up to 20% of double jabbed people who come into contact with Delta COVID will get infected and can transmit. So I think for the vaccination rate we have at present it is too dangerous to dispense with 14 day quarantine even for double jabbed people at this point in time. My personal level of comfort in opening up to double jabbed arrivals would be when we hit 80% of the population double jabbed. My level of comfort in opening up to the un-vaxxed would be never. Or at least not until COVID is functionally eradicated. If you can't go to some countries unless you've had the yellow fever jab, then I don't see any reason why entry to a country can't be conditioned on a COVID jab. If you don't like it, you are free to travel to a country that will take you.

It would also be a good cover for keeping people who want to promote all manner of fringe ideas out, who probably significantly cross over to the anti-vaxx.

[Fragile Bird]

My brother was telling me he spent some time on the cruise ship boards last night (we had joked the other day about booking a cruise) and it sounds like the cruise companies have eliminated Canadians from their customer lists. Royal Caribbean, for example, has these two rules, among others: people who have received two different vaccines are not considered vaccinated, and people who have had their second shot more than 42 days after their first shot will not be considered vaccinated.

F**k them.

[DireWolfSpirit]

U.S. over 84,000 Daily New Cases yesterday.......and climbing.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I said it before at the time and it’s proving true, once you tell Americans they can take their masks off they’ll never put them back on with the in evitable next wave comes. This is going to be the new normal because far too many people are selfish pieces of human garbage.

[DireWolfSpirit]

44 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I said it before at the time and it’s proving true, once you tell Americans they can take their masks off they’ll never put them back on with the in evitable next wave comes. This is going to be the new normal because far too many people are selfish pieces of human garbage.

Well our elections are Full Stop proof that about 40 percent, if not more, of Americans cannot stand other Americans.

With that type of prevalent haterology, it will be nearly impossible to be our brothers keepers (hence no masking).

[Gorn]

23 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I'm not sure how unique the UK and Ireland have been in pumping out nutcases in regards to Covid misinformation, but recent protests suggests there are quite a lot in this country. So bottom of the barrel are the anti vax 5G lunatics, but slightly above them are the Lockdown / Covid deniers who have tried to twist every single event since the crisis to suit their narrative that either lockdowns dont work, covid doesn't exist.. its a casedemic etc.

Its been very entertaining watching some of the back and forth between some of their cheerleaders and Christopher Snowden who has taken it upon himself to wreck most of their arguments and spend his day humilating them.

He's written a couple of articles on it, this is the second, more recent update. Its an entertaining read and really highlights how misinformation has been spreading, peoples inability or disinterest in looking deeper at facts and stats

https://quillette.com/2021/07/28/vaccines-and-the-coronavirus-crank-crisis/


 

An excellent article, thanks for sharing it. I particularly liked the closing part:

Quote

 

Once we see the vaccines as being primarily about self-preservation rather than collective protection, it is difficult to make the case for vaccinating children (unless they want to be vaccinated) and the argument for vaccine passports under any circumstances is much weaker. But it leaves anti-vaxxers in an unusual and precarious position. They normally get a free ride on other people’s willingness to protect themselves. Society can tolerate a small number of people not vaccinating their children for measles, for example, because outbreaks cannot occur so long as the vast majority are inoculated.

But without herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2, the refuseniks are on their own. They are facing an endemic disease armed with nothing but worming tablets and excessive faith in their immune system. That is their choice and whilst we should deter gullible people from being pulled into their orbit, we should not coerce them. There is no free ride this time. They alone will face the consequences of their actions.

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Leap said:

I am still not convinced that the CDC was wrong to say that people could take masks off if they were jabbed earlier this year, despite the summer surge. 

At the end of the day it's a balance between the extra cases/hospitalisations/deaths due to people not wearing masks now, and the extra cases/hosp/deaths that would have occurred if the CDC had not said that vaccinated could remove masks. I kind of think that the latter is feasibly likely to be higher. Not only because fewer people would have been vaccinated as a direct result of that carrot, but also because it's a relatively divisive point among the centre/left (rational people), and that division would only feed the right-wing misinformation campaign.

I am of the belief that the CDC did not make this decision fully because it was medically sound. I'm sure there was a lot of political pressure to do so. Furthermore, they did this very sloppily. They didn't communicate the nuances of when and how you should still wear a mask even after people are fully vaccinated, and worse, they're fine with it being done on a fucking honor system. You cannot use an honor system when you have a large chuck of the populace saying they're not going to get vaccinated and are refusing to wear their masks. 

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Leap said:

I am still not convinced that the CDC was wrong to say that people could take masks off if they were jabbed earlier this year, despite the summer surge. 

I am, they done entirely fucked up

1 hour ago, Leap said:

At the end of the day it's a balance between the extra cases/hospitalisations/deaths due to people not wearing masks now, and the extra cases/hosp/deaths that would have occurred if the CDC had not said that vaccinated could remove masks. I kind of think that the latter is feasibly likely to be higher. Not only because fewer people would have been vaccinated as a direct result of that carrot, but also because it's a relatively divisive point among the centre/left (rational people), and that division would only feed the right-wing misinformation campaign.

The right wing misinformation campaign doesn't care, and they're using the CDC's change in view to show things anyway. They'll take whatever they need and  twist it. The only thing that will work at this point is mandatory vaccines and restrictions, because this carrot shit ain't working. 

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

U.S. over 84,000 Daily New Cases yesterday.......and climbing.

Cases up again these last two days in the UK, along with a drop in testing, after a drop in numbers of new ones over a few days.